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This dissertation contributes to systems engineering (SE) by introducing and demonstrating a novel graph-based design repository (GBDR) tool. GBDR enables engineers to leverage system design information from a heterogenous set of system models created using multiple model based systems engineering (MBSE) software tools as an integrated body of knowledge. Specifically, the research provides a set of approaches that allow the use of system models described in Systems Modeling Language and Lifecycle Modeling Language as an integrated body of design information. The coalesced body of system design information serves to support concept ideation and analysis within SE. The research accomplishes this by using a graph database to store system model information imported from digital artifacts created by MBSE tools and applying principles from graph theory and semantic web technologies to identify likely connections and equivalent concepts across system models, modeling languages, and metamodels. The research demonstrates that the presented tool can import, store, synthesize, search, display, distribute, and export information from multiple MBSE tools. As a practical demonstration, feasible subsystem design alternatives for a small unmanned aircraft system government reference architecture are identified from within a set of existing system models., OSD CAPE, Civilian, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis explores alternative fuel options for unmanned systems in the Department of Defense (DOD). The use of traditional fuels in warfare has become a major concern for the department, prompting a search for alternative fuels that may improve operational performance by increasing the time on station for future systems. To address this challenge, this thesis selected hydrogen, methanol, and ethanol as potential alternative fuel candidates and conducted simulations. A simulation program called ExtendSim was used to conduct simulations and determine the operational availability of systems employing each fuel type. Operational availability is a crucial parameter and outcome in the choice of the best alternative fuel. The simulations were performed under various constraints, including tank weight and volume, launch decks, and refueling spots. The results showed that liquid hydrogen when constrained by the fuel weight of existing systems, had the highest operational availability. Use of hydrogen fuel showed a potential to increase operational availability from 0.74, using traditional propellants, to 0.92 using hydrogen fuel. The study also revealed the impact of the number of refilling spots and obstacles on the overall results, which means they affected the results and outcome of the operational availability. This research provides valuable insights into the development of alternative fuels for unmanned systems in the Department of Defense., Captain, Republic of Korea Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Efforts to reduce dependence on existing fossil fuels and decouple from logistics trains are becoming critical for the U.S. military. Hydrogen, a potential alternative fuel, offers three interesting characteristics: it is the most energy-dense source short of a nuclear reaction; it can be used in ways that do not generate heat or harmful chemical substances; and it can be made from seawater. This study defines an operational concept for an unmanned carrier with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) fueled by hydrogen and models this system to ascertain operational implications for a future fleet executing Distributed Maritime Operations as a hybrid force. An ExtendSim model is developed and used to analyze the operational concept with the proposed carrier's physical and functional attributes while assuming existing UAV technology. Operational availability is used as the fundamental comparison. The resulting analyses highlight three major findings. UAV maximum endurance is the most important factor in increasing operational availability. The second most important but closely related factor is fuel type, with liquid hydrogen fuel showing a 7% increase in operational availability over JP-5 for the explored scenarios. The third most important factor is the number of UAV maintenance bays. These three factors account for more than 80% of the statistical variability in the model and are important design points for operationalizing hydrogen as a future carrier aviation fuel.

Many unmanned undersea and aerial systems currently in development are looking for alternative energy sources, including hydrogen, to maximize operational reach and persistence. Current Expeditionary Advance Base Operations (EABO) processes are heavily reliant on logistics and depleting petroleum sources. This capstone project will analyze the potential use of hydrogen fuel generated via a mobile, independent system to address logistics and fuel depletion concerns for EABO.

The employment of Long-Range Fires is a high priority for the U.S. Navy, addressing the capability of forces to coordinate an emerging arsenal of deep strike weapons that can be launched from an array of joint assets against critical enemy assets at sea or hardened facilities on land. Additionally, the Long-Range Fires process must be resilient in a degraded or denied environment. However, coordinating Long-Range Fires encompasses a complex set of actions, to include target prioritization and development, command and control, tasking, kinetic and non-kinetic fires, battle damage assessment, rearming and contested logistics. Our approach leverages recent Navy-sponsored MBSE research, simulation, and analysis to include projects involving joint fires within Distributed Maritime Operations and feasibility of deploying hypersonic missiles on U.S. surface ships. We apply a similar approach here but augment it with a system of systems analysis of Long-Range Fires in a degraded and denied environment as part of a timely and relevant joint operational scenario. We examine significant design decisions and operational parameters, as well as appropriate measures of effectiveness, in generating successful Long-Range Fires through systems architecture development and simulation analysis.

This thesis analyzes the impact of deploying loitering munitions and tactical drones with a company-level armored combat team in an offensive urban operation, using Map Aware Non-Uniform Automata (MANA) as the simulation tool. An armored combat team of the Armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT) was modelled as part of an offensive urban operation, as a baseline to understand the impacts of Raven RQ-11 and M109A6 Howitzer, subsequently replacing them with the loitering munitions and tactical drones. The design of experiment incorporates a total of seven performance parameters of loitering munitions and tactical drones, and utilized the Nearly Orthogonal and Balanced (NOB) method to generate a total of 256 design points with 350 replications each. JMP Pro 16 software was utilized to analyze the operational effectiveness of the loitering munitions and tactical drones, and assess the key performance parameters of the loitering munitions and tactical drones. It was observed that the significant factors in order of significance were loitering munition’s force structure, loitering munition’s classification range and tactical drone’s endurance, and indicated that the employment of loitering munitions and tactical drones enhanced the operational effectiveness of the armored company. This analysis would aid capability analysts in considering the procurement and deployment of sense and strike capabilities, with respect to potential inter-system interaction and key performance parameters., Outstanding Thesis, Major, Singapore Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Student Thesis (NPS NRP Project Related), United States Navy (USN) surface ships must complete routine maintenance, repair work or upgrades in order to maintain operations to support the fleet. However, a large majority of planned maintenance availabilities exceed their schedule and consequently decrease their readiness to support the fleet and negatively impact ship readiness and operational availability. The USN uses an Availability Duration Scorecard (ADS) to manually determine surface ship maintenance durations, but it does not accurately capture the complexity of the work required. There is a need for more accurate predictions using ADS that include a detailed evaluation of work performed, to include the complexity of specific tasks. This thesis conducts an analysis of the tanks and voids maintenance activity duration estimates for three classes of USN ships. Regression analysis is conducted on ships where the availability duration substantially exceeded the ADS estimate. Regression shows no statistically significant relationship between the number of maintenance activities on tanks and voids and the total availability duration. Additionally, there is no statistically significant relationship between unplanned tanks and voids maintenance activities and the total availability duration., NPS Naval Research Program, This project was funded in part by the NPS Naval Research Program., Civilian, Department of the Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis investigates whether the information contained in a Vitech Genesys model can retain its informational accuracy after conversion into a Dassault Systemes’ Magic System of Systems Architect (MSOSA) model. The thesis uses a sample system model in Vitech that implements the system definition language (SDL) and converts it to MSOSA, which uses the systems modeling language (SysML). The study reviewed conversion methods available to the user and converted a Genesys model to an MSOSA model using the only available method, Excel. The study then assessed the converted model and outlined any post-migration remediation. The results of this thesis demonstrate that the currently available methods are feasible but inefficient, as only 34% of the entities and 9% of the relationships transferred successfully during the experiment. Genesys can output tabular data that represents system model entities and relationships; however, the MSOSA import function was unable to correctly import entities that had one-to-many relationships with other entities. Consequently, the user must perform manual manipulation during the conversion process. Furthermore, ontological differences between the tools prevented the complete import of behavioral data, since many SDL entities map to more than one SysML entity. Based on the results, this thesis recommends pursuing an extensible markup language–based software solution for Genesys and MSOSA and developing a formal Navy and Marine Corps ontology., Civilian, Department of the Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, Navy and Marine Corps planners developed the Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) concept of operations to provide maritime commanders with more options for future sea control operations. Additionally, Littoral Operations in a Contested Environment (LOCE) is the concept for logistical support to multiple EABO sites. Finally, NAVPLAN 2020 and the Tri-Service Maritime Strategy detail the importance of unmanned systems capabilities to future warfighting. Many unmanned undersea and aerial systems currently in development are looking to alternative energy sources, including hydrogen, to maximize operational reach and persistence. The picture is clear, the future combat environment demands risk-worthy platforms to perform sea denial as a low-signature "inside force' that is untethered from a large petroleum supply chain. This study will assess hydrogen requirements for use as a fuel in an EABO environment to inform development of a capability evolution plan. This work will apply a holistic, systems engineering approach to develop a finite set of scenarios for hydrogen use as a fuel in an EABO environment. One scenario will be modelled to determine short, mid, and long-term requirements for: hydrogen generation and storage, fuel-cell numbers and capabilities, facilities, and safety or other '-ilities' of relevance. The goal is to investigate benefits and system of systems trade-offs with the objective of delaying fuel resupply to the greatest extent possible. This will inform identification of DOTMLPF gaps to hydrogen adoption as an enabler of EABO in LOCE and support development of a capability evolution plan. This work directly supports technology assessment & transition in support of ONR S&T objectives, as well as the analysis & assessment needs of OPNAV N-94, MCWL, and NECC. An interdisciplinary team of students and faculty from Systems Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Operations Research will contribute. Systems Engineering will lead the study., N9 - Warfare Systems, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, The employment of long range fires is a high priority for the U.S. Navy. Long range fires address the capability of U.S. forces to coordinate an emerging arsenal of deep strike weapons against enemy targets that can be launched from an array of joint assets, to include submarines and surface ships, land platforms, and airplanes. This concept means launching ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hypersonic missiles from multiple, extremely dispersed locations, against critical enemy assets at sea or hardened facilities on land. Additionally, the long range fires process must be resilient in a degraded or denied environment. Coordinating long range fires encompasses a complex set of actions, to include target prioritization and development, command and control, tasking, kinetic and non-kinetic fires, battle damage assessment, rearming and contested logistics. Our approach leverages experience gained by applying systems engineering and analysis to recent research involving the operational Navy, to include projects involving joint fires within Distributed Maritime Operations and the deployment of hypersonic missiles on a current U.S. Navy surface ship. We apply a similar approach here but augment it with a system of systems analysis of applying long range fires in a degraded and denied environment as part of a timely and relevant joint operational scenario. We will examine significant design decisions and operational parameters, as well as appropriate measures of effectiveness, in generating successful long range fires through systems architecture development and simulation analysis., N2/N6 - Information Warfare, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This project conducts a lean systems engineering assessment of the foundations of CNO availabilities. Specifically, it develops process representations of the components of both Availability Duration Scorecards (ADSs) and Availability Duration Projections (ADPs) and conducts quantitative assessments of the major aspects of CNO availabilities that may result in inaccurate estimates of maintenance durations. This research explores the major drivers of availability durations, with specific focus on maintenance manning and maintenance workload. The analysis will identify the primary drivers of availability duration overruns, to include an assessment of items that may not be captured in existing ADSs and ADPs, and highlight opportunities to modify future availability duration projections to improve accuracy and thereby aid scheduling, budgeting, and workload decision making.

Army leaders are looking to procure and implement artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to solve a variety of problems and enhance existing capabilities across multiple portfolios. While there are benefits to implementing new technologies, including AI, there is often a major pitfall: the human factor as a user is consistently underrepresented. This disparity between how AI-enabled systems are being acquired and how they should be acquired is often related to a gap in the development of systems not aligning with Human Systems Integration (HSI) best practices. The design of systems that facilitate human-agent learning requires further guidance. We use data from the System for Award Management (SAM) along with discussions from subject-matter experts both in government and industry to capture how AI-enabled systems are currently being procured by the Army. The combined results of the team's methodology revealed that there are varying understandings across the Army of what an AI requirement is, and there are no obvious processes or specific AI acquisition guidelines that are universally followed when developing an AI requirement. It was also apparent that HSI was not always included in requirements as required by Army regulations. This disparity appeared to have three major root causes: immaturity of DOD Army guidance, shortcomings in AI-related training for acquisition personnel, and a negligence surrounding the incorporation of HSI elements into Army requirements., CRUSER, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This project develops a tool to better understand the impact of resource allocation on fleet readiness for the future guided-missile frigate, FFG(X). This project assesses the FFG(X) in terms of the PESTONI pillars (Personnel, Equipment, Supply, Training, Ordnance, Network, and Infrastructure). To use the PESTONI framework as a way to increase FFG(X) readiness, both a qualitative and a quantitative solution were developed. The qualitative solution is a series of failure propagation chain diagrams that represent how funding changes within one pillar affect the other pillars. The quantitative solution is the readiness model itself. The readiness model decomposes each pillar in a way that is relatable to the way the FFG(X) will operate when fielded. Once each pillar was independently constructed and tested, the pillars were interconnected in the same way they are presented in the failure propagation chain diagrams. The designed operation of the readiness model is to load the model with pertinent FFG(X) data that is then used in conjunction with both current and future funding allocations to estimate FFG(X) readiness. The readiness model is verified using multiple use case scenarios that demonstrate funding shifts cannot simply be equal across the PESTONI pillars, but they must be optimized to maximize FFG(X) readiness. The FFG(X) readiness model aims to present the user with objective information that will aid in producing the highest possible ship readiness.

The United States Navy has kept only a few varieties of maritime mines in its inventory for the last several decades and has let its mining tactical doctrine stagnate in order to prioritize its mine countermeasure capabilities. This thesis looks at mine warfare (MIW) through a modern lens using modeling and simulation (M&S) to capture a broader set of factors around the mining operational environment beyond mine performance characteristics and employment parameters to also include probabilistic enemy responses measured against updated mission success criteria. This thesis explores three generic and unclassified experiment scenarios to draw broad conclusions about the factors that most affect mining success and lays the groundwork for future exercises to explore specific mining use cases to inform the next generation of mines and their employment. Analysis indicates that air delivery strategies generally outperform surface, submarine, or UUV delivery with regard to affecting enemy behavioral outcomes. Note that the UUV delivery is associated with a lower overall quantity of mines, the impact of which can be mitigated through UUV movement speed and individual mine probability of detection and engagement.

This project explored how a common hypervelocity projectile (HVP) munition could support Anti-Air Warfare (AAW), Anti-Surface Warfare (ASUW), and Naval Surface Fire Support (NSFS) missions by comparing the legacy munitions to the HVP fired from U.S. legacy weapon systems. This study examined the effects of HVPs in mission planning, logistics and use in multiple mission areas. The main objective question for the study was, “Will the use of HVP in legacy weapon systems provide equivalent offensive and defensive capability and improve logistic operations in mission planning?” Using model-based systems engineering and architecting, the project formalized the criteria needed to perform a quantitative systems analysis for the operational, or mission, flexibility inherent in the HVP system. An in-depth model was created that analyzes the performance of multiple variables in the scenario for both the inclusion and exclusion of the HVP munition, which provides information of the overall effectiveness. The results provide evidence of the benefit of incorporating the HVPs into the weapon systems load out. There are benefits in cost, resupply, and munitions available, while maintaining performance. Based upon the results of this modeling, the initial hypothesis was confirmed that the effectiveness of HVP munitions improve the overall mission success, as well as deliver a cost effective alternative to using only legacy weapon systems., Naval Research Program, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This project informs the concept of operations and system design decisions related to the usage of unmanned systems in support of Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO). The research supports capability-level analysis of an Unmanned Vehicle Carrier (UVC) through systematic variation of system design characteristics and operational activities in a simulation model. The analysis shows that the UVC improves operational availability (Ao) and time-on-station (TOS) for a variety of unmanned systems by providing ready access to maintenance, refueling, and rearming facilities without the need for long transit times to shore-based facilities or distributed support vessels. Improvement in Ao for individual unmanned systems ranged from 6% to 31% when comparing configurations utilizing a UVC vs. configurations that distribute unmanned systems support across the adaptive force package (AFP). The simulation model analysis identified a UVC architecture consisting of at least eight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) launch recovery stations, at least three ship side-bays, and at least five well deck bays to maximize Ao., Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Department of Defense (DOD) is unequivocally the largest consumer of energy of all the branches in the federal government. The DOD's reliance on petroleum-based fuels increases the susceptibility of our forces stationed at forward-operating bases due to the continuous supply of these products that are required to remain operational. The implementation of renewable power sources that can be incorporated into a microgrid power system is a clear alternative to decrease our nearly sole-source reliance on fossil fuels. Small-scale liquid air energy storage systems (LAESS) are a promising novel technology that can aid in accomplishing this mission. This thesis presents a systems engineering approach with numerous systems engineering tools to aid in the selection of a heat exchanger for an existing small-scale Linde-Hampson cycle LAESS at the Naval Postgraduate School. Two alternative heat exchangers designs are analyzed and a trade-off study is conducted to determine the best alternative using systems engineering tools. The results of this analysis lead to the selection of a commercially manufactured printed circuit heat exchanger (PCHE). Once acquired, the PCHE will allow for a fully functional prototype small-scale LAESS and the potential for future analysis of LAESS viability in the force., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Hypersonic glide body weapons represent a revolutionary change in offensive capabilities for militaries around the world. The U.S. Navy is developing a hypersonic glide body capability with the Conventional Prompt Strike Program, which has a scheduled initial operational capability of 2025. This capstone project has developed candidate systems that describe how the Army's Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) system could be integrated onto various vessels to deliver a hypersonic glide body capability to the Navy before the Conventional Prompt Strike Program is operational. Research indicates that the LRHW is the most mature hypersonic glide body system developed by the United States, and integrating its use aboard Navy ships is the most likely path to success. This capstone describes the user concerns, system requirements, and concepts of operation through the development of systems engineering products that describe each of the candidate systems.

This project conducted operational effectiveness analysis to inform future operational concepts for mining. It defined candidate operational concepts for mining operations with a focus on capabilities and associated design requirements. It developed architectural representations of mining operations to highlight the operational activities and systems associated with mining operations and define the system design decisions (e.g., platforms, manning) that contribute to the operational effectiveness of minefield deployment. The project developed and analyzed an agent-based simulation model using the Modeling and Simulation Toolbox (MAST) feature of the Orchestrated Simulation through Modeling (OSM) framework developed by the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division. The OSM MAST model was used to compare airborne, surface, and subsurface deployment strategies as well as the key performance drivers (in terms of operational activities, hostile behavior, and system design decisions) that drive operational effectiveness. Analysis demonstrated that hostile posture (defined in terms of enemy detection capability and probability to change course upon mine detection) had a larger impact on minefield effectiveness than any characteristics of the minefield, individual mine characteristics, or deployment vessel. Additional analysis was conducted on operational and design characteristics of deployed minefields which found that the quantity of the mines in the minefield had a larger impact than individual mine characteristics or deployment vessel. An isolated analysis of alternative deployment strategies found that, in general, airborne deployment vessels outperformed both surface and subsurface deployment strategies.

This Broad Area Study will explore emerging concepts of maritime operations (Phase 0 to Phase V) in the context of Great Power Competition. The specific focus will be on the potential role NSW could play in contested environments within the construct of the US DoN Littoral Operations in a Contested Environment (LOCE), Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO), Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO), Joint Force 2030, and USSOCOM's Operating Concept 2030. Specific consideration will be given to the integration of NSW into Joint Maritime Operations and the USN Composite Warfare Doctrine, and the manner in which NSW could posture their force (man/train/equip and employ when called upon) to provide access and advantage in a contested environment, particularly looking at Phase 0 from a clandestine/non-standard ISR, maneuver, and logistics perspective. Related topics of discussion may include, but are not limited to, DMO, Joint Fires, Command and Control, C5ISR networks, expeditionary logistics/sustainment, Robotic Autonomous Systems (RAS) capabilities, implications of urban centers within the littorals, IO/Cyber, IW operations, Force Protection, OPSEC, INFOSEC, Deception Operations, AI for Small Unit Maneuver (AIUSM). Multi-disciplinary exploratory research will be conducted over the 12 month period, and would take the form of a collaborative Capstone project, with students and faculty from Systems Engineering, Operations Research, and Defense Analysis Depts. In addition to a Literature Review of existing research (including related previous work done in all three academic Departments) and ongoing dialogue with the sponsor, the project will include scenario-based wargaming and campaign analysis, discrete event modeling of various warfighting concepts, and system dynamics modeling with a user interface as a decision support tool. Deliverables: Final capstone report with modeling and simulation, findings, and recommendations. An Executive Summary and Research Poster.

This project assesses the operational and design considerations for utilization of an unmanned carrier concept in support of Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO). That assessment will inform investment and development of operational concepts related to the utilization of unmanned systems and their integration with the manned fleet. This project develops architectural representations of DMO, to include definition of associated systems as well as related operational activities. Those representations serve as the baseline for simulation model development that examines the impact that the unmanned carrier system may have on lethality, risk reduction, operational availability, and sustainment. Analysis of that model will identify the characteristics of the unmanned carrier system and associated unmanned systems that have the largest impact on operational effectiveness and identify potential conflicts between operational activities and system design decisions.

The development and deployment of hypersonic missiles is a major priority for the U.S. Armed Forces. While the Navy is conducting ongoing testing of its version of the hypersonic missile, there is a need to examine alternative launch methods for these missiles from existing surface ships in the near future. The ability to successfully deploy and launch hypersonic anti-ship missiles, as well as potentially anti-surface missiles in support of land forces, could provide significant advantage to joint forces, particularly in the Pacific region. Multiple navy surface ship platforms will be considered, as will the mix of operational missions being conducted, and the potential variety of ships that make up the operational task force. From these platforms, we will examine the development of alternate launching systems, as hypersonic missiles may not be compatible with existing launching systems like the MK-41 and MK-57 vertical launch systems (VLS). Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPF), and amphibious ships have weight and space to dedicate to hypersonic missiles, but no system to launch them. Among other potential launching systems, we will consider the feasibility of crane-launching hypersonic missiles, as the missile exhausts over the water and not the ship and is easily adapted to accommodate missiles not compatible with existing launchers. Our study will analyze suitability of existing cranes on these ship classes, as well as associated magazines and handling gear. If missile size exceeds EPF and LCS crane capability, study should recommend required crane specifications.

Due to the nature of amphibious operations, the Navy’s landing platform dock (LPD) amphibious ship is required to remain within close distance of the shore, which poses a threat to the ship and its supported elements such as a Marine Expeditionary Unit. To resolve this issue, this thesis investigates outfitting the LPD-17 with an electromagnetic railgun (EMRG), which is a high-velocity weapon that can fire projectiles at targets at ranges of up to 100 nautical miles by utilizing electromagnetic propulsion rather than traditional propellants. This EMRG concept in the amphibious fleet provides offensive capability in the form of Naval Surface Fire Support (NSFS) and a defensive capability against surface threats, missiles, and other airborne threats. Because the railgun can provide both offensive and defensive capabilities, there is a potential increase in operational effectiveness of amphibious ships conducting air defense and NSFS. This thesis contains a cost estimate of the railgun integration and a cost effectiveness analysis, from both operational and system perspectives, that quantifies the impact of integrating the railgun onto an amphibious platform. The cost estimate for the EMRG is FY20 $134.66M, given a 32 MJ railgun. From an operational effectiveness perspective, hit probability of air targets has a greater impact on performance than cycle time, and when balancing cost versus effectiveness, a 10 MJ railgun is preferred to a 32 MJ railgun., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis investigates the employment of Hyper Velocity Projectiles (HVPs) as interceptors for the Army's Air and Missile Defense (AMD) enterprise in the 2030'2035 timeline. The research recommends a proposed systems architecture for the incorporation of an HVP Gun System (HVPGS) to an AMD enterprise operating in a contested environment, with emphasis on the operating characteristics of the HVPs and their integration onto the firing platform. The study then develops a realistic operational scenario and models it using the ExtendSim modeling tool. Through the systems engineering process, the study traced the Army's AMD requirements and functions throughout the Requirement and Functional Analysis efforts up to the generation of an alternative concept of operation for the AMD enterprise. The analysis method enables the conduct of a quantitative comparison of HVP characteristics that influence the operational success of the AMD enterprise against an enemy in a missile defense engagement. The objective of this thesis is to design an alternative system architecture and concept of operation for the Army's AMD enterprise to employ HVPGS to better defend key U.S. and allied bases in the Western Pacific. Such a system would capitalize on the versatile and cost-effective HVP interceptors to address a potential salvo attack's ability to overwhelm existing missile defenses as well as improve overall cost exchanges for enhanced operational sustainability in the longer term.

This thesis uses discrete event simulation and statistical methods to further analyze the U.S. Marine Corps Expeditionary Energy Office’s IPOWER tool, which is currently focused on analysis of squad-level operations and scales the simulation to the platoon level. The results of this work show that there is significant variability when analyzing the mission parameters that have the largest impact on energy usage. The model developed by this thesis incorporates variability into the operator’s decision, allowing the operator to see a distribution of possible outcomes, which represents the stochastic nature of military operations in more detail than is possible using IPOWER. This allows the operator to assume a level of risk, how much of the distribution to include, in determining the number of batteries required to complete the mission. It was determined that radio usage during the attack/intel phase and the radio’s initial battery capacity are the most significant factors in all prediction models. The results of this thesis can help to improve the Marine Corps’ management of the War Reserve Materiel Program, logistics planning for operations that require high energy demands, and wargame analysis.

This thesis investigates the employment of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) within the Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) construct in the 2030–2035 timeframe. This research created a proposed systems architecture for the incorporation of USVs into an adaptive force package (AFP) operating in a DMO environment, with emphasis on the command and control (C2) structure and composition of the AFP force. The study then developed a realistic operational scenario and incorporated the scenario into a model using the agent-based program called Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). Using the systems engineering process, the study traced AFP requirements and functions throughout the functional analysis and modeling efforts. The analysis method enabled the author to conduct a quantitative comparison of AFP characteristics that influenced the operational success of the AFP against an enemy in a maritime engagement. The research identified that the type of C2 structure imposed on an AFP operating with USVs did not significantly impact the operational performance of the AFP. Additionally, an AFP composed of large surface combatants (LSCs), small surface combatants (SSCs), large USVs (LUSVs), and medium USVs (MUSVs) has the greatest operational success over an enemy when the distributed force consists of a small number of LSCs, a greater number of SSCs, and many USVs. The author’s recommendation for the U.S. Navy is to continue to develop and employ USV technology to enable DMO objectives, http://archive.org/details/analysisofunmann1094564162, Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Includes supplementary material, Offensive mine warfare (OMW) is an often overlooked and underdeveloped potential benefit to the breadth of options available for current naval forces regarding enemy deterrence. By taking a modified systems engineering Vee approach and applying it to offensive mine warfare, this project provides a definition of existing operational concepts and projects the future potential of this methodology. This project defines two simulations utilizing OMW in both an open-ocean transit mission and an ocean strait escort mission. These mission scenarios help provide the composition of the interconnected system of systems involved with the deployment, loiter, engagement, and recovery functions of offensive mines. An emphasis is placed on the use of Advanced Undersea Weapons Systems to carry out these functions, specifically large-displacement unmanned underwater vehicles. Simulations provided within this project better map the interconnection of the deployment, loiter, engagement, and recovery functions as they pertain to the measures of effectiveness for each mission scenario. By decomposing the major functions of OMW, this project provides the initial framework for the inclusion of offensive mining into the current naval forces’ repertoire of enemy-deterrence options. Additionally, this project’s decomposition of offensive mining in its current iteration provides the framework for a further investigation into the future capabilities of this product., Civilian, Department of the Navy, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The system of interest (SOI) for this research centers on the mission of a friendly Blue Force (BF) controlling the enemy Red Force's (RF) influence on a strategic, bottleneck trade route and the execution of the kill chain functions performed by the BF during the conflict that ensues. The kill chain function of 'finding the RF threat' is conducted by the BF's Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance (ISR), the function of 'targeting the RF threat' is performed by the BF's decision maker, and the function of 'engaging the RF threat' is conducted by the BF's shooter. There are multiple messages exchanged between the BF's ISR, decision maker, and shooter during execution of the kill chain functions and a recognized need to improve the command and control (C2) responsiveness while performing cooperative engagements to ensure overmatch of a near peer enemy by 2030, when naval unmanned surface vessels are predicted to join the fleet.

Army Futures Command (AFC) manages technology development projects in response to identified threats. These projects support future Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) capabilities, which are diverse in duration, cost, and technical requirements. The potential outcomes range from software upgrades to revolutionary concepts in vehicle or weapons technology. AFC must evaluate each program annually to determine priority and funding levels for recommendation in the Program Objective Memorandum (POM). AFC does not currently have a methodology in place that is capable of scoring projects based on their potential future impacts. This project develops a methodology and common metrics to score diverse technology development projects, and the methodology will provide a decision tool to support AFC POM submission. Due to the complexity of the decision-making model, as well as limits in time and available information, this project develops the methodology up to the point of demonstrating its function with simulated data. Taking these factors into consideration, this project does not perform validation and testing.

This project focuses on the definition and analysis of a concept of operations for hypervelocity projectile (HVP) employment in support of layered defense within an adaptive force package (AFP). The project defines, via development of a systems architecture and mission engineering, the weapon characteristics relevant to HVP utilization. The project presents an initial set of system requirements as well as a definition of the system functionality and potential physical configurations. The project develops a detailed analysis model that analyzes the performance parameters that have the largest impact on the overall effectiveness of the proposed HVP systems. In particular, the project examines the impact of alterations to range-dependent kill criteria and engagement envelopes on the effectiveness of the overall system in complex threat scenarios. That analysis is then fed back into the system architecture to develop recommended system configurations and inform system requirements.

The purpose of this project is to evaluate alternative contracting practices and approaches the Army Applications Laboratory (AAL) can use to meet the technology development requirements of the Army Futures Command. The Department of Defense operates at a pace that is well behind the commercial high-technology sector, which includes small start-up and nontraditional companies. The U.S. Army has a longstanding reputation for capability overmatch against any potential adversary and therefore must simultaneously preserve and enhance this advantage by continuously developing and adopting the latest technologies for military use at the speed of business-to-business transactions. This project evaluated the efficacy of various contracting practices within the governance of the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), and those instruments outside the FAR to make recommendations for AAL to meet its acquisition requirements. The capstone team conducted a thorough review of possible contracting solutions. Leveraging the proven concepts of the Vee Model, the team completed a requirements analysis, developed an evaluation criteria, and generated a contracting decision matrix to determine the best options available. After a thorough analysis, the team made recommendations for methods that could meet AAL's requirements.

This thesis explores the periodicity of planned depot maintenance and its effects on failure rates for U.S. Coast Guard shipboard davit systems. Davits are used on Coast Guard cutters to launch small boats, which are needed to accomplish a range of missions. The operational availability of these davit systems is important in keeping Coast Guard cutters fully mission capable. This study collected davit failure and maintenance data from nearly eight years of archived records for two cutter classes, which served as a sample of Welin Lambie davit systems that are widely used in the fleet. Concepts of reliability, availability, and maintainability were applied to calculate failure rates, mean time between maintenance, and mean time between failures. From this information, statistical hypothesis testing was used to determine what factors influence the system failure rate. It also addresses whether the historical data on these systems can be used to develop experimental models and whether those models can be used to influence decisions on maintenance periodicity., Lieutenant Commander, United States Coast Guard, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Due to the nature of amphibious operations, the Navy’s landing platform dock (LPD) amphibious ship is required to remain within close distance of the shore, which poses a threat to the ship and its supported elements such as a Marine Expeditionary Unit. To resolve this issue, this thesis investigates outfitting the LPD-17 with an electromagnetic railgun (EMRG), which is a high-velocity weapon that can fire projectiles at targets at ranges of up to 100 nautical miles by utilizing electromagnetic propulsion rather than traditional propellants. This EMRG concept in the amphibious fleet provides offensive capability in the form of Naval Surface Fire Support (NSFS) and a defensive capability against surface threats, missiles, and other airborne threats. Because the railgun can provide both offensive and defensive capabilities, there is a potential increase in operational effectiveness of amphibious ships conducting air defense and NSFS. This thesis contains a cost estimate of the railgun integration and a cost effectiveness analysis, from both operational and system perspectives, that quantifies the impact of integrating the railgun onto an amphibious platform. The cost estimate for the EMRG is FY20 $134.66M, given a 32 MJ railgun. From an operational effectiveness perspective, hit probability of air targets has a greater impact on performance than cycle time, and when balancing cost versus effectiveness, a 10 MJ railgun is preferred to a 32 MJ railgun.

An electromagnetic railgun (EMRG) is a developmental weapon that utilizes electromagnetic propulsion to launch kinetic projectile attacks against air, sea, and land targets. This new propulsion technology differs from the current arsenal of naval weapons that utilize chemical missile propulsion and are limited in magazine depth. This study explores the feasibility of using an EMRG in an amphibious assault mission to retake control of a captured island's military base. A naval scenario was simulated in a force-on-force skirmish with various amphibious task force options that included the EMRG weapon in unique configurations. The addition of this weapon showed a significant increase in operational performance over established force compositions based on determined measures of effectiveness and performance. Regression analysis of the results provided high repeatability and reliability factors that verified the operational benefits of the EMRG. Magazine depth, cycle time between rounds, and hit probability proved to be the most important characteristics of the EMRG weapon when conducting an amphibious assault mission. Further technology maturation and naval ship integration are recommended to deploy the EMRG weapon as a capability improvement for future naval missions.

This thesis conducted an operational analysis to inform the designs of future mine countermeasures (MCM) ships. This was primarily focused on identifying the ship design characteristics that will have the largest impact on mine detection and classification. The research developed a systems architecture, operational model, and related analysis to interpret results, draw conclusions, and make recommendations. An agent-based model was developed to simulate four different MCM scenarios in which an MCM surface vessel searched a designated area that contained 32 potential mines. For each of the four scenarios, ship design characteristics were varied to determine which variables had the greatest impact on performance. To determine how well each design performed, the data was analyzed against two different measures of effectiveness (MOE): the average number of mines accurately detected and classified (MOE #1), and the average number of timesteps required to achieve mission success (MOE #2). The study found that improving the ship speed and reducing the detection delay has a large impact on performance in the scenarios where there is no unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) present. It also found that limiting the deployment range of the UUV is of paramount importance in the scenarios where there is a UUV present.

This thesis investigates the employment of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) within the Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) construct in the 2030–2035 timeframe. This research created a proposed systems architecture for the incorporation of USVs into an adaptive force package (AFP) operating in a DMO environment, with emphasis on the command and control (C2) structure and composition of the AFP force. The study then developed a realistic operational scenario and incorporated the scenario into a model using the agent-based program called Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). Using the systems engineering process, the study traced AFP requirements and functions throughout the functional analysis and modeling efforts. The analysis method enabled the author to conduct a quantitative comparison of AFP characteristics that influenced the operational success of the AFP against an enemy in a maritime engagement. The research identified that the type of C2 structure imposed on an AFP operating with USVs did not significantly impact the operational performance of the AFP. Additionally, an AFP composed of large surface combatants (LSCs), small surface combatants (SSCs), large USVs (LUSVs), and medium USVs (MUSVs) has the greatest operational success over an enemy when the distributed force consists of a small number of LSCs, a greater number of SSCs, and many USVs. The author’s recommendation for the U.S. Navy is to continue to develop and employ USV technology to enable DMO objectives

This thesis investigates the integration of unmanned surface vehicles into the order of battle for Distributed Maritime Operations. The purpose is to design a cost effective and operationally effective unmanned system of systems capable of contributing the DMO concept in the 2030–2035 timeframe. This thesis determines the mission set and combination of USVs that is both operationally impactful and cost effective in the conventional carrier strike group, expeditionary strike group and/or surface action group, and whether unmanned systems could potentially replace or supplement a number of current manned systems mission sets. The primary finding is that USVs can significantly supplement manned assets in the following two mission areas: (1) Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance mission set, and (2) the anti-missile defense mission set. The secondary finding is an initial $500 million investment into building approximately 10 USV platforms, with the aforementioned mission sets, is paramount to meet the measures of effectiveness described in this thesis. The author’s recommendation for the U.S. Navy is to implement a standardized USV design, focusing on an AMD and ISR mission package. Secondly, the investment of approximately $500 million to build 10 of these platforms and integrate them into one of the current CSGs, ESGs, or SAGs, would be the stepping stone for transition to implementing USVs into the future fleet., http://archive.org/details/implementationof1094561301, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

A set-based design (SBD) approach is proposed as an alternative to traditional point-based design (PBD) methodologies. SBD is compared to other common engineering, decision-making, and optimization methods to illustrate how conventional methods do not ordinarily embrace set-based thinking (SBT) or SBD methodologies. The predominant features of Toyota's approach are summarized, leading to seven characteristics and two principles required to identify a design approach as set-based. Several Latin hypercube (LHC) sampling strategies and the distinguishing characteristics of each are described for use in creating and refining sets. Methods of set reduction and elimination are introduced, and topics related to engineering reasoning in set reduction, expectations, SBT, when to use SBD, benefits, challenges, and metrics are discussed. Improved SBD process steps are proposed and demonstrated in an unmanned air system (UAS) example. A specific type of LHC is chosen to generate points in the design space, which are then used as inputs into a simulation tool. Approaching the UAS example problem in a set-based way results in more viable options with higher system-level performance for comparable cost than if a PBD approach were used., http://archive.org/details/asetbasedapproac1094562256, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

As the U.S. Navy continues the development of the Medium Displacement Unmanned Surface Vehicle (MDUSV), a doctrinal shift of the surface fleet necessitates examining potential manned-unmanned teaming mission sets within the construct of Distributed Maritime Operations. Utilizing systems engineering for architectural development, discrete-event simulation, and analysis, this capstone report evaluates MDUSV performance of an intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting mission in support of a 2–3 ship Adaptive Force Package’s over-the-horizon surface strike. The results indicate that there is a large benefit associated with utilizing passive sensors on MDUSVs in lieu of an active radar and that the magnitude of this benefit increases when lofting the passive sensors on towed airborne arrays. Extensions to MDUSV communications and operating ranges, in some configurations, led to detections of the enemy further from friendly manned vessels, but decreased the survivability and lethality of the main body when these ranges eclipsed the lowest ranged surface-strike weapons in the inventory. Additionally, while overall effectiveness increased with an offensive jammer on MDUSV, defensive countermeasures provided no discernible improvement to the Adaptive Force Package’s performance., N96, http://archive.org/details/mediumdisplaceme1094563459, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Civilian, Department of the Army, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Traditional fleet operations and technologies are not adequately suited to counter the growing threat to undersea infrastructure from autonomous undersea systems. A cost-effective unmanned and manned system of systems is required to provide defense of this seabed infrastructure. This paper proposes possible system architectures to defend against this emerging threat to include passive barriers and active defense systems. The effectiveness of those candidate systems is evaluated through multiple agent-based modeling simulations of UUV versus UUV engagements. Analysis resulted in two major findings. First, point defense of critical assets is more effective than barrier defense. Second, system design must focus on minimizing the time required to effectively engage and neutralize threats, either through improvement to defensive UUV speed or investment in more UUV docking stations and sensor arrays. Cost analysis suggests that acquisition and operations cost of the recommended defensive system is less than the projected financial impact of a successful attack.

This capstone explored options for two different communications architectures in support of a distributed maritime operation (DMO). Those architectures were the star and wireless mesh networks. The purpose of the scenario models developed for this study was to help give the reader a better understanding of how the tightly coupled data type, data rate, and desired network capabilities impact the network design. This study evaluated each architecture against a variety of assets in the scenarios requiring a combination of video, voice, and data links. It provided insight into the messaging delays inherent to each design and evaluated the reliability of each network. It found that a star and mesh network with a low Earth orbit satellite that utilized onboard routing capabilities provided the lowest timing delay. It also found that network jitter was minimized when a video feed was provided with a dedicated channel. Finally, the reliability of the mesh network was slightly higher than that of the traditional star due to redundancy of data links and a lack of a potentially vulnerable central hub. Therefore, the utilization of an ad hoc wireless mesh communications network will support the deployment of an adaptive force package during a limited offensive joint fires strike in a DMO.