1. Detecting the hot hand in amateur bowlers.
- Author
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Stellmack, Mark A., Byrne, Andrew J., Sheft, Stanley, Salovich, Nikita A., and Manbeck, Adrienne B.
- Subjects
ATHLETIC ability ,CONDITIONAL probability ,BOWLERS ,PROBABILITY theory ,SUCCESS - Abstract
The hot hand, often invoked in describing athletic performances, refers to the notion that the probability of success is conditional upon recent success or failure. The present paper describes a method of identifying hot-hand behavior in which data from amateur 10-pin bowlers were fit with a model containing dynamically varying probabilities of success and failure (hot-hand model) and one with fixed probabilities (stable model). Full-season data of 27 out of 40 bowlers were found to be better fit by the hot-hand model. Following success, different bowlers showed increased or decreased probability of success (hot-hand behavior or underperformance, respectively). Analysis of the two halves of each bowler's data indicated that the extent of hot-hand behavior or underperformance varied across the season. Overall, results suggest that the conditional probabilities that define performance can vary in an individual over time such that anticipation of hot-hand performance can be a reasonable expectation in certain circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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