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This article argues that inflows of foreign direct investment can facilitate export upgrading in host countries. Using customs data merged with firm-level information for 2005–11, it shows a positive relationship between the quality of products exported by Romanian firms and the presence of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the upstream (input-supplying) industries. Export quality is also positively related to MNE presence in the downstream (input-sourcing) industries and the same industry, but these relationships are less robust. These conclusions hold both when the product quality is proxied with unit values and when it is estimated following the approach of Khandelwal et al. (2013).

The COVID-19 pandemic has drawn attention to high dependence of industrialized countries on Chinese suppliers and led to calls for increasing resilience through diversification of supply sources. T...

Information asymmetries constitute a significant obstacle to capital flows across international borders, and in particular to flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets. Many governments aim to reduce information barriers by engaging in investment promotion activities. Despite potentially large benefits of FDI and popularity of investment promotion intermediaries (IPIs), relatively little is known about their effectiveness. This study uses data collected through the Global Investment Promotion Benchmarking (GIPB) exercise to examine whether higher quality of IPI services translates into higher FDI inflows. The analysis, based on information on 156 countries, suggests that countries with IPIs able to handle investor inquiries in a more professional manner and IPIs possessing higher quality Web sites tend to attract greater volume of FDI. These results are robust to using sector-level data and instrumental variable approach. (JEL codes: F21, F23, H11) Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

This paper examines the effect of obtaining an ISO 9000 certification on various aspects of business performance using firm-level panel data from Slovenia covering the period 1987-2006. To control for the possible endogeneity of obtaining the certification propensity score matching is combined with a difference-in-differences approach. The results indicate that an ISO 9000 certification boost the certified firm's sales, exports and employment. It also has a positive effect on profits, profitability ratio, labor productivity and wages, though these effects appear with a delay and the latter two are less robust.

This paper examines the effect of foreign ownership on gender†related employment outcomes and work practices in Japan. The data indicate that the proportion of females among workers, managers, directors and board members is higher in foreign affiliates than in domestic firms of comparable size operating in the same industry. Foreign affiliates are also more likely to offer flexible working arrangements, telecommuting and childcare subsidies as well as employ foreign workers. These effects are visible almost exclusively in older affiliates. The analysis of foreign acquisitions combining propensity score matching with a difference in differences suggests that increase in the female labour share takes place a few years after the ownership change. All these patterns are in line with the view that it takes time to transplant corporate culture to an overseas affiliate.

This study finds that even small unexpected supply shocks propagate downstream through production networks and are amplified by firms with short-term financial constraints. The unexpected 2011 increase in the tax on imports purchased with foreign-sourced trade credit is examined using data capturing almost all Turkish supplier-customer links. The identification strategy exploits the heterogeneous impact of the shock on importers. The results indicate that this relatively minor, non-localized shock had a non-trivial economic impact on exposed firms and propagated downstream through affected suppliers. Additional empirical tests, motivated by a simple theory, demonstrate that low-liquidity firms amplified its transmission.

This study documents a substantial decline in the exports of major trading nations taking place in March 2020 Accounting for product-specific seasonality and annual trends, the data suggest a drop by 38 per cent in France, about a quarter in Turkey and Germany, and 12 per cent in the US, relative to their historical averages Detailed export data from Turkey, disaggregated by financing terms, show another striking pattern Flows using bank intermediation which eliminates or reduces the risk of non-payment or non-arrival of prepaid goods, such as letters of credit or documentary collection, appear to have been much more resilient to the current downturn relative to flows using other financing terms These findings suggest that access to trade finance is vital during times of heightened uncertainty © The Author(s) 2020 Published by Oxford University Press For permissions please e-mail: journals permissions@oup com

This paper draws attention to import duty evasion as a margin through which firms adjust to changes in trade policy. This margin is different from the other forms of adjustment, as it can be employed very fast and thus it may constitute the initial reaction to the shock before a slower adjustment through the other channels takes place. The study also proposes a new method of detecting tax evasion in international trade, based on deviations from Benford's law. It applies the method in the context of an unexpected policy change in Turkey that increased the cost of import financing. The results are consistent with an immediate increase in tax evasion in the affected import flows, which dies down a year later. A standard approach to detecting tariff evasion, based on “missing trade”, confirms these conclusions.

We review the implications of the "core competence" model of multi-product firms, including the “market-size paradox”: for most countries, the world market is much larger than the home market, while the costs of accessing foreign markets are relatively low; hence the model predicts that most domestic firms should export more of their core products than they sell domestically; yet, in practice, we do not observe this. Extending the model to allow for investment in export market penetration resolves the puzzle, and Mexican data confirm its predictions: in particular,only the largest firms exhibit the dominance of exports over home sales.

The link between foreign ownership and environmental performance remains a controversial issue. This paper contributes to our understanding of this subject by analyzing the impact of foreign acquisitions on plant-level energy intensity. The analysis applies a difference-in-differences approach combined with propensity score matching to the data from the Indonesian Manufacturing Census for the period 1983–2001 (or 1983–2008 in robustness checks). It covers 210 acquisition cases where an acquired plant is observed two years before and at least three years after an ownership change and for which a carefully selected control plant exists. The results suggest that while foreign ownership increases the overall energy usage due to expansion of output, it decreases the plant's energy intensity. Specifically, acquired plants reduce energy intensity by about 30% two years after acquisition, relative to the control plants. In contrast, foreign divestments tend to increase energy intensity. At the aggregate level, entry of foreign-owned plants is associated with industry-wide reduction in energy intensity.

This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the decline in Germany’s trend growth and a systematic failure to correctly anticipate recessions. We show that the German government also deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy. Finally, we find evidence that these deviations are driven by political motives.

The growth of India's manufacturing sector since 1991 has been attributed mostly to trade liberalization and more permissive industrial licensing. This paper demonstrates the significant impact of a neglected factor: India's policy reforms in services. The authors examine the link between those reforms and the productivity of manufacturing firms using panel data for about 4,000 Indian firms from1993 to 2005. They find that banking, telecommunications, insurance and transport reforms all had significant, positive effects on the productivity of manufacturing firms. Services reforms benefited both foreign and locally-owned manufacturing firms, but the effects on foreign firms tended to be stronger. A one-standard-deviation increase in the aggregate index of services liberalization resulted in a productivity increase of 11.7 percent for domestic firms and 13.2 percent for foreign enterprises.

The literature has documented how firms adjust to increased competitive pressures arising from globalization. This paper demonstrates a new margin of adjustment, namely, provision of trade credit. A simple model predicts that an increase in competitive pressures will lead exporters to provide trade credit and lower prices and that the price adjustment will be attenuated by trade credit provision. These predictions are tested in the context of an exogenous shock, the end of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA), a quota system governing trade in textiles and clothing until the end-2004. The analysis focuses on Turkey which was not subject to quotas in the EU and thus faced an increase in competition after the quotas on China had been removed. The results suggest that in the post-MFA period Turkish exports of products with binding MFA quotas prior to the shock saw an increase in the provision of trade credit and a drop in prices relative to the other products. There is also evidence that provision of trade credit generated a dampening effect on the price response to the increase in competition.

This article examines the relationship between the presence of foreign affiliates and product upgrading by Turkish manufacturing firms. The analysis suggests that Turkish firms in sectors and regions more likely to supply foreign affiliates tend to introduce more complex products, where complexity is captured using a measure developed by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009). This finding is robust to controlling for omitted variables, sample selection and potential simultaneity bias. It is also in line with the view that inflows of foreign direct investment stimulate upgrading of indigenous production capabilities in host countries.

This paper examines the effect of Walmart's entry into Mexico on Mexican manufacturers of consumer goods. Guided by firm interviews that suggested substantial heterogeneity across firms in how they responded to Walmart's entry, we develop a dynamic industry model in which firms decide whether to sell their products through Walmex (short for Walmart de Mexico), or use traditional retailers. Walmex provides access to a larger market, but it puts continuous pressure on its suppliers to improve their product's appeal, and it forces them to accept relatively low prices relative to product appeal. Simulations of the model show that the arrival of Walmex separates potential suppliers into two groups. Those with relatively high-appeal products choose Walmex as their retailer, whereas those with lower appeal products do not. For the industry as a whole, the model predicts that the associated market share reallocations, adjustments in innovative effort, and exit patterns increase productivity and the rate of innovation. These predictions accord well with the results from our firm interviews. The model's predictions are also supported by establishment-level panel data that characterize Mexican producers' domestic sales, investments, and productivity gains in states with differing levels of Walmex presence during the years 1994 to 2002.

This study argues that there is a systematic difference in the gender wage gap (GWG) between exporting firms and non-exporters. Exporters may require greater commitment from their employees, such as working particular hours to communicate with partners in different time zones or travelling at short notice, and may therefore disproportionately reward employee flexibility. If women are less flexible, or perceived as such, exporters will exhibit a higher GWG than non-exporters. This hypothesis is examined using matched employer-employee data from the Norwegian manufacturing sector for 1996–2010. The results suggest a firm's entry into exporting increases the GWG by about 3 percentage points for college educated workers. A lower overlap in business hours between the Norwegian exporter and its foreign markets and a greater need for interactions with foreign buyers are associated with a higher GWG.

Are jobs created by foreign investors good jobs? The evidence reviewed in this article is consistent with the view that jobs created by foreign direct investment (FDI) are good jobs, both from the worker’s and the country’s perspective. From the worker’s perspective, this is because such jobs are likely to pay higher wages than jobs in domestic firms, at least in developing countries, and because foreign employers tend to offer more training than local firms do. From the country’s perspective, jobs in foreign affiliates are good jobs because FDI inflows boost the aggregate productivity of the host country.

Despite the controversy often surrounding retail sector liberalization, there little empirical evidence on the implications of such a reform. Using data from Romania, this study sheds light on what happens to the supplying industries after a country opens its retail sector to foreign direct investment. The study relies on a unique dataset combining outlet-specific information on global retail chains with a panel of Romanian manufacturing firms. The difference-in-difference analysis finds that the expansion of global retail chains leads to a significant increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) in the supplying manufacturing industries: their entry into a region raises the TFP by 3.8–4.7%. These results suggest that liberalizing retail sector can boost performance of domestic manufacturing. (JEL codes: F23, F14, L81, D24)

The literature has documented a positive effect of foreign ownership on firm performance. But is this effect due to a one-time knowledge transfer or does it rely on continuous injections of knowledge? To shed light on this question we focus on divestments, that is, foreign affiliates that are sold to local owners. To establish a causal effect of the ownership change we combine a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching. We use plant-level panel data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing covering the period 1990-2009. We consider 157 cases of divestment, where a large set of plant characteristics is available two years before and three years after the ownership change and for which observationally similar control plants exist. The results indicate that divestment is associated with a drop in total factor productivity accompanied by a dec line in output, markups as well as export and import intensity. The findings are consistent with the benefits of foreign ownership being driven by continuous supply of headquarter services from the foreign parent. Forthcoming in the Journal of the European Economic Association .

This study documents some unintended consequences of the World Trade Organization (WTO) membership by providing evidence on displacement of tariff evasion driven by the WTO accession process. The analysis focuses on the WTO Customs Valuation Agreement (CVA) which limits the discretion of customs officials when it comes to assessing the price of imports. While prior to the WTO accession customs officials are free to use their own judgment or apply minimum or reference prices, after their country joined the WTO they are mandated to accept the invoice price issued by the exporter. If customs officials enjoy discretion with respect to assessing the import price, they may assist importers with tariff evasion in exchange for bribes. Removing such discretion limits their ability to facilitate misrepresentation of import prices. Using data on 15 countries which joined the WTO between 1996 and 2008, we find a positive relationship between underreporting of import prices and the tariff rate, which is expected as the incentive to evade increases with the tariff rate. Importantly, this relationship disappears after a country joins the WTO. This result is consistent with the CVA closing one channel for corrupt behavior. However, we also find that changes to customs valuation procedures induce importers to seek alternative ways of tariff evasion, such as underreporting of quantities and product misclassification. The overall level of evasion remains unchanged.

As red tape in host countries and information asymmetries constitute a \ud significant obstacle to investment flows across international borders, an important \ud policy question is: what can aspiring FDI destinations do to reduce such barriers? This \ud study uses newly collected data on 124 countries to examine the effects of investment \ud promotion on inflows of US FDI. We test whether sectors explicitly targeted by \ud investment promotion agencies in their efforts to attract FDI receive more investment \ud in the post-targeting period, relative to the pre-targeting period and non-targeted \ud sectors. The results of our analysis are consistent with investment promotion leading \ud to higher FDI flows to countries in which red tape and information asymmetries are \ud likely to be severe. The data suggest that investment promotion works in developing \ud countries but not in industrialized economies. \ud

How does the preferred entry mode of foreign investors depend on their technological capability relative to that of their rivals? The authors develop a simple model of entry mode choice and evaluate its main testable implication using data on foreign investors in Eastern European countries and the successor states of the former Soviet Union. The model considers competition between two asymmetric foreign investors and captures the following tradeoffs: while a joint venture helps a foreign investor secure a better position in the product market compared with its rival, it also requires that profits be shared with the local partner. The model predicts that the efficient foreign investor is less likely to choose a joint venture and more likely to enter directly relative to the inefficient investor. The authors' empirical analysis supports this prediction: foreign investors with more sophisticated technologies and marketing skills (relative to other firms in their industry) tend to prefer direct entry to joint ventures. This empirical finding is robust to controlling for host country-specific effects and other commonly cited determinants of entry mode.

This study presents evidence suggesting that attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) offers potential for raising the quality of exports in developing countries. Our analysis relates unit values of exports at the four-digit SITC level to data on sectors treated by investment promotion agencies as a priority in their efforts to attract FDI. The sample covers 105 countries from 1984 to 2000. The findings are consistent with a positive effect of FDI on unit values of exports in developing countries. The evidence for high-income economies is ambiguous. There is no indication that FDI increases the similarity of export structure of developing and developed economies. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

While there is considerable empirical evidence on the impact of liberalizing trade in goods, the effects of services liberalization have not been empirically established. Using firm-level data from the Czech Republic for the period 1998-2003, this study examines the link between services sector reforms and the productivity of domestic firms in downstream manufacturing. Several aspects of services reform are considered and measured, namely, the increased presence of foreign providers, privatization, and enhanced competition. The manufacturing-services linkage is measured using information on the degree to which manufacturing firms in a particular industry rely on intermediate inputs from specific services sectors. The econometric results lead to two conclusions. First, the study finds that services policy matters for the productivity of manufacturing firms relying on services inputs. This finding is robust to several econometric specifications, including controlling for unobservable firm heterogeneity and for other aspects of openness. Second, it finds evidence that opening services sectors to foreign providers is a key channel through which services liberalization contributes to improved performance of downstream manufacturing sectors. This finding is robust to instrumenting for the extent of foreign presence in services industries. As most barriers to foreign investment today are not in goods but in services sectors, the findings may strengthen the argument for reform in this area.

The authors use a firm-level panel data set from Romania to examine whether the nationality of foreign investors affects the degree of vertical spillovers from foreign direct investment. Investors' country of origin may matter for spillovers to domestic producers in upstream sectors (supplying intermediate inputs) in two ways. First, the share of intermediate inputs sourced by multinationals from a host country is likely to increase with the distance between the host and the source economy. Second, the sourcing pattern is likely to be affected by preferential trade agreements that cover some but not other source economies. In this case, the Association Agreement signed between Romania and the European Union (EU) implies that inputs sourced from the EU are subject to a lower tariff than inputs sourced from America or Asia. Moreover, while for European investors intermediate inputs sourced from home country suppliers comply with the rules of origin and thus can be exported to the EU on preferential terms, this would not be the case for home country suppliers of American or Asian multinationals. Therefore, one would expect that American and Asian investors source more from Romania than EU investors and thus present greater potential for vertical spillovers. The empirical analysis produces evidence in support of the authors' hypothesis. They find a positive association between the presence of American and Asian companies in downstream sectors and the productivity of Romanian firms in the supplying industries. Further, the productivity of Romanian firms in the supplying sectors is negatively correlated with operations of European investors in downstream sectors. The differences between the effects associated with investors of different origin are statistically significant.

While there exists sizeable literature documenting the importance of ethnic networks for international trade, little attention has been devoted to studying the effects of networks on foreign direct investment (FDI). The existence of ethnic networks may positively affect FDI by promoting information flows across international borders and by serving as a contract enforcement mechanism. This paper investigates the link between the presence of migrants in the United States and U.S. FDI in the migrants' countries of origin, taking into account the potential endogeneity concerns. The results suggest that U.S. FDI abroad is positively correlated with the presence of migrants from the host country. The data further indicate that the relationship between FDI and migration is driven by the presence of migrants with a college education.

This paper studies the impact of corruption in emerging markets on the mode of entry and volume of inward foreign direct investment using a unique firm-level data set. It examines two effects of corruption simultaneously: a reduction in the volume of foreign investment and a shift in the ownership structure. Corruption makes local bureaucracy less transparent and hence acts as a tax on foreign investors. Moreover, corruption affects the decision to take on a local partner. On the one hand, corruption increases the value of using a local partner to cut through the bureaucratic maze. On the other hand, corruption decreases the effective protection of investor's intangible assets and lowers the probability that disputes between foreign and domestic partners will be adjudicated fairly, which reduces the value of having a local partner. The importance of protecting intangible assets increases with investor's technological sophistication, which tilts the preference away from joint ventures in a corrupt country. Empirical evidence shows that corruption reduces inward FDI and shifts the ownership structure towards joint ventures. Technologically more advanced firms are found to be less likely to engage in joint ventures.

Using a unique data set on the Czech Republic for 1994--2003, this article examines the relationship between a firm's liquidity constraints and its supply linkages with multinational corporations (MNCs). The empirical analysis indicates that Czech firms supplying multinationals are less credit constrained than are nonsuppliers. Closer inspection of the timing of the effect, however, suggests that the result is due to self-selection of less constrained firms into supplying multinationals rather than to the benefits derived from the supplying relationship. As the recent literature finds that productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) are most likely to take place through contacts between MNCs and their local suppliers, this finding suggests that well-developed financial markets may be needed to take full advantage of the benefits associated with FDI inflows. Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

This paper uses micro data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing to analyze the causal relationship between foreign ownership and various aspects of plant performance. It examines the implications of foreign ownership in three different contexts: entry of foreign investors through greenfield projects, foreign acquisitions and foreign privatizations. To control for the possible endogeneity of FDI decision propensity score matching is combined with a difference-in-differences approach when the latter two settings are considered. The results suggest that new greenfield entrants outperform new domestic producers in terms of productivity. They also tend to be larger, more capital intensive and more involved in international trade. Further, the findings indicate that foreign ownership leads to significant productivity improvements in the acquired plants. The improvements become visible in the acquisition year and continue in subsequent periods. After three years, the acquired plants exhibit a 13.5 percent higher productivity than the control group. The rise in productivity is a result of restructuring, as acquired plants increase investment outlays, employment and wages. Foreign ownership also appears to enhance the integration of plants into the global economy through increased exports and imports. Finally, productivity improvements and evidence of restructuring are also found in the context of foreign privatizations.

This paper uses a case study approach to explore the effects of NAFTA and GATT membership on innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents and surfactants (SDS) industry. Several basic findings emerge. First, the most fundamental effect of NAFTA and the GATT on the SDS industry was to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Mexico. Once there, Walmex fundamentally changed the retail sector, forcing SDS firms to cut their profit margins and/or innovate. Those unable to respond to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in some cases, disappear altogether. Second, partly in response to Walmex, many Mexican producers logged impressive efficiency gains during the previous decade. These gains came both from labour-shedding and from innovation, which in turn was fuelled by innovative input suppliers and by multinationals bringing new products and processes from their headquarters to Mexico. Finally, although Mexican detergent exports captured an increasing share of the U.S. detergent market over the past decade, Mexican sales in the U.S. were inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping delays at the border and artificially high input prices (due to Mexican protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). They were also held back by the major re-tooling costs that Mexican producers would have had to incur in order to establish brand recognition among non-Latin consumers, and in order to comply with zero phosphate laws in many regions of the United States

Although some economists remain skeptical of the existence of positive externalities associated with foreign direct investment (FDI), many countries spend large sums attracting foreign investors in the hope of benefiting from knowledge spillovers. Data collected through enterprise surveys conducted in the Czech Republic and Latvia suggest that the entry of multinationals affects domestic enterprises in the same industry or in upstream or downstream sectors through multiple channels. Some of these channels represent true knowledge spillovers while others have positive or negative effects on domestic producers in other ways. The relative magnitudes of these channels depend on host country conditions and the type of FDI inflows, which explains the seemingly inconsistent findings of the literature. The focus of the debate should shift from attempting to generalize about whether or not FDI leads to productivity spillovers to determining under what conditions it can do so. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

While the impact of globalization on income inequality has received a lot of attention, little is known about its effect on the gender wage gap (GWG). This study argues that there is a systematic difference in the GWG between exporting firms and non-exporters. By the virtue of being exposed to higher competition, exporters require greater commitment and flexibility from their employees. If commitment is not easily observable and women are perceived as less committed workers than men, exporters will statistically discriminate against female employees and will exhibit a higher GWG than non-exporters. We test this hypothesis using matched employer-employee data from the Norwegian manufacturing sector from 1996 to 2010. Our identification strategy relies on an exogenous shock, namely, the legislative changes that increased the length of the parental leave that is available only to fathers. We argue that these changes have narrowed the perceived commitment gap between the genders and show that the initially higher GWG observed in exporting firms relative to non-exporters has gone down after the changes took place.

Many countries strive to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) hoping that knowledge brought by multinationals will spill over to domestic industries and increase their productivity. In contrast with earlier literature that failed to find positive intraindustry spillovers from FDI, this study focuses on effects operating across industries. The analysis, based on firm-level data from Lithuania, produces evidence consistent with positive productivity spillovers from FDI taking place through contacts between foreign affiliates and their local suppliers in upstream sectors. The data indicate that spillovers are associated with projects with shared domestic and foreign ownership but not with fully owned foreign investments.

The literature has documented a positive effect of foreign ownership on firm performance. But is this effect due to a one-time knowledge transfer or does it rely on continuous injections of knowledge? To shed light on this question we focus on divestments, that is, foreign affiliates that are sold to local owners. To establish a causal effect of the ownership change we combine a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching. We use plant-level panel data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing covering the period 1990-2009. We consider 157 cases of divestment, where a large set of plant characteristics is available two years before and three years after the ownership change and for which observationally similar control plants exist. The results indicate that divestment is associated with a drop in total factor productivity accompanied by a decline in output, markups as well as export and import intensity. The findings are consistent with the benefits of foreign ownership being driven by continuous supply of headquarter services from the foreign parent.

During the past two decades many economies have opened their retail sector to foreign direct investment, yet little is known about possible implications of such liberalization on the economies of developing host countries. Using firm-level data from Romania, this study examines how the presence of global retail chains affects firms in the supplying industries. Applying a difference-in-differences method, the econometric analyses yield the following conclusions. The expansion of global retail chains leads to a significant increase in the total factor productivity in the supplying industries. Their presence in a region increases the total factor productivity of firms in the supplying industries by 15.2 percent and doubling the number of chains leads to a 10.8 percent increase in total factor productivity. However, the expansion benefits larger firms the most and has a much smaller impact on small enterprises. This conclusion is robust to several extensions and specifications, including the instrumental variable approach. These results suggest that the opening of the retail sector to foreign direct investment may stimulate productivity growth in upstream manufacturing and extend our understanding of foreign direct investment in service sectors.

This paper examines the effect of Wal-Mart's entry into Mexico on Mexican manufacturers of consumer goods. Guided by firm interviews that suggested substantial heterogeneity across firms in how they responded to Wal-Mart's entry, we develop a dynamic industry model in which firms decide whether to sell their products through Walmex (short for Wal-Mart de Mexico), or use traditional retailers. Walmex provides access to a larger market, but it puts continuous pressure on its suppliers to improve their product's appeal, and it forces them to accept relatively low prices relative to product appeal. Simulations of the model show that the arrival of Walmex separates potential suppliers into two groups. Those with relatively high-appeal products choose Walmex as their retailer, whereas those with lower appeal products do not. For the industry as a whole, the model predicts that the associated market share reallocations, adjustments in innovative effort, and exit patterns increase productivity and the rate of innovation. These predictions accord well with the results from our firm interviews. The model's predictions are also supported by establishment-level panel data that characterize Mexican producers' domestic sales, investments, and productivity gains in regions with differing levels of Walmex presence during the years 1994 to 2002.