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1. Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author: Vollset, SE, Ababneh, HS, Abate, YH, Abbafati, C, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Abbasian, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd Al Magied, AHA, Abd ElHafeez, S, Abdelkader, A, Abdelmasseh, M, Abd-Elsalam, S, Abdi, P, Abdollahi, M, Abdoun, M, Abdullahi, A, Abebe, M, Abiodun, O, Aboagye, RG, Abolhassani, H, Abouzid, M, Aboye, GB, Abreu, LG, Absalan, A, Abualruz, H, Abubakar, B, Abukhadijah, HJJ, Addolorato, G, Adekanmbi, V, Adetunji, CO, Adetunji, JB, Adeyeoluwa, TE, Adha, R, Adhikary, RK, Adnani, QES, Adzigbli, LA, Afrashteh, F, Afzal, MS, Afzal, S, Agbozo, F, Agodi, A, Agrawal, A, Agyemang-Duah, W, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahlstrom, AJ, Ahmad, A, Ahmad, F, Ahmad, MM, Ahmad, S, Ahmed, A, Ahmed, H, Ahmed, S, Ahmed, SA, Akinosoglou, K, Akkaif, MA, Akrami, AE, Akter, E, Al Awaidy, S, Al Hasan, SM, Al Mosa, AS, Al Ta'ani, O, Al Zaabi, OAM, Alahdab, F, Alajlani, MM, Al-Ajlouni, Y, Alalalmeh, SO, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, N, Alam, T, Alam, Z, Al-Amer, RM, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Albakri, A, Aldhaleei, WA, Aldridge, RW, Alemohammad, SY, Alemu, YM, Al-Gheethi, AAS, Al-Hanawi, MK, Ali, A, Ali, I, Ali, MU, Ali, R, Ali, SSS, Ali, VE, Ali, W, Al-Ibraheem, A, Alicandro, G, Alif, SM, Aljunid, SM, Alla, F, Almazan, JU, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Alqutaibi, AY, Alrawashdeh, A, Alrousan, SM, Al-Sabah, SK, Alsabri, MA, Altaany, Z, Al-Tammemi, AB, Al-Tawfiq, JA, Altirkawi, KA, Aluh, DO, Alvis-Guzman, N, Al-Wardat, MS, Al-Worafi, YM, Aly, H, Alyahya, MS, Alzoubi, KH, Al-Zyoud, W, Amani, R, Ameyaw, EK, Amin, TT, Amindarolzarbi, A, Amiri, S, Amirzade-Iranaq, MH, Amu, H, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, DB, Andrade, PP, Andrei, CL, Andrei, T, Andrews, EA, Anil, A, Anil, S, Anoushiravani, A, Antony, CM, Antriyandarti, E, Anuoluwa, BS, Anvari, S, Anyasodor, AE, Appiah, F, Aquilano, M, Arab, JP, Arabloo, J, Arafa, EA, Arafat, M, Aravkin, AY, Ardekani, A, Areda, D, Aregawi, BB, Aremu, A, Ariffin, H, Arkew, M, Armani, K, Artamonov, AA, Arumugam, A, Asghari-Jafarabadi, M, Ashbaugh, C, Astell-Burt, T, Athari, SS, Atorkey, P, Atout, MMW, Aujayeb, A, Ausloos, M, Awad, H, Awotidebe, AW, Ayatollahi, H, Ayuso-Mateos, JL, Azadnajafabad, S, Azeez, FK, Azevedo, RMS, Badar, M, Baghdadi, S, Bagheri, M, Bagheri, N, Bai, R, Baker, JL, Bako, AT, Balakrishnan, S, Balcha, WF, Baltatu, OC, Barchitta, M, Bardideh, E, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnighausen, TW, Barqawi, HJ, Barteit, S, Basiru, A, Basso, JD, Bastan, M-M, Basu, S, Bauckneht, M, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bayileyegn, NS, Behnoush, AH, Behzadi, P, Beiranvand, M, Bello, OO, Belo, L, Beloukas, A, Bemanalizadeh, M, Bensenor, IM, Benzian, H, Beran, A, Berezvai, Z, Bernstein, RS, Bettencourt, PJG, Beyene, KA, Beyene, MG, Bhagat, DS, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhala, N, Bhandari, D, Bharadwaj, R, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhargava, A, Bhaskar, S, Bhat, V, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhatti, GK, Bhatti, JS, Bhatti, MS, Bhuiyan, MA, Bisignano, C, Biswas, B, Bjorge, T, Bodolica, V, Bodunrin, AO, Hashemi, MB, Basara, BB, Borhany, H, Bosoka, SA, Carvajal, AB, Bouaoud, S, Boufous, S, Boxe, C, Boyko, EJ, Brady, OJ, Braithwaite, D, Brauer, M, Brazo-Sayavera, J, Brenner, H, Brown, CS, Browne, AJ, Brugha, T, Bryazka, D, Bulamu, NB, Buonsenso, D, Burkart, K, Burns, RA, Busse, R, Bustanji, Y, Butt, ZA, dos Santos, FLC, Barsbay, MC, Calina, D, Campos, LA, Cao, S, Capodici, A, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carugno, A, Carvalho, M, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castelpietra, G, Cattaruzza, MS, Caye, A, Cegolon, L, Cembranel, F, Cenko, E, Cerin, E, Chadban, SJ, Chadwick, J, Chakraborty, C, Chakraborty, S, Chalek, J, Chan, JSK, Chandika, RM, Chandy, S, Charan, J, Chaudhary, AA, Chaurasia, A, Chen, A-T, Chen, H, Chen, MX, Chen, S, Cherbuin, N, Chi, G, Chichagi, F, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chimoriya, R, Ching, PR, Chirinos-Caceres, JL, Chitheer, A, Cho, DY, Cho, WCS, Choi, D-W, Chong, B, Chong, CL, Chopra, H, Chu, D-T, Chung, E, Chutiyami, M, Clayton, JT, Cogen, RM, Cohen, AJ, Columbus, A, Comfort, H, Conde, J, Connolly, JT, Cooper, EEK, Cortese, S, Cruz-Martins, N, da Silva, AG, Dadras, O, Dai, X, Dai, Z, Dalton, BE, Damiani, G, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Das, JK, Das, S, Dash, NR, Davletov, K, De la Hoz, FP, De Leo, D, Debopadhaya, S, Delgado-Enciso, I, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Dervenis, N, Desai, HD, Devanbu, VGC, Dewan, SMR, Dhama, K, Dhane, AS, Dhingra, S, da Silva, DD, Diaz, D, Diaz, LA, Diaz, MJ, Dima, A, Ding, DD, Do, THP, Do Prado, CB, Dodangeh, M, Doegah, PT, Dohare, S, Dong, W, D'Oria, M, Doshi, R, Dowou, RK, Dsouza, HL, Dsouza, V, Dube, J, Dumith, SC, Duncan, BB, Duraes, AR, Duraisamy, S, Durojaiye, OC, Dushpanova, A, Dutta, S, Dzianach, PA, Dziedzic, AM, Eboreime, E, Ebrahimi, A, Kalan, ME, Edinur, HA, Efendi, F, Eikemo, TA, Eini, E, Ekundayo, TC, El Arab, RA, El Sayed, I, Elamin, O, Elemam, NM, ElGohary, GMT, Elhadi, M, Elmeligy, OAA, Elmoselhi, AB, Elshaer, M, Elsohaby, I, Eltahir, ME, Emeto, TI, Eshrati, B, Eslami, M, Esmaeili, Z, Fabin, N, Fagbamigbe, AF, Fagbule, OF, Falzone, L, Fareed, M, Farinha, CSES, Faris, MEM, Faro, A, Fasihi, K, Fatehizadeh, A, Fauk, NK, Fazylov, T, Feigin, VL, Fekadu, G, Feng, X, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Ferrara, P, Ferreira, N, Firew, BS, Fischer, F, Fitriana, I, Flavel, J, Flor, LS, Folayan, MO, Foley, KM, Fonzo, M, Force, LM, Foschi, M, Freitas, A, Fridayani, NKY, Fukutaki, KG, Furtado, JM, Fux, B, Gaal, PA, Gadanya, MA, Gallus, S, Ganesan, B, Ganiyani, MA, Gautam, RK, Gebi, TG, Gebregergis, MW, Gebrehiwot, M, Getacher, L, Getahun, GKA, Gething, PW, Ghadimi, DJ, Ghadirian, F, Ghafarian, S, Ghailan, KY, Ghasemi, M, Dabaghi, GG, Ghazy, RM, Ghoba, S, Gholami, E, Gholamrezanezhad, A, Gholizadeh, N, Ghorbani, M, Vajargah, PG, Ghotbi, E, Gil, AU, Gill, TK, Girmay, A, Glasbey, JC, Glushkova, EV, Gnedovskaya, EV, Gobolos, L, Goldust, M, Goleij, P, Golinelli, D, Gopalani, SV, Goulart, AC, Gouravani, M, Goyal, A, Grivna, M, Grosso, G, Guarducci, G, Gubari, MIM, Guicciardi, S, Guimaraes, RA, Gulati, S, Gulisashvili, D, Gunawardane, DA, Guo, C, Gupta, AK, Gupta, R, Gupta, S, Gupta, VK, Haakenstad, A, Hadi, NR, Haep, N, Hafiz, A, Haghmorad, D, Haile, D, Ali, AH, Ali, HA, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Halboub, ES, Haller, S, Halwani, R, Abdullah, KH, Hamdy, NM, Hamoudi, R, Hanifi, N, Hankey, GJ, Haq, ZA, Haque, MR, Harapan, H, Hargono, A, Haro, JM, Hasaballah, AI, Hasan, SMM, Hasanian, M, Hasnain, MS, Hassan, A, Haubold, J, Hay, SI, Hebert, JJ, Hegazi, OE, Heidari, M, Hemmati, M, Henson, CA, Herrera-Serna, BY, Herteliu, C, Heydari, M, Hezam, K, Hidayana, I, Hiraike, Y, Hoan, NQ, Holla, R, Hoogar, P, Horita, N, Hossain, MM, Hosseinzadeh, H, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hu, C, Huang, J, Hultstrom, M, Hundie, TG, Hunt, AJ, Hushmandi, K, Hussain, J, Hussain, MA, Hussein, NR, Huynh, H-H, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Iftikhar, PM, Ikiroma, AI, Ikwegbue, PC, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Immurana, M, Isa, MA, Islam, MR, Islam, SMS, Ismail, F, Ismail, NE, Isola, G, Iwagami, M, Iyamu, IO, Jacob, L, Jacobsen, KH, Jafarinia, M, Jahankhani, K, Jahanmehr, N, Jain, N, Jairoun, AA, Mani, DRJ, Jamil, S, Jamora, RDG, Jatau, AI, Javadov, S, Javaheri, T, Jayaram, S, Jee, SH, Jeganathan, J, Jiang, H, Jokar, M, Jonas, JB, Joseph, N, Joshua, CE, Jurisson, M, Vaishali, K, Kabir, A, Kabir, Z, Kadashetti, V, Kalankesh, LR, Kalra, S, Kamath, A, Kamath, R, Kamireddy, A, Kanaan, M, Kanchan, T, Kanmiki, EW, Kanmodi, KK, Kansal, SK, Karim, A, Karkhah, S, Kashoo, FZ, Kasraei, H, Kassel, MB, Katikireddi, SV, Kauppila, JH, Kaur, H, Kayode, GA, Kazemi, F, Kazemian, S, Kebede, F, Kendal, ES, Kesse-Guyot, E, Khademvatan, S, Khajuria, H, Khalaji, A, Khalid, A, Khalid, N, Khalilian, A, Khamesipour, F, Khan, F, Khan, MJ, Khan, MAB, Khanmohammadi, S, Khatab, K, Khatatbeh, H, Khatatbeh, MM, Khatib, MN, Kashani, HRK, Kheirallah, KA, Khokhar, M, Khormali, M, Khorrami, Z, Khosla, AA, Khosravi, M, Khosrowjerdi, M, Khubchandani, J, Kifle, ZD, Kim, G, Kim, JS, Kim, MS, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Knibbs, LD, Knudsen, AKS, Kochhar, S, Kolahi, A-A, Kompani, F, Koren, G, Korzh, O, Krishan, K, Krishna, V, Krishnamoorthy, V, Bicer, BK, Kuddus, MA, Kuddus, M, Kuitunen, I, Kujan, O, Kulimbet, M, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, GA, Kumar, H, Kumar, N, Kumar, R, Kumar, V, Kundu, A, Kusuma, D, Kyei-Arthur, F, Kyto, V, Kyu, HH, La Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Ladan, MA, Laflamme, L, Lahariya, C, Lai, DTC, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lam, J, Lan, Q, Lan, T, Landires, I, Lanfranchi, F, Langguth, B, Lansingh, VC, Laplante-Levesque, A, Larijani, B, Larsson, AO, Lasrado, S, Lauriola, P, Lawlor, HR, Le, H-H, Le, LKD, Le, NHH, Le, TTT, Le, TDT, Leasher, JL, Lee, DW, Lee, M, Lee, PH, Lee, S-W, Lee, SW, Lee, SWH, Lee, YH, Leigh, J, Leong, E, Li, M-C, Libra, M, Ligade, VS, Lim, L-L, Lim, SS, Limenh, LW, Lindholm, D, Lindstedt, PA, Listl, S, Liu, G, Liu, S, Liu, X, Llanaj, E, Lopez-Bueno, R, Lopez-Gil, JF, Loreche, AM, Lotufo, PA, Lozano, R, Lubinda, J, Lucchetti, G, Luo, L, Lusk, JB, Lv, L, Amin, HIM, Ma, ZF, Maass, KL, Machairas, N, Machoy, M, Madureira-Carvalho, AM, Abd El Razek, HM, Maghazachi, AA, Prasad, DRM, Mahalleh, M, Mahasha, PW, Mahmoud, MA, Mahmoudi, E, Mahmoudvand, G, Makama, M, Rad, EM, Malhotra, K, Malik, AA, Malta, DC, Manla, Y, Mansour, A, Mansouri, MH, Mansouri, P, Mansouri, V, Mansourian, M, Mansournia, MA, Marasini, BP, Marateb, HR, Maravilla, JC, Mardi, P, Marjani, A, Moghadam, HM, Arnedo, CAM, Martinez, G, Martinez-Piedra, R, Martins-Melo, FR, Martorell, M, Marx, W, Marzo, RR, Masoudi, S, Mathangasinghe, Y, Mathioudakis, AG, Mathur, M, Mathur, N, Matozinhos, FP, Mattumpuram, J, Maude, RJ, Maugeri, A, Mayeli, M, Mazidi, M, Mazzotti, A, McGrath, JJ, Mckee, M, McKowen, ALW, McPhail, MA, McPhail, SM, Mehmood, A, Mehrabani-Zeinabad, K, Mehravar, S, Meto, TM, Melese, EB, Mendez-Lopez, MAM, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mensah, GA, Mensah, LG, Mentis, A-FA, Meo, SA, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mersha, AM, Mestrovic, T, Mettananda, KCD, Mettananda, S, Mhlanga, A, Mhlanga, L, Miazgowski, T, Michalek, IM, de Sa, ACMGN, Miller, TR, Minh, LHN, Mirahmadi, A, Mirijello, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mirzaei, R, Mitchell, PB, Mittal, C, Moberg, ME, Fard, AM, Mohajelin, S, Mohamadkhani, A, Mohamed, AI, Mohamed, J, Mohamed, MFH, Mohamed, NS, Mohammad, AM, Mohammadi, S, Mohammed, H, Mohammed, M, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Molokhia, M, Momani, SM, Momtazmanesh, S, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Moni, MA, Montazeri, F, Ghalibaf, AM, Moradi, M, Moradi, Y, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Moreira, RS, Morovatdar, N, Morrison, SD, Mosapour, A, Mosser, JF, Mossialos, E, Motappa, R, Mougin, V, Mousavi, P, Mrejen, M, Mubarik, S, Mueller, UO, Mulita, F, Munjal, K, Murillo-Zamora, E, Musallam, KM, Musina, A-M, Mustafa, G, Myung, W, Nafei, A, Nagarajan, AJ, Naghavi, P, Naik, GR, Naik, G, Nainu, F, Najdaghi, S, Ansari, NN, Nangia, V, Swamy, SN, Nargus, S, Davani, DN, Nascimento, BR, Nascimento, GG, Naser, AY, Nashwan, AJ, Natto, ZS, Nauman, J, Navaratna, SNK, Naveed, M, Nawsherwan, Nayak, BP, Nayak, VC, Negash, H, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Nejadghaderi, SA, Nejjari, C, Nematollahi, S, Netsere, HB, Ng, M, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, AH, Nguyen, DH, Nguyen, HTH, Nguyen, N, Nguyen, NNY, Nguyen, PT, Nguyen, QP, Nguyen, VT, Minh, DNT, Niazi, RK, Nigatu, YT, Niknam, M, Nikoobar, A, Nikpoor, AR, Nikravangolsefid, N, Noman, EA, Nomura, S, Noor, STA, Noroozi, N, Nouri, M, Nozari, M, Nri-Ezedi, CA, Ntaios, G, Nunemo, MH, Nurrika, D, Nutor, JJ, Nzoputam, CI, Nzoputam, OJ, Oancea, B, Obamiro, KO, Odetokun, IA, Oduro, MS, Ogundijo, OA, Ogunfowokan, AA, Ogunkoya, A, Oguntade, AS, Oh, I-H, Ojo-Akosile, TR, Okati-Aliabad, H, Okekunle, AP, Okonji, OC, Olagunju, AT, Olatubi, MI, Oliveira, GMM, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Oluwafemi, YD, Omar, HA, Omer, GL, Ong, S, Onie, S, Onwujekwe, OE, Opejin, AO, Ordak, M, Orish, VN, Ortiz, A, Ortiz-Prado, E, Osman, WMS, Ostojic, SM, Ostroff, SM, Osuagwu, UL, Otoiu, A, Otstavnov, SS, Ouyahia, A, Owolabi, MO, Oyeyemi, OT, Ozair, A, Padukudru, MPA, Padron-Monedero, A, Padubidri, JR, Pal, PK, Palicz, T, Pan, F, Pan, H-F, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Pando-Robles, V, Pangaribuan, HU, Panos, GD, Panos, LD, Pantazopoulos, I, Stoian, AMP, Parikh, RR, Park, E-K, Park, S, Parsons, N, Parthasarathi, A, Pasovic, M, Passera, R, Patel, J, Pathan, AR, Patil, S, Patoulias, D, Pawar, S, Toroudi, HP, Pease, SA, Peden, AE, Pedersini, P, Pensato, U, Pepito, VCF, Peprah, P, Pereira, M, Pereira, MO, Perianayagam, A, Perico, N, Perna, S, Pesudovs, K, Petermann-Rocha, FE, Pham, HT, Philip, AK, Phillips, MR, Pigeolet, M, Piradov, MA, Pisoni, E, Plotnikov, E, Poddighe, D, Polibin, RV, Poluru, R, Ponkilainen, VT, Popovic, DS, Postma, MJ, Pour-Rashidi, A, Prabhu, D, Prada, SI, Pradhan, J, Pradhan, PMS, Prashant, A, Prates, EJS, Priscilla, T, Purnobasuki, H, Purohit, BM, Puvvula, J, Qasim, NH, Qattea, I, Qazi, AS, Qian, G, Rad, MR, Radhakrishnan, V, Shahraki, HR, Rafferty, Q, Raggi, A, Raggi, C, Raheem, N, Rahim, F, Rahim, MJ, Rahimibarghani, S, Rahman, MMMR, Rahman, M, Rahman, MA, Rahman, T, Rahmani, AM, Rahmanian, M, Rahmanian, N, Rahmati, R, Rahmawaty, S, Raimondo, D, Raja, A, Rajput, P, Ramadan, M, Ramasamy, SK, Ramazanu, S, Ramteke, PW, Rana, K, Rana, RK, Ranabhat, CL, Rane, A, Rao, CR, Rao, M, Rasella, D, Rashedi, V, Rashid, AM, Rasouli-Saravani, A, Rastogi, P, Rasul, A, Rathish, D, Babu, GR, Rauniyar, SK, Ravangard, R, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Raza, RZ, Redwan, EMM, Reifels, L, Reitsma, MB, Remuzzi, G, Rengasamy, KRR, Reshmi, B, Resnikoff, S, Restaino, S, Reyes, LF, Rezaei, N, Rezaei, ZS, Rezaeian, M, Rhee, TG, Rickard, J, Robalik, T, Robinson-Oden, HE, Rocha, HAL, Rodrigues, M, Rodriguez, JAB, Roever, L, Romadlon, DS, Ronfani, L, Rony, MKK, Roshandel, G, Rotimi, K, Rout, HS, Roy, B, Rubagotti, E, Ruela, GDA, Rumisha, SF, Runghien, T, Russo, M, Saad, AMA, Saber, K, Saber-Ayad, MM, Sabet, CJ, Sabour, S, Sachdev, PS, Saddler, A, Sadee, BA, Sadeghi, M, Saeb, MR, Saeed, U, Safi, SZ, Sagar, R, Saghafi, A, Sagoe, D, Sahebkar, A, Sahoo, PM, Sajid, MR, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salami, AA, Saleh, MA, Salehi, L, Salem, MR, Salemcity, AJ, Salimi, S, Kafil, HS, Samargandy, S, Samodra, YL, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Sanna, F, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Jose, BPS, Saraswathy, SYI, Saravanan, A, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sarode, GS, Sarode, SC, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Sayeed, A, Scarmeas, N, Schaarschmidt, BM, Schinckus, C, Schuermans, A, Schumacher, AE, Schutte, AE, Schwebel, DC, Schwendicke, F, Selvaraj, S, Semreen, MH, Senapati, S, Sengupta, P, Senthilkumaran, S, Serban, D, Sethi, Y, Seylani, A, Shafie, M, Shah, PA, Shahbandi, A, Shahid, S, Shahid, W, Shahsavari, HR, Shahwan, MJ, Shaikh, MA, Shalash, AS, Shamekh, A, Shamim, MA, Shanawaz, M, Shankar, A, Shannawaz, M, Sharath, M, Sharfaei, S, Sharifan, A, Sharifi-Rad, J, Sharma, A, Sharma, M, Sharma, S, Sharma, V, Shastry, RP, Shayan, M, Shekhar, S, Shenoy, RR, Shetty, M, Shetty, PH, Shetty, PK, Shi, P, Shiani, A, Shigematsu, M, Shimels, T, Shiri, R, Shittu, A, Shiue, I, Shivakumar, KM, Shool, S, Shorofi, SA, Shrestha, S, Shuval, K, Si, Y, Siddig, EE, Sidhu, JK, Silva, JP, Silva, LMLR, Silva, S, Silva, TPR, Simpson, CR, Simpson, KE, Singh, A, Singh, BB, Singh, B, Singh, H, Singh, J, Singh, P, Skou, ST, Smith, G, Sobia, F, Socea, B, Solanki, S, Soleimani, H, Soliman, SSM, Song, Y, Soyiri, IN, Spartalis, M, Spearman, S, Sreeramareddy, CT, Stanaway, JD, Stanikzai, MH, Starodubova, AV, Stein, DJ, Steiner, C, Steiropoulos, P, Stockfelt, L, Stokes, MA, Straif, K, Subedi, N, Abdulkader, RS, Sultana, A, Sun, J, Sundstrom, J, Swain, CK, Szarpak, L, Szeto, MD, Damavandi, PT, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Malazy, OT, Tabatabaeizadeh, S-A, Tabatabai, S, Tabb, KM, Tabche, C, Tabish, M, Abkenar, YT, Soodejani, MT, Taiba, J, Talaat, IM, Tamuzi, JL, Tan, K-K, Tang, H, Tat, NY, Oliaee, RT, Tavangar, SM, Taveira, N, Tbakhi, A, Tehrani, H, Temsah, M-H, Teramoto, M, Tesfaye, BT, Teye-Kwadjo, E, Thangaraju, P, Thankappan, KR, Thapar, R, Rasiah, Thayakaran, Thirunavukkarasu, S, Thomas, N, Thygesen, LC, Ticoalu, JHV, Timalsena, D, Tiruye, TY, Tiwari, K, Tomo, S, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, AT, Tran, JT, Tran, NM, Tran, TH, Trico, D, 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Onwujekwe, OE, Opejin, AO, Ordak, M, Orish, VN, Ortiz, A, Ortiz-Prado, E, Osman, WMS, Ostojic, SM, Ostroff, SM, Osuagwu, UL, Otoiu, A, Otstavnov, SS, Ouyahia, A, Owolabi, MO, Oyeyemi, OT, Ozair, A, Padukudru, MPA, Padron-Monedero, A, Padubidri, JR, Pal, PK, Palicz, T, Pan, F, Pan, H-F, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Pando-Robles, V, Pangaribuan, HU, Panos, GD, Panos, LD, Pantazopoulos, I, Stoian, AMP, Parikh, RR, Park, E-K, Park, S, Parsons, N, Parthasarathi, A, Pasovic, M, Passera, R, Patel, J, Pathan, AR, Patil, S, Patoulias, D, Pawar, S, Toroudi, HP, Pease, SA, Peden, AE, Pedersini, P, Pensato, U, Pepito, VCF, Peprah, P, Pereira, M, Pereira, MO, Perianayagam, A, Perico, N, Perna, S, Pesudovs, K, Petermann-Rocha, FE, Pham, HT, Philip, AK, Phillips, MR, Pigeolet, M, Piradov, MA, Pisoni, E, Plotnikov, E, Poddighe, D, Polibin, RV, Poluru, R, Ponkilainen, VT, Popovic, DS, Postma, MJ, Pour-Rashidi, A, Prabhu, D, Prada, SI, Pradhan, J, Pradhan, PMS, Prashant, A, Prates, EJS, Priscilla, T, Purnobasuki, H, Purohit, BM, Puvvula, J, Qasim, NH, Qattea, I, Qazi, AS, Qian, G, Rad, MR, Radhakrishnan, V, Shahraki, HR, Rafferty, Q, Raggi, A, Raggi, C, Raheem, N, Rahim, F, Rahim, MJ, Rahimibarghani, S, Rahman, MMMR, Rahman, M, Rahman, MA, Rahman, T, Rahmani, AM, Rahmanian, M, Rahmanian, N, Rahmati, R, Rahmawaty, S, Raimondo, D, Raja, A, Rajput, P, Ramadan, M, Ramasamy, SK, Ramazanu, S, Ramteke, PW, Rana, K, Rana, RK, Ranabhat, CL, Rane, A, Rao, CR, Rao, M, Rasella, D, Rashedi, V, Rashid, AM, Rasouli-Saravani, A, Rastogi, P, Rasul, A, Rathish, D, Babu, GR, Rauniyar, SK, Ravangard, R, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Raza, RZ, Redwan, EMM, Reifels, L, Reitsma, MB, Remuzzi, G, Rengasamy, KRR, Reshmi, B, Resnikoff, S, Restaino, S, Reyes, LF, Rezaei, N, Rezaei, ZS, Rezaeian, M, Rhee, TG, Rickard, J, Robalik, T, Robinson-Oden, HE, Rocha, HAL, Rodrigues, M, Rodriguez, JAB, Roever, L, Romadlon, DS, Ronfani, L, Rony, MKK, Roshandel, G, Rotimi, K, Rout, HS, Roy, B, Rubagotti, E, Ruela, GDA, Rumisha, SF, Runghien, T, Russo, M, Saad, AMA, Saber, K, Saber-Ayad, MM, Sabet, CJ, Sabour, S, Sachdev, PS, Saddler, A, Sadee, BA, Sadeghi, M, Saeb, MR, Saeed, U, Safi, SZ, Sagar, R, Saghafi, A, Sagoe, D, Sahebkar, A, Sahoo, PM, Sajid, MR, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salami, AA, Saleh, MA, Salehi, L, Salem, MR, Salemcity, AJ, Salimi, S, Kafil, HS, Samargandy, S, Samodra, YL, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Sanna, F, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Jose, BPS, Saraswathy, SYI, Saravanan, A, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sarode, GS, Sarode, SC, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Sayeed, A, Scarmeas, N, Schaarschmidt, BM, Schinckus, C, Schuermans, A, Schumacher, AE, Schutte, AE, Schwebel, DC, Schwendicke, F, Selvaraj, S, Semreen, MH, Senapati, S, Sengupta, P, Senthilkumaran, S, Serban, D, Sethi, Y, Seylani, A, Shafie, M, Shah, PA, Shahbandi, A, Shahid, S, Shahid, W, Shahsavari, HR, Shahwan, MJ, Shaikh, MA, Shalash, AS, Shamekh, A, Shamim, MA, Shanawaz, M, Shankar, A, Shannawaz, M, Sharath, M, Sharfaei, S, Sharifan, A, Sharifi-Rad, J, Sharma, A, Sharma, M, Sharma, S, Sharma, V, Shastry, RP, Shayan, M, Shekhar, S, Shenoy, RR, Shetty, M, Shetty, PH, Shetty, PK, Shi, P, Shiani, A, Shigematsu, M, Shimels, T, Shiri, R, Shittu, A, Shiue, I, Shivakumar, KM, Shool, S, Shorofi, SA, Shrestha, S, Shuval, K, Si, Y, Siddig, EE, Sidhu, JK, Silva, JP, Silva, LMLR, Silva, S, Silva, TPR, Simpson, CR, Simpson, KE, Singh, A, Singh, BB, Singh, B, Singh, H, Singh, J, Singh, P, Skou, ST, Smith, G, Sobia, F, Socea, B, Solanki, S, Soleimani, H, Soliman, SSM, Song, Y, Soyiri, IN, Spartalis, M, Spearman, S, Sreeramareddy, CT, Stanaway, JD, Stanikzai, MH, Starodubova, AV, Stein, DJ, Steiner, C, Steiropoulos, P, Stockfelt, L, Stokes, MA, Straif, K, Subedi, N, Abdulkader, RS, Sultana, A, Sun, J, Sundstrom, J, Swain, CK, Szarpak, L, Szeto, MD, Damavandi, PT, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Malazy, OT, Tabatabaeizadeh, S-A, Tabatabai, S, Tabb, KM, Tabche, C, Tabish, M, Abkenar, YT, Soodejani, MT, Taiba, J, Talaat, IM, Tamuzi, JL, Tan, K-K, Tang, H, Tat, NY, Oliaee, RT, Tavangar, SM, Taveira, N, Tbakhi, A, Tehrani, H, Temsah, M-H, Teramoto, M, Tesfaye, BT, Teye-Kwadjo, E, Thangaraju, P, Thankappan, KR, Thapar, R, Rasiah, Thayakaran, Thirunavukkarasu, S, Thomas, N, Thygesen, LC, Ticoalu, JHV, Timalsena, D, Tiruye, TY, Tiwari, K, Tomo, S, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, AT, Tran, JT, Tran, NM, Tran, TH, Trico, D, Tromans, SJ, Truyen, TTTT, Tsatsakis, A, Tsermpini, EE, Tumurkhuu, M, Turnock, ST, Udoh, A, Ullah, A, Ullah, S, Umakanthan, S, Umar, M, Umar, SS, Unim, B, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Usman, JS, Vahdati, S, Vaithinathan, AG, Vakili, O, Valizadeh, R, Van den Eynde, J, Vart, P, Varthya, SB, Vasankari, TJ, Vasic, M, Venketasubramanian, N, Veroux, M, Verras, G-I, Vervoort, D, Vijayageetha, M, Villafane, JH, Vinayak, M, Violante, FS, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, V, Vo, B, Vohra, K, Vos, T, Wadood, AW, Waheed, Y, Wang, F, Wang, S, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wanjau, MN, Waqas, M, Ward, P, Waris, A, Wassie, EG, Watson, S, Weaver, MR, Weerakoon, KG, Weintraub, RG, Weldetinsaa, HLL, Wells, KM, Wen, YF, Westerman, R, Wiangkham, T, Wickramasinghe, DP, Widowati, E, Wojewodzic, MW, Woldeyes, DH, Wolf, AW, Wolfe, CDA, Wu, C, Wu, D, Wu, F, Wu, J, Wu, Z, Hanson, SW, Xiao, H, Xu, S, Yadav, R, Yamagishi, K, Yang, D, Yano, Y, Yarahmadi, A, Nia, IY, Ye, P, Yesodharan, R, Yesuf, SA, Yezli, S, Yigit, A, Yigit, V, Yigzaw, ZA, Yin, D, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, You, Y, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Yu, EA, Yu, Y, Yuan, C-W, Yusuf, H, Zafar, U, Zafari, N, Zahid, MH, Zakham, F, Zaki, N, Zerfu, TA, Zhang, H, Zhang, J, Zhang, L, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z, Zhao, X-JG, Zhao, Y, Zhao, Z, Zhong, C, Zhou, B, Zhou, J, Zhou, S, Zhu, B, Zhumagaliuly, A, Zielinska, M, Zoghi, G, Zumla, A, Zyoud, SH, Smith, AE, and Murray, CJL
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects m
Published: 2024

2. Safety of age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine in children with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency who are infected with Plasmodium falciparum in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial

Author: Taylor, WR, Olupot-Olupot, P, Onyamboko, MA, Peerawaranun, P, Weere, W, Namayanja, C, Onyas, P, Titin, H, Baseke, J, Muhindo, R, Kayembe, DK, Ndjowo, PO, Basara, BB, Bongo, GS, Okalebo, CB, Abongo, G, Uyoga, S, Williams, TN, Taya, C, Dhorda, M, Tarning, J, Dondorp, AM, Waithira, N, Fanello, C, Maitland, K, Mukaka, M, and Day, NJP
Subjects: Infectious Diseases
Abstract: Background:WHO recommends gametocytocidal, single low-dose primaquine for blocking the transmission ofPlasmodium falciparum; however, safety concerns have hampered the implementation of this strategy in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to investigate the safety of age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine in children from Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Methods:We conducted this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial at the Mbale Regional Referral Hospital, Mbale, Uganda, and the Kinshasa Mahidol Oxford Research Unit, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Children aged between 6 months and 11 years with acute uncomplicatedP falciparuminfection and haemoglobin concentrations of at least 6 g/dL were enrolled. Patients were excluded if they had a comorbid illness requiring inpatient treatment, were taking haemolysing drugs for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, were allergic to the study drugs, or were enrolled in another clinical trial. G6PD status was defined by genotyping for theG6PDc.202T allele, the cause of the G6PD-deficient A− variant. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive single low-dose primaquine combined with either artemether–lumefantrine or dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine, dosed by bodyweight. Randomisation was stratified by age and G6PD status. The primary endpoint was the development of profound (haemoglobin Findings:Participants were recruited at the Mbale Regional Referral Hospital between Dec 18, 2017, and Oct 7, 2019, and at the Kinshasa Mahidol Oxford Research Unit between July 17, 2017, and Oct 5, 2019. 4620 patients were assessed for eligibility. 3483 participants were excluded, most owing to negative rapid diagnostic test or negative malaria slide (n=2982). 1137 children with a median age of 5 years were enrolled and randomly assigned (286 to the artemether–lumefantrine plus single low-dose primaquine group, 286 to the artemether–lumefantrine plus placebo group, 283 to the dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine plus single low-dose primaquine group, and 282 to the dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine plus placebo group). Genotyping ofG6PDidentified 239 G6PD-c.202T hemizygous males and 45 G6PD-c.202T homozygous females (defining the G6PD-deficient group), 119 heterozygous females, 418 G6PD-c.202C normal males and 299 G6PD-c.202C normal females (defining the non-G6PD-deficient group), and 17 children of unknown status. 67 patients were lost to follow-up and four patients withdrew during the study—these numbers were similar between groups. No participants developed profound anaemia and three developed severe anaemia: from the G6PD-deficient group, none (0%) of 133 patients who received placebo and one (0·66%) of 151 patients who received primaquine (difference −0·66%, 95% CI −1·96 to 0·63; p=0·35); and from the non-G6PD-deficient group, one (0·23%) of 430 patients who received placebo and one (0·25%) of 407 patients who received primaquine (−0·014%, −0·68 to 0·65; p=0·97). Interpretation:Gametocytocidal, age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine was well tolerated in children from Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo who were infected withP falciparum, and the safety profile of this treatment was similar to that of the placebo. These data support the wider implementation of single low-dose primaquine in Africa.
Published: 2022

3. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author: Wang, H, Liddell, CA, Coates, MM, Mooney, MD, Levitz, CE, Schumacher, AE, Apfel, H, Iannarone, M, Phillips, B, Lofgren, KT, Sandar, L, Dorrington, RE, Rakovac, I, Jacobs, TA, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Zhu, J, Yang, G, Wang, Y, Liu, S, Li, Y, Ozgoren, AA, Abera, SF, Abubakar, I, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Alemu, ZA, Allen, PJ, AlMazroa, MA, Alvarez, E, Amankwaa, AA, Amare, AT, Ammar, W, Anwari, P, Cunningham, SA, Asad, MM, Assadi, R, Banerjee, A, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bekele, T, Bell, ML, Bhutta, Z, Blore, JD, Basara, BB, Boufous, S, Breitborde, N, Bruce, NG, Bui, LN, Carapetis, JR, Cárdenas, R, Carpenter, DO, Caso, V, Castro, RE, Catalá-Lopéz, F, Cavlin, A, Che, X, Chiang, PP, Chowdhury, R, Christophi, CA, Chuang, TW, Cirillo, M, da Costa Leite, I, Courville, KJ, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Davis, A, Dayama, A, Deribe, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dherani, MK, Dilmen, U, Ding, EL, Edmond, KM, Ermakov, SP, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, SM, Fijabi, DO, Foigt, N, Forouzanfar, MH, Garcia, AC, Geleijnse, JM, Gessner, BD, Goginashvili, K, Gona, P, Goto, A, Gouda, HN, Green, MA, Greenwell, KF, Gugnani, HC, Gupta, R, Hamadeh, RR, Hammami, M, Harb, HL, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, MT, Hosgood, HD, Hoy, DG, Idrisov, BT, Islami, F, Ismayilova, S, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, G, Jonas, JB, Juel, K, Kabagambe, EK, Kazi, DS, Kengne, AP, Kereselidze, M, Khader, YS, Khalifa, SE, Khang, YH, Kim, D, Kinfu, Y, Kinge, JM, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, K, Kumar, RB, Lai, T, Lan, Q, Larsson, A, Lee, JT, Leinsalu, M, Lim, SS, Lipshultz, SE, Logroscino, G, Lotufo, PA, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, RA, Ma, S, Mahdi, AA, Marzan, MB, Mashal, MT, Mazorodze, TT, McGrath, JJ, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, A, Miller, TR, Mills, EJ, Mohammad, KA, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Moore, AR, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, WT, Mueller, UO, Muszynska, MM, Naghavi, M, Naidoo, KS, Narayan, KM, Nejjari, C, Ng, M, de Dieu Ngirabega, J, Nieuwenhuijsen, MJ, Nyakarahuka, L, Ohkubo, T, Omer, SB, Caicedo, AJ, Pillay-van Wyk, V, Pope, D, Pourmalek, F, Prabhakaran, D, Rahman, SU, Rana, SM, Reilly, RQ, Rojas-Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Rushton, L, Saeedi, MY, Salomon, JA, Sampson, U, Santos, IS, Sawhney, M, Schmidt, JC, Shakh-Nazarova, M, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Shin, HH, Shishani, K, Shiue, I, Sigfusdottir, ID, Singh, JA, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soshnikov, SS, Sposato, LA, Stathopoulou, VK, Stroumpoulis, K, Tabb, KM, Talongwa, RT, Teixeira, CM, Terkawi, AS, Thomson, AJ, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Toyoshima, H, Dimbuene, ZT, Uwaliraye, P, Uzun, SB, Vasankari, TJ, Vasconcelos, AM, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Waller, S, Wan, X, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, RG, Westerman, R, Wilkinson, JD, Williams, HC, Yang, YC, Yentur, GK, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, M, Yu, C, Jin, KY, El Sayed Zaki, M, Zhu, S, Vos, T, Lopez, AD, and Murray, CJ
Abstract: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.
Published: 2018

4. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Roth, Gregory A., Collaborotors, G. B. D.Causes Death, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M., Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Load, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Adamu, Abdu A., Adebayo, Oladimeji, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adookunboh, Olatunii, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adib, Mina G., Admasie, Aniha, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Karelia M., Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Melidi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayent, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Fddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyeniti, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Alandab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alebel, Animut, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Alonso, Jordi, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Aminde, Leopold N., Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampern, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Hossein, Aniha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Aremu, Olatunde, Arnlov, Johan, Arora, Amit, Arora, Monika, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephremi Tsegay, Ataro, Zerihun, Atique, Suleman, Atre, Sachin R., Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A., Awasthi, Ashish, Quintattilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Bacha, Umar, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ballesteros, Katherine E., Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Kajori, Bannick, Marlena S., Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyu, Barnighausen, Till Winfried, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope, Bassat, Quique, Base, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beth, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Mcysam, Bejot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belacliew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berman, Adam F., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Bertolacci, Gregory J., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Sounayadeeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Biehl, Molly H., Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shandaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Blacker, Brigitte F., Basara, Berrak Bora, Borschmann, Rohan, Bosetti, Cristina, Bozorgmehr, Kayvan, Brady, Oliver J., Brant, Luisa C., Brayne, Carol, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Callender, Charlton S. K. H., Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Rincon, Julio Cesar Canapuzano, Cano, Jorge, Car, Mate, Cardenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Felix, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Castle, Chris D., Castro, Clara, Castro, Franz, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chang, Jung -Chen, Chanson, Fiona J., Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheet, Abdulaal, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J., Chiang, Sheng-Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M., Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J., Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Cousin, Ewerton, Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Crump, John A., Cunningham, Matthew, Daba, Alemneh Kabeta, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dang, Anh Kim, Dargan, Paul I., Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Siddharth K., Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, Jose, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Davis, Adrian C., Weaver, Nicole Davis, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, De La Hoz, Fernando Pio, De Neve, Jan-Walter, Degefa, Meaza Girma, Degenhardt, Louisa, Degfie, Tizta T., Deiparine, Selina, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Demtsu, Baleen Betsu, Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Jarlais, Don C. 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Jc, Ferrari, Aj, Feyissa, Gt, Foigt, Na, Foreman, Kj, Frank, Td, Fuller, Je, Fürst, T, Furtado, Jm, Futran, Nd, Garcia-Basteiro, Al, Garcia-Gordillo, Ma, Gardner, Wm, Gebre, Ak, Gebrehiwot, Tt, Gebremedhin, At, Gebremichael, Tg, Gelano, Tf, Geleijnse, Jm, Geramo, Ycd, Gething, Pw, Gezae, Ke, Ghadami, Mr, Gibney, Kb, Gill, Tk, Gillum, Rf, Ginawi, Ia, Goldberg, Em, Gómez-Dantés, H, Gona, Pn, Gopalani, Sv, Gorman, Tm, Goulart, Ac, Gnedovskaya, Ev, Gugnani, Hc, Guimaraes, Al, Gupta, Pc, Gutiérrez, Ra, Haagsma, Ja, Hagos, Tb, Hailegiyorgis, Tt, Hailu, Gb, Hamadeh, Rr, Handal, Aj, Hankey, Gj, Harb, Hl, Haro, Jm, Hassen, Hy, Hay, Rj, Hay, Si, Hegazy, Mi, Henry, Nj, Hibstu, Dt, Hoek, Hw, Hole, Mk, Hosgood, Hd, Hosseini, Sm, Hotez, Pj, Hoy, Dg, Huang, Jj, Hussen, Mm, Irvani, Ssn, Irvine, Cm, Islam, Sm, Jacobsen, Kh, Jain, Sk, Jalu, Mt, James, Sl, Jayatilleke, Au, Jenkins, Kj, Jha, Rp, Johnson, Co, Johnson, Sc, Jonas, Jb, Jozwiak, Jj, Jungari, Sb, Jürisson, M, Kassa, Dh, Kassa, Gm, Kassa, Td, Kassebaum, Nj, Katikireddi, Sv, Karyani, Ak, Kefale, At, Keiyoro, Pn, Kemp, Gr, Kengne, Ap, Kesavachandran, Cn, Khafaie, Ma, Khalil, Ia, Khan, Ea, Khan, Ma, Khang, Yh, Khater, Mm, Khoja, At, Khosravi, Mh, Kiadaliri, Aa, Kibret, Gd, Kidanemariam, Zt, Kiirithio, Dn, Kim, Ye, Kim, Yj, Kimokoti, Rw, Kivimäki, M, Knudsen, Ak, Kocarnik, Jm, Kopec, Ja, Koul, Pa, Kravchenko, Ma, Kumar, Ga, Kutz, Mj, Kyu, Hh, Lad, Dp, Lad, Sd, Lal, Dk, Lam, Jo, Lami, Fh, Lansingh, Vc, Larson, Hj, Lau, Km, Lazarus, Jv, Lee, Ph, Leshargie, Ct, Lim, Ll, Limenih, Ma, Lopez, Ad, Lotufo, Pa, Macarayan, Erk, Mackay, Mt, Maclachlan, Jh, Maddison, Er, Maghavani, Dp, Malta, Dc, Manda, Al, Mandarano-Filho, Lg, Mansournia, Ma, Mapoma, Cc, Maravilla, Jc, Marks, Gb, Martins-Melo, Fr, März, W, Marzan, Mb, Masci, Jr, Massenburg, Bb, Mathur, Mr, Maulik, Pk, Mcgrath, Jj, Mcmahon, Bj, Mehndiratta, Mm, Mehta, Km, Mekonnen, Tc, Memiah, Ptn, Memish, Za, Mengistu, Dt, Mensah, Ga, Mereta, St, Meretoja, Tj, Mezgebe, Hb, Millear, Ai, Miller, Tr, Miller-Petrie, Mk, Mini, Gk, Mirrakhimov, Em, Misganaw, At, Mohammad, Ka, Mohammed, Ma, Mokdad, Ah, Moreno Velásquez, I, Morrison, Sd, Moschos, Mm, Mousavi, Sm, Muchie, Kf, Mueller, Uo, Mumford, Je, Musa, Ki, Nachega, Jb, Nansseu, Jr, Nascimento, Br, Negoi, Ri, Newton, Crj, Ngalesoni, Fn, Ngunjiri, Jw, Nguyen, Aq, Nguyen, Ht, Nguyen, Lh, Nguyen, Th, Ningrum, Dna, Nirayo, Yl, Nixon, Mr, Norheim, Of, Noubiap, Jj, Nouri, Hr, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M, Nowroozi, Mr, Odell, Cm, Ogbo, Fa, Oh, Ih, Olagunju, At, Olivares, Pr, Olsen, He, Olusanya, Bo, Olusanya, Jo, Ong, Kl, Ong, Sk, Orpana, Hm, Ortiz, Jr, Øverland, S, Owolabi, Mo, Özdemir, R, P A, M, Pakhare, Ap, Pakpour, Ah, Pandian, Jd, Park, Ek, Parry, Cdh, Patton, Gc, Paturi, Vr, Paulson, Kr, Pereira, Dm, Phillips, Mr, Piel, Fb, Pigott, Dm, Pillay, Jd, Postma, Mj, Purcell, Ca, Quistberg, Da, Rade, Kw, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, Mhu, Rahman, Ma, Rai, Rk, Ranabhat, Cl, Rao, Pc, Rawaf, Dl, Razo-García, C, Reiner, Rc, Reitsma, Mb, Renzaho, Amn, Riahi, Sm, Ribeiro, Alp, Rios-Blancas, Mj, Roba, Kt, Roberts, Nl, Robinson, Sr, Sahraian, Ma, Saldanha, Rf, Sambala, Ez, Samy, Am, Sanchez-Niño, Md, Santomauro, Df, Santos, Jv, Milicevic, Mm, Sao Jose, Bp, Sarker, Ar, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Sawant, Ar, Schmidt, Mi, Schneider, Ijc, Schöttker, B, Schutte, Ae, Schwebel, Dc, Scott, Jg, Sepanlou, Sg, Serván-Mori, E, Shackelford, Ka, Shaheen, Aa, Shaikh, Ma, Shrime, Mg, Siddiqi, Tj, Sigfusdottir, Id, Silberberg, Dh, Silva, Da, Silva, Jp, Silva, Ntd, Silveira, Dga, Singh, Ja, Singh, Np, Singh, Pk, Sinha, Dn, Sobaih, Bh, Sorensen, Rjd, Soriano, Jb, Soyiri, In, Sposato, La, Sreeramareddy, Ct, Stanaway, Jd, Starodubov, Vi, Stein, Dj, Stewart, Lg, Stokes, Ma, Subart, Ml, Sufiyan, Mb, Sur, Pj, Sykes, Bl, Sylaja, Pn, Sylte, Do, Szoeke, Cei, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tadakamadla, Sk, Tassew, Sg, Tekalign, Tg, Tekle, Mg, Temsah, Mh, Teshale, My, Tessema, Ga, Thankappan, Kr, Thrift, Ag, Thurston, Gd, To, Qg, Torre, Ae, Tortajada-Girbés, M, Tovani-Palone, Mr, Tran, Bx, Tran, Kb, Troeger, Ce, Truelsen, Tc, Truong, Nt, Tsadik, Ag, Tuzcu, Em, Ukwaja, Kn, Undurraga, Ea, Updike, Rl, Uthman, Oa, Uzun, Sb, Valdez, Pr, Vasankari, Tj, Vladimirov, Sk, Vollset, Se, Wagner, Gr, Wallin, Mt, Walson, Jl, Wang, Yp, Wassie, Mm, Weintraub, Rg, Weldegwergs, Kg, Werkneh, Aa, West, Te, Whiteford, Ha, Wilner, Lb, Wolfe, Cda, Wu, Yc, Wyper, Gma, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sh, Yan, Ll, Yasin, Yj, Yentür, Gk, Yimer, Em, Yirsaw, Bd, Yoon, Sj, Younis, Mz, Zaman, Sb, Zeleke, Aj, Zenebe, Zm, Zhang, Al, Zuhlke, Lj, and Murray, Cjl.
Subjects: Adult, Male, Adolescent, national age-sex-specific mortality, UNITED-STATES, Global Health, Socioeconomic Factor, Global Burden of Disease, GBD, causes of death, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Cause of Death, PUBLIC-HEALTH PROBLEM, mortality, 282 causes global burden of disease, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, BARRIERS, DEMENTIA, Medicine (all), Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, TRENDS, PREVENTION, PREVALENCE, ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE, INDIVIDUALS, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Child, Preschool, REGISTRATION, Female, Human medicine, Human
Abstract: Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2018

5. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Murray, Christopher J L, Callender, Charlton S K H, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Srinivasan, Vinay, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdel-Rahman, Omar, Abdi, Alireza, Abdoli, Nasrin, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Aboyans, Victor, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adhikari, Tara Ballav, Adib, Mina G, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, Jose C, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayem, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akanda, Ali S, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akibu, Mohammed, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alebel, Animut, Aleman, Alicia V, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Ali, Raghib, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almasi, Ali, Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Ansari, Hossein, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Aremu, Olatunde, Areri, Habtamu Abera, Arian, Nicholas, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Assadi, Reza, Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari, Atique, Suleman, Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan, Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide F G A, Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Ayuk, Tambe B, Azzopardi, Peter S, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Banach, Maciej, Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Barrero, Lope H, Basaleem, Huda, Bassat, Quique, Basu, Arindam, Baune, Bernhard T, Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belachew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Saba Abraham, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L, Bello, Aminu K, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Bergeron, Gilles, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berman, Adam E, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S, Bertolacci, Gregory J, Beuran, Mircea, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Soumyadeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Birlik, Sait Mentes, Birungi, Charles, Biswas, Tuhin, Bizuneh, Hailemichael, Bleyer, Archie, Basara, Berrak Bora, Bosetti, Cristina, Boufous, Soufiane, Brady, Oliver J, Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi, Brainin, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Brewer, Jerry D, Briant, Paul Svitil, Britton, Gabrielle, Burstein, Roy, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar, Cano, Jorge, Car, Mate, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan J, Carvalho, Félix, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Castro, Franz, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Çavlin, Alanur, Cerin, Ester, Chalek, Julian, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chattopadhyay, Aparajita, Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chin, Ken Lee, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee-Young J, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christopher, Devasahayam J, Cicuttini, Flavia M, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Claro, Rafael M, 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Subjects: Adult, Male, Population Density, GBD, population, fertility, Adolescent, Medicine (all), Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Child, Preschool, General & Internal Medicine, Female, Human medicine, Mortality, Child, Population Growth, Birth Rate, Aged, Human, Maternal Age
Abstract: Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-cotnponent method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46.4-52.0). The TFR decreased from 4.7 livebirths (4.5-4.9) to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83.8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197-2% (193.3-200.8) since 1950, from 2.6 billion (2.5-2.6) to 7.6 billion (7.4-7.9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2.0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1.1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2.5% in 1963 to O7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2.7%. The global average age increased from 26.6 years in 1950 to 32.1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59.9% to 65.3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1.0 livebirths (95% UI 0. 9-1.2) in Cyprus to a high of 7.1 livebirths (6.8-7.4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0.08 livebirths (0.07-0.09) in South Korea to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (I F030; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0.3 livebirths (0.3-0-4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3.1 livebirths (3.0-3.2) in Niger. TF030 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017.33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2.0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2018

6. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Dicker, Daniel, Nguyen, Grant, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdel-Rahman, Omar, Abdi, Alireza, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdurahman, Ahmed Abdulahi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Aboyans, Victor, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Pawan, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adhikari, Tara Ballav, Adib, Mina G, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, Jose C, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh brahim, Ahmed, Sayem, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akanda, Ali S, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akibu, Mohammed, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alebel, Animut, Aleman, Alicia V, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Ali, Raghib, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine A, Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Anlay, Degefaye Zelalem, Ansari, Hossein, Ansariadi, Ansariadi, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Aremu, Olatunde, Areri, Habtamu Abera, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asadi-Lari, Mohsen, Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Assadi, Reza, Ataro, Zerihun, Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari, Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin, Atique, Suleman, Atre, Sachin R, Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan, Attia, Engi F, Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide F G A, Awasthi, Ashish, Awuah, Baffour, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayele, Henok Tadesse, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Ayuk, Tambe B, Azzopardi, Peter S, Azzopardi-Muscat, Natasha, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Banach, Maciej, Banstola, Amrit, Barac, Aleksandra, Barboza, Miguel A, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope H, Basaleem, Huda, Bassat, Quique, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belachew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Saba Abraham, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L, Bello, Aminu K, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berman, Adam E, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S, Bertolacci, Gregory J, Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhatia, Eesh, Bhatt, Samir, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Soumyadeeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Birlik, Sait Mentes, Birungi, Charles, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Bjørge, Tone, Bleyer, Archie, Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Bosetti, Cristina, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert, Brady, Oliver J, Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi, Brant, Luisa C, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Burke, Kristin E, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Callender, Charlton S K H, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar, Cano, Jorge, Car, Mate, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J, Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Félix, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Castro, Franz, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Çavlin, Alanur, Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Champs, Ana Paula, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chattopadhyay, Aparajita, Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chin, Ken Lee, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal, Choi, Jee-Young J, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J, Chung, Sheng-Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Claro, Rafael M, Cohen, Aaron J, Collado-Mateo, Daniel, Constantin, Maria-Magdalena, Conti, Sara, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Cousin, Ewerton, Criqui, Michael H, Cromwell, Elizabeth A, Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Crump, John A, Cucu, Alexandra, Cunningham, Matthew, Daba, Alemneh Kabeta, Dachew, Berihun Assefa, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dang, Anh Kim, Dargan, Paul I, Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Siddharth K, Das Gupta, Rajat, das Neves, José, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Weaver, Nicole Davis, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, Dayama, Anand, Courten, Barbora de, De la Hoz, Fernando Pio, De leo, Diego, De Neve, Jan-Walter, Degefa, Meaza Girma, Degenhardt, Louisa, Degfie, Tizta T, Deiparine, Selina, Dellavalle, Robert P, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Demtsu, Balem Betsu, Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda, Dhimal, Meghnath, Ding, Eric L, Djalalinia, Shirin, Doku, David Teye, Dolan, Kate A, Donnelly, Christl A, Dorsey, E Ray, Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Doyle, Kerrie E, Drake, Thomas M, Driscoll, Tim Robert, Dubey, Manisha, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Duncan, Bruce B, Duraes, Andre R, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Ebrahimpour, Soheil, Edessa, Dumessa, Edvardsson, David, Eggen, Anne Elise, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Elfaramawi, Mohammed, El-Khatib, Ziad, Ellingsen, Christian Lycke, Elyazar, Iqbal R F, Enayati, Ahmadali, Endries, Aman Yesuf Yesuf, Er, Benjamin, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esmaeili, Reza, Esteghamati, Alireza, Esteghamati, Sadaf, Fakhar, Mahdi, Fakhim, Hamed, Farag, Tamer, Faramarzi, Mahbobeh, Fareed, Mohammad, Farhadi, Farzaneh, Farid, Talha A, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá, Farioli, Andrea, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S, Farzadfar, Farshad, Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein, Fazeli, Mir Sohail, Feigin, Valery L, Feigl, Andrea B, Feizy, Fariba, Fentahun, Netsanet, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Fernandes, Joao C, Feyissa, Garumma Tolu, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Filip, Irina, Finegold, Samuel, Fischer, Florian, Flor, Luisa Sorio, Foigt, Nataliya A, Ford, John A, Foreman, Kyle J, Fornari, Carla, Frank, Tahvi D, Franklin, Richard Charles, Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fuller, John E, Fullman, Nancy, Fürst, Thomas, Furtado, João M, Futran, Neal D, Galan, Adriana, Gallus, Silvano, Gambashidze, Ketevan, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A, Gebre, Teshome, Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gelano, Tilayie Feto, Gelaw, Yalemzewod Assefa, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Gessner, Bradford D, Getachew, Sefonias, Gething, Peter W, Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul, Ghadimi, Reza, Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Ghiasvand, Hesam, Ghimire, Mamata, Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K, Gillum, Richard F, Giussani, Giorgia, Goenka, Shifalika, Goli, Srinivas, Gomez, Ricardo Santiago, Gomez-Cabrera, Mari Carmen, Gómez-Dantés, Hector, Gona, Philimon N, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Goto, Atsushi, Goulart, Alessandra C, Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia, Grada, Ayman, Grosso, Giuseppe, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Prakash C, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A, Hachinski, Vladimir, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagos, Tekleberhan B, Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamidi, Samer, Handal, Alexis J, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Haririan, Hamidreza, Haro, Josep Maria, Hasan, Mehedi, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Roderick J, Hay, Simon I, He, Yihua, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar, Hegazy, Mohamed I, Heibati, Behzad, Heidari, Mohsen, Hendrie, Delia, Henok, Andualem, Henry, Nathaniel J, Heredia-Pi, Ileana, Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Fatemeh, Heydarpour, Pouria, Heydarpour, Sousan, Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw, Hoek, Hans W, Hole, Michael K, Homaie Rad, Enayatollah, Hoogar, Praveen, Horino, Masako, Hosgood, H Dean, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J, Husseini, Abdullatif, Hussen, Mohammedaman Mama, Hutfless, Susan, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Igumbor, Ehimario U, Ikeda, Chad Thomas, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Isehunwa, Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Rajesh, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, James, Spencer L, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayaraman, Sudha, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S, Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Jonas, Jost B, Joshi, Ankur, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jungari, Suresh Banayya, Jürisson, Mikk, K, Madhanraj, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kahssay, Molla, Kalani, Rizwan, Kapil, Umesh, Karami, Manoochehr, Karami Matin, Behzad, Karch, André, Karema, Corine, Karimi, Narges, Karimi, Seyed M, Karimi-Sari, Hamidreza, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Katibeh, Marzieh, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazemeini, Hossein, Kazemi, Zhila, Karyani, Ali Kazemi, K C, Prakash, Kebede, Seifu, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemp, Grant Rodgers, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khajavi, Alireza, Khalid, Nauman, Khalil, Ibrahim A, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khang, Young-Ho, Khanna, Tripti, Khater, Mona M, Khatony, Alireza, Khazaie, Habibolah, Khoja, Abdullah T, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A, Kibret, Getiye D Dejenu, Kim, Cho-il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Jun Y, Kim, Young-Eun, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinra, Sanjay, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivimäki, Mika, Kleber, Marcus E, Knibbs, Luke D, Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kochhar, Sonali, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolola, Tufa, Kopec, Jacek A, Kosek, Margaret N, Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A, Krishan, Kewal, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kudom, Andreas A, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kumsa, Fekede Asefa, Kutz, Michael J, Lad, Sheetal D, Lafranconi, Alessandra, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lan, Qing, Langan, Sinéad M, Lansingh, Van C, Lansky, Sonia, Larson, Heidi Jane, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Lassi, Zohra S, Latifi, Arman, Lavados, Pablo M, Laxmaiah, Avula, Lazarus, Jeffrey V, Lebedev, Georgy, Lee, Paul H, Leigh, James, Leshargie, Cheru Tesema, Leta, Samson, Levi, Miriam, Li, Shanshan, Li, Yichong, Li, Xiaohong, Liang, Juan, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lim, Stephen S, Limenih, Miteku Andualem, Linn, Shai, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lonsdale, Chris, Lorch, Scott A, Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Tim C D, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Stefan, Mabika, Crispin, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Mackay, Mark T, Maddison, Emilie R, Maddison, Ralph, Madotto, Fabiana, Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan, Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed, Maghavani, Dhaval P, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malik, Manzoor Ahmad, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A, Manamo, Wondimu Ayele, Manda, Ana-Laura, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Marami, Dadi, Maravilla, Joemer C, Marcenes, Wagner, Marina, Shakhnazarova, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Martins, Sheila C O, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, März, Winfried, Marzan, Melvin B, Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa, Masiye, Felix, Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard, Maulik, Pallab K, Mazidi, Mohsen, McGrath, John J, McKee, Martin, Mehata, Suresh, Mehendale, Sanjay Madhav, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mehrotra, Ravi, Mehta, Kala M, Mehta, Varshil, Mekonen, Tesfa, Mekonnen, Tefera Chane, Meles, Hagazi Gebre, Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, Melese, Addisu, Melku, Mulugeta, Memiah, Peter T N, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Mengistu, Getnet, Mensah, George A, Mereta, Seid Tiku, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Mestrovic, Tomislav, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Miangotar, Yode, Miazgowski, Bartosz, Miazgowski, Tomasz, Miller, Ted R, Mini, G K, Mirica, Andreea, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M, Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Moazen, Babak, Moges, Nurilign Abebe, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadi, Moslem, Mohammadifard, Noushin, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, Maryam, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohammed, Mohammed A, Mohan, Viswanathan, Mokdad, Ali H, Molokhia, Mariam, Monasta, Lorenzo, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi, Mahmoudreza, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Moreno Velásquez, Ilais, Morgado-da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Douglas, Mosapour, Abbas, Moschos, Marilita M, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Muche, Achenef Asmamaw, Muchie, Kindie Fentahun, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Mukhopadhyay, Satinath, Mullany, Erin C, Muller, Kate, Murhekar, Manoj, Murphy, Tasha B, Murthy, G V S, Murthy, Srinivas, Musa, Jonah, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Mustafa, Ghulam, Muthupandian, Saravanan, Nachega, Jean B, Nagel, Gabriele, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Nahvijou, Azin, Naik, Gurudatta, Nair, Sanjeev, Najafi, Farid, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Nascimento, Bruno Ramos, Nawaz, Haseeb, Ncama, Busisiwe P, Neamati, Nahid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Neupane, Subas, Newton, Charles Richard James, Ngalesoni, Frida N, Ngunjiri, Josephine W, Nguyen, Ha Thu, Nguyen, Huong Thanh, Nguyen, Long Hoang, Nguyen, Michele, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nirayo, Yirga Legesse, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nixon, Molly R, Nolutshungu, Nomonde, Nomura, Shuhei, Norheim, Ole F, Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacques, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nsoesie, Elaine O, Nyasulu, Peter S, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Okoro, Anselm, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T, Olagunju, Tinuke O, Olivares, Pedro R, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Sok King, Opio, John Nelson, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Justin R, Ortiz, Alberto, Ota, Erika, Otstavnov, Stanislav S, Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel, P A, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana, Pakhale, Smita, Pakhare, Abhijit P, Pana, Adrian, Panda, Basant Kumar, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Pandey, Achyut Raj, Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai, Parisi, Andrea, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D H, Parsian, Hadi, Patel, Shanti, Patle, Ajay, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paudel, Deepak, Pearce, Neil, Peprah, Emmanuel K, Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M, Perez, Krystle M, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petri, William A, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Pigott, David M, Pillay, Julian David, Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pishgar, Farhad, Plass, Dietrich, Polinder, Suzanne, Pond, Constance Dimity, Popova, Svetlana, Postma, Maarten J, Pourmalek, Farshad, Pourshams, Akram, Poustchi, Hossein, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prakash, V, Prakash, Swayam, Prasad, Narayan, Qorbani, Mostafa, Quistberg, D Alex, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rafiei, Alireza, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rahman, Sajjad ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajati, Fatemeh, Rajsic, Sasa, Raju, Sree Bhushan, Ram, Usha, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Ranjan, Prabhat, Ranta, Anna, Rasella, Davide, Rawaf, David Laith, Rawaf, Salman, Ray, Sarah E, Razo-García, Christian, Rego, Maria Albertina Santiago, Rehm, Jürgen, Reiner, Robert C, Reinig, Nickolas, Reis, Cesar, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre M N, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Satar, Rezaeian, Shahab, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Riahi, Seyed Mohammad, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P, Riojas, Horacio, Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus, Roba, Kedir Teji, Robinson, Stephen R, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roshchin, Denis O, Rostami, Ali, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rubagotti, Enrico, Ruhago, George Mugambage, Saadat, Soheil, Sabde, Yogesh Damodar, Sachdev, Perminder S, Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi, Safari, Hosein, Safari, Yahya, Safari-Faramani, Roya, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, Haniye Sadat, Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza, Salam, Nasir, Salama, Joseph S, Salamati, Payman, Saldanha, Raphael de Freitas, Salimi, Yahya, Salimzadeh, Hamideh, Salz, Inbal, Sambala, Evanson Zondani, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores, Santos, Itamar S, Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi, Sardana, Mayank, Sarker, Abdur Razzaque, Sarrafzadegan, 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Subjects: Child mortality, Alnæmi, Dánartíðni, Heilsufar, GBD, Börn, Dauði, Almennar lyflækningar, Fullorðnir, General & Internal Medicine, parasitic diseases, Psychology, age-specific mortality, Estimating adult mortality, Medicine (all), HIV, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, General Medicine, All-cause mortality, humanities, Countries, Death, mortality, national, Sálfræði, Health, GBD, mortality, Human medicine, Trends
Abstract: The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with licence no. SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data., Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing., Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845), and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163).
Published: 2018

7. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author: Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Rob E. Dorrington, Belinda K Lloyd, Elisabete Weiderpass, Kovin Naidoo, Leslie T. Cooper, Sandra Nolte, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Mohammad A. AlMazroa, R. Kumar, Xiaofeng Liang, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Kazem Rahimi, Sanjay Basu, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, André Karch, Dipan Bose, Vivekanand Jha, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Kaire Innos, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Itamar S. Santos, Anwar Rafay, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Tommi Vasankari, Nana Kwaku Mainoo, Saleem M Rana, Wagner Marcenes, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Rana J. Asghar, Lela Sturua, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Corine Karema, Charles R. Newton, Uche S. Uchendu, Jongmin Lee, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Harish Chander Gugnani, Kaushalendra Kumar, Reza Assadi, Ibrahim Abubakar, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Megan Coggeshall, Timothy M. Wolock, Ronny Westerman, Samath D Dharmaratne, Katya Anne Shackelford, Anders Larsson, Jeffrey A. Towbin, Jixiang Ma, Lynne Gaffikin, Konstantin Kazanjan, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Yichong Li, Felix Sayinzoga, Daniel Dicker, Philimon Gona, Maurice Giroud, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, Lorenzo Monasta, Chantal Huynh, Abdullatif Husseini, Ted R. Miller, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, D. Alex Quistberg, Justin Beardsley, Majed Asad, Uʇur Dilmen, Alaa Badawi, Hsien-Ho Lin, Haidong Kan, Vinod K. Paul, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, James Leigh, Xiao Nong Zou, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Valentina Arsić Arsenijević, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Murugesan Raju, Stephanie J. London, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Young-Ho Khang, Knud Juel, Mohsen Naghavi, Rasmus Havmoeller, Gelin Xu, Semaw Ferede Abera, Devina Nand, Norito Kawakami, Neil Pearce, Elisabeth Barboza França, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ketevan Goginashvili, Vegard Skirbekk, Neeraj Bedi, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Andrew H. Kemp, H. Dean Hosgood, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Konrad Pesudovs, Linhong Wang, Xiao Rong Wang, Alan D. Lopez, Ademola Lukman Adelekan, Joshua A. Salomon, Walter Mendoza, Aref A. Bin Abdulhak, Ivy Shiue, G Anil Kumar, Yuichiro Yano, Luke D. Knibbs, Jung-Chen Chang, Yousef Khader, Caitlyn Steiner, Selen Begüm Uzun, Luciano A. Sposato, Gabrielle deVeber, Raghib Ali, Andre Pascal Kengne, Chakib Nejjari, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Tania Georgina Sánchez Pimienta, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Hilda L Harb, Ali H. Mokdad, Edward J Mills, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Xiaohong Li, Luke Nyakarahuka, Diego De Leo, Rashmi Gupta, Robert G. Weintraub, Tim Driscoll, Sun Ha Jee, Carolina Maria Teixeira, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Palwasha Anwari, Daniel Pope, Hassan Amini, Jae-Hyun Park, Saad B. Omer, Eric L. Ding, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Juan Liang, Tara Templin, Arindam Basu, Farshad Farzadfar, Yang Yang, Xuan Che, Scott Weichenthal, Jeyaraj D Pandian, David L. Tirschwell, Adrian Davis, Hilton Lam, Feng Tan, Stephen S Lim, Soewarta Kosen, Atsushi Goto, Ratilal Lalloo, Yanping Wang, Glen Mola, Paulo A. Lotufo, Dhruv S. Kazi, Jose C. Adsuar, Amany H Refaat, Ruben Castro, Gene F. Kwan, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Costas A. Christophi, Theo Vos, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Guilherme V. Polanczyk, Jed D. Blore, Azmeraw T. Amare, Kyle R. Heuton, Walid Ammar, Louisa Degenhardt, Andrew Vallely, Guohong Jiang, Ricky Leung, Jasvinder A. Singh, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, A Artaman, Steven E. Lipshultz, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Mark J. Nieuwenhuijsen, John Q. Wong, Manami Inoue, Coen H. Van Gool, James D. Wilkinson, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Manuela Mendonca Felicio, Farshad Pourmalek, Boris I. Pavlin, Karen Sliwa, Robert G. Nelson, Tom Achoki, Edmond K. Kabagambe, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Christopher J L Murray, In-Hwan Oh, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson, Ulrich O Mueller, Austin E Schumacher, Edson Serván-Mori, Berrak Bora Basara, Simon I. Hay, Anil Kaul, Foad Abd-Allah, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Kim Yun Jin, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Mall Leinsalu, Sergei Petrovich Ermakov, Marek Majdan, Ileana B. Heredia Pi, Christina Papachristou, Scott B. Patten, Rajeev Gupta, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Mustafa Z. Younis, Kenji Shibuya, Graça Maria Ferreira De Lima, Andrea P. Silva, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Anand Dayama, Eiman Jahangir, Stefan Ma, Karen M. Tabb, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Mazin J. Al Kahbouri, Nadim E. Karam, Jun Zhu, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Dinorah González-Castell, Diego Gonzalez-Medina, Aliya Naheed, Ryan M Barber, Salvador Villalpando, Yang Liu, Chanda Kulkarni, Vinay Nangia, Haidong Wang, Yongmei Li, Rosario Cárdenas, Randah R. Hamadeh, Suzanne Polinder, Van C. Lansingh, François Alla, Max Petzold, Bryan L. Sykes, Ubai Alsharif, Chuanhua Yu, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Graeme J. Hankey, Mouhanad Hammami, Iuri da Costa Leite, Dickens Akena, Rintaro Mori, Alanur Çavlin, Maia Kereselidze, Jonathan de la Cruz Monis, Deena Alasfoor, Taavi Lai, Eric Y. Tenkorang, Cyrus Cooper, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Dan Poenaru, Veena S. Kulkarni, Naohiro Yonemoto, Elizabeth Glaser, Sergey Soshnikov, Ziad A. Memish, Paul N. Jensen, Fabiola Mejía-Rodríguez, Ana C. Garcia, Rakhi Dandona, Emilie Agardh, Katherine B Gibney, Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado, Michelle L. Bell, David M. Pereira, Muluemebet Abera Wordofa, Samantha M. Colquhoun, Elena Alvarez, Stephen G. Waller, Ketevan Gambashidze, Eduardo Bernabé, Rafael Lozano, Damian G Hoy, Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris, Hebe N. Gouda, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Zanfina Ademi, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Denis Nash, Dima M. Qato, Luca Ronfani, Nobhojit Roy, Donald H. Silberberg, Monica S. Vavilala, Lydia S. Atkins, Hans W. Hoek, Muluken Dessalegn, David C. Schwebel, Christopher C. Mapoma, Jost B. Jonas, Tolesa Bekele, Lalit Dandona, Borja del Pozo-Cruz, Sumeet S. Chugh, Johan Ärnlöv, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Ami R. Moore, Marie Ng, Maigeng Zhou, Samia Alhabib, Massimo Cirillo, Soraya Seedat, Paul S. F. Yip, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Kebede Deribe, John Nelson Opio, Peter J. Allen, Marina Shakh-Nazarova, Bach Xuan Tran, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Yingfeng Zheng, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez, Yong Zhao, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Bulat Idrisov, Alireza Esteghamati, Seok Jun Yoon, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Coggeshall, Megan S., Shackelford, Katya A., Steiner, Caitlyn, Heuton, Kyle R., Gonzalez-Medina, Diego, Barber, Ryan, Huynh, Chantal, Dicker, Daniel, Templin, Tara, Wolock, Timothy M., Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C., Agardh, Emilie E., Akena, Dicken, Alasfoor, Deena, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J., Alla, Françoi, Allen, Peter J., Almazroa, Mohammad A., Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A., Amare, Azmeraw T., Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Antonio, Carl A.T., Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asad, Majed Masoud, Asghar, Rana J., Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S., Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L., Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku J., Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Blore, Jed D., Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Breitborde, Nichola, Cárdenas, Rosario, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Chang, Jung-Chen, Che, Xuan, Christophi, Costas A., Chugh, Sumeet S., Cirillo, Massimo, Colquhoun, Samantha M., Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyru, Da Costa Leite, Iuri, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Degenhardt, Louisa, De Leo, Diego, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Dessalegn, Muluken, Deveber, Gabrielle A., Dharmaratne, Samath D., Dilmen, Uʇur, Ding, Eric L., Dorrington, Rob E., Driscoll, Tim R., Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Farzadfar, Farshad, Felicio, Manuela Mendonca, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., França, Elisabeth B., Gaffikin, Lynne, Gambashidze, Ketevan, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Garcia, Ana C., Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gibney, Katherine B., Giroud, Maurice, Glaser, Elizabeth L., Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, González-Castell, Dinorah, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N., Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J., Harb, Hilda L., Havmoeller, Rasmu, Hay, Simon I., Pi, Ileana B. Heredia, Hoek, Hans W., Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G., Husseini, Abdullatif, Idrisov, Bulat T., Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahangir, Eiman, Jee, Sun Ha, Jensen, Paul N., Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B., Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kan, Haidong, Karam, Nadim E., Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazanjan, Konstantin, Kazi, Dhruv S., Kemp, Andrew H., Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kulkarni, Veena S., Kumar, G. Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B., Kwan, Gene, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lansingh, Van C., Larsson, Ander, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, Jame, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Xiaohong, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Liang, Juan, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lim, Stephen S., Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E., Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K., London, Stephanie J., Lotufo, Paulo A., Ma, Jixiang, Ma, Stefan, Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Mainoo, Nana Kwaku, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Marcenes, Wagner, Marzan, Melvin Barriento, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mills, Edward J., Mokdad, Ali H., Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, De La Cruz Monis, Jonathan, Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez, Moore, Ami R., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Mori, Rintaro, Mueller, Ulrich O., Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S., Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Nash, Deni, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G., Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R., Ng, Marie, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J., Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F., Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O., Omer, Saad B., Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D., Papachristou, Christina, Park, Jae-Hyun, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J., Patten, Scott B., Paul, Vinod K., Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M., Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Poenaru, Dan, Polanczyk, Guilherme V., Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quistberg, D. Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Ur Rahman, Sajjad, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M., Refaat, Amany, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Pimienta, Tania Georgina Sánchez, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Salomon, Joshua A., Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S., Sawhney, Monika, Sayinzoga, Felix, Schneider, Ione J.C., Schumacher, Austin, Schwebel, David C., Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Servan-Mori, Edson E., Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H., Silva, Andrea P., Singh, Jasvinder A., Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S., Sposato, Luciano A., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stroumpoulis, Konstantino, Sturua, Lela, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tan, Feng, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Tirschwell, David L., Towbin, Jeffrey A., Tran, Bach X., Tsilimbaris, Miltiadi, Uchendu, Uche S., Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Undurraga, Eduardo A., Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vallely, Andrew J., Van Gool, Coen H., Vasankari, Tommi J., Vavilala, Monica S., Venketasubramanian, N., Villalpando, Salvador, Violante, Francesco S., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vos, Theo, Waller, Stephen, Wang, Haidong, Wang, Linhong, Wang, Xiao Rong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D., Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q., Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C., Yano, Yuichiro, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z., Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D., Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J.L., Lozano, Rafael, Kassebaum, Nj, Bertozzi-Villa, A, Coggeshall, M, Shackelford, Ka, Steiner, C, Heuton, Kr, Gonzalez-Medina, D, Barber, R, Huynh, C, Dicker, D, Templin, T, Wolock, Tm, Ozgoren, Aa, Abd-Allah, F, Abera, Sf, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Adou, Ak, Adsuar, Jc, Agardh, Ee, Akena, D, Alasfoor, D, Alemu, Za, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Al Kahbouri, Mj, Alla, F, Allen, Pj, Almazroa, Ma, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzmán, N, Amankwaa, Aa, Amare, At, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Antonio, Ca, Anwari, P, Arnlöv, J, Arsenijevic, V, Artaman, A, Asad, Mm, Asghar, Rj, Assadi, R, Atkins, L, Badawi, A, Balakrishnan, K, Basu, A, Basu, S, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Bekele, T, Bell, Ml, Bernabe, E, Beyene, Tj, Bhutta, Z, Bin Abdulhak, A, Blore, J, Basara, Bb, Bose, D, Breitborde, N, Cárdenas, R, Castañeda-Orjuela, Ca, Castro, Re, Catalá-López, F, Cavlin, A, Chang, Jc, Che, X, Christophi, Ca, Chugh, S, Cirillo, M, Colquhoun, Sm, Cooper, Lt, Cooper, C, da Costa Leite, I, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Davis, A, Dayama, A, Degenhardt, L, De Leo, D, Del Pozo-Cruz, B, Deribe, K, Dessalegn, M, Deveber, Ga, Dharmaratne, Sd, Dilmen, U, Ding, El, Dorrington, Re, Driscoll, Tr, Ermakov, Sp, Esteghamati, A, Faraon, Ej, Farzadfar, F, Felicio, Mm, Fereshtehnejad, Sm, de Lima, Gm, Forouzanfar, Mh, França, Eb, Gaffikin, L, Gambashidze, K, Gankpé, Fg, Garcia, Ac, Geleijnse, Jm, Gibney, Kb, Giroud, M, Glaser, El, Goginashvili, K, Gona, P, González-Castell, D, Goto, A, Gouda, Hn, Gugnani, Hc, Gupta, R, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hamadeh, Rr, Hammami, M, Hankey, Gj, Harb, Hl, Havmoeller, R, Hay, S, Pi, Ib, Hoek, Hw, Hosgood, Hd, Hoy, Dg, Husseini, A, Idrisov, Bt, Innos, K, Inoue, M, Jacobsen, Kh, Jahangir, E, Jee, Sh, Jensen, Pn, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Juel, K, Kabagambe, Ek, Kan, H, Karam, Ne, Karch, A, Karema, Ck, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazanjan, K, Kazi, D, Kemp, Ag, Kengne, Ap, Kereselidze, M, Khader, Y, Khalifa, Se, Khan, Ea, Khang, Yh, Knibbs, L, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Defo, Bk, Kulkarni, C, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, Ga, Kumar, K, Kumar, Rb, Kwan, G, Lai, T, Lalloo, R, Lam, H, Lansingh, Vc, Larsson, A, Lee, Jt, Leigh, J, Leinsalu, M, Leung, R, Li, X, Li, Y, Liang, J, Liang, X, Lim, S, Lin, Hh, Lipshultz, Se, Liu, S, Liu, Y, Lloyd, Bk, London, Sj, Lotufo, Pa, Ma, J, Ma, S, Machado, Vm, Mainoo, Nk, Majdan, M, Mapoma, Cc, Marcenes, W, Marzan, Mb, Mason-Jones, Aj, Mehndiratta, Mm, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Memish, Za, Mendoza, W, Miller, Tr, Mills, Ej, Mokdad, Ah, Mola, Gl, Monasta, L, de la Cruz Monis, J, Hernandez, Jc, Moore, Ar, Mori, R, Mueller, Uo, Mukaigawara, M, Naheed, A, Naidoo, K, Nand, D, Nangia, V, Nash, D, Nejjari, C, Nelson, Rg, Neupane, Sp, Newton, Cr, Ng, M, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mj, Nisar, Mi, Nolte, S, Norheim, Of, Nyakarahuka, L, Oh, Ih, Ohkubo, T, Olusanya, Bo, Omer, Sb, Opio, Jn, Orisakwe, Oe, Pandian, Jd, Papachristou, C, Park, Jh, Caicedo, Aj, Patten, Sb, Paul, Vk, Pavlin, Bi, Pearce, N, Pereira, Dm, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Poenaru, D, Polanczyk, Gv, Polinder, S, Pope, D, Pourmalek, F, Qato, D, Quistberg, Da, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Ur Rahman, S, Raju, M, Rana, Sm, Refaat, A, Ronfani, L, Roy, N, Pimienta, Tg, Sahraian, Ma, Salomon, J, Sampson, U, Santos, I, Sawhney, M, Sayinzoga, F, Schneider, Ij, Schumacher, A, Schwebel, Dc, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, Sg, Servan-Mori, Ee, Shakh-Nazarova, M, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Shin, Hh, Shiue, I, Sigfusdottir, Id, Silberberg, Dh, Silva, Ap, Singh, Ja, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soshnikov, S, Sposato, La, Sreeramareddy, Ct, Stroumpoulis, K, Sturua, L, Sykes, Bl, Tabb, Km, Talongwa, Rt, Tan, F, Teixeira, Cm, Tenkorang, Ey, Terkawi, A, Thorne-Lyman, Al, Tirschwell, Dl, Towbin, Ja, Tran, Bx, Tsilimbaris, M, Uchendu, U, Ukwaja, Kn, Undurraga, Ea, Uzun, Sb, Vallely, Aj, van Gool, Ch, Vasankari, Tj, Vavilala, M, Venketasubramanian, N, Villalpando, S, Violante, F, Vlassov, Vv, Vos, T, Waller, S, Wang, H, Wang, L, Wang, Sx, Wang, Y, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, Rg, Westerman, R, Wilkinson, Jd, Woldeyohannes, Sm, Wong, Jq, Wordofa, Ma, Xu, G, Yang, Yc, Yano, Y, Yentur, Gk, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, Sj, Younis, Mz, Yu, C, Jin, Ky, El Sayed Zaki, M, Zhao, Y, Zheng, Y, Zhou, M, Zhu, J, Zou, Xn, Lopez, Ad, Naghavi, M, Murray, Cj, Lozano, R, Cell biology, Epidemiology, Public Health, Erasmus MC other, Cardiothoracic Surgery, and Pathology
Subjects: Pediatrics, Time Factors, Nutrition and Disease, hiv-infection, immunodeficiency virus-1 infection, peripartum cardiomyopathy, Poison control, HIV Infections, IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS-1 INFECTION, Socioeconomic Factor, Global Health, 0302 clinical medicine, PERIPARTUM CARDIOMYOPATHY, pregnancy-related mortality, Risk Factors, Pregnancy, Voeding en Ziekte, Cause of Death, Global health, HIV Infection, 030212 general & internal medicine, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, 10. No inequality, Cause of death, 030219 obstetrics & reproductive medicine, south-africa, Medicine (all), 1. No poverty, WOMEN, PREGNANCY-RELATED MORTALITY, health initiatives, General Medicine, SOUTH-AFRICA, 3. Good health, Maternal Mortality, World Health, CHILD SURVIVAL, Female, Maternal death, women, Human, medicine.medical_specialty, Time Factor, DEATHS, child survival, Article, adult mortality, 03 medical and health sciences, Age Distribution, HEALTH INITIATIVES, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, HIV-INFECTION, ADULT MORTALITY, Injury prevention, medicine, Organizational Objectives, Organizational Objective, Humans, VLAG, Models, Statistical, business.industry, Risk Factor, medicine.disease, deaths, Standardized mortality ratio, Socioeconomic Factors, Relative risk, Pregnancy Complications, Infectiou, business, Demography
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2016

8. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author: Karen Sliwa, Xiaofeng Liang, Vivekanand Jha, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Rakhi Dandona, Gonghuan Yang, Xuan Che, Soewarta Kosen, Sergei Petrovich Ermakov, Ted R. Miller, Samath D Dharmaratne, Philimon Gona, Sergey Soshnikov, Atsushi Goto, Costas A. Christophi, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Elena Alvarez, Yanping Wang, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Giancarlo Logroscino, Massimo Cirillo, Knud Juel, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Stefan Ma, Samaya Ismayilova, Karen Fern Greenwell, Michelle L. Bell, Saad B. Omer, Ademola Lukman Adelekan, Joshua A. Salomon, Dhruv S. Kazi, Jed D. Blore, Walid Ammar, Carly E Levitz, Kovin Naidoo, Solveig A. Cunningham, Stephen G. Waller, Anand Dayama, James D. Wilkinson, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Meghan D. Mooney, Mall Leinsalu, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Paul S. F. Yip, Anders Larsson, Abbas Ali Mahdi, Hideaki Toyoshima, Guohong Jiang, Xia Wan, Chuanhua Yu, Soufiane Boufous, Ivy Shiue, Bulat Idrisov, Qing Lan, Chelsea A. Liddell, Austin E Schumacher, Valeria Caso, Nigel Bruce, Paulo A. Lotufo, Ibrahim Abubakar, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Luke Nyakarahuka, Edward J Mills, Iuri da Costa Leite, Semaw Ferede Abera, Ana C. Garcia, Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Matthew M Coates, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Bradford D. Gessner, Kebede Deribe, Tommi Vasankari, Logan Sandar, Kenji Shibuya, Karen M. Tabb, Troy Jacobs, Christopher J L Murray, Chakib Nejjari, Katherine T. Lofgren, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Haidong Wang, Joanna Moschandreas, Raimundas Lunevicius, Nataliya Foigt, Rashmi Gupta, Ziad A. Memish, Victoria Pillay-van Wyk, Randah R. Hamadeh, Azmeraw T. Amare, Lalit Dandona, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson, Monika Sawhney, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Farhad Islami, Palwasha Anwari, Mustafa Z. Younis, Amitava Banerjee, Ruben Castro, David O. Carpenter, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Taavi Lai, Yousef Khader, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Atte Meretoja, Zanfina Ademi, Ivo Rakovac, Yang Yang, Hilda L Harb, Daniel Pope, Jun She, Yichong Li, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Adrian Davis, Stein Emil Vollset, Andre Pascal Kengne, Henry Apfel, Mark J. Nieuwenhuijsen, John J. McGrath, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Jonas Minet Kinge, Elisabete Weiderpass, Rajiv Chowdhury, Damian G Hoy, Jürgen C Schmidt, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Harish Chander Gugnani, Hywel C Williams, Karen Edmond, Peter J. Allen, Marina Shakh-Nazarova, Tom Achoki, Edmond K. Kabagambe, Naohiro Yonemoto, Jun Zhu, Simon I. Hay, Karen J. Courville, Ketevan Goginashvili, Theo Vos, Kim Yun Jin, Kawkab Shishani, Lorenzo Monasta, H. Dean Hosgood, Uʇur Dilmen, Marcella Montico, Shankuan Zhu, Ami R. Moore, Marie Ng, Maigeng Zhou, Hebe N. Gouda, Linh N Bui, Sanjay Basu, Mouhanad Hammami, Mohammad T Mashal, Bryan K. Phillips, Marissa Iannarone, Ronan A Lyons, Young-Ho Khang, Robert G. Weintraub, Luca Ronfani, Daniel Kim, Alanur Çavlin, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ronny Westerman, Maia Kereselidze, Itamar S. Santos, Reza Assadi, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Carolina Maria Teixeira, Berrak Bora Basara, David Rojas-Rueda, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Kaushalendra Kumar, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Neeraj Bedi, Robert Quentin Reilly, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Scott Weichenthal, Mark A. Green, Selen Begüm Uzun, Mukesh Dherani, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Majed Asad, Jasvinder A. Singh, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Eric L. Ding, Jost B. Jonas, Tolesa Bekele, Alan J Thomson, Steven E. Lipshultz, Rosario Cárdenas, Sajjad Ur Rahman, George A. Mensah, Jongmin Lee, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Magdalena M. Muszyńska, Ulrich O Mueller, Stephen S Lim, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alan D. Lopez, Luciano A. Sposato, G Anil Kumar, Farshad Pourmalek, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, K.M. Venkat Narayan, William Msemburi, Ting Wu Chuang, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Saleem M Rana, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Mohsen Naghavi, Vegard Skirbekk, Walter Mendoza, Ali H. Mokdad, Yohannes Kinfu, Jean de Dieu Ngirabega, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Parfait Uwaliraye, Tasara T. Mazorodze, Farshad Farzadfar, Rob E. Dorrington, Mohammad A. AlMazroa, R. Kumar, Lesley Rushton, Wang, H, Liddell, Ca, Coates, Mm, Mooney, Md, Levitz, Ce, Schumacher, Ae, Apfel, H, Iannarone, M, Phillips, B, Lofgren, Kt, Sandar, L, Dorrington, Re, Rakovac, I, Jacobs, Ta, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Zhu, J, Yang, G, Wang, Y, Liu, S, Li, Y, Ozgoren, Aa, Abera, Sf, Abubakar, I, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Alemu, Za, Allen, Pj, Almazroa, Ma, Alvarez, E, Amankwaa, Aa, Amare, At, Ammar, W, Anwari, P, Cunningham, Sa, Asad, Mm, Assadi, R, Banerjee, A, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bekele, T, Bell, Ml, Bhutta, Z, Blore, J, Basara, Bb, Boufous, S, Breitborde, N, Bruce, Ng, Bui, Ln, Carapetis, Jr, Cárdenas, R, Carpenter, Do, Caso, V, Castro, Re, Catalá Lopéz, F, Cavlin, A, Che, X, Chiang, Pp, Chowdhury, R, Christophi, Ca, Chuang, Tw, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, I, Courville, Kj, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Davis, A, Dayama, A, Deribe, K, Dharmaratne, Sd, Dherani, Mk, Dilmen, U, Ding, El, Edmond, Km, Ermakov, Sp, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, Sm, Fijabi, Do, Foigt, N, Forouzanfar, Mh, Garcia, Ac, Geleijnse, Jm, Gessner, Bd, Goginashvili, K, Gona, P, Goto, A, Gouda, Hn, Green, Ma, Greenwell, Kf, Gugnani, Hc, Gupta, R, Hamadeh, Rr, Hammami, M, Harb, Hl, Hay, S, Hedayati, Mt, Hosgood, Hd, Hoy, Dg, Idrisov, Bt, Islami, F, Ismayilova, S, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jonas, Jb, Juel, K, Kabagambe, Ek, Kazi, D, Kengne, Ap, Kereselidze, M, Khader, Y, Khalifa, Se, Khang, Yh, Kim, D, Kinfu, Y, Kinge, Jm, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Defo, Bk, Kumar, Ga, Kumar, K, Kumar, Rb, Lai, T, Lan, Q, Larsson, A, Lee, Jt, Leinsalu, M, Lim, S, Lipshultz, Se, Logroscino, G, Lotufo, Pa, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, Ra, Ma, S, Mahdi, Aa, Marzan, Mb, Mashal, Mt, Mazorodze, Tt, Mcgrath, Jj, Memish, Za, Mendoza, W, Mensah, Ga, Meretoja, A, Miller, Tr, Mills, Ej, Mohammad, Ka, Mokdad, Ah, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Moore, Ar, Moschandreas, J, Msemburi, Wt, Mueller, Uo, Muszynska, Mm, Naghavi, M, Naidoo, K, Narayan, Kv, Nejjari, C, Ng, M, de Dieu Ngirabega, J, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mj, Nyakarahuka, L, Ohkubo, T, Omer, Sb, Caicedo, Aj, Wyk, Vp, Pope, D, Prabhakaran, D, Rahman, Su, Rana, Sm, Reilly, Rq, Rojas Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Rushton, L, Saeedi, My, Salomon, J, Sampson, U, Santos, I, Sawhney, M, Schmidt, Jc, Shakh Nazarova, M, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Shin, Hh, Shishani, K, Shiue, I, Sigfusdottir, Id, Singh, Ja, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soshnikov, S, Sposato, La, Stathopoulou, Vk, Stroumpoulis, K, Tabb, Km, Talongwa, Rt, Teixeira, Cm, Terkawi, A, Thomson, Aj, Thorne Lyman, Al, Toyoshima, H, Dimbuene, Zt, Uwaliraye, P, Uzun, Sb, Vasankari, Tj, Vasconcelos, Am, Vlassov, Vv, Vollset, Se, Vos, T, Waller, S, Wan, X, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, Rg, Westerman, R, Wilkinson, Jd, Williams, Hc, Yang, Yc, Yentur, Gk, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, M, Yu, C, Jin, Ky, El Sayed Zaki, M, Zhu, S, Lopez, Ad, and Murray, C. J.
Subjects: trends, Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, Nutrition and Disease, democracy, Developing country, coverage, VDP::Medisinske fag: 700::Helsefag: 800::Epidemiologi medisinsk og odontologisk statistikk: 803, millennium development goals, Global Health, survival, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, 030225 pediatrics, Voeding en Ziekte, Infant Mortality, Global health, Humans, Organizational Objectives, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, 10. No inequality, VLAG, business.industry, Mortality rate, Infant, Newborn, 1. No poverty, Infant, health, General Medicine, Millennium Development Goals, Infant mortality, maternal education, 3. Good health, Secular variation, Child mortality, Socioeconomic Factors, income countries, Child, Preschool, Child Mortality, developing-countries, VDP::Midical sciences: 700::Health sciences: 800::Epidemiology, medical and dental statistics: 803, International development, business, Demography, child-mortality
Abstract: Summary Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.
Published: 2014

9. Factors affecting haemoglobin dynamics in African children with acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria treated with single low-dose primaquine or placebo.

Author: Onyamboko MA, Olupot-Olupot P, Were W, Namayanja C, Onyas P, Titin H, Baseke J, Muhindo R, Kayembe DK, Ndjowo PO, Basara BB, Okalebo CB, Williams TN, Uyoga S, Taya C, Bamisaiye A, Fanello C, Maitland K, Day NPJ, Taylor WRJ, and Mukaka M
Subjects: Male, Female, Humans, Child, Child, Preschool, Primaquine, Artemether, Lumefantrine Drug Combination therapeutic use, Artemether therapeutic use, Hemoglobins analysis, Plasmodium falciparum, Antimalarials adverse effects, alpha-Thalassemia drug therapy, Malaria, Falciparum drug therapy, Malaria, Falciparum chemically induced, Glucosephosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency
Abstract: Background: Single low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ) effectively blocks the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but anxiety remains regarding its haemolytic potential in patients with glucose-6-phopshate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. We, therefore, examined the independent effects of several factors on haemoglobin (Hb) dynamics in falciparum-infected children with a particular interest in SLDPQ and G6PD status., Methods: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, safety trial was conducted in Congolese and Ugandan children aged 6 months-11 years with acute uncomplicated P. falciparum and day (D) 0 Hbs ≥ 6 g/dL who were treated with age-dosed SLDPQ/placebo and weight-dosed artemether lumefantrine (AL) or dihydroartemisinin piperaquine (DHAPP). Genotyping defined G6PD (G6PD c.202T allele), haemoglobin S (HbS), and α-thalassaemia status. Multivariable linear and logistic regression assessed factor independence for continuous Hb parameters and Hb recovery (D42 Hb > D0 Hb), respectively., Results: One thousand one hundred thirty-seven children, whose median age was 5 years, were randomised to receive: AL + SLDPQ (n = 286), AL + placebo (286), DHAPP + SLDPQ (283), and DHAPP + placebo (282). By G6PD status, 284 were G6PD deficient (239 hemizygous males, 45 homozygous females), 119 were heterozygous females, 418 and 299 were normal males and females, respectively, and 17 were of unknown status. The mean D0 Hb was 10.6 (SD 1.6) g/dL and was lower in younger children with longer illnesses, lower mid-upper arm circumferences, splenomegaly, and α-thalassaemia trait, who were either G6PDd or heterozygous females. The initial fractional fall in Hb was greater in younger children with higher D0 Hbs and D0 parasitaemias and longer illnesses but less in sickle cell trait. Older G6PDd children with lower starting Hbs and greater factional falls were more likely to achieve Hb recovery, whilst lower D42 Hb concentrations were associated with younger G6PD normal children with lower fractional falls, sickle cell disease, α-thalassaemia silent carrier and trait, and late treatment failures. Ten blood transfusions were given in the first week (5 SLDPQ, 5 placebo)., Conclusions: In these falciparum-infected African children, posttreatment Hb changes were unaffected by SLDPQ, and G6PDd patients had favourable posttreatment Hb changes and a higher probability of Hb recovery. These reassuring findings support SLDPQ deployment without G6PD screening in Africa., Trial Registration: The trial is registered at ISRCTN 11594437., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)
Published: 2023
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10. Pharmacokinetics of single low dose primaquine in Ugandan and Congolese children with falciparum malaria.

Author: Mukaka M, Onyamboko MA, Olupot-Olupot P, Peerawaranun P, Suwannasin K, Pagornrat W, Kouhathong J, Madmanee W, Were W, Namayanja C, Onyas P, Titin H, Baseke J, Muhindo R, Kayembe DK, Ndjowo PO, Basara BB, Bongo GS, Okalebo CB, Abongo G, Uyoga S, Williams TN, Taya C, Dhorda M, Dondorp AM, Waithira N, Imwong M, Maitland K, Fanello C, Day NPJ, Tarning J, White NJ, and Taylor WRJ
Subjects: Child, Humans, Child, Preschool, Primaquine pharmacokinetics, Primaquine therapeutic use, Uganda, Cytochrome P-450 CYP2D6 therapeutic use, Chromatography, Liquid, Artemether therapeutic use, Artemether, Lumefantrine Drug Combination therapeutic use, Tandem Mass Spectrometry, Plasmodium falciparum, Hemoglobins, Antimalarials, Malaria, Falciparum drug therapy, Artemisinins
Abstract: Background: There are no pharmacokinetic data of single low dose primaquine (SLDPQ) as transmission blocking in African children with acute Plasmodium falciparum and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd)., Methods: Primaquine pharmacokinetics of age-dosed SLDPQ (shown previously to be gametocytocidal with similar tolerability as placebo) were characterised in falciparum-infected Ugandan and Congolese children aged 6 months to 11 years, treated on admission with standard 3-day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine or artemether-lumefantrine plus SLDPQ: 6 m-<1 y: 1.25 mg, 1-5 y: 2.5 mg, 6-9 y: 5 mg, 10-11 y: 7.5 mg. LC-MS/MS-measured plasma primaquine and carboxyprimaquine (baseline, 1, 1.5, 2, 4, 8, 12, 24 h) were analysed by noncompartmental analysis. Multivariable linear regression modelled associations between covariates, including cytochrome-P450 2D6 metaboliser status, and outcomes., Findings: 258 children (median age 5 [interquartile range (IQR) 3-7]) were sampled; 8 (3.1%) with early vomiting were excluded. Primaquine doses of 0.10-0.40 (median 0.21, IQR 0.16-0.25) mg base/kg resulted in primaquine maximum plasma concentrations (Cmax) of 2.3-447 (median 103.0, IQR 72.1-140.0) ng/mL between 1.0 and 8.0 (median 2) hours (T max ) and median areas under the drug concentration curves (AUC 0-last ) 730.2 (6 m-<1 y, n = 12), 582.8 (1-5 y, n = 126), 871.1 (6-9 y, n = 80), and 931.0 (10-11 y, n = 32) ng∗h/mL. Median elimination half-live (T½) was 4.7 (IQR 3.8-5.6) hours. Primaquine clearance/kg peaked at 18 months, plateauing at 4 y. Increasing CYP2D6 metaboliser activity score [poor (3/250), intermediate (52/250), normal (150/250), ultrarapid (5/250), indeterminate (40/250)] and baseline haemoglobin were significantly associated with a lower primaquine AUC 0-last ,which increased with increasing mg/kg dose and age but was independent of the artemisinin treatment used., Interpretation: Age-dosed SLDPQ resulted in variable primaquine exposure that depended on bodyweight-adjusted dose, age, baseline haemoglobin and CYP2D6 metaboliser status, but not on dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine or artemether-lumefantrine. These data support age-dosed SLDPQ for transmission blocking in sub-Saharan Africa., Funding: This work was cofunded by the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and UK Aid through the Global Health Trials (grant reference MR/P006973/1). The funders had no role in the study design, execution, and analysis and decisions regarding publication., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests All authors declare that they have no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2023
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11. Safety of age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine in children with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency who are infected with Plasmodium falciparum in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial.

Author: Taylor WR, Olupot-Olupot P, Onyamboko MA, Peerawaranun P, Weere W, Namayanja C, Onyas P, Titin H, Baseke J, Muhindo R, Kayembe DK, Ndjowo PO, Basara BB, Bongo GS, Okalebo CB, Abongo G, Uyoga S, Williams TN, Taya C, Dhorda M, Tarning J, Dondorp AM, Waithira N, Fanello C, Maitland K, Mukaka M, and Day NJP
Subjects: Male, Female, Humans, Child, Infant, Primaquine adverse effects, Plasmodium falciparum genetics, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo epidemiology, Artemether therapeutic use, Artemether, Lumefantrine Drug Combination adverse effects, Glucosephosphate Dehydrogenase genetics, Glucosephosphate Dehydrogenase therapeutic use, Hemoglobins therapeutic use, World Health Organization, Antimalarials adverse effects, Glucosephosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency genetics, Glucosephosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency chemically induced, Glucosephosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency drug therapy, Malaria, Falciparum epidemiology
Abstract: Background: WHO recommends gametocytocidal, single low-dose primaquine for blocking the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum; however, safety concerns have hampered the implementation of this strategy in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to investigate the safety of age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine in children from Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo., Methods: We conducted this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial at the Mbale Regional Referral Hospital, Mbale, Uganda, and the Kinshasa Mahidol Oxford Research Unit, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Children aged between 6 months and 11 years with acute uncomplicated P falciparum infection and haemoglobin concentrations of at least 6 g/dL were enrolled. Patients were excluded if they had a comorbid illness requiring inpatient treatment, were taking haemolysing drugs for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, were allergic to the study drugs, or were enrolled in another clinical trial. G6PD status was defined by genotyping for the G6PD c.202T allele, the cause of the G6PD-deficient A- variant. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive single low-dose primaquine combined with either artemether-lumefantrine or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, dosed by bodyweight. Randomisation was stratified by age and G6PD status. The primary endpoint was the development of profound (haemoglobin <4 g/dL) or severe (haemoglobin <5 g/dL) anaemia with severity features, within 21 days of treatment. Analysis was by intention to treat. The sample size assumed an incidence of 1·5% in the placebo group and a 3% non-inferiority margin. The trial is registered at ISRCTN, 11594437, and is closed to new participants., Findings: Participants were recruited at the Mbale Regional Referral Hospital between Dec 18, 2017, and Oct 7, 2019, and at the Kinshasa Mahidol Oxford Research Unit between July 17, 2017, and Oct 5, 2019. 4620 patients were assessed for eligibility. 3483 participants were excluded, most owing to negative rapid diagnostic test or negative malaria slide (n=2982). 1137 children with a median age of 5 years were enrolled and randomly assigned (286 to the artemether-lumefantrine plus single low-dose primaquine group, 286 to the artemether-lumefantrine plus placebo group, 283 to the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus single low-dose primaquine group, and 282 to the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus placebo group). Genotyping of G6PD identified 239 G6PD-c.202T hemizygous males and 45 G6PD-c.202T homozygous females (defining the G6PD-deficient group), 119 heterozygous females, 418 G6PD-c.202C normal males and 299 G6PD-c.202C normal females (defining the non-G6PD-deficient group), and 17 children of unknown status. 67 patients were lost to follow-up and four patients withdrew during the study-these numbers were similar between groups. No participants developed profound anaemia and three developed severe anaemia: from the G6PD-deficient group, none (0%) of 133 patients who received placebo and one (0·66%) of 151 patients who received primaquine (difference -0·66%, 95% CI -1·96 to 0·63; p=0·35); and from the non-G6PD-deficient group, one (0·23%) of 430 patients who received placebo and one (0·25%) of 407 patients who received primaquine (-0·014%, -0·68 to 0·65; p=0·97)., Interpretation: Gametocytocidal, age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine was well tolerated in children from Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo who were infected with P falciparum, and the safety profile of this treatment was similar to that of the placebo. These data support the wider implementation of single low-dose primaquine in Africa., Funding: UK Government Department for International Development, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust Joint Global Health Trials Scheme., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2023
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12. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author: Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, Lim SS, Wolock TM, Roberts DA, Dansereau EA, Graetz N, Barber RM, Brown JC, Wang H, Duber HC, Naghavi M, Dicker D, Dandona L, Salomon JA, Heuton KR, Foreman K, Phillips DE, Fleming TD, Flaxman AD, Phillips BK, Johnson EK, Coggeshall MS, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Adeyemo AO, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Akena D, Al Kahbouri MJ, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alcalá-Cerra G, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allen PJ, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson BO, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Basu S, Beardsley J, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bernabe E, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Abdulhak AB, Binagwaho A, Blore JD, Basara BB, Bose D, Brainin M, Breitborde N, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Chiang PP, Chuang TW, Colomar M, Cooper LT, Cooper C, Courville KJ, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Dandona R, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Driscoll TR, Durrani AM, Ellenbogen RG, Ermakov SP, Esteghamati A, Faraon EJ, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fijabi DO, Forouzanfar MH, Fra Paleo U, Gaffikin L, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Ginawi IA, Glaser EL, Gona P, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Pi IB, Hoek HW, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Jacobsen KH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Kankindi I, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khonelidze I, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Knibbs L, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kulkarni VS, Kulkarni C, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lai T, Balaji AL, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, De Lima GM, Lin HH, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lotufo PA, Machado VM, Maclachlan JH, Magis-Rodriguez C, Majdan M, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Mason-Jones AJ, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mckay AC, Meaney PA, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montico M, Moore AR, Mori R, Moturi WN, Mukaigawara M, Murthy KS, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Narayan KM, Nash D, Nejjari C, Nelson RG, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Nowaseb V, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orisakwe OE, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Pourmalek F, Qato D, Quezada AD, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Ur Rahman S, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reilly RQ, Remuzzi G, Richardus JH, Ronfani L, Roy N, Sabin N, Saeedi MY, Sahraian MA, Samonte GM, Sawhney M, Schneider IJ, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shiue I, Shivakoti R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva AP, Simard EP, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Soshnikov SS, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou VK, Stroumpoulis K, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Uzun SB, Vallely AJ, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Waller S, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wang X, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, White RA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Woldeyohannes SM, Wong JQ, Xu G, Yang YC, Yano Y, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis M, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zou XN, Lopez AD, and Vos T
Subjects: Age Distribution, Epidemics statistics & numerical data, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Mortality trends, Organizational Objectives, Sex Distribution, Global Health trends, HIV Infections epidemiology, Malaria epidemiology, Tuberculosis epidemiology
Abstract: Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration., Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets., Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990., Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2014
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13. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author: Kassebaum NJ, Bertozzi-Villa A, Coggeshall MS, Shackelford KA, Steiner C, Heuton KR, Gonzalez-Medina D, Barber R, Huynh C, Dicker D, Templin T, Wolock TM, Ozgoren AA, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Akena D, Alasfoor D, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Al Kahbouri MJ, Alla F, Allen PJ, AlMazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzmán N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Amini H, Ammar W, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asad MM, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Basu A, Basu S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bernabe E, Beyene TJ, Bhutta Z, Bin Abdulhak A, Blore JD, Basara BB, Bose D, Breitborde N, Cárdenas R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavlin A, Chang JC, Che X, Christophi CA, Chugh SS, Cirillo M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper LT, Cooper C, da Costa Leite I, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davis A, Dayama A, Degenhardt L, De Leo D, del Pozo-Cruz B, Deribe K, Dessalegn M, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Dorrington RE, Driscoll TR, Ermakov SP, Esteghamati A, Faraon EJ, Farzadfar F, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, de Lima GM, Forouzanfar MH, França EB, Gaffikin L, Gambashidze K, Gankpé FG, Garcia AC, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Glaser EL, Goginashvili K, Gona P, González-Castell D, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Pi IB, Hoek HW, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Husseini A, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jahangir E, Jee SH, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabagambe EK, Kan H, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khan EA, Khang YH, Knibbs L, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Kwan G, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung R, Li X, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lin HH, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, London SJ, Lotufo PA, Ma J, Ma S, Machado VM, Mainoo NK, Majdan M, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marzan MB, Mason-Jones AJ, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JC, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Nand D, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Nelson RG, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orisakwe OE, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Park JH, Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Poenaru D, Polanczyk GV, Polinder S, Pope D, Pourmalek F, Qato D, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, ur Rahman S, Raju M, Rana SM, Refaat A, Ronfani L, Roy N, Pimienta TG, Sahraian MA, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Santos IS, Sawhney M, Sayinzoga F, Schneider IJ, Schumacher A, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva AP, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soshnikov SS, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tan F, Teixeira CM, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thorne-Lyman AL, Tirschwell DL, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tsilimbaris M, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Vallely AJ, van Gool CH, Vasankari TJ, Vavilala MS, Venketasubramanian N, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vos T, Waller S, Wang H, Wang L, Wang X, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, Wilkinson JD, Woldeyohannes SM, Wong JQ, Wordofa MA, Xu G, Yang YC, Yano Y, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zou XN, Lopez AD, Naghavi M, Murray CJ, and Lozano R
Subjects: Age Distribution, Cause of Death trends, Female, Global Health statistics & numerical data, HIV Infections mortality, Humans, Models, Statistical, Organizational Objectives, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious mortality, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors, Global Health trends, Maternal Mortality trends
Abstract: Background: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery., Methods: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values., Findings: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland., Interpretation: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2014
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14. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author: Wang H, Liddell CA, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Levitz CE, Schumacher AE, Apfel H, Iannarone M, Phillips B, Lofgren KT, Sandar L, Dorrington RE, Rakovac I, Jacobs TA, Liang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Yang G, Wang Y, Liu S, Li Y, Ozgoren AA, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Ademi Z, Alemu ZA, Allen PJ, AlMazroa MA, Alvarez E, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anwari P, Cunningham SA, Asad MM, Assadi R, Banerjee A, Basu S, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bhutta Z, Blore JD, Basara BB, Boufous S, Breitborde N, Bruce NG, Bui LN, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castro RE, Catalá-Lopéz F, Cavlin A, Che X, Chiang PP, Chowdhury R, Christophi CA, Chuang TW, Cirillo M, da Costa Leite I, Courville KJ, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davis A, Dayama A, Deribe K, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Edmond KM, Ermakov SP, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fijabi DO, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Garcia AC, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Goginashvili K, Gona P, Goto A, Gouda HN, Green MA, Greenwell KF, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Harb HL, Hay S, Hedayati MT, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Idrisov BT, Islami F, Ismayilova S, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabagambe EK, Kazi DS, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khang YH, Kim D, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kumar GA, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Lai T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leinsalu M, Lim SS, Lipshultz SE, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Mahdi AA, Marzan MB, Mashal MT, Mazorodze TT, McGrath JJ, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Montico M, Moore AR, Moschandreas J, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Muszynska MM, Naghavi M, Naidoo KS, Narayan KM, Nejjari C, Ng M, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nyakarahuka L, Ohkubo T, Omer SB, Caicedo AJ, Pillay-van Wyk V, Pope D, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Rahman SU, Rana SM, Reilly RQ, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Rushton L, Saeedi MY, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Santos IS, Sawhney M, Schmidt JC, Shakh-Nazarova M, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soshnikov SS, Sposato LA, Stathopoulou VK, Stroumpoulis K, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Teixeira CM, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Toyoshima H, Dimbuene ZT, Uwaliraye P, Uzun SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AM, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Waller S, Wan X, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Yang YC, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis M, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhu S, Vos T, Lopez AD, and Murray CJ
Subjects: Child, Preschool, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Child Mortality trends, Global Health trends, Infant Mortality trends
Abstract: Background: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success., Methods: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030., Findings: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone., Interpretation: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2014
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15. Estimating mortality and causes of death in Turkey: methods, results and policy implications.

Author: Akgün S, Rao C, Yardim N, Basara BB, Aydin O, Mollahaliloglu S, and Lopez AD
Subjects: Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Cost of Illness, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Turkey epidemiology, Cause of Death trends, Health Policy
Abstract: Background: Cause-specific mortality statistics are primary evidence for health policy formulation, programme evaluation, and epidemiological research. In Turkey, a partially functioning vital registration system in urban areas yields fragmentary evidence on levels and causes of mortality. This article discusses the application of innovative methods to develop national mortality estimates in Turkey, and their implications for national health development policies., Methods: Child mortality levels from the Demography and Health Survey (DHS) were applied to model life tables to estimate age-specific death rates. Reported causes of death from urban areas were adjusted using re-distribution algorithms from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Rural cause structure was estimated from epidemiological models. Local epidemiological data was used to adjust model-based estimates., Results: Life expectancy at birth in 2000 was estimated to be 67.7 years (males) and 71.9 years (females), about 8-10 years lower than in Western Europe. Leading causes of death include major vascular diseases (ischaemic heart disease, stroke) causing 35-38% of deaths, chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer in men, but also perinatal causes, lower respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases. Injuries cause about 6-8% of deaths, although this may be an underestimate., Conclusions: Mortality estimates are uncertain in Turkey, given the poor quality of death registration systems. Application of burden of disease methods suggests that there has been progress along the epidemiological transition. Key health development strategies for Turkey include improved access to communicable disease control technologies, and urgent attention to the development of a reliable, nationally representative health information system.
Published: 2007
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15 results on '"Basara, Bb"'

1. Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

2. Safety of age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine in children with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency who are infected with Plasmodium falciparum in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial

3. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

4. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

5. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

6. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

7. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

8. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

9. Factors affecting haemoglobin dynamics in African children with acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria treated with single low-dose primaquine or placebo.

10. Pharmacokinetics of single low dose primaquine in Ugandan and Congolese children with falciparum malaria.

11. Safety of age-dosed, single low-dose primaquine in children with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency who are infected with Plasmodium falciparum in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial.

12. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

13. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

14. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

15. Estimating mortality and causes of death in Turkey: methods, results and policy implications.

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