Search

This paper summarises the outcome of an analysis of stablecoins undertaken by the ECB Crypto-Assets Task Force. At the time of writing, the stablecoin debate lacks a common taxonomy and unambiguous terminology. This paper applies a definition that distinguishes stablecoins from existing forms of currencies - regardless of the technology used - and characterises stablecoin arrangements based on the functions they fulfil. This approach emphasises the role of technology-neutral regulation in preventing arbitrage, as well as comprehensive Eurosystem oversight, irrespective of stablecoins' regulatory status. Against this background, this paper assesses stablecoins' implications for the euro area based on three scenarios for the uptake of stablecoins: (i) as a crypto-assets accessory function; (ii) as a new payment method; and (iii) as an alternative store of value. While the first scenario is merely the continuation of the current state of the market and, thus far, has not posed concerns for the financial sector and/or central bank tasks, stablecoins of the type envisaged in the second scenario may reach a scale such that financial stability risks can become material, and the safety and efficiency of the payment system may be affected. The third scenario is both the least plausible and the most relevant from a monetary policy perspective. The paper concludes that the Eurosystem relies on appropriate regulation, oversight, and supervision to manage the implications of stablecoins (and the risks that stem from them) on its mandate and tasks under plausible scenarios. The Eurosystem continues monitoring the evolution of the stablecoin market and stands ready to respond to rapid changes in all possible scenarios.

This paper summarises the outcomes of the analysis of the ECB Crypto-Assets Task Force. First, it proposes a characterisation of crypto-assets in the absence of a common definition and as a basis for the consistent analysis of this phenomenon. Second, it analyses recent developments in the crypto-assets market and unfolding links with financial markets and the economy. Finally, it assesses the potential impact of crypto-assets on monetary policy, payments and market infrastructures, and financial stability. The analysis shows that, in the current market, crypto-assets' risks or potential implications are limited and/or manageable on the basis of the existing regulatory and oversight frameworks. However, this assessment is subject to change and should not prevent the ECB from continuing to monitor crypto-assets, raise awareness and develop preparedness.

Conditionality is at the very heart of IMF lending and has been the subject of intense debates ever since the Fund's inception. Its success is of crucial importance not only for countries' chances of achieving the goals of IMF lending programmes, but also for the credibility of the Fund as a trusted adviser. This report provides information and a set of facts on the IMF arrangements approved after the global financial crisis, with a focus on ex post conditionality and on arrangements primarily financed through the General Resources Account (GRA). The analysis shows that between 2008 and 2018, the characteristics of IMF programmes evolved with the macroeconomic context; in particular, a tendency towards more structural conditionality and longer programme implementation horizons has emerged. In the aftermath of an IMF programme, all relevant macroeconomic variables tend to improve compared with the pre-programme period; in particular, external and fiscal positions improve considerably and growth typically rebounds, inflation declines and net private capital inflows stabilise or recover slightly. However, the improvement has generally fallen short of expectations, especially in terms of GDP growth and debt reduction. One area in which the effectiveness of IMF programmes has proven less than satisfactory is with serial borrowers, i.e. countries that fail to graduate from IMF financial assistance in due course. This highlights the importance of further analysing the factors behind the success of IMF programmes and points, inter alia, to the need to design and sequence the structural conditions attached to Fund loans more effectively

The last decade has been characterised by the pronounced volatility of capital flows. While cross-border capital flows can have many benefits for both advanced and emerging market economies, they may also carry risks, which require appropriate policy responses. Disentangling the push from the pull factors driving capital flows is key to designing appropriate policies to deal with them. Strong institutions, sound fundamentals and a large domestic investor base tend to shield economies from adverse global conditions and attract less volatile types of capital. However, when the policy space for using traditional macroeconomic policies is limited, countries may also turn to macroprudential and capital flow management policies in a pragmatic manner. The IMF can play an important role in helping countries to deal with capital flows, through its surveillance and lending policy and through international cooperation.

The International Monetary Fund has significantly improved its surveillance of the EU and the euro area, along the lines suggested by the Fund’s 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review and in application of its 2012 Integrated Surveillance Decision. Nonetheless, there is still margin for further enhancing IMF surveillance of the EU and the euro area. This report by the Task Force on IMF Issues of the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks was prepared with the aim of contributing to the preparation of and debate on the 2014 IMF Triennial Surveillance Review. JEL Classification: F42, F53

Artículo de revista

Defence date: 04/06/2009 Examining Board: Prof. Claudia Buch, Universität Tübingen; Prof. Giancarlo Corsetti, EUI, supervisor; Dr. Marcel Fratzscher, European Central Bank; Prof. Morten Ravn, EUI and University of Southampton PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses This thesis is a collection of three empirical papers in international economics. The first paper discusses the suitability of fixed-basket price indexes to provide accurate macroeconomic description in countries where the scope for variety change is particularly large, such as the transition countries. Price-mismeasurement has important implications for the assessment of inflation, real growth, welfare, terms of trade and the real exchange rate behaviour. The following two papers use firm-level data from several countries in Europe and Asia to provide novel stylised facts on the importing behaviour of firms, and to examine the specific firm-level characteristics that are likely to be correlated with access to credit markets. Chapter 1 studies the impact of imported variety expansion on prices and welfare in two Eastern European countries, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Using detailed information on import volumes, disaggregated by product-categories and supplying countries, the chapter first documents that the sharp increase in trade with the rest of the world since the start of the transition process has been accompanied by a similar increase in imported variety. The chapter then follows the methodology of Feenstra (1994) and Broda and Weinstein (2004) and computes the bias in the import price index that is due to ignoring variety change over nine years, from 1995 to 2004. It finds that the conventional price index overstates import price inflation by around 1% per year in Hungary and 0.5% per year in the Czech Republic, equivalent to a cumulative of 8.4% and 4.2%, respectively, over the entire period. Due to the sector-level nature of the dataset and its not so low level of aggregation, as well as to the geographical concentration of these countries’ imports, these estimates are likely to be a lower bound. Chapter 2 uses firm-level data from 11 countries in Europe and Asia to provide a set of novel stylised facts on the importing behaviour of firms. The data is collected from two rounds of the "Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey" (BEEPS), a cross- country survey of individual firms conducted by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank in 2001 and 2004. Firms using imported intermediate inputs are found to be a distinct group from the firms that only use domestic inputs in their production process. Importers are larger, more productive, more capital-intensive and more skill-intensive than non-importers. Importers are also significantly more likely to introduce new product varieties, invest in research and development, provide formal training to their workers and upgrade their production technology. These differences are robust to controlling for alternative ways in which firms are exposed to foreign markets, such as exporting, being foreign-owned or supplying to multinational firms. The third chapter uses the same firm-level dataset as chapter 2, but exploits a different set of questions contained in the BEEPS questionnaire. Specifically, it takes advantage of the fact that firms are asked detailed questions about their borrowing behaviour and financing patterns, and directly identifies those firms which are shut o¤ from financial markets. The chapter then studies those firm-level characteristics that are likely to affect the probability of being credit constrained. It finds that the variables capturing the severity of informational asymmetries present in financial markets are large and significant predictors of access to credit. The chapter represents an attempt to study liquidity constraints at firm level, from a perspective that is different from the standard "investment-cash flow sensitivity" literature. -- Variety expansion and themeasurement of prices and welfare in transition countries -- International trade and economic performance : more heterogeneity uncovered -- Who is credit constrained in the transition economies?