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Abstract: —J. Blunden and T. Boyer In 2023, La Niña conditions that generally prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from mid-2020 into early 2023 gave way to a strong El Niño by October. Atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—all increased to record-high levels. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 419.3±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. The growth from 2022 to 2023 was 2.8 ppm, the fourth highest in the record since the 1960s. The combined short-term effects of El Niño and the long-term effects of increasing levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere contributed to new records for many essential climate variables reported here. The annual global temperature across land and oceans was the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, with the last seven months (June–December) having each been record warm. Over land, the globally averaged temperature was also record high. Dozens of countries reported record or near-record warmth for the year, including China and continental Europe as a whole (warmest on record), India and Russia (second warmest), and Canada (third warmest). Intense and widespread heatwaves were reported around the world. In Vietnam, an all-time national maximum temperature record of 44.2°C was observed at Tuong Duong on 7 May, surpassing the previous record of 43.4°C at Huong Khe on 20 April 2019. In Brazil, the air temperature reached 44.8°C in Araçuaí in Minas Gerais on 20 November, potentially a new national record and 12.8°C above normal. The effect of rising temperatures was apparent in the cryosphere, where snow cover extent by June 2023 was the smallest in the 56-year record for North America and seventh smallest for the Northern Hemisphere overall. Heatwaves contributed to the greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Due to rapid volume loss beginning in 2021, St. Anna Glacier in Switzerland and Ice Worm Glacier in the United States disappeared completely. In August, as a direct result of glacial thinning over the past 20 years, a glacial lake on a tributary of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska burst through its ice dam and caused unprecedented flooding on Mendenhall River near Juneau. Across the Arctic, the annual surface air temperature was the fourth highest in the 124-year record, and summer (July–September) was record warm. Smaller-than-normal snow cover extent in May and June contributed to the third-highest average peak tundra greenness in the 24-year record. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the fifth smallest in the 45-year satellite record. The 17 lowest September extents have all occurred in the last 17 years. In Antarctica, temperatures for much of the year were up to 6°C above average over the Weddell Sea and along coastal Dronning Maud Land. The Antarctic Peninsula also experienced well-above-average temperatures during the 2022/23 melt season, which contributed to its fourth consecutive summer of above-average surface melt. On 21 February, Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area both reached all-time lows, surpassing records set just a year earlier. Over the course of the year, new daily record-low sea ice extents were set on 278 days. In some instances, these daily records were set by a large margin, for example, the extent on 6 July was 1.8 million km2 lower than the previous record low for that day. Across the global oceans, the annual sea surface temperature was the highest in the 170-year record, far surpassing the previous record of 2016 by 0.13°C. Daily and monthly records were set from March onward, including an historic-high daily global mean sea surface temperature of 18.99°C recorded on 22 August. Approximately 94% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2023, while 27% experienced at least one cold spell. Globally averaged ocean heat content from the surface to 2000-m depth was record high in 2023, increasing at a rate equivalent to ∼0.7 Watts per square meter of energy applied over Earth’s surface. Global mean sea level was also record high for the 12th consecutive year, reaching 101.4 mm above the 1993 average when satellite measurements began, an increase of 8.1±1.5 mm over 2022 and the third highest year-over-year increase in the record. A total of 82 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemispheres’ storm seasons, below the 1991–2020 average of 87. Hurricane Otis became the strongest landfalling hurricane on record for the west coast of Mexico at 140 kt (72 m s−1), causing at least 52 fatalities and $12–16 billion U.S. dollars in damage. Freddy became the world’s longest-lived tropical cyclones on record, developing into a tropical cyclone on 6 February and finally dissipating on 12 March. Freddy crossed the full width of the Indian Ocean and made one landfall in Madagascar and two in Mozambique. In the Mediterranean Sea—outside of traditional tropical cyclone basins—heavy rains and flooding from Storm Daniel killed more than 4300 people and left more than 8000 missing in Libya. The record-warm temperatures in 2023 created conditions that helped intensify the hydrological cycle. Measurements of total-column water vapor in the atmosphere were the highest on record, while the fraction of cloud area in the sky was the lowest since records began in 1980. The annual global mean precipitation total over land surfaces for 2023 was among the lowest since 1979, but global one-day maximum totals were close to average, indicating an increase in rainfall intensity. In July, record-high areas of land across the globe (7.9%) experienced extreme drought, breaking the previous record of 6.2% in July 2022. Overall, 29.7% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year, also a record. Mexico reported its driest (and hottest) year since the start of its record in 1950. In alignment with hot and prolonged dry conditions, Canada experienced its worst national wildfire season on record. Approximately 15 million hectares burned across the country, which was more than double the previous record from 1989. Smoke from the fires were transported far into the United States and even to western European countries. August to October 2023 was the driest three-month period in Australia in the 104-year record. Millions of hectares of bushfires burned for weeks in the Northern Territory. In South America, extreme drought developed in the latter half of the year through the Amazon basin. By the end of October, the Rio Negro at Manaus, a major tributary of the Amazon River, fell to its lowest water level since records began in 1902. The transition from La Niña to El Niño helped bring relief to the prolonged drought conditions in equatorial eastern Africa. However, El Niño along with positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions also contributed to excessive rainfall that resulted in devastating floods over southeastern Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya during October to December that displaced around 1.5 million people. On 5 September, the town of Zagora, Greece, broke a national record for highest daily rainfall (754 mm in 21 hours, after which the station ceased reporting) due to Storm Daniel; this one-day accumulation was close to Zagora’s normal annual total.

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land‐atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the "Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide" (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio‐temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO2, climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote‐sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (−0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi‐arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi‐arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (−1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions. Plain Language Summary: Around one third of human‐induced CO2 emissions are absorbed by land ecosystems and thus act to mitigate climate change. It is essential to understand the processes, ecosystems and regions responsible for this natural carbon sink, to inform on the efficiency of the sinks into the future. These sinks are susceptible to year‐to‐year variation in response to climate variations and extremes. At the same time deforestation and other forms of land management are changing the land surface, which overall adds significantly to the human‐induced CO2 emissions. There is a need to regularly update our estimate of land carbon dynamics to aid global stock takes for the Paris agreement to avoid dangerous climate change. Here we present an international initiative that on an annual basis assesses "Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide" (TRENDY) using computer models of the land carbon cycle. We quantify the land sink during the contemporary period (2012–2021), and attribute to processes, mainly the large opposing effects of CO2 fertilization enhancing plant productivity and land‐use change. Forests and semi‐arid ecosystems are largely responsible for the mean and trend in the land sink, with the latter most important for its year‐to‐year variation. Key Points: We quantify and attribute land carbon dynamics to underlying processes at regional scales, contributing bottom‐up estimates to RECCAP‐2Models simulate a contemporary net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr, with large opposing effects of CO2 fertilization and land‐use changeDespite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relative humidity with respect to ice (RH i) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. We document its probability density function (PDF) using long-term Measurements of Ozone, Water Vapour, Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Oxides by In-Service Airbus Aircraft (MOZAIC) and the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) observations over the period 1995–2022 in the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) between 325 and 175 hPa. The characteristics of the RH i PDF differ in the UT and in the LS of the high-latitude regions (HLs) and mid-latitude regions (MLs) of the Northern Hemisphere. In the LS, this PDF decreases exponentially with increasing RH i. In the UT, it first increases exponentially in subsaturated conditions and then decreases exponentially in supersaturated conditions. Because of these different behaviors, the PDF for the combined UT and LS is bimodal. In contrast to the HLs and the MLs, the RH i PDF in the tropical troposphere decreases exponentially with increasing RH i. The different forms of PDF, in the tropics and in the higher-latitude regions, lead to a global PDF of RH i in subsaturated tropospheric conditions that is almost uniform. These findings invite caution when using MOZAIC and IAGOS measurements to calibrate large-scale simulations of RH i. The variability in RH i properties associated with that of temperature also has implications for the formation of contrails. We examined the impact of switching fuel (from kerosene to bioethanol or liquid hydrogen) on the frequency of contrail formation using the Schmidt–Appleman criterion. We show that bioethanol and, to a larger extent, liquid hydrogen would produce more contrails. The impact of a potential change from kerosene to these alternative fuels decreases with decreasing pressure but increases when moving from the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere to the tropics. Finally, we emphasize that investigations of the impact on contrail occurrence frequency as a result of switching from fossil kerosene to more sustainable fuels must be carried out in various meteorological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contrail formation potential as well as its temporal and spatial distribution is estimated using meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity from the ERA5 re-analysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Contrail formation is estimated with the Schmidt–Appleman criterion (SAc), solely considering thermodynamic effects. The focus is on a region ranging from the Eastern United States (110–65° W) to central Europe (5° W–30° E). Around 18 000 flight trajectories from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) are used as a representative subset of transatlantic, commercial flights. The typical crossing distance through a contrail-prone area is determined based on IAGOS measurements of temperature T and relative humidity r and then based on co-located ERA5 simulations of the same quantities. Differences in spatial resolution between IAGOS and ERA5 are addressed from an aircraft-centered perspective, using 1 km segments, and a model-centered perspective, using 19 km flight sections. Using the aircraft-centered approach, 50 % of the crossings of persistent contrail (PC) regions based on IAGOS are shorter than 9 km, while in ERA5 the median is 155 km. Time-averaged IAGOS data lead to a median crossing length of 66 km. The difference between the two data sets is attributed to the higher variability of r in IAGOS compared to ERA5. The model-centered approach yields similar results, but typical crossing lengths are larger by only up to 10 %. Binary masks of PC formation are created by applying the SAc on the two-dimensional fields of T and r from ERA5. In a second step the morphology of PC regions is also assessed. Half of the PC regions in ERA5 are found to be smaller than ≈ 35 000 km2 (at 200 hPa), and the median of the maximum dimension is shorter than 760 km (at 200 hPa). Furthermore, PC regions tend to be of near-circular shape with a tendency to a slight oval shape and a preferred alignment along the dominant westerly flow. Seasonal, vertical distributions of PC formation potential P are characterized by a maximum between 250 and 200 hPa. P is subject to seasonal variations with a maximum in magnitude and extension during the winter months and a minimum during summer. The horizontal distribution of PC regions suggests that PC regions are likely to appear in the same location on adjacent pressure levels. Climatologies of T , r , wind speed U , and resulting PC formation potential are calculated to identify the constraining effects of T and r on P. PC formation is primarily limited by conditions that are too warm below and conditions that are too dry above the formation region. The distribution of PCs is slanted towards lower altitudes from 30 to 70° N, following lines of constant T and r. For an observed co-location of high U and P , it remains unclear whether PC formation and the jet stream are favored by the same meteorological conditions or if the jet stream itself favors PC occurrence. This analysis suggests that some PC regions will be difficult to avoid by rerouting aircraft because of their large vertical and horizontal extents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of the perturbation to the Earth's energy budget by contrail outbreaks is required for estimating the climate impact of aviation and verifying the climate benefits of proposed contrail avoidance strategies such as aircraft rerouting. Here we identified two successive large‐scale contrail outbreaks developing in clear‐sky conditions in geostationary and polar‐orbiting satellite infrared images of Western Europe lasting from 22–23 June 2020. Their hourly cloud radiative effect, obtained using geostationary satellite cloud retrievals and radiative transfer calculations, is negative or weakly positive during daytime and positive during nighttime. The cumulative energy forcing of the two outbreaks is 7 PJ and −8.5 PJ, with uncertainties of 3 PJ, stemming each from approximately 15–20 flights over periods of 19 and 7 hr, respectively. This study suggests that an automated quantification of contrail outbreak radiative effect is possible, at least for contrails forming in clear sky conditions. Plain Language Summary: Contrail cirrus is produced by aircraft and perturb the energy budget of the Earth. However, the actual size of the perturbation is uncertain. In this study, we calculate the energy budget perturbation of two successive contrail‐cirrus outbreaks over Western Europe from 22–23 June 2020. An infrared image composite allows the identification and tracking of contrails with a 15 min frequency, which is verified by comparison to satellite images with better horizontal resolution from several polar‐orbiting platforms. Cloud properties of the contrail‐cirrus clusters, estimated from geostationary satellite data, are used in radiative transfer calculations. We find that one contrail cirrus outbreak adds an average power of 2 TW over 20 hr, while the other removes 3.3 TW over 8 hr. This cumulative energy depends on the lifespan and cloud properties of the outbreaks. This case study suggests that geostationary satellite observations allow the estimation of the energy perturbation of a contrail outbreak, with encouraging implications for contrail‐cirrus monitoring and the verification of contrail avoidance strategies. Key Points: The cloud radiative effect (CRE) of two successive contrail‐cirrus outbreaks is estimated from geostationary satellite measurementsThese two outbreaks have different CRE sign and magnitude, which can be explained by their different cloud properties and time evolutionsThe study suggests that automated quantification of contrail‐cirrus CRE for monitoring or verification of contrail avoidance is feasible [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New satellite missions promise global reductions in the uncertainties in aerosol optical properties, but it is unclear how those reductions will propagate to uncertainties in the shortwave (SW) direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) and direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF), which are currently large, on the order of at least 20 %. In this work, we build a Monte Carlo framework to calculate the impact of uncertainties in aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA), and the asymmetry parameter on the uncertainty in shortwave DARE and DARF. This framework uses the results of over 2.3 million radiative transfer simulations to calculate global clear-sky DARE and DARF based on a range of uncertainties in present-day and pre-industrial aerosol optical properties, representative of existing and future global observing systems. We find the 1 σ uncertainty varies between ± 0.23 and ± 1.91 W m -2 (5 % and 42 %) for the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) clear-sky DARE and between ± 0.08 and ± 0.47 W m -2 (9 % and 52 %) for the TOA DARF. At the TOA, AOD uncertainty is the main contributor to overall uncertainty except over bright surfaces where SSA uncertainty contributes most. We apply regionally varying uncertainties to represent current measurement uncertainties and find that aerosol optical property uncertainties represent 24 % of TOA DARE and DARF. Reducing regionally varying optical property uncertainties by a factor of 2 would reduce their contributions to TOA DARE and DARF uncertainty proportionally. Applying a simple scaling to all-sky conditions, aerosol optical property uncertainty contributes to about 25 % total uncertainty in TOA, all-sky SW DARE, and DARF. Compared to previous studies which considered uncertainties in non-aerosol variables, our results suggest that the aerosol optical property uncertainty accounts for one-third to half of the total direct SW uncertainty. Recent and future progress in constraining aerosol optical properties using ground-based or satellite retrievals could be translated into DARE and DARF uncertainty using our freely available framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coarse mineral dust particles have been observed much further from the Sahara than expected based on theory. They have different impacts to finer particles on the Earth's radiative budget, and carbon and hydrological cycles, though tend to be under-represented in climate models. We use measurements of the full dust size distribution from aircraft campaigns over the Sahara, Canaries, Cape Verde and Caribbean. We assess the observed and modelled dust size distribution over long-range transport at high vertical resolution using the Met Office Unified Model, which represents dust up to 63.2 μ m diameter, greater than most climate models. In the observations, we find that the mass contribution of coarse particles (d>6.32 μ m) to total mass is independent of 0.55 μ m aerosol optical depth. We show that the model generally replicates the vertical distribution of the total dust mass but transports larger dust particles too low in the atmosphere. Importantly, coarse particles in the model are deposited too quickly, resulting in an underestimation of dust mass that is exacerbated with westwards transport; 20–63 μ m dust mass contribution between 2–3.7 km altitude is underestimated by factors of up to 11 at the Sahara, 150 at the Canaries and 340 at Cape Verde. At the Caribbean, there is negligible modelled contribution of d>20 μ m particles to total mass, compared to 15 % in the observations. This work adds to the growing body of research that demonstrates the need for a process-based evaluation of climate model dust simulations to identify where improvements could be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aviation is a rapidly growing source of climate forcing, and the non-CO2 effective radiative forcing of aviation is approximately twice that of aviation CO2. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding aviation's non-CO2 effects because the radiative forcing of aviation aerosol-cloud interactions, especially with cirrus clouds, is poorly known. Here, we use a large eddy simulation model to quantify the impact of ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) perturbations on the water budget and microphysics of pre-existing cirrus clouds. These perturbations aim to represent the second half of the chain of effects linking aircraft aerosol emissions to changes in ICNC and ice water path. We examine two types of cirrus: warm conveyor belt outflow and gravity wave cirrus, which represent different updraft regimes and formation mechanisms. In both cases, the primary effect of an idealised increase in ICNC is to extend cloud lifetime, with the increase proportional to the magnitude of the ICNC perturbation applied. The effect is more pronounced in the gravity wave cirrus case than in the warm conveyor belt outflow cirrus case because the latter has lower initial ICNC and ice water contents. Quantitatively, the sensitivity of ice water path (IWP) to changes in ICNC, expressed as ∆ln(IWP)/∆ln(ICNC), is 0.06 for gravity wave cirrus and 0.35 for warm conveyor belt outflow cirrus when calculated 45 minutes after imposing the ICNC perturbation. These results suggest that aviation has the potential to increase the lifetime and radiative effects of pre-existing cirrus clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the proposed ways to reduce the climate impact of civil aviation is rerouting aircraft to minimise the formation of warming contrails. As this strategy may increase fuel consumption, it would only be beneficial if the climate impact reduction from the avoided contrails exceeds the negative impact of any additional carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by the rerouted flight. In this study, we calculate the surface temperature response of almost half-a-million flights that crossed the North Atlantic sector in 2019 and compare to the response of hypothetical rerouted flights. The climate impacts of contrails and CO2 are assessed through the perspective of CO2-equivalence metrics, defined here as nine combinations of different definitions and time horizons. We estimate that the total emitted CO2 and the persistent contrails formed will have warmed the climate by 16.9 µK in 2039, 13.5 µK in 2069, and 14.0 µK in 2119. Under a scenario where 1% additional carbon dioxide is enough to reroute all contrail-forming flights and avoid contrail formation completely, total warming would decrease by 4.6 (-27%), 2.4 (-18%), and 1.8 (-13%) µK in 2039, 2069, and 2119, respectively. In most rerouting cases, the results based on the nine different CO2-equivalence metrics agree that rerouting leads to a climate benefit, assuming that contrails are avoided as predicted. But the size of that benefit is very dependent on the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics, contrail efficacy and CO2 penalty. Sources of uncertainty not considered here could also heavily influence the perceived benefit. In about 10% of rerouting cases, the climate damage resulting from contrail avoidance indicated by CO2-equivalence metrics integrated over a 100-year time horizon is not predicted by metrics integrated over a 20-year time horizon. This study highlights, using North Atlantic flights as a case study, the implications of the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance, but the choice is ultimately political. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cooling of the Earth's climate through the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds offsets an unknown fraction of greenhouse gas warming. An increase in the amount of water inside liquid-phase clouds induced by aerosols, through the suppression of rain formation, has been postulated to lead to substantial cooling, which would imply that the Earth's surface temperature is highly sensitive to anthropogenic forcing. Here we provide direct observational evidence that, instead of a strong increase, aerosols cause a relatively weak average decrease in the amount of water in liquid-phase clouds compared with unpolluted clouds. Measurements of polluted clouds downwind of various anthropogenic sources--such as oil refineries, smelters, coal-fired power plants, cities, wildfires and ships--reveal that aerosol-induced cloud-water increases, caused by suppressed rain formation, and decreases, caused by enhanced evaporation of cloud water, partially cancel each other out. We estimate that the observed decrease in cloud water offsets 23% of the global climate-cooling effect caused by aerosol-induced increases in the concentration of cloud droplets. These findings invalidate the hypothesis that increases in cloud water cause a substantial climate cooling effect and translate into reduced uncertainty in projections of future climate. Satellite data for cloud tracks downwind of major pollution sources show a relatively small global average decrease in cloud water caused by anthropogenic aerosols, invalidating claims that aerosol-induced effects contribute substantially to climate cooling., Author(s): Velle Toll [sup.1] [sup.2] , Matthew Christensen [sup.3] , Johannes Quaas [sup.4] , Nicolas Bellouin [sup.1] Author Affiliations: (1) Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK (2) Institute [...]

The contrail formation potential as well as its temporal and spatial distribution are estimated using meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity from the ERA5 re-analysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Contrail formation is estimated with the Schmidt–Appleman criterion (SAc), solely considering thermodynamic effects. The focus is on a region ranging from Eastern United States to central Europe. Around 18,000 flight trajectories from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) are used as a representative subset of transatlantic, commercial flights. The typical crossing distance through a contrail-prone area is determined based on IAGOS measurements of temperature T and relative humidity r , then based on co-located ERA5 simulations of the same quantities. For IAGOS, 50 % of the crossings of persistent contrail (PC) regions are shorter than 9 km, while in ERA5 the median is 155 km. Time-averaged IAGOS data lead to a median crossing length of 66 km. The difference between the two data sets are attributed to the higher variability of r in IAGOS compared to ERA5. Binary masks of PC formation are created by applying the SAc on the two-dimensional fields of T and r from ERA5. In a second step the morphology of PC regions is also assessed. Half of the PC regions are found to be smaller than ≈35000 km2 (at 200 hPa) and the median of the maximum dimension is shorter than 760 km (at 200 hPa). Furthermore, PC regions tend to be of near-circular shape with a tendency to a slight oval shape and a preferred alignment along the dominant westerly flow. Seasonal, vertical distributions of PC formation potential P are characterized by a maximum between 250 and 200 hPa. P is subject to seasonal variations with a maximum in magnitude and extension during the winter months and a minimum during summer. The horizontal distribution of PC regions suggests that PC regions are likely to appear in the same location on adjacent pressure levels. Climatologies of T , r , wind speed U , and resulting PC formation potential are calculated to identify the constraining effects of T and r on P. PC formation is primarily limited by too warm conditions below and too dry conditions above the formation region. The distribution of PCs is slanted towards lower altitudes from 30° N to 70° N, following lines of constant T and r. For an observed co-location of high U and P it remains unclear whether PC formation and the jet stream are favored by the same meteorological conditions or if the jet stream itself favors PC occurrence. This analysis suggests that some PC regions will be difficult to avoid by rerouting aircraft because of their large vertical and horizontal extents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. We document its probability density function (PDF) using long-term Measurement of Ozone and water vapour on Airbus aircraft In-service programme (MOZAIC) and the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) observations over the period 1995–2022 in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) between 325 hPa and 175 hPa. The characteristics of the RHi PDF differ in the UT and in LS of the high-latitudes (HL) and mid-latitudes (ML) regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In the LS, the probability (P) of observing a certain RHi decreases exponentially with increasing RHi. The rate of this decrease in P with increasing RHi is greater in supersaturated than in subsaturated conditions. In the UT, P first increases exponentially under subsaturated conditions then decreases exponentially in supersaturated conditions. Because of these different behaviours, the PDF for the combined UT and LS is bimodal. In contrast to the HL and the ML regions, P in the tropical troposphere decreases exponentially with increasing RHi. The different forms of PDF, in the tropics and in the higher latitude regions (ML and HL), lead to a global PDF of RHi in subsaturated tropospheric conditions that is almost uniform. This PDF shows a weak mode in the vicinity of 100 %, which can be associated essentially with the presence of cirrus clouds. These different characteristics of the RHi PDF exhibit some differences depending on the pressure level. These findings invite caution when using MOZAIC and IAGOS measurements to calibrate large-scale simulations of RHi. The variability of RHi properties associated with that of the temperature has implications for the formation of contrails. We examined the impact of switching from the current fuel of aircraft, kerosene, to bio-ethanol, or to liquid-hydrogen on the frequency of contrails using the Schmidt-Appleman criterion. We show that bio-ethanol and more so hydrogen would produce more contrails. The impact of a potential change from kerosene to one of these two alternative fuels decreases with the decreasing pressure level but increases when moving from the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere to the tropics. We recommend that the comparison between models and observations be performed regionally and for the UT and LS separately. Finally, we emphasize that investigations on the impact on the contrail occurrence of switching from fossil kerosene to more sustainable fuels must be carried out in various climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The skill of the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at simulating upper atmospheric temperature and relative humidity is assessed by using five years of In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) observations. IAGOS flight trajectories are used to extract co-located meteorological conditions – temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed – and are compared with the IAGOS measurements. This assess ment is particularly relevant to the study of contrail formation, so focuses on the highly frequented air space that spans the Eastern United States over the North Atlantic and to central Europe. The comparison is performed in terms of mean, median, probability density functions, and a confusion matrix. For temperature a good agreement is identified with a maximum bias of − 0.4 K at the 200 hPa level. Larger biases are found for relative humidity with up to − 5.5 % at the 250 hPa level. To remove the systematic biases, which mostly tend towards too dry and cold, a bias correction method, based on a multivariate quan tile technique, is proposed and applied. After the correction the bias in temperature is reduced to below 0.1 K and in relative humidity to below − 1.5 %. To estimate the representation of contrail occurrence in ERA5, data points from IAGOS as well as corrected and uncorrected data points from ERA5 of temperature and relative humidity are flagged for contrail formation using the Schmidt-Appleman–criterion. In the IAGOS data set 39.2 and 16.9 % of the samples represent conditions for non-persistent contrails and persistent contrails, respectively. The corresponding numbers for original ERA5 analyses are 40.8 and 17.5 %, respectively, indicating good agreement overall. Applying a proposed quantile mapping correction method and removing the biases in temperature and relative humidity has only a small effect on the distributions but leads to an overestima tion of non-persistent contrail occurrence (44.0 %) and underestimation of persistent contrails (16.8 %). Differences in contrail occurrence that remain after the bias correction are traced back to the underling biases in temperature and relative humidity, indicating that ERA5 is either too dry and warm or cold and moist with largest differences at 250 hPa and decreasing with increasing altitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural cirrus clouds and contrails cover about 30 % of the Earth's mid-latitudes and up to 70 % of the tropics. Due to their widespread occurrence, cirrus clouds have a considerable impact on the Earth energy budget, which, on average, leads to a warming net radiative effect (solar + thermal infrared). However, whether the instantaneous radiative effect (RE), which in some cases corresponds to a radiative forcing, of natural cirrus or contrails is positive or negative depends on their microphysical, macrophysical, and optical properties, as well as the radiative properties of the environment. This is further complicated by the fact that the actual ice crystal shape is often unknown, and thus, ice clouds remain one of the components that are least understood in the Earth's radiative budget. The present study aims to investigate the dependency of the effect on cirrus RE on eight parameters, namely solar zenith angle, ice water content, ice crystal effective radius, cirrus temperature, surface albedo, surface temperature, cloud optical thickness of an underlying liquid water cloud, and three ice crystal shapes. In total, 283 500 plane-parallel radiative transfer simulations have been performed, not including three-dimensional scattering effects. Parameter ranges are selected that are typically associated with natural cirrus and contrails. In addition, the effect of variations in the relative humidity profile and the ice cloud geometric thickness have been investigated for a sub-set of the simulations. The multi-dimensionality and complexity of the eight-dimensional parameter space makes it impractical to discuss all potential configurations in detail. Therefore, specific cases are selected and discussed. For a given parameter combination, the largest impact on solar, thermal-infrared (TIR), and net RE is related to the ice crystal effective radius. The second most important parameter is ice water content, which equally impacts the solar and terrestrial RE. The solar RE of cirrus is also determined by solar zenith angle, surface albedo, liquid cloud optical thickness, and ice crystal shape (in descending priority). RE in the TIR spectrum is dominated by surface temperature, ice cloud temperature, liquid water cloud optical thickness, and ice crystal shape. Net RE is controlled by surface albedo, solar zenith angle, and surface temperature in decreasing importance. The relative importance of the studied parameters differs, depending on the ambient conditions. Furthermore, and during nighttime the net RE is equal to the TIR RE. The data set generated in this work is publicly available. It can be used as a lookup table to extract the RE of cirrus clouds, contrails, and contrail cirrus instead of full radiative transfer calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New satellite missions promise global reductions in the uncertainties of aerosol optical properties but it is unclear how those reductions will propagate to uncertainties in the shortwave direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) and radiative forcing (DARF), which are currently large, on the order of at least 20 %. In this work we build a Monte-Carlo framework to calculate the impact of uncertainties in aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA) and asymmetry parameter on the uncertainty in shortwave DARE and DARF. This framework uses the results of over 2.3 million radiative transfer simulations to calculate global clear-sky DARE and DARF based on a range of aerosol optical property uncertainties, representative of existing and future global observing systems. We find the one-sigma uncertainty varies between ±0.23 to ±1.91 Wm-2 (5 and 42 %) for the top of atmosphere (TOA) clear-sky DARE and between ±0.08 to ±0.47 Wm-2 (9 and 52 %) for the TOA DARF. At the TOA, AOD uncertainty is the main contributor to overall uncertainty, except over bright surfaces where SSA uncertainty contributes most. We apply regionally varying uncertainties to represent current measurement uncertainties, finding that aerosol optical property uncertainties represent 24 % of TOA DARE and DARF. Reducing regionally varying optical property uncertainties by a factor of two would reduce their contributions to TOA DARE and DARF uncertainty proportionally. Scaling to all-sky conditions, aerosol optical property uncertainty contributes to about 25 % total uncertainty in TOA, all-sky DARE and DARF. Compared to previous studies which considered uncertainties in non-aerosol variables, our results suggest that the aerosol optical property uncertainty accounts for a third to a half of total uncertainty. Recent and future progress in constraining aerosol optical properties using ground-based or satellite retrievals could be translated into DARE and DARF uncertainty using our freely available framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]