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Energy is essential to supporting the modern life-style; it is the main driver to economic development and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Due to associated complexities and uncertainties, decision makers and energy planners face increasing pressure to effectively address energy related challenges, including approaches to low carbon energy provision. This study seeks to develop a long-term, 2010-2050, system dynamics (SD) model of the Nigerian power sector (NPS). The model then helps to investigate ways to bridge the electricity supply and demand gaps by simulating various performance scenarios based on real socio-economic variables and estimation of CO2. A total of six policy scenarios were implemented. These scenarios sought to evaluate the influence of the following four parameters: 1) transmission losses (Tx); 2) time to adjust capacity (TAC); 3) population growth rate (PGR); 4) capacities under construction. Accordingly, results not only showed that the completion of the existing project and the Mambilla multipurpose hydropower (MMHP) would make the NPS 71% energy secured, but also revealed a paradigm shift in CO2 reduction in the planning process considered by the study in contrast to the existing generations. Finally, capability of SD was affirmed by properly capturing feedbacks, delays, and other complexities in the NPS.

It is imperative that Nigeria reduces wastage in residential electricity consumption and motivate energy saving behaviors through energy efficiency measures. These strategies aim to minimize frequent power sheds, which in turn increase reliability, thus benefiting the environment and electricity consumers. This article examines the effects of such innovative approaches to electricity savings in Nigeria through: 1) prepaid electricity metering systems and 2) fast replacements of inefficient and aging appliances. Relationships between residential electricity consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon footprint were also assessed vis-a-vis the replacement of old energy appliances and analogue electricity billing systems with more efficient devices and through prepaid metering systems, respectively. These techniques intend to promote energy saving behaviors. A System Dynamics model built on Stella platform, is used to analyze the implication of energy efficiency policy implementation on residential electricity consumption based on a simulation period of 41 years (2010 - 2050). Secondary data were sourced from the Bureau of Statistics, published articles, Nigerian power sector, World Bank, and primary data using cross sectional surveys of residential electricity consumers. Results, not only revealed that availability and utilization of prepaid electric meters and efficient appliances would motivate electricity saving behaviors, but also showed that efficient technologies could be the main drivers to future energy savings. Results also showed that carbon emissions were cut down by 45% in 2050. In addition, changes in electricity tariffs did not have any consequential effect on electricity consumption, but would rather influence electricity demand. Also, large number of occupant per house might have a negative impact on the Nigerian economic growth. Finally, results suggest that subsidies should be used on new household appliances as an effective energy policy measures. The developed model can be replicated in similar sectors in other emerging economies.