Search

Your search keyword '"Balcilar, Mehmet"' showing total 626 results
Start Over Author "Balcilar, Mehmet"
626 results on '"Balcilar, Mehmet"'

9. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand

Author

Aye, Goodness C., Balcilar, Mehmet, Bosch, Adél, Gupta, Rangan, and Stofberg, Francois

Subjects
Real exchange rate, Transaction costs, Band-threshold autoregressive model, Exponential smooth transition autoregressive model, Point forecast, Interval forecast, Density forecast, South Africa, Economics as a science, HB71-74
Abstract

This paper analyses the out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear vs. linear models for the South African rand against the United States dollar and the British pound, in real terms. We compare the forecasting performance of point, interval and density forecasts for non-linear Band-TAR and ESTAR models to linear autoregressive models. Our data spans from 1970:01 to 2012:07, and we found that there are no significant gains from using either the Band-TAR or ESTAR non-linear models, compared to the linear AR model in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance, especially at short horizons. We draw similar conclusions to other literature, and find that for the South African rand against the United States dollar and British pound, non-linearities are too weak for Band-TAR and ESTAR models to estimate.

Published
2013

17. On the Impact of Climate Change Policies on the Clean Technology Innovation: Evidence from Patent Data Analysis

Author

Balcilar Mehmet and Agan Busra

Subjects
clean and dirty innovation, climate change, climate change mitigation policies, copula, environmental policy, nonparametric dependence test, nonparametric quantile regression, sustainable development, Renewable energy sources, TJ807-830
Abstract

This study investigates the role of environmental policies and regulations in mitigating climate change by promoting clean innovations and discouraging dirty ones. Utilizing nonparametric copula and quantile estimation techniques, along with carefully constructed innovation variables based on patents from 2000 to 2021 across 34 countries, the research examines the effects of policy interventions and external events on energy-related innovations. Findings reveal that climate policy interventions effectively promote clean innovation, particularly at higher levels, and discourage dirty innovations. Therefore, climate change policies and regulations are crucial in achieving net-zero carbon emission targets.

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

28. Identifying the Key Drivers in Energy Technology Fields: The Role of Spillovers and Public Policies.

Author

Balcilar, Mehmet and Agan, Busra

Abstract

This study investigates the salient roles of knowledge spillover and environmental policies on clean technology innovation. Employing a panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) and connectedness network analysis with a comprehensive longitudinal dataset comprising 100 million patent documents across 26 countries, the study identifies clean technology fields that are most efficient in driving innovation and subsequently quantifies the spillover effects for each field. The impact of public environmental policies and regulations on clean technological innovations is also examined in depth. The results reveal that clean innovation is a complex and nuanced system, with significant knowledge spillovers occurring within and across energy and non-energy-related clean technology fields. The results also show that environmental policies significantly influence clean innovation, with technology support and adoption support policies having the most substantial impact. Furthermore, the results reveal that the impact of market-based policies on clean innovation is weaker than that of non-market-based policies, which is an important consideration for policymakers. The findings hold significance for policymakers in addressing sustainability goals and their implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results