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US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) and ground motion models (GMMs). The ERF includes numerous additions to the finite-fault model, considers two deformation models, and introduces updated declustering and smoothing algorithms in the gridded background seismicity model. For the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone, megathrust earthquakes occur on an updated structural and segmentation model, and the moment magnitude (M) 8+ rupture and rate model include a logic tree branch that considers slip rates derived from geodetic models of interface coupling. The megathrust model considers multiple models of down-dip width, and magnitudes are computed using newly developed scaling relations. For subduction intraslab events and subduction interface events with M < 7, the 2023 update uses a smoothed seismicity model with rupture depths derived from Slab2. The 2023 model updates GMMs in all tectonic settings using the recently published Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA-Sub) GMMs for subduction interface and intraslab events, and the NGA-West2 GMMs for active crustal settings. Collectively, additions and updates to the Alaska NSHM result in hazard increases across most of south-central Alaska relative to the previous model, published in 2007. These changes are primarily due to the adoption of updated rate models for the large-magnitude interface events and the NGA-Sub GMMs that have much higher aleatory variability (sigma), consistent with global observations, and that include models of epistemic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active orogens balance tectonic rock uplift with erosion, commonly via river incision coupled to landslide denudation of “threshold” hillslopes, but sediment’s role in this feedback is unclear. We report fluvial geometry and sediment size, prevalence, and mobility across two ≤600-m-tall gneissic northern Alaska Range anticlines that sustain steep landslide-clad hillslopes but differ 10× in late Pleistocene–recent rock uplift rate. Enigmatically, the river steepens and narrows prominently across the fold experiencing slow surface uplift (∼0.5 mm/ yr) but remains low-gradient and wide downstream across the anticline undergoing rapid differential rock uplift (∼5 mm/yr). Frequent bedload mobilization across both folds implies fluvial equilibration to sediment transport despite discrepant channel forms and similarly prevalent hillslope-derived boulders. Boulder prevalence correlates significantly with channel slope and width on the slowly uplifting anticline, but weakly on the rapidly uplifting anticline. Strong correlations across the tectonically quiescent anticline may reflect local incision-suppressing boulder aggradation that forces the channel to steepen and narrow, consistent with field observations. Conversely, weak correlations across the rapidly uplifting anticline imply that boulders may modulate expected tectonic channel adjustment by preferentially aggrading to subdue slope, and deflecting frequently mobile bedload to drive lateral erosion that maintains channel width, steepens adjacent hillslopes, and perpetuates hillslope-channel coupling. Hence, hillslope-derived boulders may occupy important roles in regulating feedbacks between river incision and landslide erosion that differ fundamentally at high and low tectonic rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plate convergence rates strongly influence seismicity and mountain building inboard of convergent margins, but the distribution and kinematics of structures accommodating far- field convergence can be elusive. In interior Alaska, Yakutat microplate convergence drives late Pleistocene--recent right slip on the Denali fault, but westward-decreasing slip rates leave substantial residual Yakutat motion unaccounted for. Here, we show that Northern Foothills thrust slip beneath the northern Alaska Range absorbs a modern 4.4 mm/yr geodetic velocity gradient equivalent to -78% of the 5.6 mm/yr residual Yakutat convergence along the central Denali fault. Infrared-stimulated luminescence ages of strath terrace deposits (67--4 ka; six sites) quantify Totatlanika River bedrock incision across the 1947 Mw 7.1 thrust earthquake epicentral region. Incision rates increase abruptly from <1 mm/yr to 4.8--5.6 mm/yr above the blind thrust tip near the range front. Rapid slip at 6.7 mm/yr on a steep thrust ramp beneath the northern Alaska Range front accommodates the geodetic gradient, drives rock uplift at rates matching measured incision rates, and implies that large earthquakes like the 1947 event may recur with 500--1400 yr frequency. Results illuminate focused seismogenic strain inboard of a complex convergent margin and prompt reevaluation of Alaska's neotectonic framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bedrock river-gorge incision represents a fundamental landscape-shaping process, but a dearth of observational data at >10 yr timescales impedes understanding of gorge formation. I quantify 102 yr rates and processes of gorge incision using historical records, field observations, and topographic and image analysis of a human-caused bedrock meander cutoff along the North Fork Fortymile River in Alaska (USA). Miners cut off the meander in 1900 CE, abruptly lowering local base level by 6 m and forcing narrowing and steepening of the channel across a knickpoint that rapidly incised upstream. Tectonic quiescence, consistent rock erosivity, and low millennial erosion rates provide ideal boundary conditions for this 102 yr gorge-formation experiment. Initial fast knickpoint propagation (23 m/yr; 1900-1903 CE) slowed (4 m/yr; 1903-1981 CE) to diffusion (1981-2019 CE) as knickpoint slope decreased, yielding an ~350-m-long, 6-m-deep gorge within the pre-1900 CE channel. Today, diffusion dominates incision of a 500-m-long knickzone upstream of the gorge, where sediment transport likely limits ongoing adjustments to the anthropogenic cutoff. Results elucidate channel width, slope, discharge, and sediment dynamics consistent with a gradual transition from detachment- to transport-limited incision in fluvial adjustment to local base-level lowering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Mw 9.2 1964 great Alaska earthquake, Turnagain Arm near Girdwood, Alaska subsided 1.7 ± 0.1 m based on pre- and postearthquake leveling. The coseismic subsidence in 1964 caused equivalent sudden relative sea-level (RSL) rise that is stratigraphically preserved as mud-over-peat contacts where intertidal silt buried peaty marsh surfaces. Changes in intertidal microfossil assemblages across these contacts have been used to estimate subsidence in 1964 by applying quantitative microfossil transfer functions to reconstruct corresponding RSL rise. Here, we review the use of organic stable C and N isotope values and Corg:Ntot ratios as alternative proxies for reconstructing coseismic RSL changes, and report independent estimates of subsidence in 1964 by using δ13C values from intertidal sediment to assess RSL change caused by the earthquake. We observe that surface sediment δ13C values systematically decrease by ~4‰ over the ~2.5 m increase in elevation along three 60- to 100-m-long transects extending from intertidal mud flat to upland environments. We use a straightforward linear regression to quantify the relationship between modern sediment δ13C values and elevation (n = 84, R² = 0.56). The linear regression provides a slope-intercept equation used to reconstruct the paleoelevation of the site before and after the earthquake based on δ13C values in sandy silt above and herbaceous peat below the 1964 contact. The regression standard error (average = ±0.59‰) reflects the modern isotopic variability at sites of similar surface elevation, and is equivalent to an uncertainty of ±0.4 m elevation with respect to Mean Higher High Water. To reduce potential errors in paleoelevation and subsidence estimates, we analyzed multiple sediment δ13C values in nine cores on a shore-perpendicular transect at Bird Point. Our method estimates 1.3 ± 0.4 m of coseismic RSL rise across the 1964 contact by taking the arithmetic mean of the differences (n = 9) between reconstructed elevations for sediment above and below the 1964 earthquake subsidence contact. This estimate compares well with independent subsidence estimates derived from post-earthquake leveling in Turnagain Arm, and from microfossil transfer functions at Girdwood (1.50 ± 0.32 m). While our results support the use of bulk organic δ13C for reconstructing RSL change in southern Alaska, the variability of stable isotope values in modern and buried intertidal sediment required the analysis of multiple samples to reduce error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]