Search

Unemployment and inflation lower well-being. The macroeconomist Arthur Okun characterized the negative effects of unemployment and inflation by the misery index—the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. This paper makes use of a large European data set, covering the period 1975–2013, to estimate happiness equations in which an individual subjective measure of life satisfaction is regressed against unemployment and inflation rate (controlling for personal characteristics, country, and year fixed effects). We find, conventionally, that both higher unemployment and higher inflation lower well-being. We also discover that unemployment depresses well-being more than inflation. We characterize this well-being trade-off between unemployment and inflation using what we describe as the misery ratio. Our estimates with European data imply that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers well-being by more than five times as much as a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation rate.

This paper discusses how quantitative data analysis in the social sciences can engage with and exploit an e-Infrastructure. We highlight how a number of activities which are central to quantitative data analysis, referred to as ‘data management’, can benefit from e-infrastructure support. We conclude by discussing how these issues are relevant to the DAMES (Data Management through e-Social Science) research Node, an ongoing project that aims to develop e-Infrastructural resources for quantitative data analysis in the social sciences.

The data analysed in this paper will show that whilst the end of the recession may be approaching, there is no strong evidence of any sustained or substantial recovery. Indeed, as highlighted in the UK section, there is no clear evidence that the mechanisms upon which the government are relying will generate a significant upturn. The UK economy is notoriously unresponsive to price signals, and while one should support governments efforts to increase this sensitivity, historical evidence is at best equivocal on the efficacy of this approach. For example, while the response of manufacturing investment to changes in output is unambiguously positive, the response to changes in the cost of capital is unclear. Indeed the Treasury have been unable to establish a significant relationship between manufacturing investment and capital cost and, in consequence, base their forecasts on the assumption that such a link exists. Further, any positive effects which might stem from a fall in interest rates will be dampened by the considerable spare capacity in the manufacturing sector brought about by the depth of the current recession.

Present policies seem highly unlikely to return the UK economy to even the dismal growth path of the sixties and early seventies. This conclusion, unwelcome though it is, is made even more so by two additional factors. The first is the government's refusal to call their chosen strategy into question even in the face of an ever deepening recession and of a sustained logical onslaught on its theoretical underpinnings. The second is the absence of a coherent alternative strategy which carries the prospect of anything more than short-term amelioration of present problems. Further analysis of current UK economic conditions is provided, as too is an analysis of the world's economic performance.

The purpose of this Brief is to describe some of the main features of housing in Scotland as well as the implementation of housing policies. This is important as the state of housing in Scotland has long been recognised as a major determinant of the high levels of net migration, poor job mobility and of urban blight. After describing the Scottish housing stock, the final sections discuss trends in government expenditure, changes in house prices and the current debate over the sale of public authority housing.

The causes of the present recession are generally misunderstood. While it is undoubtedly the case that the growth of the world economy has been reduced, this has, as yet, had little effect on the UK. Exports have been surprisingly buoyant, benefiting perhaps from orders obtained when the pound was at a much lower level. Detailed forecasts, as well as additional analyses of the latest Scottish economic data, is provided to better understand Scotland's current economic predicament.

In the light of recent developments, it is not surprising that the state of the Scottish economy remains depressed. The recently announced closure of the ICI factory at Ardeer, coupled with the predictions of reductions in the workforce of a number of Scottish manufacturing establishments suggests that the prediction that the Scottish manufacturing workforce will decline to 559 thousand by the end of the year will be fairly accurate. The government's intention is to pursue its twin strategies of reducing the rate of growth of the money supply and the level of public spending for the foreseeable future. Even though both sides of industry have pleaded for a reduction in interest rates, the Treasury has not been swayed by their arguments, believing that high rates of interest are the only effective means of controlling the rate of growth of credit. Requests for an expansion of public spending have been similarly set aside. This brief paper will provide further analysis of the latest Scottish economic and financial data.

Throughout the Quarterly Economic Commentary constant reference is made to the Scottish Index of Production (SIOP) reflecting its importance as an indicator of Scotland's industrial performance. The purpose of this Student's Brief will be to outline the construction of this index and to compare Scotland's performance relative to the UK Index of Production (UKIOP).

Economic developments throughout the world this year have been dominated by reactions to increases in the price of crude oil which have taken place over the last two years. These reactions will continue to dominate events in 1981.

The Scottish fishing industry is divided into two main sectors: catching and processing. The brief explores the latest economic data of this important industrial sector and provides an analysis of the influence of fishery policy on economic growth.