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OBJECTIVE: To compare the discriminative performance of the PURSUIT, GUSTO-1, GRACE, SRI and EMMACE risk models, assess their performance among risk supergroups and evaluate the EMMACE risk model over the wider spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). DESIGN: Observational study of a national registry. SETTING: All acute hospitals in England and Wales. PATIENTS: 100 686 cases of ACS between 2003 and 2005. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Model performance (C-index) in predicting the likelihood of death over the time period for which they were designed. The C-index, or area under the receiver-operating curve, range 0-1, is a measure of the discriminative performance of a model. RESULTS: The C-indexes were: PURSUIT C-index 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.80); GUSTO-1 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81); GRACE in-hospital 0.80 (0.80 to 0.81); GRACE 6-month 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80); SRI 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80); and EMMACE 0.78 (0.77 to 0.78). EMMACE maintained its ability to discriminate 30-day mortality throughout different ACS diagnoses. Recalibration of the model offered no notable improvement in performance over the original risk equation. For all models the discriminative performance was reduced in patients with diabetes, chronic renal failure or angina. CONCLUSION: The five ACS risk models maintained their discriminative performance in a large unselected English and Welsh ACS population, but performed less well in higher-risk supergroups. Simpler risk models had comparable performance to more complex risk models. The EMMACE risk score performed well across the wider spectrum of ACS diagnoses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Although early thrombolysis reduces the risk of death in STEMI patients, mortality remains high. We evaluated factors predicting inpatient mortality for patients with STEMI in a 'real-world' population.Design: Analysis of the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database using multivariate logistic regression and area under the receiver operating curve analysis.Setting: All acute hospitals in England and Wales.Patients: 34 722 patients with STEMI from 1 January 2003 to 31 March 2005.Results: Inpatient mortality was 10.6%. The highest odds ratios for inpatient survival were aspirin therapy given acutely and out-of-hospital thrombolysis, independently associated with a mortality risk reduction of over half. A 10-year increase in age doubled inpatient mortality risk, whereas cerebrovascular disease increased it by 1.7. The risk model comprised 14 predictors of mortality, C index = 0.82 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.83, p<0.001). A simple model comprising age, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and heart rate (HR) offered a C index of 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80, p<0.001).Conclusion: The strongest predictors of in-hospital survival for STEMI were aspirin therapy given acutely and out-of-hospital thrombolysis, Previous STEMI models have focused on age, SBP and HR We have confirmed the importance of these predictors in the discrimination of death after STEMI, but also demonstrated that other potentially modifiable variables impact upon the prediction of short-term mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment is central to the management of acute coronary syndromes. Often, however, assessment is not complete until the troponin concentration is available. Using 2 multicenter prospective observational studies (Evaluation of Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events [EMMACE] 2, test cohort, 1,843 patients; and EMMACE-1, validation cohort, 550 patients) of unselected patients with acute coronary syndromes, a point-of-admission risk stratification tool using frontal QRS-T angle derived from automated measurements and age for the prediction of 30-day and 2-year mortality was evaluated. Two-year mortality was lowest in patients with frontal QRS-T angles <38° and highest in patients with frontal QRS-T angles >104° (44.7% vs 14.8%, p <0.001). Increasing frontal QRS-T angle-age risk (FAAR) scores were associated with increasing 30-day and 2-year mortality (for 2-year mortality, score 0 = 3.7%, score 4 = 57%; p <0.001). The FAAR score was a good discriminator of mortality (C statistics 0.74 [95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.78] at 30 days and 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.79] at 2 years), maintained its performance in the EMMACE-1 cohort at 30 days (C statistics 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.8] at 30 days and 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.83] at 2 years), in men and women, in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, and compared favorably with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score. The integrated discrimination improvement (age to FAAR score at 30 days and at 2 years in EMMACE-1 and EMMACE-2) was p <0.001. In conclusion, the FAAR score is a point-of-admission risk tool that predicts 30-day and 2-year mortality from 2 variables across a spectrum of patients with acute coronary syndromes. It does not require the results of biomarker assays or rely on the subjective interpretation of electrocardiograms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The aim of this study was to explore the value of noninvasive predictors of death/mode of death in ambulant outpatients with chronic heart failure (HF).Background: Mortality in chronic HF remains high, with a significant number of patients dying of progressive disease. Identification of these patients is important.Methods: We recruited 553 ambulant outpatients age 63 +/- 10 years with symptoms of chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class, 2.3 +/- 0.5) and objective evidence of left ventricular dysfunction (ejection fraction <45%, cardiothoracic ratio >0.55, or pulmonary edema on chest radiograph). After 2,365 patient-years of follow-up, 201 patients had died, with 76 events due to progressive HF.Results: Independent predictors of all-cause mortality assessed with the Cox proportional hazards model were as follows: a low standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals (SDNN); lower serum sodium and higher creatinine levels; higher cardiothoracic ratio; nonsustained ventricular tachycardia; higher left ventricular end-systolic diameter; left ventricular hypertrophy; and increasing age. Independent predictors of death specific to progressive HF were SDNN, serum sodium and creatinine levels. The hazard ratio of progressive HF death for a 10% decrease in SDNN was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.12); for a 2 mmol/l decrease in serum sodium, 1.22 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.38); and for a 10 micromol/l increase in serum creatinine, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.19) (all p < 0.01).Conclusions: In ambulant outpatients with chronic HF, low serum sodium and SDNN and high serum creatinine identify patients at increased risk of death due to progressive HF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: International studies report a decline in mortality following ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The extent to which the observed improvements in STEMI survival are explained by temporal changes in patient characteristics and utilisation of treatments is unknown., Methods: Cohort study using national registry data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project between first January 2004 and 30th June 2013. 232 353 survivors of hospitalisation with STEMI as recorded in 247 hospitals in England and Wales. Flexible parametric survival modelling and causal mediation analysis were used to estimate the relative contribution of temporal changes in treatments and patient characteristics on improved STEMI survival., Results: Over the study period, unadjusted survival at 6 months and 1 year improved by 0.9% and 1.0% on average per year (HR: 0.991, 95% CI: 0.988 to 0.994 and HR: 0.990, 95% CI: 0.987 to 0.993, respectively). The uptake of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (HR: 1.025, 95% CI: 1.021 to 1.028) and increased prescription of P2Y 12 inhibitors (HR: 1.035, 95% CI: 1.031 to 1.039) were significantly associated with improvements in 1-year survival. Primary PCI explained 16.8% (95% CI: 10.8% to 31.6%) and 13.2% (9.2% to 21.9%) of the temporal survival improvements at 6 months and 1 year, respectively, whereas P2Y 12 inhibitor prescription explained 5.3% (3.6% to 8.8%) of the temporal improvements at 6 months but not at 1 year., Conclusions: For STEMI in England and Wales, improvements in survival between 2004 and 2013 were significantly explained by the uptake of primary PCI and increased use of P2Y 12 inhibitors at 6 months and primary PCI only at 1 year., Trial Registration Number: NCT03749694., Competing Interests: Competing interests: CPG reports personal fees and non-financial support from AstraZeneca, non-financial support from BMS-Pfizer, personal fees from Bayer, personal fees from Novartis, personal fees from Vifor Pharma, outside the submitted work. KAAF reports grants and personal fees from Bayer/Janssen, grants from AstraZeneca, personal fees from Sanofi/Regeneron, personal fees from Verseon, outside the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background:: High survival rates are commonly reported following primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction, with most contemporary studies reporting overall survival., Aims:: The aim of this study was to describe survival following primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction corrected for non-cardiovascular deaths by reporting relative survival and investigate clinically significant factors associated with poor long-term outcomes., Methods and Results:: Using the prospective UK Percutaneous Coronary Intervention registry, primary percutaneous coronary intervention cases ( n=88,188; 2005-2013) were matched to mortality data for the UK populace. Crude five-year relative survival was 87.1% for the patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention and 94.7% for patients <55 years. Increasing age was associated with excess mortality up to four years following primary percutaneous coronary intervention (56-65 years: excess mortality rate ratio 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.46-1.79; 66-75 years: 2.49, 2.26-2.75; >75 years: 4.69, 4.27-5.16). After four years, there was no excess mortality for ages 56-65 years (excess mortality rate ratio 1.27, 0.95-1.70), but persisting excess mortality for older groups (66-75 years: excess mortality rate ratio 1.72, 1.30-2.27; >75 years: 1.66, 1.15-2.41). Excess mortality was associated with cardiogenic shock (excess mortality rate ratio 6.10, 5.72-6.50), renal failure (2.52, 2.27-2.81), left main stem stenosis (1.67, 1.54-1.81), diabetes (1.58, 1.47-1.69), previous myocardial infarction (1.52, 1.40-1.65) and female sex (1.33, 1.26-1.41); whereas stent deployment (0.46, 0.42-0.50) especially drug eluting stents (0.27, 0.45-0.55), radial access (0.70, 0.63-0.71) and previous percutaneous coronary intervention (0.67, 0.60-0.75) were protective., Conclusions:: Following primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction, long-term cardiovascular survival is excellent. Failure to account for non-cardiovascular death may result in an underestimation of the efficacy of primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

Aims: To investigate whether improved survival from non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), according to GRACE risk score, was associated with guideline-indicated treatments and diagnostics, and persisted after hospital discharge., Methods and Results: National cohort study (n = 389 507 patients, n = 232 hospitals, MINAP registry), 2003-2013. The primary outcome was adjusted all-cause survival estimated using flexible parametric survival modelling with time-varying covariates. Optimal care was defined as the receipt of all eligible treatments and was inversely related to risk status (defined by the GRACE risk score): 25.6% in low, 18.6% in intermediate, and 11.5% in high-risk NSTEMI. At 30 days, the use of optimal care was associated with improved survival among high [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) -0.66 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-0.86, difference in absolute mortality rate (AMR) per 100 patients (AMR/100-0.19 95% CI -0.29 to -0.08)], and intermediate (aHR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.92; AMR/100 = -0.15, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.08) risk NSTEMI. At the end of follow-up (8.4 years, median 2.3 years), the significant association between the use of all eligible guideline-indicated treatments and improved survival remained only for high-risk NSTEMI (aHR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.50-0.96; AMR/100 = -0.03, 95% CI -0.06 to -0.01). For low-risk NSTEMI, there was no association between the use of optimal care and improved survival at 30 days (aHR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.69-1.38) and at 8.4 years (aHR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.39-3.74)., Conclusion: Optimal use of guideline-indicated care for NSTEMI was associated with greater survival gains with increasing GRACE risk, but its use decreased with increasing GRACE risk.

Background: Adherence to guideline-indicated care for the treatment of non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is associated with improved outcomes. We investigated the extent and consequences of non-adherence to guideline-indicated care across a national health system., Methods: A cohort study ( ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02436187) was conducted using data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project ( n = 389,057 NSTEMI, n = 247 hospitals, England and Wales, 2003-2013). Accelerated failure time models were used to quantify the impact of non-adherence on survival according to dates of guideline publication., Results: Over a period of 1,079,044 person-years (median 2.2 years of follow-up), 113,586 (29.2%) NSTEMI patients died. Of those eligible to receive care, 337,881 (86.9%) did not receive one or more guideline-indicated intervention; the most frequently missed were dietary advice ( n = 254,869, 68.1%), smoking cessation advice ( n = 245,357, 87.9%), P2Y12 inhibitors ( n = 192,906, 66.3%) and coronary angiography ( n = 161,853, 43.4%). Missed interventions with the strongest impact on reduced survival were coronary angiography (time ratio: 0.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.17-0.18), cardiac rehabilitation (time ratio: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.48-0.50), smoking cessation advice (time ratio: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.51-0.57) and statins (time ratio: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.55-0.58). If all eligible patients in the study had received optimal care at the time of guideline publication, then 32,765 (28.9%) deaths (95% CI: 30,531-33,509) may have been prevented., Conclusion: The majority of patients hospitalised with NSTEMI missed at least one guideline-indicated intervention for which they were eligible. This was significantly associated with excess mortality. Greater attention to the provision of guideline-indicated care for the management of NSTEMI will reduce premature cardiovascular deaths.

Background: The long-term excess risk of death associated with diabetes following acute myocardial infarction is unknown. We determined the excess risk of death associated with diabetes among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI) after adjustment for comorbidity, risk factors and cardiovascular treatments., Methods: Nationwide population-based cohort (STEMI n=281 259 and NSTEMI n=422 661) using data from the UK acute myocardial infarction registry, MINAP, between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2013. Age, sex, calendar year and country-specific mortality rates for the populace of England and Wales (n=56.9 million) were matched to cases of STEMI and NSTEMI. Flexible parametric survival models were used to calculate excess mortality rate ratios (EMRR) after multivariable adjustment. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02591576)., Results: Over 1.94 million person-years follow-up including 120 568 (17.1%) patients with diabetes, there were 187 875 (26.7%) deaths. Overall, unadjusted (all cause) mortality was higher among patients with than without diabetes (35.8% vs 25.3%). After adjustment for age, sex and year of acute myocardial infarction, diabetes was associated with a 72% and 67% excess risk of death following STEMI (EMRR 1.72, 95% CI 1.66 to 1.79) and NSTEMI (1.67, 1.63 to 1.71). Diabetes remained significantly associated with substantial excess mortality despite cumulative adjustment for comorbidity (EMRR 1.52, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.58 vs 1.45, 1.42 to 1.49), risk factors (1.50, 1.44 to 1.57 vs 1.33, 1.30 to 1.36) and cardiovascular treatments (1.56, 1.49 to 1.63 vs 1.39, 1.36 to 1.43)., Conclusions: At index acute myocardial infarction, diabetes was common and associated with significant long-term excess mortality, over and above the effects of comorbidities, risk factors and cardiovascular treatments., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Mild hypothermia has been shown to improve neurological outcome and reduce mortality following out of hospital cardiac arrest. In animal models the application of hypothermia with induced coronary occlusion has demonstrated a reduction in infarct size. Consequently, hypothermia has been proposed as a treatment, in addition to Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PPCI) for ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, there is incomplete understanding of the mechanism and magnitude of the protective effect of hypothermia on the myocardium, and limited outcome data. We undertook a structured literature review of therapeutic hypothermia as adjuvant to PPCI for acute STEMI. We examined the feasibility, safety, impact on infarct size and the resultant effect on major adverse cardiac events and mortality. There were 13 studies between 1946 and 2016. With the exception of one study, therapeutic hypothermia for STEMI was reported to be feasible and safe, and its only demonstrable benefit was a modest reduction in post-infarct heart failure events. Evidence to date, however, is from small clinical trials and in an era of low early mortality following PPCI for STEMI, demonstrating a mortality benefit will be challenging. Post-myocardial infarction left ventricular dysfunction is a more frequent, alternative clinical outcome and therefore any intervention that mitigates this warrants further investigation., (Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Importance: International studies report a decline in mortality following non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Whether this is due to lower baseline risk or increased utilization of guideline-indicated treatments is unknown., Objective: To determine whether changes in characteristics of patients with NSTEMI are associated with improvements in outcomes., Design, Setting, and Participants: Data on patients with NSTEMI in 247 hospitals in England and Wales were obtained from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project between January 1, 2003, and June 30, 2013 (final follow-up, December 31, 2013)., Exposures: Baseline demographics, clinical risk (GRACE risk score), and pharmacological and invasive coronary treatments., Main Outcomes and Measures: Adjusted all-cause 180-day postdischarge mortality time trends estimated using flexible parametric survival modeling., Results: Among 389 057 patients with NSTEMI (median age, 72.7 years [IQR, 61.7-81.2 years]; 63.1% men), there were 113 586 deaths (29.2%). From 2003-2004 to 2012-2013, proportions with intermediate to high GRACE risk decreased (87.2% vs 82.0%); proportions with lowest risk increased (4.2% vs 7.6%; P= .01 for trend). The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic renal failure, previous invasive coronary strategy, and current or ex-smoking status increased (all P < .001). Unadjusted all-cause mortality rates at 180 days decreased from 10.8% to 7.6% (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.968 [95% CI, 0.966-0.971]; difference in absolute mortality rate per 100 patients [AMR/100], -1.81 [95% CI, -1.95 to -1.67]). These findings were not substantially changed when adjusted additively by baseline GRACE risk score (HR, 0.975 [95% CI, 0.972-0.977]; AMR/100, -0.18 [95% CI, -0.21 to -0.16]), sex and socioeconomic status (HR, 0.975 [95% CI, 0.973-0.978]; difference in AMR/100, -0.24 [95% CI, -0.27 to -0.21]), comorbidities (HR, 0.973 [95% CI, 0.970-0.976]; difference in AMR/100, -0.44 [95% CI, -0.49 to -0.39]), and pharmacological therapies (HR, 0.972 [95% CI, 0.964-0.980]; difference in AMR/100, -0.53 [95% CI, -0.70 to -0.36]). However, the direction of association was reversed after further adjustment for use of an invasive coronary strategy (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03]; difference in AMR/100, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.33-0.86]), which was associated with a relative decrease in mortality of 46.1% (95% CI, 38.9%-52.0%)., Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients hospitalized with NSTEMI in England and Wales, improvements in all-cause mortality were observed between 2003 and 2013. This was significantly associated with use of an invasive coronary strategy and not entirely related to a decline in baseline clinical risk or increased use of pharmacological therapies.

Objectives: To investigate geographic variation in guideline-indicated treatments for non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in the English National Health Service (NHS)., Design: Cohort study using registry data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project., Setting: All Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) (n=211) in the English NHS., Participants: 357 228 patients with NSTEMI between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2013., Main Outcome Measure: Proportion of eligible NSTEMI who received all eligible guideline-indicated treatments (optimal care) according to the date of guideline publication., Results: The proportion of NSTEMI who received optimal care was low (48 257/357 228; 13.5%) and varied between CCGs (median 12.8%, IQR 0.7-18.1%). The greatest geographic variation was for aldosterone antagonists (16.7%, 0.0-40.0%) and least for use of an ECG (96.7%, 92.5-98.7%). The highest rates of care were for acute aspirin (median 92.8%, IQR 88.6-97.1%), and aspirin (90.1%, 85.1-93.3%) and statins (86.4%, 82.3-91.2%) at hospital discharge. The lowest rates were for smoking cessation advice (median 11.6%, IQR 8.7-16.6%), dietary advice (32.4%, 23.9-41.7%) and the prescription of P2Y12 inhibitors (39.7%, 32.4-46.9%). After adjustment for case mix, nearly all (99.6%) of the variation was due to between-hospital differences (median 64.7%, IQR 57.4-70.0%; between-hospital variance: 1.92, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.44; interclass correlation 0.996, 95% CI 0.976 to 0.999)., Conclusions: Across the English NHS, the optimal use of guideline-indicated treatments for NSTEMI was low. Variation in the use of specific treatments for NSTEMI was mostly explained by between-hospital differences in care. Performance-based commissioning may increase the use of NSTEMI treatments and, therefore, reduce premature cardiovascular deaths., Trial Registration Number: NCT02436187., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objective: We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF)., Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction., Results: After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R(2)=0.2; p<0.001) and with peak exercise-test heart rate (R(2)=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort., Conclusions: AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Aims: To examine the association between cumulative missed opportunities for care (CMOC) and mortality in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI)., Methods: A cohort study of 112,286 STEMI patients discharged from hospital alive between January 2007 and December 2010, using data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP). A CMOC score was calculated for each patient and included: pre-hospital ECG, acute use of aspirin, timely reperfusion, prescription at hospital discharge of aspirin, thienopyridine inhibitor, ACE-inhibitor (or equivalent), HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor and β-blocker, and referral for cardiac rehabilitation. Mixed-effects logistic regression models evaluated the effect of CMOC on risk-adjusted 30-day and 1-year mortality (RAMR)., Results: 44.5% of patients were ineligible for ≥1 care component. Of patients eligible for all nine components, 50.6% missed ≥1 opportunity. Pre-hospital ECG and timely reperfusion were most frequently missed, predicting further missed care at discharge (pre-hospital ECG incident rate ratio [95% CI]: 1.64 [1.58-1.70]; timely reperfusion 9.94 [9.51-10.40]). Patients ineligible for care had higher RAMR than those eligible for care (30-days: 1.7% vs. 1.1%; 1-year: 8.6% vs. 5.2%), whilst those with no missed care had lower mortality than patients with ≥4 CMOC (30-days: 0.5% vs. 5.4%, adjusted OR (aOR) per CMOC group 1.22, 95% CI: 1.05-1.42; 1-year: 3.2% vs. 22.8%, aOR 1.23, 1.13-1.34)., Conclusions: Opportunities for care in STEMI are commonly missed and significantly associated with early and later mortality. Thus, outcomes after STEMI may be improved by greater attention to missed opportunities to eligible care., (© The European Society of Cardiology 2014.)

Acute coronary syndromes presenting with ST elevation are usually treated with emergency reperfusion/revascularisation therapy. In contrast current evidence and national guidelines recommend risk stratification for non ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) with the decision on revascularisation dependent on perceived clinical risk. Risk stratification for STEMI has no recommendation. Statistical risk scoring techniques in NSTEMI have been demonstrated to improve outcomes however their uptake has been poor perhaps due to questions over their discrimination and concern for application to individuals who may not have been adequately represented in clinical trials. STEMI is perceived to carry sufficient risk to warrant emergency coronary intervention [by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)] even if this results in a delay to reperfusion with immediate thrombolysis. Immediate thrombolysis may be as effective in patients presenting early, or at low risk, but physicians are poor at assessing clinical and procedural risks and currently are not required to consider this. Inadequate data on risk stratification in STEMI inhibits the option of immediate fibrinolysis, which may be cost-effective. Currently the mode of reperfusion for STEMI defaults to emergency angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention ignoring alternative strategies. This review article examines the current risk scores and evidence base for risk stratification for STEMI patients. The requirements for an ideal STEMI risk score are discussed.

Advancing age is a risk factor for the development of coronary artery disease and is an important indicator of outcome after acute coronary syndrome. As the number of older adults increases, the burden of cardiovascular disease is set to grow particularly as older adults remain disadvantaged in the delivery of acute cardiac care. This article reviews the temporal changes in the provision of guideline recommended therapies for the management of acute coronary syndrome, discusses reasons for age-dependent inequalities in care and the challenges facing clinicians., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: Acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) is a major cause of hospitalisation and imparts a substantial burden on patients and healthcare systems. Tools to define risk of AHFS hospitalisation are lacking., Methods: A prospective cohort study (n=628) of patients with stable chronic heart failure (CHF) secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction was used to derive an AHFS prediction model which was then assessed in a prospectively recruited validation cohort (n=462)., Results: Within the derivation cohort, 44 (7%) patients were hospitalised as a result of AHFS during 1 year of follow-up. Predictors of AHFS hospitalisation included furosemide equivalent dose, the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, AHFS hospitalisation within the previous year and pulmonary congestion on chest radiograph, all assessed at baseline. A multivariable model containing these four variables exhibited good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.38) and discrimination (C-statistic 0.77; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.84). Using a 2.5% risk cut-off for predicted AHFS, the model defined 38.5% of patients as low risk, with negative predictive value of 99.1%; this low risk cohort exhibited <1% excess all-cause mortality per annum when compared with contemporaneous actuarial data. Within the validation cohort, an identically applied model derived comparable performance parameters (C-statistic 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87), Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.15, negative predictive value 100%)., Conclusions: A prospectively derived and validated model using simply obtained clinical data can identify patients with CHF at low risk of hospitalisation due to AHFS in the year following assessment. This may guide the design of future strategies allocating resources to the management of CHF., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background: Hospital acute myocardial infarction (AMI) care is increasingly evaluated using composite quality scores. We investigated the influence of three aggregation methods for an AMI indicator on mortality and hospital rank., Methods and Results: We studied 136,392 patients discharged alive from 199 hospitals with AMI recorded in the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project, between 01/01/2008 and 31/12/2009. A composite of prescription of aspirin, thienopyridine inhibitor, β-blocker, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, HMG CoA reductase enzyme inhibitor and enrolment in cardiac rehabilitation at discharge was aggregated as opportunity based (OBCS), weighted opportunity-based (WOBCS) and all-or-nothing (ANCS) scores. We quantified adjusted 30-day, 6-month and 1-year mortality rates and hospital performance rank. Median (IQR) scores were OBCS: 95.0% (3.5), WOBCS: 94.7% (0.8) and ANCS: 80.9% (11.8). The three methods affected the proportion of hospitals outside 99.8% credible limits of the national median (OBCS: 52.2%, WOBCS: 64.3% and ANCS: 37.7%) and hospital rank. Each 1% increase in composite score was significantly associated with a 1 to 3% and a 4% reduction in 6-month and 1-year mortality, respectively. However, the ANCS had fewer cases and no significant association with 30-day mortality., Conclusions: A hospital composite score, incorporating 6 aspects of AMI care, was significantly inversely associated with mortality. However, composite aggregation method influenced hospital rank, number of cases available for analysis and size of the association with all-cause mortality, with the ANCS performing least well. The use and choice of composite scores in hospital AMI quality improvement requires careful evaluation., (© 2013.)

Background: It is unclear whether diabetes mellitus (DM) is an adverse prognostic factor in chronic heart failure (CHF) of ischaemic and non-ischaemic aetiology managed with contemporary evidence-based care., Methods: In total, 1091 outpatients with CHF with reduced ejection fraction were prospectively observed for a mean of 960 days. Total and cardiovascular mortality was quantified after accounting for potential confounders., Results: In total, 25.7% of patients had DM; this group was more likely to have CHF of ischaemic aetiology and was more symptomatic. Patients with DM received comparable medical- and device-based therapies, except for greater doses of loop diuretic. DM was associated with approximately doubled crude and adjusted risk of total and cardiovascular mortality. The association of diabetes with these outcomes in patients with ischaemic and non-ischaemic cardiomyopathies was of similar magnitude., Conclusions: In spite of advances in the management of CHF, DM remains a major adverse prognostic feature, irrespective of ischaemic/non-ischaemic aetiology.

Aim: To investigate whether a hospital-specific opportunity-based composite score (OBCS) was associated with mortality in 136,392 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) 2008-2009., Methods and Results: For 199 hospitals a multidimensional hospital OBCS was calculated on the number of times that aspirin, thienopyridine, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi), statin, β-blocker, and referral for cardiac rehabilitation was given to individual patients, divided by the overall number of opportunities that hospitals had to give that care. OBCS and its six components were compared using funnel plots. Associations between OBCS performance and 30-day and 6-month all-cause mortality were quantified using mixed-effects regression analysis. Median hospital OBCS was 95.3% (range 75.8-100%). By OBCS, 24.1% of hospitals were below funnel plot 99.8% CI, compared to aspirin (11.1%), thienopyridine (15.1%), β-blockers (14.7%), ACEi (19.1%), statins (12.1%), and cardiac rehabilitation (17.6%) on discharge. Mortality (95% CI) decreased with increasing hospital OBCS quartile at 30 days [Q1, 2.25% (2.07-2.43%) vs. Q4, 1.40% (1.25-1.56%)] and 6 months [Q1, 7.93% (7.61-8.25%) vs. Q4, 5.53% (5.22-5.83%)]. Hospital OBCS quartile was inversely associated with adjusted 30-day and 6-month mortality [OR (95% CI), 0.87 (0.80-0.94) and 0.92 (0.88-0.96), respectively] and persisted after adjustment for coronary artery catheterization [0.89 (0.82-0.96) and 0.95 (0.91-0.98), respectively]., Conclusions: Multidimensional hospital OBCS in AMI survivors are high, discriminate hospital performance more readily than single performance indicators, and significantly inversely predict early and longer-term mortality.

Objective: To evaluate the performance of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) mini-Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) (MG) and adjusted mini-GRACE (AMG) risk scores., Design: Retrospective observational study., Setting: 215 acute hospitals in England and Wales., Patients: 137 084 patients discharged from hospital with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) between 2003 and 2009, as recorded in the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP)., Main Outcome Measures: Model performance indices of calibration accuracy, discriminative and explanatory performance, including net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement., Results: Of 495 263 index patients hospitalised with AMI, there were 53 196 ST elevation myocardial infarction and 83 888 non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) (27.7%) cases with complete data for all AMG variables. For AMI, AMG calibration was better than MG calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: p=0.33 vs p<0.05). MG and AMG predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were good (Brier score: 0.10 vs 0.09; C statistic: 0.82 and 0.84, respectively). The NRI of AMG over MG was 8.1% (p<0.05). Model performance was reduced in patients with NSTEMI, chronic heart failure, chronic renal failure and in patients aged ≥85 years., Conclusions: The AMG and MG risk scores, utilised by NICE, demonstrated good performance across a range of indices using MINAP data, but performed less well in higher risk subgroups. Although indices were better for AMG, its application may be constrained by missing predictors.

The increasing population in older age will lead to greater numbers of them presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). This has implications on global healthcare resources and necessitates better management and selection for evidenced-based therapies. The elderly are a high risk group with more significant treatment benefits than younger ACS. Nevertheless, age related inequalities in ACS care are recognised and persist. This discrepancy in care, to some extent, is explained by the higher frequency of atypical and delayed presentations in the elderly, and less diagnostic electrocardiograms at presentation, potentiating a delay in ACS diagnosis. Under estimation of mortality risk in the elderly due to limited consideration for physiological frailty, co-morbidity, cognitive/psychological impairment and physical disability, less input by cardiology specialists and lack of randomised, controlled trials data to guide management in the elderly may further confound the inequality of care. While these inequalities exist, there remains a substantial opportunity to improve age related ACS outcomes. The selection of elderly patients for specific therapies and medication regimens are unanswered. There is a growing need for randomised, controlled trial data to be more representative of the population and enroll those of advanced age with co-morbidity. A lack of reporting of adverse events, such as renal impairment post coronary angiography, in the elderly further limit risk benefit decisions. Substantial improvements in care of elderly ACS patients are required and should be advocated. Ultimately, these improvements are likely to lead to better outcomes post ACS. However, the improvement in outcome is not infinite and will be limited by non-modifiable factors of age-related risk.

Cardiac rehabilitation is an evidence-based intervention which has evolved over time and incorporates physical, psycho-social and educational components with the aim of improving the patients' functioning following a cardiac event. The evidence base for cardiac rehabilitation following acute myocardial infarction has been growing over the past half a century. Individual randomized control trials were small and, therefore, mortality outcomes usually failed to reach significance; however, meta-analyses have proven consistently that participation in cardiac rehabilitation following a myocardial infarction is associated with a significant improvement in mortality. In the era of revascularization and improved drug therapies, observational studies still provide evidence that independent of other treatments, cardiac rehabilitation is a life-saving measure. Although early studies often only studied young males, more contemporary data include patients from all sectors of society and have found that groups such as women, the elderly and those with heart failure appear to have greater mortality benefits compared with the traditional young male cohort. Uptake remains a problem and one challenge for the future is ensuring improved uptake on to good-quality rehabilitation programmes and demonstrating these positive effects.

In 2004 the British Cardiac Society redefined myocardial infarction by cardiac troponin I (cTnI) concentration: ≤ 0.06 μg/L (unstable angina), >0.06 to < 0.5 μg/L (myocardial necrosis), and ≥ 0.5 μg/L (myocardial infarction). We investigated the effects of this classification on all-cause mortality in 1,285 patients from the Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events (EMMACE)-2 registry. There were 528 deaths (6.6-year all-cause mortality 41.1%). Survival was greatest in the cTnI ≤ 0.06-μg/L subgroup at 30 days (p = 0.005), 6 months (p = 0.015), 1 year (p = 0.002), and 6.6 years (p = 0.045). After adjustment there was no significant difference in survival between the cTnI >0.06- to < 0.5-μg/L and ≥ 0.5-μg/L subgroups. Increased mortality (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval) was associated with ages 70 to 80 years (2.58, 1.17 to 3.91) and >80 years (3.30, 3.50 to 5.06), peripheral vascular disease (1.50, 1.16 to 1.94), heart failure (1.36, 1.05 to 1.83), diabetes mellitus (1.68, 1.36 to 2.07), severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction (1.50, 1.00 to 2.21), and creatinine per 10 μmol/L (1.65, 1.02 to 1.08), whereas ages 50 to 60 years (0.55, 0.32 to 0.96), β blockers (0.53, 0.44 to 0.64), aspirin (0.80 0.65 to 0.99), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (0.67, 0.56 to 0.80), statins (0.73, 0.59 to 0.90), and revascularization (0.33, 0.12 to 0.92) were associated with a lower risk of death. In conclusion, although quantitative evaluation of cTnI concentration in patients with acute coronary syndrome with cTnI > 0.06 μg/L was associated with no added prognostic information, the dichotomization of patients by cTnI status ("positive" and "negative") facilitates acute coronary syndrome risk stratification., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Therapies for patients with chronic heart failure caused by left ventricular systolic dysfunction have advanced substantially over recent decades. The cumulative effect of these therapies on mortality, mode of death, symptoms, and clinical characteristics has yet to be defined., Methods and Results: This study was a comparison of 2 prospective cohort studies of outpatients with chronic heart failure caused by left ventricular systolic dysfunction performed between 1993 and 1995 (historic cohort: n=281) and 2006 and 2009 (contemporary cohort: n=357). In the historic cohort, 83% were prescribed angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and 8.5% were prescribed β-adrenoceptor antagonists, compared with 89% and 80%, respectively, in the contemporary cohort. Mortality rates over the first year of follow-up declined from 12.5% to 7.8% between eras (P=0.04), and sudden death contributed less to contemporary mortality (33.6% versus 12.7%; P<0.001). New York Heart Association class declined between eras (P<0.001). QTc dispersion across the chest leads declined from 85 ms (SD, 2) to 34 ms (SD, 1) and left ventricular end-diastolic dimensions declined from 65 mm (SD, 0.6) to 59 mm (SD, 0.5) (both P<0.001)., Conclusions: Survival has significantly improved in patients with chronic heart failure caused by left ventricular systolic dysfunction over the past 15 years; furthermore, sudden death makes a much smaller contribution to mortality, and noncardiac mortality is a correspondingly greater contribution. This has been accompanied by an improvement in symptoms and some markers of adverse electric and structural left ventricular remodeling.

Aims: To quantify the determinants of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) performance in England and Wales between 2004 and 2007., Methods and Results: All 8653 primary PCI cases admitted to acute hospitals in England and Wales as recorded in the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) 2004-2007. We studied the impact of the volume of primary PCI cases (hospital volume) on door-to-balloon (DTB) times and the proportion of patients treated with primary PCI (hospital proportion) on 30-day mortality and employed regression analysis to identify reasons for DTB time variations with a multilevel component to express hospital variation. The proportion of patients receiving primary PCI increased from 5% in 2004 to 20% in 2007. Median DTB times reduced from 84 min in 2004 to 61 min in 2007. Median DTB times decreased as the number of primary PCI procedures increased. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate for hospitals performing primary PCI on >25% of ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients [5.0%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.9-6.1%] was almost double that of hospitals performing primary PCI on more than 75% (2.7%; 95% CI: 2.0-3.5%). Time-of-day, year of admission, sex, and diabetes significantly influenced DTB times. Hospital variation was evident by a hospital-level DTB time standard deviation of 12 min., Conclusions: There was a large variation in DTB times between the best and worst performing hospitals. Although patient-related factors impacted upon DTB times, the volume and proportion of patients undergoing primary PCI were significantly associated with delay and early mortality-hospitals with the highest proportion of primary PCI had the lowest mortality.

Background: Clinical governance requires health care professionals to improve standards of care and has resulted in comparison of clinical performance data. The Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (a UK cardiology dataset) tabulates its performance. However funnel plots are the display method of choice for institutional comparison. We aimed to demonstrate that funnel plots may be derived from MINAP data and allow more meaningful interpretation of data., Methods: We examined the attainment of National Service Framework standards for all hospitals (n = 230) and all patients (n = 99,133) in the MINAP database between 1st April 2003 and 31st March 2004. We generated funnel plots (with control limits at 3 sigma) of Door to Needle and Call to Needle thrombolysis times, and the use of aspirin, beta-blockers and statins post myocardial infarction., Results: Only 87,427 patients fulfilled criteria for analysis of the use of secondary prevention drugs and 15,111 patients for analysis by Door to Needle and Call to Needle times (163 hospitals achieved the standards for Door to Needle times and 215 were within or above their control limits). One hundred and sixteen hospitals fell outside the 'within 25%' and 'more than 25%' standards for Call to Needle times, but 28 were below the lower control limits. Sixteen hospitals failed to reach the standards for aspirin usage post AMI and 24 remained below the lower control limits. Thirty hospitals were below the lower CL for beta-blocker usage and 49 outside the standard. Statin use was comparable., Conclusion: Funnel plots may be applied to a complex dataset and allow visual comparison of data derived from multiple health-care units. Variation is readily identified permitting units to appraise their practices so that effective quality improvement may take place.

Objectives: To explore the relation between non-invasive measures of cardiac function and sudden cardiac death, as well as the development and utility of an index integrating these variables to identify patients at increased risk of this mode of death., Design: UK-HEART (United Kingdom-heart failure evaluation and assessment of risk trial) was a prospective study conducted between December 1993 and April 2000. The study was specifically designed to identify non-invasive markers of death and mode of death among patients with chronic heart failure., Setting: 8 UK general hospitals., Main Outcome Measures: Death and mode of death., Results: 553 patients aged a mean (SD) of 63 (10) years, in New York Heart Association functional class 2.3 (0.02), recruited prospectively. After 2365 patient-years' follow up, 201 patients had died (67 suddenly). Predictors of sudden death were greater cardiothoracic ratio, QRS dispersion, QT dispersion corrected for rate (QTc) across leads V1-V6 on the 12 lead ECG, and the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. The hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of sudden death for a 10% increase in cardiothoracic ratio was 1.43 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.71), for a 10% increase in QRS dispersion 1.11 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.19), for the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia 2.03 (95% CI 1.27 to 3.25), and for a 10% increase in QTc dispersion across leads V1-V6 1.03 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.07) (all p < 0.04). An index derived from these four factors performed well in identifying patients specifically at increased risk of sudden death., Conclusions: Results show that an index derived from three widely available non-invasive investigations has the potential to identify ambulant patients with chronic heart failure at increased risk of sudden death. This predictive tool could be used to target more sophisticated investigations or interventions aimed at preventing sudden death.

Background: Mortality in patients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure remains high. At present there is no easy way of identifying patients within this population at increased risk of death in the medium to long term., Aims: To develop a prognostic index to identify outpatients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure at increased risk of death., Methods and Results: Five hundred and fifty-three outpatients mean (S.D.) age 63(+/-10) years with symptoms of chronic heart failure (mean New York Heart Association functional class, 2.3(+/-0.5)), were recruited between December 1993 and April 1995. By April 2000, 201 patients had died. Using data from non-invasive measurements of cardiac size, electrical and autonomic function, renal function and plasma biochemistry we identified eight independent predictors of mortality (all P<0.01). To develop a prognostic index, predictors were dichotomised by group median and awarded 0 or 1 point accordingly. Serum sodium /=111 micromol/l (1 point), cardiothoracic ratio >/=0.52 (1 point), SDNN /=487 ms (1 point), QRS dispersion>/=42.7 ms (1 point), the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (1 point) and voltage criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy on 12-lead ECG (1 point). We calculated risk scores for patients by adding the points of each independent risk factor. In the low-risk group (0-3 points) mortality at 5 years was 20% and in the high-risk group (4-8 points) 53%. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve using dichotomised variables was 0.74 and for continuous model 0.78., Conclusions: Our prognostic index which uses eight non-invasive measurements and a straightforward additive points system, has good discrimination and stratifies outpatients with chronic heart failure into high and low risk. This index may be useful in clinical care and risk stratification.

Objective: To explore the current use of secondary preventive treatment in survivors of out of hospital cardiac arrest without myocardial infarction (primary ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF)) in West Yorkshire, and assess the implications of recent studies on the benefits of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (AICD) in this context., Design: Retrospective analysis of an ambulance service based database of outcome after resuscitation of out of hospital cardiac arrest and the Leeds AICD implantation database., Main Outcome Measures: Mortality, rate of referral for specialist investigation, antiarrhythmic treatment., Results: Twelve month mortality following successful discharge after primary VF arrest was 15%. Of 53 patients with primary VF/VT, 29 apparently did not see a cardiologist during the initial admission. Amiodarone was the most widely used antiarrhythmic agent. Six patients (15%) received an AICD. During the same period 22 patients from the same catchment area received an AICD following an in-hospital cardiac arrest., Conclusions: Mortality among survivors of non-infarct related prehospital cardiac arrest remains significant, with few patients being referred for specialist investigation. The implementation of recent guidelines on AICD use in cardiac arrest survivors would have resulted in an approximate 60% increase in the total numbers of defibrillators implanted in the West Yorkshire area.

Aims: Mortality in patients with heart failure remains high and is difficult to predict. QT interval parameters on a 12-lead ECG have been shown to predict arrhythmic events in patients with a variety of myocardial diseases. There is some, but not consistent, evidence that QT interval parameters may act as predictors of mortality, in particular sudden death, in patients with heart failure. In an adequately powered prospective study we have studied QT interval parameters in patients with stable chronic heart failure in order to determine whether they are predictive of all-cause mortality or mode of death., Methods and Results: Five hundred and fifty-four ambulant outpatients with chronic heart failure were recruited. A 12-lead ECG, chest radiograph, echocardiogram, 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram and serum for biochemical analysis were obtained at baseline. Patients were followed for 471+/-168 days. QT intervals were measured in all leads blinded to patient's characteristics and outcome, were corrected for heart rate, and the maximum QT intervals, and QT dispersion (range of QT intervals) were determined. The same parameters were determined for JT intervals. The primary end-point was all-cause mortality, secondary end-points were sudden cardiac death and death due to progressive heart failure. Multivariate analysis with the Cox's proportional hazards model was used to determine which variables were independently related to outcome. Four hundred and ninety-five patients had analysable ECGs at study entry and of these 71 died during follow-up. The heart rate corrected QT dispersion and maximum QT interval were significant univariate predictors of all-cause mortality (P=0.026 and <0.0001 respectively), and also of sudden death and progressive heart failure death, but were not related to outcome in the multivariate analysis. The independent predictors of all-cause mortality were cardiothoracic ratio (P=0.0003), creatinine (P=0.0009), heart rate (P=0.007), echocardiographically derived left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (P=0.007) and ventricular couplets on 24 h electrocardiographic monitoring (P=0.015)., Conclusion: In an adequately powered prospective study none of the QT or JT parameters were shown to be independent predictors of outcome in patients with mild to moderate congestive heart failure. These variables do not therefore add to the prognostic information which can be gained from simple radiographic, biochemical, echocardiographic and Holter data in this group of patients., (Copyright 1999 The European Society of Cardiology.)

Objective: To examine the relation between patterns of ventricular remodelling and haemodynamic and neurohormonal variables, at rest and during symptom limited exercise, in the year following acute myocardial infarction in patients not receiving angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors., Design: A prospective observational study., Patients: 65 patients recruited following hospital admission with a transmural anterior myocardial infarction., Methods: Central haemodynamics and neurohormonal activation at rest and during symptom limited treadmill exercise were measured at baseline before hospital discharge, one month later, and at three monthly intervals thereafter. PATIENTS were classified according to individual patterns of change in left ventricular end diastolic volumes at rest, assessed at each visit using transthoracic echocardiography., Results: In most patients (n = 43, 66%) ventricular volumes were unchanged or reduced. Mean (SEM) treadmill exercise capacity and peak exercise cardiac index increased at month 12 by 200 (24) seconds (p < 0.001 v baseline) and by 0.8 (0.4) l/min/m2 (p<0.05 v baseline), respectively, in this group. In patients with limited ventricular dilatation (n = 11, 17%) exercise capacity increased by 259 (52) seconds (p < 0.001 v baseline) and peak exercise cardiac index improved by 0.8 (0.7) l/min/m2 (NS). In the remaining 11 patients with progressive left ventricular dilatation, exercise capacity increased by 308 (53) seconds (p< 0. 001 v baseline) and peak exercise cardiac index similarly improved by 1.3 (0.7) l/min/m2 (NS). There were trends towards increased atrial natriuretic factor (ANF) secretion at rest and at peak exercise in this group., Conclusions: Ventricular dilatation after acute myocardial infarction is a heterogeneous process that is progressive in only a minority of patients. Compensatory mechanisms, including ANF release, appear capable of maintaining and improving exercise capacity in most patients for at least 12 months, even in those with a progressive increase in ventricular size.

Background: Patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) have a continuing high mortality. Autonomic dysfunction may play an important role in the pathophysiology of cardiac death in CHF. UK-HEART examined the value of heart rate variability (HRV) measures as independent predictors of death in CHF., Methods and Results: In a prospective study powered for mortality, we recruited 433 outpatients 62+/-9.6 years old with CHF (NYHA functional class I to III; mean ejection fraction, 0.41+/-0.17). Time-domain HRV indices and conventional prognostic indicators were related to death by multivariate analysis. During 482+/-161 days of follow-up, cardiothoracic ratio, SDNN, left ventricular end-systolic diameter, and serum sodium were significant predictors of all-cause mortality. The risk ratio for a 41.2-ms decrease in SDNN was 1.62 (95% CI, 1.16 to 2.44). The annual mortality rate for the study population in SDNN subgroups was 5.5% for >100 ms, 12.7% for 50 to 100 ms, and 51.4% for <50 ms. SDNN, creatinine, and serum sodium were related to progressive heart failure death. Cardiothoracic ratio, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, the presence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, and serum potassium were related to sudden cardiac death. A reduction in SDNN was the most powerful predictor of the risk of death due to progressive heart failure., Conclusions: CHF is associated with autonomic dysfunction, which can be quantified by measuring HRV. A reduction in SDNN identifies patients at high risk of death and is a better predictor of death due to progressive heart failure than other conventional clinical measurements. High-risk subgroups identified by this measurement are candidates for additional therapy after prescription of an ACE inhibitor.

Objectives: To assess the extent of junior doctor involvement in clinical audit, the degree of support from audit staff, and the perceived value of the resulting audits., Design: Postal survey of National Health Service (NHS) junior doctors., Subjects and Settings: 704 junior doctors in central Leeds hospitals, June 1996., Results: Questionnaires were returned by 232 respondents (33%), 211 (31%) were completed; 157 respondents (74%) had personally performed audit. Mean (+/- SD) duration since last audit project was 14.9 (14.1) (range 0-84) months. Of the respondents who had personally performed audit, 88 (56%) did not use the hospital audit department, 60 (38%) received no guidance and only 19 (12%) were involved in re-auditing the same project. Mean (+/- SD) time spent per audit project was 27.8 (37.7), (range 2-212) hours. Seventy-five junior doctors (48%) were aware of subsequent change in clinical practice, 41 (26%) perceived a negative personal benefit from audit, 33 (21%) perceived a negative departmental benefit, and 42 (27%) felt that audit was a waste of time., Conclusions: A large proportion of junior doctors are involved in audit projects that do not conform to established good practice and which have a low impact on clinical behaviour. Although junior doctors feel that there is inadequate assistance and poor supervision whilst performing audit, they still support the principle of audit. There is a need to improve the quality and supervision of audit projects performed by junior doctors.

The one-year survival, functional and cerebral capacity and patient management following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were examined in a follow-up study of 143 prospectively identified patients discharged from a West Yorkshire hospital between January 1987 and July 1993. One-year survival was 87%; 13 of the 18 deaths were cardiac related; 89% of survivors had no further cardiac related admissions; 98% of patients surviving to one year were capable of independent daily activities. There was low utilisation of simple drug therapy: 23% of patients were discharged taking beta-blockers and 52% aspirin; 50% of patients discharged after a primary arrhythmic event were taking antiarrhythmic therapy or were given an implantable defibrillator. Irrespective of the availability of invasive cardiac facilities, there was underutilisation of investigations: only 39% of patients were seen by a cardiologist and 54% were not evaluated for ischaemic risk. Significant improvements in patient management could probably be achieved quickly without substantial increases in resources.

Many patients with angina note that their symptoms deteriorate in cold weather, although the precise physiological mechanism that explains this remains unclear. Exposure of the face to cool winds may be a contributory factor. The cardiovascular and hormonal response to a localised stream of room (22 degrees C) and cold (4 degrees C) air during submaximal treadmill exercise was therefore studied in nine normal subjects. Cardiac output and respiratory gases were measured with a mass spectrometer, using the indirect Fick principle. Blood samples were taken for plasma noradrenaline. A localised stream of air at 5 m.s-1 produced significant cardiovascular effects at rest, some of which persisted during exercise. In response to cold air, stroke volume, cardiac output, blood pressure and oxygen uptake increased (all P < 0.05). There was a trend towards a reduction in heart rate at rest and increase in plasma noradrenaline. Room air caused a reduction in blood pressure (P = 0.01) but stroke volumes and oxygen uptake were unchanged. The results of this study demonstrate significant cardiovascular effects of a cooled air facial stimulus at rest and during exercise. They may, in part, explain the effects of cold winds on patients with angina.

Previous studies of neurohumoral activation following myocardial infarction have concentrated on the within-hospital phase and have only made measurements at rest. The objectives of this study were to measure neuroendocrine activity in the early convalescent phase of myocardial infarction at rest and during symptom-limited maximal exercise and to study the effects of early drug therapy. We studied 75 patients, mean age 57 (range 37-74) without evidence of overt heart failure, following Q-wave myocardial infarction. Patients were studied a mean of 17 days following myocardial infarction and compared with 11 age-matched control subjects. Plasma noradrenaline, adrenaline, atrial natriuretic peptide and plasma renin activity were measured at rest, at submaximal and symptom-limited maximal treadmill exercise. At the time of study 40 patients were taking beta-blockers, 19 diuretics and 16 no treatment. Atrial natriuretic peptide levels were higher at rest (P = 0.0001) and at symptom-limited exercise (P = 0.002) in the patient group than in the control subjects. Although there were no significant resting differences between the patient subgroups, at symptom-limited exercise plasma atrial natriuretic peptide levels were significantly higher in the patients taking beta-blockers than in the other patient groups (P = 0.001). Plasma renin activity was no different between the patients and the control subjects at rest or during exercise. Those patients taking diuretics had higher values at rest (P = 0.001) and during exercise (P = 0.005) compared with the remaining patients. There were no significant differences in resting or maximal exercise levels of plasma noradrenaline and adrenaline between the patients and the control subjects (all P > 0.1).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)