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Background: Recent studies have estimated the reduction in HIV-1 infectiousness with antiretroviral therapy (ART), but high-quality studies such as randomized controlled trials, accompanied by rigorous adherence counseling, are likely to overestimate the effectiveness of treatment-as-prevention in real-life settings.Methods: We attempted to summarize the effect of ART on HIV transmission by undertaking a systematic review and meta-analysis of HIV-1 infectiousness per heterosexual partnership (incidence rate and cumulative incidence over study follow-up) estimated from prospective studies of discordant couples. We used random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates. When possible, the analyses were further stratified by direction of transmission (man-to-woman or woman-to-man) and economic setting (high- or low-income countries). Potential causes of heterogeneity of estimates were explored through subgroup analyses.Results: Fifty publications were included. Nine allowed comparison between ART and non-ART users within studies (ART-stratified studies), in which summary incidence rates were 3.6/100 person-years (95% confidence interval = 2.0-6.5) and 0.2/100 person-years (0.07-0.7) for non-ART- and ART-using couples, respectively (P < 0.001), constituting a 91% (79-96%) reduction in per-partner HIV-1 incidence rate with ART use. The 41 studies that did not stratify by ART use provided estimates with high levels of heterogeneity (I statistic) and few reported levels of ART use, making interpretation difficult. Nevertheless, estimates tended to be lower with ART use. Infectiousness tended to be higher for low-income than high-income settings, but there was no clear pattern by direction of transmission (man-to-woman and woman-to-man).Conclusions: ART substantially reduces HIV-1 infectiousness within discordant couples, based on observational studies, and could play a major part in HIV-1 prevention efforts. However, the non-zero risk from partners receiving ART demonstrates that appropriate counseling and other risk-reduction strategies for discordant couples are still required. Additional estimates of ART effectiveness by adherence level from real-life settings will be important, especially for persons starting treatment early without symptoms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial healthcare expenses can impoverish households or push them further into poverty. In this paper, we examine the cost of obstetric care and the social and economic consequences associated with exposure to economic shocks up to a year following the end of pregnancy in Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso is a low-income country with poor health outcomes and a poorly functioning health system. We present an inter-disciplinary analysis of an ethnographic study of 82 women nested in a prospective cohort study of 1013 women. We compare the experiences of women who survived life-threatening obstetric complications ('near-miss' events) with women who delivered without complications in hospitals. The cost of emergency obstetric care was significantly higher than the cost of care for uncomplicated delivery. Compared with women who had uncomplicated deliveries, women who survived near-miss events experienced substantial difficulties meeting the costs of care, reflecting the high cost of emergency obstetric care and the low socioeconomic status of their households. They reported more frequent sale of assets, borrowing and slower repayment of debt in the year following the expenditure. Healthcare costs consumed a large part of households' resources and women who survived near-miss events continued to spend significantly more on healthcare in the year following the event, while at the same time experiencing continued cost barriers to accessing healthcare. In-depth interviews confirm that the economic burden of emergency obstetric care contributed to severe and long-lasting consequences for women and their households. The necessity of meeting unexpectedly high costs challenged social expectations and patterns of reciprocity between husbands, wives and wider social networks, placed enormous strain on everyday survival and shaped physical, social and economic well-being in the year that followed the event. In conclusion, we consider the implications of our findings for financing mechanisms for maternity care in low-income settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the health of women who survive obstetric complications in poor countries. Our aim was to determine how severe obstetric complications in Burkina Faso affect a range of health, social, and economic indicators in the first year post partum. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study of women with severe obstetric complications recruited in hospitals when their pregnancy ended with a livebirth (n=199), perinatal death (74), or a lost pregnancy (64). For every woman with severe obstetric complications, two unmatched control women with uncomplicated delivery were sampled in the same hospital (677). All women were followed up for 1 year. FINDINGS: Women with severe obstetric complications were poorer and less educated at baseline than were women with uncomplicated delivery. Women with severe obstetric complications, and their babies, were significantly more likely to die after discharge: six (2%) of the 337 women with severe obstetric complications died within 1 year, compared with none of the women with uncomplicated delivery (unadjusted p=0.001); 17 babies of women with severe obstetric complications died within 1 year, compared with 18 of those born by uncomplicated delivery (hazard ratio for mortality 4.67, 95% CI 1.68-13.04, adjusted for loss to follow-up and confounders; p=0.003). Women with severe obstetric complications were significantly more likely to have experienced depression and anxiety at 3 months (odds ratio 1.82, 95% CI 1.18-2.80), to have experienced suicidal thoughts within the past year at all time points (2.27, 1.33-3.89 at 3 months; 2.30, 1.17-4.50 at 6 months; 2.26, 1.30-3.95 at 12 months), and to report the pregnancy having had a negative effect on their lives at all time points (1.54, 1.04-2.30 at 3 months; 2.30, 1.56-3.39 at 6 months; 2.44, 1.63-3.65 at 12 months) than were women with uncomplicated delivery. INTERPRETATION: Women who give birth with severe obstetric complications are at greater risk of death and mental-health problems than are women with uncomplicated delivery. Greater resources are needed to ensure that these women receive adequate care before and after discharge from hospital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the United Kingdom, onsite religious services were halted during COVID-19 lockdowns, which were followed by various levels of restrictions on communal worship including social distancing, mandatory wearing of face masks, adequate ventilation and a ban on congregational singing and chanting. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of closures and changes within places of worship in response to the first lockdown in 2020, to assess the effect of the pandemic on religious practice and worshippers' wellbeing and religious coping., Methods: Participants were regular worshippers in the UK, recruited through an online survey using convenience sampling. Respondents were asked about their attitudes to changes to places of worship in the UK and their wellbeing and mental health, including assessment of their risk of depression and anxiety using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment (GAD-7) measures. Questionnaires were completed August to November 2020., Findings: 939 participants were included in the analysis. Median age was 52.7 years and 66.1 % were female. 80.7 % identified as Christian. 165 (19.3 %) had mild, 45 (5.3 %) moderate, 25 (2.9 %) moderately severe and 10 (1.2 %) severe depression, and 192 (22.5 %) had mild, 55 (6.4 %) moderate and 27 (3.2 %) severe anxiety, according to PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scores, respectively. Nearly half (46.4 %) reported that their mood and anxiety levels had worsened and 16.6 % reported that they felt the things they were doing in their lives were not worthwhile. The vast majority of respondents (92.7 %) reported that prayer had helped them cope with the way they had felt during lockdown: 29.2 % and 47.0 % reported that it helped moderately and a great deal, respectively. This 76.2 % had significantly lower levels of moderate/severe depression and anxiety (adjusted odds ratio: depression 0.37 (95%CI 0.22-0.63), anxiety 0.52 (95%CI 0.31-0.88)., Interpretation: Our study demonstrates the significant impact of COVID-19 on communal worshippers' mental health and reinforces the benefits of positive religious coping during the first UK lockdown. Barriers to communal worship participation during lockdowns, including access to appropriate technology, need to be recognised and facilitators identified., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a critical global health concern. A previous systematic review showed that migrants in Europe are at increased risk of AMR. Since the COVID-19 pandemic there have been rapid changes in patterns of antibiotic use, AMR, and migration. We aimed to present an updated evidence synthesis on the current distribution of AMR among migrants in Europe., Methods: We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis in accordance with PRISMA guidelines (PROSPERO ID: CRD42022343263). We searched databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed and Scopus) from 18 January 2017 until 18 January 2023 to identify primary data from observational studies reporting any laboratory-confirmed AMR among migrants in the European Economic Area (EEA) and European Union-15 (EU-15) countries using over 7 key search terms for migrants and over 70 terms for AMR and countries in Europe. Outcomes were infection with, or colonisation of AMR bacteria. Methodological quality was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Observational Studies. We meta-analysed the pooled-prevalence of infection and/or colonisation of AMR organisms., Findings: Among 630 articles, 21 observational studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. The pooled prevalence for any detected AMR was 28.0% (95% CI 18.0%-41.0%, I 2  = 100%) compared to a 25.4% seen in the previous review; gram-negative bacteria 31.0% (95% CI 20.0%-44.0%, I 2  = 100%), and methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus 10.0% (95% CI 5.0%-16.0%, I 2  = 99%). Drug-resistant bacteria were more prevalent in community settings in large migrant populations (pooled prevalence: 41.0%, 95% CI 24.0%-60.0%, I 2  = 99%) than in hospitals (21.0%, 95% CI 12.0%-32.0%, I 2  = 99%). AMR estimates in 'other' migrants were 32.0%, (95% CI 12.0%-57.0%, I 2  = 100%) and 28.0% (95% CI 18.0%-38.0%, I 2  = 100%) in forced migrants. No firm evidence of AMR acquisition with arrival time or length of stay in the host country was found., Interpretation: Studies investigating AMR in migrants are highly heterogenous. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic, migrants may be at higher risk of acquiring resistant bacteria, particularly gram-negative bacteria, within community settings such as refugee camps and detention centres in Europe. Our study highlights the importance of infrastructure and hygiene measures within these settings, to mitigate transmission of resistant pathogens. Policy-makers should screen for AMR in migrants prior to departure from countries of origin, where feasible, and upon arrival to a new country to ensure optimal health screening, infection control and effective treatment., Funding: There was no funding source for this study., Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests. DP is supported by a NIHR Doctoral Research Fellowship (NIHR302338). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. MP is supported by the NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and NIHR Applied Health Collaboration East Midlands, as well as a NIHR Development and Skills Enhancement Award. SH is funded by the NIHR (NIHR300072), the Academy of Medical Sciences (SBF005l1), La Caixa Foundation (LCF/PR/SP21/52930003), Research England, MRC and WHO., (© 2024 The Authors.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in disproportionate consequences for ethnic minority groups and Indigenous Peoples. We present an application of the Priority Public Health Conditions (PPHC) framework from the World Health Organisation (WHO), to explicitly address COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses of pandemic potential. This application is supported by evidence that ethnic minority groups were more likely to be infected, implying differential exposure (PPHC level two), be more vulnerable to severe disease once infected (PPHC level three) and have poorer health outcomes following infection (PPHC level four). These inequities are driven by various interconnected dimensions of racism, that compounds with socioeconomic context and position (PPHC level one). We show that, for respiratory viruses, it is important to stratify levels of the PPHC framework by infection status and by societal, community, and individual factors to develop optimal interventions to reduce inequity from COVID-19 and future infectious diseases outbreaks., Competing Interests: SVK was co-chair of the Scottish Government’s Expert Reference Group on Ethnicity and COVID-19 and a member of the UK Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) subgroup on ethnicity. All other authors report no conflicts of interest., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: Healthcare workers' (HCW) well-being has a direct effect on patient care. However, little is known about the prevalence and patterns of long-term medical conditions in HCWs, especially those from ethnic minorities. This study evaluated the burden of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs), i.e. the presence of two or more single long-term conditions (LTCs), among HCWs in the United Kingdom (UK) and variation by ethnicity and migration status., Methods: We used baseline data from the UK-REACH cohort study collected December 2020-March 2021. We used multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for demographic, occupational and lifestyle factors to examine the relationship between self-reported LTCs/MLTCs and ethnicity, migration status and time since migration to the UK., Results: Of 12,100 included HCWs, with a median age of 45 years (IQR: 34-54), 27% were overseas-born, and 30% were from non-White ethnic groups (19% Asian, 4% Black, 4% Mixed, 2% Other). The most common self-reported LTCs were anxiety (14.9%), asthma (12.2%), depression (10.7%), hypertension (8.7%) and diabetes (4.0%). Mental health conditions were more prevalent among UK-born than overseas-born HCWs for all ethnic groups (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) using White UK-born as the reference group each time: White overseas-born 0.77, 95%CI 0.66-0.95 for anxiety). Diabetes and hypertension were more common among Asian (e.g. Asian overseas, diabetes aOR 2.97, 95%CI 2.30-3.83) and Black (e.g. Black UK-born, hypertension aOR 1.77, 95%CI 1.05-2.99) groups than White UK-born. After adjustment for age, sex and deprivation, the odds of reporting MLTCs were lower in most ethnic minority groups and lowest for those born overseas, compared to White UK-born (e.g. White overseas-born, aOR 0.68, 95%CI 0.55-0.83; Asian overseas-born aOR 0.75, 95%CI 0.62-0.90; Black overseas-born aOR 0.52, 95%CI 0.36-0.74). The odds of MLTCs in overseas-born HCWs were equivalent to the UK-born population in those who had settled in the UK for ≥ 20 years (aOR 1.14, 95%CI 0.94-1.37)., Conclusions: Among UK HCWs, the prevalence of common LTCs and odds of reporting MLTCs varied by ethnicity and migrant status. The lower odds of MLTCs in migrant HCWs reverted to the odds of MLTCs in UK-born HCWs over time. Further research on this population should include longitudinal studies with linkage to healthcare records. Interventions should be co-developed with HCWs from different ethnic and migrant groups focussed upon patterns of conditions prevalent in specific HCW subgroups to reduce the overall burden of LTCs/MLTCs., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: KK is Chair of the Ethnicity Subgroup of the UK Government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and a member of SAGE. SVK was co-chair of the Scottish Government Expert Reference Group on Ethnicity and COVID-19 and a member of the Ethnicity Subgroup of SAGE. MP reports grants from the UKRI-MRC, NIHR, Sanofi and Gilead outside the current work and has received consulting fees from QIAGEN.

Background/objective: Refugees and migrants to the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are disproportionately affected by infections, including tuberculosis (TB), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B and C (HBV/HCV) compared with the host population. There are inequities in the accessibility and quality of health services available to refugees and migrants in the Region. This has consequences for health outcomes and will ultimately impact the ability to meet Regional infection elimination targets., Methods: We reviewed academic and grey literature to identify national policies and guidelines for TB/HIV/HBV/HCV specific to refugees and migrants in the Member States of the WHO European Region and to identify: (i) evidence informing policy and (ii) barriers and facilitators to policy implementation., Results: Relatively few primary national policy/guideline documents were identified which related to refugees and migrants and TB [14 of 53 Member States (26%), HIV (n = 15, 28%) and HBV/HCV (n = 3, 6%)], which often did not align with the WHO recommendations, and for some countries, violated refugees' and migrants' human rights. We found extreme heterogeneity in the implementation of the WHO- and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)-advocated policies and recommendations on the prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care of TB/HIV/HBV/HCV infection among migrants across the Member States of the WHO European Region.There is great heterogeneity in implementation of WHO- and ECDC-advocated policies on the prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care of TB/HIV/HBV/HCV infection in refugees and migrants across the Member States in the Region., Conclusion: More transparent and accessible reporting of national policies and guidelines are required, together with the evidence base upon which these policy decisions are based. Political engagement is essential to drive the changes in national legislation to ensure equitable and universal access to the diagnosis and care for infectious diseases., (© International Society of Travel Medicine 2022. Published by Oxford University Press.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to restrictions such as social distancing and mandatory wearing of face masks. Singing and religious gatherings have been linked to infection clusters, and between 2020 and 2021 indoor congregational singing and chanting were prohibited in the United Kingdom. We evaluated attitudes to face mask use and their acceptability as well as changes within places of worship since their reopening in July up to autumn 2020. In this cross-sectional study, participants were recruited using convenience sampling through selective targeting of religious organisations and social media. Participants self-enrolled and completed an online questionnaire, which included open and closed questions. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with face mask acceptability. We performed thematic analysis to evaluate responses to open questions. A total of 939 participants were included in the analysis. Median age was 52.7 years and 66.1% were female, while 80.7% identified as Christian. A majority (672/861; 78.0%) of participants would find it acceptable to wear a face mask and reduce their singing or chanting volume if required, even though 428/681 (49.1%) found face masks to be uncomfortable. Multivariable regression found that younger age was associated with a higher acceptability of face masks (adjusted OR (aOR): 0.98 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.96-1.00), p = 0.0218). The majority of respondents stated that religious services had become shorter, attended by fewer people and with reduced singing or chanting. Most (869/893, 97.3%) stated their place of worship complied with government guidelines, with 803/887 (90.5%) reported that their place of worship enforced face mask wearing and 793/887 (89.4%) at least moderately happy with precaution measures. Our study demonstrates the significant impact of COVID-19 in places of worship but a high degree of compliance with guidelines. Face masks, despite practical difficulties, appeared to be more acceptable if there was an incentive of being able to sing and chant., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Introduction: In lower tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year), screening and preventive treatment (PT) for latent TB infection (LTBI) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is often recommended, yet guidelines advising which groups to prioritise for screening can be contradictory and implementation patchy. Evidence of LTBI screening cost-effectiveness may improve uptake and health outcomes at reasonable cost. Methods: Our systematic review assessed cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT strategies among PLWH in lower TB incidence countries to identify model-driving inputs and methodological differences. Databases were searched 1980-2020. Studies including health economic evaluation of LTBI screening of PLWH in lower TB incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year) were included. Results: Of 2,644 articles screened, nine studies were included. Cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH varied widely, with universal screening/PT found highly cost-effective by some studies, while only targeting to high-risk groups (such as those from mid/high TB incidence countries) deemed cost-effective by others. Cost-effectiveness of strategies screening all PLWH from studies published in the past five years varied from US$2828 to US$144,929/quality-adjusted life-year gained (2018 prices). Study quality varied, with inconsistent reporting of methods and results limiting comparability of studies. Cost-effectiveness varied markedly by screening guideline, with British HIV Association guidelines more cost-effective than NICE guidelines in the UK. Discussion: Cost-effectiveness studies of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH in lower TB incidence settings are scarce, with large variations in methods and assumptions used, target populations and screening/PT strategies evaluated. The limited evidence suggests LTBI screening/PT may be cost-effective for some PLWH groups but further research is required, particularly on strategies targeting screening/PT to PLWH at higher risk. Standardisation of model descriptions and results reporting could facilitate reliable comparisons between studies, particularly to identify those factors driving the wide disparity between cost-effectiveness estimates. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020166338 (18/03/2020)., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MP received grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from QIAGEN, outside the submitted work. RM also received personal fees from Gilead Sciences, outside the submitted work. ML was senior author of two studies included in the review and was a member of the BHIVA 2019 TB/HIV Guideline Group and the NICE 2016 TB Clinical Guideline Group; ML played no role in data extraction or assessment of study quality for this review. CV is a consultant for Oriole Global Health. All other authors have nothing to declare., (Copyright: © 2023 Baggaley RF et al.)

Background: Screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are key for TB control. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the British HIV Association (BHIVA) give conflicting guidance on which groups of people with HIV (PWH) should be screened, and previous national analysis demonstrated heterogeneity in how guidance is applied. There is an urgent need for a firmer clinical effectiveness evidence base on which to build screening policy., Methods: We conducted a systematic, programmatic LTBI-screening intervention for all PWH receiving care in Leicester, UK. We compared yields (percentage IGRA positive) and number of tests required when applying the NICE and BHIVA testing strategies, as well as strategies targeting screening by TB incidence in patients' countries of birth., Results: Of 1053 PWH tested, 118 were IGRA-positive (11.2%). Positivity was associated with higher TB incidence in country-of-birth [adjusted odds ratio, 50-149 cases compared with <50 cases/100 000: 11.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.79-28.10)]. There was high testing uptake (1053/1069, 98.5%). Appropriate chemoprophylaxis was commenced in 100 of 117 (85.5%) patients diagnosed with LTBI, of whom 96 of 100 (96.0%) completed treatment. Delivering targeted testing to PWH from countries with TB incidence greater than 150 per 100 000 population or any sub-Saharan African country, would have correctly identified 89.8% of all LTBI cases while cutting tests required by 46.1% compared with NICE guidance, performing as well as BHIVA 2018 guidance., Conclusion: Targeting screening to higher risk PWH increases yield and reduces the number requiring testing. Our proposed 'PWH-LTBI streamlined guidance' offers a simplified approach, with the potential to improve national LTBI-screening implementation., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Background: Regular vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 may be needed to maintain immunity in 'at-risk' populations, which include healthcare workers (HCWs). However, little is known about the proportion of HCWs who might be hesitant about receiving a hypothetical regular SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or the factors associated with this hesitancy., Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of questionnaire data collected as part of UK-REACH, a nationwide, longitudinal cohort study of HCWs. The outcome measure was binary, either a participant indicated they would definitely accept regular SARS-CoV-2 vaccination if recommended or they indicated some degree of hesitancy regarding acceptance (probably accept or less likely). We used logistic regression to identify factors associated with hesitancy for receiving regular vaccination., Results: A total of 5454 HCWs were included in the analysed cohort, 23.5% of whom were hesitant about regular SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Black HCWs were more likely to be hesitant than White HCWs (aOR 2.60, 95%CI 1.80-3.72) as were those who reported a previous episode of COVID-19 (1.33, 1.13-1.57 [vs those who tested negative]). Those who received influenza vaccination in the previous two seasons were over five times less likely to report hesitancy for regular SARS-CoV-2 vaccination than those not vaccinated against influenza in either season (0.18, 0.14-0.21). HCWs who trusted official sources of vaccine information (such as NHS or government adverts or websites) were less likely to report hesitancy for a regular vaccination programme. Those who had been exposed to information advocating against vaccination from friends and family were more likely to be hesitant., Conclusions: In this study, nearly a quarter of UK HCWs were hesitant about receiving a regular SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. We have identified key factors associated with hesitancy for regular SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, which can be used to identify groups of HCWs at the highest risk of vaccine hesitancy and tailor interventions accordingly. Family and friends of HCWs may influence decisions about regular vaccination. This implies that working with HCWs and their social networks to allay concerns about SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could improve uptake in a regular vaccination programme., Trial Registration: ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN11811602., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Some subpopulations of migrants to Europe are generally healthier than the population of the country of settlement, but are at increased risk of key infectious diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV, and viral hepatitis, as well as under- immunisation. Infection screening programmes across Europe work in disease silos with a focus on individual diseases at the time of arrival. We argue that European health-care practitioners and policy makers would benefit from developing a framework of universal health care for migrants, which proactively offers early testing and vaccinations by delivering multi-disease testing and catch-up vaccination programmes integrated within existing health systems. Such interventions should be codeveloped with migrant populations to overcome barriers faced in accessing services. Aligning policies with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control guidance for health care for migrants, community-based preventive health-care programmes should be delivered as part of universal health care. However, effective implementation needs appropriate funding, and to be underpinned by high-quality evidence., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests MP received grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from QIAGEN, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Anal intercourse (AI) is not uncommon among U.S. women and, when condomless, confers a far greater likelihood of HIV transmission than condomless vaginal intercourse. We aim to identify determinants preceding AI, among women with, and women without HIV., Methods: 3708 women living with (73%), and without HIV (27%) participating in the Women's Interagency HIV Study provided sexual behavior and other data at 6-monthly visits over a median of 9 years (1994-2014). We used generalized estimating equation models to examine sociodemographic, structural and behavioral determinants reported in the visit preceding (1) AI, and (2) condomless AI., Results: AI was reported at least once over follow-up by 31% of women without, and 21% with HIV. AI was commonly condomless; reported at 76% and 51% of visits among women living without HIV, and with HIV, respectively. Women reporting AI were more likely to be younger (continuous variable, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.96-0.98), Hispanic (aOR = 1.88, CI:1.47-2.41) or White (aOR = 1.62, CI:1.15-2.30) compared to Black, and have at least high school education (aOR = 1.33, CI:1.08-1.65). AI was more likely following the reporting of either (aOR = 1.35, CI:1.10-1.62), or both (aOR = 1.77, CI:1.13-2.82) physical and sexual violence, excessive drinking (aOR = 1.27, CI:1.05-1.66) or any drug use (aOR = 1.34, CI:1.09-1.66), multiple male partners (aOR = 2.64, CI:2.23-3.11), exchange sex (aOR = 3.45, CI:2.53-4.71), one or more female sex partners (aOR = 1.32, CI:1.01-1.75), condomless vaginal intercourse (aOR = 1.80, CI:1.53-2.09), and high depressive symptoms (aOR = 1.23, CI:1.08-1.39)., Conclusion: AI disproportionally follows periods of violence victimization, substance use, multiple sex partners and depression. Better prevention messaging and biomedical interventions that reduce acquisition or transmission risk are needed, but when AI occurs in the context of violence against women, as our findings indicate, focusing on gender-based violence reduction and immediate treatment to reduce HIV transmission risk is important., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: MP declares grants to his university from Gilead, Sanofi, and Qiagen, and a consultancy with Qiagen, a molecular diagnostics company, to advise on a presentation about occupational health screening for latent tuberculosis. BR is an academic member of the Immigration Law Practitioner's Association. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs), particularly those from ethnic minority groups, have been shown to be at disproportionately higher risk of infection with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to the general population. However, there is insufficient evidence on how demographic and occupational factors influence infection risk among ethnic minority HCWs., Methods and Findings: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the baseline questionnaire of the United Kingdom Research study into Ethnicity and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outcomes in Healthcare workers (UK-REACH) cohort study, administered between December 2020 and March 2021. We used logistic regression to examine associations of demographic, household, and occupational risk factors with SARS-CoV-2 infection (defined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), serology, or suspected COVID-19) in a diverse group of HCWs. The primary exposure of interest was self-reported ethnicity. Among 10,772 HCWs who worked during the first UK national lockdown in March 2020, the median age was 45 (interquartile range [IQR] 35 to 54), 75.1% were female and 29.6% were from ethnic minority groups. A total of 2,496 (23.2%) reported previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The fully adjusted model contained the following dependent variables: demographic factors (age, sex, ethnicity, migration status, deprivation, religiosity), household factors (living with key workers, shared spaces in accommodation, number of people in household), health factors (presence/absence of diabetes or immunosuppression, smoking history, shielding status, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status), the extent of social mixing outside of the household, and occupational factors (job role, the area in which a participant worked, use of public transport to work, exposure to confirmed suspected COVID-19 patients, personal protective equipment [PPE] access, aerosol generating procedure exposure, night shift pattern, and the UK region of workplace). After adjustment, demographic and household factors associated with increased odds of infection included younger age, living with other key workers, and higher religiosity. Important occupational risk factors associated with increased odds of infection included attending to a higher number of COVID-19 positive patients (aOR 2.59, 95% CI 2.11 to 3.18 for ≥21 patients per week versus none), working in a nursing or midwifery role (1.30, 1.11 to 1.53, compared to doctors), reporting a lack of access to PPE (1.29, 1.17 to 1.43), and working in an ambulance (2.00, 1.56 to 2.58) or hospital inpatient setting (1.55, 1.38 to 1.75). Those who worked in intensive care units were less likely to have been infected (0.76, 0.64 to 0.92) than those who did not. Black HCWs were more likely to have been infected than their White colleagues, an effect which attenuated after adjustment for other known risk factors. This study is limited by self-selection bias and the cross sectional nature of the study means we cannot infer the direction of causality., Conclusions: We identified key sociodemographic and occupational risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among UK HCWs, and have determined factors that might contribute to a disproportionate odds of infection in HCWs from Black ethnic groups. These findings demonstrate the importance of social and occupational factors in driving ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes, and should inform policies, including targeted vaccination strategies and risk assessments aimed at protecting HCWs in future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic., Trial Registration: The study was prospectively registered at ISRCTN (reference number: ISRCTN11811602)., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: MDT has had research collaborations with GlaxoSmithKline and Orion Pharma unrelated to the current work. KK is Director of the University of Leicester Centre for Black Minority Ethnic Health, Trustee of the South Asian Health Foundation and Chair of the Ethnicity Subgroup of the UK Government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). SC is Deputy Medical Director of the General Medical Council, UK Honorary Professor, University of Leicester. MP reports grants from Sanofi, grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from QIAGEN, outside the submitted work. ALG Co-investigator on UK-REACH, which is supported by a grant from the MRC-UK Research and Innovation (MR/V027549/1) and the Department of Health and Social Care through the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) rapid response panel to tackle COVID-19. Past funding by internal fellowships at the University of Leicester from the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund (204801/Z/16/Z) and the BHF Accelerator Award (AA/18/3/ 34220). Member of Wellcome Trust Longitudinal Populations studies COVID-19 questionnaire steering group, to design national questionnaire to capture impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the population. KRA is a member of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Diagnostics Advisory Committee, the NICE Decision and Technical Support Units, and is a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator Emeritus [NF-SI-0512-10159]. He has served as a paid consultant, providing unrelated methodological and strategic advice, to the pharmaceutical and life sciences industry generally, as well as to DHSC/NICE, and has received unrelated research funding from Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI), European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries & Associations (EFPIA), Pfizer, Sanofi and Swiss Precision Diagnostics/Clearblue. He has also received course fees from ABPI and is a Partner and Director of Visible Analytics Limited, a health technology assessment consultancy company.

Background and Aims: With the potential integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into clinical practice, it is essential to understand end users' perception of this novel technology. The aim of this study, which was endorsed by the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG), was to evaluate the UK gastroenterology and endoscopy communities' views on AI., Methods: An online survey was developed and disseminated to gastroenterologists and endoscopists across the UK., Results: One hundred four participants completed the survey. Quality improvement in endoscopy (97%) and better endoscopic diagnosis (92%) were perceived as the most beneficial applications of AI to clinical practice. The most significant challenges were accountability for incorrect diagnoses (85%) and potential bias of algorithms (82%). A lack of guidelines (92%) was identified as the greatest barrier to adopting AI in routine clinical practice. Participants identified real-time endoscopic image diagnosis (95%) as a research priority for AI, while the most perceived significant barriers to AI research were funding (82%) and the availability of annotated data (76%). Participants consider the priorities for the BSG AI Task Force to be identifying research priorities (96%), guidelines for adopting AI devices in clinical practice (93%) and supporting the delivery of multicentre clinical trials (91%)., Conclusion: This survey has identified views from the UK gastroenterology and endoscopy community regarding AI in clinical practice and research, and identified priorities for the newly formed BSG AI Task Force., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RK, RFB, OFA, NP, GC and SD declared no competing interests. MH received speaker fees from Cook Medical. DS is a shareholder in Odin Vision and Digital Surgery. LBL is a consultant and minor shareholder in Odin Vision. He has received research grants from Medtronic, Pentax Medical and DynamX; he is also on the advisory board for DynamX and Ninepoint Medical., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: none declared

Great progress has been made over the past 18 months in scientific understanding of the biology, epidemiology and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. Extraordinary advances have been made in vaccine development and the execution of clinical trials of possible therapies. However, uncertainties remain, and this review assesses these in the context of virus transmission, epidemiology, control by social distancing measures and mass vaccination and the effect on all of these on emerging variants. We briefly review the current state of the global pandemic, focussing on what is, and what is not, well understood about the parameters that control viral transmission and make up the constituent parts of the basic reproductive number R 0 . Major areas of uncertainty include factors predisposing to asymptomatic infection, the population fraction that is asymptomatic, the infectiousness of asymptomatic compared to symptomatic individuals, the contribution of viral transmission of such individuals and what variables influence this. The duration of immunity post infection and post vaccination is also currently unknown, as is the phenotypic consequences of continual viral evolution and the emergence of many viral variants not just in one location, but globally, given the high connectivity between populations in the modern world. The pattern of spread of new variants is also examined. We review what can be learnt from contact tracing, household studies and whole-genome sequencing, regarding where people acquire infection, and how households are seeded with infection since they constitute a major location for viral transmission. We conclude by discussing the challenges to attaining herd immunity, given the uncertainty in the duration of vaccine-mediated immunity, the threat of continued evolution of the virus as demonstrated by the emergence and rapid spread of the Delta variant, and the logistics of vaccine manufacturing and delivery to achieve universal coverage worldwide. Significantly more support from higher income countries (HIC) is required in low- and middle-income countries over the coming year to ensure the creation of community-wide protection by mass vaccination is a global target, not one just for HIC. Unvaccinated populations create opportunities for viral evolution since the net rate of evolution is directly proportional to the number of cases occurring per unit of time. The unit for assessing success in achieving herd immunity is not any individual country, but the world., (© 2021 The Authors.)

Background: Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model., Setting: World Health Organization regions., Methods: We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal)., Results: Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions., Conclusion: HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available., Competing Interests: K.J.L. and K.M.E.T. report a grant from GSK outside the submitted work. This work was funded by the World Health Organization, through the UNDP-UNFPAUNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Program of Research, Development, and Research Training in Human Reproduction, a cosponsored program executed by the WHO, and through support from the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) (NIH U01 AI108543). This work was partly supported by the HPTN Modelling Centre, which is funded by the NIH (NIH UM1 AI068617) through the HPTN Statistical and Data Management Center. R.S., H.L.C., R.F.B., J.S., L.S., and M.C.B. acknowledged funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and are also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. S.G. acknowledged additional funding support from NIH (U01AI139547). K.J.L. and K.M.E.T. thank the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol, in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), for research support. RH received funding from the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement, which is also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. Grant Ref: MR/R010161/1. R.F.B. is supported by a Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund Fellowship (204801/Z/16/Z). P.V. also acknowledged support from the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation at University of Bristol. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article, and they do not necessarily represent the views, decisions, or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated, the WHO, the NHS, the NIHR the Department of Health and Social Care, or Public Health England. The remaining authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

The World Health Organization's (WHO's) 2030 road map for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) emphasizes the importance of strengthened, institutionalized "post-elimination" surveillance. The required shift from disease-siloed, campaign-based programming to routine, integrated surveillance and response activities presents epidemiological, logistical, and financial challenges, yet practical guidance on implementation is lacking. Nationally representative survey programs, such as demographic and health surveys (DHS), may offer a platform for the integration of NTD surveillance within national health systems and health information systems. Here, we describe characteristics of DHS and other surveys conducted within the WHO Africa region in terms of frequency, target populations, and sample types and discuss applicability for post-validation and post-elimination surveillance. Maximizing utility depends not only on the availability of improved diagnostics but also on better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of transmission at low prevalence. To this end, we outline priorities for obtaining additional data to better characterize optimal post-elimination surveillance platforms., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Introduction: In lower tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year), screening and preventive treatment (PT) for latent TB infection (LTBI) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is often recommended, yet guidelines advising which groups to prioritise for screening can be contradictory and implementation patchy. Evidence of LTBI screening cost-effectiveness may improve uptake and health outcomes at reasonable cost. Methods: Our systematic review assessed cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT strategies among PLWH in lower TB incidence countries to identify model-driving inputs and methodological differences. Databases were searched 1980-2020. Studies including health economic evaluation of LTBI screening of PLWH in lower TB incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year) were included. Study quality was assessed using the CHEERS checklist. Results: Of 2,644 articles screened, nine studies were included. Cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH varied widely, with universal screening/PT found highly cost-effective by some studies, while only targeting to high-risk groups (such as those from mid/high TB incidence countries) deemed cost-effective by others. Cost-effectiveness of strategies screening all PLWH from studies published in the past five years varied from US$2828 to US$144,929/quality-adjusted life-year gained (2018 prices). Study quality varied, with inconsistent reporting of methods and results limiting comparability of studies. Cost-effectiveness varied markedly by screening guideline, with British HIV Association guidelines more cost-effective than NICE guidelines in the UK. Discussion: Cost-effectiveness studies of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH in lower TB incidence settings are scarce, with large variations in methods and assumptions used, target populations and screening/PT strategies evaluated. The limited evidence suggests LTBI screening/PT may be cost-effective for some PLWH groups but further research is required, particularly on strategies targeting screening/PT to PLWH at higher risk. Standardisation of model descriptions and results reporting could facilitate reliable comparisons between studies, particularly to identify those factors driving the wide disparity between cost-effectiveness estimates. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020166338 (18/03/2020)., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MP received grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from QIAGEN, outside the submitted work. RM also received personal fees from Gilead Sciences, outside the submitted work. ML was senior author of two studies included in the review and was a member of the BHIVA 2019 TB/HIV Guideline Group and the NICE 2016 TB Clinical Guideline Group; ML played no role in data extraction or assessment of study quality for this review. All other authors have nothing to declare., (Copyright: © 2021 Baggaley RF et al.)

Introduction: Condomless anal intercourse (AI) confers a far greater likelihood of HIV transmission than condomless vaginal intercourse (VI). However, little is known about AI practice over the life course of women, to what extent AI practice is condom-protected, and whether it is associated with other HIV risk behaviors. We aim to describe longitudinal AI practice among HIV-seronegative women and to identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of AI practice., Methods: Using data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study, an observational cohort of US women with or at risk for HIV, we described AI practice among HIV-seronegative participants. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify distinct AI trajectories. We used multinomial regression to examine associations between baseline characteristics and trajectory group membership., Results: A third of the 1,085 women in our sample reported any AI over follow-up (median follow-up = 14 years). AI decreased more sharply with age compared to VI. Consistent condom use during AI was low: twice the proportion of women never reported using condoms consistently during AI compared to during VI. 5 trajectory groups were identified: AI & VI persistors (N = 75) practiced AI and VI consistently over follow-up (AI & VI desistors (N = 169) tended to practice AI and VI when young only, while VI persistors (N = 549), VI desistors (N = 167), and AI & VI inactives (N = 125) reported varying levels of VI practice, but little AI. AI & VI persistors reported multiple male partners and exchange sex at more visits than other groups. Women who identified as bisexual/lesbian (vs heterosexual), who had ever experienced physical and sexual violence (vs never), and/or who reported above the median number of lifetime male sex partners (vs median or below) had approximately twice the odds of being AI & VI persistors than being VI persistors., Conclusions: We identified a small subgroup of women who practice AI and report inconsistent condom use along with other risk behaviors throughout the life course; they may therefore particularly benefit from ongoing access to HIV prevention services including pre-exposure prophylaxis. Owen BN, Baggaley RF, Maheu-Giroux M, et al. Patterns and Trajectories of Anal Intercourse Practice Over the Life Course Among US Women at Risk of HIV. J Sex Med 2020;17:1629-1642., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Receptive anal intercourse (RAI) carries a greater per-act risk of HIV acquisition than receptive vaginal intercourse (RVI) and may influence HIV epidemics driven by heterosexual sex. This systematic review explores the association between RAI and incident HIV among women, globally. We searched Embase and Medline through September 2018 for longitudinal studies reporting crude (cRR) or adjusted (aRR) relative risks of HIV acquisition by RAI practice among women. Of 27,563 articles identified, 17 eligible studies were included. We pooled independent study estimates using random-effects models. Women reporting RAI were more likely to acquire HIV than women not reporting RAI (pooled cRR = 1.56 95% CI 1.03-2.38, N = 18, I 2  = 72%; pooled aRR = 2.23, 1.01-4.92, N = 5, I 2  = 70%). In subgroup analyses the association was lower for women in Africa (pooled cRR = 1.16, N = 13, I 2  = 21%) than outside Africa (pooled cRR = 4.10, N = 5, I 2  = 79%) and for high-risk (pooled aRR = 1.69, N = 4, I 2  = 63%) than general-risk women (pooled aRR = 8.50, N = 1). Interview method slightly influenced cRR estimates (p value = 0.04). In leave-one-out sensitivity analyses pooled estimates were generally robust to removing individual study estimates. Main limitations included poor exposure definition, incomplete adjustment for confounders, particularly condom use, and use of non-confidential interview methods. More and better data are needed to explain differences in risk by world region and risk population. Women require better counselling and greater choice in prevention modalities that are effective during RVI and RAI.

HIV is more efficiently acquired during receptive anal intercourse (AI) compared to vaginal intercourse (VI) and may contribute substantially to female sex workers' (FSW) high HIV burden. We aim to determine how common and frequent AI is among FSW globally. We searched PubMed, Embase and PsycINFO for studies reporting the proportion of FSW practising AI (prevalence) and/or the number of AI acts (frequency) worldwide from 01/1980 to 10/2018. We assessed the influence of participant and study characteristics on AI prevalence (e.g. continent, study year and interview method) through sub-group analysis. Of 15,830 identified studies, 131 were included. Nearly all (N = 128) reported AI prevalence and few frequency (N = 13), over various recall periods. Most studies used face-to-face interviews (N = 111). Pooled prevalences varied little by recall period (lifetime: 15.7% 95%CI 12.2-19.3%, N = 30, I 2  = 99%; past month: 16.2% 95%CI 10.8-21.6%, N = 18, I 2  = 99%). The pooled proportion of FSW reporting < 100% condom use tended to be non-significantly higher during AI compared to during VI (e.g. any unprotected VI: 19.1% 95%CI 1.7-36.4, N = 5 and any unprotected AI: 46.4% 95%CI 9.1-83.6, N = 5 in the past week). Across all study participants, between 2.4 and 15.9% (N = 6) of all intercourse acts (AI and VI) were anal. Neither AI prevalence nor frequency varied substantially by any participant or study characteristics. Although varied, AI among FSW is generally common, inconsistently protected with condoms and practiced sufficiently frequently to contribute substantially to HIV acquisition in this risk group. Interventions to address barriers to condom use are needed.

Introduction: As HIV is very effectively acquired during condomless receptive anal intercourse (AI) with serodiscordant and viremic partners, the practice could contribute to the high prevalence among female sex workers (FSW) in eSwatini (formerly known as Swaziland). We aim to estimate the proportion reporting AI (AI prevalence) among Swazi FSW and to identify the correlates of AI practice in order to better inform HIV prevention interventions among this population., Methods: Using respondent-driven sampling (RDS), 325 Swazi FSW were recruited in 2011. We estimated the prevalence of AI and AI with inconsistent condom use in the past month with any partner type, and inconsistent condom use during AI and vaginal intercourse (VI) by partner type. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify behavioural and structural correlates associated with AI and AI with inconsistent condom use., Results: RDS-adjusted prevalence of AI and AI with inconsistent condom use was high, at 44%[95% confidence interval (95%CI):35-53%]) and 34%[95%CI:26-42%], respectively and did not vary by partner type. HIV prevalence was high in this sample of FSW (70%), but knowledge that AI increases HIV acquisition risk low, with only 10% identifying AI as the riskiest sex act. Those who reported AI were more likely to be better educated (adjusted odds ratio(aOR) = 1.92[95%CI:1.03-3.57]), to have grown up in rural areas (aOR = 1.90[95%CI:1.09-3.32]), have fewer new clients in the past month (aOR = 0.33[95%CI:0.16-0.68]), and for last sex with clients to be condomless (aOR = 2.09[95%CI:1.07-4.08]). Although FSW reporting AI in past month were more likely to have been raped (aOR = 1.95[95%CI:1.05-3.65]) and harassed because of being a sex worker (aOR = 2.09[95%CI:1.16-3.74]), they were also less likely to have ever been blackmailed (aOR = 0.50[95%CI:0.25-0.98]) or been afraid to walk in public places (aOR = 0.46[95%CI:0.25-0.87]). Correlates of AI with inconsistent condom use were similar to those of AI., Conclusions: AI is commonly practised and condom use is inconsistent among Swazi FSW. Sex act data are needed to determine how frequently AI is practiced. Interventions to address barriers to condom use are needed, as are biomedical interventions that reduce acquisition risk during AI., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Quantifying HIV-1 transmission risk per-act of anal intercourse (AI) is important for HIV-1 prevention. We updated previous reviews by searching Medline and Embase to 02/2018. We derived pooled estimates of receptive AI (URAI) and insertive AI (UIAI) risk unprotected by condoms using random-effects models. Subgroup analyses were conducted by gender, study design, and whether antiretroviral treatment (ART) had been introduced by the time of the study. Two new relevant studies were identified, one of which met inclusion criteria, adding three new cohorts and increasing number of individuals/partnerships included from 1869 to 14 277. Four studies, all from high-income countries, were included. Pooled HIV-1 risk was higher for URAI (1.25%, 95% CI 0.55%-2.23%, N = 5, I 2  = 87%) than UIAI (0.17%, 95 % CI 0.09%-0.26%, N = 3, I 2  = 0%). The sole heterosexual URAI estimate (3.38%, 95% CI 1.85%-4.91%), from a study of 72 women published in a peer-reviewed journal, was significantly higher than the men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) pooled estimate (0.75%, 95% CI 0.56%-0.98%, N = 4, P < 0.0001) and higher than the only other heterosexual estimate identified (0.4%, 95% CI 0.08%-2.0%, based on 59 women, excluded for being a pre-2013 abstract). Pooled per-act URAI risk varied by study design (retrospective-partner studies: 2.56%, 95% CI 1.20%-4.42%, N = 2 (one MSM, one heterosexual); prospective studies: 0.71%, 95% CI 0.51%-0.93%, N = 3 MSM, P < 0.0001). URAI risk was lower for studies conducted in the ART era (0.75%, 95% CI 0.52%-1.03%) than pre-ART (1.67%, 95% CI 0.44%-3.67%) but not significantly so (P = 0.537). Prevention messages must emphasize that HIV-1 infectiousness through AI remains high, even in the ART era. Further studies, particularly among heterosexual populations and in resource-limited settings, are required to elucidate whether AI risk differs by gender, region and following population-level ART scale-up., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care., Methods: We modelled the effect of the four-times higher diagnosis rate observed in the intervention arm of the RHIVA2 randomised controlled trial done in Hackney, London (UK), a borough with high HIV prevalence (≥0·2% adult prevalence). We constructed a dynamic, compartmental model representing incidence of infection and the effect of screening for HIV in general practices in Hackney. We assessed cost-effectiveness of the RHIVA2 trial by fitting model diagnosis rates to the trial data, parameterising with epidemiological and behavioural data from the literature when required, using trial testing costs and projecting future costs of treatment., Findings: Over a 40 year time horizon, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £22 201 (95% credible interval 12 662-132 452) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, £372 207 (268 162-1 903 385) per death averted, and £628 874 (434 902-4 740 724) per HIV transmission averted. Under this model scenario, with UK cost data, RHIVA2 would reach the upper National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold (about £30 000 per QALY gained) after 33 years. Scenarios using cost data from Canada (which indicate prolonged and even higher health-care costs for patients diagnosed late) suggest this threshold could be reached in as little as 13 years., Interpretation: Screening for HIV in primary care has important public health benefits as well as clinical benefits. We predict it to be cost-effective in the UK in the medium term. However, this intervention might be cost-effective far sooner, and even cost-saving, in settings where long-term health-care costs of late-diagnosed patients in high-prevalence regions are much higher (≥60%) than those of patients diagnosed earlier. Screening for HIV in primary care is cost-effective and should be promoted., Funding: NHS City and Hackney, UK Department of Health, National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: HIV is transmitted more effectively during anal intercourse (AI) than vaginal intercourse (VI). However, patterns of heterosexual AI practice and its contribution to South Africa's generalized epidemic remain unclear. We aimed to determine how common and frequent heterosexual AI is in South Africa., Methods: We searched for studies reporting the proportion practising heterosexual AI (prevalence) and/or the number of AI and unprotected AI (UAI) acts (frequency) in South Africa from 1990 to 2015. Stratified random-effects meta-analysis by sub-groups was used to produce pooled estimates and assess the influence of participant and study characteristics on AI prevalence. We also estimated the fraction of all sex acts which were AI or UAI and compared condom use during VI and AI., Results: Of 41 included studies, 31 reported on AI prevalence and 14 on frequency, over various recall periods. AI prevalence was high across different recall periods for sexually active general-risk populations (e.g. lifetime = 18.4% [95%CI:9.4-27.5%], three-month = 20.3% [6.1-34.7%]), but tended to be even higher in higher-risk populations such as STI patients and female sex workers (e.g. lifetime = 23.2% [0.0-47.4%], recall period not stated = 40.1% [36.2-44.0%]). Prevalence was higher in studies using more confidential interview methods. Among general and higher-risk populations, 1.2-40.0% and 0.7-21.0% of all unprotected sex acts were UAI, respectively. AI acts were as likely to be condom protected as vaginal acts., Conclusion: Reported heterosexual AI is common but variable among South Africans. Nationally and regionally representative sexual behaviour studies that use standardized recall periods and confidential interview methods, to aid comparison across studies and minimize reporting bias, are needed. Such data could be used to estimate the extent to which AI contributes to South Africa's HIV epidemic.

Purpose: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a progressive, malignant neoplasia with a worldwide, age-standardized annual incidence of 1.5 per 100 000 individuals and 5-year prevalence around 230 000 patients. Main favorable prognostic factors are younger age, low/standard cytogenetic risk, and undergoing stem cell transplantation. Our aim was to estimate the size of the patient population with MM eligible to receive a new MM therapy at different lines of therapy in the USA., Methods: We constructed a compartmental, differential equation model representing the flow of MM patients from diagnosis to death, via two possible treatment pathways and distinguished in four groups based on prognostic factors. Parameters were obtained from published references, available statistics, and assumptions. The model was used to estimate number of diagnosed MM patients and number of patient transitions from one line of therapy to the next over 1 year. Model output included 95% credible intervals from probabilistic sensitivity analyses., Results: The base-case estimates were 80 219 patients living with MM, including 70 375 on treatment, 780 symptomatic untreated patients, and 9064 asymptomatic untreated patients. Over a 1-year period, the number of MM patients on treatment line 1 was estimated at 23 629 (credible intervals 22 236-25 029), and the number of transitions from treatment line 1 to treatment line 2 was estimated at 14 423., Conclusions: The size of the patient population with MM on different lines of therapy and in patient subgroups of interest estimated from this epidemiologic model can be used to assess the number of patients who could benefit from new MM therapies and their corresponding budgetary impact. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: In Senegal, only 12% of women of reproductive age in union (WRAU) were using contraceptives and another 29% had an unmet need for contraceptives in 2010-11. One potential barrier to accessing contraceptives is the lack of stock availability in health facilities where women seek them. Multiple supply chain interventions have been piloted in low- and middle-income countries with the aim of improving contraceptive availability in health facilities. However, there is limited evidence on the effect of these interventions on contraceptive availability in facilities, and in turn on family planning use in the population. This evaluation protocol pertains to a supply chain intervention using performance-based contracting for contraceptive distribution that was introduced throughout Senegal between 2012 and 2015., Methods: This multi-disciplinary research project will include quantitative, qualitative and economic evaluations. Trained researchers in the different disciplines will implement the studies separately but alongside each other, sharing findings throughout the project to inform each other's data collection. A non-randomised study with stepped-wedge design will be used to estimate the effect of the intervention on contraceptive stock availability in health facilities, and on the modern contraceptive prevalence rate among women in Senegal, compared to the current pull-based distribution model used for other commodities. Secondary data from annual Service Provision Assessments and Demographic and Health Surveys will be used for this study. Data on stock availability and monthly family planning consultations over a 4-year period will be collected from 200 health facilities in five regions to perform time series analyses. A process evaluation will be conducted to understand the extent to which the intervention was implemented as originally designed, the acceptability of third-party logisticians within the health system and potential unintended consequences. These will be assessed using monthly indicator data from the implementer and multiple ethnographic methods, including in-depth interviews with key informants and stakeholders at all levels of the distribution system, observations of third-party logisticians and clinic diaries. An economic evaluation will estimate the cost of the intervention, as well as its cost-effectiveness compared to the current supply chain model., Discussion: Given the very limited evidence base, there is an important need for a comprehensive standardised approach to evaluating supply chain management, and distribution specifically. This evaluation will help address this evidence gap by providing rigorous evidence on whether private performance-based contracting for distribution of contraceptives can contribute to improving access to family planning in low- and middle-income countries.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the role of the private sector in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We used Demographic and Health Surveys for 57 countries (2000-2013) to evaluate the private sector's share in providing three reproductive and maternal/newborn health services (family planning, antenatal and delivery care), in total and by socio-economic position., Methods: We used data from 865 547 women aged 15-49, representing a total of 3 billion people. We defined 'met and unmet need for services' and 'use of appropriate service types' clearly and developed explicit classifications of source and sector of provision., Results: Across the four regions (sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East/Europe, Asia and Latin America), unmet need ranged from 28% to 61% for family planning, 8% to 22% for ANC and 21% to 51% for delivery care. The private-sector share among users of family planning services was 37-39% across regions (overall mean: 37%; median across countries: 41%). The private-sector market share among users of ANC was 13-61% across regions (overall mean: 44%; median across countries: 15%). The private-sector share among appropriate deliveries was 9-56% across regions (overall mean: 40%; median across countries: 14%). For all three healthcare services, women in the richest wealth quintile used private services more than the poorest. Wealth gaps in met need for services were smallest for family planning and largest for delivery care., Conclusions: The private sector serves substantial numbers of women in LMICs, particularly the richest. To achieve universal health coverage, including adequate quality care, it is imperative to understand this sector, starting with improved data collection on healthcare provision., (© 2016 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Diagnostics play a crucial role in determining treatment protocols and evaluating success of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes used to control soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). The current diagnostic, Kato-Katz, relies on inexpensive, reusable materials and can be used in the field, but only trained microscopists can read slides. This diagnostic always underestimates the true prevalence of infection, and the accuracy worsens as the true prevalence falls. We investigate how more sensitive diagnostics would impact on the management and life cycle of MDA programmes, including number of mass treatment rounds, health impact, number of unnecessary treatments and probability of elimination. We use an individual-based model of STH transmission within the current World Health Organization (WHO) treatment guidelines which records individual disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost. We focus on Ascaris lumbricoides due to the availability of high-quality data on existing diagnostics. We show that the effect of improving the sensitivity of diagnostics is principally determined by the precontrol prevalence in the community. Communities at low true prevalence (<30%) and high true prevalence (>70%) do not benefit greatly from improved diagnostics. Communities with intermediate prevalence benefit greatly from increased chemotherapy application, both in terms of reduced DALY loss and increased probability of elimination. Our results suggest that programmes should be extended beyond school-age children, especially in high prevalence communities. Finally, we argue against using apparent or measured prevalence as an uncorrected proxy for true prevalence., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa., Methods: A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R0)., Results: The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R0) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions., Conclusions: LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.

We aim to assess if heterosexual anal intercourse (AI) is commonly practiced and how frequently it is practiced by young people. We searched PubMed for articles published 1975 to July 2014 reporting data on the proportion of young people (mean age <25) practicing heterosexual AI (AI prevalence) and on number of AI acts (AI frequency). Stratified random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to produce summary estimates and assess the influence of participant and study characteristics on AI prevalence. Eighty-three and thirteen of the 136 included articles reported data on lifetime AI prevalence and monthly AI frequency, respectively. Estimates were heterogenous. Overall summary estimates of lifetime AI prevalence were 22 % (95 % confidence interval 20-24) among sexually active young people, with no statistically significant differences by gender, continent or age. Prevalence increased significantly with confidentiality of interview method and, among males and in Europe, by survey year. Prevalence did not significantly differ by recall period. An estimated 3-24 % of all reported sex acts were AI. Reported heterosexual AI is common but variable among young people worldwide. To fully understand its impact on STI spread, more and better quality data on frequency of unprotected AI, and trends over time are required.

High HIV-1 plasma viral loads (PVLs) in sub-Saharan Africa, partly because of high rates of coinfection, may have been one of the drivers of the "explosive" epidemics seen in that region. Using a previously published framework of infectiousness and survival, we estimate the excess onward HIV-1 transmission events (secondary infections) resulting from coinfection-induced changes in PVL during asymptomatic HIV-1 infection. For every 100 HIV-infected people, each suffering 1 episode of tuberculosis infection, there are 4.9 (2.7th-97.5th percentile: 0.2-21.5) excess onward HIV-1 transmission events attributable to this coinfection. Other estimates are malaria 0.4 (0.0-2.0), soil-transmitted helminths 3.1 (0.1-14.9), schistosomiasis 8.5 (0.2-38.6), filariasis 13.3 (0.3-89.2), syphilis 0.1 (0.0-1.6), herpes simplex virus 4.0 (0.0-24.2), and gonorrhea 2.1 (0.1-8.0) transmissions. If these higher PVLs confer a shorter life expectancy and higher infectiousness, then their impact on transmission is, in general, reduced. For most HIV-1 coinfections, the duration of a single infection is too short and/or the associated PVL elevation is too modest to contribute substantially to onward HIV-1 transmission.

Background: Long-term seroprotection data are essential for decision-making on the need and timing of vaccine boosters. Based on data from longitudinal serological studies, modeling can provide estimates on long-term antibody persistence and inform such decision-making., Methods: We examined long-term anti-hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) antibody persistence in Argentinean children ≤15 years after the initial study where they completed a 2-dose course of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine (Avaxim 80U Pediatric, Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon, France). Blood serum samples were taken at baseline, 2 weeks (post first dose), 6 months (pre-booster), 6.5 months (post-booster), 10 years and 14-15 years after first vaccine dose. We fitted 8 statistical model types, predominantly mixed effects models, to anti-HAV persistence data, to identify the most appropriate and best fitting models for our data set and to predict individuals' anti-HAV levels and seroprotection rates up to 30 years post vaccination., Results: Fifty-four children (mean age at enrollment 30.4 months) were enrolled up to 15 years post first vaccine dose. There were 3 distinct periods of antibody concentration: rapid rise up to peak concentration post-booster, rapid decay from post-booster to 10 years, followed by slower decay. A 3-segmented linear mixed effects model was the most appropriate for the data set. Extrapolating based on the available 14-15-year follow-up, the analysis predicted that 88% of individuals anti-HAV seronegative prior to vaccination would remain seroprotected at 30 years post vaccination and lifelong seroprotection for vaccinees seropositive prior to vaccination., Conclusions: Currently available data demonstrate that Avaxim 80U Pediatric confers to most vaccinees a high level of seroprotection against hepatitis A infection for at least 20-30 years.

Background: Since the original licensing of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination for women, evidence is accumulating of its effectiveness in preventing HPV-related conditions in men, and universal vaccination (vaccinating men and women) is now recommended in some countries. Several models of the cost-effectiveness of universal HPV vaccination have been published, but results have been mixed. This article assesses the extent to which economic studies have captured the range of values associated with universal HPV vaccination, and how this influences estimates of its cost-effectiveness., Methods: Eight published economic evaluations of universal HPV vaccination were reviewed to identify which of the values associated with universal HPV vaccination were included in each analysis., Results: Studies of the cost-effectiveness of universal HPV vaccination capture only a fraction of the values generated. Most studies focused on impacts on health and health system cost, and only captured these partially. A range of values is excluded from most studies, including impacts on productivity, patient time and costs, carers and family costs, and broader social values such as the right to access treatment. Further, those studies that attempted to capture these values only did so partially., Discussion: Decisions to invest in universal HPV vaccination need to be based on a complete assessment of the value that it generates. This is not provided by existing economic evaluations. Further work is required to understand this value. First, research is required to understand how HPV-related health outcomes impact on society including, for instance, their impact on productivity. Second, consideration should be given to alternative approaches to capture this broader set of values in a manner useful to decisions-makers, such as multi-criteria decision analysis., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Heterosexual anal intercourse confers a much greater risk of HIV transmission than vaginal intercourse, yet its contribution to heterosexual HIV epidemics has been under-researched. In this article we review the current state of knowledge of heterosexual anal intercourse practice worldwide and identify the information required to assess its role in HIV transmission within heterosexual populations, including input measures required to inform mathematical models. We then discuss the evidence relating anal intercourse and HIV with sexual violence., (© 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.)