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MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4)., Key Points: Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux.

Composite materials that can serve as both effective shielding materials against cosmic-ray and energetic solar particles in deep space, as well as structural materials for habitat and spacecraft, remain a critical and mission enabling component in mission planning and exploration. Polyethylene is known to have excellent shielding properties due to its low density, coupled with high hydrogen content. Polyethylene-fiber reinforced composites promise to combine this shielding effectiveness with the required mechanical properties of structural materials. Samples of polyethylene-fiber reinforced epoxy matrix composite 1-5 cm thick were prepared at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and tested against a 500 MeV/nucleon Fe beam at the HIMAC facility of NIRS in Chiba, Japan. This paper presents measured and calculated results for the radiation transport properties of these samples.

The ability to know with precision the depth-dose, dose average LET, fluence and energy distributions is of great importance in many research fields, including therapeutic and diagnostic medicine when using heavy ion beams, as well as in space research. We have therefore developed a model and a computer code for calculating these distributions when using high energy proton or heavy ion beams. In this model, we use semi-empirical total reaction and partial cross section formulas developed by us and a new prescription to take into account the energy and momentum loss of the secondary nuclei. In this paper, we will also present an empirical equation for the total inelastic 4He-p cross section, as well as the partial cross sections for the production of 3He, 3H, 2H, p and n.