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This chapter assesses scientific evidence for tipping points across the biosphere, which comprises Earth’s ecosystems. Human-driven habitat loss, pollution, exploitation and, increasingly, climate change are degrading ecosystems across the planet, some of which can pass tipping points beyond which a ‘regime shift’ to an alternative (and often less diverse or beneficial) ecosystem state occurs.Evidence for tipping points emerges across many biomes. In forests,large parts of the Amazon rain forest could tip to degraded forest or impoverished savanna, while tipping in boreal forests is possible but more uncertain, and whether current temperate forest disturbance could lead to tipping is unclear. In open savannas and drylands,drying could lead to desertification in some areas, while in others encroachment by trees and shrubs could see these biodiverse ecosystems shift to a forested or degraded state. Nutrient pollution and warming can trigger lakes to switch to an algae-dominated low-oxygen state. Coral reefs are already experiencing tipping points, as more frequent warming-driven bleaching events, along with pollution,extreme weather events and diseases, tip them to degraded algae-dominated states. Mangroves and sea grasses are at risk of regional tipping, along with kelp forests, marine food webs and some fisheries,which are known to be able to collapse.Together, these tipping points threaten the livelihoods of millions of people, and some thresholds are likely imminent. Stabilising climate is critical for reducing the likelihood of widespread ecosystem tipping points, but tackling other pressures can also help increase ecological resilience, push back tipping and support human well being.

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s–1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5–1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000 km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat.

Planktonic Foraminifera are ubiquitous marine protozoa inhabiting the upper ocean. During life, they secrete calcareous shells, which accumulate in marine sediments, providing a geological record of past spatial and temporal changes in their community structure. As a result, they provide the opportunity to analyze both current and historical patterns of species distribution and community turnover in this plankton group on a global scale. The FORCIS project aims to unlock this potential by synthesizing a comprehensive global database of abundance and diversity observations of living planktonic Foraminifera in the upper ocean over more than 100 years starting from 1910. The database will allow for unravelling the impact of multiple global-change stressors acting on planktonic Foraminifera in historical times, using an approach that combines statistical analysis of temporal diversity changes in response to environmental changes with numerical modeling of species response based on their ecological traits.

The effect of environmental change in structuring the phytoplankton communities of the coastal waters of the Eastern English Channel was investigated by applying a trait-based approach on two decades (1996-2019) of monitoring on diatoms and Phaeocystis. We show that phytoplankton species richness in an unbalanced nutrient supply context was influenced by wind-driven processes, ecological specialization for dissolved inorganic phosphorous, temporal niche differentiation, and a competition-defense and/or a growth-defense trade-off, a coexistence mechanism where weak competitors (i.e., slower growing) are better protected against predation. Under the influence of both environmental perturbations (e.g., wind-driven processes, freshwater influence, unbalanced nutrient levels) and biotic interactions (e.g., competition, predation, facilitation), phytoplankton species exhibited specific survival strategies such as investment on growth, adaptation and tolerance of species to environmental stresses, silicification and resource specialization. These strategies have led to more speciose communities, higher productivity, functional redundancy and stability in the last decade. Our results revealed that the unbalanced nutrient reduction facilitated Phaeocystis blooms and that anthropogenic climate warming and nitrate reduction may threaten the diatom communities of the eastern English Channel in a near future. Our results provide strong support for biogeographical historical and niche-based processes in structuring the phytoplankton community in this temperate region. The variety of species responses that we characterized in this region may help to better understand future changes in pelagic ecosystems, and can serve as a basis to consider functional approaches for future ecosystem management.