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Background: Paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) in premenopausal women is often judged to be related to anxiety, and may be associated with the menstrual cycle. The aim of this study was to determine whether a cyclical variation of episodes of SVT exists and to correlate such variation with cyclical variation in plasma ovarian hormones.Methods: 26 women (mean age 36 [SD 8] years; with paroxysmal SVT were screened; those with regular menses who experienced at least three episodes of paroxysmal SVT in two consecutive 48-hour ambulatory ECG recordings were included. 13 patients (aged 32 [6] years) met these criteria. Patients underwent 48-hour ambulatory ECG monitoring and determination of plasma concentrations of oestradiol-17 beta and progesterone on day 7, 14, 21, and 28 of their menstrual cycle.Findings: An increase in the number and duration of episodes of paroxysmal SVT was observed on day 28 as compared to day 7 of the menstrual cycle. A significant positive correlation was found between plasma progesterone and number of episodes and duration of SVT (5.6 [2.2] ng/mL; r=0.83, p=0.0004; and r=0.82, p=0.0005), while a significant inverse correlation was found between plasma oestradiol-17 beta and number of episodes and duration of SVT (155 [22] pg/mL; r=0.89, p<0.0001; and r=0.81, p=0.0007).Interpretation: Women with paroxysmal SVT and normal menses exhibit a cyclical variation in the occurrence of the arrhythmia with their menstrual cycle. There is a close correlation between the episodes of paroxysmal SVT and the plasma concentrations of ovarian hormones. These data suggest that changes in plasma levels of ovarian hormones (and their interaction) may be of importance in determining episodes of arrhythmia in such patients. The mechanisms of these effects are unknown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Common Reed Phragmites australis, globally one of the mostly widely distributed wetland plants, is important for biodiversity and for humans. However, like most wetland plant communities, reedbed has rarely been mapped at large geographical scales, restricting the information available to study reed's range dynamics or inform its management. Using Sentinel-2 data and machine learning, we aimed to produce the first published remotely-sensed reedbed map of Britain; however, accuracy as assessed by field validation was relatively low (AUC = 0.671), with many false positives (commission error of 93.4%). A similar workflow carried out in Google Earth Engine, using nearly an order of magnitude more images, gave a lower commission error but a disproportionately higher omission error. Using the known commission and omission error, we estimate that in 2015-2017 ~ 7800 ha of Britain was reedbed. Our study highlights the enduring barriers to accurate land cover classification at large spatial scales. Even with a 'big data' approach, reflectance error and ecological factors such as confusion land cover types and geographical variation in temporal reflectance function will probably continue to limit the size of area for which land cover can be classified accurately, therefore limiting the utility of remote sensing for ecologists., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Surface freshwater is a vital resource that is declining globally, predominantly due to climate and land use changes. Cambodia is no exception and the loss threatens many species, such as the giant ibis a Critically Endangered waterbird. We aimed to quantify the spatial and temporal (2000-2020) change of surface water availability across northern and eastern Cambodia and to assess the impact of this on the giant ibis. We used a Random Forest Classifier to determine the changes and we tested the impact of land use and geographical covariates using spatially explicit regression models. We found an overall reduction of surface water availability of 4.16%. This was predominantly driven by the presence of Economic Land Concessions and roads which increased the probability of extreme drying and flooding events. The presence of protected areas reduced these probabilities. We found changes in precipitation patterns over the wider landscape did not correlate with changes in surface water availability, supporting the overriding influence of land use change. 98% of giant ibis nests recorded during the time period were found within 25m of surface water during the dry season, highlighting their dependency on surface water. The overall surface water decline resulted in a 25% reduction in dry season suitable habitat for the giant ibis. Although absolute changes in surface water over the whole area were relatively small, the impact on the highest quality habitat for ibis is disproportionate and therefore threatens its populations. Defining the threats to such an endangered species is crucial for effective management., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Mamalis et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km 2 ) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Semiarid rangelands are identified as at high risk of degradation due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Through tracking timelines of degradation we aimed to identify whether degradation results from a loss of resistance to environmental shocks, or loss of recovery, both of which are important prerequisites for restoration. Here we combined extensive field surveys with remote sensing data to explore whether long-term changes in grazing potential demonstrate loss of resistance (ability to maintain function despite pressure) or loss of recovery (ability to recover following shocks). To monitor degradation, we created a bare ground index: a measure of grazeable vegetation cover visible in satellite imagery, allowing for machine learning based image classification. We found that locations that ended up the most degraded tended to decline in condition more during years of widespread degradation but maintained their recovery potential. These results suggest that resilience in rangelands is lost through declines in resistance, rather than loss of recovery potential. We show that the long-term rate of degradation correlates negatively with rainfall and positively with human population and livestock density, and conclude that sensitive land and grazing management could enable restoration of degraded landscapes, given their retained ability to recover., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Illegal hunting is a persistent problem in many protected areas, but an overview of the extent of this problem and its impact on wildlife is lacking. We reviewed 40 years (1980-2020) of global research to examine the spatial distribution of research and socio-ecological factors influencing population decline within protected areas under illegal hunting pressure. From 81 papers reporting 988 species/site combinations, 294 mammal species were reported to have been illegally hunted from 155 protected areas across 48 countries. Research in illegal hunting has increased substantially during the review period and showed biases towards strictly protected areas and the African continent. Population declines were most frequent in countries with a low human development index, particularly in strict protected areas and for species with a body mass over 100 kg. Our results provide evidence that illegal hunting is most likely to cause declines of large-bodied species in protected areas of resource-poor countries regardless of protected area conservation status. Given the growing pressures of illegal hunting, increased investments in people's development and additional conservation efforts such as improving anti-poaching strategies and conservation resources in terms of improving funding and personnel directed at this problem are a growing priority., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist

Research on global patterns of diversity has been dominated by studies seeking explanations for the equator-to-poles decline in richness of most groups of organisms, namely the latitudinal diversity gradient. A problem with this gradient is that it conflates two key explanations, namely biome stability (age and area) and productivity (ecological opportunity). Investigating longitudinal gradients in diversity can overcome this problem. Here we investigate a longitudinal gradient in plant diversity in the megadiverse Cape Floristic Region (CFR). We test predictions of the age and area and ecological opportunity hypotheses using metrics for both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and turnover. Our plant dataset includes modeled occurrences for 4,813 species and dated molecular phylogenies for 21 clades endemic to the CFR. Climate and biome stability were quantified over the past 140,000 y for testing the age and area hypothesis, and measures of topographic diversity, rainfall seasonality, and productivity were used to test the ecological opportunity hypothesis. Results from our spatial regression models showed biome stability, rainfall seasonality, and topographic heterogeneity were the strongest predictors of taxonomic diversity. Biome stability alone was the strongest predictor of all diversity metrics, and productivity played only a marginal role. We argue that age and area in conjunction with non-productivity-based measures of ecological opportunity explain the CFR's longitudinal diversity gradient. We suggest that this model may possibly be a general explanation for global diversity patterns, unconstrained as it is by the collinearities underpinning the latitudinal diversity gradient., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti-Mara show high spatial variability-with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short-term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems., (© 2019 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

An appreciation of body size allometry is central for understanding insect pollination ecology. A recent model utilises allometric coefficients for five of the seven extant bee families (Apoidea: Anthophila) to include crucial but difficult-to-measure traits, such as proboscis length, in ecological and evolutionary studies. Melittidae were not included although they are important pollinators in South Africa where they comprise an especially rich and morphologically diverse fauna. We measured intertegular distance (correlated with body size) and proboscis length of 179 specimens of 11 species from three genera of Melittidae. With the inclusion of Melittidae, we tested the between family differences in the allometric scaling coefficients. AIC model selection was used to establish which factors provide the best estimate of proboscis length. We explored a hypothesis that has been proposed in the literature, but which has not been tested, whereby body and range sizes of bees are correlated with rainfall regions. We tested this by using body size measurements of 2109 museum specimens from 56 species of Melittidae and applied the model coefficients to estimate proboscis length and foraging distance. Our results from testing differences across bee families show that with the addition of Melittidae, we retained the overall pattern of significant differences in the scaling coefficient among Apoidea, with our model explaining 98% of the variance in species-level means for proboscis length. When testing the relationship between body size and rainfall region we found no relationship for South African Melittidae. Overall, this study has added allometric scaling coefficients for an important bee family and shown the applicability of using these coefficients when linked with museum specimens to test ecological hypothesis., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols' own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE-E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE-E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE-ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE-ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE-E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching-activity-specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE-ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment., (© 2018 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Poaching is contributing to rapid declines in elephant populations across Africa. Following high-profile changes in the political environment, the overall number of illegally killed elephants in Africa seems to be falling, but to evaluate potential conservation interventions we must understand the processes driving poaching rates at local and global scales. Here we show that annual poaching rates in 53 sites strongly correlate with proxies of ivory demand in the main Chinese markets, whereas between-country and between-site variation is strongly associated with indicators of corruption and poverty. Our analysis reveals a recent decline in annual poaching mortality rate from an estimated peak of over 10% in 2011 to <4% in 2017. Based on these findings, we suggest that continued investment in law enforcement could further reduce poaching, but is unlikely to succeed without action that simultaneously reduces ivory demand and tackles corruption and poverty.

Protected areas provide major benefits for humans in the form of ecosystem services, but landscape degradation by human activity at their edges may compromise their ecological functioning. Using multiple lines of evidence from 40 years of research in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, we find that such edge degradation has effectively "squeezed" wildlife into the core protected area and has altered the ecosystem's dynamics even within this 40,000-square-kilometer ecosystem. This spatial cascade reduced resilience in the core and was mediated by the movement of grazers, which reduced grass fuel and fires, weakened the capacity of soils to sequester nutrients and carbon, and decreased the responsiveness of primary production to rainfall. Similar effects in other protected ecosystems worldwide may require rethinking of natural resource management outside protected areas., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines.

Fire is a fundamental process in savannas and is widely used for management. Pyrodiversity, variation in local fire characteristics, has been proposed as a driver of biodiversity although empirical evidence is equivocal. Using a new measure of pyrodiversity (Hempson et al.), we undertook the first continent-wide assessment of how pyrodiversity affects biodiversity in protected areas across African savannas. The influence of pyrodiversity on bird and mammal species richness varied with rainfall: strongest support for a positive effect occurred in wet savannas (> 650 mm/year), where species richness increased by 27% for mammals and 40% for birds in the most pyrodiverse regions. Range-restricted birds were most increased by pyrodiversity, suggesting the diversity of fire regimes increases the availability of rare niches. Our findings are significant because they explain the conflicting results found in previous studies of savannas. We argue that managing savanna landscapes to increase pyrodiversity is especially important in wet savannas., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available., (© 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The conditions required by rare species are often only approximately known. Monitoring such species over time can help refine management of their protected areas. We report population trends of a rare moth, the Dark Bordered Beauty Epione vespertaria (Linnaeus, 1767) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) at its last known English site on a protected lowland heath, and those of its host-plant, Salix repens (L.) (Malpighiales: Salicaceae). Between 2007 and 2014, adult moth density reduced by an average of 30-35% annually over the monitored area, and its range over the monitored area contracted in concert. By comparing data from before this decline (2005) with data taken in 2013, we show that the density of host-plants over the monitored area reduced three-fold overall, and ten-fold in the areas of highest host-plant density. In addition, plants were significantly smaller in 2013. In 2005, moth larvae tended to be found on plants that were significantly larger than average at the time. By 2013, far fewer plants were of an equivalent size. This suggests that the rapid decline of the moth population coincides with, and is likely driven by, changes in the host-plant population. Why the host-plant population has changed remains less certain, but fire, frost damage and grazing damage have probably contributed. It is likely that a reduction in grazing pressure in parts of the site would aid host-plant recovery, although grazing remains an important site management activity. Our work confirms the value of constant monitoring of rare or priority insect species, of the risks posed to species with few populations even when their populations are large, of the potential conflict between bespoke management for species and generic management of habitats, and hence the value of refining our knowledge of rare species' requirements so that their needs can be incorporated into the management of protected areas.

Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999-2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site-level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required., (© 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the most common bacterial pathogen infecting the lungs of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. The transmissible Liverpool epidemic strain (LES) harbours multiple inducible prophages (LESϕ2; LESϕ3; LESϕ4; LESϕ5; and LESϕ6), some of which are known to confer a competitive advantage in an in vivo rat model of chronic lung infection. We used quantitative PCR (Q-PCR) to measure the density and dynamics of all five LES phages in the sputa of 10 LES-infected CF patients over a period of 2 years. In all patients, the densities of free-LES phages were positively correlated with the densities of P. aeruginosa, and total free-phage densities consistently exceeded bacterial host densities 10-100-fold. Further, we observed a negative correlation between the phage-to-bacterium ratio and bacterial density, suggesting a role for lysis by temperate phages in regulation of the bacterial population densities. In 9/10 patients, LESϕ2 and LESϕ4 were the most abundant free phages, which reflects the differential in vitro induction properties of the phages. These data indicate that temperate phages of P. aeruginosa retain lytic activity after prolonged periods of chronic infection in the CF lung, and suggest that temperate phage lysis may contribute to regulation of P. aeruginosa density in vivo.

Wildlife and humans tend to prefer the same productive environments, yet high human densities often lead to reduced biodiversity. Species richness is often positively correlated with human population density at broad scales, but this correlation could also be caused by unequal sampling effort leading to higher species tallies in areas of dense human activity. We examined the relationships between butterfly species richness and human population density at five spatial resolutions ranging from 2' to 60' across South Africa. We used atlas-type data and spatial interpolation techniques aimed at reducing the effect of unequal spatial sampling. Our results confirm the general positive correlation between total species richness and human population density. Contrary to our expectations, the strength of this positive correlation did not weaken at finer spatial resolutions. The patterns observed using total species richness were driven mostly by common species. The richness of threatened and restricted range species was not correlated to human population density. None of the correlations we examined were particularly strong, with much unexplained variance remaining, suggesting that the overlap between butterflies and humans is not strong compared to other factors not accounted for in our analyses. Special consideration needs to be made regarding conservation goals and variables used when investigating the overlap between species and humans for biodiversity conservation.

Many populations of migratory songbirds are declining or shifting in distribution. This is likely due to environmental changes that alter factors such as food availability that may have an impact on survival and/or breeding success. We tested the impact of experimentally supplemented food on the breeding success over three years of northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a species in decline over much of Europe. The number of offspring fledged over the season was higher for food-supplemented birds than for control birds. The mechanisms for this effect were that food supplementation advanced breeding date, which, together with increased resources, allowed further breeding attempts. While food supplementation did not increase the clutch size, hatching success or number of chicks fledged per breeding attempt, it did increase chick size in one year of the study. The increased breeding success was greater for males than females; males could attempt to rear simultaneous broods with multiple females as well as attempting second broods, whereas females could only increase their breeding effort via second broods. Multiple brooding is rare in the study population, but this study demonstrates the potential for changes in food availability to affect wheatear breeding productivity, primarily via phenotypic flexibility in the number of breeding attempts. Our results have implications for our understanding of how wheatears may respond to natural changes in food availability due to climate changes or changes in habitat management.

The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate-driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate-driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Temperature-, rainfall- and habitat-driven change in food availability is one likely mechanism by which anthropogenic factors may affect animal population dynamics and species distributions. Long-distance migratory birds must synchronize their migrations with food availability at locations hundreds or thousands of kilometers apart, so changes in the overall abundance of food or the phenology of peaks in food availability may be critical factors influencing annual survival. In this study we used experimental food supplementation at a breeding site to examine and compare the impact of changing food supply on annual survival of adult migratory birds and their offspring. We provided supplemental food to Northern Wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) breeding on Fair Isle, UK, to infer the sensitivity of annual survival to increases in natural food availability. Food-supplemented wheatears exhibited higher rates of annual survival than control wheatears, and the strength of this effect varied with age. Food supplementation led to 1.56 times higher annual survival of juveniles and 1.22 times higher survival of adults. Survival of juveniles was related to their own food availability as fledglings, but not to whether their parents were food-supplemented or unfed control adults. This increased survival, combined with increased breeding productivity associated with food supplementation, implies that an increase in natural food availability, of the magnitude simulated in our experiment, would increase the population growth rate of wheatears on Fair Isle from approximately lambda = 0.93 (a contracting population) to lambda = 1.14 (an expanding population).

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Ecologists trying to understand the value of habitat to animals must first describe the value of resources contained in the habitat to animals and, second, they must describe spatial variation in resource quality at a resolution relevant to individual animal foraging. We addressed these issues in a study of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in a Eucalyptus woodland. We measured beneficial and deterrent chemical characteristics as well as the palatability of trees using a near-infrared spectroscopic model based on direct feeding experiments. Tree use by koalas was influenced by tree size and foliar quality but was also context-dependent: trees were more likely to be visited if they were surrounded by small, unpalatable trees or by large, palatable trees. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and several mapping approaches demonstrated that foliar quality is spatially structured in the woodland at a scale relevant to foraging decisions by koalas and that the spatial structure is an important component of habitat quality.

Understanding functional relationships within ecological networks can help reveal keys to ecosystem stability or fragility. Revealing these relationships is complicated by the difficulties of isolating variables or performing experimental manipulations within a natural ecosystem, and thus inferences are often made by matching models to observational data. Such models, however, require assumptions-or detailed measurements-of parameters such as birth and death rate, encounter frequency, territorial exclusion, and predation success. Here, we evaluate the use of a Bayesian network inference algorithm, which can reveal ecological networks based upon species and habitat abundance alone. We test the algorithm's performance and applicability on observational data of avian communities and habitat in the Peak District National Park, United Kingdom. The resulting networks correctly reveal known relationships among habitat types and known interspecific relationships. In addition, the networks produced novel insights into ecosystem structure and identified key species with high connectivity. Thus, Bayesian networks show potential for becoming a valuable tool in ecosystem analysis.

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.

Predicting how species distributions might shift as global climate changes is fundamental to the successful adaptation of conservation policy. An increasing number of studies have responded to this challenge by using climate envelopes, modeling the association between climate variables and species distributions. However, it is difficult to quantify how well species actually match climate. Here, we use null models to show that species-climate associations found by climate envelope methods are no better than chance for 68 of 100 European bird species. In line with predictions, we demonstrate that the species with distribution limits determined by climate have more northerly ranges. We conclude that scientific studies and climate change adaptation policies based on the indiscriminate use of climate envelope methods irrespective of species sensitivity to climate may be misleading and in need of revision.

1. Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2. We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3. Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4. Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5. All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3.6% (compared with an observed decline of 1.2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6. Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels.

Combining the wealth of epidemiological, metabolic and recent mechanistic data, it would appear biologically plausible that HRT, either oestrogen alone or in combination with progestogen, is cardioprotective. Further research is required, as information is lacking on cardiovascular effects of HRT instigated at an older age. There is a need to identify cardiovascular benefit, indirect and/or direct, of combined oestrogen/progestogen therapy using randomized trials. The various progestogen types and doses also need to be investigated. Studies are also required to investigate the effect of HRT use in higher risk patients with established CVD. There is scant information on the effect of HRT on blood pressure of patients with hypertension. Cardiovascular risk factor profiles and incidence surveys need to be conducted in developing countries to characterize their female population and to identify the prevalence of CVD; this needs to be undertaken before widespread recommendations on CVD prevention and the role of HRT can be made. If HRT is to be used effectively in the future treatment of heart disease in women these questions need to be addressed. At present HRT is indicated for the relief of menopausal symptoms and the prevention of osteoporosis. In women without these indications, ORT may be recommended in those who have had a premature menopause, and possibly in those who have established CHD or who are at high risk of developing CHD. It is too early to suggest a blanket recommendation for the use of HRT in the treatment of the symptoms of women with established CVD, but HRT after the menopause may at least be safely used in the secondary prevention of CHD.

This paper reviews the evidence for calcium-antagonist properties of oestrogen which may offer long-term protective effects on the cardiovascular system in postmenopausal women. Oestrogen has already been shown to have a beneficial effect on cholesterol metabolism and deposition, thereby inhibiting the formation of atherosclerotic plaque and coronary atheroma. Calcium antagonism, resulting in both acute and chronic modulation of coronary and peripheral vasomotion, is another mechanism by which oestrogens may provide cardiovascular benefits to women, including those with existing cardiovascular disease.

This paper reviews the evidence regarding the cardioprotective effects of oestrogen replacement therapy in postmenopausal women. Oestrogens have been shown to improve serum lipid profiles, carbohydrate metabolism, and insulin sensitivity; prevent the formation and development of atherosclerotic plaque; reduce blood pressure and plasma fibrinogen levels; and favourably affect overall cardiac function. Thus, oestrogen replacement therapy may prevent or inhibit the progression of existing coronary disease, and may also have a protective effect against acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular ischaemic events.

Background: Women are protected from coronary artery disease until the menopause. Ovarian hormones are vasoactive substances that influence both hemodynamic parameters and atheroma formation. Intravenous ethinyl estradiol has been shown to reverse acetylcholine-induced vasoconstriction in cynomolgus monkeys and humans, and 17 beta-estradiol improves exercise-induced myocardial ischemia in female patients. We investigated the effect of the naturally occurring estrogen 17 beta-estradiol on the coronary circulation in postmenopausal women and men with coronary artery disease., Methods and Results: We studied nine postmenopausal women 59 +/- 3 years old, mean +/- SEM, and seven men 52 +/- 4 years old with proven coronary artery disease. They underwent measurement of coronary artery diameter and coronary blood flow after intracoronary infusion of acetylcholine 1.6 and 16 micrograms/min before and 20 minutes after intracoronary administration of 2.5 micrograms of 17 beta-estradiol into atherosclerotic, nonstenotic coronary arteries. Changes in coronary artery diameter were measured by quantitative angiography, and changes in coronary blood flow were measured with an intracoronary Doppler catheter. In female patients, acetylcholine 1.6 and 16 micrograms/min caused constriction before the administration of 17 beta-estradiol (-6 +/- 2% and -8 +/- 5%, respectively, compared with baseline). This constrictor response was converted to dilatation after intracoronary administration of 17 beta-estradiol (+8 +/- 2% and +9 +/- 3%, respectively; P < .01 before versus after estrogen). Acetylcholine 1.6 and 16 micrograms/min increased coronary blood flow before and after the infusion of 17 beta-estradiol. However, the mean acetylcholine-induced increases in coronary flow were significantly greater (P < .009) after (126 +/- 37% and 248 +/- 89%, respectively) than before (94 +/- 31% and 143 +/- 49% mL/min, respectively) the administration of 17 beta-estradiol. 17 beta-Estradiol alone had no significant effect on coronary diameter or coronary blood flow (P > .05). Isosorbide dinitrate (1 mg) caused dilatation of the coronary arteries by 11 +/- 2% (P < .005). In men, acetylcholine 1.6 and 16 micrograms/min caused constriction both before and after the administration of 17 beta-estradiol and caused similar increases in coronary blood flow both before and after the intracoronary administration of 17 beta-estradiol. Infusion of intracoronary placebo in six female control patients 55 +/- 3 years old and six male control patients 56 +/- 3 years old did not change coronary diameter responses or coronary blood flow responses to acetylcholine., Conclusions: 17 beta-Estradiol modulates acetylcholine-induced coronary artery responses of female but not male atherosclerotic coronary arteries in vivo. These human data confirm reports from studies in cynomolgus monkeys that estrogen modulates the responses of atherosclerotic coronary arteries. An enhancement of endothelium-dependent relaxation by natural estrogen (as used in most hormone replacement therapy) may be important in postmenopausal women with established coronary heart disease and may contribute to the acute effect of 17 beta-estradiol on blood flow and its long-term protective effect on the development of coronary artery disease.