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Islands have long been recognized as distinctive evolutionary arenas leading to morphologically divergent species, such as dwarfs and giants. We assessed how body size evolution in island mammals may have exacerbated their vulnerability, as well as how human arrival has contributed to their past and ongoing extinctions, by integrating data on 1231 extant and 350 extinct species from islands and paleo islands worldwide spanning the past 23 million years. We found that the likelihood of extinction and of endangerment are highest in the most extreme island dwarfs and giants. Extinction risk of insular mammals was compounded by the arrival of modern humans, which accelerated extinction rates more than 10-fold, resulting in an almost complete demise of these iconic marvels of island evolution.

Habitat fragmentation and overexploitation of natural resources are the most prevalent and severe threats to biodiversity in tropical forests. Several studies have estimated the efect of these threats on species extinction risk, however the efect resulting from their interaction remains poorly understood. Here, we assess whether and how habitat area, fragmentation, and hunting can synergistically afect the extinction risk of neotropical primates (Platyrrhine). We use a Random Forest model to estimate the Red List extinction risk category of 147 primate species based on their biological traits and the environmental predictors they are exposed to. We fnd that environmental variables are better predictors of extinction risk than biological traits, and that hunting and fragmentation interact creating synergistic feedback that lead to higher extinction risk than when considered in isolation. We also show that the efect of environmental predictors is mediated by biological traits, with large species being sensitive to habitat area and fragmentation, and frugivorous species more threatened by hunting. Our results increase the understanding of potentially interactive efects between diferent threats, habitat area and species traits, supporting the idea that multiple threats can reinforce each other and should be thus addressed simultaneously in conservation agendas.

Aim: Whether intraspecific spatial patterns in body size are generalizable across species remains contentious, as well as the mechanisms underlying these patterns. Here we test several hypotheses explaining within-species body size variation in terrestrial vertebrates including the heat balance, seasonality, resource availability and water conservation hypotheses for ectotherms, and the heat conservation, heat dissipation, starvation resistance and resource availability hypotheses for endotherms. Location: Global. Time period: 1970–2016. Major taxa studied: Amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. Methods: We collected 235,905 body size records for 2,229 species (amphibians = 36; reptiles = 81; birds = 1,545; mammals = 567) and performed a phylogenetic meta-analysis of intraspecific correlations between body size and environmental variables. We further tested whether correlations differ between migratory and non-migratory bird and mammal species, and between thermoregulating and thermoconforming ectotherms. Results: For bird species, smaller intraspecific body size was associated with higher mean and maximum temperatures and lower resource seasonality. Size–environment relationships followed a similar pattern in resident and migratory birds, but the effect of resource availability on body size was slightly positive only for non-migratory birds. For mammals, we found that intraspecific body size was smaller with lower resource availability and seasonality, with this pattern being more evident in sedentary than migratory species. No clear size–environment relationships were found for reptiles and amphibians. Main conclusions: Within-species body size variation across endotherms is explained by disparate underlying mechanisms for birds and mammals. Heat conservation (Bergmann's rule) and heat dissipation are the dominant processes explaining biogeographic intraspecific body size variation in birds, whereas in mammals, body size clines are mostly explained by the starva

[Aim]: How population density varies across animal species in the context of environ-mental gradients, and associated migratory strategies, remains poorly understood. The recent influx of avian trait data and population density estimates allows these patterns to be described and explored in unprecedented detail. This study aims to identify the main macroecological drivers of population density in birds., [Location]: Global., [Time period]: 1970–2021., [Major taxa studied]: Birds (Aves), [Methods]: We collated a dataset of 5072 local population density estimates for 1853 species and modelled popula.tion density as a function of trait and environmental predictors in a Bayesian framework accounting for phylogenetic and spatial autocor-relation. We explored the influence of body mass, diet, primary lifestyle, mating sys-tem, nesting behaviour, territoriality, and migratory behaviour on population density, accounting for a range of environmental variables, including preferred habitat type, primary productivity, precipitation and temperature. Based on this empirical baseline, we then predicted the mean population density for 9089 species of birds and esti-mated global geographic patterns of bird population density., [Results]: Population density was lower in species with larger body mass and higher trophic levels, and also declined in territorial species, migratory species, brood para-sites and species inhabiting resource- poor habitat types (e.g., deserts). Conversely, population density increased in cooperative breeders. Environmental drivers were most influential for migratory birds, with precipitation and temperature both associ-ated with higher population density. Overall, bird population densities were higher at lower latitudes., [Main conclusions]: Our results support previous findings on the role of body mass, diet and environmental gradients, but also reveal novel species-specific drivers of avian densities related to reproduction, migration and resource-holding behaviour. Substantial fine-scale variation remains unexplained. We provide a global dataset of population density predictions for use in macroecological analyses and conservation assessments.

Comparative extinction risk analysis—which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics—has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of exti

Aim: Forecasting changes in species distribution under future scenarios is one of the most prolific areas of application for species distribution models (SDMs). However, no consensus yet exists on the reliability of such models for drawing conclusions on species’ distribution response to changing climate. In this study, we provide an overview of common modelling practices in the field and assess the reliability of model predictions using a virtual species approach. Location: Global. Methods: We first review papers published between 2015 and 2019. Then, we use a virtual species approach and three commonly applied SDM algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt and random forest) to assess the estimated and actual predictive performance of models parameterized with different modelling settings and violations of modelling assumptions. Results: Most SDM papers relied on single models (65%) and small samples (N < 50, 62%), used presence-only data (85%), binarized models' output (74%) and used a split-sample validation (94%). Our simulation reveals that the split-sample validation tends to be over-optimistic compared to the real performance, whereas spatial block validation provides a more honest estimate, except when datasets are environmentally biased. The binarization of predicted probabilities of presence reduces models’ predictive ability considerably. Sample size is one of the main predictors of the real model accuracy, but has little influence on estimated accuracy. Finally, the inclusion of ecologically irrelevant predictors and the violation of modelling assumptions increases estimated accuracy but decreases real accuracy of model projections, leading to biased estimates of range contraction and expansion. Main conclusions: Our ability to predict future species distribution is low on average, particularly when models’ predictions are binarized. A robust validation by spatially independent samples is required, but does not rule out inflation of model accuracy by assumption violation.

Seed dispersal by frugivorous bird species involves a fine temporal tuning between fruiting plants and birds. However, this interaction may be severely threatened by anthropogenic climate and land-use change, which may result in phenological mismatches and pervasive ecological consequences for avian communities. In this study, we evaluate changes at long (~40 years) and short-time (seasonal) spans in an avian frugivore community using a snapshot resampling. Particularly, we focus on changes in composition, abundance, migratory timing (i.e. phenology) and physical condition in relation to variations in fruit supply. We used bird and fruit data collected during 1981–1983 and 2019–2021 in a Mediterranean scrubland site in Doñana Natural Area, SW Spain. Our findings indicate a profound transformation of species composition, bird phenology and body condition: in ~40 years, the avian community showed a 66% and 18.4% decrease of the abundance of wintering and seed-disperser species, respectively. Seasonal abundance peaks were advanced for at least one month in the 9 out of 11 frugivorous bird species included in the analyses. Avian body condition during the migratory passage has worsened, with fewer individuals showing a high-fat percentage now than in the past. Finally, we report a fruit production decrease of almost half in 2019–2021 compared to 1981–1983, probably linked to habitat encroachment by pine trees and replacement of fleshy-fruited shrubs. Vegetation encroachment and climate change are the most plausible explanations for the observed changes in the avian community, but the relative importance of these factors is yet unknown. Our results at a local scale mirror the dramatic consequences of global change affecting the diversity, phenology and physical condition of frugivorous bird species reported in multiple studies across the globe. The loss of frugivores may trigger feedback mechanisms in which seed dispersal is disrupted, leading to impaired recruitment of f

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Seed dispersal by frugivorous bird species involves a fine temporal tuning between fruiting plants and birds. However, this interaction may be severely threatened by anthropogenic climate and land-use change, which may result in phenological mismatches and pervasive ecological consequences for avian communities. In this study, we evaluate changes at long (~40 years) and short-time (seasonal) spans in an avian frugivore community using a snapshot resampling. Particularly, we focus on changes in composition, abundance, migratory timing (i.e., phenology), and physical condition in relation to variations in fruit supply. We used bird and fruit data collected during 1981-1983 and 2019-2021 in a Mediterranean scrubland site in Doñana Natural Area, SW Spain. Our findings indicate a profound transformation of species composition, bird phenology, and body condition: in ~40 years, the avian community showed a 66% and 13% decrease of the wintering and seed-disperser species, respectively. Seasonal abundance peaks were advanced for at least one month in 9 out of 11 frugivorous bird species included in the analyses. Avian body condition during the migratory passage has worsened, with fewer individuals showing a high-fat percentage now than in the past. Finally, we report a fruit production decrease of almost half in 2019-2021 compared to 1981-1983, probably linked to habitat encroachment by pine trees and replacement of fleshy-fruited shrubs. Vegetation encroachment and climate change are the most plausible explanations for the observed changes in the avian community, but the relative importance of these factors is yet unknown. Our results at a local scale mirror the dramatic consequences of global change affecting the diversity, phenology, and physical condition of frugivorous bird species reported in multiple studies across the globe. The loss of frugivores may trigger feedback mechanisms in which seed dispersal is disrupted, leading to impaired recruitment of fruiting plants