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Background: The Chornobyl accident in 1986 exposed thousands of people to radioactive iodine isotopes, particularly (131)I; this exposure was followed by a large increase in thyroid cancer among those exposed as children and adolescents, particularly in Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Here we report the results of the first cohort study of thyroid cancer among those exposed as children and adolescents following the Chornobyl accident., Methods: A cohort of 32 385 individuals younger than 18 years of age and resident in the most heavily contaminated areas in Ukraine at the time of the accident was invited to be screened for any thyroid pathology by ultrasound and palpation between 1998 and 2000; 13 127 individuals (44%) were actually screened. Individual estimates of radiation dose to the thyroid were available for all screenees based on radioactivity measurements made shortly after the accident and on interview data. The excess relative risk per gray (Gy) was estimated using individual doses and a linear excess relative risk model., Results: Forty-five pathologically confirmed cases of thyroid cancer were found during the 1998-2000 screening. Thyroid cancer showed a strong, monotonic, and approximately linear relationship with individual thyroid dose estimate (P<.001), yielding an estimated excess relative risk of 5.25 per Gy (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.70 to 27.5). Greater age at exposure was associated with decreased risk of radiation-related thyroid cancer, although this interaction effect was not statistically significant., Conclusion: Exposure to radioactive iodine was strongly associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer among those exposed as children and adolescents. In the absence of Chornobyl radiation, 11.2 thyroid cancer cases would have been expected compared with the 45 observed, i.e., a reduction of 75% (95% CI = 50% to 93%). The study also provides quantitative risk estimates minimally confounded by any screening effects. Caution should be exercised in generalizing these results to any future similar accidents because of the potential differences in the nature of the radioactive iodines involved, the duration and temporal patterns of exposures, and the susceptibility of the exposed population.

The thyroid gland in children is one of the organs that is most sensitive to external exposure to X and gamma rays. However, data on the risk of thyroid cancer in children after exposure to radioactive iodines are sparse. The Chornobyl accident in Ukraine in 1986 led to the exposure of large populations to radioactive iodines, particularly (131)I. This paper describes an ongoing cohort study being conducted in Belarus and Ukraine that includes 25,161 subjects under the age of 18 years in 1986 who are being screened for thyroid diseases every 2 years. Individual thyroid doses are being estimated for all study subjects based on measurement of the radioactivity of the thyroid gland made in 1986 together with a radioecological model and interview data. Approximately 100 histologically confirmed thyroid cancers were detected as a consequence of the first round of screening. The data will enable fitting appropriate dose-response models, which are important in both radiation epidemiology and public health for prediction of risks from exposure to radioactive iodines from medical sources and any future nuclear accidents. Plans are to continue to follow-up the cohort for at least three screening cycles, which will lead to more precise estimates of risk.

In preparation for a possible large epidemiological study of radiation-related leukemia in Chernobyl clean-up workers of Ukraine, histologic evaluation of 62 cases of leukemia and related disorders was conducted by a panel of expert hematologists and hematopathologists from the United States, France, and Ukraine. All cases were randomly selected from a surrogate population of men in the general population of 6 regions of Ukraine who were between the ages of 20 and 60 years in 1986 and were reported to have developed leukemia, myelodysplasia, or multiple myeloma between the years 1987 and 1998. The hematologists and hematopathologists on the panel were in agreement with one another and with the previously reported diagnoses and classifications of about 90% of the cases of acute and chronic leukemia in the study. These results suggest that strong reliance can be placed on the clinical diagnoses of acute and chronic forms of leukemia and multiple myeloma that have occurred in Ukrainian Chernobyl clean-up workers providing that the diagnoses are supported by records of the patients having had adequate histologic bone marrow studies. The number of cases in this study with the diagnosis of myelodysplasia, however, was too small to draw firm conclusions.

This study reports on over 40 years of mortality follow-up of 40,581 Navy veterans of the Korean War with potential exposure to high-intensity radar. The cohort death rates were compared with mortality rates for White US men using standardized mortality ratios, and the death rates for men in occupations considered a priori to have high radar exposure were compared with the rates for men in low-exposure occupations using Poisson regression. Deaths from all diseases and all cancers were significantly below expectation overall and for the 20,021 sailors with high radar exposure potential. There was no evidence of increased brain cancer in the entire cohort (standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 0.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7, 1.1) or in high-exposure occupations (SMR = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.5, 1.0). Testicular cancer deaths also occurred less frequently than expected in the entire cohort and high-exposure occupations. Death rates for several smoking-related diseases were significantly lower in the high-exposure occupations. Nonlymphocytic leukemia was significantly elevated among men in high-exposure occupations but in only one of the three high-exposure occupations, namely, electronics technicians in aviation squadrons (SMR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.3, 3.7). Radar exposure had little effect on mortality in this cohort of US Navy veterans.

We describe the radiation risk for primary liver cancers between 1958 and 1987 in a cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. The analysis is based on a comprehensive pathology review of known or suspected liver neoplasms that generated 518 incident, first primary cases, mostly hepatocellular carcinoma. Excess relative risk from atomic bomb radiation was linear: 0.81 per sievert weighted liver dose (95% CI [0.32, 1.43]; P < 0.001). Males and females had similar relative risk so that, given a threefold higher background incidence in males, the radiation-related excess incidence was substantially higher in males. Excess risk peaked for those with age at exposure in the early 20s; there was essentially no excess risk in those exposed before age 10 or after age 45. Whether this was due to a difference in sensitivity or possible confounding by other factors could not be addressed retrospectively in the full cohort. A paucity of cholangiocarcinoma and hemangiosarcoma cases suggested that they are not significantly associated with whole-body radiation exposure, as they are with the internal alpha-particle-emitting radiological contrast medium Thorotrast. Because most of the radiation-related excess cases occurred among males, it is important to ascertain what factors put men at greater risk of radiation-related liver cancer.

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on April 26, 1986, released approximately 2 EBq of 131I and other radioiodine isotopes that heavily contaminated southern Belarus. An increase in thyroid cancer reported in 1992 and attributed to the Chernobyl accident was challenged as possibly the result of intensive screening. We began a case-control study to test the hypothesis that the Chernobyl accident caused the increase in thyroid cancer. Records of childhood thyroid cancer in the national therapy centers in Minsk in 1992 yielded 107 individuals with confirmed pathology diagnoses and available for interview. Pathways to diagnosis were (1) routine endocrinological screening in 63, (2) presentation with enlarged or nodular thyroid in 25 and (3) an incidental finding in 19. Two sets of controls were chosen, one matched on pathway to diagnosis, the other representing the area of heavy fallout, both matched on age, sex and rural/urban residence in 1986. The 131I dose to the thyroid was estimated from ground deposition of 137Cs, ground deposition of 131I, a data bank of 1986 thyroid radiation measurements, questionnaires and interviews. Highly significant differences were observed between cases and controls (both sets) with respect to dose. The differences persisted within pathway to diagnosis, gender, age and year of diagnosis, and level of iodine in the soil, and were most marked in the southern portion of the Gomel region. The case-control comparisons indicate a strong relationship between thyroid cancer and estimated radiation dose from the Chernobyl accident.

Objectives: To evaluate a case-control study of malignant mesothelioma through patterns of exposure to asbestos based upon information from telephone interviews with next of kin., Methods: Potential cases, identified from medical files and death certificates, included all people diagnosed with malignant mesothelioma and registered during 1975-1980 by the Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program, the New York State Cancer Registry (excluding New York City), and 39 large Veterans Administration hospitals. Cases whose diagnosis was confirmed in a special pathology review as definite or probable mesothelioma (n = 208) were included in the analysis. Controls (n = 533) had died of other causes, excluding cancer, respiratory disease, suicide, or violence. Direct exposure to asbestos was determined from responses to three types of questions: specific queries as to any exposure to asbestos; occupational or non-vocational participation in any of nine specific activities thought to entail exposure to asbestos; and analysis of life-time work histories. Indirect exposures were assessed through residential histories and reported contact with family members exposed to asbestos., Results: Among men with pleural mesothelioma the attributable risk (AR) for exposure to asbestos was 88% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 76-95%). For men, the AR of peritoneal cancer was 58% (95% CI 20-89%). For women (both sites combined), the AR was 23% (95% CI 3-72%). The large differences in AR by sex are compatible with the explanations: a lower background incidence rate in women, lower exposure to asbestos, and greater misclassification among women., Conclusions: Most of the pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas in the men studied were attributable to exposure to asbestos. The situation in women was less definitive.

The hypothesis that adult infection with the hepatitis B virus in the United States leads to a carrier state with a high risk of primary liver cancer was tested in two ways: (a) a cohort mortality study of U.S. Army veterans given yellow fever vaccine contaminated with hepatitis B virus in 1942 and controls and (b) a case-control study comparing veterans with hepatocellular carcinoma in Veterans Affairs hospitals with matched controls with respect to receipt of contaminated vaccine in 1942. Three groups totaling 69,988 men were the subjects of the cohort study: group 1 comprised men hospitalized with hepatitis in 1942, group 2 comprised men subclinically infected in 1942 and group 3 comprised controls who entered service after the contaminated vaccine was discontinued. Hepatocellular carcinoma cases (n = 24) and control subjects (n = 63) derived from Veterans Affairs hospital discharge files were the subjects of the case-control study. Group comparisons of death rates from liver cancer were refined by expert review of records to select hepatocellular carcinoma from among all causes of death so diagnosed in the cohort study. Slightly excess mortality was found for hepatocellular carcinoma in group 2 (subclinical hepatitis B) but not for group 1 (overt hepatitis B) compared with group 3 (controls) (p = 0.08). Mortality from nonalcoholic chronic liver disease was less in group 2 than in group 3. In the case-control study, the relative risk for hepatocellular carcinoma conferred by receipt of contaminated vaccine was estimated as 3.3 (p = 0.06). We conclude from the cohort study that immunocompetent adult males rarely become carriers after hepatitis B virus infection, probably far less often than the frequently assumed rate of 5% to 10%. The small excess liver cancer mortality seen in the cohort study and the results of the case-control study are consistent, nevertheless, with the now well-established etiological role of hepatitis B virus infection in liver cancer.

Thyroid nodularity following continuous low-dose radiation exposure in China was determined in 1,001 women aged 50-65 years who resided in areas of high background radiation (330 mR/yr) their entire lives, and in 1,005 comparison subjects exposed to normal levels of radiation (114 mR/yr). Cumulative doses to the thyroid were estimated to be of the order of 14 cGy and 5 cGy, respectively. Personal interviews and physical examinations were conducted, and measurements were made of serum thyroid hormone levels, urinary iodine concentrations, and chromosome aberrations in circulating lymphocytes. For all nodular disease, the prevalences in the high background and control areas were 9.5% and 9.3%, respectively. For single nodules, the prevalences were 7.4% in the high background area and 6.6% in the control area (prevalence ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval = 0.82-1.55). There were no differences found in serum levels of thyroid hormones. Women in the high background region, however, had significantly lower concentrations of urinary iodine and significantly higher frequencies of stable and unstable chromosome aberrations. Increased intake of allium vegetables such as garlic and onions was associated with a decreased risk of nodular disease, which seems consistent with experimental studies suggesting that allium compounds can inhibit tumor growth and proliferation. The prevalence of mild diffuse goiter was higher in the high background radiation region, perhaps related to a low dietary intake of iodine. These data suggest that continuous exposure to low-level radiation throughout life is unlikely to appreciably increase the risk of thyroid cancer. However, such exposure may cause chromosomal damage.

Research on chronic disease arising from occupational exposure typically requires that events widely separated in time be linked through records created and maintained by more than one institution or agency. Too little attention is paid, in creating record forms, to the mechanics of record linkage and to the nature of the information needed for studies of the effect of the workplace on health. Record linkage also suffers from a highly decentralized federal statistical system and from changes in privacy legislation and in public attitudes toward personal privacy, changes motivated by invasions of privacy that have arisen from activities entirely unrelated to medical research. If medical research capabilities are to match the information needs of society a more adequate balance will have to be struck between those needs and personal privacy.

World War II or Korean Conflict veterans with MS (5,305 in number) and pre-illness-matched controls were compared for residence at birth and entry on active duty (EAD) within three north-south tiers of states in the United States. A strong north-south gradient of MS risk was present. Migrants were defined as those whose birth and EAD tier differed. For white men of World War II, all white men, and all whites, there were highly significant reductions in risk for moves southward from either the north or middle tier, and increases in risk for moves northward from the middle tier. Increases similar in magnitude of middle to north did not attain statistical significance in the few southern-born migrants. For the small groups of black men and white men of Korean service, trends were similar but did not attain significance, whereas for white women, they were of borderline significance. Findings imply an environmental cause for MS, with acquisition years before symptom-onset.

Mesothelioma incidence rates based on data from population-based cancer registries in New York State (exclusive of New York City), Los Angeles County, California, and the SEER Program of the National Cancer Institute were analyzed for trends, using original cancer registry diagnoses. Results indicate a significant increase in incidence during 1973-80 for pleural mesothelioma among white males older than 55 at time of diagnosis but not for other age-race-sex-site subgroups. A histopathologic review of New York State and Los Angeles County cases by two independent pathologists, expert in the diagnosis of mesothelioma, lowered the overall estimates but a significant upward trend remained. The observed trend does not appear to be related to changes in diagnostic practice. The results of a five-member panel of expert pathologists will be published in a separate methodology paper.

US Army veterans taken prisoner (POW's) in World War II and in the Korean War are compared with controls as to hospital admissions from 1946 to 1965 (1954-1965 for Korean War POW's), and as to symptoms, disability, and maladjustments in 1966-1967. Sequelae of the POW experience are both somatic and psychiatric, and are of greatest extent and severity among Pacific World War II POW's. Among European World War II POW's only psychiatric sequelae are apparent. Somatic sequelae were most prevalent in the early years after liberation, but for Pacific World War II POW's they persist in the form of higher hospital admission rates for many specific causes in the most recent period. Nevertheless, persistent psychiatric sequelae (especially psychoneurosis but also schizophrenia) are the more notable and pervasive for both Pacific World War II POW's and Korean War POW's as seen not only in elevated hospital admission rates but also in VA disability awards and in symptoms reported on the cornell Medical Index Health Questionnaire. The excess morbidity appears to correlate well with retrospective accounts of weight-loss and nutritional deficiency diseases and symptoms during the POW period.

An epidemic of icteric hepatitis in 1942 affected approximately 50,000 U.S. Army personnel. This outbreak was linked to specific lots of yellow-fever vaccine stabilized with human serum. To identify the responsible virus and the consequences of the epidemic, during 1985 we interviewed and serologically screened 597 veterans who had been in the army in 1942. These subjects were selected from three groups. Group I consisted of patients who had received the implicated vaccine and had jaundice; Group II had received the implicated vaccine but remained well; Group III had received a new, serum-free vaccine, with no subsequent jaundice. Ninety-seven percent of Group I, 76 percent of Group II, and 13 percent of Group III were positive for antibodies to hepatitis B virus. Only one subject had hepatitis B surface antigen, for a carrier rate of 0.26 percent among recipients of the implicated vaccine. The prevalence of hepatitis A antibody was similar in all three groups, and no subject had antibody to hepatitis delta virus. We conclude that hepatitis B caused the outbreak, that about 330,000 persons may have been infected, that the hepatitis B virus carrier state was a rare consequence, and that the outbreak induced hepatitis B antibodies that appear to persist for life.

Poorly designed trials of therapy for multiple sclerosis (MS) can waste time and money, and may lead either to false hopes or to the overlooking of a potentially effective treatment. A well-designed trial may well develop useful scientific information even if the putative therapy fails to show any therapeutic effect. The diagnosis, clinical course, and definitions of the stages of MS are discussed as they relate to trials of therapy. The goals of such trials include favorable modification of an exacerbation, favorable modification or prevention of future exacerbations, effective treatment of the progressive stage, and improvement of function in the stable-deficit stage. There should be an orderly progression from a small preliminary trial to a modest pilot trial and, when indicated, a full trial. All types of trials require careful organization and management, appropriate selection of patients, and properly planned and recorded observations. The treatment contrast--how the new treatment will be evaluated--provides the essential structure of the trial. The hypothesis being examined, the treatment contrast, and the observations being made in the designed clinical trial will govern the form of the analysis and the nature of the interpretations. Each goal requires that specific strategies and design considerations be applied to preliminary, pilot, and full trials.

An analysis of ten climatic factors and elevation for the counties of birth of 4371 U.S. white male veterans with multiple sclerosis and matched controls has been made in relation to birthplace latitude. The climatic factors include an air pollution index, concentrations of minerals in ground water, measures of annual solar radiation, both in energy per unit area and in hours of sunshine, mean annual periods of high and low temperatures, and measures of annual rainfall and average humidity. These variables all significantly influence the risk of multiple sclerosis when analyzed alone, but when they are adjusted for latitude, their effect is found to be due to their correlation with this variable.

Five thousand three hundred five World War II and Korean conflict veterans who have been compensated by the Veterans Administration for multiple sclerosis (MS) were matched to controls on the basis of age, date of entry into military service, and branch of service. Case/control ratios for white males, white females, and black males were 1.04, 1.86, and 0.45, respectively. The coterminous 48 states, divided into three tiers on the basis of latitude, exhibited the well-known north-south gradient in risk: For all races and both sexes, case/control ratios were 1.41, 1.00, and 0.53 for the North, Middle, and South tiers. Both white females and black males showed this same north-to-south variation in risk. The case/control ratio for males of races other than black or white was 0.23, with possible deficits in risk for American Indians and Japanese-Americans. Filipinos and Hawaiian Japanese were significantly low-risk groups. These findings suggest that both a racial and a possibly genetic predisposition, as well as a geographically determined differential exposure to an environmental agent, are related to the risk of MS.

Epidemiologic studies of the late effects of ionizing radiation have used the entire spectrum of situations in which man has been exposed. These studies have provided insights into the dependence of human effects upon not only dose to target tissues but also other dimensions of exposure, host characteristics, and time following exposure. Over the past three decades studies have progressed from the mere identification of effects to their measurement. Because investigators of human effects have no control over the exposure situation, validity must be sought in the consistency of findings among independent studies and with accepted biologic principles. Because exposure may be confounded with factors that are hidden from view, bias may enter into any study of human exposure. Avoidance of bias and attainment of sufficient power to detect relationships that are real--these are the methodologic challenges. Many methodologic issues, e.g. those associated with the definition and measurement of specific end points, or with the selection of appropriate controls, permeate epidemiologic work in all fields. Others, especially those concerned with the measurement of exposure, the patterning of events in time after exposure, and the prediction of events beyond the scope of existing observations--these give radiation epidemiology its distinctive character.

Studies of cancer among the Japanese survivors of the A-bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima are the major source of information on radiation carcinogenesis in humans. They have already made important contributions to the estimation of the risk of radiation-induced cancer and to our understanding of key factors influencing risk, especially tissue sensitivity, age at exposure, and the temporal distribution of radiogenic cancers. The size of the exposed population still surviving virtually guarantees the continued productivity of the research conducted in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It should not be supposed, however, that these studies will ever provide all the information needed for radiation protection standards or risk estimation. The experience of the A-bomb survivors simply does not include all important aspects of radiation exposure for which information is needed. Moreover, despite the size of the sample remaining under study, it is most unlikely that direct, empirical estimates can be made that will remove the necessity for dependence upon mathematical models to derive estimates of risk in the low-dose region.