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Structural changes have occurred in the grain logistics systems of the Great Plains states and the Canadian prairie provinces. One aspect of the structural changes has been an increase in grain trucking and a corresponding decline in short line railroad traffic. In Kansas, grain is the principal commodity market of short lines, and as more grain has been shipped by truck, short lines have lost market share in their most important market, threatening the long run viability of these railroads, which could have negative implications for rural communities. The objective of this paper is to measure the change in Kansas state highway damage costs, resulting from assumed abandonment of short line railroads. Using Arc View Geographic Information System (GIS) software and a truck routing algorithm from Babcock and Bunch (2002), a network model was developed to route wheat through the logistics system to achieve minimum transportation costs. This analysis was performed with and without short line railroads in the wheat logistics system. The network model reveals how many wheat carloadings occur at each station on each of the short lines in the study area. Abandonment is assumed, and the short line carloadings at each station are converted to truckloads. A pavement model developed by Tolliver was used to calculate the additional damage costs for state roads attributable to the increased grain trucking following simulated short line abandonment. Total annual road damage costs resulting from simulated abandonment was $57.8 million. Of this total, the Kansas and Oklahoma Railroad accounts for 53%; the Kyle Railroad, 27%; the Cimarron Valley Railroad, 15%; and the Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado Railnet, 5%. The average road damage cost per truck mile for the study area was $7.15, and the average road damage cost per rail mile abandoned was $32,811. Incremental state fuel tax revenue generated by simulated abandonment was only 0.5% of annual road damage cost.

Structural changes have occurred in the grain logistics systems of the Great Plains states and the Canadian prairie provinces. One aspect of the structural changes has been an increase in grain trucking and a corresponding decline in short line railroad traffic. In Kansas, grain is the principal commodity market of short lines, so as more grain has been shipped by truck, short lines have lost market share in their most important market, threatening the long run viability of these railroads. Short line railroad abandonment could have several negative impacts on rural communities, so it is important to measure the quantifiable aspects of abandonment. The objective of this paper is to measure the change in transportation and handling cost of Kansas wheat, resulting from simulated abandonment of short line railroads. Using Arc View Geographic Information System (GIS) software and a truck routing algorithm from Babcock and Bunch (2002), wheat is routed through the Kansas wheat logistics system to achieve minimum transportation and handling costs. This analysis is performed with and without study area short line railroads in the wheat logistics system. The difference in the two scenarios is the impact of short line abandonment on Kansas wheat transportation and handling costs. Results indicated that there was virtually no difference in the total transportation costs of the wheat logistics system with or without abandonment of short line railroads. Total transport cost for the no-abandonment scenario was $126.6 million, and $124.9 million for the simulated abandonment scenario. While total transportation cost was unaffected by short line abandonment, total wheat handling cost increased $22.4 million as a result of short line abandonment. Thus, total transportation and handling cost was $20.7 million higher in the simulated short line abandonment scenario. It was also estimated that short line abandonment would reduce Kansas farm income by $17.4 million.

Structural changes have occurred in the Great Plains grain logistics system that have bad the effect of increasing the amount of grain trucking. These changes could have negative effects on rural communities and short line railroads. The objectives of this paper are (a) to identify changes in Kansas grain transportation that are diverting more grain traffic to trucking, (b) to identify the reasons for increased grain trucking, and (c) to measure the effect of the changes on Kansas short line grain traffic and financial condition. The objectives of the study were achieved through personal interviews of shippers located on Kansas short line railroads, executives of these Kansas railroads, and the Vice Presidents of Agricultural Products for the two major Class I railroads serving the state. These three groups also completed questionnaires. The shippers as a group indicated that they are shipping more grain by truck because they view truck service and prices as better than that of railroads, and because the best corn, sorghum and soybean markets are better served by truck than by rail. A majority of the short line railroad executives designated construction of unit train facilities on Class I railroads as a significant cause of increased grain trucking. Increased farmer ownership of large trucks contributed to this trend as well. The impact of increased grain trucking on short line grain traffic, estimated by the short line executives, varied by railroad with a 6 to 10% reduction being the least amount and a 21 to 30% reduction the greatest. The short line executives estimated that increased grain trucking had reduced their profits by 11 to 20%.

This article develops a method of forecasting grain transportation through Lock 27 of the Mississippi River. A time-series analysis offered a successful forecast for the year 2000.