Search

We aimed to estimate absenteeism due to substance use disorder among full-time employees.We used the 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health to identify a sample of individuals employed full time. We used a survey-weighted multivariable negative binomial model to evaluate the association between absenteeism and type of substance use disorder controlling for available demographic information.In the adjusted model, we estimated that opioid use without a disorder had the highest absenteeism for use, and polysubstance use disorder had the highest absenteeism among use disorders. In a hypothetical firm of 10,000 employees, we estimate $232,000 of lost wage value annually.Substance use is associated with absenteeism and presents a compelling argument for employers to promote programs that support treatment for employees and reduce downstream costs associated with absenteeism and turnover.

A total of 23 state Medicaid programs continue to restrict hepatitis C virus (HCV) medication access by liver disease or substance-use criteria, creating obstacles to HCV elimination and significant care disparities. Because public insurers often set precedents for private insurer coverage and clinician practice patterns, this study sought to analyze whether spillover occurs from state Medicaid HCV treatment restrictions to HCV screening and treatment rates in commercially insured individuals.Investigators analyzed 2014‒2017 commercial claims data across 48 U.S. states (721,961,965 person-months) and used an interrupted times series design to compare hepatitis C virus screening and treatment rates before and after state Medicaid HCV treatment policy changes, adjusting for state-level random effects, Medicaid expansion status, and state drug overdose incidence rates, in states that relaxed Medicaid policy over the study period. Analysis occurred during 2019‒2021.Hepatitis C virus screening rates among commercially insured individuals increased after the corresponding state Medicaid program relaxed HCV treatment policy. Among states that changed Medicaid policy, those that reduced fibrosis or both fibrosis and abstinence restrictions experienced increased HCV screening rates by the study end compared with states that changed only abstinence restrictions (rate ratio=1.29; 95% CI=1.15, 1.44; and rate ratio=1.32; 95% CI=1.17, 1.50, respectively). Similar patterns did not occur in HCV treatment rates, which declined after 2015 across groups.These data show that HCV screening rates increased among commercially insured individuals after the removal of Medicaid HCV treatment restrictions in the same state. This suggests that Medicaid treatment policies can spill over to affect health outcomes among commercially insured populations.

Purpose Metamodels are simplified approximations of more complex models that can be used as surrogates for the original models. Challenges in using metamodels for policy analysis arise when there are multiple correlated outputs of interest. We develop a framework for metamodeling with policy simulations to accommodate multivariate outcomes. Methods: We combine 2 algorithm adaptation methods—multitarget stacking and regression chain with maximum correlation—with different base learners including linear regression (LR), elastic net (EE) with second-order terms, Gaussian process regression (GPR), random forests (RFs), and neural networks. We optimize integrated models using variable selection and hyperparameter tuning. We compare the accuracy, efficiency, and interpretability of different approaches. As an example application, we develop metamodels to emulate a microsimulation model of testing and treatment strategies for hepatitis C in correctional settings. Results Output variables from the simulation model were correlated (average ρ = 0.58). Without multioutput algorithm adaptation methods, in-sample fit (measured by R2) ranged from 0.881 for LR to 0.987 for GPR. The multioutput algorithm adaptation method increased R2 by an average 0.002 across base learners. Variable selection and hyperparameter tuning increased R2 by 0.009. Simpler models such as LR, EE, and RF required minimal training and prediction time. LR and EE had advantages in model interpretability, and we considered methods for improving the interpretability of other models. Conclusions In our example application, the choice of base learner had the largest impact on R2; multioutput algorithm adaptation and variable selection and hyperparameter tuning had a modest impact. Although advantages and disadvantages of specific learning algorithms may vary across different modeling applications, our framework for metamodeling in policy analyses with multivariate outcomes has broad applicability to decision analysis in health and medicine.

Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) are shown to reduce opioid use and the risk of overdose. People with opioid use disorder (OUD) who exit inpatient medically managed withdrawal programs (detox) without initiating MOUD and linking to outpatient care have high rates of overdose. While detox encounters provide a theoretical opportunity for MOUD initiation, this is not ubiquitous in the United States. We used simulation modeling to estimate the population-level health effects and cost-effectiveness of a policy encouraging MOUD initiation during inpatient detox encounters.We employed a dynamic population state-transition model to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using detox programs as venues for initiating MOUD in Massachusetts, United States. We compared standard of care, where no detox patients initiate MOUD or link to outpatient MOUD providers, to strategies of offering MOUD to detox patients and linking those patients to outpatient MOUD.Budgetary impact to the Massachusetts health-care sector, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and total counts and percentage differences of fatal overdoses prevented.Initiating MOUD in detox with perfect linkage to outpatient MOUD would reduce fatal overdoses by 4.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.3-5.9], at an ICER of $56 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, compared with the standard of care. With moderate linkage, fatal overdoses would be reduced by 2.3% (95% CI= 1.2-3.1) with an ICER of $78 500 per QALY gained, compared with standard of care. Budgetary increase to Massachusetts health-care spending ranged from 0.5-1%.A simulation model indicates that initiation of medications for opioid use disorder and linkage policies among detox patients in Massachusetts, USA could prevent fatal opioid overdoses in the opioid use disorder population and would be cost-effective from a health-care sector perspective.

To estimate the number of treatment initiations, averted fatal opioid overdoses and the cost-effectiveness associated with offering buprenorphine-naloxone (buprenorphine) treatment on-site within existing syringe service programs (SSPs) in Massachusetts, USA.This was a cohort-based mathematical model and cost-effectiveness analysis. We derived model inputs from state and national surveillance data, clinical trials and observational cohort studies. We compared an intervention scenario where 30% of SSP clients initiated buprenorphine treatment on-site at least once annually to a status quo scenario where no buprenorphine was available on-site among community treatment providers in Massachusetts, 2020-30. In individuals with opioid use disorder (OUD) we assumed that 80% of SSP clients had recently injected drugs and that treatment within SSPs would have similar or improved retention compared with standard-of-care buprenorphine programs, but higher rates of active opioid use while in treatment.Number of treatment initiations (i.e. individuals began treatment on a medication for opioid use disorder or entered medically managed withdrawal), averted fatal opioid overdoses, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and life-time discounted costs from a health sector and a limited societal perspective.The status quo scenario resulted in 23 051 fatal overdoses and 1 511 613 treatment initiations over a 10-year simulation period. An intervention scenario with on-site SSP buprenorphine treatment averted 4797 (-20.8%) fatal opioid overdoses and resulted in 129 359 (+8.6%) additional treatment initiations compared with the status quo. The intervention scenario was the dominating scenario: providing OUD treatment through Massachusetts SSPs cost less (-$3612 per person) with patients accumulating more QALYs (0.2 per person) compared with the status quo scenario.Offering buprenorphine treatment on-site within syringe service programs has the potential to decrease fatal overdoses substantially, improve treatment engagement and save on costs.

BACKGROUND: The association between cost-sharing and receipt of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is unknown. METHODS: We constructed a cohort of 10,513 commercially insured individuals with a new diagnosis of opioid use disorder (OUD) and information on insurance cost-sharing in a large national de-identified claims database. We examined four cost-sharing measures: 1) pharmacy deductible; 2) medical service deductible; 3) pharmacy medication co-pay; and 4) medical office co-pay. We measured MOUD (naltrexone, buprenorphine, or methadone) initiation (within 14 days of diagnosis), engagement (second receipt within 34 days of first), and 6-month retention (continuous receipt without 14-day gap). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the association between cost-sharing and MOUD initiation, engagement, and retention. We calculated total out-of-pocket costs in the 30 days following MOUD initiation for each type of MOUD. RESULTS: Of 10,513 individuals with incident OUD, 1,202 (11%) initiated MOUD, 742 (7%) engaged, and 253 (2%) were retained in MOUD at six months. A high ($1,000+) medical deductible was associated with a lower odds of initiation compared to no deductible (odds ratio: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.74-0.98). We found no significant associations between other cost-sharing measures for initiation, engagement, or retention. Median initial 30-day out-of-pocket costs ranged from $100 for methadone to $710 for extended-release naltrexone. CONCLUSION: Among insurance plan cost-sharing measures, only medical services deductible showed an association with decreased MOUD initiation. Policy and benefit design should consider ways to reduce cost barriers to initiation and retention in MOUD.

Background Undernutrition is the leading cause of tuberculosis (TB) in India and is associated with increased TB mortality. Undernutrition also decreases quality of life and economic productivity. Methods We assessed the cost-effectiveness of providing augmented rations to undernourished Indians through the government’s Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). We used Markov state transition models to simulate disease progression and mortality among undernourished individuals in 3 groups: general population, household contacts (HHCs) of people living with TB, and persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The models calculate costs and outcomes (TB cases, TB deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) associated with a 2600 kcal/day diet for adults with body mass index (BMI) of 16–18.4 kg/m2 until they attain a BMI of 20 kg/m2 compared to a status quo scenario wherein TPDS rations are unchanged. We employed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to test result robustness. Results Over 5 years, augmented rations could avert 81% of TB cases and 88% of TB deaths among currently undernourished Indians. Correspondingly, this intervention could forestall 78% and 48% of TB cases and prevent 88% and 70% of deaths among undernourished HHCs and persons with HIV, respectively. Augmented rations resulted in 10-fold higher resolution of undernutrition and were highly cost-effective with (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] of $470/DALY averted). ICER was lower for HHCs ($360/DALY averted) and the HIV population ($250/DALY averted). Conclusions A robust nutritional intervention would be highly cost-effective in reducing TB incidence and mortality while reducing chronic undernutrition in India.

Early identification of patients at risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is crucial for appropriate triage and determination of need for closer monitoring. Few studies have examined laboratory trends in COVID-19 infection and sought to quantify the degree to which laboratory values affect mortality. We conducted a retrospective cohort (n = 407) study of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 early in the course of the pandemic, from March 16th to April 8th, 2020 and compared baseline to repeat laboratory testing 72 hours into admission. The primary outcome was death. We found that rises of 25 mg/L C-reactive protein, 50 units/L lactate dehydrogenase, and 100 ng/mL ferritin were associated with 23%, 28%, and 1% increased odds of death, respectively. In contrast, changes in fibrinogen, D-dimer, white blood cell count, and creatinine in the first few days of hospital admission were not associated with mortality. These quantitative findings may assist clinicians in determining the risk of potential clinical decline in patients with COVID-19 and influence early management.

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted access to and uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) care services in the United States. It is unknown how substantially the pandemic will impact long-term HCV-related outcomes. Methods We used a microsimulation to estimate the 10-year impact of COVID-19 disruptions in healthcare delivery on HCV outcomes including identified infections, linkage to care, treatment initiation and completion, cirrhosis, and liver-related death. We modeled hypothetical scenarios consisting of an 18-month pandemic-related disruption in HCV care starting in March 2020 followed by varying returns to pre-pandemic rates of screening, linkage, and treatment through March 2030 and compared them to a counterfactual scenario in which there was no COVID-19 pandemic or disruptions in care. We also performed alternate scenario analyses in which the pandemic disruption lasted for 12 and 24 months. Results Compared to the “no pandemic” scenario, in the scenario in which there is no return to pre-pandemic levels of HCV care delivery, we estimate 1060 fewer identified cases, 21 additional cases of cirrhosis, and 16 additional liver-related deaths per 100 000 people. Only 3% of identified cases initiate treatment and Conclusions A recommitment to the HCV epidemic in the United States that involves additional resources coupled with aggressive efforts to screen, link, and treat people with HCV is needed to overcome the COVID-19-related disruptions.

Background Periodic surveillance of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) care cascade is important for tracking progress toward HCV elimination goals, identifying gaps in care, and prioritizing resource allocation. In the pre-direct-acting antiviral (DAA) era, it was estimated that 50% of HCV-infected individuals were diagnosed and that 16% had been prescribed interferon-based therapy. Since then, few studies utilizing nationally representative data from the DAA era have been conducted in the United States. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study to describe the HCV care cascade in the United States using the Optum de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database to identify a nationally representative sample of commercially insured beneficiaries between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2019. We estimated the number of HCV-viremic individuals in Optum based on national HCV prevalence estimates and determined the proportion who had: (1) recorded diagnosis of HCV infection, (2) recorded HCV diagnosis and underwent HCV RNA testing, (3) DAA treatment dispensed, and (4) assessment for cure. Results Among 120,311 individuals estimated to have HCV viremia in Optum during the study period, 109,233 (90.8%; 95% CI, 90.6%–91.0%) had a recorded diagnosis of HCV infection, 75,549 (62.8%; 95% CI, 62.5%–63.1%) had a recorded diagnosis of HCV infection and underwent HCV RNA testing, 41,102 (34.2%; 95% CI, 33.9%–34.4%) were dispensed DAA treatment, and 25,760 (21.4%; 95% CI, 21.2%–21.6%) were assessed for cure. Conclusions Gaps remain between the delivery of HCV-related care and national treatment goals among commercially insured adults. Efforts are needed to increase HCV treatment among people diagnosed with chronic HCV infection to achieve national elimination goals.

ImportanceMost prisons and jails in the US discontinue medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) upon incarceration and do not initiate MOUD prior to release.ObjectiveTo model the association of MOUD access during incarceration and at release with population-level overdose mortality and OUD-related treatment costs in Massachusetts.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis economic evaluation used simulation modeling and cost-effectiveness with costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) discounted at 3% to compare MOUD treatment strategies in a corrections cohort and an open cohort representing individuals with OUD in Massachusetts. Data were analyzed between July 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022.ExposuresThree strategies were compared: (1) no MOUD provided during incarceration or at release, (2) extended-release (XR) naltrexone offered only at release from incarceration, and (3) all 3 MOUDs (naltrexone, buprenorphine, and methadone) offered at intake.Main Outcomes and MeasuresTreatment starts and retention, fatal overdoses, life-years and QALYs, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).ResultsAmong 30 000 simulated incarcerated individuals with OUD, offering no MOUD was associated with 40 927 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39 001-42 082) MOUD treatment starts over a 5-year period and 1259 (95% UI, 1130-1323) overdose deaths after 5 years. Over 5 years, offering XR-naltrexone at release led to 10 466 (95% UI, 8515-12 201) additional treatment starts, 40 (95% UI, 16-50) fewer overdose deaths, and 0.08 (95% UI, 0.05-0.11) QALYs gained per person, at an incremental cost of $2723 (95% UI, $141-$5244) per person. In comparison, offering all 3 MOUDs at intake led to 11 923 (95% UI, 10 861-12 911) additional treatment starts, compared with offering no MOUD, 83 (95% UI, 72-91) fewer overdose deaths, and 0.12 (95% UI, 0.10-0.17) QALYs per person gained, at an incremental cost of $852 (95% UI, $14-$1703) per person. Thus, XR-naltrexone only was a dominated strategy (both less effective and more costly) and the ICER of all 3 MOUDs compared with no MOUD was $7252 (95% UI, $140-$10 018) per QALY. Among everyone with OUD in Massachusetts, XR-naltrexone only averted 95 overdose deaths over 5 years (95% UI, 85-169)—a 0.9% decrease in state-level overdose mortality—while the all-MOUD strategy averted 192 overdose deaths (95% UI, 156-200)—a 1.8% decrease.Conclusions and RelevanceThe findings of this simulation-modeling economic study suggest that offering any MOUD to incarcerated individuals with OUD would prevent overdose deaths and that offering all 3 MOUDs would prevent more deaths and save money compared with an XR-naltrexone–only strategy.

ImportanceUS primary care practitioners (PCPs) are the largest clinical workforce, but few provide addiction care. Primary care is a practical place to expand addiction services, including buprenorphine and harm reduction kits, yet the clinical outcomes and health care sector costs are unknown.ObjectiveTo estimate the long-term clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of integrated buprenorphine and harm reduction kits in primary care for people who inject opioids.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIn this modeling study, the Reducing Infections Related to Drug Use Cost-Effectiveness (REDUCE) microsimulation model, which tracks serious injection-related infections, overdose, hospitalization, and death, was used to examine the following treatment strategies: (1) PCP services with external referral to addiction care (status quo), (2) PCP services plus onsite buprenorphine prescribing with referral to offsite harm reduction kits (BUP), and (3) PCP services plus onsite buprenorphine prescribing and harm reduction kits (BUP plus HR). Model inputs were derived from clinical trials and observational cohorts, and costs were discounted annually at 3%. The cost-effectiveness was evaluated over a lifetime from the modified health care sector perspective, and sensitivity analyses were performed to address uncertainty. Model simulation began January 1, 2021, and ran for the entire lifetime of the cohort.Main Outcomes and MeasuresLife-years (LYs), hospitalizations, mortality from sequelae (overdose, severe skin and soft tissue infections, and endocarditis), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).ResultsThe simulated cohort included 2.25 million people and reflected the age and gender of US persons who inject opioids. Status quo resulted in 6.56 discounted LYs at a discounted cost of $203 500 per person (95% credible interval, $203 000-$222 000). Each strategy extended discounted life expectancy: BUP by 0.16 years and BUP plus HR by 0.17 years. Compared with status quo, BUP plus HR reduced sequelae-related mortality by 33%. The mean discounted lifetime cost per person of BUP and BUP plus HR were more than that of the status quo strategy. The dominating strategy was BUP plus HR. Compared with status quo, BUP plus HR was cost-effective (ICER, $34 400 per LY). During a 5-year time horizon, BUP plus HR cost an individual PCP practice approximately $13 000.Conclusions and RelevanceThis modeling study of integrated addiction service in primary care found improved clinical outcomes and modestly increased costs. The integration of addiction service into primary care practices should be a health care system priority.

Achieving global elimination of hepatitis C virus requires a substantial scale-up of testing. Point-of-care HCV viral load assays are available as an alternative to laboratory-based assays to promote access in hard to reach or marginalized populations. The diagnostic performance and lower limit of detection are important attributes of these new assays for both diagnosis and test of cure. Therefore, our objective was to determine an acceptable LLoD for detectable HCV viraemia as a test for cure, 12weeks post-treatment (SVR12). We assembled a global data set of patients with detectable viraemia at SVR12 from observational databases from 9 countries (Egypt, the United States, United Kingdom, Georgia, Ukraine, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan, Mozambique) and two pharmaceutical-sponsored clinical trial registries. We examined the distribution of HCV viral load at SVR12 and presented the 90th, 95th, 97th and 99th percentiles. We used logistic regression to assess characteristics associated with low-level virological treatment failure (defined as

Academic medical centers could play an important role in increasing access to and uptake of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, especially in Black and Latino communities that have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. This article describes the vaccination program developed by the Boston Medical Center (BMC) health system (New England's largest safety-net health system), its affiliated community health centers (CHCs), and community partners. The program was based on a conceptual framework for community interventions and aimed to increase equitable access to vaccination in the hardest-hit communities through community-based sites in churches and community centers, mobile vaccination events, and vaccination on the BMC campus. Key strategies included a communication campaign featuring trusted messengers, a focus on health equity, established partnerships with community leaders and CHCs, and strong collaboration with local health departments and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to ensure equitable allocation of the vaccine supply. Process factors involved the use of robust analytics relying on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The vaccination program administered 109 938 first doses, with 94 703 (86%) given at community sites and 2466 (2%) given at mobile sites. Mobile vaccination events were key in reaching younger people living in locations with the highest SVIs. Challenges included the need for a robust operational infrastructure and mistrust of the health system given the long history of economic disinvestment in the surrounding community. The BMC model could serve as a blueprint for other medical centers interested in implementing programs aimed at increasing vaccine uptake during a pandemic and in developing an infrastructure to address other health-related disparities.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Background A health department survey revealed nearly half employ laboratory-based HIV and HCV testing (LBT) over rapid testing (RT) in nonhospital settings such as drug detoxification centers. LBT has higher sensitivity for acute HIV infection compared to RT but LBT is not point of care and may result in fewer diagnoses due to loss to follow-up before result delivery. Methods We conducted a randomized trial comparing real-world case notification of RT (Orasure) vs LBT (HIV Combo Ag/Ab EIA, HCV EIA) for HIV and HCV at a drug detoxification center. Primary outcome was receipt of test results within 2 weeks. Results Among 341 individuals screened (11/2016–7/2017), 200 met inclusion criteria; 58% injected drugs and 31% shared needles in the previous 6 months. Of the 200 randomized, 98 received RT and 102 LBT. Among all participants, 0.5% were positive for HIV and 48% for HCV; 96% received test results in the RT arm and 42% in the LBT arm (odds ratio, 28.72; 95% confidence interval, 10.27–80.31). Real-world case notification was 95% and 93% for HIV and HCV RT, respectively, compared to 42% for HIV and HCV LBT. Conclusions RT has higher real-world case notification than LBT at drug detoxification centers. Clinical trials registration: NCT02869776.

BACKGROUND: Federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) serve diverse communities in the United States (U.S.) and could function as important venues to diagnose and treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. OBJECTIVE: To determine HCV testing proportion and factors associated with treatment initiation, and treatment outcomes in a large sample of FQHCs around the U.S. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records of three hundred and forty-one FQHC clinical sites participating in the OCHIN network in 19 U.S. states. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) seen between January 01, 2012, and June 30, 2017. MAIN MEASURES: HCV testing proportion, stratified by diagnosis of opioid use disorder (OUD); treatment initiation rates; and sustained virologic response (SVR), defined as undetectable HCV RNA 6 months after treatment initiation. KEY RESULTS: Of the 1,508,525 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 88,384 (5.9%) were tested for HCV, and 8694 (9.8%) of individuals tested had reactive results. Of the 6357 with HCV RNA testing, 4092 (64.4%) had detectable RNA. Twelve percent of individuals with chronic HCV and evaluable data initiated treatment. Of those, 87% reached SVR. Having commercial insurance (aOR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.46–3.05), older age (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06–1.09), and being Hispanic/Latino (aOR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.38–2.53) or Asian/Pacific Islander (aOR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.46–4.19) were independently associated with higher odds of treatment initiation after multivariable adjustment. In contrast, women (aOR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.60–0.97) and the uninsured (aOR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09–0.25) were less likely to initiate treatment. Only 8% of individuals with chronic HCV were tested for HIV, and 15% of individuals with identified OUD were tested for HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than 20% of individuals with identified OUD were tested for HCV. SVR was lower than findings in other real-world cohorts. Measures to improve outcomes should be considered with the expansion of HCV management into community clinics. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11606-020-05701-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Discordant elevations of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) ribonucleic acid (RNA) in chronically treated patients known as 'CSF escape' may present as acute encephalitis. Infectious encephalitis caused by herpes simplex virus (HSV) and other neurotropic viruses have been identified as potential triggers of anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) encephalitis. Autoantibody-mediated encephalitis has been infrequently reported in HIV infected patients and may mimic HIV encephalitis. We report two adults infected with HIV presenting with encephalopathy and seizures. Case 1 had a monophasic encephalopathy with detection of NMDAR antibodies in the context of HIV CSF escape. There was a clinical response to immunotherapy and anti-retroviral therapy adjustment. Case 2 initially presented in non-convulsive status epilepticus associated with HIV CSF escape. He responded to treatment with anti-epileptic drugs and anti-retroviral therapy alteration, but had two further neurological relapses. NMDAR antibodies were detected during the relapses and a clinical response was observed following treatment with immunotherapy. Clinicians should consider autoimmune encephalitis in HIV infected patients presenting with encephalopathy and seizures, particularly in cases with concomitant HIV CSF escape.

Recent randomized trials suggest that interleukin-6 inhibitors like tocilizumab have mortality benefit for patients with severe coronavirus disease-2019. We employed a decision tree to investigate their cost-effectiveness and found that tocilizumab is cost-effective with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $16520 per quality-adjusted life year gained (95% credible interval 10760-51530).

ImportanceCDC guidance emphasizes the importance of in-person education for students in grades kindergarten to 12 (K-12) during the COVID-19 pandemic. CDC encourage weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing of asymptomatic, unvaccinated students and staff (“screening”) to reduce infection risk and provide data about in-school SARS-CoV-2 prevalence where community incidence is high. The financial costs of screening assays have been described, but the human resource requirements at the school and district level to implement a SARS-CoV-2 screening program are not well known.ObjectiveTo quantify the resources required to implement a screening program in K-12 schools.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsA consortium of Massachusetts public K-12 schools was formed to implement and evaluate a range of SARS-CoV-2 screening approaches. Participating districts were surveyed weekly about their programs, including: type of assay used, individual vs. pooled screening, approaches to return of results and deconvolution (identification of positive individual specimens) of positive pools, number and type of personnel implementing the screening program, and hours spent on program implementation.Main Outcomes and MeasuresCosts, resource utilizationResultsIn 21 participating districts, over 21 weeks from January to June 2021, the positivity rate was 0.0%-0.21% among students and 0.0%-0.13% among educators/staff, and 4 out of 21 (19%) districts had at least one classroom transition to remote learning at any point due to a positive case. The average weekly cost to implement a screening program, including assay and personnel costs, was $17.00 per person tested; this was $46.68 for individual screenings and $15.61 for pooled screenings. The total weekly costs by district ranged from $1,644-$93,486, and districts screened between 58 and 3,675 people per week. The reported number of personnel working per week ranged from 1-5 to >50, and the total number of hours worked by all personnel ranged from 5-10 to >50.Conclusion and RelevanceThe human resources required to implement SARS-CoV-2 screening in Massachusetts public K-12 schools were substantial. Where screening is recommended for the 2021-22 school year due to high COVID-19 incidence (e.g., where vaccination uptake is low and/or more infectious variants predominate), understanding the human resources required to implement screening will assist districts policymakers in planning.

Background and aims Opioid-related overdose death rates continue to rise in the United States, especially in racial/ethnic minority communities. Our objective was to determine if US municipalities with high percentages of non-white residents have equitable access to the overdose antidote naloxone distributed by community-based organizations. Methods We used community-based naloxone data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Rhode Island Non-Pharmacy Naloxone Distribution program for 2016-2018. We obtained publicly available opioid-related overdose death data from Massachusetts and the Office of the State Medical Examiners in Rhode Island. We defined the naloxone coverage ratio as the number of community-based naloxone kits received by a resident in a municipality divided by the number of opioid-related overdose deaths among residents, updated annually. We used a Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations to analyze the relationship between the municipal racial/ethnic composition and naloxone coverage ratio. To account for the potential nonlinear relationship between naloxone coverage ratio and race/ethnicity, we created B-splines for the percentage of non-white residents; and for a secondary analysis examining the percentage of African American/Black and Hispanic residents. The models were adjusted for the percentage of residents in poverty, urbanicity, state, and population size. Results Between 2016-2018, the annual naloxone coverage ratios range was 0-135. There was no difference in naloxone coverage ratios among municipalities with varying percentages of non-white residents in our multivariable analysis. In the secondary analysis, municipalities with higher percentages of African American/Black residents had higher naloxone coverage ratios, independent of other factors. Naloxone coverage did not differ by percentage of Hispanic residents. Conclusions There appear to be no municipal-level racial/ethnic inequities in naloxone distribution in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, USA.

Racial/ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionate opioid-related overdose death rates in recent years. In this context, we examined inequities in community-based naloxone access across racial/ethnic groups in Massachusetts.We used data from: the Massachusetts Department of Public Health on community-based overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs; the Massachusetts Office of the Chief Medical Examiner on opioid-related overdose deaths, and; the United States Census American Community Survey for regional demographic/socioeconomic details to estimate community populations by race/ethnicity and racial segregation between African American/Black and white residents. Race/ethnicity groups included in the analysis were African American/Black (non-Hispanic), Hispanic, white (non-Hispanic), and "other" (non-Hispanic). We evaluated racial/ethnic differences in naloxone distribution across regions in Massachusetts and neighborhoods in Boston descriptively and spatially, plotting the race/ethnicity-specific number of kits per opioid-related overdose death per jurisdiction. Lastly, we constructed generalized estimating equations models with a negative binomial distribution to compare the race/ethnicity-specific naloxone distribution rate by OEND programs.From 2016-2019, the median annual rate of naloxone kits received from OEND programs in Massachusetts per racial/ethnicity group ranged between 160 and 447 per 100,000. In a multivariable analysis, we found that the naloxone distribution rates for racial/ethnic minorities were lower than the rate for white residents. We also found naloxone was more likely to be distributed in racially segregated communities than non-segregated communities.We identified racial/ethnic inequities in naloxone receipt by individuals in Massachusetts. Additional resources focused on designing and implementing OEND programs for racial/ethnic minorities are warranted to ensure equitable access to naloxone.

ImportanceIn 2021, the state of Rhode Island distributed 10 000 additional naloxone kits compared with the prior year through partnerships with community-based organizations.ObjectiveTo compare various strategies to increase naloxone distribution through community-based programs in Rhode Island to identify one most effective and efficient strategy in preventing opioid overdose deaths (OODs).Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIn this decision analytical model study conducted from January 2016 to December 2022, a spatial microsimulation model with an integrated decision tree was developed and calibrated to compare the outcomes of alternative strategies for distributing 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually among all individuals at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island.InterventionsDistribution of 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually, focusing on people who inject drugs, people who use illicit opioids and stimulants, individuals at various levels of risk for opioid overdose, or people who misuse prescription opioids vs no additional kits (status quo). Two expanded distribution implementation approaches were considered: one consistent with the current spatial distribution patterns for each distribution program type (supply-based approach) and one consistent with the current spatial distribution of individuals in each of the risk groups, assuming that programs could direct the additional kits to new geographic areas if required (demand-based approach).Main Outcomes and MeasuresWitnessed OODs, cost per OOD averted (efficiency), geospatial health inequality measured by the Theil index, and between-group variance for OOD rates.ResultsA total of 63 131 simulated individuals were estimated to be at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island based on current population data. With the supply-based approach, prioritizing additional naloxone kits to people who use illicit drugs averted more witnessed OODs by an estimated mean of 18.9% (95% simulation interval [SI], 13.1%-30.7%) annually. Expanded naloxone distribution using the demand-based approach and focusing on people who inject drugs had the best outcomes across all scenarios, averting an estimated mean of 25.3% (95% SI, 13.1%-37.6%) of witnessed OODs annually, at the lowest mean incremental cost of $27 312 per OOD averted. Other strategies were associated with fewer OODs averted at higher costs but showed similar patterns of improved outcomes and lower unit costs if kits could be reallocated to areas with greater need. The demand-based approach reduced geospatial inequality in OOD rates in all scenarios compared with the supply-based approach and status quo.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this decision analytical model study, variations in the effectiveness, efficiency, and health inequality of the different naloxone distribution expansion strategies and approaches were identified. Future efforts should be prioritized for people at highest risk for overdose (those who inject drugs or use illicit drugs) and redirected toward areas with the greatest need. These findings may inform future naloxone distribution priority settings.

Access to and uptake of evidence-based treatment for substance use disorder, specifically opioid use disorder (OUD), are limited despite the high death toll from drug overdose in the United States in recent years. Patient perceived barriers to evidence-based treatment after completion of short-term inpatient medically managed withdrawal programs (detox) have not been well studied. The purpose of the current study is to elicit patients' perspectives on challenges to transition to treatment, including medications for OUD (MOUD), after detox and potential solutions.We conducted semi-structured interviews (N = 24) at a detox center (2018-2019) to explore patients' perspectives on obstacles to treatment. The study managed the data in NVivo and we used content analysis to identify themes.Patients' characteristics included the following: 54 % male; mean age 37 years; self-identified as White 67 %, Black 13 %, Latinx 8 %, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 4 %, and other 8 %; heroin use in the past 3 months 67 %; and ever injecting drugs 71 %. Patients identified the following barriers: 1) lack of continuity of care; 2) limited number of detox and residential treatment program beds; 3) unstable housing; and 4) lack of options when choosing a treatment pathway. Solutions proposed by participants included: 1) increase low-barrier access to community MOUD; 2) add case managers at the detox center to establish continuity of care after discharge; 3) increase assistance with housing; and 4) encourage patient participation in treatment decisions.Patients identified lack of continuity of care, especially care coordination, as a major barrier to substance use treatment. Increasing treatment utilization, including MOUD, necessitates a multimodal approach to continuity of care, low-barrier access to MOUD, and support to address unstable housing. Patients want care that incorporates options and respect for. individualized preferences and needs.

SUMMARYWith the recent emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S., many states are seeing rising cases and hospitalizations after a period of steady decline. As We used theCOVID-19 Simulator, an interactive online tool that utilizes a validated mathematical model, to simulate the trajectory of COVID-19 at the state level in the U.S. COVID-19 Simulator’s forecasts are updated weekly and included in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ensemble model. We employed our model to analyze scenarios where the Delta variant becomes dominant in every state.The combination of high transmissibility of the Delta variant, low vaccination coverage in several regions, and more relaxed attitude towards social distancing is expected to result in as surge in COVID-19 deaths in at least 40 states. In several states – including Idaho, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Washington, and West Virginia – the projected daily deaths in 2021 could exceed the prior peak daily deaths under current social distancing behavior and vaccination rate. The number of COVID-19 deaths across the U.S. could exceed 1600 per day.Between August 1, 2021, and December 31, 2021, there could be additional 157,000 COVID-19 deaths across the U.S. Of note, our model projected approximately 20,700 COVID-19 deaths in Texas, 16,000 in California, 12,400 in Florida, 12,000 in North Carolina, and 9,300 in Georgia during this period. In contrast, the projected number of COVID-19 deaths would remain below 200 in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, and Rhode Island.We project COVID-19 deaths based on the current vaccination rates and social distancing behavior. Our hope is that the findings of this report serve a warning sign and people revert to wearing masks and maintain social distancing to reduce COVID-19 associated deaths in the U.S. Our projections are updated weekly by incorporating vaccination rates and social distancing measures in each state; the latest results can be found at theCOVID-19 Simulatorwebsite.

BackgroundWhile CDC guidance for K-12 schools recommends indoor masking regardless of vaccination status, final decisions about masking in schools will be made at the local and state level. The impact of the removal of mask restrictions, however, on COVID-19 outcomes for elementary students, educators/staff, and their households is not well known.MethodsWe used a previously published agent-based dynamic transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 in K-12 schools to simulate an elementary school with 638 students across 12 scenarios: combinations of three viral infectiousness levels (reflecting wild-type virus, alpha variant, and delta variant) and four student vaccination levels (0%, 25%, 50% and 70% coverage). For each scenario, we varied observed community COVID-19 incidence (0 to 50 cases/100,000 people/day) and mitigation effectiveness (0-100% reduction to in-school secondary attack rate), and evaluated two outcomes over a 30 day period: (1) the probability of at least one in-school transmission, and (2) average increase in total infections among students, educators/staff, and their household members associated with moving from more to less intensive mitigation measures.ResultsOver 30 days in the simulated elementary school, the probability of at least one in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the number of estimated additional infections in the immediate school community associated with changes in mitigation measures varied widely. In one scenario with the delta variant and no student vaccination, assuming that baseline mitigation measures of simple ventilation and handwashing reduce the secondary attack rate by 40%, if decision-makers seek to keep the monthly probability of an in-school transmission below 50%, additional mitigation (e.g., masking) would need to be added at a community incidence of approximately 2/100,000/day. Once students are vaccinated, thresholds shift substantially higher.LimitationsThe interpretation of model results should be limited by the uncertainty in many of the parameters, including the effectiveness of individual mitigation interventions and vaccine efficacy against the delta variant, and the limited scope of the model beyond the school community. Additionally, the assumed case detection rate (33% of cases detected) may be too high in areas with decreased testing capacity.ConclusionDespite the assumption of high adult vaccination, the risks of both in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and resulting infections among students, educators/staff, and their household members remain high when the delta variant predominates and students are unvaccinated. Mitigation measures or vaccinations for students can substantially reduce these risks. These findings underscore the potential role for responsive plans, where mitigation is deployed based on local COVID-19 incidence and vaccine uptake.

Summary Background The syndemic of injection drug use and serious injection-related infections is leading to increasing mortality in the USA. Although outpatient treatment with medications for opioid use disorder reduces overdose risk and recurrent infections, hospitalisation remains common. We evaluated the clinical impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of hospital-based strategies to address the US opioid epidemic. Methods We developed a microsimulation model to compare the cost-effectiveness of: standard hospital care—detoxification for opioids, no addiction consult service (status quo); expanded inpatient prescribing of medications for opioid use disorder, including bridge prescriptions (ie, medication until they can see an outpatient provider) when possible (medications for opioid use disorder with bridge); implementation of addiction consult services within the hospital (addiction consult services alone); and a combined medication for opioid use disorder with addiction consult services strategy (combined). We used clinical trials and observational cohorts to inform model inputs. Outcomes were life-years, discounted costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, hospitalisations, and deaths. We did deterministic sensitivity analyses on key model inputs related to costs and sequelae of drug use and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to further address uncertainty. Findings Among people who inject opioids in the USA, we estimated that expanding medications for opioid use disorder with bridge prescriptions would reduce hospitalisations and overdose deaths by 3·2% and 3·6%, respectively, and the combination of expanded medications with opioid use disorder along with addiction consult sevices would reduce hospitalisations and overdoses by 5·2% and 6·6%, respectively, compared with the status quo. Mean lifetime costs ranged from US$731 400 (95% credible interval 447 911–859 189 for the medications for opioid use disorder strategy) to $741 200 (470 930–868 551 for the combined strategy) per person. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per life-year gained, medications for opioid use disorder with bridge and combined strategies were cost-effective ($7600 and $14 300, respectively). A scenario that assumed ideal access to harm reduction services came to the same conclusions as the base case and our results were robust in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Interpretation The combined interventions of expanding hospital-based prescribing of medications for opioid use disorder and implementing addiction consult services could improve life expectancy, be cost-effective, and could be the basis for a comprehensive hospital-based strategy for addressing the opioid epidemic in the USA and countries with similar opioid epidemics. Funding National Institute on Drug Abuse and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Background Untreated opioid use disorder (OUD) affects the care of HIV/HCV co-infected people who inject opioids. Despite active injection opioid use, there is evidence of increasing engagement in HIV care and adherence to HIV medications among HIV/HCV co-infected persons. However, less than one-half of this population is offered HCV treatment onsite. Treatment for OUD is also rare and largely occurs offsite. Integrating buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX) into onsite care for HIV/HCV co-infected persons may improve outcomes, but the clinical impact and costs are unknown. We evaluated the clinical impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of integrating (BUP-NX) into onsite HIV/HCV treatment compared with the status quo of offsite referral for medications for OUD. Methods We used a Monte Carlo microsimulation of HCV to compare two strategies for people who inject opioids: 1) standard HIV care with onsite HCV treatment and referral to offsite OUD care (status quo) and 2) standard HIV care with onsite HCV and BUP-NX treatment (integrated care). Both strategies assume that all individuals are already in HIV care. Data from national databases, clinical trials, and cohorts informed model inputs. Outcomes included mortality, HCV reinfection, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs (2017 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results Integrated care reduced HCV reinfections by 7%, cases of cirrhosis by 1%, and liver-related deaths by 3%. Compared to the status quo, this strategy also resulted in an estimated 11/1,000 fewer non-liver attributable deaths at one year and 28/1,000 fewer of these deaths at five years, at a cost-effectiveness ratio of $57,100/QALY. Integrated care remained cost-effective in sensitivity analyses that varied the proportion of the population actively injecting opioids, availability of BUP-NX, and quality of life weights. Conclusions Integrating BUP-NX for OUD into treatment for HIV/HCV co-infected adults who inject opioids increases life expectancy and is cost-effective at a $100,000/QALY threshold.

Background and aims Despite the growing opioid overdose crisis, medication treatment for opioid use disorder remains uncommon. The comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine and naltrexone treatment in reducing overdose and the comparative risks of discontinuing treatment in the real world, remain uncertain. Our aim was to examine the effectiveness of medications for opioid use disorder in preventing opioid-related overdose. Design Retrospective cohort study Setting United States. Patients 46,846 commercially insured individuals diagnosed with opioid use disorder and initiating medication treatment between 2010 and 2016. Measurements Opioid-related overdose identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions. Findings In our sample, 1386 individuals were prescribed extended-release injectable naltrexone (median filled prescriptions = 9 months), 7782 were prescribed oral naltrexone (5 months), and 40,441 were prescribed buprenorphine (19 months) at least once during follow-up. Individuals receiving buprenorphine therapy were at significantly reduced risk of opioid-related overdose compared to no treatment (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.40, 95% CI 0.35−0.46), while a significant association was not observed in extended-release injectable (HR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.42–1.31) or oral (HR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.71–1.22) naltrexone. We found no association with opioid overdose within four weeks of discontinuation of any medication. Conclusion Among commercially-insured patients who initiate medications for opioid use disorder, buprenorphine, but not naltrexone, was associated with lower risk of overdose during active treatment compared to post-discontinuation. More research is needed to understand the benefits and risks unique to each treatment option to better tailor therapies to patients with opioid use disorder.

Background and aims While prescribed and illicit opioid use are primary drivers of the national surges in overdose deaths, opioid overdose deaths in which stimulants are also present are increasing in the U.S. We determined the social determinants and sociodemographic factors associated with opioid-only versus polysubstance opioid overdose deaths in Massachusetts. Particular attention was focused on the role of stimulants in opioid overdose deaths. Methods We analyzed all opioid-related overdose deaths from 2014 to 2015 in an individually-linked population database in Massachusetts. We used linked postmortem toxicology data to identify drugs present at the time of death. We constructed a multinomial logistic regression model to identify factors associated with three mutually exclusive overdose death groups based on toxicological results: opioid-related deaths with (1) opioids only present, (2) opioids and other substances not including stimulants, and (3) opioids and stimulants with or without other substances. Results Between 2014 and 2015, there were 2,244 opioid-related overdose deaths in Massachusetts that had accompanying toxicology results. Toxicology reports indicated that 17% had opioids only, 36% had opioids plus stimulants, and 46% had opioids plus another non-stimulant substance. Persons older than 24 years, non-rural residents, those with comorbid mental illness, non-Hispanic black residents, and persons with recent homelessness were more likely than their counterparts to die with opioids and stimulants than opioids alone. Conclusions Polysubstance opioid overdose is increasingly common in the US. Addressing modifiable social determinants of health, including barriers to mental health services and homelessness, is important to reduce polysubstance use and overdose deaths.

To estimate the clinical effects and cost-effectiveness of universal prenatal hepatitis C screening, and to calculate potential life expectancy, quality of life, and health care costs associated with universal prenatal hepatitis C screening and linkage to treatment.Using a stochastic individual-level microsimulation model, we simulated the lifetimes of 250 million pregnant women matched at baseline with the U.S. childbearing population on age, injection drug use behaviors, and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection status. Modeled outcomes included hepatitis C diagnosis, treatment and cure, lifetime health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing universal prenatal hepatitis C screening to current practice. We modeled whether neonates exposed to maternal HCV at birth were identified as such.Pregnant women with hepatitis C infection lived 1.21 years longer and had 16% lower HCV-attributable mortality with universal prenatal hepatitis C screening, which had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,000 per QALY gained compared with current practice. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below $100,000 per QALY gained in most sensitivity analyses; notable exceptions included incremental cost-effectiveness ratios above $100,000 when assuming mean time to cirrhosis of 70 years, a cost greater than $500,000 per false positive diagnosis, or population HCV infection prevalence below 0.16%. Universal prenatal hepatitis C screening increased identification of neonates exposed to HCV at birth from 44% to 92%.In our model, universal prenatal hepatitis C screening improves health outcomes in women with HCV infection, improves identification of HCV exposure in neonates born at risk, and is cost-effective.