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Anthropogenic warming's effects on phenology across environmental and temporal gradients are well recognized. Long-term phenological monitoring data are often limited in duration and geographic scope, but recent efforts to digitize herbaria collections make it possible to reliably reconstruct historic flowering phenology across broad geographic scales and multiple species, lending to an increased understanding of community response to climate change. In this study, we examined collection dates (1901 to 2015) of 8540 flowering specimens from 39 native species in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. We hypothesized that flowering phenology would be sensitive to temperature but that sensitivity would vary depending on blooming season and geographic range position. As expected, we found that early-season bloomers are more sensitive to temperature than later-season bloomers. Sensitivity to temperature was significantly greater at low elevations and in the maritime (western) portion of the PNW than at higher elevations and in the eastern interior, respectively. The elevational and longitudinal effects on flowering sensitivity reflect spring "arriving" earlier at low elevations and in the maritime portion of the PNW. These results demonstrate that phenological responses to warming vary substantially across climatically diverse regions, warranting careful and nuanced consideration of climate warming's effects on plant phenology.

While the fundamental biophysics of C 3 photosynthesis is highly conserved across plants, substantial leaf structural and enzymatic variation translates into variability in rates of carbon assimilation. Although this variation is well documented, it remains poorly understood how photosynthetic rates evolve, and whether macroevolutionary changes are related to the evolution of leaf morphology and biochemistry. A substantial challenge in large-scale comparative studies is disentangling evolutionary adaptation from environmental acclimation. We overcome this by using a ‘macroevolutionary common garden’ approach in which we measured metabolic traits ( J max and V cmax ) from 111 phylogenetically diverse species in a shared environment. We find substantial phylogenetic signal in these traits at moderate phylogenetic timescales, but this signal dissipates quickly at deeper scales. Morphological traits exhibit phylogenetic signal over much deeper timescales, suggesting that these are less evolutionarily constrained than metabolic traits. Furthermore, while morphological and biochemical traits (LMA, N area and C area ) are weakly predictive of J max and V c max , evolutionary changes in these traits are mostly decoupled from changes in metabolic traits. This lack of tight evolutionary coupling implies that it may be incorrect to use changes in these functional traits in response to global change to infer that photosynthetic strategy is also evolving.

PREMISE Long-term observations show that flowering phenology has shifted in many lineages in response to climate change. However, it remains unclear whether these results can be generalized to predict the presence, direction, or magnitude of responses in lineages for which we lack long time-series data. If phenological responses are phylogenetically conserved, we can extrapolate from species for which we have data to predict the responses of close relatives. While several studies have found that closely related species flower at similar times, fewer have evaluated whether phylogenetically proximal species respond to environmental change similarly. METHODS We paired flowering time data from 3161 manually scored herbarium specimens of 72 species of grasses (Poaceae) with historical climate data and analyzed the phylogenetic signal and phylogenetic half-life of phenological sensitivity. We also ran these analyses on a subset of species showing statistically significant sensitivities, in order to assess the role of sampling bias on phylogenetic signal. RESULTS Closely related grass species tend to flower at similar times, but flowering times respond to temperature changes in species-specific ways. We also show that only including species for which there is strong evidence of phenological shifts results in overestimating phylogenetic signal. CONCLUSIONS In agreement with other recent studies, our results suggest caution in extrapolating from evidence of phylogenetic similarity to predicting shared responses in this ecologically relevant trait. Future work is needed to better understand the discrepancy between the phylogenetic signal in observed phenological shifts and absence of such signal in sensitivity.

For many species, understanding how climate influences the timing of seasonal life history events (phenology) is limited by the availability of long-term data. Further, long-term studies of plant phenology are often local in scale. Recent efforts to digitize herbarium collections make it possible to examine large numbers of specimens from multiple species over broad geographic regions. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), understory plant species found in old-growth forests may be buffered against climate warming (Frey et al. 2016). Using 8,500 specimens of 40 plant species housed in 25 herbaria collected over more than 100 years in the PNW we analyzed whether these species have experienced shifts in flowering phenology corresponding to long-term climate warming. Our findings were mixed, with some species experiencing earlier flowering phenology over time while others have not shifted their flowering phenology since the early-1900s. Responses were dependent on life-history, including habitat preference and timing of flowering. These results demonstrate that herbarium collections are an important tool for examining long-term flowering phenological over broad geographic areas and habitat types. Further, flowering phenology does not uniformly shift in correlation with climate warming.