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Background Key knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of viral dynamics and immune response of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Methods We evaluated these characteristics and established their association with clinical severity in a prospective observational cohort study of 100 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean age, 46 years; 56% male; 38% with comorbidities). Respiratory samples (n = 74) were collected for viral culture, serum samples for measurement of IgM/IgG levels (n = 30), and plasma samples for levels of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (n = 81). Disease severity was correlated with results from viral culture, serologic testing, and immune markers. Results Fifty-seven (57%) patients developed viral pneumonia, of whom 20 (20%) required supplemental oxygen, including 12 (12%) with invasive mechanical ventilation. Viral culture from respiratory samples was positive for 19 of 74 patients (26%). No virus was isolated when the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value was >30 or >14 days after symptom onset. Seroconversion occurred at a median (IQR) of 12.5 (9–18) days for IgM and 15.0 (12–20) days for IgG; 54/62 patients (87.1%) sampled at day 14 or later seroconverted. Severe infections were associated with earlier seroconversion and higher peak IgM and IgG levels. Levels of IP-10, HGF, IL-6, MCP-1, MIP-1α, IL-12p70, IL-18, VEGF-A, PDGF-BB, and IL-1RA significantly correlated with disease severity. Conclusions We found virus viability was associated with lower PCR Ct value in early illness. A stronger antibody response was associated with disease severity. The overactive proinflammatory immune signatures offer targets for host-directed immunotherapy, which should be evaluated in randomized controlled trials.

Background Rapid identification of COVID-19 cases, which is crucial to outbreak containment efforts, is challenging due to the lack of pathognomonic symptoms and in settings with limited capacity for specialized nucleic acid–based reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Methods This retrospective case-control study involves subjects (7–98 years) presenting at the designated national outbreak screening center and tertiary care hospital in Singapore for SARS-CoV-2 testing from 26 January to 16 February 2020. COVID-19 status was confirmed by PCR testing of sputum, nasopharyngeal swabs, or throat swabs. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and exposure-risk variables ascertainable at presentation were analyzed to develop an algorithm for estimating the risk of COVID-19. Model development used Akaike’s information criterion in a stepwise fashion to build logistic regression models, which were then translated into prediction scores. Performance was measured using receiver operating characteristic curves, adjusting for overconfidence using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results The study population included 788 subjects, of whom 54 (6.9%) were SARS-CoV-2 positive and 734 (93.1%) were SARS-CoV-2 negative. The median age was 34 years, and 407 (51.7%) were female. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, all the models incorporating clinical tests (models 1, 2, and 3) performed well with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.88, respectively. In comparison, model 4 had an AUC of 0.65. Conclusions Rapidly ascertainable clinical and laboratory data could identify individuals at high risk of COVID-19 and enable prioritization of PCR testing and containment efforts. Basic laboratory test results were crucial to prediction models., A risk score incorporating easily ascertainable demographic, clinical evaluation, and clinical testing covariates to identify patients at high risk of COVID-19 can help prioritize subjects for testing and public health measures to prevent onward transmission, especially in resource-limited settings.

Background The performance of real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) for SARS-CoV-2 varies with sampling site(s), illness stage, and infection site. Methods Unilateral nasopharyngeal, nasal midturbinate, throat swabs, and saliva were simultaneously sampled for SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR from suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19. True positives were defined as patients with at least 1 SARS-CoV-2 detected by rRT-PCR from any site on the evaluation day or at any time point thereafter, until discharge. Diagnostic performance was assessed and extrapolated for site combinations. Results We evaluated 105 patients; 73 had active SARS-CoV-2 infection. Overall, nasopharyngeal specimens had the highest clinical sensitivity at 85%, followed by throat, 80%, midturbinate, 62%, and saliva, 38%–52%. Clinical sensitivity for nasopharyngeal, throat, midturbinate, and saliva was 95%, 88%, 72%, and 44%–56%, respectively, if taken ≤7 days from onset of illness, and 70%, 67%, 47%, 28%–44% if >7 days of illness. Comparing patients with upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) vs pneumonia, clinical sensitivity for nasopharyngeal, throat, midturbinate, and saliva was 92% vs 70%, 88% vs 61%, 70% vs 44%, 43%–54% vs 26%–45%, respectively. A combination of nasopharyngeal plus throat or midturbinate plus throat specimen afforded overall clinical sensitivities of 89%–92%; this rose to 96% for persons with URTI and 98% for persons ≤7 days from illness onset. Conclusions Nasopharyngeal specimens, followed by throat specimens, offer the highest clinical sensitivity for COVID-19 diagnosis in early illness. Clinical sensitivity improves and is similar when either midturbinate or nasopharyngeal specimens are combined with throat specimens. Upper respiratory specimens perform poorly if taken after the first week of illness or if there is pneumonia.

Background Key knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of viral dynamics and immune response of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods We evaluated these characteristics and established their association with clinical severity in a prospective observational cohort study of 100 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean age 46 years, 56% male, 38% with comorbidities). Respiratory samples (n=74) were collected for viral culture, serum samples for measurement of IgM/IgG levels (n=30), and plasma samples for levels of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (n=81). Disease severity was correlated with results from viral culture, serologic testing, and immune markers. Results 57 (57%) patients developed viral pneumonia, of whom 20 (20%) required supplemental oxygen including 12 (12%) invasive mechanical ventilation. Viral culture from respiratory samples was positive for 19 of 74 patients (26%). No virus was isolated when the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value was >30 or >14 days after symptom onset. Seroconversion occurred at a median of 12.5 days (IQR 9-18) for IgM and 15.0 days (IQR 12-20) for IgG; 54/62 patients (87.1%) sampled at day 14 or later seroconverted. Severe infections were associated with earlier seroconversion and higher peak IgM and IgG levels. Levels of IP-10, HGF, IL-6, MCP-1, MIP-1α, IL-12p70, IL-18, VEGF-A, PDGF-BB and IL-1RA significantly correlated with disease severity. Conclusion We found virus viability was associated with lower PCR Ct value in early illness. A stronger antibody response was associated with disease severity. The overactive proinflammatory immune signatures offers targets for host-directed immunotherapy which should be evaluated in randomised controlled trials.