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Studies of DNA from ancient samples provide a valuable opportunity to gain insight into past evolutionary and demographic processes. Bayesian phylogenetic methods can estimate evolutionary rates and timescales from ancient DNA sequences, with the ages of the samples acting as calibrations for the molecular clock. Sample ages are often estimated using radiocarbon dating, but the associated measurement error is rarely taken into account. In addition, the total uncertainty quantified by converting radiocarbon dates to calendar dates is typically ignored. Here, we present a tool for incorporating both of these sources of uncertainty into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA. This empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler (ECRS) integrates the age uncertainty for each ancient sequence over the calibrated probability density function estimated for its radiocarbon date and associated error. We use the ECRS to analyse three ancient DNA data sets. Accounting for radiocarbon-dating and calibration error appeared to have little impact on estimates of evolutionary rates and related parameters for these data sets. However, analyses of other data sets, particularly those with few or only very old radiocarbon dates, might be more sensitive to using artificially precise sample ages and should benefit from use of the ECRS.

The Canadian oil sands underlie 142,000 km2 of the boreal forest in northeastern Alberta. Oil sands production greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased from 15 million tonnes (Mt) to 55 Mt between 1990 and 2011. Their production represents the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in Canada. A large body of studies show that oil sands industries have large environmental impacts, including effects on climate, land, water, and air quality but GHG emissions from oil sands land use disturbance and future land use impacts have yet to be examined in detail and the associated literature is scarce and incomplete. Our paper examines the historical and potential land use change and GHG emissions associated with oil sands development in Canada. Disturbance occurred between 1985 and 2009 from oil sands development were identified using remote sensing technique and mapped onto spatially explicit soil, biomass and peatlands carbon maps. We found that land use and GHG disturbance of oil sands production, especially in-situ technology that will be the dominant technology of choice for future oil sands development, are greater than previously reported. We estimate additional 500 km2 and 2,400 km2 of boreal forest including carbon-rich peatlands would be disturbed from surface mining and in-situ production, respectively, between 2012 and 2030; releasing additional 107–182 million tonnes of GHG from land use alone. Future efforts to monitor land use impacts of in-situ production are needed to reduce landscape impacts and associated GHG emissions. In addition, land reclamation after oil sands projects needs to be enforced for broad ecological benefits together with GHG benefits.

The teleconnection between tropical and extratropical climates in the North Pacific and continental regions of eastern Asia and western North America is known to vary on decadal to multidecadal time scales. In this study, the teleconnection pattern is studied with observational and reanalysis data products. The regional focus is set on the Hawaiian Islands in the central subtropical part of the North Pacific. By analysing correlations between regional climate indices and large‐scale climate modes during the years 1980 and 2014, it was found that the correlation between El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the synoptic weather activity over the Hawaiian Islands decreased over time. Composite analysis of the geopotential height anomalies and upper level winds suggest that the systematic shift in the North Pacific Jet (NPJ) position had an impact on the teleconnection between tropical Pacific SST and winter storm activity and precipitation variability in Hawai'i. The change in the correlations and in the NPJ structure coincides with a transition from the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) towards a neutral and weak negative state. This observation‐based study provides a central subtropical Pacific viewpoint in support of the growing body of research studies that have reported a major shift in the Pacific climate system during the mid‐1990s. The article further discusses the potential role of decadal‐scale changes in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) phase in changing the strength of the ENSO teleconnection with synoptic activity over the Hawaiian Islands. The results of this study are relevant to paleoclimate interpretation of individual proxy records as well as for regional downscaling of future rainfall for the Hawaiian Islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change models project an increase in the frequency and duration of drought globally. Changes in rainfall are expected to have particularly detrimental effects on seedlings due to their inability to reach deep water sources. We conducted a greenhouse experiment to test how the timing of watering affects seedling performance, physiology, and morphology in a keystone island endemic tree, Metrosideros polymorpha. Seedlings were grown for 60 days in one of five conditions: control treatment with daily watering to 100% field capacity (FC), a 28-day pulse drought with no water, and three groups maintained at 80% FC and watered every 2, 7, or 14 days. Seedling drought tolerance depended on the duration of drought; growth for plants watered to 80% FC every 2 or 14 days was comparable to 100% FC plants, but was reduced in the 28-day pulse drought and 7-day 80% FC. Survival was high in all treatments except the pulse drought. Stomatal conductance, chlorophyll content, and C:N ratio were positively related to height and biomass under drought. Traits associated with resource investment, fluorescence, and water use were plastic in their expression, shifting under drought compared to control conditions. M. polymorpha seedlings exhibit trait plasticity that allows them to tolerate drought, but its duration and intensity influence their survival and growth. Our results highlight the need for experimental studies manipulating temporal variation in water with explicit consideration of the role of trait plasticity in drought tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides the first decadally resolved chironomid and organic geochemistry record of the Irish Neolithic from a small lake adjacent to the Carrowkeel-Keshcorran complex in County Sligo, Ireland. Chironomid (non-biting midge fly) sub-fossils and lake sediment geochemistry (δ13C, δ15N and C:N) from the Templevanny Lough core were used to assess the timing and magnitude of within-lake responses to Neolithic farming activity. When compared with decadally resolved pollen and macroscopic charcoal records from the same core, the limnological data show a direct influence of prehistoric farming on a freshwater lake system through nutrient loading and lake eutrophication. Elevated nutrient levels, suggesting a more productive lake system, and a subsequent turnover in the chironomid community indicate a period of intensive farming activity from c. 3790–3620 BC in the early Neolithic. This was followed by a decline in farming with short periods of small-scale human activity, exemplified through nutrient loading and short-lived increases in eutrophic chironomid taxa during the middle to late Neolithic. A return of farming activity can be seen in all proxy data in the late Neolithic (c. 2720–2480 BC). The chironomid community composition typically lagged land-use change by c. 10–20 years and exhibited predictable and proportional responses to agricultural activity. The timing and magnitude of limnological changes show that land-use, rather than climate, is the main control on chironomids at Templevanny Lough, thus showing the potential prominence of the anthropogenic signal during the Neolithic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]