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Nonlinear system identification remains an important open challenge across research and academia. Large numbers of novel approaches are seen published each year, each presenting improvements or extensions to existing methods. It is natural, therefore, to consider how one might choose between these competing models. Benchmark datasets provide one clear way to approach this question. However, to make meaningful inference based on benchmark performance it is important to understand how well a new method performs comparatively to results available with well-established methods. This paper presents a set of ten baseline techniques and their relative performances on five popular benchmarks. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate thought and discussion regarding objective comparison of identification methodologies.

The importance of proper data normalization for deep neural networks is well known. However, in continuous-time state-space model estimation, it has been observed that improper normalization of either the hidden state or hidden state derivative of the model estimate, or even of the time interval can lead to numerical and optimization challenges with deep learning based methods. This results in a reduced model quality. In this contribution, we show that these three normalization tasks are inherently coupled. Due to the existence of this coupling, we propose a solution to all three normalization challenges by introducing a normalization constant at the state derivative level. We show that the appropriate choice of the normalization constant is related to the dynamics of the to-be-identified system and we derive multiple methods of obtaining an effective normalization constant. We compare and discuss all the normalization strategies on a benchmark problem based on experimental data from a cascaded tanks system and compare our results with other methods of the identification literature., Comment: This work has been accepted for presentation at the 20th IFAC Symposium on System Identification 2024

Available methods for identification of stochastic dynamical systems from input-output data generally impose restricting structural assumptions on either the noise structure in the data-generating system or the possible state probability distributions. In this paper, we introduce a novel identification method of such systems, which results in a dynamical model that is able to produce the time-varying output distribution accurately without taking restrictive assumptions on the data-generating process. The method is formulated by first deriving a novel and exact representation of a wide class of nonlinear stochastic systems in a so-called meta-state-space form, where the meta-state can be interpreted as a parameter vector of a state probability function space parameterization. As the resulting representation of the meta-state dynamics is deterministic, we can capture the stochastic system based on a deterministic model, which is highly attractive for identification. The meta-state-space representation often involves unknown and heavily nonlinear functions, hence, we propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based identification method capable of efficiently learning nonlinear meta-state-space models. We demonstrate that the proposed identification method can obtain models with a log-likelihood close to the theoretical limit even for highly nonlinear, highly stochastic systems., Comment: Accepted in Automatica

The SUBNET neural network architecture has been developed to identify nonlinear state-space models from input-output data. To achieve this, it combines the rolled-out nonlinear state-space equations and a state encoder function, both parameterised as neural networks The encoder function is introduced to reconstruct the current state from past input-output data. Hence, it enables the forward simulation of the rolled-out state-space model. While this approach has shown to provide high-accuracy and consistent model estimation, its convergence can be significantly improved by efficient initialization of the training process. This paper focuses on such an initialisation of the subspace encoder approach using the Best Linear Approximation (BLA). Using the BLA provided state-space matrices and its associated reconstructability map, both the state-transition part of the network and the encoder are initialized. The performance of the improved initialisation scheme is evaluated on a Wiener-Hammerstein simulation example and a benchmark dataset. The results show that for a weakly nonlinear system, the proposed initialisation based on the linear reconstructability map results in a faster convergence and a better model quality., Comment: Accepted for presentation at the IFAC World Congress 2023

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to be flexible and effective function estimators for identification of nonlinear state-space models. However, if the resulting models are used directly for nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC), the resulting nonlinear optimization problem is often overly complex due the size of the network, requires the use of high-order observers to track the states of the ANN model, and the overall control scheme exploits little of the structural properties or available autograd tools for these models. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to auto-convert ANN state-space models to linear parameter-varying (LPV) form and solve predictive control problems by successive solutions of linear model predictive problems, corresponding to quadratic programs (QPs). Furthermore, we show how existing ANN identification methods, such as the SUBNET method that uses a state encoder, can provide efficient implementation of MPCs. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via a simulation study on an unbalanced disc system., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, submitted to CDC with L-CSS option

Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for nonlinear system identification has proven to be a promising approach, but despite of all recent research efforts, many practical and theoretical problems still remain open. Specifically, noise handling and models, issues of consistency and reliable estimation under minimisation of the prediction error are the most severe problems. The latter comes with numerous practical challenges such as explosion of the computational cost in terms of the number of data samples and the occurrence of instabilities during optimization. In this paper, we aim to overcome these issues by proposing a method which uses a truncated prediction loss and a subspace encoder for state estimation. The truncated prediction loss is computed by selecting multiple truncated subsections from the time series and computing the average prediction loss. To obtain a computationally efficient estimation method that minimizes the truncated prediction loss, a subspace encoder represented by an artificial neural network is introduced. This encoder aims to approximate the state reconstructability map of the estimated model to provide an initial state for each truncated subsection given past inputs and outputs. By theoretical analysis, we show that, under mild conditions, the proposed method is locally consistent, increases optimization stability, and achieves increased data efficiency by allowing for overlap between the subsections. Lastly, we provide practical insights and user guidelines employing a numerical example and state-of-the-art benchmark results., Comment: Accepted in Automatica

Continuous-time (CT) modeling has proven to provide improved sample efficiency and interpretability in learning the dynamical behavior of physical systems compared to discrete-time (DT) models. However, even with numerous recent developments, the CT nonlinear state-space (NL-SS) model identification problem remains to be solved in full, considering common experimental aspects such as the presence of external inputs, measurement noise, latent states, and general robustness. This paper presents a novel estimation method that addresses all these aspects and that can obtain state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks with compact fully connected neural networks capturing the CT dynamics. The proposed estimation method called the subspace encoder approach (SUBNET) ascertains these results by efficiently approximating the complete simulation loss by evaluating short simulations on subsections of the data, by using an encoder function to estimate the initial state for each subsection and a novel state-derivative normalization to ensure stability and good numerical conditioning of the training process. We prove that the use of subsections increases cost function smoothness together with the necessary requirements for the existence of the encoder function and we show that the proposed state-derivative normalization is essential for reliable estimation of CT NL-SS models., Comment: Accepted to ICLR 2023

The Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) framework provides a modeling and control design toolchain to address nonlinear (NL) system behavior via linear surrogate models. Despite major research effort on LPV data-driven modeling, a key shortcoming of the current identification theory is that often the scheduling variable is assumed to be a given measured signal in the data set. In case of identifying an LPV model of a NL system, the selection of the scheduling map, which describes the relation to the measurable scheduling signal, is put on the users' shoulder, with only limited supporting tools available. This choice however greatly affects the usability and complexity of the resulting LPV model. This paper presents a deep-learning-based approach to provide joint estimation of a scheduling map and an LPV state-space model of a NL system from input-output data, and has consistency guarantees under general innovation-type noise conditions. Its efficiency is demonstrated on a realistic identification problem., Comment: Accepted for presentation at the 61st IEEE Conference on Decision and Control