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Aim: Many tree species may be threatened with declines in range and biomass, or even extinction, if they cannot disperse or adapt quickly enough to keep pace with climate change. One potential, and potentially risky, strategy to mitigate this threat is assisted migration (AM), the intentional movement of species to facilitate population range shifts to more climatically suitable locations under climate change. The ability for AM to minimise risk and maximise conservation and forestry outcomes depends on a multi-faceted decision process for determining, what, where and how much to move. We provide an assessment on how the benefits and risks of AM could affect the decision-making process. Location: Mountainous coastal western United States. Taxon: Trees. Methods: We used a dynamic vegetation model parameterised with 23 tree species. Results: We found that most of the modelled species are likely to experience a substantial decline in biomass, with many potentially facing regional extinction by 2100 under the high-emission SSP5-85 climate-change scenario. Though simulations show AM had little effect on the forestry goal of total biomass across all species, its effects on the conservation goal of promoting individual species' persistence were far more substantial. Among eight AM strategies (differing in the life cycle stage of movement and target destination selection criteria), the approach that conserved the highest biomass for individual species involved relocating target seedlings to areas that recently experienced fire. Although this strategy significantly reduced extinction risk for six at-risk species compared with no action, it also slightly reduced biomass of four species, due to increasing competition. Species with relatively weak tolerance to drought, fire or high temperature were the most likely candidate groups for AM. Main Conclusions: Our simulations indicate that AM can aid conservation by reducing extinction risks for species vulnerable to climate change, but it has limited impact on forestry-specific goals, affecting overall biomass minimally. This model framework could be applied to other forest ecosystems to evaluate the efficacy of AM globally.

Climate change is dramatically altering the environmental context in which marine resources are harvested and managed. A growing field of academic literature has begun to explore the adaptive capacity of fishers and managers to respond to this change, but much of this field is abstract and theory-driven. Therefore, it is unclear whether this literature accurately reflects the adaptation priorities of fishery management practitioners, or whether there are gaps in the literature that these practitioners could fill with on-the-ground knowledge. Second, even if these principles of adaptive capacity are perfectly aligned with management practitioners’ priorities, it is unclear to what extent these principles are actively considered in the decision making process, and if not, why. This study seeks to address these questions by confronting fisheries professionals with academic ideas around adaptive capacity through a series of semi-structured interviews with federal fishery managers and scientists whose work informs decision making in the United States regional fishery management system. The study then uses these interviews to identify three low-cost, high-impact action items that could make concepts from the academic literature more accessible and useful to these practitioners and expand the literature by incorporating practitioners’ expertise. These action items are: 1) distinguish adaptive capacity from adaptive management, 2) use practitioner insights to contextualize the elements of adaptive capacity within the constraints and opportunities of governance systems, and 3) expand academic research to explicitly consider the capacity to adapt on appropriate timelines given the scale and pace of systemic change.

While conservation fish hatchery programs can be a valuable tool providing demographic support, they can also cause domestication, risking unintended fitness consequences to both target and connected populations. When conservation hatcheries are used over a fixed amount of time, the interaction between program duration and species life history might determine the scale of fitness effects and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. We develop a mathematical model to quantify the effectiveness of approaches to mitigate unintended fitness consequences in such temporary conservation hatchery programs. We parameterize our model to represent a conservation aquaculture-based recovery program for white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontatus) in the Nechako River (British Columbia), which might impose genetic risks on the adjacent populations within the Fraser River. We find that, over a period spanning 50-200 years of hatchery operation, the life history characteristics of white sturgeon, particularly late age of maturity and longevity, reduce the genetic risks of conservation hatcheries when compared to shorter-lived species. The genetic impacts of the hatchery accumulate slowly providing increasing the potential for adaptive management in this system.

Dispersal of reproductive propagules determines recruitment patterns and connectivity among populations and can influence how populations respond to major disturbance events. Dispersal distributions can depend on propagule release strategies. For instance, the bull kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana, can release propagules (spores) from two heights in the water column ("bimodal release"): at the water surface, directly from the reproductive tissues (sori) on the kelp's blades, and near the seafloor after the sori abscise and sink through the water column. N. luetkeana is a foundation species that occurs from central California to Alaska and is experiencing unprecedented levels of population declines near its southern range limit. We know little of the kelp's dispersal distributions, which could influence population recovery and restoration. Here, we quantify how bimodal spore release heights affect dispersal outcomes based on a numerical model specifically designed for N. luetkeana. The model incorporates oceanographic conditions typical of the species' coastal range and kelp biological traits. With bimodal release heights, 34% of spores are predicted to settle within 10 m of the parental alga and 60% are predicted to disperse beyond 100 m. As an annual species, bimodal release heights can facilitate the local regeneration of adults within a source kelp forest while also supporting connectivity among multiple forests within broader bull kelp metapopulations. To leverage this pattern of bimodal spore dispersal in bull kelp restoration management, directing resources toward strategically located focal populations that can seed other ones could amplify the scale of recovery.

Integrodifference equations are a discrete-time spatially explicit model that describes the dispersal of ecological populations through space. This framework is useful to study spread dynamics of organisms and how ecological interactions can affect their spread. When studying interactions such as consumption, dispersal rates might vary with life cycle stage, such as in cases with dispersive juveniles and sessile adults. In the non-dispersive stage, resources may engage in group defense to protect themselves from consumption. These local nondispersive interactions may limit the number of dispersing recruits that are produced and therefore affect how fast populations can spread. We present a spatial consumer-resource system using an integrodifference framework with limited movement of their adult stages and group defense mechanisms in the resource population. We model group defense using a Type IV Holling functional response, which limits the survival of adult resource population and enhances juvenile consumer production. We find that high mortality levels for sessile adults can destabilize resource at carrying capacity. Furthermore, we find that at high resource densities, group defense leads to a slower local growth of resource in newly invaded regions due to intraspecific competition outweighing the effect of consumption on resource growth.

Ivermectin (IVM)-treated birds provide the potential for targeted control of Culex mosquitoes to reduce West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Ingestion of IVM increases mosquito mortality, which could reduce WNV transmission from birds to humans and in enzootic maintenance cycles affecting predominantly bird-feeding mosquitoes and from birds to humans. This strategy might also provide an alternative method for WNV control that is less hampered by insecticide resistance and the logistics of large-scale pesticide applications. Through a combination of field studies and modeling, we assessed the feasibility and impact of deploying IVM-treated birdfeed in residential neighborhoods to reduce WNV transmission. We first tracked 105 birds using radio telemetry and radio frequency identification to monitor their feeder usage and locations of nocturnal roosts in relation to five feeder sites in a neighborhood in Fort Collins, Colorado. Using these results, we then modified a compartmental model of WNV transmission to account for the impact of IVM on mosquito mortality and spatial movement of birds and mosquitoes on the neighborhood level. We found that, while the number of treated lots in a neighborhood strongly influenced the total transmission potential, the arrangement of treated lots in a neighborhood had little effect. Increasing the proportion of treated birds, regardless of the WNV competency status, resulted in a larger reduction in infection dynamics than only treating competent birds. Taken together, model results indicate that deployment of IVM-treated feeders could reduce local transmission throughout the WNV season, including reducing the enzootic transmission prior to the onset of human infections, with high spatial coverage and rates of IVM-induced mortality in mosquitoes. To improve predictions, more work is needed to refine estimates of daily mosquito movement in urban areas and rates of IVM-induced mortality. Our results can guide future field trials of this control strategy.

Abstract: Fisheries face unprecedented environmental change. An important aspect of resilience to this change is the adaptive capacity of managers and stakeholders to respond to new conditions. A growing academic literature has demonstrated the value of fostering this adaptive capacity and highlighted key elements of fisheries social-ecological systems that can promote it. However, it is unclear to what extent these abstract academic ideas around adaptive capacity are relevant and valuable to on-the-ground resource managers, and if so, whether there are aspects of the literature that particularly resonate with their needs. Here, we compare academic concepts of adaptive capacity to the ways that management practitioners conceptualize and implement these ideas in practice, elicited through interviews with key professionals in United States federal fishery management bodies. Practitioners overwhelmingly cited flexibility to respond to change as the most consistently important element of adaptive capacity. Yet, they also detailed how the U.S. fishery management system routinely limits and constrains the flexibility of managers and stakeholders. Seeking out opportunities that enhance flexibility without jeopardizing other key aspects of adaptive capacity could increase management’s adaptive capacity to global change in the USA and elsewhere.

During recent years, the study of long transients has been expanded in ecological theory to account for shifts in long-term behavior of ecological systems. These long transients may lead to regime shifts between alternative states that resemble the dynamics of alternative stable states for a prolonged period of time. One dynamic that potentially leads to long transients is the group defense of a resource in a consumer-resource interaction. Furthermore, time lags in the population caused by discrete reproductive pulses have the potential to produce long transients, either independently or in conjunction to the transients caused by the group defense. In this work, we analyze the potential for long transients in a model for a consumer-resource system in which the resource exhibits group defense and reproduces in discrete reproductive pulses. This system exhibits crawl-by transients near the extinction and carrying capacity states of resource, and a transcritical bifurcation, under which a ghost limit cycle appears. We estimate the transient time of our system from these transients using perturbation theory. This work advances an understanding of how systems shift between alternate states and their duration of staying in a given regime and what ecological dynamics may lead to long transients.

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

Assisted migration (AM) is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population may fail to establish in its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision-making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of AM under different management scenarios (e.g., choosing target species, proportion of population to relocate, and optimal location to relocate), we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without AM, the species were vulnerable to climate change when they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleward competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, AM increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat AM in case they move the species to the wrong place and at the wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species' optimal climate. We found that AM most benefitted species with low dispersal ability and least benefited species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which AM increased extinction risk on average. Although relocation did not affect the persistence of nontarget species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are increasingly established globally as a spatial management tool to aid in conservation and fisheries management objectives. Assessing whether MPAs are having the desired effects on populations requires effective monitoring programs. A cornerstone of an effective monitoring program is an assessment of the statistical power of sampling designs to detect changes when they occur. We present a novel approach to power assessment that combines spatial point process models, integral projection models (IPMs) and sampling simulations to assess the power of different sample designs across a network of MPAs. We focus on the use of remotely operated vehicle (ROV) video cameras as the sampling method, though the results could be extended to other sampling methods. We use empirical data from baseline surveys of an example indicator fish species across three MPAs in California, USA as a case study. Spatial models simulated time series of spatial distributions across sites that accounted for the effects of environmental covariates, while IPMs simulated expected trends over time in abundances and sizes of fish. We tested the power of different levels of sampling effort (i.e., the number of 500-m ROV transects) and temporal replication (every 1-3 yr) to detect expected post-MPA changes in fish abundance and biomass. We found that changes in biomass are detectable earlier than changes in abundance. We also found that detectability of MPA effects was higher in sites with higher initial densities. Increasing the sampling effort had a greater effect than increasing sampling frequency on the time taken to achieve high power. High power was best achieved by combining data from multiple sites. Our approach provides a powerful tool to explore the interaction between sampling effort, spatial distributions, population dynamics, and metrics for detecting change in previously fished populations.

Anthropogenic environmental change is altering the behavior of animals in ecosystems around the world. Although behavior typically occurs on much faster timescales than demography, it can nevertheless influence demographic processes. Here, we use detailed data on behavior and empirical estimates of demography from a coral reef ecosystem to develop a coupled behavioral-demographic ecosystem model. Analysis of the model reveals that behavior and demography feed back on one another to determine how the ecosystem responds to anthropogenic forcing. In particular, an empirically observed feedback between the density and foraging behavior of herbivorous fish leads to alternative stable ecosystem states of coral population persistence or collapse (and complete algal dominance). This feedback makes the ecosystem more prone to coral collapse under fishing pressure but also more prone to recovery as fishing is reduced. Moreover, because of the behavioral feedback, the response of the ecosystem to changes in fishing pressure depends not only on the magnitude of changes in fishing but also on the pace at which changes are imposed. For example, quickly increasing fishing to a given level can collapse an ecosystem that would persist under more gradual change. Our results reveal conditions under which the pace and not just the magnitude of external forcing can dictate the response of ecosystems to environmental change. More generally, our multiscale behavioral-demographic framework demonstrates how high-resolution behavioral data can be incorporated into ecological models to better understand how ecosystems will respond to perturbations.

Strategies for increasing production of goods from working and natural systems have raised concerns that the diversity of species on which these services depend may be eroding. This loss of natural capital threatens to homogenize global food supplies and compromise the stability of human welfare. We assess the trade off between artificial augmentation of biomass and degradation of biodiversity underlying a populations' ability to adapt to shocks. Our application involves the augmentation of wild stocks of salmon. Practices in this system have generated warnings that genetic erosion may lead to a loss of the “portfolio effect” and the value of this loss is not accounted for in decision making. We construct an integrated bioeconomic model of salmon biomass and genetic diversity. Our results show how practices that homogenize natural systems can still generate positive returns. However, the substitution of more physical capital and labor for natural capital must be maintained for gains to persist, weakens the capacity for adaptation should this investment cease, and can cause substantial loss of population wildness. We apply an emerging optimization method—approximate dynamic programming—to solve the model without simplifying restrictions imposed previously.

Disturbance plays a key role in structuring community dynamics and is central to conservation and natural resource management. However, ecologists continue to debate the importance of disturbance for species coexistence and biodiversity. Such disagreements may arise in part because few studies have examined variation across multiple dimensions of disturbance (e.g., size, frequency) and how the effects of disturbance may depend on species attributes (e.g., competitiveness, dispersal ability). In light of this gap in understanding and accelerating changes to disturbance regimes worldwide, we used spatial population models to explore how disturbance size and frequency interact with species attributes to affect coexistence between seagrass (Zostera marina) and colonial burrowing shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis) that compete for benthic space in estuaries throughout the west coast of North America. By simulating population dynamics under a range of ecologically relevant disturbance regimes, we discovered that intermediate disturbance (approximately 9-23% of landscape area per year) to short-dispersing, competitively dominant seagrass can foster long-term stable coexistence with broad-dispersing, competitively inferior burrowing shrimp via the spatial storage effect. When holding the total extent of disturbance constant, the individual size and annual frequency of disturbance altered landscape spatial patterns and mediated the dominance and evenness of competitors. Many small disturbances favored short-dispersing seagrass by hastening recolonization, whereas fewer large disturbances benefited rapidly colonizing burrowing shrimp by creating temporary refugia from competition. As a result, large, infrequent disturbances generally improved the strength and stability of coexistence relative to small, frequent disturbances. Regardless of disturbance size or frequency, the dispersal ability of the superior competitor (seagrass), the competitive ability of the inferior competitor (burrowing shrimp), and the reproduction and survival of both species strongly influenced population abundances and coexistence. Our results show that disturbance size and frequency can promote or constrain coexistence by altering the duration of time over which inferior competitors can escape competitive exclusion, particularly when colonization depends on the spatial pattern of disturbance due to dispersal traits. For coastal managers and conservation practitioners, our findings indicate that reducing particularly large disturbances may help conserve globally imperiled seagrass meadows and control burrowing shrimp colonies that can threaten the viability of oyster aquaculture.

Body size is a trait that broadly influences the demography and ecology of organisms. In unitary organisms, body size tends to increase with age. In modular organisms, body size can either increase or decrease with age, with size changes being the net difference between modules added through growth and modules lost through partial mortality. Rates of colony extension are independent of body size, but net growth is allometric, suggesting a significant role of size-dependent mortality. In this study, we develop a generalizable model of partitioned growth and partial mortality and apply it to data from 11 species of reef-building coral. We show that corals generally grow at constant radial increments that are size independent, and that partial mortality acts more strongly on small colonies. We also show a clear life-history trade-off between growth and partial mortality that is governed by growth form. This decomposition of net growth can provide mechanistic insights into the relative demographic effects of the intrinsic factors (e.g. acquisition of food and life-history strategy), which tend to affect growth, and extrinsic factors (e.g. physical damage, and predation), which tend to affect mortality.

Domesticated individuals are likely to be maladaptive in the wild due to adaptation to captivity. Escaped aquaculture fish can cause unintended fitness and demographic consequences for their wild conspecifics through interbreeding and competition. Escape events from different sources exhibit great heterogeneity in their frequencies and magnitudes, ranging from rare but large spillover during a storm, to continuous low-level leakage caused by operational errors. The timescale of escape events determines the distribution of gene flow from aquaculture to the wild. The evolutionary consequences of this variation in timescale will depend on the degree of generation overlap and the focal species' life history attributes, especially those under selection in aquaculture (e.g., growth rate, which can influence additional demographically important traits such as age at maturity). To evaluate the effects of variable escape both within and across generations, we construct an age-structured model of coupled genetic and demographic dynamics and parameterize it for species with contrasting life history characteristics (Salmo salar and Gadus morhua). Our results are consistent with earlier discrete-generation models that constant, low-level spillover can have a greater impact than rare, large pulses of leakage, even after accounting for the averaging effects of overlapping generations. The age-structured model also allows detailed evaluation of the role of different life history traits, which reveals that species with longer generation times might experience greater fitness consequences of aquaculture spillover but are less sensitive to variability in spillover. Additionally, environment-induced earlier maturity of escapees can increase the fitness effects on wild fish, especially those with shorter generation times. Our results suggest that effective management to minimize the unintended fitness consequences of aquaculture releases might require extensive monitoring efforts on constant, low-level spillover and assessment of the focal species' life history characteristics.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are being implemented worldwide, yet there are few cases where managers make specific predictions of the response of previously harvested populations to MPA implementation. Such predictions are needed to evaluate whether MPAs are working as expected, and if not, why. This evaluation is necessary to perform adaptive management, identifying whether and when adjustments to management might be necessary to achieve MPA goals. Using monitoring data and population models, we quantified expected responses of targeted species to MPA implementation and compared them to monitoring data. The model required two factors to explain observed responses in MPAs: (a) pre‐MPA harvest rates, which can vary at local spatial scales, and (b) recruitment variability before and after MPA establishment. Low recruitment years before MPA establishment in our study system drove deviations from expected equilibrium population size distributions and introduced an additional time lag to response detectability. Synthesis and applications. We combined monitoring data and population models to show how (a) harvest rates prior to Marine Protected Area (MPA) implementation, (b) variability in recruitment, and (c) initial population size structure determine whether a response to MPA establishment is detectable. Pre‐MPA harvest rates across MPAs plays a large role in MPA response detectability, demonstrating the importance of measuring this poorly known parameter. While an intuitive expectation is for response detectability to depend on recruitment variability and stochasticity in population trajectories after MPA establishment, we address the overlooked role of recruitment variability before MPA establishment, which alters the size structure at the time of MPA establishment. These factors provide MPA practitioners with reasons whether or not MPAs may lead to responses of targeted species. Our overall approach provides a framework for a critical step of adaptive management.

Many of the world's most prevalent diseases are transmitted by animal vectors such as dengue transmitted by mosquitoes. To reduce these vector-borne diseases, a promising approach is "genetic shifting": selective breeding of the vectors to be more resistant to pathogens and releasing them to the target populations to reduce their ability to transmit pathogens, that is, lower their vector competence. The efficacy of genetic shifting will depend on possible counterforces such as natural selection against low vector competence. To quantitatively evaluate the potential efficacy of genetic shifting, we developed a series of coupled genetic-demographic models that simulate the changes of vector competence during releases of individuals with low vector competence. We modeled vector competence using different genetic architectures, as a multilocus, one-locus, or two-locus trait. Using empirically determined estimates of model parameters, the model predicted a reduction of mean vector competence of at least three standard deviations after 20 releases, one release per generation, and 10% of the size of the target population released each time. Sensitivity analysis suggested that release efficacy depends mostly on the vector competence of the released population, release size, release frequency, and the survivorship of the released individuals, with duration of the release program less important. Natural processes such as density-dependent survival and immigration from external populations also strongly influence release efficacy. Among different sex-dependent release strategies, releasing blood-fed females together with males resulted in the highest release efficacy, as these females mate in captivity and reproduce when released, thus contributing a greater proportion of low-vector-competence offspring. Conclusions were generally consistent across three models assuming different genetic architectures of vector competence, suggesting that genetic shifting could generally apply to various vector systems and does not require detailed knowledge of the number of loci contributing to vector competence.

Adaptive management of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires developing methods to evaluate whether monitoring data indicate that they are performing as expected. Modeling the expected responses of targeted species to an MPA network, with a clear timeline for those expectations, can aid in the development of a monitoring program that efficiently evaluates expectations over appropriate time frames. Here, we describe the expected trajectories in abundance and biomass following MPA implementation for populations of 19 nearshore fishery species in California. To capture the process of filling in the age structure truncated by fishing, we used age-structured population models with stochastic larval recruitment to predict responses to MPA implementation. We implemented both demographically open (high larval immigration) and closed (high self-recruitment) populations to model the range of possible trajectories as they depend on recruitment dynamics. From these simulations, we quantified the time scales over which anticipated increases in abundance and biomass inside MPAs would become statistically detectable. Predicted population biomass responses range from little change, for species with low fishing rates, to increasing by a factor of nearly seven, for species with high fishing rates before MPA establishment. Increases in biomass following MPA implementation are usually greater in both magnitude and statistical detectability than increases in abundance. For most species, increases in abundance would not begin to become detectable for at least 10 years after implementation. Overall, these results inform potential indicator metrics (biomass), potential indicator species (those with a high fishing : natural mortality ratio), and time frame (>10 yr) for MPA monitoring assessment as part of the adaptive management process.

Fishing catch is often used as a cost in marine conservation planning to avoid areas of high fishing activity when identifying potential marine reserve locations. However, the theory of marine reserves indicates that reserves are more likely to benefit fisheries in areas of heavy fishing activity that would otherwise be overfished. Whether or not fishing catch is calculated as a cost depends on the balance of conservation and fisheries goals for a reserve, and thus is critical for policymakers to consider when designing marine reserve networks. This research shows the utility of running an inverted cost model of fishery catches during marine reserve spatial prioritization as a first step in a marine planning process oriented towards stabilizing local fisheries. This technique serves as a heuristic tool that may help conservation planners explore regions that would otherwise be overlooked if fisheries data were absent or integrated purely as a cost in the planning process. Drawing on data from Madagascar to illustrate our approach, this research demonstrates that the regions most frequently selected using the inverted cost model not only meet conservation targets, but are also those most accessible to community-based resource managers, the dominant management paradigm in Madagascar as well as in many developing countries.

Human‐caused global change produces biotic and abiotic conditions that increase the uncertainty and risk of failure of restoration efforts. A focus of managing for resiliency, that is, the ability of the system to respond to disturbance, has the potential to reduce this uncertainty and risk. However, identifying what drives resiliency might depend on how one measures it. An example of a system where identifying how the drivers of different aspects of resiliency can inform restoration under climate change is the northern coast of California, where kelp experienced a decline in coverage of over 95% due to the combination of an intense marine heat wave and the functional extinction of the primary predator of the kelp‐grazing purple sea urchin, the sunflower sea star. Although restoration efforts focused on urchin removal and kelp reintroduction in this system are ongoing, the question of how to increase the resiliency of this system to future marine heat waves remains open. In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that describes a tritrophic food chain of kelp, purple urchins, and a purple urchin predator such as the sunflower sea star. We run a global sensitivity analysis of three different resiliency metrics (recovery likelihood, recovery rate, and resistance to disturbance) of the kelp forest to identify their ecological drivers. We find that each metric depends the most on a unique set of drivers: Recovery likelihood depends the most on live and drift kelp production, recovery rate depends the most on urchin production and feedbacks that determine urchin grazing on live kelp, and resistance depends the most on feedbacks that determine predator consumption of urchins. Therefore, an understanding of the potential role of predator reintroduction or recovery in kelp systems relies on a comprehensive approach to measuring resiliency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Connectivity among populations can have counteracting effects on population stability. Demographically, connectivity can rescue local populations but increase the synchrony across populations. Genetically, connectivity can counteract drift locally but homogenize genotypes across populations. Population independence and diversity underlies system-level buffering against environmental variability, termed the portfolio effect. The portfolio effect has declined in California fall-run Chinook salmon, possibly in part because of the trucking of juvenile hatchery-reared fish for downstream release, which reduces juvenile mortality but increases the connectivity between rivers. We use a dynamical population model to test whether this increased connectivity can explain the loss of the portfolio effect and quantify the relative demographic and genetic contributions to portfolio effect erosion. In the model, populations experience different within-population environmental conditions and the same time-variable ocean conditions, the response to which can depend on a quantitative genetic trait. We find that increased trucking for one population's hatchery can lead to a loss of the portfolio effect, with a system-level trade-off between increased average abundance and increased variability in abundance. This trade-off is much stronger when we include the effects of genetic homogenization than when we consider demographic synchronization alone. Therefore, genetic homogenization can outweigh demographic synchrony in determining the system-level effect of connectivity.

When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities.

Ecosystem approaches to natural resource management are seen as a way to provide better outcomes for ecosystems and for people, yet the nature and strength of interactions among ecosystem components is usually unknown. Here we characterize the economic benefits of ecological knowledge through a simple model of fisheries that target a predator (piscivore) and its prey. We solve for the management (harvest) trajectory that maximizes net present value (NPV) for different ecological interactions and initial conditions that represent different levels of exploitation history. Optimal management trajectories generally approached similar harvest levels, but the pathways toward those levels varied considerably by ecological scenario. Application of the wrong harvest trajectory, which would happen if one type of ecological interaction were assumed but in fact another were occurring, generally led to only modest reductions in NPV. However, the risks were not equal across fleets: risks of incurring large losses of NPV and missing management targets were much higher in the fishery targeting piscivores, especially when piscivores were heavily depleted. Our findings suggest that the ecosystem approach might provide the greatest benefits when used to identify system states where management performs poorly with imperfect knowledge of system linkages so that management strategies can be adopted to avoid those states.

A major goal of ecosystem-based fisheries management is to prevent fishery-induced shifts in community states. This requires an understanding of ecological resilience: the ability of an ecosystem to return to the same state following a perturbation, which can strongly depend on species interactions across trophic levels. We use a structured model of a temperate rocky reef to explore how multi-trophic level fisheries impact ecological resilience. Increasing fishing mortality of prey (urchins) has a minor effect on equilibrium biomass of kelp, urchins, and spiny lobster predators, but increases resilience by reducing the range of predator harvest rates at which alternative stable states are possible. Size-structured predation on urchins acts as the feedback maintaining each state. Our results demonstrate that the resilience of ecosystems strongly depends on the interactive effects of predator and prey harvest in multi-trophic level fisheries, which are common in marine ecosystems but are unaccounted for by traditional management.

Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. We present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using nine years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus, and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets.

Recent syntheses on the evolutionary causes of dispersal have focused on dispersal as a direct adaptation, but many traits that influence dispersal have other functions, raising the question: when is dispersal 'for' dispersal? We review and critically evaluate the ecological causes of selection on traits that give rise to dispersal in marine and terrestrial organisms. In the sea, passive dispersal is relatively easy and specific morphological, behavioural, and physiological adaptations for dispersal are rare. Instead, there may often be selection to limit dispersal. On land, dispersal is relatively difficult without specific adaptations, which are relatively common. Although selection for dispersal is expected in both systems and traits leading to dispersal are often linked to fitness, systems may differ in the extent to which dispersal in nature arises from direct selection for dispersal or as a by-product of selection on traits with other functions. Our analysis highlights incompleteness of theories that assume a simple and direct relationship between dispersal and fitness, not just insofar as they ignore a vast array of taxa in the marine realm, but also because they may be missing critically important effects of traits influencing dispersal in all realms.

For any spatially explicit management, determining the appropriate spatial scale of management decisions is critical to success at achieving a given management goal. Specifically, managers must decide how much to subdivide a given managed region: from implementing a uniform approach across the region to considering a unique approach in each of one hundred patches and everything in between. Spatially explicit approaches, such as the implementation of marine spatial planning and marine reserves, are increasingly used in fishery management. Using a spatially explicit bioeconomic model, we quantify how the management scale affects optimal fishery profit, biomass, fishery effort, and the fraction of habitat in marine reserves. We find that, if habitats are randomly distributed, the fishery profit increases almost linearly with the number of segments. However, if habitats are positively autocorrelated, then the fishery profit increases with diminishing returns. Therefore, the true optimum in management scale given cost to subdivision depends on the habitat distribution pattern.

Here we review the population, community, and evolutionary consequences of marine reserves. Responses at each level depend on the tendency of fisheries to target larger body sizes and the tendency for greater reserve protection with less movement within and across populations. The primary population response to reserves is survival to greater ages and sizes plus increases in the population size for harvested species, with greater response to reserves that are large relative to species' movement rates. The primary community response to reserves is an increase in total biomass and diversity, with the potential for trophic cascades and altered spatial patterning of metacommunities. The primary evolutionary response to reserves is increased genetic diversity, with the theoretical potential for protection against fisheries-induced evolution and selection for reduced movement. The potential for the combined outcome of these responses to buffer marine populations and communities against temporal environmental heterogeneity has preliminary theoretical and empirical support.

The goals of ecosystem-based management (EBM) include protecting ecological resilience, the magnitude of a perturbation that a community can withstand and remain in a given state. As a tool to achieve this goal, no-take marine reserves may enhance resilience by protecting source populations or reduce it by concentrating fishing in harvested areas. Here, we test whether spatial management with marine reserves can increase ecological resilience compared to non-spatial (conventional) management using a dynamic model of a simplified fish community with structured predation and competition that causes alternative stable states. Relative to non-spatial management, reserves increase the resilience of the desired (predator-dominated) equilibrium state in both stochastic and deterministic environments, especially under intensive fishing. As a result, spatial management also increases the feasibility of restoring degraded (competitor-dominated) systems, particularly if combined with culling of competitors or stock enhancement of adult predators.

Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additionally explored how coral traits and competition with macroalgae mediate changes in bleaching regimes. Our results predict that severe bleaching events reduce coral persistence more than frequent bleaching. Corals with low adult mortality and high growth rates are successful when bleaching is mild, but bleaching resistance is necessary to persist when bleaching is severe, regardless of frequency. The existence of macroalgae-dominated stable states reduces coral persistence and changes the relative importance of coral traits. Building on previous studies, our results predict that management efforts may need to prioritize protection of "weaker" corals with high adult mortality when bleaching is mild, and protection of "stronger" corals with high bleaching resistance when bleaching is severe. In summary, future reef projections and conservation targets depend on both local bleaching regimes and biodiversity.

Ecosystem-based fisheries management seeks to consider trade-offs among management objectives for interacting species, such as those that arise through predator-prey linkages. In particular, fisheries-targeting forage fish (small and abundant pelagic fish) might have a detrimental effect on fisheries-targeting predators that consume them. However, complexities in ecological interactions might dampen, negate, or even reverse this trade-off, because small pelagic fish can be important predators on egg stages of piscivorous fish. Further, the strength of this trade-off might depend on the extent to which piscivorous fish targeted by fisheries regulate forage species productivity. Here, we developed a novel delay-differential bioeconomic model of predator-prey and fishing dynamics to quantify how much egg predation or weak top-town control affects the strength of trade-off between forage and piscivore fisheries, and to measure how ecological interactions dictate policies that maximize steady-state profits. We parameterized the model based on ecological and economic data from the North Sea Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). The optimal policy was very sensitive to the ecological interactions (either egg predation or weak top-down control of forage by predators) at relatively low forage prices but was less sensitive at high forage fish prices. However, the optimal equilibrium harvest rates on forage and piscivores were not substantially different from what might be derived through analyses that did not consider species interactions. Applying the optimal multispecies policy would produce substantial losses (>25%) in profits in the piscivore fishery, and the extent of loss was sensitive to ecological scenarios. While our equilibrium analysis is informative, a dynamic analysis under similar ecological scenarios is necessary to reveal the full economic and ecological benefits of applying ecosystem-based fishery management policies to predator-prey fishery systems.

Climate change has caused shifts in seasonal timing of climatic events such as the onset of spring upwelling, which can lead to temporal mismatches between fish spawning and production of zoopklankton prey. Fishing may exacerbate mismatches through age truncation, particularly when offspring survival is dependent on maternal age, but no-take reserves or harvest reductions might buffer this effect. To quantify the potential for management to buffer synergistic interactions between fishing and climate, we developed a dynamic population model of a harvested species where larval survival depended on spring transition timing and maternal age. We applied this model to rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) after verifying empirically that spring transition timing affects their recruitment success. We found that yield and persistence changed more with maternal-agedependent larval provisioning than maternal-age-dependent spawning timing across a range of spring transition timings, especially with environmental stochasticity. Either implementing reserves or reducing fishing can mitigate impacts on larval survival, but reserves convey the added benefit of decreased sensitivity of yield and persistence to fishing. However, reserve buffering effects decreased with the inclusion of environmental stochasticity.

Many tropical corals have declined in abundance in the last few decades, and evaluating the causal basis of these losses is critical to understanding how coral reefs will change in response to ongoing environmental challenges. Motivated by the likelihood that marine environments will become increasingly unfavorable for coral growth as they warm and become more acidic (i.e., ocean acidification), it is reasonable to evaluate whether specific phenotypic traits of the coral holobiont are associated with ecological success (or failure) under varying environmental conditions including those that are adverse to survival. Initially, we asked whether it was possible to identify corals that are resistant or sensitive to such conditions by compiling quantitative measures of their phenotypic traits determined through empirical studies, but we found only weak phenotypic discrimination between ecological winners and losers, or among taxa. To reconcile this outcome with ecological evidence demonstrating that coral taxa are functionally unequal, we looked beyond the notion that phenotypic homogeneity arose through limitations of empirical data. Instead, we examined the validity of contemporary means of categorizing corals based on ecological success. As an alternative means to distinguish among functional groups of corals, we present a demographic approach using integral projection models (IPMs) that link organismal performance to demographic outcomes, such as the rates of population growth and responses to environmental stress. We describe how IPMs can be applied to corals so that future research can evaluate within a quantitative framework the extent to which changes in physiological performance influence the demographic underpinnings of ecological performance.

Community-level resilience depends on the interaction between multiple populations that vary in individual responses to disturbance. For example, in tropical reefs, some corals can survive higher stress (resistance) while others exhibit faster recovery (engineering resilience) following disturbances such as thermal stress. While each type will negatively affect the other through competition, each might also benefit the other by reducing the potential for an additional competitor such as macroalgae to invade after a disturbance. To determine how community composition affects ecological resilience, we modeled coral-macroalgae interactions given either a resistant coral, a resilient coral, or both together. Having both coral types (i.e., response diversity) can lead to observable enhanced ecological resilience if (1) the resilient coral is not a superior competitor and (2) disturbance levels are high enough such that the resilient coral would collapse when considered alone. This enhanced resilience occurs through competitor-enabled rescue where each coral increases the potential for the other to recover from disturbance through external recruitment, such that both corals benefit from the presence of each other in terms of total cover and resilience. Therefore, conservation management aimed at protecting resilience under global change requires consideration of both diversity and connectivity between sites experiencing differential disturbance.

Ecological theory predicts that interactions between antagonistic ecosystem engineers can lead to local competitive exclusion, but disturbance can facilitate broader coexistence. However, few empirical studies have tested the potential for disturbance to mediate competition between engineers. We examined the capacity for disturbance and habitat modification to explain the disjunct distributions of two benthic ecosystem engineers, eelgrass Zostera marina and the burrowing ghost shrimp Neotrypaea californiensis, in two California estuaries. Sediment sampling in eelgrass and ghost shrimp patches revealed that ghost shrimp change benthic biogeochemistry over small scales (centimeters) but not patch scales (meters to tens of meters), suggesting a limited capacity for sediment modification to explain species distributions. To determine the relative competitive abilities of engineers, we conducted reciprocal transplantations of ghost shrimp and eelgrass. Local ghost shrimp densities declined rapidly following the addition of eelgrass, and transplanted eelgrass expanded laterally into the surrounding ghost shrimp-dominated areas. When transplanted into eelgrass patches, ghost shrimp failed to persist. Ghost shrimp were also displaced from plots with structural mimics of eelgrass rhizomes and roots, suggesting that autogenic habitat modification by eelgrass is an important mechanism determining ghost shrimp distributions. However, ghost shrimp were able to rapidly colonize experimental disturbances to eelgrass patch edges, which are common in shallow estuaries. We conclude that coexistence in this system is maintained by spatiotemporally asynchronous disturbances and a competition-colonization trade-off: eelgrass is a competitively superior ecosystem engineer, but benthic disturbances permit the coexistence of ghost shrimp at the landscape scale by modulating the availability of space.

The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.