1. On the Realism of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Global Storm‐Resolving Climate Models.
- Author
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Baker, Alexander J., Vannière, Benoît, and Vidale, Pier Luigi
- Subjects
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CLIMATE change models , *TROPICAL storms , *ATMOSPHERIC models , *STORMS , *GLOBAL warming , *TROPICAL cyclones - Abstract
The physical processes governing a tropical cyclone's lifecycle are largely understood, but key processes occur at scales below those resolved by global climate models. Increased resolution may help simulate realistic tropical cyclone intensification. We examined fully coupled, global storm‐resolving models run at resolutions in the range 28–2.8 km in the atmosphere and 28–5 km in the ocean. Simulated tropical cyclone activity, peak intensity, intensification rate, and horizontal wind structure are all more realistic at a resolution of ∼5 km compared with coarser resolutions. Rapid intensification, which is absent at typical climate model resolutions, is also captured, and exhibits sensitivity to how, and if, deep convection is parameterized. Additionally, the observed decrease in inner‐core horizontal size with increasing intensification rate is captured at storm‐resolving resolution. These findings highlight the importance of global storm‐resolving models for quantifying risk and understanding the role of intense tropical cyclones in the climate system. Plain Language Summary: Simulating strong tropical storms (i.e., major hurricanes, super typhoons) with climate models is challenging because important processes that act to intensify a storm occur over spatial scales that are too small for global models to capture. Typical models lack sufficient resolution in the atmosphere and ocean, often constrained by computational resources. Recently, in a few models, resolution has increased to a point where each grid cell represents an area of just a few square kilometres, a significant leap of one or two orders of magnitude. We analyzed tropical storms simulated by these state‐of‐the‐art, so‐called storm‐resolving models and found that peak tropical storm intensity and the rate at which storms intensify are both more realistic. These models also simulate the rapid intensification of tropical storms and capture the small eye diameters often seen in the most intense storms. Our work provides evidence that storm‐resolving resolution may help us better understand the role of tropical storms in the climate system and predict their behavior in a warming climate. Key Points: Simulated tropical cyclone characteristics analyzed in two fully coupled global climate models at atmospheric resolutions of 28 to 2.8 kmTropical cyclone intensification rate is close to observations at resolutions of 5 km or finer, and rapid intensification is capturedStorm‐resolving models also capture the observed relationship between high intensification rate and small inner‐core size [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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