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Rupture in the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake nucleated at the downdip edge of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) near the transition from interseismic locking to aseismic creep beneath the Tibetan plateau, and propagated incompletely towards the Main Frontal Thrusts (MFT). Despite the imposition of a substantial static strain in the mid-décollement, afterslip on the MHT within a year of the earthquake had decayed to negligible levels. Earthquakes that incompletely rupture the MHT (7 < Mw < 7.9) have been relatively common in the past two centuries, and as a consequence heterogeneous patches of stored elastic strain must exist throughout the Himalaya similar to that emplaced by the Gorkha earthquake. We show that these patches of stored strain are not dissipated by creep or by subsequent updip earthquakes, with the possible exceptions of a sequence of moderate earthquakes to the west of the great 1950 Assam earthquake, and to the east of the Kangra 1905 earthquake. It is thus considered likely that mid-décollement strain newly imposed by the Gorkha earthquake, and other recent incomplete ruptures will be incorporated in the rupture of a future much larger earthquake. Incomplete ruptures (i.e. those that nucleate downdip but fail to rupture the frontal thrusts) appear to occur preferentially in parts of the central Himalaya characterized by relatively narrow transition regions of interseismic decoupling (

Thirty horizontal displacement time series from GPS sites in the area around the 2005 Kashmir earthquake show lateral spatial variations in displacement magnitude and relaxation time for the postseismic interval from 2005 to 2012. The observed spatial pattern of surface displacements can only be reproduced by finite element models of postseismic deformation in elastic over viscoelastic crust that include lateral differences in both the thickness of the elastic layer and the viscosity of the viscoelastic layer. Solutions reproducing the sign of horizontal displacements everywhere in the epicentral region also require afterslip on the portion of the fault dislocation in the viscoelastic layer but not in the elastic lid. Although there are substantial tradeoffs among contributions to postseismic displacements of the surface, the observations preclude both crustal homogeneity and shallow afterslip. In the best family of solutions, the thickness of the elastic upper crust differs by a factor of 5 and the viscosity of the middle and lower crust by an order of magnitude between domains north and south of a suture zone containing the Main Boundary Thrust and Main Mantle Thrust.

[i] We give an explanation for the polarity, localization, shape, size, and initiation of subduction zones on Earth. By considering a soft, thin, curved lithospheric cap with either elastic or viscous rheology supported by a thick, nearly incompressible mantle, we find two different characteristic subduction geometries arise depending on boundary conditions: (1) plate boundaries where subduction results primarily from the gravitational body force (free subduction) have characteristic plate lengths and form arc-shaped dimpled segments resulting from the competition between bending and stretching in edge buckling modes of thin spherical shells, and (2) subduction zones due to localized applied loads that push one slab of thin, positively buoyant lithosphere beneath an overriding plate (forced subduction) form localized straight segments, consistent with the deformation of indented spherical shells. Both types of subduction are nonlinear subcritical instabilities, so small perturbations in the mechanical properties of the lithosphere have pronounced effects on subduction initiation and evolution. Yet in both cases, geometric relationships determined by the shape of the Earth itself play the most critical role in controlling the basic morphology and characteristic length scales of subduction zones. Citation: Mahadevan, L., R. Bendick, and H. Liang (2010), Why subduction zones are curved, Tectonics, 29, TC6002, doi: 10.1029/2010TC002720. Received 8 April 2010; revised 29 July 2010; accepted 10 August 2

Observations of relative motion in a geodetic network in Ladakh, India, and across southern Tibet indicate slow shear on the Karakorum fault, rapid east-west extension across the whole of southern Tibet, and constant arc-normal convergence between India and southern Tibet along the Himalayan arc. Measurements of ten campaign-style and six permanent sites with global positioning system (GPS) precise geodesy provide these bounds on the style and rates of the large-scale deformation in the Tibet-Himalaya region. Divergence between sites at Leb, Ladakh, India, and Shiquanhe, western Tibet, as well as slow relative motion among sites within the Ladakh network, limit right-lateral slip parallel to the Karakorum fault to only 3.4 [+ or -] 5 mm/yr. This low rate concurs with a recent estimate of 3-4 mm/yr for Late Holocene time, but disagrees with the much higher rate of 30-35 mm/yr that has been used to argue for plate-like behavior of the Tibetan Plateau. Convergence between Ladakh and the Indian subcontinent at 18.8 [+ or -] 3 mm/yr at 224[degrees] [+ or -] 17[degrees] (16) differs little from estimates of convergence across the central segment of the Himalaya. Finally, lengthening of the baseline between Leh, Ladakh, and Lhasa (in southeastern Tibet) at 17.8 [+ or -] 1 mm/yr or between Leh and Bayi (farther to the southeast) at 18 [+ or -] 3 mm/yr, is consistent with an extrapolation of rates of east-west extension of the Tibetan Plateau based both on shorter GPS baselines (e.g., Lhasa-Simikot) and on diverging slip vectors of earthquakes in the Himalaya. We interpret these results to indicate that Tibet behaves more like a fluid than like a plate. Keywords: geodesy, geodynamics, Tibetan Plateau, Himalaya, Karakorum, continuum mechanics.

The Himalayan plate boundary, because it is entirely subaerial, is both the most dramatic and the most accessible to direct observation of all active convergent boundaries on Earth. The shape of this boundary can be described as a small circle of radius 1696 [+ or -] 55 km, centered at long 91.6 [degrees] [+ or -] 1.6 [degrees] E and lat 42.4 [degrees] [+ or -] 2.1 [degrees] N for the extent of the arc between long 77.2 [degrees] and 92.1 [degrees] E. The pole of this small circle is consistent whether seismicity, topography, or stress state is used to define the position of the tectonic boundary. The defined small circle also coincides with a peak in microseismicity, the maximum horizontal strain rate, and a peak in the vertical velocity field. This quantitative definition of a stable, curved tectonic boundary is a prerequisite to modeling the dynamics of curvature in convergent arcs and applying appropriate boundary conditions to other regional models. Keywords: convergence, arcs, tectonics, geomorphology, Himalaya.

Earthquakes represent the highest risk in terms of potential loss of lives and economic damage for Central Asian countries. Knowledge of fault location and behavior is essential in calculating and mapping seismic hazard. Previous efforts in compiling fault information for Central Asia have generated a large amount of data that are published in limited-access journals with no digital maps publicly available, or are limited in their description of important fault parameters such as slip rates. This study builds on previous work by improving access to fault information through a webbased interactive map and an online database with search capabilities that allow users to organize data by different fields. The data presented in this compilation include fault location, its geographic, seismic and structural characteristics, short descriptions, narrative comments and references to peer-reviewed publications. The interactive map displays 1196 fault segments and 34 000 earthquake locations on a shaded-relief map. The online database contains attributes for 122 faults mentioned in the literature, with Quaternary and geodetic slip rates reported for 38 and 26 faults respectively, and earthquake history reported for 39 faults. This work has implications for seismic hazard studies in Central Asia as it summarizes important fault parameters, and can reduce earthquake risk by enhancing public access to information. It also allows scientists and hazard assessment teams to identify structures and regions where data gaps exist and future investigations are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collision between India and Asia has been simulated with a variety of computational models that describe or predict the motions of the main faults of east Asia. Geological slip-rate estimates of 20-30 mm yr(-1) suggest that the largest of these faults, the 2,000-km-long Altyn Tagh fault system on the northern edge of the Tibetan plateau, absorbs as much of the Indo-Asian convergence signal as do the Himalayas--partly by oblique slip and partly by contraction and mountain growth. However, the predictions of dynamic models for Asian deformation and the lower bounds of some geological slip-rates estimates (3-9 mm yr(-1); refs 7, 8) suggest that the Altyn Tagh system is less active. Here, we report geodetic data from 89-91 degrees E that indicate left-lateral shear of 9 +/- 5 mm yr(-1) and contraction of 3 +/- 1 mm yr(-1) across the Altyn Tagh system. This result--combined with our finding that, at 90 degrees E, Tibet contracts north-south at 9 +/- 1 mm yr(-1)--supports the predictions of dynamic models of Asian deformation.