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In late 2019 and early 2020, a sudden but not unexpected external shock occurred in the tourism industry. This study presents an explorative analysis of the literature review discussing a predicted exogenous shock in tourism caused by the appearance of viruses. Furthermore, the vector autoregressive (V.A.R.) models and panel econometrics is used to analyse and model the impact of the COVID-19 pandemics on tourist arrivals in Slovenia and Croatia. Applied analysis is used to test tourism artefacts in the short term on daily data for 2020. The results of econometric modelling and data plotting confirm significant volatilities in the analysed timeseries and their peculiar response to the influence of the COVID19 pandemic on tourist arrivals. Therefore, innovative tourism policy and management should not expect pre-pandemic values and demand ; moreover, tourist expectations will change drastically in a calamitous decade, while several other determinants, not only COVID-19, will influence tourist arrivals. The study is novel in two respects. First, the study adds value to empirical research on the determinants of tourism demand. Moreover, the study can be considered a starting point for further short-, medium- and longterm econometric analyses of sudden shocks affecting tourism demand and government decisions affecting tourism supply.

Rad istražuje učinkovitost primjene modela umjetnih neuronskih mreža u modeliranju domaće turističke potražnje u Republici Hrvatskoj, aproksimiranoj brojem dolazaka i brojem ostvarenih noćenja domaćih turista. Indeksi obujma industrijske proizvodnje, indeksi potrošačkih cijena, prosječna neto mjesečna plaća, broj zaposlenih te mjesečne sezonske dummy varijable odabrane su kao ulazne varijable. Za modeliranje empirijskih podataka korištene su mreže višeslojnog perceptrona. Prognostička moć modela evaluirana je prosječnom apsolutnom postotnom te prosječnom apsolutnom prognostičkom pogreškom, Pearsonovim koeficijentom korelacije te koeficijentom determinacije. Evaluacija dobivenih rezultata pokazala je kako su odabrani modeli višeslojnih perceptrona pouzdani za modeliranje domaće turističke potražnje, iako je istraživanje temeljeno na ograničenom, manjem broju podataka te broju ulaznih varijabli. Polazeći od rezultata, ali i ograničenja istraživanja, zaključuje se kako modeli umjetnih neuronskih mreža posjeduju značajne aplikativne potencijale u domeni modeliranja i prognoziranja vremenskih nizova broja dolazaka i noćenja domaćih turista u Republici Hrvatskoj., The paper investigates the efficiency of artificial neural networks in modelling domestic tourist demand in the Republic of Croatia, approximated by the number of arrivals and the number of realized overnight stays of domestic tourists. Industrial production volume indices, consumer price indices, average net monthly wages, the number of employees and the monthly seasonal dummy variables were selected as input variables. Two multilayer perceptrons neural networks models were used to model empirical data. The model predictive efficiency was evaluated using the mean average, mean absolute percentage, mean squared root forecast errors, as well as the coefficient of determination and the Pearsons correlation coefficient. The obtained results evaluation showed that the selected multilayer perceptrons models are reliable for modelling domestic tourism demand, although the research is based on a limited small amount of data as well as the number of input variables. Given the research results, as well as the research limitations, it can be concluded that the artificial neural networks models have significant application potentials in modelling time-series of arrivals and overnight stays of domestic tourists in the Republic of Croatia.

Food consumption surveys are very often used to identify adequate nutrition diet according to some region specification and budget constraints. This paper analyses and compares the food consumption and the optimal structure of the food basket in Bosnia & Herzegovina and Croatia. The analysis is done using nutritional modelling with linear programming. The idea is to form and compare food baskets in these two countries, according to different nutrition and traditional constraint. The different food baskets are formed using adequate average adult person daily nutritional needs and specific food consumption in the country. Every formed food basked is connected with different linear programming models. The data used for the models consisted of 88 food items from the general consumption of the population of Bosnia & Herzegovina and Croatia, according to COICOP classifications and HBS survey, with average prices in 2015 for these products.

This study provides an econometric model helpful to analyse and understand international tourism demand in Croatia. Such, more detailed and systematic studies should be considered as starting points of future macroeconomic development strategies, pricing strategies and tourism sector routing strategies in Croatia, as a predominantly tourism oriented country. Tourism represents a significant source of profit for Croatian economy. Croatia is predominantly an international tourist destination, in fact international tourists account for a ((% of total tourists number. The objective of the study is therefore to examine determinants and functional form of international tourism demand in Croatia. The econometric estimates showed that the number of tourist abroad departures, tourism price and tourism seasonal character are significant variables in explaining international tourist' number. The present study emphasizes the necessity of more systematic quantitative tourism demand determinants analysis and researches. Econometric modelling should be considered as a significant Croatia's tourism sector development tool.

The aim of the paper is to analyse tourism demand in Croatia and emphasise its seasonal patterns. The Croatian tourism is pronouncedly seasonal sensitive. Due to this fact, in modelling Croatian tourism demand, is necessary to implement quantitative methods that capture its seasonal character. Among the methods that can be used in analysing seasonal data, in this study the ratio-to-moving average method is used. After isolating the seasonal component of tourism demand several extrapolative methods were used with the purpose to model the number of tourist arrivals in Croatia ; Naïve 1, Naïve 2, single moving average, weighted moving average, single exponential smoothing, Browns double exponential smoothing and the autoregressive method. The monthly tourist arrivals in Croatia in the period from January 2003 to December 2013 are used as a commonly measure of tourism demand. The analysed data indicate the seasonal character of Croatian tourism demand. Taking this into account, the authors first isolated the seasonal component and emphasised the residual effects on the movement of the tourist demand. The-ratio-to-moving-average method is explained in detail and implemented to tourist arrivals data obtained from the secondary data sources. After modelling the seasonally adjusted values of tourist arrivals, chosen methods were evaluated by forecasting accuracy measure, the mean absolute percentage error – MAPE. Finally, at the end of the paper, the authors point out the importance of analysing seasonal phenomena, such as tourism demand, with the appropriate methods which take into account the seasonal component of the phenomenon itself.

The tourism sector has experienced several significant changes over the past decades due to the strong development of the information and communication technologies (ICT). The technological revolution experienced through the development of the Internet has changed dramatically the market conditions for tourism organizations. ICTs evolve rapidly providing new tools for tourism development and rerouting. As known, tourism is defined and characterized by the demand side, it is therefore important to detect and define the various factors that determine it. Tourism demand modeling and forecasting have been an issue under examination in many researches. A large number of econometrics studies used, both time series and econometric approaches to model and forecast tourism demand and its various determinants. As known, tourism demand can be defined as a set of goods and services that people acquire to accomplish their journeys, expressed in term of quantity. Among different factors that influence tourism demand income, prices, substitute pries, and other variable are mentioned as determining measures or explanatory variables that affect the quantity of goods or services purchased. On the other side of the tourism demand function, as the dependent variable, most commonly the number of tourists or the number of tourists overnights are investigated. The paper presents the authors endeavor to express a theoretical e − tourism demand model, as a mathematical function that indicates the presence of a relationship between the dependent variable, expressed by the number of tourists’ overnight stays and a number of commonly used explanatory variables. Due to the growing importance of the information and communication technology and its great influence on the tourism sector, the authors research the possibilities of adding some additional supplementary independent variables i.e. the number of internet users, the number of overnights stays that were booked online or the number of online reservations to stress and represent the significant role play by the information and communication technology in determining the e-tourism demand.

The paper deals with tourism and its economic effects, which are rightly considered significant but cannot be neither accurately measured nor their modes of occurrence described, i.e. qualified and valued. Its goal is to indicate the problem of keeping track of only macroeconomic physical indicators of Croatian tourism today, not exceeding the framework of the simplest numeric expressions, numbers, and their various relationships. To those, the indicators of both direct and indirect employment are added, along with the achieved average consumption and foreign exchange inflow also subject to assessment rather than to unique methodological basis and exact value used by particular institutions and individuals when presenting in public. This means tourism within the Republic of Croatia is still almost exclusively observed and assessed through physical indicators of the obtained number of tourist and nights, with its development goals understandably established in the same way. Such statistic data question not only their reliable and questionable use, but also credibility and consistency of tourism policy managed on such grounds. Apart from explaining the concept and importance of the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). The authors conclude stating the necessity of thorough review of the existing statistical and data monitoring of tourism i.e. of tourism economy, and its adaptation and adjustment to the equivalent and already standardized procedures in all the most important tourism states and World and European tourist subjects and institutions, in order to produce the Tourism Satellite Account.

Logistics can be understood as a part of supply chain processes that plans and controls profitability of flows and storage of goods, services and information, from starting point to the place of consumption in order to meet customers’ needs. Researcher and practitioners investigates the various processes within supply chains individually. The great attention is placed on analysis of concept of the supply chain as a whole, but also on its performances and design. This paper underlines the importance of supply chain management, and provides detailed description of nature of supply chains as element of tourism destination management. In this paper, authors provide taxonomy with which to map and evaluate supply chain management in tourism destination. Thus, the main purposes of the survey are to look at some major issues in supply chain management, to present a framework of supply chain management in service sectors (such tourism) and present supply chains effectiveness measurements. The first part of the paper, Definition and concept of supply chain management, discuss the main concepts of supply chain and in which ways it can be defined. In the second part of the paper, The supply chain management in tourism industry, is defined supply chain management in context of tourism industry and which of main characteristics of supply affects on supply chains. The third part, The measures of tourism supply chain efficiency and effectiveness, discusses main approaches - qualitative and quantitative - of measuring performances of tourism supply chains.

Tourism is the most important economic sector in Croatia and a significant source of profit for a wide range of activities. Croatia is predominantly a service-based economy, with the service sector accounting for about 60% of the total Gross Domestic Product. Among the service industries, tourism, above all, contributes to almost 20% of the Croatia’s Gross Domestic Product. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the importance of tourism for Croatia’s future economic development. The enhancement of Croatian tourism competitiveness is based on a set of policy goals postulated by official institutions and bodies, i.e. to profile Croatia as one of the high-quality tourist destinations in the Mediterranean and Europe, to increase earnings by rising the spending in tourism, to extend the tourist season, and to develop a sustainable and competitive tourism. The achievement of such and other tourism development goals necessitates of a synergic action of all counterparts and stakeholders involved in the tourism sector, but above all it necessitates of an accurate and combined qualitative and quantitative analysis, modelling and forecasting. Based on those premises the paper investigates the application of time-series based quantitative methods in Croatian tourism demand modelling and forecasting. In the literature there emerge two categories of quantitative methods, the time-series models and the econometric approaches which analyse the casual relationship between the dependent and the explanatory variables. The paper researches the potentials of time-series models in analysing and researching tourism demand with a particular attention on tourism demand in Croatia, as a significant international tourism destination. Time-series models, and mostly the integrated autoregressive moving-average models (ARIMA), have been widely used in the past for tourism demand modelling and forecasting. Models and accurate forecasts of tourism demand provide crucial information for tourism policymaking in both, government and business sectors. Modelling and forecasting are important elements in tourism demand planning, designing, routing and enhancing. One of the primary challenges facing tourism management and development is to produces systematic, prompt and accurate tourism demand forecasts. Time series analysis should be considered a tool for explaining, researching and forecasting tourist demand in Croatia, as it certainly allows extracting the maximum amount of meaningful and comprehensive information contained in the empirical tourism demand series in order to provide models and accurate forecasts and future development plans.

Internet is undoubtedly, the most significant nowadays global social phenomenon. Internet, sometimes called simply "the Net, " is a worldwide system of computer networks. It was conceived in 1969 and since that it assumed unthinkable proportions. The Internet, as a global and certainly controversial media, as well as its usage and its impact on everyday life, is nowadays an issue of great interests and researches. The Internet usage statistics, among others, provides information on the number of Internet users worldwide and is a significant source of other information regarding this modern social phenomenon. According to the Internet usage statistics in June 2010 there were 1, 966 millions of Internet users worldwide. Assuming that, the rise of the Internet dramatically changed the modern ways of communication, its better understanding, certainly requests detailed and systematic qualitative and quantitative analysis. Based on those premises, the aim of the paper is to quantitatively approach the analysis of the temporary evolution of the number of Internet users and to provide a forecast of the future usage evolution of the phenomenon.

The signing of the Bologna Declaration and Croatia’s imminent accession to the European Union set up new challenges for the Croatian higher educational system, in which reforms were needed, in the endeavour of creating a successful and international competitive knowledge-based society. Following the main goal and the specified objectives of the Bologna Declaration, Croatia initiated a series of reforms of its higher educational system. The higher education system restructuring and adapting process was aimed at creating a new coherent educational framework suitable for achieving the European educational standards throughout the embracement of the European Higher Education three studying cycles, the so called Bachelor-Master-Doctor system, the adoption of the ECTS credit system, the introduction of a new internationally recognizable and comparable degree system, the implementation of a standardized quality assurance system, the improvement of the quality of the academic programmes and their modernization, and the enablement of academic staff and students mobility. In the century of knowledge we live, higher education is the major initiator of positive changes and development. Over the coming period, Croatian higher education system, should successfully meet new social and economic requirements and challenges of a knowledge-based society. The pursuit of European educational standards should be a priority of all future Croatian developing strategies and a continuous process of seeking educational excellence as the fundament of further successful euro integration of the country. Based on those premises the paper aims to introduce and analyse the current status of the Croatian higher education system on the eve of accession to the European Union and offers an insight into the so far carried out and realized reforms and changes and achieved goals.

Tourism is a complex modern, global, economic and social phenomenon that deserves to be analysed and investigated according to its manifold aspects and different faceting. Due to this great relevance and complexity, tourism management, investigation and evaluation necessitate a more detailed, systematic and above all an interdisciplinary approach. In traditionally tourism oriented countries, countries that found their future development and economic progress on tourism, the tourism statistics system should be considered as a milestone for further tourism sector routing, development and improvement. Based on those premises, the paper investigates the potentials and the characteristics of an optimal tourism statistics system, as the core prerequisite for analysing, evaluating and estimating the tourism phenomenon and its various aspects. The paper gives an insight into the needed basic features of an optimal tourism statistics system that should be capable to point out all relevant aspects of the phenomenon, with the purpose of its better understanding and improvement. An optimally organised and designed tourism statistics system should assure the acquiring, not just of simple statistical data, but of comprehensive information and organised data sets, capable to deepen phenomenon’s knowledge and consciousness and the establishment of useful links and mutual connections, in order to improve the decision-making process and advance the field of tourism.

Tourism is one of the largest industries in world. With rising income levels, more leisure time, increases in life expectancy, advances in technology, and in shrinking of travel time, tourism is expected to assume a fast growing trend in the future. This substantial growth makes tourism one of the most remarkable and complex economic and social phenomenon of the century. In this context, tourist destinations marketing strategies become increasingly important. It’s truer in traditionally tourism oriented countries, like Italy and Croatia which are important destinations of international tourism, and where tourism is the most propulsive sector and the promoter of economic and social development. But appropriate marketing strategies need high quality tourism statistics and an adequately organised statistical system. Tourism statistics and statistical data assume a significant role in the process of decision making and tourism sector improvement. Based on those premises this study compares tourism inbound data across the two Mediterranean countries, and in particular investigates inbound tourism statistics, data sources and data collection procedures, in order to improve data quality in tourism and draw, from the analysis, implications for marketing and destination management improvement of both considered countries.

The Republico of Croatia has a total of 93 voccational schools for professions in hospitality and tourism: chef, waiter, pastry- chef, hotel and tourism technician, and hotel and tourism sales officier. Evidetntly, the outcome of such a wide dispersion of educational institutions can ony be a decline in the quality of the teaching process. While there is obviously no lack of secondary schools in the field of hospitaltiy and tourism, the skills of pupils graduating from these schools are dubious in the opinion of many tourism and hospitaltiy professionals.It is assumed that the causes behind the adverse results of the enitire secondary schooling system lie in the lack of motivation in young people, who are likely to erol in a vocational school only after they have feiled to enrol in the secondary school of their choice. The educational system in Croatia needs to undergo through change. Or, rather, it needs to adapt to European educational standards, because after the flow of services and goods with the EU, the flow of labour is to be expected, which will demand standard education for various levels and profiles of personnel, at least with regard to basic core subjects. On the other hand, there is a need to integrate hospitality Schools in Croatia to create strong and well equpped county centers for the schoolilng of future workers in tourism and hospitality. This paper seeks to put forward concrete solutions for reorganising the Croatian schooling system for the needs of tourism and hospitaltiy and to meet the demands of modern tourism practice.

Povećanje učinkovitosti visokoga obrazovanja za turizam mora se temeljiti na detaljnoj analizi stvarnih potreba tržišta rada te suvremenih razvojnih tendencija, jer je suradnja obrazvonih institucija i prakse jedina dugoročno valjana osnova uspjeha.

The paper offers an insight into the present status of Croatia’s tourism higher education. The relevance of Croatia’s tourism higher education is significantly correlated to the importance of the tourism sector for country’s economic development. In fact, Croatia is predominantly a service-based economy, with the service sector accounting for about of 60% of the total Gross Domestic Product. Among the service industries, tourism, above all, contributes to almost 20% of the Croatia’s Gross Domestic Product. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the importance of tourism for Croatia’s future economic development. It is a common knowledge that, tourism is a work-intensive economic sector and that its development and competitiveness imply the presence of well educated and highly qualified managers and professionals involved in its designing and improvement. Based on those premises ; the paper investigates the structure and the organisation of tourism higher education in Croatia and gives an overview of the number and types of tourism higher education institutions and tourism related study programmes currently performed in Croatia.

Mnogobrojna su istraživanja i studije pokazali kako postoji relevantna povezanost između koncentracije ugljičnog dioksida, CO2, u atmosferi i atmosferske temperature na zemlji. Polazeći od navedene hipoteze u radu je primjenom jednostavnog regresijskog modela potvrđena navedena hipoteza. Razvijeni model dokazao je kako porast koncentracije ugljičnog dioksida doprinosi porastu prosječne globalne atmosferske temperature na Zemlji. U radu je, kroz nekoliko logično povezanih koraka, prikazana metodologija ekonometrijskog istraživanja, koja se uobičajeno koristi kao svojevrsni opći teorijski okvir ekonometrijskih istraživanja i analiza. U svrhu testiranja teorijske ishodišne hipoteze o učincima stakleničkih plinova i postavki u odnosima, korišten jednostavni linearni regresijski model. Konstruiranim regresijskim modelom s dvije varijable nastojalo se dokazati da povišenje razine koncentracije ugljičnog dioksida, kao reprezentativnog primjera stakleničkih plinova, utječe na povišenje prosječne globalne temperature. Ekonometrijski model, u ovom radu, poslužio je za dokazivanje nekih ekoloških hipoteza o kojima se sve više i žustrije raspravlja i polemizira, ali i nedovoljno djeluje u smislu osviještenosti ljudske civilizacije o nepredvidljivim i katastrofalnim posljedicama koje mogu slijediti.

Latvia and Croatia are two young European transitional countries. According to the classification made by the World Bank on the basis of income and region for the year 2006, Latvia and Croatia were classified as upper middle-income economies coming under Europe and Central Asian region. As a result of the global financial and economic crisis both countries entered in a phase of recession. The aim of the paper is to present the socio-demographic and the economic profile of Latvia and Croatia and to research the economic realities of the countries.

The development and the stimulation of tourism competitiveness does not necessarily include only the natural resources and the improvement of the tourist offer, but asks above all for well trained managers and experts capable to operate and interwork in a turbulent environment. Starting from the definitions of tourism and hospitality, and considering their peculiarities as customer-driven and work- intensive industries, it is obvious that human resources, their competence, skills and knowledge are the main prerequisites of success. It is therefore justified to claim that the existence of adequately trained and educated personnel leads to a better satisfaction of tourist and guest wishes and needs and consequently to better business results and development. Education is, under current Croatian scientific-technological circumstances, the precondition and the leading factor of economic development and has become one of the main development issue, thus the quality of human capital becomes an important development resource. It represents the most important non tangible investment and the condicio sine qua non for development. Based on the importance of tourism and education for Croatian economic development, the paper is an overview of Croatian education for tourism and hospitality. It analyzes the structure, the number, and the spatial distribution of secondary schools and of higher education institutions that provide a degree on tourism and hospitality. There are 93 vocational schools in Croatia, all offering courses leading to professions in tourism and hospitality industry. In the higher education institutions, there are departments within faculties and business schools offering programs on catering, tourism and hospitality, but only the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management of Opatija, University of Rijeka, is entirely oriented and dedicated to the education of managers and professional in tourism and hospitality. On the assumption that, tourism and hospitality industry are the most propulsive Croatian economic sectors, it is important to investigate if the number and the distribution of vocational schools and high institutions dealing with tourism and hospitality education is satisfying, to examine the characteristics of their teaching curriculums and most of all modalities of pupils/student’s transition from school to work as well as students’ motivation in undertaking a carrier in the field of tourism and hospitality. The aim of the paper is to investigate the advantages and the disadvantages of studying tourism and hospitality in Croatia, to give an oversight of the present situation and to propose some guidelines for the future.

The paper is an overview of previous researches on the topic of using regression analysis in statistical control charts. In those researches the authors investigated how to combine regression analysis and control charts in order to obtain a powerful tool of controlling two correlated variables. The paper points out the multiple possibilities and the wide applicability of regression control charts in educational process monitoring, improvement and control. The paper represents an outline of previous studies on regression control charts conducted by several authors. The aim of the paper was to research the applicability of regression control charts in educational process control, improvement and forecasting. The research premises were that tourism is an important sector of Croatian economy and that education is a precondition of tourism improvement.

The choice of undergraduate studies is one of the most demanding issues that face individuals, especially younger ones upon leaving secondary school, whose wish it is to continue on to an institute of higher education. Numerous factory, ranging from the characteristics of the individual to the immediate and extended encironment, can influence the choice of undergraduate studies. There are many ways to address this issue. In this paper, it is explored within the framework of decision analysis and from the viewpoint that regards decision-making as non-recurring i.e. as a series of new problem situation. This approach to the choice of undergraduate studies as a decision-making problem involves the clarity of the objective of studies, the alternative choices of studies considered, the approach applied to considering these alternatives, the criteria used in making a choice, the influence of knowledge and information in the choice of undergraduate studies, the impact of the environment, and controlling the decision process through specific action in case of deviation from the anticipated goal. Theoretical considerations have been complemented with a statistical analysis of the approach to the choice of undergraduate studies as a process of decision-making provided by the first-year students of the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management (FTHM) in Opatija. Statistical analysis has provided statistically significant differences in responses with regard to gender, and the type and location of the secondary school attended. The results of this research show that the young people of Croatia approach the issue of choosing undergraduate studies in a serious manner, at least in the case of FTHM. This is illustrated in the way they collect information regarding the options available to them, and how they generate alternatives regarding different aspect of schooling and how they make their choice. The results also suggest that the issue of providing pertinent information regarding the undergraduate studies offered by individuals school should be more properly addressed and that information should be made available during the entire year and not only in the time preceding the choice of undergraduate studies, wich is generally the case.

High education is one of the fundamental development factors which should guarantee a sustainable development, and a successful long- term Croatian economic and social growth. High educational institutions should provide the possibility to acquire general and specific knowledge, skills and competences and to shape managers and professionals which are at the bottom of the future successful Croatian development. Educational processes should be, therefore adequately designed, monitored, controlled and improved in order to be flexible and capable to generate wanted outputs. The paper is an overview of some quantitative methods than can be used in educational process improvement. The utilization of these methods can improve the educational process, bring it closer to student’s expectations and adjust it to the labor market needs. Among numerous methods of educational process control and improvement, regression control charts, can be pointed out. The paper is therefore, an attempt to discuss the combination of regression analysis and standard control charts applied to the educational process control and improvement.