Manuel Hidalgo, Angélique Jadaud, Vincent Rossi, Francisco Alemany, Enrico Ser-Giacomi, Beatriz Guijarro, Patricia Reglero, José Luis Pérez, Enric Massutí, Emilio Hernández-García, Pedro Monroy, Centre Oceanogràfic de les Balears [Palma, Spain] (COB), Instituto Espagňol de Oceanografia (IEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Centro Oceanografico de Malaga [Fuengirola, Spain] (COM), Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Málaga (Spain), Institut méditerranéen d'océanologie (MIO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Physics and Complex Systems [Mallorca] (IFISC), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universitat de les Illes Balears (UIB), Institut de biologie de l'ENS Paris (IBENS), Département de Biologie - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), UMR 212 EME 'écosystèmes marins exploités' (EME), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), This work was supported by two post-doctoral contracts from the Spanish program ‘Ramon y Cajal’ (RYC-2015-18646) and from the regional government of the Balearic Islands co-funded by the European Social Fund 2014-2020 to M.H., Juan de la Cierva Incorporacion fellowship (IJCI-2014-22343) and from MISTRALS ENVI-Med through the HYDROGENCONNECT project to V.R, French program 'Investissements d’Avenir' implemented by ANR (ANR-10-LABX-54 MEMOLIFE and ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02 PSL Research University) to E.S-G, and Spanish National projects LAOP (CTM2015-66407-P) to P.M. and E.H-G., and CLIFISH (CTM2015-66400-C3-1-R) to M.H., B.G. and E.M (AEI/FEDER, EU). PR and MH acknowledge funding of the H2020 PANDORA project (Nr. 773713)., ANR-10-IDEX-0001,PSL,Paris Sciences et Lettres(2010), ANR-11-IDEX-0001,Amidex,INITIATIVE D'EXCELLENCE AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITE(2011), Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Govern de les Illes Balears, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Universitat de les Illes Balears (UIB)-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Département de Biologie - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - Brest (IFREMER Centre de Bretagne), Rossi, Vincent, Initiative d'excellence - Paris Sciences et Lettres - - PSL2010 - ANR-10-IDEX-0001 - IDEX - VALID, INITIATIVE D'EXCELLENCE AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITE - - Amidex2011 - ANR-11-IDEX-0001 - IDEX - VALID, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Toulon (UTLN), Institut de biologie de l'ENS Paris (UMR 8197/1024) (IBENS), and Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
Marine resources stewardships are progressively becoming more receptive to an effective incorporation of both ecosystem and environmental complexities into the analytical frameworks of fisheries assessment. Understanding and predicting marine fish production for spatially and demographically complex populations in changing environmental conditions is however still a difficult task. Indeed, fisheries assessment is mostly based on deterministic models that lack realistic parameterizations of the intricate biological and physical processes shaping recruitment, a cornerstone in population dynamics. We use here a large metapopulation of a harvested fish, the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), managed across transnational boundaries in the northwestern Mediterranean, to model fish recruitment dynamics in terms of physics‐dependent drivers related to dispersal and survival. The connectivity among nearby subpopulations is evaluated by simulating multi‐annual Lagrangian indices of larval retention, imports, and self‐recruitment. Along with a proxy of the regional hydroclimate influencing early life stages survival, we then statistically determine the relative contribution of dispersal and hydroclimate for recruitment across contiguous management units. We show that inter‐annual variability of recruitment is well reproduced by hydroclimatic influences and synthetic connectivity estimates. Self‐recruitment (i.e., the ratio of retained locally produced larvae to the total number of incoming larvae) is the most powerful metric as it integrates the roles of retained local recruits and immigrants from surrounding subpopulations and is able to capture circulation patterns affecting recruitment at the scale of management units. We also reveal that the climatic impact on recruitment is spatially structured at regional scale due to contrasting biophysical processes not related to dispersal. Self‐recruitment calculated for each management unit explains between 19% and 32.9% of the variance of recruitment variability, that is much larger than the one explained by spawning stock biomass alone, supporting an increase of consideration of connectivity processes into stocks assessment. By acknowledging the structural and ecological complexity of marine populations, this study provides the scientific basis to link spatial management and temporal assessment within large marine metapopulations. Our results suggest that fisheries management could be improved by combining information of physical oceanography (from observing systems and operational models), opening new opportunities such as the development of short‐term projections and dynamic spatial management., M. Hidalgo acknowledges support of two contracts funded by the Spanish national program “Ramon y Cajal” (RYC‐2015‐18646) and by the regional government of the Balearic Islands, the later co‐funded by the European Social Fund 2014‐2020. V. Rossi acknowledges support of a post‐doctoral ‘Juan de la Cierva Incorporacion’ fellowship (IJCI‐2014‐22343) provided by the Spanish MICINN and a networking grant through the HYDROGENCONNECT project funded by the French program MISTRALS ENVI‐Med. E. Ser‐Giacomi thanks French program “Investissements d'Avenir” (ANR‐10‐LABX‐54 MEMOLIFE and ANR‐11‐IDEX‐0001‐02 PSL Research University). This work was also supported by the Spanish National projects LAOP (CTM2015‐66407‐P) P. Monroy and E. Hernandez‐Garcia and CLIFISH (CTM2015‐66400‐C3‐1‐R) and to M. Hidalgo, B. Guijarro, and E. Massuti (AEI/FEDER, EU). P. Reglero and M. Hidalgo acknowledge funding of the H2020 PANDORA project (Nr. 773713).