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The evolution of new biochemical activities frequently involves complex dependencies between mutations and rapid evolutionary radiation. Mutation co-occurrence and covariation have previously been used to identify compensating mutations that are the result of physical contacts and preserve protein function and fold. Here, we model pairwise functional dependencies and higher order interactions that enable evolution of new protein functions. We use a network model to find complex dependencies between mutations resulting from evolutionary trade-offs and pleiotropic effects. We present a method to construct these networks and to identify functionally interacting mutations in both extant and reconstructed ancestral sequences (Network Analysis of Protein Adaptation). The time ordering of mutations can be incorporated into the networks through phylogenetic reconstruction. We apply NAPA to three distantly homologous β-lactamase protein clusters (TEM, CTX-M-3, and OXA-51), each of which has experienced recent evolutionary radiation under substantially different selective pressures. By analyzing the network properties of each protein cluster, we identify key adaptive mutations, positive pairwise interactions, different adaptive solutions to the same selective pressure, and complex evolutionary trajectories likely to increase protein fitness. We also present evidence that incorporating information from phylogenetic reconstruction and ancestral sequence inference can reduce the number of spurious links in the network, whereas preserving overall network community structure. The analysis does not require structural or biochemical data. In contrast to function-preserving mutation dependencies, which are frequently from structural contacts, gain-of-function mutation dependencies are most commonly between residues distal in protein structure.

The advent of next-generation sequencing has dramatically decreased the cost for whole-genome sequencing and increased the viability for its application in research and clinical care. The Personal Genome Project (PGP) provides unrestricted access to genomes of individuals and their associated phenotypes. This resource enabled the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) to create a community challenge to assess the bioinformatics community's ability to predict traits from whole genomes. In the CAGI PGP challenge, researchers were asked to predict whether an individual had a particular trait or profile based on their whole genome. Several approaches were used to assess submissions, including ROC AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve), probability rankings, the number of correct predictions, and statistical significance simulations. Overall, we found that prediction of individual traits is difficult, relying on a strong knowledge of trait frequency within the general population, whereas matching genomes to trait profiles relies heavily upon a small number of common traits including ancestry, blood type, and eye color. When a rare genetic disorder is present, profiles can be matched when one or more pathogenic variants are identified. Prediction accuracy has improved substantially over the last 6 years due to improved methodology and a better understanding of features.

Genetic screening is becoming possible on an unprecedented scale. However, its utility remains controversial. Although most variant genotypes cannot be easily interpreted, many individuals nevertheless attempt to interpret their genetic information. Initiatives such as the Personal Genome Project (PGP) and Illumina's Understand Your Genome are sequencing thousands of adults, collecting phenotypic information and developing computational pipelines to identify the most important variant genotypes harbored by each individual. These pipelines consider database and allele frequency annotations and bioinformatics classifications. We propose that the next step will be to integrate these different sources of information to estimate the probability that a given individual has specific phenotypes of clinical interest. To this end, we have designed a Bayesian probabilistic model to predict the probability of dichotomous phenotypes. When applied to a cohort from PGP, predictions of Gilbert syndrome, Graves' disease, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and various blood groups were accurate, as individuals manifesting the phenotype in question exhibited the highest, or among the highest, predicted probabilities. Thirty-eight PGP phenotypes (26%) were predicted with area-under-the-ROC curve (AUC)>0.7, and 23 (15.8%) of these were statistically significant, based on permutation tests. Moreover, in a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) blinded prediction experiment, the models were used to match 77 PGP genomes to phenotypic profiles, generating the most accurate prediction of 16 submissions, according to an independent assessor. Although the models are currently insufficiently accurate for diagnostic utility, we expect their performance to improve with growth of publicly available genomics data and model refinement by domain experts.

Objective: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are non-invasive precursor lesions that can progress to invasive pancreatic cancer and are classified as low-grade or high-grade based on the morphology of the neoplastic epithelium. We aimed to compare genetic alterations in low-grade and high-grade regions of the same IPMN in order to identify molecular alterations underlying neoplastic progression., Design: We performed multiregion whole exome sequencing on tissue samples from 17 IPMNs with both low-grade and high-grade dysplasia (76 IPMN regions, including 49 from low-grade dysplasia and 27 from high-grade dysplasia). We reconstructed the phylogeny for each case, and we assessed mutations in a novel driver gene in an independent cohort of 63 IPMN cyst fluid samples., Results: Our multiregion whole exome sequencing identified KLF4 , a previously unreported genetic driver of IPMN tumorigenesis, with hotspot mutations in one of two codons identified in >50% of the analyzed IPMNs. Mutations in KLF4 were significantly more prevalent in low-grade regions in our sequenced cases. Phylogenetic analyses of whole exome sequencing data demonstrated diverse patterns of IPMN initiation and progression. Hotspot mutations in KLF4 were also identified in an independent cohort of IPMN cyst fluid samples, again with a significantly higher prevalence in low-grade IPMNs., Conclusion: Hotspot mutations in KLF4 occur at high prevalence in IPMNs. Unique among pancreatic driver genes, KLF4 mutations are enriched in low-grade IPMNs. These data highlight distinct molecular features of low-grade and high-grade dysplasia and suggest diverse pathways to high-grade dysplasia via the IPMN pathway., Competing Interests: Competing interests: LDW receives research support from Applied Materials. VBG is an employee of Personal Genome Diagnostics. The other authors declare no conflict of interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)