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The question of flexibility in the natural gas industry reflects the very nature of the commodity: demand is not particularly flexible (especially residential) and supply does not always react to price signals in view of the heavy required investments in production, transportation and storage infrastructures. The new situation posed by the electric demand for natural gas serving as a backup to the intermittency of renewable energies poses enormous technical, physical, organizational and regulatory challenges. In this context, the supply and demand for flexibility is the result of a complex interaction between several factors: among them the development of natural gas trading hubs, renewable electricity production levels, the availability of cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or the development of floating storage. This thesis focuses on the challenges that call for flexibility mechanisms from the perspective of recent developments in the gas market. Three lines of research are investigated to account for the contractual weight of this industry, the degree of financialization of the gas market and finally the increased inter-flexibility that is emerging with the electricity market., La question de la flexibilité sur le marché du gaz naturel reflète la nature même de la commodité : la demande n'est pas particulièrement flexible (surtout résidentielle) et l'offre ne réagit pas toujours aux signaux de prix au vu des lourds investissements en infrastructure de production, transport et stockage requis. La nouvelle donne posée par la demande électrique de gaz naturel servant de back-up à l'intermittence des énergies renouvelables et envisagé de plus en plus comme une solution de stockage pose d'énormes défis techniques, physiques, organisationnels et réglementaires. Dans ce contexte, l'offre et la demande de flexibilité est le fruit d'une interaction complexe entre plusieurs facteurs : parmi eux le développement des hubs trading de gaz naturel, des niveaux de production d'électricité renouvelable, de la disponibilité des cargaisons de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) ou encore du développement du stockage flottant. Cette thèse s’intéresse aux enjeux qui font appel aux mécanismes de flexibilité sous la perspective des développements récents du marché gazier. Elle s’articule autour de trois axes d’étude cherchant à rendre compte du poids contractuel de cette industrie, de son degré de financiarisation ainsi que l’inter-flexibilité croissante qui se dessine avec le marché électrique.

We examine the profitability of flexible routing by LNG cargoes for a single supplier taking into account uncertainty in the medium-term dynamics of gas markets. First, we model the trajectory of natural gas prices in Asia, Northern America, and Europe using a Threshold Vector AutoRegression representation (TVAR) in which the system’s dynamics switches back and forth between high and low regimes of oil price volatility. We then use the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) obtained from the estimated threshold model to analyze the effects of volatility shocks on the regional gas markets dynamics. Lastly, the valuation of destination flexibility in LNG supplies is conducted using a real option approach. We generate a sample of possible future regional price trajectories using Monte Carlo simulations of our empirical model and determine for each trajectory the optimal shipping decisions and their profitability. Our results portend a substantial source of profit for the industry and reveal future movements of vessels. We discuss the conditional impact of destination flexibility on the globalization of natural gas markets.