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3. Tracking electricity losses and their perceived causes using nighttime light and social media

Author

Kerber, Samuel W, Duncan, Nicholas A, LHer, Guillaume F, Bazilian, Morgan, Elvidge, Chris, and Deinert, Mark R

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks
Abstract

Urban environments are intricate systems where the breakdown of critical infrastructure can impact both the economic and social well-being of communities. Electricity systems hold particular significance, as they are essential for other infrastructure, and disruptions can trigger widespread consequences. Typically, assessing electricity availability requires ground-level data, a challenge in conflict zones and regions with limited access. This study shows how satellite imagery, social media, and information extraction can monitor blackouts and their perceived causes. Night-time light data (in March 2019 for Caracas, Venezuela) is used to indicate blackout regions. Twitter data is used to determine sentiment and topic trends, while statistical analysis and topic modeling delved into public perceptions regarding blackout causes. The findings show an inverse relationship between nighttime light intensity. Tweets mentioning the Venezuelan President displayed heightened negativity and a greater prevalence of blame-related terms, suggesting a perception of government accountability for the outages.

Published
2023

12. Building Conflict Uncertainty into Electricity Planning: A South Sudan Case Study

Author

Patankar, Neha, de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo, DeCarolis, Joseph F., Bazilian, Morgan D., and Chattopadhyay, Debabrata

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

This paper explores electricity planning strategies in South Sudan under future conflict uncertainty. A stochastic energy system optimization model that explicitly considers the possibility of armed conflict leading to electric power generator damage is presented. Strategies that hedge against future conflict have the greatest economic value in moderate conflict-related damage scenarios by avoiding expensive near-term investments in infrastructure that may be subsequently damaged. Model results show that solar photovoltaics can play a critical role in South Sudan's future electric power system. In addition to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and increasing access to electricity, this analysis suggests that solar can be used to hedge against economic losses incurred by conflict. While this analysis focuses on South Sudan, the analytical framework can be applied to other conflict-prone countries., Comment: 30 pages, 9 figures

Published
2019
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15. A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat

Author

Lazarus, Jeffrey V., Romero, Diana, Kopka, Christopher J., Karim, Salim Abdool, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Almeida, Gisele, Baptista-Leite, Ricardo, Barocas, Joshua A., Barreto, Mauricio L., Bar-Yam, Yaneer, Bassat, Quique, Batista, Carolina, Bazilian, Morgan, Chiou, Shu-Ti, del Rio, Carlos, Dore, Gregory J., Gao, George F., Gostin, Lawrence O., Hellard, Margaret, Jimenez, Jose L., Kang, Gagandeep, Lee, Nancy, Matičič, Mojca, McKee, Martin, Nsanzimana, Sabin, Oliu-Barton, Miquel, Pradelski, Bary, Pyzik, Oksana, Rabin, Kenneth, Raina, Sunil, Rashid, Sabina Faiz, Rathe, Magdalena, Saenz, Rocio, Singh, Sudhvir, Trock-Hempler, Malene, Villapol, Sonia, Yap, Peiling, Binagwaho, Agnes, Kamarulzaman, Adeeba, and El-Mohandes, Ayman

Published
2022
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46. Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar

Author

Clack, Christopher TM, Qvist, Staffan A, Apt, Jay, Bazilian, Morgan, Brandt, Adam R, Caldeira, Ken, Davis, Steven J, Diakov, Victor, Handschy, Mark A, Hines, Paul DH, Jaramillo, Paulina, Kammen, Daniel M, Long, Jane CS, Morgan, M Granger, Reed, Adam, Sivaram, Varun, Sweeney, James, Tynan, George R, Victor, David G, Weyant, John P, and Whitacre, Jay F

Subjects
Affordable and Clean Energy, Climate Action, energy systems modeling, climate change, renewable energy, energy costs, grid stability
Abstract

A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055", with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.

Published
2017

48. MINERAL SUPPLY CHAINS AND SPACE ASSETS: Mitigating Manufacturing Dependencies.

Author

WISCHER, GREGORY, AUTRY, GREGORY, and BAZILIAN, MORGAN D.

Abstract

Space is an increasingly competitive military domain. Both the United States and China seek to build and deploy significant numbers of space assets, most of which are mineralintensive. The mineral compositions of three important space assets—satellites, direct-ascent antisatellite weapons, and rocket bodies—require the United States to import minerals, particularly from China, for their construction. Consequently, the US space industry, and thus the US government, faces the associated risks of supply chain disruptions that can restrict mineral availability and cause price volatility, negatively impacting space asset production. This article proposes three policies to mitigate such risks to the mineral supply chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024

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