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This paper presents the results of measuring intersectoral economic and technological effects, allowing to determine the degree of dependence between the segments that produce digital technologies and implement them. The basis for empirical calculations was the survey data of leaders among Russian IT companies and retail organizations on the current state of digital and business activity. The purpose of the work is to identify the presence and establish the strength of the relationship between these segments in terms of existing localized industry effects, expressed in the transfer of technology from the IT segment to retail. The authors of the work identified and tested several specific hypotheses, the general meaning of which was to suggest that retail trade in the current stage of economic development in Russia is susceptible to emerging trends in the rapidly changing IT services sector that can quickly and efficiently respond to the growth of the IT companies digital activity by increasing investments in digital technologies and increasing the intensity of their application in business processes. In particular, hypotheses were tested regarding the impact of business activity in the IT services segment on the growth of electronic commerce turnover, the use of online marketplaces, Big Data technologies, virtual and augmented reality technologies in retail trade organizations, as well as hypotheses suggesting a connection between the development of mobile applications in the IT segment and the use of mobile technologies, expectations regarding the growth of electronic goods turnover in retail organizations. The obtained results confirmed the majority of the hypotheses put forward, thereby supporting the authors’ general assumption about the existence of specific effects of the development of the IT segment on intersectoral technological transfers, revealed the existing specifics of penetration and spread of modern technological trends in trade, and also showed that the IT is currently important component in the process of digital transformation of Russian retail trade organizations.

The paper discusses interregional differentiation in the distribution of electronic purchases among the population in Russia. The aim of the work is to find out what factors are primarily responsible for interregional gaps in the level of online channel use in consumer retail purchases. The study focuses on regional drivers and barriers for the spread of e-commerce. The results show that shares of users of stationary computers (desktops), users of smartphones, and gross regional product per capita are the main positive factors, and lack of trust in e-commerce channels is the main obstacle, while Internet access, age structure, educational level, urbanization, aggregated regional preferences for personal purchases and physical availability of retail trade outlets were found to be irrelevant

This paper investigates the drivers, barriers, and benefits that can be associated with management decisions regarding the implementation of digital technologies in Russian manufacturing enterprises. The empirical basis of the study is the results of the business tendencies surveys for 2018 and 2019. Potential factors for the introduction of digital technologies were divided into three groups: drivers of business activity (production and economic parameters), drivers of digital activity (parameters characterizing the level of enterprise involvement in digital processes) and barriers, preventing the enterprise from transitioning to digital transformation. In the first part, regression analysis is used to identify the relevant factors among the drivers and barriers. In the second part, the benefits expected by enterprise managers from the implementation of individual digital technologies are revealed. Significant drivers are the number of specialists working in the enterprise in the field of information and communication technology (ICT), the presence of a developed strategy in the field of digital technologies, involvement in the government’s digital agenda, and a positive perception of the economic situation at the enterprise by its management. Among the expected benefits, the most important are the optimization of production and logistics operations, increasing the level of customer service and expanding the customer base.

The article proposes a methodology for using macro-level stress testing based on the results of business tendency surveys to study possible scenarios for the development of crisis dynamics triggered by external unforeseen supply and demand shocks, as in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a review of existing approaches in the field of stress testing and building stress indices with an emphasis on methods based on vector autoregressive models and their various modifications. The basis for empirical calculations is data from business tendency surveys of the leaders of Russian manufacturing enterprises, reflecting their combined estimates of the current state of business activity. Based on the results of business tendency surveys, four composite indices were formed reflecting various aspects of business activity of enterprises: demand index, production index, finance index and employment index. Index values calculated monthly from 2008 to March 2020 were used to build the Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR). This model was used to predict the dynamics of indices under the condition of four possible shock scenarios: short-term shock, V-shaped shock, W-shaped shock and U-shaped shock. Moreover, for each of the scenarios, cases of a shock of demand, a shock of production, and a simultaneous shock of demand and production were separately considered. The results indicated the key role of demand in the dynamics of all the indices under consideration, the W-shaped shock, as the worst of the considered scenarios, as well as the relatively greater sensitivity of the employment index to the demand index and the finance index to the production index.

The spread of digital technologies changes production processes and business models, which has important effects for diversification of the economy. The fourth industrial revolution and the Industrial Internet of Things open up new opportunities for the introduction of technologies, having a significant impact on the production cycle, starting with highly automated production lines and ending with the large-scale implementation of technological solutions designed to improve productivity, optimize costs, quality and reliability. Defining digital transformations, primarily in the manufacturing industry as a strategic imperative for the entire economy, for the first time, based on opinions and intentions of entrepreneurs (short and medium-term), key aspects of the digitalization process in Russian medium, high-tech and low-tech manufacturing industries are revealed. A set of tendencies in the development of digital technologies by their main types is presented, the level of industry participation in digital transformation is shown, as well as many other important digital transformation processes in enterprises that are not measured by quantitative statistics. For all the studied industries, factors hindering digital transformation are identified and ranked.