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Aim: Palms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change. Location: Tropical and subtropical moist forests. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Palms (Arecaceae). Methods: We assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co-occurring non-palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure. Results: On average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long-term climate stability. Life-form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non-tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above-ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work. Conclusions: Tree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests.

Correction for "Phylogenetic classification of the world's tropical forests, " by J. W. Ferry Slik, Janet Franklin, Víctor Arroyo- Rodríguez, Richard Field, Salomon Aguilar, Nikolay Aguirre, Jorge Ahumada, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Luciana F. Alves, Anitha K, Andres Avella, Francisco Mora, Gerardo A. Aymard C., Selene B?ez, Patricia Balvanera, Meredith L. Bastian, Jean-François Bastin, Peter J. Bellingham, Eduardo van den Berg, Polyanna da Conceição Bispo, Pascal Boeckx, Katrin Boehning-Gaese, Frans Bongers, Brad Boyle, Fabian Brambach, Francis Q. Brearley, Sandra Brown, Shauna-Lee Chai, Robin L. Chazdon, Shengbin Chen, Phourin Chhang, George Chuyong, Corneille Ewango, Indiana M. Coronado, Jurgi Crist?bal-Azkarate, Heike Culmsee, Kipiro Damas, H. S. Dattaraja, Priya Davidar, Saara J. DeWalt, Hazimah Din, Donald R. Drake, Alvaro Duque, Giselda Durigan, Karl Eichhorn, Eduardo Schmidt Eler, Tsutomu Enoki, Andreas Ensslin, Adand? Belarmain Fandohan, Nina Farwig, Kenneth J. Feeley, Markus Fischer, Olle Forshed, Queila Souza Garcia, Satish Chandra Garkoti, Thomas W. Gillespie, Jean- Francois Gillet, Christelle Gonmadje, Iñigo Granzow-de la Cerda, Daniel M. Griffith, James Grogan, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, David J. Harris, Rhett D. Harrison, Andy Hector, Andreas Hemp, J?rgen Homeier, M. Shah Hussain, Guillermo Ibarra-Manríquez, I. Faridah Hanum, Nobuo Imai, Patrick A. Jansen, Carlos Alfredo Joly, Shijo Joseph, Kuswata Kartawinata, Elizabeth Kearsley, Daniel L. Kelly, Michael Kessler, Timothy J. Killeen, Robert M. Kooyman, Yves Laumonier, Susan G. Laurance, William F. Laurance, Michael J. Lawes, Susan G. Letcher, Jeremy Lindsell, Jon Lovett, Jose Lozada, Xinghui Lu, Anne Mette Lykke, Khairil Bin Mahmud, Ni Putu Diana Mahayani, Asyraf Mansor, Andrew R. Marshall, Emanuel H. Martin, Darley Calderado Leal Matos, Jorge A.Meave, Felipe P. L. Melo, Zhofre Huberto Aguirre Mendoza, Faizah Metali, Vincent P. Medjibe, Jean Paul Metzger, Thiago Metzker, D. Mohandass, Miguel A. Munguía-Rosas, Rodrigo Muñoz, Eddy Nurtjahy, Eddie Lenza de Oliveira, Onrizal, Pia Parolin, Marc Parren, N. Parthasarathy, Ekananda Paudel, Rolando Perez, Eduardo A. P?rez-García, Ulf Pommer, Lourens Poorter, Lan Qi, Maria Teresa F. Piedade, Jos? Roberto Rodrigues Pinto, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Jennifer S. Powers, Rama Chandra Prasad, Jean-Philippe Puyravaud, Orlando Rangel, Jan Reitsma, Diogo S. B. Rocha, Samir Rolim, Francesco Rovero, Andes Rozak, Kalle Ruokolainen, Ervan Rutishauser, Gemma Rutten, Mohd. NizamMohd. Said, Felipe Z. Saiter, Philippe Saner, Braulio Santos, João Roberto dos Santos, Swapan Kumar Sarker, Christine B. Schmitt, Jochen Schoengart, Mark Schulze, Douglas Sheil, Plinio Sist, Alexandre F. Souza, Wilson Roberto Spironello, Tereza Sposito, Robert Steinmetz, Tariq Stevart, Marcio Seiji Suganuma, Rahayu Sukri, Aisha Sultana, Raman Sukumar, Terry Sunderland, Supriyadi, H. S. Suresh, Eizi Suzuki, Marcelo Tabarelli, Jianwei Tang, Ed V. J. Tanner, Natalia Targhetta, Ida Theilade, Duncan Thomas, Jonathan Timberlake, M?rcio de Morisson Valeriano, Johan van Valkenburg, Tran Van Do, Hoang Van Sam, John H. Vandermeer, Hans Verbeeck, Ole Reidar Vetaas, Victor Adekunle, Simone A. Vieira, Campbell O.Webb, Edward L. Webb, Timothy Whitfeld, Serge Wich, John Williams, Susan Wiser, FlorianWittmann, Xiaobo Yang, C. Yves Adou Yao, Sandra L. Yap, Rakan A. Zahawi, Rahmad Zakaria, and Runguo Zang, which was first published February 5, 2018; 10.1073/pnas.1714977115 (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 115:1837-1842). The authors note that, due to a printer's error, an author name published incorrectly. The author name Lan Qi should instead appear as Lan Qie. The online version has been corrected.

Edge Effects on the Productivity of Teak (Tectona grandis L.f.): a Case Study of Private Teak Plantations in Southern Benin. The present study aims to improve the production of teak wood (Tectona grandis L.f.) in private plantations in southern Benin through the application of a central concept in landscape ecology: the edge effect. As teak is an heliophilous species, the hypothesis of a higher wood production in edges was tested on the basis of the basal area. Sixty-two private teak plantations were investigated and 10,667 trees were measured. The stratified sampling scheme in three distinct parts for each plantation (the centre, the edge and the summits) permitted to highlight the edge effect on wood production. For each part, a plot was installed and the diameter at breast height (dbh) was measured for all trees. The leaf area between the edge and the centre of plantations was measured. Finally, the influence of the spatial configuration of plantations and the direction of each side of these plantations on the production of wood was tested. Results show that the edge effect on the production of teak wood affects four planting lines, the first presenting a production of 150% relative to the centre. We noticed a significant influence of the edge on the leaf area of about 218% relative to the centre. No influence of the direction of the sides of the plantation was observed. The shape of the plantations presents a significant influence on the wood production. These results permitted to propose a planting model included in an agroforestry system that optimizes the production of wood per area and having a succession of two planting lines interrupted by fields.

This study deals with land use and land cover changes for a 33 years period. We assessed these changes for eight land cover classes in the south of Benin by using an integrated multi-temporal analysis using three Landsat images (1972 Landsat MSS, 1986 Landsat TM and 2005 Landsat ETM+). Three scenarios for the future were simulated using a first-order Markovian model based on annual probability matrices. The contribution of tree plantations to compensate forest loss was assessed. The results show a strong loss of forest and savanna, mainly due to increased agricultural land. Natural woody vegetation ("forest", "wooded savanna" and "tree and shrub savanna") will seriously decrease by 2025 due to the expansion of agricultural activities and the increase of settlements. Tree plantations are expected to double by 2025, but they will not compensate for the loss of natural woody vegetation cover. Consequently, we assist to a continuing woody vegetation area decrease. Policies regarding reforestation and forest conservation must be initiated to reverse the currently projected tendencies.

The density of wood is a key indicator of the carbon investment strategies of trees, impacting productivity and carbon storage. Despite its importance, the global variation in wood density and its environmental controls remain poorly understood, preventing accurate predictions of global forest carbon stocks. Here we analyse information from 1.1 million forest inventory plots alongside wood density data from 10,703 tree species to create a spatially explicit understanding of the global wood density distribution and its drivers. Our findings reveal a pronounced latitudinal gradient, with wood in tropical forests being up to 30% denser than that in boreal forests. In both angiosperms and gymnosperms, hydrothermal conditions represented by annual mean temperature and soil moisture emerged as the primary factors influencing the variation in wood density globally. This indicates similar environmental filters and evolutionary adaptations among distinct plant groups, underscoring the essential role of abiotic factors in determining wood density in forest ecosystems. Additionally, our study highlights the prominent role of disturbance, such as human modification and fire risk, in influencing wood density at more local scales. Factoring in the spatial variation of wood density notably changes the estimates of forest carbon stocks, leading to differences of up to 21% within biomes. Therefore, our research contributes to a deeper understanding of terrestrial biomass distribution and how environmental changes and disturbances impact forest ecosystems., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations 1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories 7 , we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species 1,2 . Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies 3,4 . Here, leveraging global tree databases 5-7 , we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness., Competing Interests: Competing interest statement: M.L.B. is an employee of PNAS., (Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change 1 and population growth 2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.

Ecosystem monitoring is fundamental to our understanding of how ecosystem change is impacting our natural resources and is vital for developing evidence-based policy and management. However, the different types of ecosystem monitoring, along with their recommended applications, are often poorly understood and contentious. Varying definitions and strict adherence to a specific monitoring type can inhibit effective ecosystem monitoring, leading to poor program development, implementation and outcomes. In an effort to develop a more consistent and clear understanding of ecosystem monitoring programs, we here review the main types of monitoring and recommend the widespread adoption of three classifications of monitoring, namely, targeted, surveillance and landscape monitoring. Landscape monitoring is conducted over large areas, provides spatial data, and enables questions relating to where and when ecosystem change is occurring to be addressed. Surveillance monitoring uses standardised field methods to inform on what is changing in our environments and the direction and magnitude of that change, whilst targeted monitoring is designed around testable hypotheses over defined areas and is the best approach for determining the causes of ecosystem change. The classification system is flexible and can incorporate different interests, objectives, targets and characteristics as well as different spatial scales and temporal frequencies, while also providing valuable structure and consistency across distinct ecosystem monitoring programs. To support our argument, we examine the ability of each monitoring type to inform on six key types of questions that are routinely posed for ecosystem monitoring programs, such as where and when change is occurring, what is the magnitude of change, and how can the change be managed? As we demonstrate, each type of ecosystem monitoring has its own strengths and weaknesses, which should be carefully considered relative to the desired results. Using this scheme, scientists and land managers can design programs best suited to their needs. Finally, we assert that for our most serious environmental challenges, it is essential that we include information from each of these monitoring scales to inform on all facets of ecosystem change, and this is best achieved through close collaboration between the scales. With a renewed understanding of the importance of each monitoring type, along with greater commitment to monitor cooperatively, we will be well placed to address some of our greatest environmental challenges., (© 2020 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Forest biomass is key in Earth carbon cycle and climate system, and thus under intense scrutiny in the context of international climate change mitigation initiatives (e.g. REDD+). In tropical forests, the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB) remains, however, highly uncertain. There is increasing recognition that progress is strongly limited by the lack of field observations over large and remote areas. Here, we introduce the Congo basin Forests AGB (CoFor-AGB) dataset that contains AGB estimations and associated uncertainty for 59,857 1-km pixels aggregated from nearly 100,000 ha of in situ forest management inventories for the 2000 - early 2010s period in five central African countries. A comprehensive error propagation scheme suggests that the uncertainty on AGB estimations derived from c. 0.5-ha inventory plots (8.6-15.0%) is only moderately higher than the error obtained from scientific sampling plots (8.3%). CoFor-AGB provides the first large scale view of forest AGB spatial variation from field data in central Africa, the second largest continuous tropical forest domain of the world.

Climate warming is currently advancing spring leaf-out of temperate and boreal trees, enhancing net primary productivity (NPP) of forests. However, it remains unclear whether this trend will continue, preventing for accurate projections of ecosystem functioning and climate feedbacks. Several ecophysiological mechanisms have been proposed to regulate the timing of leaf emergence in response to changing environmental cues, but the relative importance of those mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use 727,401 direct phenological observations of common European forest trees to examine the dominant controls on leaf-out. Using the emerging mechanisms, we forecast future trajectories of spring arrival and evaluate the consequences for forest carbon dynamics. By representing hypothesized relationships with autumn temperature, winter chilling, and the timing of spring onset, we accurately predicted reductions in the advance of leaf-out. There was a strong consensus between our empirical model and existing process-based models, revealing that the advance in leaf-out will not exceed 2 weeks over the rest of the century. We further estimate that, under a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario, earlier spring arrival will enhance NPP of temperate and boreal forests by ~0.2 Gt per year at the end of the century. In contrast, previous estimates based on a simple degree-day model range around 0.8 Gt. As such, the expected NPP is drastically reduced in our updated model relative to previous estimates-by a total of ~25 Gt over the rest of the century. These findings reveal important environmental constraints on the productivity of broad-leaved deciduous trees and highlight that shifting spring phenology is unlikely to slow the rate of warming by offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Our study quantified the global tree restoration potential and its associated carbon storage potential under existing climate conditions. Skidmore et al dispute our findings, using as reference a yearly estimation of carbon storage that could be reached by 2050. We provide a detailed answer highlighting misunderstandings in their interpretation, notably that we did not consider any time limit for the restoration process., (Copyright © 2019, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the 'consensus gap' between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The restoration of trees remains among the most effective strategies for climate change mitigation. We mapped the global potential tree coverage to show that 4.4 billion hectares of canopy cover could exist under the current climate. Excluding existing trees and agricultural and urban areas, we found that there is room for an extra 0.9 billion hectares of canopy cover, which could store 205 gigatonnes of carbon in areas that would naturally support woodlands and forests. This highlights global tree restoration as our most effective climate change solution to date. However, climate change will alter this potential tree coverage. We estimate that if we cannot deviate from the current trajectory, the global potential canopy cover may shrink by ~223 million hectares by 2050, with the vast majority of losses occurring in the tropics. Our results highlight the opportunity of climate change mitigation through global tree restoration but also the urgent need for action., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site-to-site variation in height-diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan-tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height.Using a pan-tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in-field ground-based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally derived height-diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement.Using cross-validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate-based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand-level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over- or under-estimation bias when compared with biomass estimates using field measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height-diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size-class stratified approaches.Our results indicate that even limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height-diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample.

Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world's tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world's tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: ( i ) Indo-Pacific, ( ii ) Subtropical, ( iii ) African, ( iv ) American, and ( v ) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement: V.A.-R., K.B.-G., B.B., F.Q.B., N.F., M.K., W.F.L., S. G. Letcher, C.B.S., D.S., T. Stevart, and S. Wiser have coauthored papers with Jens-Christian Svenning in the past 48 months. A.M.L. and Jens-Christian Svenning are both affiliated with Aarhus University., (Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Griffith et al do not question the quality of our analysis, but they question our results with respect to the definition of forest we employed. In our response, we explain why the differences we report result from a difference of technique and not of definition, and how anyone can adapt-as we did-our data set to any forest definition and tree cover threshold of interest., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

National forest inventories in tropical regions are sparse and have large uncertainty in capturing the physiographical variations of forest carbon across landscapes. Here, we produce for the first time the spatial patterns of carbon stored in forests of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by using airborne LiDAR inventory of more than 432,000 ha of forests based on a designed probability sampling methodology. The LiDAR mean top canopy height measurements were trained to develop an unbiased carbon estimator by using 92 1-ha ground plots distributed across key forest types in DRC. LiDAR samples provided estimates of mean and uncertainty of aboveground carbon density at provincial scales and were combined with optical and radar satellite imagery in a machine learning algorithm to map forest height and carbon density over the entire country. By using the forest definition of DRC, we found a total of 23.3 ± 1.6 GtC carbon with a mean carbon density of 140 ± 9 MgC ha -1 in the aboveground and belowground live trees. The probability based LiDAR samples capture variations of structure and carbon across edaphic and climate conditions, and provide an alternative approach to national ground inventory for efficient and precise assessment of forest carbon resources for emission reduction (ER) programs.

Dryland biomes cover two-fifths of Earth's land surface, but their forest area is poorly known. Here, we report an estimate of global forest extent in dryland biomes, based on analyzing more than 210,000 0.5-hectare sample plots through a photo-interpretation approach using large databases of satellite imagery at (i) very high spatial resolution and (ii) very high temporal resolution, which are available through the Google Earth platform. We show that in 2015, 1327 million hectares of drylands had more than 10% tree-cover, and 1079 million hectares comprised forest. Our estimate is 40 to 47% higher than previous estimates, corresponding to 467 million hectares of forest that have never been reported before. This increases current estimates of global forest cover by at least 9%., (Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.

Background: Recent studies have shown that fragmentation is an increasing threat to global forests, which has major impacts on biodiversity and the important ecosystem services provided by forested landscapes. Several tools have been developed to evaluate global patterns of fragmentation, which have potential applications for REDD+. We study how canopy height and above ground biomass (AGB) change across several categories of forest edges determined by fragmentation analysis. We use Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as an example., Results: An analysis of variance of different edge widths and airborne estimated canopy height found that canopy heights were significantly different in forest edges at a distance of 100 m from the nonforest edge. Biomass was significantly different between fragmentation classes at an edge distance of 300 m. Core forest types were found to have significantly higher canopy height and greater AGB than forest edges and patches, where height and biomass decrease significantly as the level of fragmentation increases. A change analysis shows that deforestation and degradation are increasing over time and biomass loss associated with degradation account for at least one quarter of total loss. We estimate that about 80 % of primary forests are intact, which decreases 3.5 % over the 15 year study period, as primary forest is either deforested or transitioned to forest edge. While the carbon loss per hectare is lower than that of deforestation, degradation potentially affects up to three times more area than deforestation alone., Conclusions: When defining forest degradation by decreased biomass without any loss in forest area, assessing transitions of core forest to edges over time can contribute an important element to REDD+MRV systems. The estimation of changes between different forest fragmentation types and their associated biomass loss can provide an estimate of degradation carbon emission factors. Forest degradation and emissions due to fragmentation are often underestimated and should comprise an essential component of MRV systems.

Context: Wood specific gravity is a key element in tropical forest ecology. It integrates many aspects of tree mechanical properties and functioning and is an important predictor of tree biomass. Wood specific gravity varies widely among and within species and also within individual trees. Notably, contrasted patterns of radial variation of wood specific gravity have been demonstrated and related to regeneration guilds (light demanding vs. shade-bearing). However, although being repeatedly invoked as a potential source of error when estimating the biomass of trees, both intraspecific and radial variations remain little studied. In this study we characterized detailed pith-to-bark wood specific gravity profiles among contrasted species prominently contributing to the biomass of the forest, i.e., the dominant species, and we quantified the consequences of such variations on the biomass., Methods: Radial profiles of wood density at 8% moisture content were compiled for 14 dominant species in the Democratic Republic of Congo, adapting a unique 3D X-ray scanning technique at very high spatial resolution on core samples. Mean wood density estimates were validated by water displacement measurements. Wood density profiles were converted to wood specific gravity and linear mixed models were used to decompose the radial variance. Potential errors in biomass estimation were assessed by comparing the biomass estimated from the wood specific gravity measured from pith-to-bark profiles, from global repositories, and from partial information (outer wood or inner wood)., Results: Wood specific gravity profiles from pith-to-bark presented positive, neutral and negative trends. Positive trends mainly characterized light-demanding species, increasing up to 1.8 g.cm-3 per meter for Piptadeniastrum africanum, and negative trends characterized shade-bearing species, decreasing up to 1 g.cm-3 per meter for Strombosia pustulata. The linear mixed model showed the greater part of wood specific gravity variance was explained by species only (45%) followed by a redundant part between species and regeneration guilds (36%). Despite substantial variation in wood specific gravity profiles among species and regeneration guilds, we found that values from the outer wood were strongly correlated to values from the whole profile, without any significant bias. In addition, we found that wood specific gravity from the DRYAD global repository may strongly differ depending on the species (up to 40% for Dialium pachyphyllum)., Main Conclusion: Therefore, when estimating forest biomass in specific sites, we recommend the systematic collection of outer wood samples on dominant species. This should prevent the main errors in biomass estimations resulting from wood specific gravity and allow for the collection of new information to explore the intraspecific variation of mechanical properties of trees.

Primates along with many other animal taxa are forced to cope with large shifts in basic ecological conditions because of rapid anthropogenically induced changes of their habitats. One of the coping strategies for primates is to adjust their diet to these changes, and several studies have demonstrated the importance of fallback resources for this. Bonobos, like chimpanzees, might be particularly vulnerable to habitat fragmentation because of their high dependence on fruit availability. Little is known, however, about bonobo feeding ecology in fragmented habitats and their use of fallback resources. In this study, we investigate diet seasonal variation and the exploitation of preferred and fallback foods in a bonobo population living in forest-savannah mosaics. Results show that bonobos have adapted to this fragmented habitat by feeding on only a few fruit species, including an important number of non-tree species (liana, herb and savannah shrub), in comparison to populations living in dense forests. These non-tree plants have been defined as fallback and non-preferred foods, which are most probably consumed to maintain high frugivory. Interestingly, we identified that preferred foods are all typical of mature forests while fallback resources are mainly found in forest edges or disturbed areas. This finding indicates that bonobos prefer to use mature forests when feeding, as they do for nesting, but extend their range use to forest areas in close proximity to humans when the availability of preferred fruits is low. Finally, we show that bonobo diet relies heavily on two abundant fallback fruits: Musanga cecropioides and Marantochloa leucantha. Other studies have demonstrated that the selection of abundant fallback resources enables primates to subsist at high densities and to maintain cohesive groups, as observed at this study site. Our findings suggest that bonobos living in forest-savannah mosaics can be considered as staple fallback food consumers. Am. J. Primatol. 77:948-962, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., (© 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Large tropical trees and a few dominant species were recently identified as the main structuring elements of tropical forests. However, such result did not translate yet into quantitative approaches which are essential to understand, predict and monitor forest functions and composition over large, often poorly accessible territories. Here we show that the above-ground biomass (AGB) of the whole forest can be predicted from a few large trees and that the relationship is proved strikingly stable in 175 1-ha plots investigated across 8 sites spanning Central Africa. We designed a generic model predicting AGB with an error of 14% when based on only 5% of the stems, which points to universality in forest structural properties. For the first time in Africa, we identified some dominant species that disproportionally contribute to forest AGB with 1.5% of recorded species accounting for over 50% of the stock of AGB. Consequently, focusing on large trees and dominant species provides precise information on the whole forest stand. This offers new perspectives for understanding the functioning of tropical forests and opens new doors for the development of innovative monitoring strategies.

A topic of major interest in socio-ecology is the comparison of chimpanzees and bonobos' grouping patterns. Numerous studies have highlighted the impact of social and environmental factors on the different evolution in group cohesion seen in these sister species. We are still lacking, however, key information about bonobo social traits across their habitat range, in order to make accurate inter-species comparisons. In this study we investigated bonobo social cohesiveness at nesting sites depending on fruit availability in the forest-savannah mosaic of western Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a bonobo habitat which has received little attention from researchers and is characterized by high food resource variation within years. We collected data on two bonobo communities. Nest counts at nesting sites were used as a proxy for night grouping patterns and were analysed with regard to fruit availability. We also modelled bonobo population density at the site in order to investigate yearly variation. We found that one community density varied across the three years of surveys, suggesting that this bonobo community has significant variability in use of its home range. This finding highlights the importance of forest connectivity, a likely prerequisite for the ability of bonobos to adapt their ranging patterns to fruit availability changes. We found no influence of overall fruit availability on bonobo cohesiveness. Only fruit availability at the nesting sites showed a positive influence, indicating that bonobos favour food 'hot spots' as sleeping sites. Our findings have confirmed the results obtained from previous studies carried out in the dense tropical forests of DRC. Nevertheless, in order to clarify the impact of environmental variability on bonobo social cohesiveness, we will need to make direct observations of the apes in the forest-savannah mosaic as well as make comparisons across the entirety of the bonobos' range using systematic methodology.

In the context of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation (the REDD+ program), optical very high resolution (VHR) satellite images provide an opportunity to characterize forest canopy structure and to quantify aboveground biomass (AGB) at less expense than methods based on airborne remote sensing data. Among the methods for processing these VHR images, Fourier textural ordination (FOTO) presents a good method to detect forest canopy structural heterogeneity and therefore to predict AGB variations. Notably, the method does not saturate at intermediate AGB values as do pixelwise processing of available space borne optical and radar signals. However, a regional-scale application requires overcoming two difficulties: (1) instrumental effects due to variations in sun–scene–sensor geometry or sensor-specific responses that preclude the use of wide arrays of images acquired under heterogeneous conditions and (2) forest structural diversity including monodominant or open canopy forests, which are of particular importance in Central Africa. In this study, we demonstrate the feasibility of a rigorous regional study of canopy texture by harmonizing FOTO indices of images acquired from two different sensors (Geoeye-1 and QuickBird-2) and different sun–scene–sensor geometries and by calibrating a piecewise biomass inversion model using 26 inventory plots (1 ha) sampled across very heterogeneous forest types. A good agreement was found between observed and predicted AGB (residual standard error [RSE] = 15%; R2 = 0.85; P < 0.001) across a wide range of AGB levels from 26 Mg/ha to 460 Mg/ha, and was confirmed by cross validation. A high-resolution biomass map (100-m pixels) was produced for a 400-km2 area, and predictions obtained from both imagery sources were consistent with each other (r = 0.86; slope = 1.03; intercept = 12.01 Mg/ha). These results highlight the horizontal structure of forest canopy as a powerful descriptor of the entire forest stand structure and heterogeneity. In particular, we show that quantitative metrics resulting from such textural analysis offer new opportunities to characterize the spatial and temporal variation of the structure of dense forests and may complement the toolbox used by tropical forest ecologists, managers or REDD+ national monitoring, reporting and verification bodies.

We report above-ground biomass (AGB), basal area, stem density and wood mass density estimates from 260 sample plots (mean size: 1.2 ha) in intact closed-canopy tropical forests across 12 African countries. Mean AGB is 395.7 Mg dry mass ha⁻¹ (95% CI: 14.3), substantially higher than Amazonian values, with the Congo Basin and contiguous forest region attaining AGB values (429 Mg ha⁻¹) similar to those of Bornean forests, and significantly greater than East or West African forests. AGB therefore appears generally higher in palaeo- compared with neotropical forests. However, mean stem density is low (426 ± 11 stems ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 100 mm diameter) compared with both Amazonian and Bornean forests (cf. approx. 600) and is the signature structural feature of African tropical forests. While spatial autocorrelation complicates analyses, AGB shows a positive relationship with rainfall in the driest nine months of the year, and an opposite association with the wettest three months of the year; a negative relationship with temperature; positive relationship with clay-rich soils; and negative relationships with C : N ratio (suggesting a positive soil phosphorus-AGB relationship), and soil fertility computed as the sum of base cations. The results indicate that AGB is mediated by both climate and soils, and suggest that the AGB of African closed-canopy tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to future precipitation and temperature changes.