36 results on '"Benito Oterino, María Belén"'
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2. Statement of Peer Review
- Author
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, primary, Fernández Torres, José, additional, García Blanco, Rosa María, additional, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, additional, Manso Callejo, Miguel Ángel, additional, and Vázquez Hoehne, Antonio, additional
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Temporal and spatial evolution of the 2021 eruption in the Tajogaite volcano (Cumbre Vieja rift zone, La Palma, Canary Islands) from geophysical and geodetic parameter analyses
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, Alvarado, Guillermo E., Marchamalo Sacristán, Miguel, Rejas Ayuga, Juan Gregorio, Murphy, Patrick, Franco Blanco, Rebeca, Castro, Diego, García Lanchares, Carlos, Sanchez, J., Benito Oterino, María Belén, Alvarado, Guillermo E., Marchamalo Sacristán, Miguel, Rejas Ayuga, Juan Gregorio, Murphy, Patrick, Franco Blanco, Rebeca, Castro, Diego, García Lanchares, Carlos, and Sanchez, J.
- Abstract
The eruption of the Tajogaite volcano in 2021, in the Cumbre Vieja rift zone (La Palma, Canary Islands), is the most recent but also the most damaging and longest-lasting eruption on the island since historical records began. We analyzed geophysical parameters (seismicity, surface deformation, thermal anomalies, and volcanic activity) with the aim of reconstructing the temporal development of the magma plumbing system. The seismic sequence (> 9000 events, mbLg ≤ 5.0) can be grouped into nine distinct phases, which correspond to well-separated spatial clusters and distinct earthquake regimes. A strong premonitory thermal anomaly was calculated on July 2021 in the South of La Palma. The source of the magma was within the upper mantle (40–20 km depth). A second magma budget (< 15 km depth) indicated a short-term stagnation of alkaline magma within the lower crust, near the Moho. The outline of these earthquakes delineates the magma pathway. Just before and immediately after the eruption (phases 2 and 3), the high-frequency seismicity in the mantle disappeared completely, reappearing ten days after the eruption started. The pattern of deformation began before the eruption with a breakpoint around September 11, after which, deformation accelerated sharply, followed by stabilization in phase 3 and a decrease in the following phases. The level of deformation suggested that a shallow magma intrusion was established. Based on the historical eruptive pattern, it is possible to infer two possible hazard-forecast scenarios: (a) the volcano could enter a prolonged phase of tranquility for more than one century or, (b) a new eruption could occur between ca. 2045 and 2065, with a slightly shorter duration than this recent one. Therefore, if the more pessimistic scenario is assumed, appropriate territorial planning is required.
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- 2023
4. Estructuras Sismorresistentes. Fundamentos de proyecto
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, Bernabeu Larena, Alejandro, Cal Manteca, Manuel de la, Cervera Bravo, Jaime, Conde Conde, Jorge, Gómez Mateo, Javier, Millán Muñoz, Miguel Angel, Navas Sánchez, Laura Araceli, Torre, Juan Francisco de la, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Bernabeu Larena, Alejandro, Cal Manteca, Manuel de la, Cervera Bravo, Jaime, Conde Conde, Jorge, Gómez Mateo, Javier, Millán Muñoz, Miguel Angel, Navas Sánchez, Laura Araceli, and Torre, Juan Francisco de la
- Abstract
Los terremotos son fenómenos naturales e inevitables, causantes de grandes pérdidas humanas y económicas. Este texto presenta en forma concisa los fundamentos del diseño de estructuras sismorresistentes, disciplina cada vez más relevante en los estudios técnicos relacionados con la construcción. Tras un análisis de la naturaleza de la acción sísmica, se discute el comportamiento de las estructuras sometidas a terremotos, abarcando desde sistemas simples hasta edificios completos. La comprensión de esta respuesta permite exponer de manera fundada los principios básicos del diseño sismorresistente, enfatizando sus aspectos cualitativos mediante ejemplos construidos por los propios autores. Se introducen asimismo algunos conceptos más avanzados, como los sistemas de aislamiento y disipación de energía. Finalmente se discuten los principios de la peligrosidad, que forma la base del actual tratamiento normativo de la acción sísmica.
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- 2022
5. Statement of Peer Review.
- Author
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, Fernández Torres, José, García Blanco, Rosa María, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Manso Callejo, Miguel Ángel, and Vázquez Hoehne, Antonio
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ENVIRONMENTAL management ,GEOMATICS - Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Integration of LiDAR and multispectral images for rapid exposure and earthquake vulnerability estimation. Application in Lorca, Spain
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Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Arranz Justel, José Juan, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Haghi, Azadeh, Martínez Cuevas, Sandra, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Ojeda Manrique, Juan Carlos, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Arranz Justel, José Juan, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Haghi, Azadeh, Martínez Cuevas, Sandra, Benito Oterino, María Belén, and Ojeda Manrique, Juan Carlos
- Abstract
We present a procedure for assessing the urban exposure and seismic vulnerability that integrates LiDAR data with aerial images from the Spanish National Plan of Aerial Orthophotography (PNOA). It comprises three phases: first, we segment the satellite image to divide the study area into different urban patterns. Second, we extract building footprints and attributes that represent the type of building of each urban pattern. Finally, we assign the seismic vulnerability to each building using different machine-learning techniques: Decision trees, SVM, logistic regression and Bayesian networks. We apply the procedure to 826 buildings in the city of Lorca (SE Spain), where we count on a vulnerability database that we use as ground truth for the validation of results. The outcomes show that the machine learning techniques have similar performance, yielding vulnerability classification results with an accuracy of 77%–80% (F1-Score). The procedure is scalable and can be replicated in different areas. This is particularly relevant in Spain, where more than seven hundred towns have to develop seismic risk studies in the years to come, according to the General Direction of Civil Protection and Emergencies. It is especially interesting as a complement to conventional data gathering approaches for disaster risk applications in cities where field surveys need to be restricted to certain areas, dates or budget.
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- 2019
7. Testing and Application of Geospatial Techniques in Seismic Engineering
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Romero Jarén, Rocío, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Arranz Justel, José Juan, Romero Jarén, Rocío, Benito Oterino, María Belén, and Arranz Justel, José Juan
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Identification and classification of the different structures and infrastructures that make up a city (conventional buildings, power stations, nuclear power stations, routes of communication, etc.) are of great importance at the time of characterize their vulnerability and carry out estimates of seismic risk. Different types have different physical damage to some seismic movement, hence the importance of correctly assign a class of vulnerability. For this reason, it is necessary to know, updated form, the distribution and composition of structures and infrastructure of a city. Behaviour that presented these elements to a seismic phenomenon is linked, among others, building material and its geometric shape. Today, cadastral information updated about the infrastructure of a city does not have the data necessary and useful to carry out a calculation of seismic risk. For decades, the way of being able to have such information, has been through the development of campaigns of field for the elaboration of databases. This practice entails long time of work and the need for qualified personnel for the identification of the constructive typologies of the different structures. Nowadays, there are different geospatial techniques that allow data acquisition on a massive scale in a short time. In particular, by means of laser measurements, it is possible to have clouds of millions of points with geometric and radiometric information in a matter of seconds. This article presents a line of research whose main objective is to innovate in the vulnerability mapping and seismic risk estimation methods using geospatial techniques: static and dynamic laser. The end is contributing to knowledge and more accurate risk results, on which will be supported after the emergency plans that facilitate post event actions.
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- 2019
8. Alfonso López Arroyo: Un hombre excepcional, pionero de la ingeniería sísmica en España
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Benito Oterino, María Belén
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Ingeniería sísmica ,España ,Geología ,Alfonso López Arroyo - Abstract
El pasado 9 de Julio nos dejó Alfonso López Arroyo, de quien podemos decir que fue el padre de la Ingeniería Sísmica en España, y por encima de ello, un gran hombre. Alfonso se fue en silencio, como en silencio vivió los últimos años de su vida, pero su voz y su impronta resuenan con fuerza en todos los que le conocimos, tanto a nivel personal como profesional. Su calidad humana, unida a una brillante trayectoria científica, hace de Alfonso un personaje singular, de los que dejan una profunda huella. La ingeniería sísmica española tiene mucho que agradecerle, porque fue él quien inició su desarrollo a comienzos de los 50 y fue creando escuela, una escuela que hoy día es activa y está preparada para afrontar el reto de adoptar medidas preventivas ante los terremotos, enmarcadas en el ámbito de la ingeniería sísmica. Este es un artículo de homenaje a Alfonso López Arroyo, a la persona y al científico e ingeniero, en el que repasamos su biografía, su personalidad, su extensa trayectoria profesional, sus principales logros y el legado que nos deja. Su ejemplo resultará edificante mas allá de la disciplina en la que trabajó Alfonso, porque una vida ejemplar como la suya trasciende cualquier disciplina y puede suponer un legado para cualquier hombre o mujer en todos los ámbitos de la vida
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- 2017
9. Approach for combining fault and area sources in seismic hazard assessment: application in south-eastern Spain
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Rivas Medina, Alicia, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Benito Oterino, María Belén, and Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel
- Abstract
This paper presents a methodological approach to seismic hazard assessment based on a hybrid source model composed of faults as independent entities and zones containing residual seismicity. The seismic potential of both types of sources is derived from different data: for the zones, the recurrence model is estimated from the seismic catalogue. For fault sources, it is inferred from slip rates derived from palaeoseismicity and GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements. Distributing the seismic potential associated with each source is a key question when considering hybrid zone and fault models, and this is normally resolved using one of two possible alternatives: (1) considering a characteristic earthquake model for the fault and assigning the remaining magnitudes to the zone, or (2) establishing a cut-off magnitude, Mc, above which the seisms are assigned to the fault and below which they are considered to have occurred in the zone. This paper presents an approach to distributing seismic potential between zones and faults without restricting the magnitudes for each type of source, precluding the need to establish cut-off Mc values beforehand. This is the essential difference between our approach and other approaches that have been applied previously. The proposed approach is applied in southern Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity where faults move slowly. The results obtained are contrasted with the results of a seismic hazard method based exclusively on the zone model. Using the hybrid approach, acceleration values show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using only zones.
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- 2018
10. Large-magnitude crustal seismic sources in El Salvador and deterministic hazard scenarios
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Alonso Henar, Jorge, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Staller Vázquez, Alejandra, Álvarez Gómez, José Antonio, Martínez Díaz, José J., Canora Catalán, Carolina, Alonso Henar, Jorge, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Staller Vázquez, Alejandra, Álvarez Gómez, José Antonio, Martínez Díaz, José J., and Canora Catalán, Carolina
- Abstract
During the last years, several crustal seismic sources have been proposed in El Salvador; however, the actual destructive potential of these proposals has not been revealed yet. Here we present several seismic scenarios related with the main crustal faults in the country. We have characterized the corresponding hazard scenarios in a deterministic way, estimating the peak ground accelerations (PGA) including local site effects. In addition, we present a list of 29 sources that can be considered potentially dangerous with their main features when they are available and four seismic scenarios that we consider to be more probable. We have resorted to the February 13th 2001 Mw 6.6 destructive earthquake, the only earthquake occurred in a known crustal source in El Salvador and recorded by the strong motion network, in order to test the methodological approach and the reliability of the PGA results predicted by two available Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) including the site effect. The consistence between the values given by the models and the ones recorded during the event provides reliability to our results. This approach allowed us to conclude that faults within the volcanic arc can produce accelerations up to 1 g in the most conservator case (Mw = 7.0), while accelerations up to 0.6 g are usual results related with specific faults within the Salvadoran Volcanic Arc. Besides, the reported damage distribution of the 8th June 1917 earthquakes and its similarity with one of the proposed scenarios allowed us to infer the possible source of this event, the Guaycume Fault.
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- 2018
11. The new Central American seismic hazard zonation: Mutual consensus based on up to day seismotectonic framework
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Alvarado, Guillermo E., Benito Oterino, María Belén, Staller Vázquez, Alejandra, Climent, Álvaro, Camacho Astigarrabia, Eduardo, Rojas, Wilfredo, Marroquín, Griselda, Molina, Enrique, Talavera, Emilio, Martínez Cuevas, Sandra, Lindholm, Conrad, Alvarado, Guillermo E., Benito Oterino, María Belén, Staller Vázquez, Alejandra, Climent, Álvaro, Camacho Astigarrabia, Eduardo, Rojas, Wilfredo, Marroquín, Griselda, Molina, Enrique, Talavera, Emilio, Martínez Cuevas, Sandra, and Lindholm, Conrad
- Abstract
Central America is one of the most active seismic zones in the World, due to the interaction of five tectonic plates (North America, Caribbean, Coco, Nazca and South America), and its internal deformation, which generates almost one destructive earthquakes (5.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.1) every year. A new seismological zonation for Central America is proposed based on seismotectonic framework, a geological context (tectonic and geological maps), geophysical and geodetic evidence (gravimetric maps, magnetometric, GPS observations), and previous works. As a main source of data a depurated earthquake catalog was collected covering the period from 1522 to 2015. This catalog was homogenized to a moment magnitude scale (Mw). After a careful analysis of all the integrated geological and seismological information, the seismogenic zones were established into seismic areas defined by similar patterns of faulting, seismicity, and rupture mechanism. The tectonic environment has required considering seismic zones in two particular seismological regimes: a) crustal faulting (including local faults, major fracture zones of plate boundary limits, and thrust fault of deformed belts) and b) subduction, taking into account the change in the subduction angle along the trench, and the type and location of the rupture. The seismicity in the subduction zone is divided into interplate and intraplate inslab seismicity. The regional seismic zonation proposed for the whole of Central America, include local seismic zonations, avoiding discontinuities at the national boundaries, because of a consensus between the 7 countries, based on the cooperative work of specialists on Central American seismotectonics and related topics.
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- 2017
12. Temporal evolution of a seismic sequence induced by a gas injection in the Eastern coast of Spain
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Ruiz Barajas, Sandra, Sharma, N., Convertito, V., Zollo, Aldo, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Ruiz Barajas, Sandra, Sharma, N., Convertito, V., Zollo, Aldo, and Benito Oterino, María Belén
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Induced seismicity associated with energy production is becoming an increasingly important issue worldwide for the hazard it poses to the exposed population and structures. We analyze one of the rare cases of induced seismicity associated with the underwater gas storage operations observed in the Castor platform, located in the Valencia gulf, east Spain, near a complex and important geological structure. In September 2013, some gas injection operations started at Castor, producing a series of seismic events around the reservoir area. The larger magnitude events (up to 4.2) took place some days after the end of the injection, with EMS intensities in coastal towns up to degree III. In this work, the seismic sequence is analyzed with the aim of detecting changes in statistical parameters describing the earthquake occurrence before and after the injection and identifying possible proxies to be used for monitoring the sequence evolution. Moreover, we explore the potential predictability of these statistical parameters which can be used to control the field operations in injection/storage fluid reservoirs. We firstly perform a retrospective approach and next a perspective analysis. We use different techniques for estimating the value of the expected maximum magnitude that can occur due to antropogenic activities in Castor.
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- 2017
13. A first approach to earthquake damage estimation in Haiti: advices to minimize the seismic risk
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Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Física, Ingeniería de Sistemas y Teoría de la Señal, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Molina-Palacios, Sergio, Martínez-Cuevas, Sandra, Navarro Bernal, Manuel, Martínez-Díaz, José Jesús, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Galiana-Merino, Juan José, Belizaire, Dwinel, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Física, Ingeniería de Sistemas y Teoría de la Señal, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Molina-Palacios, Sergio, Martínez-Cuevas, Sandra, Navarro Bernal, Manuel, Martínez-Díaz, José Jesús, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Galiana-Merino, Juan José, and Belizaire, Dwinel
- Abstract
This study is in the frame of the cooperative line that several Spanish Universities and other foreign partners started with the Haitian government in 2010. According to our studies (Benito et al. in An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, Russia, 2012) and recent scientific literature, the earthquake hazard in Haiti remains high (Calais et al. in Nat Geosci 3:794–799, 2010). In view of this, we wonder whether the country is currently ready to face another earthquake. In this sense, we estimated several damage scenarios in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien associated to realistic possible major earthquakes. Our findings show that almost 50 % of the building stock of both cities would result uninhabitable due to structural damage. Around 80 % of the buildings in both cities have reinforced concrete structure with concrete block infill; however, the presence of masonry buildings becomes significant (between 25 and 45 % of the reinforced concrete buildings) in rural areas and informal settlements on the outskirts, where the estimated damage is higher. The influence of the soil effect on the damage spatial distribution is evident in both cities. We have found that the percentage of uninhabitable buildings in soft soil areas may be double the percentage obtained in nearby districts located in hard soil. These results reveal that a new seismic catastrophe of similar or even greater consequences than the 2010 Haiti earthquake might happen if the earthquake resilience is not improved in the country. Nowadays, the design of prevention actions and mitigation policies is the best instrument the society has to face seismic risk. In this sense, the results of this research might contribute to define measures oriented to earthquake risk reduction in Haiti, which should be a real priority for national and international institutions.
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- 2016
14. A first approach to earthquake damage estimation in Haiti: advices to minimize the seismic risk
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Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Molina Palacios, Sergio, Martínez Cuevas, Sandra, Navarro Bernal, Manuel, Martínez Díaz, José Jesús, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Galiana Merino, Juan José, Belizaire, Dwinel, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Molina Palacios, Sergio, Martínez Cuevas, Sandra, Navarro Bernal, Manuel, Martínez Díaz, José Jesús, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Galiana Merino, Juan José, and Belizaire, Dwinel
- Abstract
This study is in the frame of the cooperative line that several Spanish Universities and other foreign partners started with the Haitian government in 2010. According to our studies (Benito et al. in An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, Russia, 2012) and recent scientific literature, the earthquake hazard in Haiti remains high (Calais et al. in Nat Geosci 3:794–799, 2010). In view of this, we wonder whether the country is currently ready to face another earthquake. In this sense, we estimated several damage scenarios in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien associated to realistic possible major earthquakes. Our findings show that almost 50 % of the building stock of both cities would result uninhabitable due to structural damage. Around 80 % of the buildings in both cities have reinforced concrete structure with concrete block infill; however, the presence of masonry buildings becomes significant (between 25 and 45 % of the reinforced concrete buildings) in rural areas and informal settlements on the outskirts, where the estimated damage is higher. The influence of the soil effect on the damage spatial distribution is evident in both cities. We have found that the percentage of uninhabitable buildings in soft soil areas may be double the percentage obtained in nearby districts located in hard soil. These results reveal that a new seismic catastrophe of similar or even greater consequences than the 2010 Haiti earthquake might happen if the earthquake resilience is not improved in the country. Nowadays, the design of prevention actions and mitigation policies is the best instrument the society has to face seismic risk. In this sense, the results of this research might contribute to define measures oriented to earthquake risk reduction in Haiti, which should be a real priority for national and international institutions.
- Published
- 2016
15. Object-based urban structure type pattern recognition from Landsat TM with a Support Vector Machine
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Wieland, Marc, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Pittore, Massimiliano, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Wieland, Marc, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Pittore, Massimiliano, and Benito Oterino, María Belén
- Abstract
This study evaluates the potential of object-based image analysis in combination with supervised machine learning to identify urban structure type patterns from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images. The main aim is to assess the influence of several critical choices commonly made during the training stage of a learning machine on the classification performance and to give recommendations for classifier-dependent intelligent training. Particular emphasis is given to assess the influence of size and class distribution of the training data, the approach of training data sampling (user-guided or random) and the type of training samples (squares or segments) on the classification performance of a Support Vector Machine (SVM). Different feature selection algorithms are compared and segmentation and classifier parameters are dynamically tuned for the specific image scene, classification task, and training data. The performance of the classifier is measured against a set of reference data sets from manual image interpretation and furthermore compared on the basis of landscape metrics to a very high resolution reference classification derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) measurements. The study highlights the importance of a careful design of the training stage and dynamically tuned classifier parameters, especially when dealing with noisy data and small training data sets. For the given experimental set-up, the study concludes that given optimized feature space and classifier parameters, training an SVM with segment-shaped samples that were sampled in a guided manner and are balanced between the classes provided the best classification results. If square-shaped samples are used, a random sampling provided better results than a guided selection. Equally balanced sample distributions outperformed unbalanced training sets.
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- 2016
16. Uncertainty assessment for the seismic hazard map of Spain
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Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Parra Cárdenas, Humberto Aníbal, Cabañas, Luis, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Ruiz Barajas, Sandra, Martínez Solares, José Manuel, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Parra Cárdenas, Humberto Aníbal, Cabañas, Luis, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Ruiz Barajas, Sandra, and Martínez Solares, José Manuel
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This work provides a comprehensive explanation of the uncertainty assessment conducted during the development of Spain's new seismic hazard maps. It offers detailed insights into how uncertainties are addressed across various phases of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study. Particular attention is devoted to characterizing the uncertainty associated with earthquake size parameters found within the catalog. This includes an exploration of how these uncertainties propagate through subsequent phases of the analysis, such as catalog homogenization, completeness evaluation, and declustering. Both aleatory (inherent randomness) and epistemic (due to incomplete knowledge) uncertainties are meticulously examined and assessed. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to address aleatory uncertainties, while a logic tree approach is utilized for handling epistemic uncertainties. The study evaluates the final impact of uncertainty on hazard estimates using coefficient of variation maps. These maps visually depict areas where variability in hazard estimates is more pronounced or reduced, providing valuable insights into the reliability of the developed hazard maps. Ultimately, the hazard maps produced in this study serve as a foundational resource for the future revision of the Spanish seismic code. By thoroughly addressing and evaluating uncertainties, this work contributes to enhancing the accuracy and robustness of seismic hazard assessments, thus supporting improved seismic risk management practices.
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- 2015
17. Relationships Between Mw and Other Earthquake Size Parameters in the Spanish IGN Seismic Catalog
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Cabañas, Luis, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Martínez Solares, José Manuel, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Antón, R, Ruiz Barajas, Sandra, Cabañas, Luis, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Martínez Solares, José Manuel, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Antón, R, and Ruiz Barajas, Sandra
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In the recent seismic hazard assessment study of Spain, a crucial step in preparing and standardizing the seismic catalog involves establishing relationships among various scales used to measure earthquake size. The aim is to convert all earthquake size data from the original catalog into a single magnitude scale, specifically the moment magnitude (Mw). This ensures uniform and comparable size measurements across the dataset. To achieve this, new relationships between Mw and other magnitude scales used in the catalog are developed through regression analysis. This analysis is conducted across different epochs, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of seismicity trends over time. The reduced major axis regression scheme is employed for its symmetric treatment of variables involved in the fits, ensuring robustness in the derived relationships. The study presents the newly derived relationships for Spain, including Mw as a function of mbLg, Mw as a function of mb, and Mw as a function of Imax. The applicability limits and accuracy of these relationships are thoroughly discussed to provide insights into their reliability and utility in seismic analysis. Importantly, beyond their immediate application in seismic hazard assessment, these results could have broader practical implications in regional seismicity analysis, offering valuable tools for earthquake research and risk management initiatives.
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- 2015
18. Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code
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Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., Cabañas, Luis, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Martínez-Solares, J. Manuel, Ruíz, Sandra, Carreño, Emilio, Crespo, María, García-Mayordomo, Julián, and Bernal, Alberto
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Topografía - Abstract
In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.
- Published
- 2013
19. Horizontal to vertical spectral ratio measurements in Port-au-Prince (Haiti) area damaged by the 2010 Haiti earthquake
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, Navarro, Manuel, Enomoto, T., Belizaire, Dwinel, Navarro, D., García-Jerez, A., and Dorfeuille, Jean Michel Haendel
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Geología - Abstract
In order to evaluate ground shaking characteristics due to surface soil layers in the urban area of Port-au-Prince, short-period ambient noise observation has been performed approximately in a 500x500m grid. The HVSR method was applied to this set of 36 ambient noise measurement points to determine a distribution map of soil predominant periods. This map reveals a general increasing trend in the period values, from the Miocene conglomerates in the northern and southern parts of the town to the central and western zones formed of Pleistocene and Holocene alluvial deposits respectively, where the shallow geological materials that cover the basement increase in thickness. Shorter predominant periods (less than 0.3 s) were found in mountainous and neighbouring zones, where the thickness of sediments is smaller whereas longer periods (greater than 0.5 s) appear in Holocene alluvial fans, where the thickness of sediments is larger. The shallow shear-wave velocity structure have been estimated by means of inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion data obtained from vertical-component array records of ambient noise. The measurements were carried out at one open space located in Holocene alluvial deposits, using 3 regular pentagonal arrays with 5, 10 and 20m respectively. Reliable dispersion curves were retrieved for frequencies between 4.0 and 14 Hz, with phase velocity values ranging from 420m/s down to 270 m/s. Finally, the average shear-wave velocity of the upper 30 m (VS30) was inverted for characterization of this geological unit.
- Published
- 2013
20. Foreword special issue Lorca’s earthquake
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Alarcón Álvarez, Enrique, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Alarcón Álvarez, Enrique, and Benito Oterino, María Belén
- Abstract
(This is an excerpt from the content) On May 11 2011 at 1705 hours, a small 4.5 Mw. magnitude earthquake struck the town of Lorca in south-eastern Spain. Other than alarmed citizens, only minor damage to buildings occurred due to this quake. Unfortunately at 1847 hours, a second shock registering a magnitude of 5.1 Mw. and very shallow (just around 2 km under the city) produced the largest seismic catastrophe registered in Spain in the last 120 years. This second shock is commonly referred to as “Lorca’s earthquake” and the following papers describe the context, circumstances and consequences of the event. Spain is a country of moderate seismic hazard in a global context. Before the Lorca earthquake, the most destructive earthquake in modern times was the so-called “Andalusian earthquake” (25th December 1884) that resulted in 750 fatalities and more than 1,500 injuries, reaching X in Mercalli’s intensity scale. Despite the lack of catastrophic events in the last 120 years, Spain has always had a scientific interest in seismic ...
- Published
- 2014
21. Aceleraciones registradas y calculadas del sismo del 12 de agosto de 2014 en Quito.
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Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Parra Cárdenas, Humberto Aníbal, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Aguair, Roberto, Trujillo, Santiago, Arciniegas, Susana, Villalba, Paola, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Parra Cárdenas, Humberto Aníbal, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Aguair, Roberto, Trujillo, Santiago, Arciniegas, Susana, and Villalba, Paola
- Abstract
El 12 de agosto de 2014, se registró un sismo de magnitud 5.1, a una profundidad focal de 4 km., en el segmento de falla Bellavista Catequilla, el mismo que fue registrado en 8 estaciones localizadas en la ciudad de Quito. Estas se encuentran ubicadas a distancias epicentrales entre 12 y 19 km. En este artículo se comparan las aceleraciones máximas obtenidas en campo libre, con las que se obtienen al emplear las ecuaciones de movimientos fuertes de Campbell y Borzognia (2013) y el de Zhao et al. (2006). Para ello previamente se determina un plano de ruptura del sismo, utilizando las ecuaciones propuestas por Leonard (2010) y la geometría de las fallas ciegas propuestas por Alvarado (2014). ABSTRACT: On August 12 th 2014, a magnitude 5.1 earthquake occurred at a depth of 4 km, in the Bellavista Catequilla fault segment. This event was recorded by 8 strong-motion stations located between 12 and 19 km from the epicenter, in the city of Quito. In this article, the maximum ground accelerations recorded in free field are compared with the accelerations estimated using the models by Campbell y Borzognia (2013) and Zh ao et al. (2006). To this end, the earthquake rupture plane is determined using the equations proposed by Leonard (2010) and the geometry of the blind fault system of Quito proposed by Alvarado (2014).
- Published
- 2014
22. Using damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for vulnerability estimation of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti).
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Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Navarro, N., Molina, S., Belizaire, D., Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Navarro, N., Molina, S., and Belizaire, D.
- Abstract
After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and Vs30 models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.
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- 2014
23. Respuesta de puentes ante acciones sísmicas
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., Pastor, Juan Antonio, and Alarcón Álvarez, Enrique
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Ingeniería Civil y de la Construcción - Abstract
El presente estudio tiene por objetivo la estimación, para un puente real, de la probabilidad anual de que dicha estructura sobrepase unos determinados estados límites utilizando el método SAC/FEMA. El estudio incorpora tanto los aspectos sismológicos, que llevan a establecer el movimiento probable que afectará a la estructura, como el modelado detallado de la misma y el estudio de su respuesta a dicho movimiento. El estudio de peligrosidad necesario para el desarrollo de la metodología anterior lleva a obtener los espectros de peligrosidad uniforme asociados a probabilidades de excedencia 2%, 10% y 50% en 50 años, y seleccionar en bases de datos registros coherentes con los correspondientes movimientos. Éstos niveles de solicitación se comparan con los equivalentes según el borrador de la Norma de Construcción Sismorresistente: Parte de Puentes (NCSE Puentes 2006), y se ponen de manifiesto las diferencias encontradas.
- Published
- 2007
24. Using the damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for calibrating vulnerability models of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti)
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Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias del Mar y Biología Aplicada, Molina-Palacios, Sergio, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Navarro Bernal, Manuel, Belizaire, Dwinel, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias del Mar y Biología Aplicada, Molina-Palacios, Sergio, Torres Fernández, Yolanda, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Navarro Bernal, Manuel, and Belizaire, Dwinel
- Abstract
After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and Vs30 models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.
- Published
- 2013
25. The role of GIS in urban seismic risk studies: application to the city of Almería (southern Spain)
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Rivas Medina, Alicia, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Bernabe Poveda, Miguel Angel, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, Benito Oterino, María Belén, and Bernabe Poveda, Miguel Angel
- Abstract
This work outlines the development and utilization of a Geographic Information System (GIS) for studying urban seismic risk in the city of Almería, located in southern Spain. The GIS serves as a crucial tool in decision-making processes throughout the project's execution. Following the completion and approval of regional emergency plans for seismic risk in Spain, municipalities identified the need to develop specific local seismic risk plans. Consequently, the focus shifts towards conducting urban seismic risk analyses at an appropriate scale, termed Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation (Risk-UR). This evaluation integrates various factors influencing seismic risk, including seismic hazard, geotechnical soil characteristics, vulnerability of regional structures, repair costs of damaged buildings, and exposed population. By consolidating and analyzing these variables within a GIS, seismic risk estimation becomes more effective. The GIS proves invaluable due to its capability for data interoperability, streamlining the handling of extensive information and numerous processes involved in calculations. This expedites analysis, interpretation, and presentation of results across different project phases. The study's outcome encompasses a comprehensive array of variables, offering insights into urban seismic risk. These include the distribution of building and dwelling damage across different typologies, average damage levels, the count of uninhabitable buildings under expected seismic motion, casualties at various times of the day, and the financial implications of reconstruction and repair. These results aim to facilitate interpretation and decision-making in emergency management, catering to non-specialist users such as Civil Defence technicians and managers.
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- 2013
26. Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain).
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Rivas Medina, Alicia, Santoyo, Miguel Ángel, Luzón, F., Benito Oterino, María Belén, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, García Jerez, Antonio, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Santoyo, Miguel Ángel, Luzón, F., Benito Oterino, María Belén, Gaspar Escribano, Jorge Miguel, and García Jerez, Antonio
- Abstract
This paper presents a novel approach to characterizing ground motion hazards at the Itoiz dam site in Northern Spain. Our methodology offers various approximation levels to estimate expected ground motion, tailored to the site and dam's unique attributes. Employing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) with a logic tree, we account for diverse seismic source zones and ground-motion attenuation relationships. Our analysis focuses on peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations aligned with the dam's fundamental vibration periods. Considering both empty and full reservoir conditions, hazard calculations encompass two significant return periods: 975 years, linked to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, denoting an extreme event. Additionally, soil conditions are factored into the analysis. Our methodology encompasses diverse approaches to ground motion characterization. Initially, we derive uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. Subsequently, disaggregation analysis identifies the primary earthquakes influencing the dam. We then characterize ground motion at the dam site through specific response spectra for target motions corresponding to expected values for the respective return periods. Finally, we generate synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquakes matching the controlling parameters, utilizing the discrete wave-number method. Given the short distances between controlling earthquakes and the dam site, we consider finite sources in our computations. We conclude by emphasizing the significance of considering directivity effects as a crucial variable in such studies for accurately assessing ground motion characteristics.
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- 2012
27. El Terremoto de Lorca (2011) en el contexto de la peligrosidad y el riesgo sísmico en Murcia.
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., Murphy, Patrick, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Rivas Medina, Alicia, Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., and Murphy, Patrick
- Abstract
Este trabajo presenta un análisis de diferentes aspectos relacionados con el sismo principal del 11 de Mayo de 2011, con epicentro en las proximidades de Lorca, que abarcan desde el movimiento fuerte registrado hasta el daño observado en diferentes tipologías constructivas, contrastando todo ello con los resultados de estudios previos de peligrosidad y riesgo sísmico en la provincia de Murcia. La cuestión esencial que se plantea en el análisis es si tanto el movimiento como el daño entraban dentro de lo esperado o pueden considerarse anómalos en el marco del riesgo sísmico del sureste de España. A este respecto se hacen una serie de reflexiones y se extraen lecciones aprendidas del terremoto, que llevan a proponer recomendaciones de cara a la revisión de la Norma Sismorresistente Española, así como a definir medidas para la reducción del riesgo sísmico en la región. Abstract: An analysis of the different aspects related to the May 11th, 2011 Lorca earthquake is presented,covering recorded ground motions, damage observed in different building typologies, and contrasting these observations with previous results on seismic hazard and seismic risk obtained in the province of Murcia. The essential question addressed in the analysis is whether observed ground motions and physical damage can be considered as expected or as anomalous in the frame of seismic risk in southeastern Spain. In this respect, a number of reflections are carried out and several learned lessons from the earthquake are extracted, which leads to the proposal of different recommendations for the future revision of the Spanish earthquake-resistant provisions, as well as for defining risk reduction measurements in the region.
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- 2012
28. Lecciones aprendidas del terremoto de Lorca de 2011
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Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Alfaro García, Pedro, González, Marta, Brusi, David, López Martín, Juan Antonio, Martínez Díaz, José Antonio, García Mayordomo, Julián, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Murphy, Patrick D., Nájera, Alfonso, Villalba, Ricardo, Jódar, Francisco, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Alfaro García, Pedro, González, Marta, Brusi, David, López Martín, Juan Antonio, Martínez Díaz, José Antonio, García Mayordomo, Julián, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Murphy, Patrick D., Nájera, Alfonso, Villalba, Ricardo, and Jódar, Francisco
- Abstract
El terremoto de Lorca del 11 de mayo de 2011, de magnitud Mw=5,2, causó un enorme impacto en la ciudad y una gran alarma social, provocando 9 víctimas mortales, centenares de heridos y cuantiosos daños materiales. Este trabajo recoge las opiniones de varios expertos que tuvieron un papel destacado en la gestión y análisis del suceso, y la de 627 lorquinos a través de una encuesta llevada a cabo por estudiantes del I.E.S. Ramón Arcas de Lorca. Aunque cada uno de los expertos y los ciudadanos inciden en aspectos diferentes, el análisis de sus opiniones nos permite concluir, como principal lección aprendida, que terremotos futuros como el de Lorca pueden producir muchos menos daños si se trabaja conjuntamente en mejorar: (1) la investigación sísmica, (2) la calidad de las construcciones, (3) la gestión de las catástrofes naturales y (4) la formación de la ciudadanía. Esta aproximación multidisciplinar al terremoto de Lorca puede resultar interesante para los estudiantes, y puede aportar ideas a los docentes para el análisis de futuros terremotos., The Mw 5,2 earthquake of 11 May 2011 in Lorca caused a great impact and social alarm, producing 9 fatalities, injuring hundreds and leaving widespread damage. This paper collects opinions by several experts on earthquakes and seismic risk management, and the opinions of 627 citizens from on an opinion poll conducted by students of the Ramon Arcas high school in Lorca. Although experts and citizens focus their attention on different items, anaylizing their opinions allows us to conclude that prevention or mitigation of the effects of future earthquakes needs combined efforts aimed at improving: (1) earthquake research, (2) earthquake-proof design of buildings, (3) seismic risk management and (4) self-protection measures and education of the population. This multidisciplinary approach of the Lorca earthquake is interesting for students and teachers when it comes to analyzing future earthquakes.
- Published
- 2012
29. Evaluación del riesgo sísmico con técnicas de información geográfica. Aplicación en Navarra
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Benito Oterino, María Belén, Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., García Rodríguez, María José, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., and García Rodríguez, María José
- Abstract
El SIG-RISNA es un sistema de información geográfica desarrollado en el marco de un proyecto de evaluación del riesgo sísmico en la Comunidad Foral de Navarra, Proyecto RISNA. El objetivo general del mismo es hacer una evaluación, de carácter científicotécnica, que sirva de base para desarrollar el Plan Especial de Emergencia de la región y para la identificación de municipios de especial riesgo de cara a su posterior estudio local. Para esta evaluación, se combinan diferentes factores influyentes en el riesgo sísmico, tales como la peligrosidad sísmica, las características geotécnicas del suelo y la vulnerabilidad de estructuras de la región. Todas estas variables se integran en la estimación del riesgo por medio un SIG, que constituye una herramienta de trabajo de gran utilidad, ya que facilita la interoperabilidad de los datos haciendo más manejable el gran volumen de información requerida y los numerosos procesos que intervienen en el cálculo. En este artículo de describirán las características y el esqueleto del SIG-RISNA, incluyendo los datos de partida necesarios y los procesos y análisis realizados para la consecución del mismo. El resultado de este estudio comprende un gran conjunto de variables que dan una visión global del riesgo sísmico en la región, como son la distribución de daños para diferentes tipologías, el daño medio y el número de edificaciones que quedarían inhabitables ante el movimiento esperado, entre otros. Estos resultados están destinados a la interpretación y toma de decisiones, de personal no especializado (técnicos y gestores de Protección Civil), hacia la gestión de la emergencia. Por este motivo, una transmisión comprensible de los resultados de forma que puedan ser correctamente interpretados se considera un apartado de especial importancia dentro del estudio. En este contexto se desarrolló el visualizador Web VISORRISNA, una aplicación Web que contiene todos los resultados del estudio expuestos por medio de un conjunto de capas de
- Published
- 2010
30. Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions
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Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., Benito Oterino, María Belén, Garcia Mayordomo, Julián, Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge M., Benito Oterino, María Belén, and Garcia Mayordomo, Julián
- Abstract
Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions. Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori). An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period).
- Published
- 2008
31. Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in El Salvador using logistic regression
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García Rodríguez, María José, Malpica Velasco, José Antonio, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Díaz, Manuel, García Rodríguez, María José, Malpica Velasco, José Antonio, Benito Oterino, María Belén, and Díaz, Manuel
- Abstract
This work has evaluated the probability of earthquake-triggered landslide occurrence in the whole of El Salvador, with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and a logistic regression model. Slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness are the predictor variables used to determine the dependent variable of occurrence or nonoccurrence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results illustrate the importance of terrain roughness and soil type as key factors within the model — using only these two variables the analysis returned a significance level of 89.4%. The results obtained from the model within the GIS were then used to produce a map of relative landslide susceptibility.
- Published
- 2008
32. Análisis y propuesta de relaciones empíricas de escalamiento de magnitudes para el potencial sísmico en Centroamérica
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Arroyo Solórzano, Mario Andrés, Benito Oterino, María Belén, Alvarado Induni, Guillermo, and Climent Martín, Álvaro
- Subjects
Topografía - Abstract
América Central es una región sísmicamente activa donde interactúan cinco placas tectónicas (Norteamérica, Caribe, Coco, Nazca y Sudamérica) y la microplaca de Panamá, en una zona de subducción con fallas transformantes y cercana a puntos triples. Este entorno tectónico complejo hace que la estimación del potencial sísmico (magnitud máxima) sea una tarea muy importante. Existen una serie de fórmulas empíricas mediante las cuales se puede estimar el potencial de las fallas a partir de parámetros geométricos de ruptura de terremotos. En este estudio se hizo uso de estas fórmulas para aproximar la magnitud de sismos importantes ocurridos en la región, comparando magnitudes estimadas con las observadas instrumentalmente. Además, se proponen leyes de escalamiento propias para América Central, con base en el conjunto de datos más completo de terremotos relevantes generados por fallas corticales y mejor caracterizados en la región. La base de datos se compone de 64 terremotos ocurridos en América Central entre 1972 y el 2021, con magnitudes entre 4.1 y 7.7 Mw. Este catálogo de sismos consiste en una recopilación de los parámetros de ruptura relativamente bien establecidos de cada terremoto (longitud, ancho, área, deslizamiento, magnitud) y características (ubicación, posible falla asociada, así como las réplicas relacionadas). Los registros de esta base de datos fueron categorizados siguiendo un esquema de pesos, de acuerdo con: 1) el año de ocurrencia, 2) la literatura disponible, 3) la cantidad réplicas tempranas, 4) el conocimiento de la falla asociada y 5) la magnitud del sismo. Con base en esto, se analizaron 19 relaciones empíricas desarrolladas a nivel mundial, y se seleccionaron 13 de ellas para evaluar cuales estiman de mejor manera las magnitudes para el contexto tectónico de América Central. La evaluación de la precisión del ajuste ha sido determinada por medio de un esquema basado en valores estadísticos de: promedio, mediana, error medio cuadrático y error estándar de los residuales, determinando cuatro categorías (A, B, C y D), donde A son las ecuaciones con mejores condiciones y D los que poseen peores ajustes. Los resultados de los ajustes son sintetizados en árboles lógicos para el uso de las distintas relaciones de escalamiento de magnitudes de terremotos (REMT) por cada parámetro de ruptura, los cuales se recomiendan para los futuros análisis de amenaza sísmica en la región. Para los parámetros de ruptura de más amplio uso (longitud y área de ruptura), se recomienda el uso de la ecuación de Thingbaijam et al. (2017), siendo esta la que mejores ajustes presenta con respecto a los datos observados. Esta relación estima áreas de ruptura y valores de aspect ratio considerablemente mayores a otras, como, por ejemplo, las desarrolladas con registros de terremotos de Nueva Zelanda. Esto sugiere, que se requieren longitudes de ruptura y áreas mucho más grandes en América Central con respecto a Nueva Zelanda, para poder provocar sismos de la misma magnitud. Una posible consideración sobre esto es que las rocas de la corteza en Centroamérica podrían presentar un módulo de rigidez (μ), considerablemente más bajo que las de Nueva Zelanda, con lo cual se explicaría en cierta medida el porqué de que los terremotos corticales en América Central no presenten ruptura superficial, ni magnitudes tan grandes con tanta frecuencia como si ocurre en Nueva Zelanda. Finalmente, se proponen nuevas relaciones empíricas para los parámetros de longitud, ancho y área de ruptura. Estas relaciones específicas para América Central son de gran utilidad y un aporte muy importante para su uso en futuros estudios de amenaza sísmica. Las ecuaciones propuestas han sido validadas por medio del mismo análisis de residuales aplicado a las REMT mundiales y se han determinado mejores valores estadísticos del ajuste, con lo cual, finalmente se propone el uso de árboles lógicos que combinan las propuestas para la región y las mundiales. Con base en esto, se sugiere realizar estimaciones de la magnitud utilizando estos árboles lógicos, así como considerar siempre la longitud máxima y segmentada de la falla, un análisis de la sismicidad histórica que ha presentado dicha falla, y diferenciando entre rupturas en profundidad en la zona sismogénica y rupturas en superficie. La selección de REMT para una región específica es un componente particular, pero muy importante en el análisis y cálculos de la amenaza sísmica. La base de datos de terremotos compilada, la recopilación y sugerencia de ecuaciones por implementar, así como las propuestas desarrolladas, contribuyen como un paso muy relevante para la adecuada caracterización de la amenaza y riesgo sísmico en la región.
- Published
- 2022
33. Modelización de fallas como fuentes independientes para la estimación de la peligrosidad sísmica y análisis del impacto en los resultados de riesgo sísmico. Aplicaciones en Murcia
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Rivera Rivera, Jhonatan Steven and Benito Oterino, María Belén
- Subjects
Topografía - Abstract
Las aceleraciones sísmicas registradas en el terremoto de Lorca (2011) evidenciaron que las metodologías clásicas zonificadas subestiman el peligro sísmico en los alrededores de las fallas geológicas, reflejando así la necesidad de considerar las fallas como fuentes independientes dentro de los estudios de peligrosidad sísmica. En este trabajo de investigación se ha realizado un estudio comparativo entre los resultados de tres metodologías diferentes para el cálculo de la peligrosidad sísmica: la Metodología Clásica Zonificada “MCZ” de Cornell (1968) y dos metodologías híbridas que consideran zonas y fallas, basadas en el reparto del potencial sísmico entre ambos tipos de fuentes (fallas y zonas con sismicidad de fondo). El primero de estos métodos considera exclusivamente rupturas individuales y se denomina en este TFM Método Híbrido Propuesto “MHP” de Rivas (2014). El segundo considera tanto rupturas individuales como múltiples entre segmentos de una misma falla o de fallas diferentes y es denominado Método Híbrido con Ruptura Múltiple “MHRM”. Se implementa través del software SHERIFS (Chartier, 2017). Se ha estimado la peligrosidad sísmica probabilista PSHA mediante las tres metodologías citadas, para diferentes periodos de retorno. Se han generado así un conjunto de mapas de aceleración pico (PGA) además de resultados específicos en 24 poblaciones del sureste de España (Curvas de peligrosidad, espectros UHS y sismos de control) El modelo de zonificación ZESIS propuesto por García-Mayordomo et al. (2015) fue utilizado en los tres métodos. Un total de 21 zonas sismogénicas fueron consideradas en la estimación de la peligrosidad sísmica, 5 de ellas (zona 30, 31, 37, 39 y 55) fueron modeladas de manera híbrida, considerando un total de 50 fallas geológicas activas para el reparto del potencial sísmico. La mayoría de las fallas presentaron cinemática de rumbo y slip-rate relativamente bajos entre 0.015 y 1.66 mm/año. Un total de 20 catálogos sísmicos fueron generados con el método de Montecarlo para considerar la incertidumbre en la magnitud y localización en las metodologías híbridas. La estimación de densidad kernel permitió definir el radio de influencia de las fallas geológicas, y por ende el área de influencia del fondo. La mayoría de las fallas presentaron radios de influencia en torno a 10 kilómetros. Con el método MCZ los valores resultantes de PGA en roca para un periodo de retorno de 475 años, oscilan entre 0.04g (sector noroeste de Murcia) y 0.22g (Valle de Guadalentín). De las poblaciones analizadas, Murcia, Alcantarilla y Orihuela fueron las de mayor peligrosidad sísmica. La zona 55 fue la fuente de mayor aporte a la peligrosidad sísmica de la mayoría de las poblaciones, obteniendo sismos de control de 5.5 Mw y 10 km. Las aceleraciones PGA en roca para un periodo de retorno de 475 años utilizando el modelo de fuentes MHP, oscilan entre 0.055g (sector noroeste de Murcia) y 0.43g (Valle de Guadalentín). De las poblaciones analizadas, Totana, Lorca y Torrevieja fueron las de mayor peligrosidad sísmica. Por lo general, las fallas más cercanas a cada una de las poblaciones fueron las que produjeron el mayor aporte a la peligrosidad sísmica, obteniendo con ello diferentes sismos de control. Los sismos de control de mayor magnitud se generaron en poblaciones cercanas a fallas geológicas con las tasas de deslizamiento más altas (> 1.0 mm/año) reflejando con ello la importancia de este parámetro en el reparto del potencial sísmico. Las aceleraciones PGA en roca para un periodo de retorno de 475 años utilizando el modelo de fuentes MHRM, oscilan entre 0.057g (sector noroeste de Murcia) y 0.5g (Valle de Guadalentín). De las poblaciones analizadas, Lorca, Totana y Torrevieja fueron las de mayor peligrosidad sísmica. Al igual que en el método MHP las fallas más cercanas a cada una de las poblaciones fueron las que produjeron el mayor aporte a la peligrosidad sísmica, a excepción de la población Torre-Pacheco donde el mayor aporte fue generado por la sismicidad de fondo de la zona 39. Al contrastar los mapas de peligrosidad sísmica se obtuvieron cocientes entre los resultados de los métodos híbridos (MHP y MHRM) y el zonificado (MCZ) entre 0.7 y 4.34. Las aceleraciones se duplican en radios de hasta 5 km para fallas con slip-rate bajos ( 0.5 mm/año). Factores por encima de 3 únicamente se presentan alrededor de las fallas geológicas de la zona 30 (Pozo Hondo y Socovos 1/2), pudiendo llegar hasta 6 en los alrededores de la Región de Murcia; y en las fallas Galera y Seco de Palos. En el caso de las dos primeras fallas, esto se debe a que gran parte del bajo potencial sísmico de la zona 30 se reparte exclusivamente en las dos fallas presentes; mientras que en el caso de las dos últimas esto se debe a que dichas fallas son las que presentan mayor slip-rate dentro de su respectiva zona. Cocientes MHRM/MHP mínimos se localizan alrededor de fallas aisladas con slip-rate bajos como por ejemplo la Falla Crevillente – Sector Murcia y máximos alrededor de segmentos de fallas con slip-rate altos que pueden presentar ruptura múltiple, como es el caso de la Falla Alhama de Murcia. Al considerar periodos de retorno altos (4975 años) el cociente MHRM/MHP se incrementa debido a que MHRM considera rupturas múltiples, las cuales generan magnitudes más altas que controlan los periodos de retorno más largos. Las poblaciones de Alcoy y Benidorm fueron las únicas en las que los métodos MCZ arrojaron mayor peligrosidad sísmica, como resultado de la baja densidad de fallas presentes en estas poblaciones. Torre-Pacheco fue la única ciudad cuya fuente sismogénica de mayor aporte a la peligrosidad sísmica no correspondía a la ruptura de una falla en concreto. La metodología MHP arrojó mayores aceleraciones para gran parte de las poblaciones analizadas, especialmente en aquellas poblaciones que se encuentran localizadas alrededor de fallas con slip-rate bajos y lejos de escenarios de ruptura múltiple. Las desagregaciones sísmicas indicaron que fuentes distanciadas a más de 35 kilómetros no contribuyen a la peligrosidad sísmica de un sitio específico. Los sismos de control con mayores magnitudes (7.0 Mw) fueron obtenidos para las poblaciones de Almería, Níjar, Huércal-Overa y Albox (Provincia de Almería). La fuente asignada a estos sismos de control correspondió a las fallas de Carboneras y Alhama de Murcia (1/4), las cuales son las de mayor slip-rate (> 1.5 mm/año), reflejando con ello la importancia de la tasa de deslizamiento en las metodologías híbridas.
- Published
- 2022
34. Estudio de parámetros geodésicos y geofísicos relacionados con la erupción del volcán de Cumbre Vieja en la isla de La Palma (2021)
- Author
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Franco Blanco, Rebeca and Benito Oterino, María Belén
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Topografía - Abstract
La erupción de Cumbre Vieja en 2021 es la erupción más reciente, dañina y duradera de la que tenemos registro histórico en la isla de La Palma. La erupción ha ido acompañada de una intensa actividad sísmica, y ha sido precedida por varios enjambres registrados desde 2017 por el Instituto Geográfico Nacional. En este Trabajo Fin de Máster, analizamos esta sismicidad, identificando varias series sísmicas y estudiando la evolución de diferentes parámetros geofísicos (frecuencia de los eventos, valores b, profundidades, magnitudes, intensidad, aceleración). En este análisis ha sido posible identificar 16 fases sísmicas, 7 de ellas anteriores a la erupción volcánica, 2 que podemos calificar de preeruptivas y 7 más ocurridas dentro del periodo de la erupción volcánica. El catálogo de terremotos considerado en este estudio incluye más de 10.000 eventos, el mayor con una magnitud de 5,1 (mbLg). Se ubican los focos abiertos durante las diferentes fases, y se distingue entre sismicidad asociada a la corteza terrestre (z < 15 km) y al manto (z > 15 km). Atendiendo a estas características, se producen varios hechos interesantes. En las fases 2 y 3, justo antes e inmediatamente después del inicio de la erupción, la sismicidad en el manto desaparece por completo, reapareciendo diez días después del inicio de la erupción. En ambas fases la actividad más superficial se registra en la corteza, relacionada con la apertura de chimeneas volcánicas, y la actividad superficial coincide temporalmente con la desaparición de la sismicidad profunda. Se realiza también un análisis de las intensidades reportadas en toda la isla y de las aceleraciones pico (PGA) registradas por la estación del ha comparado con otras correlaciones deducidas en estudios de referencia desarrollados tanto para España como para otros países. Dicha correlación ha sido aplicada para obtener un mapa de peligrosidad sísmica inherente a las intensidades reportadas en la isla, aunque expresando el movimiento en términos de aceleración pico. El estudio de estos datos, complementados por una adecuada planificación territorial es fundamental para reducir la vulnerabilidad de la población y los bienes frente a los riesgos volcánicos. Abstract: The Cumbre Vieja eruption in 2021 is the most recent, damaging and long-term eruption since historical records began on the island of La Palma. In this project, we analyze various geophysical parameters (frequency of events, b-values, depths, magnitudes, intensity, acceleration) and compare our results with previous studies with the aim of improving the characterization of the seismic phases prior to an eruption. It was possible to identify 16 seismic phases, 7 of them prior to the volcanic eruption, 2 preeruptive and 9 within the period of the volcanic eruption. The catalog of earthquakes taken into account in this study includes more than 10,000 events, the largest with a magnitude of 5.1 (mbLg). The open foci are located during the different phases, distinguish between seismicity associated with the earth's crust (z < 15 km) and the mantle (z > 15 km). Considering these characteristics, several interesting facts take place. In phases 2 and 3, just before and immediately after the start of the eruption, the seismicity in the mantle disappears completely, reappearing ten days after the start of the eruption. In both phases, the most superficial activity is registered in the crust, related to the opening of volcanic vents, and the superficial activity coincides temporarily with the disappearance of deep seismicity. An analysis of the intensities reported throughout the island and of the accelerations collected by the IGN station is also carried out to obtain a valid correlation between both parameters and compare them with other reference studies developed for Spain and other countries. With this correlation, it is possible to obtain a hazard map for the ground, inherent to the intensities recorded on the island. The study of these data, complemented by adequate territorial planning, is essential to reduce the vulnerability of the population and assets to volcanic risks.
- Published
- 2022
35. Modelizaciones y análisis de sensibilidad en la evaluación integral del riesgo sísmico a escala urbana : aplicación a la ciudad de Lorca
- Author
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Quirós Hernández, Ligia Elena, Benito Oterino, Belén, Navarro Bernal, Manuel, and Benito Oterino, María Belén
- Subjects
Topografía - Abstract
En esta tesis se presenta una propuesta metodológica para la evaluación integral del riesgo sísmico en un entorno urbano, con alto grado de resolución, identificando los métodos actuales y modelos óptimos para la caracterización de las cuatro fases principales en el cálculo del riesgo: peligrosidad, efecto local, vulnerabilidad y cuantificación del daño. Como contribución inédita se incorpora en la metodología un árbol lógico para considerar distintas distribuciones de vulnerabilidad que se simulan estocásticamente por un método de Montecarlo y diferentes métodos de cálculo del daño, con el fin de cuantificar las incertidumbres inherentes a estos dos aspectos. La metodología propuesta es aplicada al núcleo urbano de la ciudad de Lorca, para la cual se realiza realiza un cálculo de peligrosidad con enfoque probabilista-determinista, mediante dos métodos de cálculo: clásico zonificado (MCZ) e hibrido (MH) considerando como fuentes sísmicas zonas y fallas, del que se identifican dos escenarios sísmicos: 1) un sismo de Mw 5.2 a corta distancia para periodo de retorno PR 475 años y 2) Un sismo de Mw 6.3 a 15 km para PR de 975 años. El primer escenario coincide con las características del sismo de Lorca, 2011, por lo que se simula el escenario de daños tomando la localización y el plano de ruptura de la falla de Alhama de Murcia que generó el terremoto, y considerando diferentes modelos de movimiento fuerte (GMPEs). Se analiza la sensibilidad de los diferentes modelos y métodos en los resultados de peligrosidad y se identifican los que reproducen mejor las aceleraciones registradas en el sismo de 2011. Se realiza además un análisis de sensibilidad considerando distintas distribuciones de vulnerabilidad y efectuando simulaciones de Montecarlo con muestras de 100, 1000, 2000 y 3000 edificios, para valorar el efecto que tiene la asignación de vulnerabilidad en los resultados de daño. Este método se aplica al caso concreto de Lorca, calculando el daño para la distribución de vulnerabilidad de una muestra detallada obtenida en campaña de campo y para la vulnerabilidad asignada a todo el parque inmobiliario de la ciudad de Lorca, comparando los resultados teóricos con los daños observados tras el terremoto. Los modelos y resultados de la calibración con el escenario del sismo de Lorca 2011, se utilizan para simular el segundo escenario, correspondiente a un sismo extremo de Mw 6.5, con 5 % de probabilidad de excedencia en 50 años. Estos resultados pueden ser de utilidad para la definición de planes de emergencia en la ciudad de Lorca. Finalmente se extraen una serie de conclusiones referentes a las diferentes fases del cálculo, a los modelos que reproducen mejor el movimiento y los daños, al impacto de usar diferentes modelos y métodos en los resultados finales y a la incertidumbre inherente a cada aspecto del problema. Se ha desarrollado un software específico para aplicar la metodología propuesta que puede considerarse otra contribución de esta tesis. ----------ABSTRACT---------- This thesis presents a methodological proposal for the comprehensive assessment of the seismic risk in an urban environment, with a high degree of resolution, identifying the current methods and optimal models for the characterization of the four main phases in the risk calculation: hazard, local effect, vulnerability and damage quantification. As an unpublished contribution, a logic tree is incorporated into the methodology for the consideration of different vulnerability distributions that are stochastically simulated by the Montecarlo method and different analysis procedures for damage estimation, in order to quantify the uncertainties inherent in these two aspects. The proposed methodology is applied to the urban center of Lorca, Spain. A seismic hazard assessment is carried out with a probabilistic-deterministic approach, by means of two methods: classic area source method (MCZ) and an hybrid method (MH) considering zones and faults, from which two seismic scenarios are identified: 1) an Mw 5.2 earthquake at a short distance for a return period of RP 475 years and 2) an Mw 6.3 earthquake at 15 km for RP of 975 years. The first scenario coincides with the characteristics of the earthquake of Lorca, 2011, so there ir a simulation for the damage scenario taking into account the location and the plane of rupture of the fault Alhama de Murcia that generated the earthquake, and considering different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The sensitivity of the different models and methods in the hazards assessment results is analyzed, identifying the ones that reproduce the best the accelerations recorded in the 2011 earthquake. A sensitivity analysis was also performed with different vulnerability distributions and Montecarlo simulations with samples of 100, 1000, 2000 and 3000 buildings, in orden to assess the effect of vulnerability distributions on the damage results. This method is applied to the specific case of Lorca, with the quantification of damage for the vulnerability assessment of a detailed building stock sample obtained in a field campaign and for the vulnerability assigned to the entire building stock of Lorca comparing the theoretical results with the observed damage after the earthquake. The models and results of the calibration with the scenario of the 2011 Lorca earthquake are used to simulate the second scenario, corresponding to an extreme earthquake Mw 6.5, with a 5% probability of exceedance in 50 years. These results can be useful for the definition of emergency plans in Lorca. Finally, a series of conclusions are drawn concerning the different phases of the calculation, the models that better reproduce movement and damage, the impact of using different models and methods in the final results and the uncertainty inherent in each aspect of the problem. A specific software has been developed for the application od the proposed methodology. It can be considered as another contribution of this thesis.
- Published
- 2017
36. Desarrollos metodológicos y aplicaciones hacia el cálculo de la peligrosidad sísmica en el ecuador continental y estudio de riesgo sísmico en la ciudad de Quito
- Author
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Parra Cárdenas, Humberto Aníbal, Benito Oterino, María Belén, and Benito Oterino, Belén
- Subjects
Topografía - Abstract
En el presente trabajo de tesis se desarrolla, en primer lugar, un estudio de peligrosidad sísmica en Ecuador continental, siguiendo una metodología probabilista zonificada. El estudio se plantea a escala regional y presenta como principales aportaciones: 1) la elaboración de un Estado del Arte sobre Tectónica y Geología de Ecuador, concluyendo con la identificación de las principales fuentes sísmicas; 2) La confección de un Catálogo Sísmico de proyecto, recopilando información de distintas agencias, que ha sido homogeneizado a magnitud momento, Mw, depurado de réplicas y premonitores y corregido por la falta de completitud para la estimación de tasas en diferentes rangos de magnitud; 3) la propuesta de un nueva zonificación sísmica, definiendo las zonas sismogenéticas en tres regímenes tectónicos: cortical, subducción interfase y subducción in-slab; 4) la caracterización sísmica de cada zona estimando los parámetros de recurrencia y Magnitud Máxima (Mmax), considerando para este último parámetro una distribución de valores posibles en función de la sismicidad y tectónica, tras un exhaustivo análisis de los datos existentes; 5) la generación de mapas de peligrosidad sísmica de Ecuador continental en términos de aceleración pico (PGA) y espectral SA (T= 1s) , en ambos casos para periodos de retorno (PR) de 475, 975 y 2475 años; 6) La estimación de espectros de peligrosidad uniforme (UHS) y sismos de control mediante desagregación de la peligrosidad, para PR de 475 y 2475 años en 4 capitales de provincia: Quito, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil y Loja. Una segunda parte del trabajo se destina al cálculo del riesgo sísmico en el Barrio Mariscal Sucre de Quito, lo que supone incidir ya a una escala municipal. Como principales contribuciones de este trabajo se destacan: 1) definición del escenario sísmico que más contribuye a la peligrosidad en Quito, que actuará como input de cálculo del riesgo; 2) caracterización de la acción sísmica asociada a ese escenario, incluyendo resultados de microzonación y efecto local en la zona de estudio; 3) Elaboración de una Base de Datos partiendo de información catastral e identificación de las tipologías dominantes; 4) Asignación de clases de vulnerabilidad y obtención de porcentajes de daño esperado en cada clase ante la acción sísmica definida previamente, con la consiguiente representación de mapas de vulnerabilidad y daño; 5) mapas de indicadores globales del riesgo sísmico; 6) Base de datos georreferenciada con toda la información generada en el estudio. Cabe destacar que el trabajo, aunque no formula nuevos métodos, si plantea una metodología integral de cálculo del riesgo sísmico, incorporando avances en cada fase abordada, desde la estimación de la peligrosidad o la definición de escenarios sísmicos con carácter hibrido (probabilista-determinista), hasta la asignación de vulnerabilidades y estimación de escenarios de daño. Esta tesis trata de presentar contribuciones hacia el mejor conocimiento de la peligrosidad sísmica en Ecuador y el riesgo sísmico en Quito, siendo uno de los primeros estudios de tesis que se desarrolla sobre estos temas en el país. El trabajo puede servir de ejemplo y punto de partida para estudios futuros; además de ser replicable en otras ciudades y municipios de Ecuador. -------------------- ABSTRACT: ------------------ This thesis first develops a study of seismic hazard in mainland Ecuador, following a zoned, probabilistic methodology. The study considers a regional scale and presents as main contributions: 1) The development of a State of Art on the Tectonics and Geology of Ecuador, concluding with the identification of the main seismic sources; 2) The creation of a Seismic Catalog project, collecting information from different agencies, which has been homogenized to Moment magnitude, Mw, purged from aftershocks and premonitories and corrected for the lack of completeness to estimate rates in different maggnitude ranges; 3) The proposal of a new seismic zoning, defining the seismogenic zones in three tectonic regimes: cortical, subduction interface and subduction in-slab; 4) The seismic characterization of each zone, estimating the parameters of recurrence and Maximum Magnitude (Mmax), considering the latter as a distribution of possible values, depending on the seismicity and tectonics, and after a thorough analysis of the existing data; 5) Seismic hazard maps of continental Ecuador in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral SA(T=1), and return periods (PR) of 475, 975 and 2475 years; 6) Uniform hazard spectra (UHS) and control earthquakes obtained by hazard disaggregation, for PR 475 and 2475 years in four provincial capitals: Quito, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil and Loja. The second section focuses on the calculation of seismic risk in the Quito Mariscal Sucre parish, which is already supposed to be influencing at a municipal level. The main contributions here are the: 1) Definition of the seismic scenario that contributes most to the hazard in Quito, which acts as an input in the risk calculation; 2) Characterization of the seismic action associated with that scenario, including results of micro-zoning and local effect in the study area; 3) Development of a database, based on cadastral data and identification of key typologies; 4) Allocation of vulnerability classes and obtaining percentages of damage expected in each class faced with the seismic action previously defined, with the consequent representation of maps of vulnerability and damage; 5) Global maps of seismic risk indicators; 6) Geo-referenced database with all the information generated in the study. It should be noted that although new methods are not prescribed, this study does set a comprehensive methodology for the calculation of seismic risk, incorporating advances in each phase approached, from the hazard estimation, or definition of seismic scenarios applying a hybrid (deterministic-probabilistic) method, to the allocation of vulnerabilities and estimation of damage scenarios. This thesis aims to present contributions leading to a better understanding of seismic hazard in Ecuador and seismic risk in Quito, and is one of the first studies in the country to develop such themes. This study can serve as an example and starting point for future studies, which could replicate this methodology in other cities and municipalities.
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