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We show how dynamic heterogeneities (DH), a hallmark of glass-forming materials, depend on chain flexibility and chain length in polymers. For highly flexible polymers, a relatively large number of monomers ($N_c\sim500$) undergo correlated motion at the glass transition temperature $T_g$, independent of molecular weight ($M$). In contrast, less flexible polymers show a complex $N_c(M)$ behaviour divided into three regimes, consistent with observation in both $T_g(M)$ and chain conformational structure. For short oligomers ($\lesssim$ 2 Kuhn steps), a transition from mainly $\it{inter}$molecular correlations and $N_c\sim 200$, to strongly $\it{intra}$molecular correlations and $N_c< 50$ (roughly the molecular size) is observed; for longer chains, $N_c$ increases weakly, before saturating. For poly(methyl methacrylate), a remarkable similarity is found between $N_c(M)$ and the $M$-dependent ratio of the activation barriers of the structural ($\alpha$) and secondary ($\beta$) relaxations. Our results suggest a link between the DH length-scale and the number of $\beta$ relaxation events jointly-activated to facilitate the $\alpha$ relaxation., Comment: Main manuscript: 8 pages, 5 figures; Supplementary: 9 pages, 8 figures and 1 table

We propose a novel means of directly measuring cosmological distances using scintillated microlensing of fast radio bursts (FRBs). In standard strong lensing measurements of cosmic expansion, the main source of systematic uncertainty lies in modeling the mass profile of galactic halos. Using extra-galactic stellar microlensing to measure the Hubble constant avoids this systematic uncertainty as the lens potential of microlenses depends only on a single parameter: the mass of the lens. FRBs, which may achieve nanosecond precision on lensing time delays, are well-suited to precision measurements of stellar microlensing, for which the time delays are on the order of milliseconds. However, typical angular separations between the microlensed images on the order of microarcseconds make the individual images impossible to spatially resolve with ground-based telescopes. We propose leveraging scintillation in the ISM to resolve the microlensed images, effectively turning the ISM into an astrophysical-scale interferometer. Using this technique, we estimate a 6\% uncertainty on $H_0$ from a single observed scintillated microlensing event, with a sub-percent uncertainty on $H_0$ achievable with only 30 such events. With an optical depth for stellar microlensing of $10^{-3}$, this may be achievable in the near future with upcoming FRB telescopes.

In this paper, we introduce a method to optimally estimate time-varying frequency bias. Current industry practice is to assume that frequency bias is changing only on annual basis. We suggest that this improved time-dependent bias estimate can be used to reduce the cost of frequency regulation needed to meet industry standards requested by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Optimization of time-varying frequency bias is posed as a parameter estimation (calibration) problem whose implementation utilizes online system measurements. It is further shown how this result can be used to estimate intra-dispatch load deviations. This knowledge is needed to estimate more accurately regulation reserve needed, and to therefore reduce overall regulation cost. Methods can be introduced to give incentives to demand response to participate in frequency regulation. Overall, we show the importance of incorporating knowledge of physics-based models for data-enabled parameter estimation of physical systems.

The scattering structures in the ISM responsible for so-called ``extreme scattering events" (ESEs), observed in quasars and pulsars, remain enigmatic. Current models struggle to explain the high-frequency light curves of ESEs, and a recent analysis of a double lensing event in PSR\,B0834+06 reveals features of ESEs that may also be challenging to accommodate via existing models. We propose that these features arise naturally when the lens has a cusp-like profile, described by the elementary $A_3$ cusp catastrophe. This is an extension of previous work describing pulsar scintillation as arising from $A_2$ fold catastrophes in thin, corrugated plasma sheets along the line of sight. We call this framework of describing the lens potentials via elementary catastrophes ``doubly catastrophic lensing", as catastrophes (e.g. folds and cusps) have long been used to describe universal features in the light curves of lensing events that generically manifest, regardless of the precise details of the lens. Here, we argue that the lenses themselves may be described by these same elementary structures. If correct, the doubly catastrophic lensing framework would provide a unified description of scintillation and ESEs, where the lenses responsible for these scattering phenomena are universal and can be fully described by a small number of unfolding parameters. This could enable their application as giant cosmic lenses for precision measurements of coherent sources, including FRBs and pulsars., Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures

The recent development of $\theta\mhyphen\theta$ techniques in pulsar scintillometry has opened the door for new high resolution imaging techniques of the scattering medium. By solving the phase retrieval problem and recovering the wavefield from a pulsar dynamic spectrum, the Doppler shift, time delay, and phase offset of individual images can be determined. However, the results of phase retrieval from a single dish are only known up to a constant phase rotation, which introduces extra parameters when doing astrometry using Very Long Baseline Interferometry. We present an extension to previous $\theta\mhyphen\theta$ methods using the interferometric visibilities between multiple stations to calibrate the wavefields. When applied to existing data for PSR B0834+06 we measure the effective screen distance and lens orientation with five times greater precision than previous works.

In extreme scattering events, the brightness of a compact radio source drops significantly, as light is refracted out of the line of sight by foreground plasma lenses. Despite recent efforts, the nature of these lenses has remained a puzzle, because any roughly round lens would be so highly overpressurized relative to the interstellar medium that it could only exist for about a year. This, combined with a lack of constraints on distances and velocities, has led to a plethora of theoretical models. We present observations of a dramatic double-lensing event in pulsar PSR~B0834+06 and use a novel phase-retrieval technique to show that the data can be reproduced remarkably well with a two-screen model: one screen with many small lenses and another with a single, strong one. We further show that the latter lens is so strong that it would inevitably cause extreme scattering events. Our observations show that the lens moves slowly and is highly elongated on the sky. If similarly elongated along the line of sight, as would arise naturally from a sheet of plasma viewed nearly edge-on, no large over-pressure is required and hence the lens could be long-lived. Our new technique opens up the possibility of probing interstellar plasma structures in detail, leading to understanding crucial for high-precision pulsar timing and the subsequent detection of gravitational waves.

We present a machine-learning-based model of relativistic electron fluxes >1.8 MeV using a neural network approach in the Earth's outer radiation belt. The Outer RadIation belt Electron Neural net model for Relativistic electrons (ORIENT-R) uses only solar wind conditions and geomagnetic indices as input. For the first time, we show that the state of the outer radiation belt can be determined using only solar wind conditions and geomagnetic indices, without any initial and boundary conditions. The most important features for determining outer radiation belt dynamics are found to be AL, solar wind flow speed and density, and SYM-H indices. ORIENT-R reproduces out-of-sample relativistic electron fluxes with a correlation coefficient of 0.95 and an uncertainty factor of ~2. ORIENT-R reproduces radiation belt dynamics during an out-of-sample geomagnetic storm with good agreement to the observations. In addition, ORIENT-R was run for a completely out-of-sample period between March 2018 and October 2019 when the AL index ended and was replaced with the predicted AL index (lasp.colorado.edu/~lix). It reproduces electron fluxes with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 and an out-of-sample uncertainty factor of ~3. Furthermore, ORIENT-R captured the trend in the electron fluxes from low-earth-orbit (LEO) SAMPEX, which is a completely out-of-sample dataset both temporally and spatially. In sum, the ORIENT-R model can reproduce transport, acceleration, decay, and dropouts of the outer radiation belt anywhere from short timescales (i.e., geomagnetic storms) and very long timescales (i.e., solar cycle) variations., Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures

The CHIME/FRB experiment has detected thousands of Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) due to its sensitivity and wide field of view; however, its low angular resolution prevents it from localizing events to their host galaxies. Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), triggered by FRB detections from CHIME/FRB will solve the challenge of localization for non-repeating events. Using a refurbished 10-m radio dish at the Algonquin Radio Observatory located in Ontario Canada, we developed a testbed for a VLBI experiment with a theoretical ~<30 masec precision. We provide an overview of the 10-m system and describe its refurbishment, the data acquisition, and a procedure for fringe fitting that simultaneously estimates the geometric delay used for localization and the dispersive delay from the ionosphere. Using single pulses from the Crab pulsar, we validate the system and localization procedure, and analyze the clock stability between sites, which is critical for phase-referencing an FRB event. We find a localization of 50 masec is possible with the performance of the current system. Furthermore, for sources with insufficient signal or restricted wideband to simultaneously measure both geometric and ionospheric delays, we show that the differential ionospheric contribution between the two sites must be measured to a precision of 1e-8 pc/cc to provide a reasonable localization from a detection in the 400--800 MHz band. Finally we show detection of an FRB observed simultaneously in the CHIME and the Algonquin 10-m telescope, the first FRB cross-correlated in this very long baseline. This project serves as a testbed for the forthcoming CHIME/FRB Outriggers project., Comment: Accepted for publication by AJ

The parabolic structure of the secondary or conjugate spectra of pulsars is often the result of isolated one-dimensional (or at least highly anisotropic) lenses in the ISM. The curvature of these features contains information about the velocities of the Earth, ISM, and pulsar along the primary axis of the lens. As a result, measuring variations in the curvature over the course of a year, or the orbital period for pulsars in binaries, can constrain properties of the screen and pulsar. In particular the pulsar distance and orbital inclination for binary systems can be found for multiple screens or systems with prior information on $\sin(i)$. By mapping the conjugate spectra into a space where the main arc and inverted arclets are straight lines, we are able to make use of the full information content from the inverted arclet curvatures, amplitudes, and phases using eigenvectors to uniquely and optimally retrieve phase information. This allows for a higher precision measurement than the standard Hough transform for systems where these features are available. Our technique also directly yields the best fit 1D impulse response function for the interstellar lens given in terms of the Doppler shift, time delay, and magnification of images on the sky as seen from a single observatory. This can be extended for use in holographic imaging of the lens by combining multiple telescopes. We present examples of this new method for both simulated data and actual observations of PSR B0834+06.

Many experimental paradigms in neuroscience involve driving the nervous system with periodic sensory stimuli. Neural signals recorded using a variety of techniques will then include phase-locked oscillations at the stimulation frequency. The analysis of such data often involves standard univariate statistics such as T-tests, conducted on the Fourier amplitude components (ignoring phase), either to test for the presence of a signal, or to compare signals across different conditions. However, the assumptions of these tests will sometimes be violated because amplitudes are not normally distributed, and furthermore weak signals might be missed if the phase information is discarded. An alternative approach is to conduct multivariate statistical tests using the real and imaginary Fourier components. Here the performance of two multivariate extensions of the T-test are compared: Hotelling's $T^2$ and a variant called $T^2_{circ}$. A novel test of the assumptions of $T^2_{circ}$ is developed, based on the condition index of the data (the square root of the ratio of eigenvalues of a bounding ellipse), and a heuristic for excluding outliers using the Mahalanobis distance is proposed. The $T^2_{circ}$ statistic is then extended to multi-level designs, resulting in a new statistical test termed $ANOVA^2_{circ}$. This has identical assumptions to $T^2_{circ}$, and is shown to be more sensitive than MANOVA when these assumptions are met. The use of these tests is demonstrated for two publicly available empirical data sets, and practical guidance is suggested for choosing which test to run. Implementations of these novel tools are provided as an R package and a Matlab toolbox, in the hope that their wider adoption will improve the sensitivity of statistical inferences involving periodic data., Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures

We introduce a novel analysis technique for pulsar secondary spectra. The power spectrum of pulsar scintillation (referred to as the "secondary spectrum") shows differential delays and Doppler shifts due to interference from multi-path propagation through the interstellar medium. We develop a transformation which maps these observables to angular coordinates on a single thin screen of phase-changing material. This transformation is possible without degeneracies in the case of a one-dimensional distribution of images on this screen, which is often a successful description of the phenomenon. The double parabolic features of secondary spectra are transformed into parallel linear features, whose properties we describe in detail. Furthermore, we introduce methods to measure the curvature parameter and the field amplitude distribution of images by applying them to observations of PSR B0834+06. Finally, we extend this formalism to two-dimensional distributions of images on the interstellar screen., Comment: 11 pages, 14 figures, 1 table, v2: matches accepted version

The high kinetic energy electrons that populate the Earth's radiation belts emit synchrotron emissions because of their interaction with the planetary magnetic field. A lunar near side array would be uniquely positioned to image this emission and provide a near real time measure of how the Earth's radiation belts are responding to the current solar input. The Salammbo code is a physical model of the dynamics of the three-dimensional phase-space electron densities in the radiation belts, allowing the prediction of 1 keV to 100 MeV electron distributions trapped in the belts. This information is put into a synchrotron emission simulator which provides the brightness distribution of the emission up to 1 MHz from a given observation point. Using Digital Elevation Models from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) data, we select a set of locations near the Lunar sub-Earth point with minimum elevation variation over various sized patches where we simulate radio receivers to create a synthetic aperture. We consider all realistic noise sources in the low frequency regime. We then use a custom CASA code to image and process the data from our defined array, using SPICE to align the lunar coordinates with the Earth. We find that for a moderate lunar surface electron density of 250/cm^3, the radiation belts may be detected every 12-24 hours with a 16384 element array over a 10 km diameter circle. Changing electron density can make measurements 10x faster at lunar night, and 10x slower at lunar noon., Comment: 23 pages plus references. 3 Tables, 6 Figures

The glass transition is a long-standing unsolved problem in materials science. For polymers, our understanding of glass-formation is particularly poor due to the added complexity of chain connectivity and flexibility; structural relaxation of polymers thus involves a complex interplay between intra- and inter-molecular cooperativity. Here we study how the glass transition temperature Tg varies with molecular weight M for different polymer chemistries and chain flexibilities. We find that Tg(M) is controlled by the average mass (or volume) per conformational degree of freedom, and that a `local' molecular relaxation (involving a few conformers) controls the larger-scale cooperative alpha relaxation responsible for Tg. We propose that dynamic facilitation where a `local' relaxation facilitates adjacent relaxations, leading to hierarchical dynamics, can explain our observations including logarithmic Tg(M) dependences. Our study provides a new understanding of molecular relaxations and the glass transition in polymers, which paves the way for predictive design of polymers based on monomer-scale metrics., Comment: Introduction rewritten to focus more strongly on polymers; added text to discussions for clarity; supplementary Information included as appendices. Accepted for publication in Physical Review X at https://journals.aps.org/prx/accepted/4b07cKc0Z331f103561c78546d4988c9c8237e86b

We initiate the study of coresets for clustering in graph metrics, i.e., the shortest-path metric of edge-weighted graphs. Such clustering problems are essential to data analysis and used for example in road networks and data visualization. A coreset is a compact summary of the data that approximately preserves the clustering objective for every possible center set, and it offers significant efficiency improvements in terms of running time, storage, and communication, including in streaming and distributed settings. Our main result is a near-linear time construction of a coreset for k-Median in a general graph $G$, with size $O_{\epsilon, k}(\mathrm{tw}(G))$ where $\mathrm{tw}(G)$ is the treewidth of $G$, and we complement the construction with a nearly-tight size lower bound. The construction is based on the framework of Feldman and Langberg [STOC 2011], and our main technical contribution, as required by this framework, is a uniform bound of $O(\mathrm{tw}(G))$ on the shattering dimension under any point weights. We validate our coreset on real-world road networks, and our scalable algorithm constructs tiny coresets with high accuracy, which translates to a massive speedup of existing approximation algorithms such as local search for graph k-Median.

When designing experimental studies with human participants, experimenters must decide how many trials each participant will complete, as well as how many participants to test. Most discussion of statistical power (the ability of a study design to detect an effect) has focussed on sample size, and assumed sufficient trials. Here we explore the influence of both factors on statistical power, represented as a two-dimensional plot on which iso-power contours can be visualised. We demonstrate the conditions under which the number of trials is particularly important, i.e. when the within-participant variance is large relative to the between-participants variance. We then derive power contour plots using existing data sets for eight experimental paradigms and methodologies (including reaction times, sensory thresholds, fMRI, MEG, and EEG), and provide example code to calculate estimates of the within- and between-participant variance for each method. In all cases, the within-participant variance was larger than the between-participants variance, meaning that the number of trials has a meaningful influence on statistical power in commonly used paradigms. An online tool is provided (https://shiny.york.ac.uk/powercontours/) for generating power contours, from which the optimal combination of trials and participants can be calculated when designing future studies.

The black hole information paradox presumes that quantum field theory in curved spacetime can provide unitary propagation from a near-horizon mode to an asymptotic Hawking quantum. Instead of invoking conjectural quantum gravity effects to modify such an assumption, we propose a self-consistency check. We establish an analogy to Feynman's analysis of a double-slit experiment. Feynman showed that unitary propagation of the interfering particles, namely ignoring the entanglement with the double-slit, becomes an arbitrarily reliable assumption when the screen upon which the interference pattern is projected is infinitely far away. We argue for an analogous self-consistency check for quantum field theory in curved spacetime. We apply it to the propagation of Hawking quanta and test whether ignoring the entanglement with the geometry also becomes arbitrarily reliable in the limit of a large black hole. We present curious results to suggest a negative answer, and we discuss how this loss of naive unitarity in QFT might be related to a solution of the paradox based on the soft-hair-memory effect.