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Seamless forecasting that produces warning information at continuum timescales based on only one system is a long-standing pursuit for weather-climate service. While the rapid advancement of deep learning has induced revolutionary changes in classical forecasting field, current efforts are still focused on building separate AI models for weather and climate forecasts. To explore the seamless forecasting ability based on one AI model, we propose FengWu-Weather to Subseasonal (FengWu-W2S), which builds on the FengWu global weather forecast model and incorporates an ocean-atmosphere-land coupling structure along with a diverse perturbation strategy. FengWu-W2S can generate 6-hourly atmosphere forecasts extending up to 42 days through an autoregressive and seamless manner. Our hindcast results demonstrate that FengWu-W2S reliably predicts atmospheric conditions out to 3-6 weeks ahead, enhancing predictive capabilities for global surface air temperature, precipitation, geopotential height and intraseasonal signals such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Moreover, our ablation experiments on forecast error growth from daily to seasonal timescales reveal potential pathways for developing AI-based integrated system for seamless weather-climate forecasting in the future., Comment: 23 pages,8 figures

Weather radar data synthesis can fill in data for areas where ground observations are missing. Existing methods often employ reconstruction-based approaches with MSE loss to reconstruct radar data from satellite observation. However, such methods lead to over-smoothing, which hinders the generation of high-frequency details or high-value observation areas associated with convective weather. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage diffusion-based method called DiffSR. We first pre-train a reconstruction model on global-scale data to obtain radar estimation and then synthesize radar reflectivity by combining radar estimation results with satellite data as conditions for the diffusion model. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results, demonstrating the ability to generate high-frequency details and high-value areas.

The Earth's weather system encompasses intricate weather data modalities and diverse weather understanding tasks, which hold significant value to human life. Existing data-driven models focus on single weather understanding tasks (e.g., weather forecasting). Although these models have achieved promising results, they fail to tackle various complex tasks within a single and unified model. Moreover, the paradigm that relies on limited real observations for a single scenario hinders the model's performance upper bound. In response to these limitations, we draw inspiration from the in-context learning paradigm employed in state-of-the-art visual foundation models and large language models. In this paper, we introduce the first generalist weather foundation model (WeatherGFM), designed to address a wide spectrum of weather understanding tasks in a unified manner. More specifically, we initially unify the representation and definition of the diverse weather understanding tasks. Subsequently, we devised weather prompt formats to manage different weather data modalities, namely single, multiple, and temporal modalities. Finally, we adopt a visual prompting question-answering paradigm for the training of unified weather understanding tasks. Extensive experiments indicate that our WeatherGFM can effectively handle up to ten weather understanding tasks, including weather forecasting, super-resolution, weather image translation, and post-processing. Our method also showcases generalization ability on unseen tasks.

Large numbers of synthesized videos from diffusion models pose threats to information security and authenticity, leading to an increasing demand for generated content detection. However, existing video-level detection algorithms primarily focus on detecting facial forgeries and often fail to identify diffusion-generated content with a diverse range of semantics. To advance the field of video forensics, we propose an innovative algorithm named Multi-Modal Detection(MM-Det) for detecting diffusion-generated videos. MM-Det utilizes the profound perceptual and comprehensive abilities of Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) by generating a Multi-Modal Forgery Representation (MMFR) from LMM's multi-modal space, enhancing its ability to detect unseen forgery content. Besides, MM-Det leverages an In-and-Across Frame Attention (IAFA) mechanism for feature augmentation in the spatio-temporal domain. A dynamic fusion strategy helps refine forgery representations for the fusion. Moreover, we construct a comprehensive diffusion video dataset, called Diffusion Video Forensics (DVF), across a wide range of forgery videos. MM-Det achieves state-of-the-art performance in DVF, demonstrating the effectiveness of our algorithm. Both source code and DVF are available at https://github.com/SparkleXFantasy/MM-Det., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures

Recent advancements in predictive models have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in predicting the future state of objects and scenes. However, the lack of categorization based on inherent characteristics continues to hinder the progress of predictive model development. Additionally, existing benchmarks are unable to effectively evaluate higher-capability, highly embodied predictive models from an embodied perspective. In this work, we classify the functionalities of predictive models into a hierarchy and take the first step in evaluating World Simulators by proposing a dual evaluation framework called WorldSimBench. WorldSimBench includes Explicit Perceptual Evaluation and Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, encompassing human preference assessments from the visual perspective and action-level evaluations in embodied tasks, covering three representative embodied scenarios: Open-Ended Embodied Environment, Autonomous, Driving, and Robot Manipulation. In the Explicit Perceptual Evaluation, we introduce the HF-Embodied Dataset, a video assessment dataset based on fine-grained human feedback, which we use to train a Human Preference Evaluator that aligns with human perception and explicitly assesses the visual fidelity of World Simulators. In the Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, we assess the video-action consistency of World Simulators by evaluating whether the generated situation-aware video can be accurately translated into the correct control signals in dynamic environments. Our comprehensive evaluation offers key insights that can drive further innovation in video generation models, positioning World Simulators as a pivotal advancement toward embodied artificial intelligence.

Arctic sea ice performs a vital role in global climate and has paramount impacts on both polar ecosystems and coastal communities. In the last few years, multiple deep learning based pan-Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasting methods have emerged and showcased superior performance over physics-based dynamical models. However, previous methods forecast SIC at a fixed temporal granularity, e.g. sub-seasonal or seasonal, thus only leveraging inter-granularity information and overlooking the plentiful inter-granularity correlations. SIC at various temporal granularities exhibits cumulative effects and are naturally consistent, with short-term fluctuations potentially impacting long-term trends and long-term trends provides effective hints for facilitating short-term forecasts in Arctic sea ice. Therefore, in this study, we propose to cultivate temporal multi-granularity that naturally derived from Arctic sea ice reanalysis data and provide a unified perspective for modeling SIC via our Sea Ice Foundation Model. SIFM is delicately designed to leverage both intra-granularity and inter-granularity information for capturing granularity-consistent representations that promote forecasting skills. Our extensive experiments show that SIFM outperforms off-the-shelf deep learning models for their specific temporal granularity., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures

Conventional class-guided diffusion models generally succeed in generating images with correct semantic content, but often struggle with texture details. This limitation stems from the usage of class priors, which only provide coarse and limited conditional information. To address this issue, we propose Diffusion on Diffusion (DoD), an innovative multi-stage generation framework that first extracts visual priors from previously generated samples, then provides rich guidance for the diffusion model leveraging visual priors from the early stages of diffusion sampling. Specifically, we introduce a latent embedding module that employs a compression-reconstruction approach to discard redundant detail information from the conditional samples in each stage, retaining only the semantic information for guidance. We evaluate DoD on the popular ImageNet-$256 \times 256$ dataset, reducing 7$\times$ training cost compared to SiT and DiT with even better performance in terms of the FID-50K score. Our largest model DoD-XL achieves an FID-50K score of 1.83 with only 1 million training steps, which surpasses other state-of-the-art methods without bells and whistles during inference., Comment: Preprint

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and scientific studies. Recent pan-Arctic sea ice forecasting methods that leverage advances in artificial intelligence has made promising progress over numerical models. However, forecasting sea ice at higher resolutions is still under-explored. To bridge the gap, we propose a two-staged deep learning framework, IceDiff, to forecast sea ice concentration at finer scales. IceDiff first leverages an independently trained vision transformer to generate coarse yet superior forecasting over previous methods at a regular 25km x 25km grid. This high-quality sea ice forecasting can be utilized as reliable guidance for the next stage. Subsequently, an unconditional diffusion model pre-trained on sea ice concentration maps is utilized for sampling down-scaled sea ice forecasting via a zero-shot guided sampling strategy and a patch-based method. For the first time, IceDiff demonstrates sea ice forecasting with the 6.25km x 6.25km resolution. IceDiff extends the boundary of existing sea ice forecasting models and more importantly, its capability to generate high-resolution sea ice concentration data is vital for pragmatic usages and research., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures

Precipitation nowcasting plays a pivotal role in socioeconomic sectors, especially in severe convective weather warnings. Although notable progress has been achieved by approaches mining the spatiotemporal correlations with deep learning, these methods still suffer severe blurriness as the lead time increases, which hampers accurate predictions for extreme precipitation. To alleviate blurriness, researchers explore generative methods conditioned on blurry predictions. However, the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth need to be generated in advance, making the training pipeline cumbersome and limiting the generality of generative models within blur modes that appear in training data. By rethinking the blurriness in precipitation nowcasting as a blur kernel acting on predictions, we propose an unsupervised postprocessing method to eliminate the blurriness without the requirement of training with the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth. Specifically, we utilize blurry predictions to guide the generation process of a pre-trained unconditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to obtain high-fidelity predictions with eliminated blurriness. A zero-shot blur kernel estimation mechanism and an auto-scale denoise guidance strategy are introduced to adapt the unconditional DDPM to any blurriness modes varying from datasets and lead times in precipitation nowcasting. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 precipitation radar datasets, demonstrating the generality and superiority of our method.

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system is an infrastructure that exerts considerable impacts on modern society.Traditional NWP system, however, resolves it by solving complex partial differential equations with a huge computing cluster, resulting in tons of carbon emission. Exploring efficient and eco-friendly solutions for NWP attracts interest from Artificial Intelligence (AI) and earth science communities. To narrow the performance gap between the AI-based methods and physic predictor, this work proposes a new transformer-based NWP framework, termed as WeatherFormer, to model the complex spatio-temporal atmosphere dynamics and empowering the capability of data-driven NWP. WeatherFormer innovatively introduces the space-time factorized transformer blocks to decrease the parameters and memory consumption, in which Position-aware Adaptive Fourier Neural Operator (PAFNO) is proposed for location sensible token mixing. Besides, two data augmentation strategies are utilized to boost the performance and decrease training consumption. Extensive experiments on WeatherBench dataset show WeatherFormer achieves superior performance over existing deep learning methods and further approaches the most advanced physical model.

Much previous AI research has focused on developing monolithic models to maximize their intelligence and capability, with the primary goal of enhancing performance on specific tasks. In contrast, this paper explores an alternative approach: collaborative AI systems that use workflows to integrate models, data sources, and pipelines to solve complex and diverse tasks. We introduce GenAgent, an LLM-based framework that automatically generates complex workflows, offering greater flexibility and scalability compared to monolithic models. The core innovation of GenAgent lies in representing workflows with code, alongside constructing workflows with collaborative agents in a step-by-step manner. We implement GenAgent on the ComfyUI platform and propose a new benchmark, OpenComfy. The results demonstrate that GenAgent outperforms baseline approaches in both run-level and task-level evaluations, showing its capability to generate complex workflows with superior effectiveness and stability.

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have led to the development of several Large Weather Models (LWMs) that rival State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. Until now, these models have still relied on traditional NWP-generated analysis fields as input and are far from autonomous. Currently, scientists are increasingly focusing on developing data-driven data assimilation (DA) models for LWMs. To expedite advancements in this field and facilitate the operationalization of data-driven end-to-end weather forecasting systems, we propose DABench, a benchmark constructed by simulated observations, real-world observations, and ERA5 reanalysis. DABench contributes four standard features: (1) sparse and noisy observations provided for both simulated and real-world experiments; (2) a Skillful pre-trained Transformer-based weather prediction model, Sformer, designed to generate background fields while rigorously assessing the impact of assimilation outcomes on predictions; (3) standardized evaluation metrics for the model comparison; (4) a strong DA baseline, 4DVarFormerV2. Our experimental results demonstrate that the end-to-end weather forecasting system, integrating 4DVarFormerV2 and Sformer, can assimilate real-world observations, thereby facilitating a stable DA cycle lasting one year and achieving a skillful forecasting lead time of up to 7 days. The proposed DABench will significantly advance research in AI-based DA, AI-based weather forecasting, and related domains., Comment: 38pages, 21 figures, 4 tables

In an era of frequent extreme weather and global warming, obtaining precise, fine-grained near-surface weather forecasts is increasingly essential for human activities. Downscaling (DS), a crucial task in meteorological forecasting, enables the reconstruction of high-resolution meteorological states for target regions from global-scale forecast results. Previous downscaling methods, inspired by CNN and Transformer-based super-resolution models, lacked tailored designs for meteorology and encountered structural limitations. Notably, they failed to efficiently integrate topography, a crucial prior in the downscaling process. In this paper, we address these limitations by pioneering the selective state space model into the meteorological field downscaling and propose a novel model called MambaDS. This model enhances the utilization of multivariable correlations and topography information, unique challenges in the downscaling process while retaining the advantages of Mamba in long-range dependency modeling and linear computational complexity. Through extensive experiments in both China mainland and the continental United States (CONUS), we validated that our proposed MambaDS achieves state-of-the-art results in three different types of meteorological field downscaling settings. We will release the code subsequently.

Existing EEW approaches often treat phase picking, location estimation, and magnitude estimation as separate tasks, lacking a unified framework. Additionally, most deep learning models in seismology rely on full three-component waveforms and are not suitable for real-time streaming data. To address these limitations, we propose a novel unified seismic neural network called Fast Information Streaming Handler (FisH). FisH is designed to process real-time streaming seismic data and generate simultaneous results for phase picking, location estimation, and magnitude estimation in an end-to-end fashion. By integrating these tasks within a single model, FisH simplifies the overall process and leverages the nonlinear relationships between tasks for improved performance. The FisH model utilizes RetNet as its backbone, enabling parallel processing during training and recurrent handling during inference. This capability makes FisH suitable for real-time applications, reducing latency in EEW systems. Extensive experiments conducted on the STEAD benchmark dataset provide strong validation for the effectiveness of our proposed FisH model. The results demonstrate that FisH achieves impressive performance across multiple seismic event detection and characterization tasks. Specifically, it achieves an F1 score of 0.99/0.96. Also, FisH demonstrates precise earthquake location estimation, with location error of only 6.0km, a distance error of 2.6km, and a back-azimuth error of 19{\deg}. The model also exhibits accurate earthquake magnitude estimation, with a magnitude error of just 0.14. Additionally, FisH is capable of generating real-time estimations, providing location and magnitude estimations with a location error of 8.06km and a magnitude error of 0.18 within a mere 3 seconds after the P-wave arrives.

In the context of global climate change and frequent extreme weather events, forecasting future geospatial vegetation states under these conditions is of significant importance. The vegetation change process is influenced by the complex interplay between dynamic meteorological variables and static environmental variables, leading to high levels of uncertainty. Existing deterministic methods are inadequate in addressing this uncertainty and fail to accurately model the impact of these variables on vegetation, resulting in blurry and inaccurate forecasting results. To address these issues, we propose VegeDiff for the geospatial vegetation forecasting task. To our best knowledge, VegeDiff is the first to employ a diffusion model to probabilistically capture the uncertainties in vegetation change processes, enabling the generation of clear and accurate future vegetation states. VegeDiff also separately models the global impact of dynamic meteorological variables and the local effects of static environmental variables, thus accurately modeling the impact of these variables. Extensive experiments on geospatial vegetation forecasting tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of VegeDiff. By capturing the uncertainties in vegetation changes and modeling the complex influence of relevant variables, VegeDiff outperforms existing deterministic methods, providing clear and accurate forecasting results of future vegetation states. Interestingly, we demonstrate the potential of VegeDiff in applications of forecasting future vegetation states from multiple aspects and exploring the impact of meteorological variables on vegetation dynamics. The code of this work will be available at https://github.com/walking-shadow/ Official_VegeDiff., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) techniques is often hindered by the lack of comprehensive datasets. This is particularly problematic for time-series weather forecasting, where commonly used datasets suffer from significant limitations such as small size, limited temporal coverage, and sparse spatial distribution. These constraints severely impede the optimization and evaluation of TSF models, resulting in benchmarks that are not representative of real-world applications, such as operational weather forecasting. In this work, we introduce the WEATHER-5K dataset, a comprehensive collection of observational weather data that better reflects real-world scenarios. As a result, it enables a better training of models and a more accurate assessment of the real-world forecasting capabilities of TSF models, pushing them closer to in-situ applications. Through extensive benchmarking against operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, we provide researchers with a clear assessment of the gap between academic TSF models and real-world weather forecasting applications. This highlights the significant performance disparity between TSF and NWP models by analyzing performance across detailed weather variables, extreme weather event prediction, and model complexity comparison. Finally, we summarise the result into recommendations to the users and highlight potential areas required to facilitate further TSF research. The dataset and benchmark implementation are available at: https://github.com/taohan10200/WEATHER-5K., Comment: 29 pages, 14 figures

Data assimilation is a vital component in modern global medium-range weather forecasting systems to obtain the best estimation of the atmospheric state by combining the short-term forecast and observations. Recently, AI-based data assimilation approaches have attracted increasing attention for their significant advantages over traditional techniques in terms of computational consumption. However, existing AI-based data assimilation methods can only handle observations with a specific resolution, lacking the compatibility and generalization ability to assimilate observations with other resolutions. Considering that complex real-world observations often have different resolutions, we propose the \textit{\textbf{Fourier Neural Processes}} (FNP) for \textit{arbitrary-resolution data assimilation} in this paper. Leveraging the efficiency of the designed modules and flexible structure of neural processes, FNP achieves state-of-the-art results in assimilating observations with varying resolutions, and also exhibits increasing advantages over the counterparts as the resolution and the amount of observations increase. Moreover, our FNP trained on a fixed resolution can directly handle the assimilation of observations with out-of-distribution resolutions and the observational information reconstruction task without additional fine-tuning, demonstrating its excellent generalization ability across data resolutions as well as across tasks.

Human intelligence can retrieve any person according to both visual and language descriptions. However, the current computer vision community studies specific person re-identification (ReID) tasks in different scenarios separately, which limits the applications in the real world. This paper strives to resolve this problem by proposing a novel instruct-ReID task that requires the model to retrieve images according to the given image or language instructions. Instruct-ReID is the first exploration of a general ReID setting, where existing 6 ReID tasks can be viewed as special cases by assigning different instructions. To facilitate research in this new instruct-ReID task, we propose a large-scale OmniReID++ benchmark equipped with diverse data and comprehensive evaluation methods e.g., task specific and task-free evaluation settings. In the task-specific evaluation setting, gallery sets are categorized according to specific ReID tasks. We propose a novel baseline model, IRM, with an adaptive triplet loss to handle various retrieval tasks within a unified framework. For task-free evaluation setting, where target person images are retrieved from task-agnostic gallery sets, we further propose a new method called IRM++ with novel memory bank-assisted learning. Extensive evaluations of IRM and IRM++ on OmniReID++ benchmark demonstrate the superiority of our proposed methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance on 10 test sets. The datasets, the model, and the code will be available at https://github.com/hwz-zju/Instruct-ReID, Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2306.07520

Accurate ocean dynamics modeling is crucial for enhancing understanding of ocean circulation, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Despite improvements in traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multi-year scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), the first data-driven 3D ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean circulation. ORCA-DL accurately simulates three-dimensional ocean dynamics and outperforms state-of-the-art dynamical models in capturing extreme events, including El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heatwaves. This demonstrates the high potential of data-driven models for efficient and accurate global ocean forecasting. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections.

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on learning data mapping rather than fine-grained physical evolution in the time dimension. Consequently, the limitations in the temporal scale of datasets prevent these models from forecasting at finer time scales. This paper proposes a physics-AI hybrid model (i.e., WeatherGFT) which Generalizes weather forecasts to Finer-grained Temporal scales beyond training dataset. Specifically, we employ a carefully designed PDE kernel to simulate physical evolution on a small time scale (e.g., 300 seconds) and use a parallel neural networks with a learnable router for bias correction. Furthermore, we introduce a lead time-aware training framework to promote the generalization of the model at different lead times. The weight analysis of physics-AI modules indicates that physics conducts major evolution while AI performs corrections adaptively. Extensive experiments show that WeatherGFT trained on an hourly dataset, achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple lead times and exhibits the capability to generalize 30-minute forecasts.

Data assimilation refers to a set of algorithms designed to compute the optimal estimate of a system's state by refining the prior prediction (known as background states) using observed data. Variational assimilation methods rely on the maximum likelihood approach to formulate a variational cost, with the optimal state estimate derived by minimizing this cost. Although traditional variational methods have achieved great success and have been widely used in many numerical weather prediction centers, they generally assume Gaussian errors in the background states, which limits the accuracy of these algorithms due to the inherent inaccuracies of this assumption. In this paper, we introduce VAE-Var, a novel variational algorithm that leverages a variational autoencoder (VAE) to model a non-Gaussian estimate of the background error distribution. We theoretically derive the variational cost under the VAE estimation and present the general formulation of VAE-Var; we implement VAE-Var on low-dimensional chaotic systems and demonstrate through experimental results that VAE-Var consistently outperforms traditional variational assimilation methods in terms of accuracy across various observational settings.

The advent of data-driven weather forecasting models, which learn from hundreds of terabytes (TB) of reanalysis data, has significantly advanced forecasting capabilities. However, the substantial costs associated with data storage and transmission present a major challenge for data providers and users, affecting resource-constrained researchers and limiting their accessibility to participate in AI-based meteorological research. To mitigate this issue, we introduce an efficient neural codec, the Variational Autoencoder Transformer (VAEformer), for extreme compression of climate data to significantly reduce data storage cost, making AI-based meteorological research portable to researchers. Our approach diverges from recent complex neural codecs by utilizing a low-complexity Auto-Encoder transformer. This encoder produces a quantized latent representation through variance inference, which reparameterizes the latent space as a Gaussian distribution. This method improves the estimation of distributions for cross-entropy coding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our VAEformer outperforms existing state-of-the-art compression methods in the context of climate data. By applying our VAEformer, we compressed the most popular ERA5 climate dataset (226 TB) into a new dataset, CRA5 (0.7 TB). This translates to a compression ratio of over 300 while retaining the dataset's utility for accurate scientific analysis. Further, downstream experiments show that global weather forecasting models trained on the compact CRA5 dataset achieve forecasting accuracy comparable to the model trained on the original dataset. Code, the CRA5 dataset, and the pre-trained model are available at https://github.com/taohan10200/CRA5., Comment: Main text and supplementary, 22 pages, 13 figures

With the evolution of Text-to-Image (T2I) models, the quality defects of AI-Generated Images (AIGIs) pose a significant barrier to their widespread adoption. In terms of both perception and alignment, existing models cannot always guarantee high-quality results. To mitigate this limitation, we introduce G-Refine, a general image quality refiner designed to enhance low-quality images without compromising the integrity of high-quality ones. The model is composed of three interconnected modules: a perception quality indicator, an alignment quality indicator, and a general quality enhancement module. Based on the mechanisms of the Human Visual System (HVS) and syntax trees, the first two indicators can respectively identify the perception and alignment deficiencies, and the last module can apply targeted quality enhancement accordingly. Extensive experimentation reveals that when compared to alternative optimization methods, AIGIs after G-Refine outperform in 10+ quality metrics across 4 databases. This improvement significantly contributes to the practical application of contemporary T2I models, paving the way for their broader adoption. The code will be released on https://github.com/Q-Future/Q-Refine.

Directed Acyclic Graphical (DAG) models efficiently formulate causal relationships in complex systems. Traditional DAGs assume nodes to be scalar variables, characterizing complex systems under a facile and oversimplified form. This paper considers that nodes can be multivariate functional data and thus proposes a multivariate functional DAG (MultiFun-DAG). It constructs a hidden bilinear multivariate function-to-function regression to describe the causal relationships between different nodes. Then an Expectation-Maximum algorithm is used to learn the graph structure as a score-based algorithm with acyclic constraints. Theoretical properties are diligently derived. Prudent numerical studies and a case study from urban traffic congestion analysis are conducted to show MultiFun-DAG's effectiveness.

Context modeling is critical for remote sensing image dense prediction tasks. Nowadays, the growing size of very-high-resolution (VHR) remote sensing images poses challenges in effectively modeling context. While transformer-based models possess global modeling capabilities, they encounter computational challenges when applied to large VHR images due to their quadratic complexity. The conventional practice of cropping large images into smaller patches results in a notable loss of contextual information. To address these issues, we propose the Remote Sensing Mamba (RSM) for dense prediction tasks in large VHR remote sensing images. RSM is specifically designed to capture the global context of remote sensing images with linear complexity, facilitating the effective processing of large VHR images. Considering that the land covers in remote sensing images are distributed in arbitrary spatial directions due to characteristics of remote sensing over-head imaging, the RSM incorporates an omnidirectional selective scan module to globally model the context of images in multiple directions, capturing large spatial features from various directions. Extensive experiments on semantic segmentation and change detection tasks across various land covers demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RSM. We designed simple yet effective models based on RSM, achieving state-of-the-art performance on dense prediction tasks in VHR remote sensing images without fancy training strategies. Leveraging the linear complexity and global modeling capabilities, RSM achieves better efficiency and accuracy than transformer-based models on large remote sensing images. Interestingly, we also demonstrated that our model generally performs better with a larger image size on dense prediction tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/walking-shadow/Official_Remote_Sensing_Mamba., Comment: 15 pages,8 figures

Video generation is a rapidly advancing research area, garnering significant attention due to its broad range of applications. One critical aspect of this field is the generation of long-duration videos, which presents unique challenges and opportunities. This paper presents the first survey of recent advancements in long video generation and summarises them into two key paradigms: divide and conquer temporal autoregressive. We delve into the common models employed in each paradigm, including aspects of network design and conditioning techniques. Furthermore, we offer a comprehensive overview and classification of the datasets and evaluation metrics which are crucial for advancing long video generation research. Concluding with a summary of existing studies, we also discuss the emerging challenges and future directions in this dynamic field. We hope that this survey will serve as an essential reference for researchers and practitioners in the realm of long video generation.

We present a hybrid-view-based knowledge distillation framework, termed HVDistill, to guide the feature learning of a point cloud neural network with a pre-trained image network in an unsupervised manner. By exploiting the geometric relationship between RGB cameras and LiDAR sensors, the correspondence between the two modalities based on both image-plane view and bird-eye view can be established, which facilitates representation learning. Specifically, the image-plane correspondences can be simply obtained by projecting the point clouds, while the bird-eye-view correspondences can be achieved by lifting pixels to the 3D space with the predicted depths under the supervision of projected point clouds. The image teacher networks provide rich semantics from the image-plane view and meanwhile acquire geometric information from the bird-eye view. Indeed, image features from the two views naturally complement each other and together can ameliorate the learned feature representation of the point cloud student networks. Moreover, with a self-supervised pre-trained 2D network, HVDistill requires neither 2D nor 3D annotations. We pre-train our model on nuScenes dataset and transfer it to several downstream tasks on nuScenes, SemanticKITTI, and KITTI datasets for evaluation. Extensive experimental results show that our method achieves consistent improvements over the baseline trained from scratch and significantly outperforms the existing schemes. Codes are available at git@github.com:zhangsha1024/HVDistill.git.

Nature is infinitely resolution-free. In the context of this reality, existing diffusion models, such as Diffusion Transformers, often face challenges when processing image resolutions outside of their trained domain. To overcome this limitation, we present the Flexible Vision Transformer (FiT), a transformer architecture specifically designed for generating images with unrestricted resolutions and aspect ratios. Unlike traditional methods that perceive images as static-resolution grids, FiT conceptualizes images as sequences of dynamically-sized tokens. This perspective enables a flexible training strategy that effortlessly adapts to diverse aspect ratios during both training and inference phases, thus promoting resolution generalization and eliminating biases induced by image cropping. Enhanced by a meticulously adjusted network structure and the integration of training-free extrapolation techniques, FiT exhibits remarkable flexibility in resolution extrapolation generation. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the exceptional performance of FiT across a broad range of resolutions, showcasing its effectiveness both within and beyond its training resolution distribution. Repository available at https://github.com/whlzy/FiT.

Accurate forecasting of Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is crucial for formulating disaster risk reduction strategies. Current methods predominantly rely on limited spatiotemporal information from ERA5 data and neglect the causal relationships between these physical variables, failing to fully capture the spatial and temporal patterns required for intensity forecasting. To address this issue, we propose a Multi-modal multi-Scale Causal AutoRegressive model (MSCAR), which is the first model that combines causal relationships with large-scale multi-modal data for global TC intensity autoregressive forecasting. Furthermore, given the current absence of a TC dataset that offers a wide range of spatial variables, we present the Satellite and ERA5-based Tropical Cyclone Dataset (SETCD), which stands as the longest and most comprehensive global dataset related to TCs. Experiments on the dataset show that MSCAR outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, achieving maximum reductions in global and regional forecast errors of 9.52% and 6.74%, respectively. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MSCAR.

Precipitation nowcasting based on radar data plays a crucial role in extreme weather prediction and has broad implications for disaster management. Despite progresses have been made based on deep learning, two key challenges of precipitation nowcasting are not well-solved: (i) the modeling of complex precipitation system evolutions with different scales, and (ii) accurate forecasts for extreme precipitation. In this work, we propose CasCast, a cascaded framework composed of a deterministic and a probabilistic part to decouple the predictions for mesoscale precipitation distributions and small-scale patterns. Then, we explore training the cascaded framework at the high resolution and conducting the probabilistic modeling in a low dimensional latent space with a frame-wise-guided diffusion transformer for enhancing the optimization of extreme events while reducing computational costs. Extensive experiments on three benchmark radar precipitation datasets show that CasCast achieves competitive performance. Especially, CasCast significantly surpasses the baseline (up to +91.8%) for regional extreme-precipitation nowcasting.

Data-driven weather forecast based on machine learning (ML) has experienced rapid development and demonstrated superior performance in the global medium-range forecast compared to traditional physics-based dynamical models. However, most of these ML models struggle with accurately predicting extreme weather, which is related to training loss and the uncertainty of weather systems. Through mathematical analysis, we prove that the use of symmetric losses, such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE), leads to biased predictions and underestimation of extreme values. To address this issue, we introduce Exloss, a novel loss function that performs asymmetric optimization and highlights extreme values to obtain accurate extreme weather forecast. Beyond the evolution in training loss, we introduce a training-free extreme value enhancement module named ExBooster, which captures the uncertainty in prediction outcomes by employing multiple random samples, thereby increasing the hit rate of low-probability extreme events. Combined with an advanced global weather forecast model, extensive experiments show that our solution can achieve state-of-the-art performance in extreme weather prediction, while maintaining the overall forecast accuracy comparable to the top medium-range forecast models.

As our planet is entering into the "global boiling" era, understanding regional climate change becomes imperative. Effective downscaling methods that provide localized insights are crucial for this target. Traditional approaches, including computationally-demanding regional dynamical models or statistical downscaling frameworks, are often susceptible to the influence of downscaling uncertainty. Here, we address these limitations by introducing a diffusion probabilistic downscaling model (DPDM) into the meteorological field. This model can efficiently transform data from 1{\deg} to 0.1{\deg} resolution. Compared with deterministic downscaling schemes, it not only has more accurate local details, but also can generate a large number of ensemble members based on probability distribution sampling to evaluate the uncertainty of downscaling. Additionally, we apply the model to generate a 180-year dataset of monthly surface variables in East Asia, offering a more detailed perspective for understanding local scale climate change over the past centuries.

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in recent years, has led to the emergence of several large parameter artificial intelligence weather forecast models. These models represent a significant breakthrough, overcoming the limitations of traditional numerical weather prediction models and indicating the emergence of profound potential tools for atmosphere-ocean forecasts. This study explores the evolution of these advanced artificial intelligence forecast models, and based on the identified commonalities, proposes the "Three Large Rules" to measure their development. We discuss the potential of artificial intelligence in revolutionizing numerical weather prediction, and briefly outlining the underlying reasons for its great potential. While acknowledging the high accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of deployment of large artificial intelligence forecast models, we also emphasize the irreplaceable values of traditional numerical forecasts and explore the challenges in the future development of large-scale artificial intelligence atmosphere-ocean forecast models. We believe that the optimal future of atmosphere-ocean weather forecast lies in achieving a seamless integration of artificial intelligence and traditional numerical models. Such a synthesis is anticipated to offer a more advanced and reliable approach for improved atmosphere-ocean forecasts. Additionally, we illustrate how forecasters can adapt and leverage the advanced artificial intelligence model through an example by building a large artificial intelligence model for global ocean wave forecast.

Kilometer-scale modeling of global atmosphere dynamics enables fine-grained weather forecasting and decreases the risk of disastrous weather and climate activity. Therefore, building a kilometer-scale global forecast model is a persistent pursuit in the meteorology domain. Active international efforts have been made in past decades to improve the spatial resolution of numerical weather models. Nonetheless, developing the higher resolution numerical model remains a long-standing challenge due to the substantial consumption of computational resources. Recent advances in data-driven global weather forecasting models utilize reanalysis data for model training and have demonstrated comparable or even higher forecasting skills than numerical models. However, they are all limited by the resolution of reanalysis data and incapable of generating higher-resolution forecasts. This work presents FengWu-GHR, the first data-driven global weather forecasting model running at the 0.09$^{\circ}$ horizontal resolution. FengWu-GHR introduces a novel approach that opens the door for operating ML-based high-resolution forecasts by inheriting prior knowledge from a pretrained low-resolution model. The hindcast of weather prediction in 2022 indicates that FengWu-GHR is superior to the IFS-HRES. Furthermore, evaluations on station observations and case studies of extreme events support the competitive operational forecasting skill of FengWu-GHR at the high resolution., Comment: 19 pages

Kriging aims at estimating the attributes of unsampled geo-locations from observations in the spatial vicinity or physical connections, which helps mitigate skewed monitoring caused by under-deployed sensors. Existing works assume that neighbors' information offers the basis for estimating the attributes of the unobserved target while ignoring non-neighbors. However, non-neighbors could also offer constructive information, and neighbors could also be misleading. To this end, we propose ``Contrastive-Prototypical'' self-supervised learning for Kriging (KCP) to refine valuable information from neighbors and recycle the one from non-neighbors. As a pre-trained paradigm, we conduct the Kriging task from a new perspective of representation: we aim to first learn robust and general representations and then recover attributes from representations. A neighboring contrastive module is designed that coarsely learns the representations by narrowing the representation distance between the target and its neighbors while pushing away the non-neighbors. In parallel, a prototypical module is introduced to identify similar representations via exchanged prediction, thus refining the misleading neighbors and recycling the useful non-neighbors from the neighboring contrast component. As a result, not all the neighbors and some of the non-neighbors will be used to infer the target. To encourage the two modules above to learn general and robust representations, we design an adaptive augmentation module that incorporates data-driven attribute augmentation and centrality-based topology augmentation over the spatiotemporal Kriging graph data. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of KCP compared to its peers with 6% improvements and exceptional transferability and robustness. The code is available at https://github.com/bonaldli/KCP, Comment: Accepted in AISTATS 2024

Downscaling (DS) of meteorological variables involves obtaining high-resolution states from low-resolution meteorological fields and is an important task in weather forecasting. Previous methods based on deep learning treat downscaling as a super-resolution task in computer vision and utilize high-resolution gridded meteorological fields as supervision to improve resolution at specific grid scales. However, this approach has struggled to align with the continuous distribution characteristics of meteorological fields, leading to an inherent systematic bias between the downscaled results and the actual observations at meteorological stations. In this paper, we extend meteorological downscaling to arbitrary scattered station scales, establish a brand new benchmark and dataset, and retrieve meteorological states at any given station location from a coarse-resolution meteorological field. Inspired by data assimilation techniques, we integrate observational data into the downscaling process, providing multi-scale observational priors. Building on this foundation, we propose a new downscaling model based on hypernetwork architecture, namely HyperDS, which efficiently integrates different observational information into the model training, achieving continuous scale modeling of the meteorological field. Through extensive experiments, our proposed method outperforms other specially designed baseline models on multiple surface variables. Notably, the mean squared error (MSE) for wind speed and surface pressure improved by 67% and 19.5% compared to other methods. We will release the dataset and code subsequently.

Accurate spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting is crucial in aiding traffic managers in implementing control measures and assisting drivers in selecting optimal travel routes. Traditional deep-learning based methods for traffic flow forecasting typically rely on historical data to train their models, which are then used to make predictions on future data. However, the performance of the trained model usually degrades due to the temporal drift between the historical and future data. To make the model trained on historical data better adapt to future data in a fully online manner, this paper conducts the first study of the online test-time adaptation techniques for spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting problems. To this end, we propose an Adaptive Double Correction by Series Decomposition (ADCSD) method, which first decomposes the output of the trained model into seasonal and trend-cyclical parts and then corrects them by two separate modules during the testing phase using the latest observed data entry by entry. In the proposed ADCSD method, instead of fine-tuning the whole trained model during the testing phase, a lite network is attached after the trained model, and only the lite network is fine-tuned in the testing process each time a data entry is observed. Moreover, to satisfy that different time series variables may have different levels of temporal drift, two adaptive vectors are adopted to provide different weights for different time series variables. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic flow forecasting datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ADCSD method. The code is available at https://github.com/Pengxin-Guo/ADCSD.

With the rapid evolution of the Text-to-Image (T2I) model in recent years, their unsatisfactory generation result has become a challenge. However, uniformly refining AI-Generated Images (AIGIs) of different qualities not only limited optimization capabilities for low-quality AIGIs but also brought negative optimization to high-quality AIGIs. To address this issue, a quality-award refiner named Q-Refine is proposed. Based on the preference of the Human Visual System (HVS), Q-Refine uses the Image Quality Assessment (IQA) metric to guide the refining process for the first time, and modify images of different qualities through three adaptive pipelines. Experimental shows that for mainstream T2I models, Q-Refine can perform effective optimization to AIGIs of different qualities. It can be a general refiner to optimize AIGIs from both fidelity and aesthetic quality levels, thus expanding the application of the T2I generation models., Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist, including potential overfitting issues and lack of interpretability. Here, we propose ResoNet, a DL model that combines convolutional neural network (CNN) and Transformer architectures. This hybrid architecture design enables our model to adequately capture local SSTA as well as long-range inter-basin interactions across oceans. We show that ResoNet can robustly predict ESNO at lead times between 19 and 26 months, thus outperforming existing approaches in terms of the forecast horizon. According to an explainability method applied to ResoNet predictions of El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na events from 1- to 18-month lead, we find that it predicts the Ni\~no3.4 index based on multiple physically reasonable mechanisms, such as the Recharge Oscillator concept, Seasonal Footprint Mechanism, and Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Moreover, we demonstrate that for the first time, the asymmetry between El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na development can be captured by ResoNet. Our results could help alleviate skepticism about applying DL models for ENSO prediction and encourage more attempts to discover and predict climate phenomena using AI methods., Comment: 32 pages, 5 main figures and 12 supplementary figures

Weather forecasting is a crucial yet highly challenging task. With the maturity of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the emergence of data-driven weather forecasting models has opened up a new paradigm for the development of weather forecasting systems. Despite the significant successes that have been achieved (e.g., surpassing advanced traditional physical models for global medium-range forecasting), existing data-driven weather forecasting models still rely on the analysis fields generated by the traditional assimilation and forecasting system, which hampers the significance of data-driven weather forecasting models regarding both computational cost and forecasting accuracy. In this work, we explore the possibility of coupling the data-driven weather forecasting model with data assimilation by integrating the global AI weather forecasting model, FengWu, with one of the most popular assimilation algorithms, Four-Dimensional Variational (4DVar) assimilation, and develop an AI-based cyclic weather forecasting system, FengWu-4DVar. FengWu-4DVar can incorporate observational data into the data-driven weather forecasting model and consider the temporal evolution of atmospheric dynamics to obtain accurate analysis fields for making predictions in a cycling manner without the help of physical models. Owning to the auto-differentiation ability of deep learning models, FengWu-4DVar eliminates the need of developing the cumbersome adjoint model, which is usually required in the traditional implementation of the 4DVar algorithm. Experiments on the simulated observational dataset demonstrate that FengWu-4DVar is capable of generating reasonable analysis fields for making accurate and efficient iterative predictions., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures

Trajectory recovery based on the snapshots from the city-wide multi-camera network facilitates urban mobility sensing and driveway optimization. The state-of-the-art solutions devoted to such a vision-based scheme typically incorporate predefined rules or unsupervised iterative feedback, struggling with multi-fold challenges such as lack of open-source datasets for training the whole pipeline, and the vulnerability to the noises from visual inputs. In response to the dilemma, this paper proposes VisionTraj, the first learning-based model that reconstructs vehicle trajectories from snapshots recorded by road network cameras. Coupled with it, we elaborate on two rational vision-trajectory datasets, which produce extensive trajectory data along with corresponding visual snapshots, enabling supervised vision-trajectory interplay extraction. Following the data creation, based on the results from the off-the-shelf multi-modal vehicle clustering, we first re-formulate the trajectory recovery problem as a generative task and introduce the canonical Transformer as the autoregressive backbone. Then, to identify clustering noises (e.g., false positives) with the bound on the snapshots' spatiotemporal dependencies, a GCN-based soft-denoising module is conducted based on the fine- and coarse-grained Re-ID clusters. Additionally, we harness strong semantic information extracted from the tracklet to provide detailed insights into the vehicle's entry and exit actions during trajectory recovery. The denoising and tracklet components can also act as plug-and-play modules to boost baselines. Experimental results on the two hand-crafted datasets show that the proposed VisionTraj achieves a maximum +11.5% improvement against the sub-best model.

Human-centric perception tasks, e.g., pedestrian detection, skeleton-based action recognition, and pose estimation, have wide industrial applications, such as metaverse and sports analysis. There is a recent surge to develop human-centric foundation models that can benefit a broad range of human-centric perception tasks. While many human-centric foundation models have achieved success, they did not explore 3D and vision-language tasks for human-centric and required task-specific finetuning. These limitations restrict their application to more downstream tasks and situations. To tackle these problems, we present Hulk, the first multimodal human-centric generalist model, capable of addressing 2D vision, 3D vision, skeleton-based, and vision-language tasks without task-specific finetuning. The key to achieving this is condensing various task-specific heads into two general heads, one for discrete representations, e.g., languages, and the other for continuous representations, e.g., location coordinates. The outputs of two heads can be further stacked into four distinct input and output modalities. This uniform representation enables Hulk to treat diverse human-centric tasks as modality translation, integrating knowledge across a wide range of tasks. Comprehensive evaluations of Hulk on 12 benchmarks covering 8 human-centric tasks demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method, achieving state-of-the-art performance in 11 benchmarks. The code is available on https://github.com/OpenGVLab/Hulk., Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures

The trajectory on the road traffic is commonly collected at a low sampling rate, and trajectory recovery aims to recover a complete and continuous trajectory from the sparse and discrete inputs. Recently, sequential language models have been innovatively adopted for trajectory recovery in a pre-trained manner: it learns road segment representation vectors, which will be used in the downstream tasks. However, existing methods are incapable of handling complex trajectories: when the trajectory crosses remote road segments or makes several turns, which we call critical nodes, the quality of learned representations deteriorates, and the recovered trajectories skip the critical nodes. This work is dedicated to offering a more robust trajectory recovery for complex trajectories. Firstly, we define the trajectory complexity based on the detour score and entropy score and construct the complexity-aware semantic graphs correspondingly. Then, we propose a Multi-view Graph and Complexity Aware Transformer (MGCAT) model to encode these semantics in trajectory pre-training from two aspects: 1) adaptively aggregate the multi-view graph features considering trajectory pattern, and 2) higher attention to critical nodes in a complex trajectory. Such that, our MGCAT is perceptual when handling the critical scenario of complex trajectories. Extensive experiments are conducted on large-scale datasets. The results prove that our method learns better representations for trajectory recovery, with 5.22% higher F1-score overall and 8.16% higher F1-score for complex trajectories particularly. The code is available at https://github.com/bonaldli/ComplexTraj., Comment: Accepted in ACM SIGSPATIAL 2023

Masked AutoEncoder (MAE) has revolutionized the field of self-supervised learning with its simple yet effective masking and reconstruction strategies. However, despite achieving state-of-the-art performance across various downstream vision tasks, the underlying mechanisms that drive MAE's efficacy are less well-explored compared to the canonical contrastive learning paradigm. In this paper, we first propose a local perspective to explicitly extract a local contrastive form from MAE's reconstructive objective at the patch level. And then we introduce a new empirical framework, called Local Contrastive MAE (LC-MAE), to analyze both reconstructive and contrastive aspects of MAE. LC-MAE reveals that MAE learns invariance to random masking and ensures distribution consistency between the learned token embeddings and the original images. Furthermore, we dissect the contribution of the decoder and random masking to MAE's success, revealing both the decoder's learning mechanism and the dual role of random masking as data augmentation and effective receptive field restriction. Our experimental analysis sheds light on the intricacies of MAE and summarizes some useful design methodologies, which can inspire more powerful visual self-supervised methods.