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Summary: Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology.We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided.Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events.Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits – at least in the short term – due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harvesting the grapes before the monsoon season is crucial to ensure the quality of berry and bunches. This study aims to identify the optimal window for pruning and hydrogen cyanamide (HC) application to prepone the berry harvesting. The experiment was conducted in randomized complete block design with five treatments and four replications. Treatments were five different pruning dates in 2021: Jan. 17, Jan. 24, Jan. 31, Feb. 7 and Feb. 14, followed by 5% HC application one week after pruning. Annual growth stages of grapevine were recorded by using modified E-L growth stage; reproductive attributes recorded during flowering; and vine yield and berry quality attributes recorded at harvesting. The earlier pruning resulted earlier budburst compared to late pruning. Vines prunefed after Feb. 7 had

Climatic drivers alone do not adequately explain the regional variation in budburst timing in deciduous forests across Europe. Stand‐level factors, such as tree species richness, might affect budburst timing by creating different microclimates under the same site macroclimate. We assessed different phases of the spring phenology (start, midpoint, end, and overall duration of the budburst period) of four important European tree species (Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur and Tilia cordata) in monocultures and four‐species mixture stands of a common garden tree biodiversity experiment in Belgium (FORBIO) in 2021 and 2022. Microclimatic differences between the stands in terms of bud chilling, temperature forcing, and soil temperature were considerable, with four‐species mixtures being generally colder than monocultures in spring, but not in winter. In the colder spring of 2021, at the stand level, the end of the budburst period was advanced, and its overall duration shortened, in the four‐species mixtures. At species level, this response was significant for F. sylvatica. In the warmer spring of 2022, advances in spring phenology in four‐species stands were observed again in F. sylvatica and, less markedly, in B. pendula but without a general response at the stand level. Q. robur showed specific patterns with delayed budburst start in 2021 in the four‐species mixtures and very short budburst duration for all stands in 2022. Phenological differences between monocultures and four‐species mixtures were linked to microclimatic differences in light availability rather than in temperature as even comparatively colder microclimates showed an advanced phenology. Compared to weather conditions, tree species richness had a lower impact on budburst timing, but this impact can be of importance for key species like F. sylvatica and colder springs. These results indicate that forest biodiversity can affect budburst phenology, with wider implications, especially for forest‐ and land surface models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is affecting the phenological cycles of plants and animals, altering the complex synchronization that has co‐evolved over thousands of years between interacting species and trophic levels. Here, we examined how warmer winter conditions affect the timing of budburst in six common European trees and the hatching of a generalist leaf‐feeding insect, the spongy moth Lymantria dispar, whose fitness depends on the synchrony between egg hatch and leaf emergence of the host tree. We applied four different temperature treatments to L. dispar eggs and twig cuttings, that mimicked warmer winters and reduced chilling temperatures that are necessary for insect diapause and bud dormancy release, using heated open‐top chambers (ambient or +3.5°C), and heated greenhouses (maintained at >6°C or >10°C). In addition, we conducted preference and performance tests to determine which tree species the larvae prefer and benefit from the most. Budburst success and twig survival were highest for all tree species at ambient temperature conditions, whereas it declined under elevated winter temperature for Tilia cordata and Acer pseudoplatanus, likely due to a lack of chilling. While L. dispar egg hatch coincided with budburst in most tree species within 10 days under ambient conditions, it coincided with budburst only in Quercus robur, Carpinus betulus, and, to a lesser extent, Ulmus glabra under warmer conditions. With further warming, we, therefore, expect an increasing mismatch in trees with high chilling requirements, such as Fagus sylvatica and A. pseudoplatanus, but still good synchronization with trees having low chilling requirements, such as Q. robur and C. betulus. Surprisingly, first instar larvae preferred and gained weight faster when fed with leaves of F. sylvatica, while Q. robur ranked second. Our results suggest that spongy moth outbreaks are likely to persist in oak and hornbeam forests in western and central Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparative assessment of bud and wood phenology could aid a better understanding of tree growth dynamics. However, the reason for asynchronism or synchronism in leaf and cambial phenology remains unclear. To test the assumption that the temporal relationship between the budburst date and the onset date of wood formation is due to their common or different responses to environmental factors, we constructed a wood phenology dataset from previous literature, and compared it with an existing bud phenology dataset in Europe. We selected three common conifers (Larix decidua Mill. Picea abies (L.) H. Karst. and Pinus sylvestris L.) in both datasets and analyzed 909 records of the onset of wood formation at 47 sites and 238,720 records of budburst date at 3051 sites. We quantified chilling accumulation (CA) and forcing requirement (FR) of budburst and onset of wood formation based on common measures of CA and FR. We then constructed negative exponential CA–FR curves for bud and wood phenology separately. The results showed that the median, variance and probability distribution of CA–FR curves varied significantly between bud and wood phenology for three conifers. The different FR under the same chilling condition caused asynchronous bud and wood phenology. Furthermore, the CA–FR curves manifested that wood phenology was more sensitive to chilling than bud phenology. Thus, the FR of the onset of wood formation increases more than that of budburst under the same warming scenarios, explaining the stronger earlier trends in the budburst date than the onset date of woody formation simulated by the process-based model. Our work not only provides a possible explanation for asynchronous bud and wood phenology from the perspective of organ-specific responses to chilling and forcing, but also develops a phenological model for predicting both bud and wood phenology with acceptable uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is one of the main ways of increasing plant productivity through genetic engineering. The modification of nitrogen (N) metabolism can affect the hormonal content, but in transgenic plants, this aspect has not been sufficiently studied. Transgenic birch (Betula pubescens) plants with the pine glutamine synthetase gene GS1 were evaluated for hormone levels during rooting in vitro and budburst under outdoor conditions. In the shoots of the transgenic lines, the content of indoleacetic acid (IAA) was 1.5–3 times higher than in the wild type. The addition of phosphinothricin (PPT), a glutamine synthetase (GS) inhibitor, to the medium reduced the IAA content in transgenic plants, but it did not change in the control. In the roots of birch plants, PPT had the opposite effect. PPT decreased the content of free amino acids in the leaves of nontransgenic birch, but their content increased in GS-overexpressing plants. A three-year pot experiment with different N availability showed that the productivity of the transgenic birch line was significantly higher than in the control under N deficiency, but not excess, conditions. Nitrogen availability did not affect budburst in the spring of the fourth year; however, bud breaking in transgenic plants was delayed compared to the control. The IAA and abscisic acid (ABA) contents in the buds of birch plants at dormancy and budburst depended both on N availability and the transgenic status. These results enable a better understanding of the interaction between phytohormones and nutrients in woody plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Global warming is affecting the phenological cycles of plants and animals, altering the complex synchronization that has co‐evolved over thousands of years between interacting species and trophic levels. Here, we examined how warmer winter conditions affect the timing of budburst in six common European trees and the hatching of a generalist leaf‐feeding insect, the spongy moth Lymantria dispar, whose fitness depends on the synchrony between egg hatch and leaf emergence of the host tree. We applied four different temperature treatments to L. dispar eggs and twig cuttings, that mimicked warmer winters and reduced chilling temperatures that are necessary for insect diapause and bud dormancy release, using heated open‐top chambers (ambient or +3.5°C), and heated greenhouses (maintained at >6°C or >10°C). In addition, we conducted preference and performance tests to determine which tree species the larvae prefer and benefit from the most. Budburst success and twig survival were highest for all tree species at ambient temperature conditions, whereas it declined under elevated winter temperature for Tilia cordata and Acer pseudoplatanus, likely due to a lack of chilling. While L. dispar egg hatch coincided with budburst in most tree species within 10 days under ambient conditions, it coincided with budburst only in Quercus robur, Carpinus betulus, and, to a lesser extent, Ulmus glabra under warmer conditions. With further warming, we, therefore, expect an increasing mismatch in trees with high chilling requirements, such as Fagus sylvatica and A. pseudoplatanus, but still good synchronization with trees having low chilling requirements, such as Q. robur and C. betulus. Surprisingly, first instar larvae preferred and gained weight faster when fed with leaves of F. sylvatica, while Q. robur ranked second. Our results suggest that spongy moth outbreaks are likely to persist in oak and hornbeam forests in western and central Europe.

As spring frost proves to be an increasing risk throughout Slovenia and Europe, a better assessment of frost risk is needed. The statistical approach presented in this article consists of the conditional probability that the last spring frost occurs before budburst or flowering. The analysis was conducted using two separate phenological models and phenological data of various grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), apple (Malus domestica), and sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) varieties in locations across Slovenia. The increase in risk of spring frost for grapevine ranged from 1 to 1980, from 0.06 to 12 for apple, and from 1 to 180 for sweet cherry. Overall, the varieties most prone to frost proved to be Refošk (Teran) and Merlot grapevine varieties as well as the Germersdorf sweet cherry variety. We have identified the location in the hilly region with moderate climate where the Bobovec apple variety is grown as the least exposed to frost. Although counterintuitive, the GDD generally proved somewhat more efficient than the two-phase phenological model BRIN, although not in all cases. For the purpose of the study, the phenological models were calibrated, and the model parameters can serve as invaluable information for further research of this topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological shifts in response to changing climatic conditions is a key acclimation process for the persistence of perennial plants in temperate and boreal climates. The optimal time to leaf‐out is the result of an evolutionary process determined by the trade‐off between minimizing the risk of freezing damages and herbivory pressure while maximizing resource uptake to increase competitiveness against the other plants.We quantified the penalty exerted by frost damage at the time of leaf emergence on plant development (reduction in leaf area, canopy duration and growth) over the potential gains without frost (increased biomass and non‐structural carbohydrate reserves), depending on when leaf‐out occurs. To this purpose, we exposed 960 saplings of four temperate deciduous tree species with contrasting cold hardiness to two frost intensities shortly after leaf emergence, which was artificially induced at four occasions to reflect the whole range of natural leaf‐out dates.One year above‐ground biomass (AGB) increments following the frost revealed a clear ranking among the species depending on their strategy to cope with damaging frosts. Prunus avium (−41% of AGB‐increment compared to control saplings) resprouted from the stem base, Quercus robur (−62%) rapidly produced new leaves from dormant reserve buds, Fagus sylvatica (−98%) showed highest chlorophyll content in autumn and delayed senescence together with Carpinus betulus (−105%), which overcompensated NSC reserves after the growing season but showed highest mortality (up to 32%). In all species, NSC reserves recovered rapidly to control levels at the expense of growth.The timing of leaf‐out (advanced and delayed artificially) significantly affected the performance and recovery (regreening and growth) of both frozen and non‐frozen saplings, with the lowest performance found at the most delayed leaf‐out date. We propose that the potential to recover from frost damages is an important component of a tree's performance, particularly at the juvenile stage. The ability to recover may become even more decisive in the future with the predicted increase of false springs in many extratropical regions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: Climate change may lead to C stress (negative C balance) in trees. Because nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) are required during metabolic reactivation in the spring, C stress might delay budbreak timing. This effect is expected to be greater in shade‐intolerant than in shade‐tolerant species, owing to the faster C economy in the shade‐intolerant. Methods: We experimentally induced C stress in saplings of six temperate tree species that differed in their light requirements by exposing them to either full light or shade from summer to spring, then recorded the date of first budbreak for the individuals. Because the levels of C reserves that represent effective C stress may differ among species, we estimated the degree of C stress by recording survival during the experiment and measuring whole‐sapling NSC concentrations after budbreak. Results: Shade reduced NSC concentrations and increased the sugar fraction in the NSC in all species. In the shade, shade‐intolerant species had higher mortality and generally lower NSC concentrations than the shade‐tolerant species, indicating a trend for more severe C stress in species with faster C economy. In shade‐intolerant species, budbreak started earlier and proceeded faster in full light than in shade, but in shade‐tolerant species budbreak was delayed in full light. The effects of the light environments on budbreak were not greater in shade‐intolerant than in shade‐tolerant species. Conclusions: Our study reveals a correspondence between budbreak responses to light and the light requirements of the species. This finding confirms that C metabolism has a significant role in triggering budbreak and demonstrates that whether C stress accelerates or delays budbreak depends on the species' light requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is one of the main ways of increasing plant productivity through genetic engineering. The modification of nitrogen (N) metabolism can affect the hormonal content, but in transgenic plants, this aspect has not been sufficiently studied. Transgenic birch (Betula pubescens) plants with the pine glutamine synthetase gene GS1 were evaluated for hormone levels during rooting in vitro and budburst under outdoor conditions. In the shoots of the transgenic lines, the content of indoleacetic acid (IAA) was 1.5–3 times higher than in the wild type. The addition of phosphinothricin (PPT), a glutamine synthetase (GS) inhibitor, to the medium reduced the IAA content in transgenic plants, but it did not change in the control. In the roots of birch plants, PPT had the opposite effect. PPT decreased the content of free amino acids in the leaves of nontransgenic birch, but their content increased in GS-overexpressing plants. A three-year pot experiment with different N availability showed that the productivity of the transgenic birch line was significantly higher than in the control under N deficiency, but not excess, conditions. Nitrogen availability did not affect budburst in the spring of the fourth year; however, bud breaking in transgenic plants was delayed compared to the control. The IAA and abscisic acid (ABA) contents in the buds of birch plants at dormancy and budburst depended both on N availability and the transgenic status. These results enable a better understanding of the interaction between phytohormones and nutrients in woody plants.

Bolivian viticulture is mostly found in the Central Valley of Tarija, which is characterised by a subtropical climate with high thermal oscillation in winter that results in low accumulation of chilling units. Such climatic conditions accentuate acrotony in vines, which affect budburst uniformity and, consequently, yield and bunch quality at harvest. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of different spur pruning strategies on the percentage of budburst and fertility of buds located in different nodal positions in both wine and table grape varieties growing in the Central Valley of Tarija. The results show that allocating spurs with fewer buds improved the budding of most of the distal buds studied. This was noted in both the wine and table grape cultivars, but mostly in the latter. Spur pruning leaving one bud improved the percentage of budburst and the fertility of the distal buds in Cabernet Sauvignon, Cardinal and Ribier, thereby preventing bud acrotony, compared to spur pruning leaving two buds. Spur pruning leaving two buds improved the budburst of latent buds in Cabernet Sauvignon. Therefore, to avoid acrotony patterns, viticulturists should perform pruning leaving one bud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In established vineyards, node number retention at winter pruning is the first step to achieving and maintaining vine balance. Balanced vines exhibit timely and quasi-uniform 100 percent budburst. To understand how vine capacity and balance are expressed before flowering, mature Sauvignon blanc vines were pruned according to a 5 [total node numbers on canes: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50] x 3 [total node numbers on spurs: 1, 2, 3] factorial design in one site, and in two other sites according to a 5 [total node numbers on canes: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50] x 2 [total node numbers on spurs: 1, 2] factorial design. Two spurs of one, two or three nodes each were retained on either side of the vine. The number of canes laid down per vine was one, two, three and four canes each of 10 nodes for the 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-node treatments, and four canes averaging 12.5 nodes for the 50-node treatment. The budburst percentage was calculated on the whole vine, canes, and spurs. Blind nodes, count shoots, non-count shoots and double shoots were counted and mapped along canes and spurs. Many non-count shoots were measured on the vine head of 10-node vines (29.5 ± 3.0 shoots, p

Summary: Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4–6 d °C−1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades – failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues – long‐documented in laboratory environments – are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long‐term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue‐space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well‐studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled‐environment studies with long‐term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information is highly scarce about the possible effect of a late spring frost on physiological response of buds in ornamental trees. In this study, spring temperature of Changchun at Northeast China was recorded to identify the characteristics of a false spring by detecting extraordinary warming and sudden freeze in early April of 2017. Buds of six local ornamental tree species were investigated for their dynamics in biomass, non-structural carbohydrates, frost resistance on days of 7, 14, 21, and 28 April 2017. According to a comparison with spring temperature records historically from 2007 to 2016, a false spring was determined. Black pine (Pinus tabuliformis var. mukdensis) had greater bud biomass than apricot (Prunus sibirica L.). Peach (Prunus persica L. var. persica f. rubro-plena Schneid.) reserved greater non-structural carbohydrate content in post-chilling buds than black pine, and apricot and willow (Salix babylonica L.) had greater soluble sugars and starch contents in buds, respectively. Cumulative number of days with temperature below 12°C had a negative relationship with relative conductance in sorbus (Sorbus pohuashanensis [Hance] Hedl.). Chokecherry (Padus virginiana 'Canada Red') had greatest bud starch content on 21 April. Overall, a late spring frost imposed interruption on carbohydrate metabolism rather than direct damage on buds of ornamental trees before late April. Advanced warming induced more pronounced negative impact of a false spring than the sudden decline of minimum temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As spring frost proves to be an increasing risk throughout Slovenia and Europe, a better assessment of frost risk is needed. The statistical approach presented in this article consists of the conditional probability that the last spring frost occurs before budburst or flowering. The analysis was conducted using two separate phenological models and phenological data of various grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), apple (Malus domestica), and sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) varieties in locations across Slovenia. The increase in risk of spring frost for grapevine ranged from 1 to 1980, from 0.06 to 12 for apple, and from 1 to 180 for sweet cherry. Overall, the varieties most prone to frost proved to be Refošk (Teran) and Merlot grapevine varieties as well as the Germersdorf sweet cherry variety. We have identified the location in the hilly region with moderate climate where the Bobovec apple variety is grown as the least exposed to frost. Although counterintuitive, the GDD generally proved somewhat more efficient than the two-phase phenological model BRIN, although not in all cases. For the purpose of the study, the phenological models were calibrated, and the model parameters can serve as invaluable information for further research of this topic.

Abstract This work evaluates how thermal regimes with constant or oscillating temperatures affect the onset and overcome of endodormancy in apple buds with low (‘Castel Gala’) and high (‘Royal Gala’) chilling requirements. Apple twigs were collected in Papanduva-SC orchards during the autumn/winter of 2010 and 2011, and submitted to constant (3°C) or cycling (3/15°C for 6/18h, 12/12h or 18/6h) temperatures for up to 1466 chilling hours (CH). Periodically, a portion of twigs in each treatment was transferred to 25°C, for budburst evaluation. An environmental stress in 2010 caused premature leaf fall on the field, reduced initial budburst in ‘Royal Gala’ samples and interfered with dormancy onset in both cultivars. Cycling temperature treatments with few CH/day decreased partially this effect, allowing buds to enter a dormancy state more efficiently. No significant stress was observed in the orchard in 2011, when dormancy evolution was similar in all thermal treatments, being induced with 54 and 123 CH and overcome with 363 and 662 CH for ‘Castel Gala’ and ‘Royal Gala’, respectively. Apparently, the manner in which apple bud dormancy is induced affects its depth and consequently the total number of chilling hours required to overcome it, making the onset phase fundamental in dormancy studies.

This study identified physiological and biochemical changes in 'Fuyu' persimmon buds during dormancy. Branches were collected between March and August 2015. Dormancy was evaluated by biological testing of isolated node cuttings at 25 °C and a photoperiod of 16 h. The variables analyzed were water content; reducing sugar content; respiratory activity; activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), guaiacol peroxidase (POD) and polyphenol oxidase (PPO) enzymes; hydrogen peroxide content (H2O2) and lipid peroxidation. At the end of March 2015, the plants were already dormant, and the leaves and fruits present indicated a paradormancy effect. Induction of endodormancy may have occurred in June 2015, when chilling hours (CH) below 7.2 °C and higher CH below 12 °C began to accumulate, which coincided with the period in which there was a decrease in water content and respiratory activity, an increase in reducing sugars, a decrease in SOD, CAT, APX and PPO and an increase in H2O2. After an accumulation of 553 CH below 12 °C, the budburst capacity increased, and the buds presented increased water content, decreased reducing sugars content, increased respiratory activity, low activity in SOD, CAT, APX and POD and high levels of H2O2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantified the chilling requirements for the induction and overcoming of endodormancy (chilling-controlled physiological dormancy) of grapevines buds. Cuttings of the cultivars Chardonnay, Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon were collected in vineyards in Veranópolis-RS in the winter period of 2019 and 2020. The cuttings were kept at a constant temperature of 7.2 °C or daily cycles of 7.2/18 °C for 6/18 h, 12/12 h or 18/6 h, up to 600 chilling hours (CH). Every 50 CH, part of the cuttings from each treatment was transferred to a temperature of 25 °C for daily assessment of the budburst in the green tip stage. The cultivars had different chilling requirements for inducing and overcoming endodormancy, reaching a total of 150 CH for 'Chardonnay', 300 CH for 'Merlot' and 400 CH for 'Cabernet Sauvignon'. Of these, 50 CH were required to induce endodormancy in cultivars Chardonnay and Merlot and 100 CH for cultivar Cabernet Sauvignon. Dormancy evolution did not differ between cultivars in response to thermal regimes, with a temperature of 18 °C inert to the accumulation of CH. Precocity and uniformity of budburst were higher after chilling requirements were met during endodormancy for each genotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt‐out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg‐laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011–2019) of data on egg‐laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt‐out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont‐Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg‐laying date, while at high‐altitude snow melt‐out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg‐laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events.

The study aimed to develop temperature-based models to predict the budburst and flowering dates in grapevine. The models were developed using phenological data for 20 wine cultivars grown in the region of Sremski Karlovci (Serbia) and temperature observations over the 1986-2007 period. The input variable for the budburst model was the mean daily temperature averaged over the period from 1 March to the event onset, while the input variable for the flowering model was the maximum daily temperature averaged over the period from 15 April to the event onset. The models proved to be capable of predicting the onset of budburst and flowering in grapevine with high accuracy. For 20 cultivars studied, the mean absolute differences between the observed and predicted budburst and flowering dates were on average 4 and 3 days, respectively.

Abstract The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of heat waves on the bud dormancy of grapevines with contrasting chilling requirements. ‘Chardonnay’, ‘Merlot’ and ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ hardwood cuttings were collected in vineyards of Veranópolis, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and were exposed to constant (7.2°C) or alternate (7.2 and 18°C for 12/12 hours) temperatures, combined with zero, one or two days a week at 25°C. Periodically, part of cuttings was transferred to 25°C for daily budburst evaluation. Endodormancy (dormancy controlled by cold) was overcome with 150 chilling hours (CH) at 7.2ºC in ‘Chardonnay’, 300 CH in ‘Merlot’ and 400 CH in ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’. Daily temperature cycles ranging from7.2ºC to 18°C did not affect the endodormancy process. Heat waves of 25°C resulted in increase in CH to overcome endodormancy. The negative effect of heat waves depended on their duration, with heat partially canceling out the chilling accumulation after 36 continuous hours on the dormancy. Such evidence shows that the dormancy evolution is affected by the impact of the heat interspersed with cold, and should be considered in the adjustment and/or development of better-adapted models for the prediction of the budburst potential of the grapevine culture in Southern Brazil.

Background and Aims: Spring phenological change of plants in response to global warming may affect many ecological processes and functions. Chilling temperature regulates budburst date by releasing dormancy. However, whether freezing temperature (<0°C) contributes to dormancy release is still debated. Our poor understanding of the role of chilling makes estimating shifts in budburst date difficult., Methods: A two-year chilling-forcing experiment was explicitly designed to test the effects of chilling temperatures on dormancy release of 9 temperate woody species in Beijing, China. A total of 1620 twigs were first exposed to a wide range of temperatures (-10 to 10 °C) with different durations and then moved to growth chambers. Based on budburst data in experimental conditions, we examined whether freezing temperatures are effective on dormancy release. We also developed a new framework for constructing chilling functions based on the curve between chilling duration and forcing requirement (FR) of budburst. The chilling function derived from this framework was not affected by experimental forcing conditions., Key Results: We demonstrated that freezing temperatures down to -10°C were effective in dormancy release. The rate of dormancy release, indicated by the rate of decay in chilling duration-FR curve, did not differ significantly between chilling temperatures in most cases, although it exhibited a maximum value at 0 or 5°C. The chilling function-associated phenological models could simulate budburst date from independent experimental and observational data with a mean RMSE of 7.07 days., Conclusions: The effective freezing temperatures found here are contrary to the well-known assumption of <0°C temperature generally not contributing to accumulated chilling in many previous chilling functions. A chilling function assuming that temperature below an upper-temperature threshold has the same effects on dormancy release could be adopted to calculate chilling accumulation when using experiments to develop spring phenological models based on the chilling-forcing relationship., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Summary: Microclimatic effects (light, temperature) are often neglected in phenological studies and little information is known about the impact of resource availability (nutrient and water) on tree's phenological cycles.Here we experimentally studied spring and autumn phenology in four temperate trees in response to changes in bud albedo (white‐painted vs black‐painted buds), light conditions (nonshaded vs c. 70% shaded), water availability (irrigated, control and reduced precipitation) and nutrients (low vs high availability).We found that higher bud albedo or shade delayed budburst (up to +12 d), indicating that temperature is sensed locally within each bud. Leaf senescence was delayed by high nutrient availability (up to +7 d) and shade conditions (up to +39 d) in all species, except oak. Autumn phenological responses to summer droughts depended on species, with a delay for cherry (+7 d) and an advance for beech (−7 d).The strong phenological effects of bud albedo and light exposure reveal an important role of microclimatic variation on phenology. In addition to the temperature and photoperiod effects, our results suggest a tight interplay between source and sink processes in regulating the end of the seasonal vegetation cycle, which can be largely influenced by resource availability (light, water and nutrients). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Spring phenology is advancing with warming but late spring freezes may not advance at the same rate, potentially leading to an increase in freezes after trees initiate budburst. Research suggests warming winters may delay budburst through reduced chilling, which may cause plants to leafout more slowly, thus decreasing spring freeze tolerance.Here, we assessed the effects of late spring freezes and reduced over‐winter chilling on sapling phenology, growth and tissue traits, across eight temperate tree and shrub species in a laboratory experiment.We found that spring freezes delayed leafout – extending the period of greatest risk for freeze damage – increased damage to the shoot apical meristem, and decreased leaf toughness and leaf thickness. Longer chilling accelerated budburst and leafout, even under spring freeze conditions. Thus, chilling compensated for the adverse effects of late spring freezes on phenology. Despite the effects of spring freezes and chilling on phenology, we did not see any major reordering in the sequence of species leafout.Our results suggest climate change may impact forest communities not through temporal reassembly, but rather through impacts on phenology and growth from the coupled effects of late spring freezes and decreased over‐winter chilling under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autumn senescence regulates multiple aspects of ecosystem function, along with associated feedbacks to the climate system. Despite its importance, current understanding of the drivers of senescence is limited, leading to a large spread in predictions of how the timing of senescence, and thus the length of the growing season, will change under future climate conditions. The most commonly held paradigm is that temperature and photoperiod are the primary controls, which suggests a future extension of the autumnal growing season as global temperatures rise. Here, using two decades of ground‐ and satellite‐based observations of temperate deciduous forest phenology, we show that the timing of autumn senescence is correlated with the timing of spring budburst across the entire eastern United States. On a year‐to‐year basis, an earlier/later spring was associated with an earlier/later autumn senescence, both for individual species and at a regional scale. We use the observed relationship to develop a novel model of autumn phenology. In contrast to current phenology models, this model predicts that the potential response of autumn phenology to future climate change is strongly limited by the impact of climate change on spring phenology. Current models of autumn phenology therefore may overpredict future increases in the length of the growing season, with subsequent impacts for modeling future CO₂ uptake and evapotranspiration.

ABSTRACT: This study identified physiological and biochemical changes in ‘Fuyu’ persimmon buds during dormancy. Branches were collected between March and August 2015. Dormancy was evaluated by biological testing of isolated node cuttings at 25 °C and a photoperiod of 16 h. The variables analyzed were water content; reducing sugar content; respiratory activity; activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), guaiacol peroxidase (POD) and polyphenol oxidase (PPO) enzymes; hydrogen peroxide content (H2O2) and lipid peroxidation. At the end of March 2015, the plants were already dormant, and the leaves and fruits present indicated a paradormancy effect. Induction of endodormancy may have occurred in June 2015, when chilling hours (CH) below 7.2 °C and higher CH below 12 °C began to accumulate, which coincided with the period in which there was a decrease in water content and respiratory activity, an increase in reducing sugars, a decrease in SOD, CAT, APX and PPO and an increase in H2O2. After an accumulation of 553 CH below 12 °C, the budburst capacity increased, and the buds presented increased water content, decreased reducing sugars content, increased respiratory activity, low activity in SOD, CAT, APX and POD and high levels of H2O2.

ABSTRACT: This study quantified the chilling requirements for the induction and overcoming of endodormancy (chilling-controlled physiological dormancy) of grapevines buds. Cuttings of the cultivars Chardonnay, Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon were collected in vineyards in Veranópolis-RS in the winter period of 2019 and 2020. The cuttings were kept at a constant temperature of 7.2 °C or daily cycles of 7.2/18 °C for 6/18 h, 12/12 h or 18/6 h, up to 600 chilling hours (CH). Every 50 CH, part of the cuttings from each treatment was transferred to a temperature of 25 °C for daily assessment of the budburst in the green tip stage. The cultivars had different chilling requirements for inducing and overcoming endodormancy, reaching a total of 150 CH for ‘Chardonnay’, 300 CH for ‘Merlot’ and 400 CH for ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’. Of these, 50 CH were required to induce endodormancy in cultivars Chardonnay and Merlot and 100 CH for cultivar Cabernet Sauvignon. Dormancy evolution did not differ between cultivars in response to thermal regimes, with a temperature of 18 °C inert to the accumulation of CH. Precocity and uniformity of budburst were higher after chilling requirements were met during endodormancy for each genotype.

The variability of grapevine phenological stages under climate change has been studied in many winegrowing regions, with many reporting an advancement of the major phenological stages, particularly flowering, veraison and harvest. This study aimed to compare these regional patterns to integrate our understanding of grapevine responses. Average daily January–March (JFM) mean temperatures were correlated with day of year budburst (DBUD) and average daily springtime March–May (MAM) maximum temperatures were correlated with day of year flowering (DFLO), day of year veraison (DVER) and day of year harvest (DHAR) for 17 vineyards and showed an advancement of the associated phenological stage with increased temperature for each index. There were significant differences between vineyard groups for the rate of advancement of DBUD, DVER and DHAR which suggests that the response of phenological stage to temperature is not linear and varies between cultivars. Only the interval between DBUD and DFLO showed a significant shortening as related to MAMMax, suggesting that the advancement of grape maturity as related to increasing springtime maximum temperature is largely due to the shortening of the DBUD to DFLO interval.

Summary: In seasonally cold climates, many woody plants tolerate chilling and freezing temperatures by ceasing growth, shedding leaves and entering dormancy. At the same time, transport within these plants often decreases as the vascular system exhibits reduced functionality. As spring growth requires water and nutrients, we ask the question: how much does bud, leaf and flower development depend on the vasculature in spring? In this review, we present what is known about leaf, flower and vascular phenology to sort out this question. In early stages of bud development, buds rely on internal resources and do not appear to require vascular support. The situation changes during organ expansion, after leaves and flowers reconnect to the stem vascular system. However, there are major gaps in our understanding of the timing of vascular development, especially regarding the phloem, as well as the synchronization among leaves, flowers, stem and root vasculature. We believe these gaps are mainly the outcome of research completed in silo and urge future work to take a more integrative approach. We highlight current challenges and propose future directions to make rapid progress on this important topic in upcoming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Over the last decades, spring leaf‐out of temperate and boreal trees has substantially advanced in response to global warming, affecting terrestrial biogeochemical fluxes and the Earth's climate system. However, it remains unclear whether leaf‐out will continue to advance with further warming because species' effective chilling temperatures, as well as the amount of chilling time required to break dormancy, are still largely unknown for most forest tree species.Here, we assessed the progress of winter dormancy and quantified the efficiency of different chilling temperatures in six dominant temperate European tree species by exposing 1170 twig cuttings to a range of temperatures from −2°C to 10°C for 1, 3, 6 or 12 wk.We found that freezing temperatures were most effective for half of the species or as effective as chilling temperatures up to 10°C, that is, leading to minimum thermal time to and maximum success of budburst. Interestingly, chilling duration had a much larger effect on dormancy release than absolute chilling temperature.Our experimental results challenge the common assumption that optimal chilling temperatures range c. 4–6°C, instead revealing strong sensitivity to a large range of temperatures. These findings are valuable for improving phenological models and predicting future spring phenology in a warming world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• May minimum temperature is the primary driver of budburst in boreal conifers. • P. mariana showed the highest response to warmer springs and P. glauca the lowest. • Precipitation's effect on budburst is limited when compared to temperature. • Changes in bud phenology may disrupt host-insect interactions. • Budburst timing correlates with latitude and ecological provinces. Budburst is a pivotal event in plant life, representing a crucial response to seasonal meteorological shifts. Boreal tree species exhibit species-specific phenologies, and the rate of phenological changes under warming conditions may differ among these species. In this study we aim to investigate the timing of budburst in three coniferous species [Balsam fir (Abies balsamea), black spruce (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca) (Pinaceae)]; identify the main drivers of budburst, its rate of advance and the spatiotemporal patterns of budburst in relation to climate across Canada using a time period of 1980–2021. The timing of budburst was observed at 2839 locations stretching from Alberta to Newfoundland. We developed response functions between budburst and climate (air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) and used the strongest correlations to test their effect on budburst using species, time and the ecoclimatic framework of Canadian ecoprovinces. We applied spatially constrained multivariate clustering and identified natural budburst clustering across Canada. We found a baseline difference of 17 days in the budburst of black spruce relative to that of balsam fir and white spruce. Mean minimum temperature of May was negatively correlated with budburst date. Black spruce advanced budburst at a rate of change per degree of temperature (−3.33 days °C−1), twice that of balsam fir and white spruce (−1.53 and −1.27 days °C−1, respectively). Cluster distribution of budburst timing matched well with the distribution of Canadian ecoprovinces. Budburst within the clusters followed clinal patterns in temperature across Canada. Mean minimum temperature in May is the main factor driving budburst in northern tree species. Under a warmer spring, we project an earlier budburst, with black spruce being the species expected to show the greatest rate of change. The identified clustering patterns did not vary with precipitation, which represents the primary longitudinal gradient across Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated moth larvae (Lepidoptera) developing in temperate forests in Central Europe shortly after the tree budburst (the "brumata-viridana complex"). Larvae were collected in southern Slovakia in May 2015 and May 2016 from young and mature trees of late flushing Quercus cerris L. and early flushing Q. pubescens Willd. Although Q. cerris yielded fewer species (40 species) than Q. pubescens (47 species), the rarefied number of species and the Chao index suggested a similar number of species on mature trees of both oak species. Both the total number of moth larvae in assemblages and the abundance of dominant species (pests) were significantly lower on Q. cerris than Q. pubescens. The results suggest the release of Q. cerris with delayed budburst from heavy infestations by folivorous moth larvae. Knowledge obtained can be applied in silvicultural and horticultural practices aimed to protect and maintain forest, fruit, and ornamental trees.

Climate change has become a topic of increasing significance in viticulture, severely challenged by this issue. Average global temperatures are increasing, but frost events, with a large variability depending on geographical locations, have been predicted to be a potential risk for grapevine cultivation. Grape cold hardiness encompasses both midwinter and spring frost hardiness, whereas the avoidance of spring frost damage due to late budbreak is crucial in cold resilience. Cold hardiness kinetics and budbreak phenology are closely related and affected by bud’s dormancy state. On the other hand, budbreak progress is also affected by temperatures during both winter and spring. Genetic control of bud phenology in grapevine is still largely undiscovered, but several studies have recently aimed at identifying the molecular drivers of cold hardiness loss and the mechanisms that control deacclimation and budbreak. A review of these related traits and their variability in different genotypes is proposed, possibly contributing to develop the sustainability of grapevine production as climate-related challenges rise.

Climate change has become a topic of increasing significance in viticulture, severely challenged by this issue. Average global temperatures are increasing, but frost events, with a large variability depending on geographical locations, have been predicted to be a potential risk for grapevine cultivation. Grape cold hardiness encompasses both midwinter and spring frost hardiness, whereas the avoidance of spring frost damage due to late budbreak is crucial in cold resilience. Cold hardiness kinetics and budbreak phenology are closely related and affected by bud's dormancy state. On the other hand, budbreak progress is also affected by temperatures during both winter and spring. Genetic control of bud phenology in grapevine is still largely undiscovered, but several studies have recently aimed at identifying the molecular drivers of cold hardiness loss and the mechanisms that control deacclimation and budbreak. A review of these related traits and their variability in different genotypes is proposed, possibly contributing to develop the sustainability of grapevine production as climate-related challenges rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses – affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod – shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early‐season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio‐temporal shifts from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf phenology is a major driver of ecosystem functioning in temperate forests and a robust indicator of climate change. Both the inter-annual and inter-population variability of leaf phenology have received much attention in the literature; in contrast, the within-population variability of leaf phenology has been far less studied. Beyond its impact on individual tree physiological processes, the within-population variability of leaf phenology can affect the estimation of the average budburst or leaf senescence dates at the population scale. Here, we monitored the progress of spring and autumn leaf phenology over 14 tree populations (9 tree species) in six European forests over the period of 2011 to 2018 (yielding 16 site-years of data for spring, 14 for autumn). We monitored 27 to 512 (with a median of 62) individuals per population. We quantified the within-population variability of leaf phenology as the standard deviation of the distribution of individual dates of budburst or leaf senescence (SDBBi and SDLSi, respectively). Given the natural variability of phenological dates occurring in our tree populations, we estimated from the data that a minimum sample size of 28 (resp. 23) individuals, are required to estimate SDBBi (resp. SDLSi) with a precision of 3 (resp. 7) days. The within-population of leaf senescence (average SDLSi = 8.5 days) was on average two times larger than for budburst (average SDBBi = 4.0 days). We evidenced that warmer temperature during the budburst period and a late average budburst date were associated with a lower SDBBi, as a result of a quicker spread of budburst in tree populations, with a strong species effect. Regarding autumn phenology, we observed that later senescence and warm temperatures during the senescence period were linked with a high SDLSi, with a strong species effect. The shares of variance explained by our models were modest suggesting that other factors likely influence the within-population variation in leaf phenology. For instance, a detailed analysis revealed that summer temperatures were negatively correlated with a lower SDLSi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kayseri is one of the oldest cities in the world with a history of 6000 years and has a long history of viniculture, famous for its vineyards and grapes. As a result of the fact that the province of Kayseri is the micro gene center of the vine, it has reached a very rich genetic diversity with both natural crosses and mutations over many years. However, in recent years, with the effect of environmental and social factors such as global climate changes, urbanization, and migration; the cultivation of local grape varieties of Kayseri is decreasing day by day. At this point, it is essential to identify and conserve local grapevine genetic resources, which are very valuable for breeding new varieties. This research was carried out in Yüceyar region of Kayseri province, and the phenological stages of budburst, full bloom and maturity of local grape genotypes detected in producer vineyards were examined for 2 years. According to the results of the research, it was determined that the phenological development periods change depending on the genetic structure of the genotype and ecological conditions. It has also been determined that pruning time and annual maintenance operations are effective on phenological stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the changes in shoot growth and spring phenology of Pinus koraiensis seedlings under climate change. In 2016, 2-year-old seedlings were planted and treated with increased temperature and decreased precipitation. Temperature was elevated by 3 °C using infrared heaters and V-shaped panels covered 30% of plot area to block precipitation. Occurrence of summer shoots was measured in October 2017 and 2018. Spring phenology was observed in 2018 and 2019. Occurrence rate of summer shoots under increased temperature rose by 37.8% in 2018 but dropped by 14.3% in 2019 compared to the control. Occurrence rate of summer shoots was positively and negatively correlated with summer temperature in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Spring phenology advanced by 8.8 days under increased temperature in 2018 and 2019. The number of chilling days (daily mean temperature < 0 °C) decreased by 44.1% and growing-degree days in spring with a 0 °C base temperature increased by 15.6% under increased temperature in both years. Budburst date under increased temperature advanced with rapid and early warm temperature accumulation. Summer shoot development might not affect timing of growth cessation or spring phenology in the following year. Decreased precipitation treatment did not influence the summer shoots or spring phenology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work was to perform preliminary assessment of the performance of different models for the simulation of three main phenology stages (budburst, flowering, and veraison) of grapevine in China. This work utilized observations from five representative wine regions (Changli, Laixi, Shangri-La, Xiaxian, and Yanqi) and four widely cultivated grape cultivars (Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc, Merlot, and Chardonnay) in China. The corresponding daily temperature data were used to simulate the timing of grape phenology stages based on the different phenological models. The dates based on the simulation and the actual dates were compared and the performance of these models were assessed for different cultivars and wine regions. The GDD10 model exhibited the best performance for budburst simulation in soil-burying regions, irrespective of the cultivar and location. For flowering and veraison, the optimal model varied in performance between cultivars and locations, and non-linear models exhibited better performance than linear models. In general, the performance of these models was better for the latter two stages than for budburst. The models with relatively good performance were selected for further calibration using these limited Chinese observations. The impact of soil-burying management on budburst simulation was also estimated. These results highlight the strengths of some phenological models for use in China. This study also reiterates the strong need for establishment of a grapevine phenology observation network in China to obtain more comprehensive data.

Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt‐out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg‐laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011–2019) of data on egg‐laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt‐out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont‐Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg‐laying date, while at high‐altitude snow melt‐out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg‐laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the consequences of climate change in Malus (apple) and Pyrus (pear) on four phenological stages: bud swelling (code 51 BBCH Monograph), budburst (code 53), beginning of flowering (code 61), and end of flowering (code 69) in the temperate-continental climate of southern Romania. The hypothesis tested is how much the onset dates (TOD) of phenology stages moved earlier due to climate change. Weather and phenological data were collected from 1969 to 2018 and were statistically processed. There was an increase in air temperature (T) during the first 5 months in the year, with a significant rise in March and April; significant linear relationships show an advance in TOD with the years elapsed. Inverse linear relationships were found between TOD, maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean), minimum (Tmin) temperature, and sunshine hours (Sh). The relationships between TOD and Tmax were the strongest. The early stages of flowering phenology are advancing more strongly than later flowering stages. For apple, in the last 50 years, there was an advance of 13.8 days for stage 51, 14.8 days for stage 53, 10.7 days for stage 61, and only 7.3 days for stage 69; for pear trees, the advance was lower: 10 days for stage 51, 9 days for stage 53, 6.7 days for stage 61, and only 2.1 days for stage 69. These findings, which might be extrapolated to similar environments, have important consequences in fruit growing, like the occurrence of climate accidents due to late frost, insect pollination, and application of pesticides and irrigation water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering phenology; however, the magnitude of this change varies among taxa. Compared with phenological mismatch between plants and herbivores, synchronization due to climate has been less explored, despite its potential implications for trophic interactions. The earlier budburst induced by defoliation is a phenological strategy for plants against herbivores. Here, we tested whether warming can counteract defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony. We compared the larval phenology of spruce budworm and budburst in balsam fir, black spruce, and white spruce saplings subjected to defoliation in a controlled environment at temperatures of 12, 17, and 22°C. Budburst in defoliated saplings occurred 6–24 days earlier than in the controls, thus mismatching needle development from larval feeding. This mismatch decreased to only 3–7 days, however, when temperatures warmed by 5 and 10°C, leading to a resynchronization of the host with spruce budworm larvae. The increasing synchrony under warming counteracts the defoliation‐induced mismatch, disrupting trophic interactions and energy flow between forest ecosystem and insect populations. Our results suggest that the predicted warming may improve food quality and provide better growth conditions for larval development, thus promoting longer or more intense insect outbreaks in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological variation in spring leafing between and within species can determine plant responses to warmer winter and spring temperatures in the short term. Methods are needed for monitoring canopy development that can be replicated on a large-scale, while retaining fine-scale resolution at the level of individual trees. Citizen science has the potential to provide this, but a range of approaches exist in terms of the phenophase recorded (e.g. budburst or leaf expansion), how the phenophase is characterised (first events or intensity monitoring) and the portion of tree crown assessed and observation frequency. A comparison of spring budburst and leaf expansion of four tree species (Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur and Acer pseudoplatanus) was monitored in one woodland using (1) counts of expanded leaves on three crown sections, (2) percentage estimates of expanded leaves across the whole crown and (3) a greenness index from photography. Logistic growth models were applied to make comparisons. First-event dates were found to be misleading due to high variation in leaf development rates within and between species. Percentage estimates and counts produced similar estimates of leaf expansion timing and rate. The greenness index produced similar estimates of timing, but not rate, and was compromised by practicalities of photographing individual crowns in closed-canopy woodland. Citizen scientists could collect data across the period of spring leafing, with visual counts and/or estimates made every 3–4 days, subject to tests of reliability in pilot citizen science studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is a strongly felt reality in recent years in Algeria. The fruit trees crop is particularly exposed to the impact of this warming, especially apple trees. A comparative study has been realized between a chronological daily temperature series from 1980 to 2016, and phenological data series (budburst and flowering) from 2000 to 2016, regarding the apple tree variety of Golden Delicious in two zones of Northern Algeria, Sidi Lakhdar (town of Ain Defla, in an altitude of 211 m) and Benchicao (town of Médéa, in an altitude of 1133 m). Some contrasting tendencies according to sites and periods have been demonstrated: very significant warming at Sidi Lakhdar site in autumn and spring, in particular in October and April, disturbing thus the entrance of the buds in the endodormancy and ecodormancy. The result is a late action of the cold until February, which proved to be insufficient. However, no average warming has been demonstrated at the Benchicao site, where the temperatures between November and January were cold enough to satisfy the need of cold units and raise the endodormancy. It seems that the failure to fulfill the need of cold units at Sidi Lakhdar site has strongly affected the goodness of fit of the classic phenological models, confirming indirectly the existence of more complex physiological processes (not taken in consideration by models), which manifest themselves in limited zones such as Sidi Lakhdar site.

The scale of phenological research has expanded due to the digitization of herbarium specimens and volunteer based contributions. These data are status-based, representing the presence or absence of a specific phenophase. Modelling the progress of plant dormancy to growth and reproduction and back to dormancy requires estimating the transition dates from these status-based observations. There are several methods available for this ranging from statistical moments using the day of year to newly introduced methods using concepts from other fields. Comparing the proficiency of different estimators is difficult since true transition dates are rarely known. Here I use a recently released dataset of in-situ flowering observations of the perennial forb Echinacea angustifolia. In this dataset, due to high sampling frequency and unique physiology, the transition dates of onset, peak, and end of flowering are known to within 3 days. I used a Monte Carlo analysis to test eight different estimators across two scales using a range of sample sizes and proportion of flowering presence observations. I evaluated the estimators accuracy in predicting the onset, peak, and end of flowering at the population level, and predicting onset and end of flowering for individual plants. Overall, a method using a Weibull distribution performed the best for population level onset and end estimates, but other estimators may be more appropriate when there is a large amount of absence observations relative to presence observations. For individual estimates a method using the midway point between the first flower presence and most prior flower absence, within 7 days, is the best option as long as the restriction does not limit the final sample size. Otherwise, the Weibull method is adequate for individual estimates as well. These methods allow practitioners to effectively utilize the large amount of status-based phenological observations currently available.

The aim of this study was to assess the thermal requirements of the most important grapevine varieties in northwestern Spain to better understand the impact of climate change on their phenology. Different phenological models (GDD, GDD Triangular and UniFORC) were tested and validated to predict budburst and flowering dates of grapevines at the variety level using phenological observations collected from Treixadura, Godello, Loureira and Albariño between 2008 and 2019. The same modeling framework was assessed to obtain the most suitable model for this region. The parametrization of the models was carried out with the Phenological Modeling Platform (PMP) platform by means of an iterative optimization process. Phenological data for all four varieties were used to determine the best-fitted parameters for each variety and model type that best predicted budburst and flowering dates. A model calibration phase was conducted using each variety dataset independently, where the intermediate-fitted parameters for each model formulation were freely-adjusted. Afterwards, the parameter set combination of the model providing the highest performance for each variety was externally validated with the dataset of the other three varieties, which allowed us to establish one overall unique model for budburst and flowering for all varieties. Finally, the performance of this model was compared with the attained one while considering all varieties in one dataset (12 years × 4 varieties giving a total number of observations of 48). For both phenological stages, the results showed no considerable differences between the GDD and Triangular GDD models. The best parameters selected were those provided by the Treixadura GDD model for budburst (day of the year (t0) = 49 and base temperature (Tb) = 5) and those corresponding to the Godello model (t0 = 52 and Tb = 6) for flowering. The modeling approach employed allowed obtaining a global prediction model that can adequately predict budburst and flowering dates for all varieties.

The scale of phenological research has expanded due to the digitization of herbarium specimens and volunteer based contributions. These data are status-based, representing the presence or absence of a specific phenophase. Modelling the progress of plant dormancy to growth and reproduction and back to dormancy requires estimating the transition dates from these status-based observations. There are several methods available for this ranging from statistical moments using the day of year to newly introduced methods using concepts from other fields. Comparing the proficiency of different estimators is difficult since true transition dates are rarely known. Here I use a recently released dataset of in-situ flowering observations of the perennial forb Echinacea angustifolia. In this dataset, due to high sampling frequency and unique physiology, the transition dates of onset, peak, and end of flowering are known to within 3 days. I used a Monte Carlo analysis to test eight different estimators across two scales using a range of sample sizes and proportion of flowering presence observations. I evaluated the estimators accuracy in predicting the onset, peak, and end of flowering at the population level, and predicting onset and end of flowering for individual plants. Overall, a method using a Weibull distribution performed the best for population level onset and end estimates, but other estimators may be more appropriate when there is a large amount of absence observations relative to presence observations. For individual estimates a method using the midway point between the first flower presence and most prior flower absence, within 7 days, is the best option as long as the restriction does not limit the final sample size. Otherwise, the Weibull method is adequate for individual estimates as well. These methods allow practitioners to effectively utilize the large amount of status-based phenological observations currently available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]