Search

Abstract Background Obesity is known as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is an absence of preoperative cardiac risk assessment in bariatric surgery candidates and the incidence of CVD among these high-risk patients is still unknown. Methods A consecutive series of bariatric surgery candidates at two Chinese tertiary hospitals received coronary CT angiography or coronary angiography from 2017 to 2023. Patients were categorized as metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO) and metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) based on the presence or absence of MetS. CVD was diagnosed based on the maximum intraluminal stenosis > 1% in any of the segments of the major epicardial coronary arteries. Obstructive CVD was defined as coronary stenosis ≥ 50%. Binary multivariable logistic regression was performed to analyze the association between CVD and metabolic status. The number of principal MetS components was categorized into zero (without glycemic, lipid, and BP components), one (with one of the components), two (with any two components), and three (with all components) to explore their association with CVD. Results A total of 1446 patients were included in the study. The incidence of CVD and obstructive CVD were 31.7% and 9.6%. Compared with MHO patients, MUO patients had a significantly higher incidence of mild (13.7% vs. 6.1%, P

Abstract Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause massive damage from inland floods and is becoming more intense under a warming climate. However, knowledge gaps still exist in changes of spatial patterns in heavy TC precipitation. Here we define a metric, DIST30, as the mean radial distance from centers of clustered heavy rainfall cells (> 30 mm/3 h) to TC center, representing the footprint of heavy TC precipitation. There is significant global increase in DIST30 at a rate of 0.34 km/year. Increases of DIST30 cover 59.87% of total TC impact areas, with growth especially strong in the Western North Pacific, Northern Atlantic, and Southern Pacific. The XGBoost machine learning model showed that monthly DIST30 variability is majorly controlled by TC maximum wind speed, location, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and total water column vapor. TC poleward migration in the Northern Hemisphere contributes substantially to the DIST30 upward trend globally.

Abstract Increased global floating populations is an important driver of local social‐ecological systems change, especially in ecologically fragile areas. However, the limitations of accurate data and specific methods have prevented the exploration of spatial visitation of floating populations and its risk of negative effects on fragile ecosystems. Here, we contribute to filling the knowledge gap in Tibet by adopting large‐scale geolocation data and incorporating factors such as landscape aesthetic value, ecological vulnerability and traffic accessibility. We found that 89.97% of the digital footprints of floating populations in Tibet have entered nature areas with low density of resident population, and 40.57% of them have entered ecologically fragile areas, leading to increased ecological risks. Nature‐based tourism is the main motive for floating populations to enter the ecologically fragile areas, accounting for 65.56%. The central government inadvertently exacerbated ecological risks by leading road construction, resulting in 64.62% of the ecological risks being located in areas with high traffic accessibility. The floating populations entering Tibet have the dual effects of promoting economic development and causing ecological risks. Therefore, it is urgent to put forward strategies to promote the sustainable development in Tibet based on the complex system of “nature‐based tourism–ecological protection–economic income–government behavior”. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

AbstractLandslides can result in extensive casualties and huge economic losses. The accurate discrimination of the main slip direction and deformation trajectory is an important prerequisite for studying landslide formation mechanisms and designing landslide control schemes. In the process of landslide evolution over time, the main slip direction also changes dynamically and provides a comprehensive reflection of the landslide displacement state. However, few studies on this topic have been published. In this paper, a new methodology for analyzing slope stability is proposed based on three techniques: interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), and ground-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (GB-InSAR). The Small Baseline Subset Interferometric SAR (SBAS-InSAR) technique is combined with an overall analysis of the study area to identify the regions of interest (ROIs) with large deformation and the starting target points, and the fusion results of radar deformation data (RDD) and digital surface model (DSM) data are used to fit the deformation surface field of the ROIs. The gradient descent approach is executed to obtain the running trajectory points of the target masses so that the main slip direction and displacement trajectory in the study area can be predicted at small scales. The measured data for the Hongshiyan landslide in Yunnan Province are used to verify the effectiveness of the method, and the predicted results are consistent with the actual landslide direction. The experimental results show that the method can exactly identify the deformation area, especially in the case of a fast-changing deformation trend. This approach can provide more accurate monitoring area results to support the rapid control and prevention of landslide hazards by analyzing the minimum pixel grid (i.e. points), as the smallest spatial unit at a time interval of minutes. The study shows that the method can efficiently combine space–Earth multisource monitoring data to clarify the main slide direction and improve the postslide trajectory prediction of the slope, which is beneficial for assessing disaster risks and improving landslide prevention and control effects, reflecting the engineering application value of the approach.

BackgroundBariatric surgery is an effective approach to weight loss, which may also affect thyroid function. However, alteration in thyroid-stimulating hormone (ΔTSH) and thyroid hormones after bariatric surgery and the relationship between thyroid function and postoperative weight loss still remains controversial.MethodsData were collected from euthyroid patients with obesity who underwent sleeve gastrectomy and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass from 2017 to 2022. The alterations of free thyroxine (FT4), free triiodothyronine (FT3), total thyroxine (TT4), total triiodothyronine (TT3), and TSH were calculated 1 year after surgery. Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the correlation between the percentage of total weight loss (%TWL) and ΔTSH. Multivariable linear regression was utilized to determine the association between %TWL and ΔTSH.ResultsA total of 256 patients were included in our study. The mean %TWL was 28.29% after 1 year. TSH decreased from 2.33 (1.67, 3.04) uIU/mL to 1.82 (1.21, 2.50) uIU/mL (P < 0.001), FT3 decreased from 3.23 ± 0.42 pg/mL to 2.89 ± 0.41 pg/mL (P < 0.001), FT4 decreased from 1.11 ± 0.25 ng/dL to 1.02 ± 0.25 ng/dL (P < 0.001), TT3 decreased from 1.13 (1.00, 1.25) ng/mL to 0.89 (0.78, 1.00) ng/mL (P < 0.001), and TT4 decreased from 8.28 ± 1.69 ug/mL to 7.82 ± 1.68 ug/mL 1 year postoperatively (P < 0.001). %TWL was found to be significantly correlated to ΔTSH by Pearson correlation analysis (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.184, P = 0.003), indicating that the more weight loss, the more TSH declined. After adjusting for covariates in multivariable linear regression, %TWL was found to be independently associated with ΔTSH (β = 0.180 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.048 – 0.312], P = 0.008). Moreover, %TWL was divided into 3 categorical groups (%TWL ≤ 25%, 25% < %TWL ≤ 35%, and %TWL > 35%) for further exploration, and was also found to be an independent predictor for ΔTSH after adjusting for covariates in multivariable linear regression (β = 0.153 [95% CI, 0.019 – 0.287], P = 0.025).ConclusionTSH, FT4, FT3, TT4, and TT3 decrease significantly 1 year after bariatric surgery. The decline in TSH is independently mediated by postoperative weight loss; the more the weight loss, the more the TSH decrease.

AbstractIn the recent decades, mass casualties and property losses are caused by flood events. A combination of satellite and hydrological methods has been promoted owing to the advantages of satellite precipitation products (SPPs), such as their wide coverage and high spatiotemporal resolution; these benefits may make up for the deficiencies of gauge data and make SPPs a good supplementary data source, especially for sparsely gauged areas. The present study employs the double-kernel smoothing technique (DS) to integrate TRMM precipitation data and gauge data and evaluates the performance of this method in identifying extreme flood events via the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) in the humid Xiangjiang River Basin, China. Results show that the HEC-HMS driven by TRMM precipitation data can capture the 9 selected flood events accurately both before and after the merging process despite some deficiencies in the TRMM precipitation data. In addition, the merging method generally improved the consistency (CC increased from 0.04 to 0.24) and rainfall-detection capability of the TRMM precipitation data (FAR decreased by 9.12%, POD increased by 56.91% and HSS increased by 15.43%) and also promoted the overall hydrological simulation accuracy and reliability (the average CC increased from 0.86 to 0.96, the average NSE increased from 0.58 to 0.73). However, the blended TRMM precipitation data did not always outperform the nonblended data in terms of certain flood feature simulation details, such as the flood volume, flood peak and peak time.

The optimized location and allocation of earthquake emergency shelters are critical for improving the resilience of communities. However, the existing disaster shelters location–allocation optimization models usually select new shelters from candidate shelters neglecting the existing or planned shelters. The research into comparisons before and after location–allocation optimization between the current planning scenario (CLA scenario) and the supplementary new candidate shelter scenario (SLA scenario) is thus imperative for disaster risk reduction. This article develops a multi-criteria multi-objective multi-scenario supplemental location–allocation optimization model that addresses the concerns related to optimization comparison based on the above two scenarios and provides a higher degree of realism by integrating multi-criteria evaluation and optimization comparison into location–allocation problems. The solutions obtained under the two scenarios are then compared with a case study in Huairou Science City. The results show that the solution under the SLA scenario is superior to the corresponding CLA scenario regardless of the minimal-distance scheme or the minimal-area scheme. The proposed model is proven to be useful for the location–allocation optimization of earthquake emergency shelters, and the presented results can be used as a reference for balancing the interests of the government and residents during the reconstruction and expansion projects of shelters.

Abstract Natural disasters occur when environmental systems have a disruptive effect on the socio-economic system. In recent years, particular unreasonable human behaviours have amplified losses from natural disasters as result of the increasing complexity of human systems. Because of the lack of both quantitative calculation of this amplification, and analysis of the root cause of these behaviours, existing risk assessment and management research rarely includes unreasonable human behaviour as a critical factor. This study therefore creates three simulation scenarios, each based on a twenty-first-century catastrophe in China, and calculates the disaster losses that are amplified when such behaviour increases exposure (the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake), vulnerability (the 2014 Ludian earthquake) and hazard (the 2021 Zhengzhou rainstorm) levels. In doing so, it intuitively demonstrates the amplification effect caused by unreasonable human behaviour. The results show that these behaviours amplified disaster losses significantly: increased exposure due to unscientific planning nearly doubled the death toll in the Wenchuan earthquake; high vulnerability caused by the low economic level of residents increased the disaster losses of the Ludian earthquake more than tenfold; and the elevated hazard intensity caused by anthropogenic climate change resulted in a 1.44-times expansion of the area severely affected by the Zhengzhou rainstorm. These behaviours have become an important cause of disasters, and the main driving factors behind them—such as neglecting disaster risk; the inability to cope with disasters; and a lack of certainty about how to deal with extreme events—are the inevitable outcomes of societal development. On this basis, we constructed an extended risk framework that included unreasonable behavioural factors and a disaster mechanism, to analyse in depth the relationship between human behaviours and disaster risk prevention in different developmental stages. The results provide an important reference for the development of risk management policies to control these unreasonable behaviours.

Pollutant types are increasing along with the rapid development of society and economy. Some emerging pollutants from chemicals have begun to appear and endanger public and ecosystem health. However, the research and development of emerging pollutant monitoring technology is still in its infancy, with no complete monitoring system in place. This makes it impossible to access and identify the spatial pattern of emerging pollutants. Therefore, this paper reviews the existing quantitative research results on four common emerging pollutants in China’s water environment—namely, endocrine disruptors, brominated flame retardants, perfluorinated compounds, and microplastics—extracts the quantitative monitoring results of emerging pollutants in the case studies, and outlines the spatial distribution characteristics of emerging pollutants in the water environment. The results show that the emerging pollutants have a large distribution area that has covered most of China. The level of pollution from emerging pollutants correlates with the level of economic development and the pollution level in economically developed regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is significantly higher than in other regions. This study provides a reference for the prevention and control of emerging pollutants in China.

Abstract Linking of ‘consumption-industrial production-surface water deterioration’ is essential for industrialised economies to understand the mechanism of industrial water pollution. However, such a connection may mislead policy decisions if sectoral details are lacking. This study investigated excess pollution discharge from 11,094 industrial enterprises comprising 22 economic sectors through setting discharge thresholds on 1338 water function zones in Jiangsu Province, the most industrialised province in China. We further evaluated the contribution of final consumption in Chinese provinces to excess pollution discharge in Jiangsu via a national multi-region input–output table. Notably, despite typically heavy polluting sectors contributing the maximum excess pollution discharge, high-tech manufacturing sectors had a higher level of risk for excess pollution discharge. This was attributed to the spatial agglomeration of these sectors, with enterprises typically located in industrial parks. The increasing final consumption of specific sectors in both Jiangsu and other provinces may further drive excess pollution discharge in Jiangsu.

This study investigates the influence of high-order twisting phases on polarization states and optical angular momentum of a vector light field with locally linear polarization and a hybrid state of polarization (SoP). The twisted vector optical field (TVOF) is experimentally generated based on the orthogonal polarization bases with high-order twisting phases. The initial SoP of a TVOF modulated by the high-order twisting phase possesses various symmetric distributions. The propagation properties of a high-order TVOF with locally linear polarization and hybrid SoP are explored, including the intensity compression, expansion, and conversion between the linear and circular polarization components. In particular, orbital angular momentum (OAM) appears in a high-order TVOF during propagation where no OAM exists in the initial field. The variation of OAM distribution in cross-section becomes more frequent with the increase of the twisting phase order. In addition, a non-symmetric OAM distribution appears in a non-isotropic TVOF, leading to the rotation of the beam around the propagation axis during propagation. The optical energy flow distribution of a high-order TVOF provides a more profound understanding of the propagation dynamics of high-order TVOF. These results provide a new approach for optical field manipulation in a high-order TVOF.

In order to solve the engineering problem that the bolt tail is often broken under the impact of rock pressure, mining stress and the damage to the support structure contribute to great hidden danger to the safety of mining and tunneling. A new anti-impact bolt support structure is designed that can absorb energy under pressure. The double laminated springs and the inner spring deform under the impact load to achieve the purpose of absorbing most of the impact energy. The composition and working principle of the energy-absorbing structure is introduced. The static axial compression tests of the single laminated springs with cone angles of 30°, 45°, and 60° are carried out. The mechanical characteristics of the laminated springs in the three stages of energy absorption are investigated. It is found that the 45° laminated spring has the best energy absorption effect. The simulation method was used to analyze and optimize the energy absorption effect of anti-scour composite components. Double laminated spring anti-shock composite components absorb the impact energy and avoid the damage to the bolt support structure, which reduces the roadway support cost and has important engineering application value for ensuring the safety of deep tunneling and mining.

The development of Qingzang national park cluster is part of China’s efforts to establish a major ecological civilization project in the Qingzang Plateau, in line with global sustainable development goals. Based on preliminary scientific investigation and research in the Qingzang Plateau, the construction of the park cluster will include 21 national parks. To mitigate the conflict between conservation of the national park cluster and the development of local communities, this study proposes an analysis framework to identify the spatial coupling features between the national park cluster and sustainable development of communities. Four elements were selected to construct the analysis framework, including natural conditions, geographic location, cultural background, and national policies. This framework was applied to the 457 township communities within the 21 national parks. Results show the weak influence of the construction of the national park cluster for approximately 304 township communities, without significant spatial coupling traits, while the remaining 153 communities demonstrated significant spatial coupling features. These latter townships had developed four types of spatial coupling with national parks, including eco-migrants, transportation hubs, characteristic cultures, and border development, which account for 17.4%, 35.3%, 19.8%, and 27.5% of the 153 townships respectively. A composite type with more than one spatial coupling feature was also found for 14 communities within the 153 townships. This provides a reference for policy making towards four major types of interactive modes between townships and the national park construction for the sustainable development of Qingzang Plateau.

Many empirical typhoon economic loss models consider that the losses caused by typhoons mainly depend on the intensity of the hazards and the exposure in the affected areas. Few studies have attracted attention to the role of disaster-formative environmental factors in typhoon losses. In this study, we chose land use and land cover (LULC) as disaster-formative environmental factors together with typhoon wind speed, rainfall, and gross domestic product (GDP) as predictive factors for typhoon economic losses in Guangdong Province, China. The results showed that the intensity of wind speed was the most important factor, while LULC played weak roles in typhoon economic losses for 23 typical typhoons in terms of county level losses in Guangdong. Subregionally, typhoon economic loss models performed better in coastal areas than in noncoastal areas.

Technological hazards induced by natural hazards have a significant impact on human life and economy. Their power exceeds the impact of the natural hazards that caused them. However, most of the multi-hazard risk maps failed to incorporate technological hazards when mapping multi hazard risk. To address this problem, we established a hybrid multi-hazard risk assessment methodology that calculates the risk caused by natural and technological hazards in a three-step process. First, the possible natural and technological hazards in a given region are identified by hazard-forming environment analysis and hazard source investigation respectively. A scenario simulation is adopted to analyze the intensity and impact scope of these hazards. Second, the triggered relationships among natural and technological hazards are analyzed by a hazard matrix. Then, the radar graph is adopted to calculate the multi-hazard intensity under the coupling effect of all possible hazards in this region. Third, the multi-hazard risk is calculated by aggregating land use data and multi-hazard intensity together. This methodology was applied in Huairou Science City (HSC), Beijing. The result shows that the joint action of earthquake and liquid ammonia leakage is the main reason for the high risk in the central area of HSC. The methodology developed in this study can clearly show the different impacts of each hazard on a given region under the action of hazard coupling, and the calculated results can better reflect the actual disaster situation.

Most slope collapse accidents are indicated by certain signs before their occurrence, and unnecessary losses can be avoided by predicting slope deformation. However, the early warning signs of slope deformation are often misjudged. It is necessary to establish a method to determine the appropriate early warning signs in sliding thresholds. Here, to better understand the impact of different scales on the early warning signs of sliding thresholds, we used the Fisher optimal segmentation method to establish the early warning signs of a sliding threshold model based on deformation speed and deformation acceleration at different spatial scales. Our results indicated that the accuracy of the early warning signs of sliding thresholds at the surface scale was the highest. Among them, the early warning thresholds of the blue, yellow, orange, and red level on a small scale were 369.31 mm, 428.96 mm, 448.41 mm, and 923.7 mm, respectively. The evaluation accuracy of disaster non-occurrence and occurrence was 93.25% and 92.41%, respectively. The early warning thresholds of the blue, yellow, orange, and red level on a large scale were 980.11 mm, 1038.16 mm, 2164.63 mm, and 9492.75 mm, respectively. The evaluation accuracy of disaster non-occurrence and occurrence was 97.22% and 97.44%, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to choose deformation at the surface scale with a large scale as the sliding threshold. Our results effectively solve the problem of misjudgment of the early warning signs of slope collapse, which is of great significance for ensuring the safe operation of water conservation projects and improving the slope deformation warning capability.

Microplastics pollution has been threatening the global environmental security, in which agricultural activities are considered as a main source of microplastics occurrence in soils. However, little is known about the occurrence characteristics of microplastics in agricultural soils with long-term plastic film mulching. Therefore, the abundance, distribution, and composition of microplastics were investigated by analyzing 225 soil samples collected from typical maize (Zea mays L.) planting zones with and without long-term (>20 years) plastic film mulching in northern China. Microplastics abundance in mulched soils (754 ± 477 items kg–1) was significantly higher than that in non-mulched soils (376 ± 149 items kg–1), which indicated that plastic film mulching contributed half of microplastics in soils. Moreover, microplastics abundance was significantly positively related to the length of time with film mulching applied. The percentage of microplastics

Grassland degradation has become one of the most important ecological and environmental problems in the world, affecting the ecological balance of grassland and the welfare of residents. To reveal the impact mechanism of herders’ livelihood constraints on grassland degradation, and to explore the comprehensive management methods to ensure herders’ livelihoods and grassland ecological restoration, this paper constructed an evolutionary game model considering local governments and herders. It is found that the ideal stable equilibrium game can be achieved when certain conditions are met, that is, when the local governments actively regulate and herders moderate grazing, the grassland degradation caused by overgrazing can be reduced. The livelihood differentiation of herders significantly affects the stable equilibrium state of the evolutionary game. The local government’s regulation is the key to promoting moderate grazing of herders. The effect of incentive measures on the moderate grazing of herders is limited, while punishment measures can significantly restrict the excessive grazing behavior of herders. Policy support for household livelihood differentiation can effectively motivate herders to moderate grazing and achieve their survival and development needs to a greater extent through a non-grazing livelihood. The research results help decision-makers to formulate policies to combat grassland degradation, and promote the improvement of herders’ lives.

Flood disasters are one of the most serious meteorological disasters in China. With the rapid development of information technology, individual monitoring tools could not meet the need for flood disaster monitoring. Therefore, a new integrated air-space-ground method, based on combined satellite remote sensing, unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing and field measurement technology, has been proposed to monitor and assess flood disasters caused by a dam failure in Poyang County, Jiangxi Province. In this paper, based on an air-space-ground investigation system, the general flooded areas, severely affected areas, and more severely affected areas were 53.18 km2, 12.61 km2 and 6.98 km2, respectively. The size of the dam break gap was about 65 m and 34.7 m on 22 and 23 June. The assessment precision was better than 98%, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.86 m. The method could meet the needs for flood disaster information at different spatiotemporal scales, such as macro scale, medium scale and local small scale. The integrated monitoring of flood disasters was carried out to provide the whole process and all-round information on flood evolution dynamics, the disaster development process for flood disaster monitoring and emergency assessment, and holographic information for emergency rescue and disaster reduction, as well as to meet the need for different temporal and spatial scales of information in the process of disaster emergencies.

Floods that cause yearly economic losses and casualties have increased in frequency with global warming. Assessing the mortality risks of populations due to flooding is important and necessary for risk management and disaster reduction. Thus, this paper develops a method for assessing global mortality risks due to river flooding. Global historical annual death tolls are first estimated during the historical period 1986–2005 (T _0 ) by using available mortality vulnerability functions of river flooding. Then, the best vulnerability function is selected according to lower root mean square errors (RMSE) and the differences in the multi-year mean (DMYM) values. Next, the adjustment coefficient K _c for each country (region) is calculated to use in the revision of the selected vulnerability function. Finally, the mortality risks are estimated based on an adjusted vulnerability function. As a case, the paper assessed and analysed the global mortality risks due to river flooding during 2016–2035 (2030s) and 2046–2065 (2050s) for the combined scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2), and the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. The results show that the estimation errors of the death tolls in most countries (regions) decrease after adjusting the vulnerability function. Under the current defense capacity and vulnerability level, the average annual death tolls of RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 in the 2030s will increase by 1.05 times and 0.93 times compared with the historical period. They will increase 1.89 and 2.20 times, respectively for the two scenarios during 2050s. High-risk areas are distributed in the south-eastern Eurasia.