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As an emerging economy, Turkey has experienced a significant structural transformation in the last twenty years. Within this period, Turkey has increased to the eleventh rank for international tourist arrivals in the world (UNWTO 2023). However, in recent years, there has been a rapid depreciation of the national currency, raising the question of how this affects the tourism trade. Using bilateral data and considering non-linearities, we investigate the exchange rate-tourism balance nexus for Turkey and its most tourist sender partners by applying ARDL and NARDL modelling. We find that (i) when the Turkish Lira (TL) appreciates, the tourism balance is positively affected in the German and UK models in the short-run and in the Russian and Netherlands models in the long-run; (ii) the depreciation of the TL, on the other hand, has a positive effect on the tourism balances for France and the UK in the short-run. Therefore, either the increase or decrease in the exchange rate (except for Russia in the short-run) affects the tourism balance insignificantly or positively. These findings imply that policymakers should focus more on country-specific tourism policies to attract more tourists to the country rather than on exchange rate policies to manage the tourism balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop a model on how military and trade alliances can impact defense spending. • Importance of trade and its balance with the leader influences defense spending. • The larger the leader's trade and surplus, the lower the minor partners' spending. Military spending was the main government expenditure until the 20th century, and it still represents a significant fraction of most governments' budgets. We develop a theoretical model to understand how both military and trade alliances with military leaders can impact defense spending. By increasing the costs of military aggression by a non-ally, an alliance reduces the probability of war and allows minor partners reducing their military spending in exchange for a stronger trade relationship with an alliance leader and a higher trading surplus for the latter. We test our hypotheses with data on 138 countries for 1996–2020. Our results show that the importance of the trade relationship and the trade balance with the military alliance leader is a significant driver of military spending. The greater the weight of trade with the military leader and the higher its trade surplus, the lower is the defense spending of the minor partner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the question of choice between regionalism and multilateralism in trade relations of Central Asia introduced by Pomfret (2005). Our study is motivated by a significant restoration of economic links between the former Soviet republics following Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the formation of new trade ties with Vietnam, Iran, and Serbia. Above all, there have been substantial commitments made by the three Central Asian republics of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan toward a multilateral system under the WTO rules. To this end, we apply a multi-region gravity model with interdependent trade flows using bilateral trade data of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to study the ex-ante effects of economic integration with various bilateral, plurilateral, and multilateral partners. Our findings indicate the existence of considerable gains if the aforementioned economies would ascend to the EAEU in comparison to integration with China or Iran. We also document the presence of shared economic links between Tajikistan, Central Asia, and Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of bilateral air connectivity on bilateral service trade flows. Our service trade data includes 'commercial', 'transport', 'travel', and 'government' services. We developed a reduced-form gravity-type model using the Chinese data. An instrument variable (IV) approach is adopted to address the endogeneity issue between bilateral air connectivity and the service trade variables. Our key results are: (a) increasing the number of direct routes can significantly promote bilateral service export and import trades; (b) the average route-level traffic density has only marginal positive effects; (c) improving air connectivity would enlarge China's overall service trade deficit, because the transport and travel services imports are promoted more than their exports; (d) The 'commercial' service exports can be stimulated more than the imports, making China achieve larger commercial service trade surplus by improving bilateral air connectivity. •Increasing the number of direct air routes significantly promotes bilateral service trades in China. •Improving air connectivity enlarges China's overall service trade deficit. •Enhancing bilateral air connectivity stimulates China's commercial service exports more than imports. •China's growing international air transport, facilitated by the Belt-and-Road Initiative, has had a substantial impact on bilateral service trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to explore the time-varying property of the link between Sino-US political relations and trade. The results indicate that the association of these two variables appears to be unstable. Sino-US political relations have positive and negative impacts on their bilateral trade, and the impact on Chinese imports is stronger than on its exports. In turn, Chinese imports from the US lead to political conflict, while Chinese exports promote peace. The interaction mechanism may originate from the expectations of the future trade environment caused by trade policy uncertainty. The interactions between Sino-US political relations and bilateral trade at different time points are also investigated. The results demonstrate that the link between these two variables is slightly different, depending on the specific status of the bilateral political relationship (friendly, neutral or hostile). Both China and the US should seek common interests to maintain a stable political relationship, and even with an increasing volume of bilateral trade, the risk of political conflicts should not be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In international economics, there has been a steady stream of innovations to explain patterns of trade between and among countries with emerging techniques. The most recent - Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator - corrects for a potential bias caused by the large proportion of zero observations in bilateral trade data. Alternatively, this study offers Machine Learning (ML) as an option, especially in the presence of finer data on bilateral trade patterns. Using monthly and HS-6-digit (product) level data, the study finds that the main advantage of PPML is its accuracy of forecasts in-sample, but feature selection is somewhat rigid due to the inclusion of a large number of pair-wise fixed effects. ML models have the advantage in selecting features when a long list of explanatory variables is to be considered. Model validation statistics such as MAE and RMSE favor ML methods, but PPML tends to yield higher goodness of fit. In the out-ofsample context, ML has better accuracy than PPML, and a one-step walk-forward ML approach further improves the accuracy of ML forecasts. While PPML has a rich research and application history, emerging ML techniques have sufficient room for improvement in their adaptation to economic analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We assemble a new database of exports at constant prices for 131 countries. • Export growth of decolonised countries negatively related to metropole trade share. • Metropolitan trade shares are significant for post-independence French Africa. • British colonies significant before and after independence. • Colonial trade policy and location were important drivers of the metropole effect. Decolonisation was one of the most important institutional transformations of the twentieth century. Recent work on the effect of decolonisation on bilateral trade has suggested that trade with the ex-metropolis declined significantly after independence. Due to problems related to data quality and coverage, however, there is still no consensus on whether the reduction of colonial dependence encouraged or impeded export growth. In this paper, we argue that metropolitan trade shares proxy for colonial monopsony. Using a new database of exports at constant prices for 131 countries and mean group estimators that control for a range of confounding factors, we find that trade shares with the metropole are negatively associated with export growth, with important differences across metropolitan nationalities and locations. We argue that the significance of the erosion of colonial trade ties for export growth following independence was contingent on the interaction of policy and location during the colonial period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global value chains (GVCs), the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's bilateral trade with Belt and Road countries (BRCs) is controversial. This study constructed a GVC accounting framework based on a multiregional input–output model, aiming to clarify the trends and transfer characteristics of the value added (VA) and the embodied carbon emissions (ECEs) in China–BRCs bilateral trade from 2000 to 2018 at the overall country, Belt and Road region (BRR), and typical country levels. The relevant results are threefold. (1) At the overall country level, the BRCs VA and ECEs imports and exports have shown overall increasing trends. (2) Most BRRs are net ECE exporters to China. Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia are the main ECEs destinations and sources. (3) In China–typical BRCs bilateral trade, China is a net ECEs exporter to most typical BRCs, and the net ECE transfers through route 1 (onefold value chain) are all positive, implying that route 1 can reduce ECEs in BRCs. These findings can help formulate policies and measures to reduce carbon emissions and provide a scientific basis for realizing the coordinated development of carbon emission reduction and economy in China and BRCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Normalization indicates that states have opened a new page in their bilateral relations, and while it does not cover some problematic areas in relations and does not offer a final solution, it serves to create a reasonable basis for dialogue. The concept of normalisation includes the capacity to transform not only the political but also the economic dimension of Turkish-Israeli relations. This article contends that before the normalisation process in the bilateral relationship, the economic and especially the commercial dimension of the relations remained at a certain level and maintained its strong position even during tense diplomatic and political periods. In this context, the article draws attention to the fact that the normalization of Israel-Turkey relations is an ongoing process and aims to indicate that despite the existence of some disagreements, the search for cooperation on specific issues of common interest may continue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkish-Israeli relations have been marked by constant fluctuations for over half a century, yet they have never ebbed so low as in the era under the AKP (Justice and Development Party). A closer look at Turkish-Israeli relations since their inception shows that despite vital security and economic interests shared by the two states, bilateral relations are largely shaped by ideational factors, namely the evolution of Turkish state identity. This article investigates both the material and ideational factors in Turkish-Israeli relations in three periods: during the Cold War; from 1990 to the rise of the AKP in 2002; and during the AKP era. After examining the trajectory of the relationship over decades, the article, while not denying the centrality of material factors, suggests that there is a strong correlation between the evolution of Turkish state identity and Ankara's relations with Israel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While Turkey was the first Muslim majority state to recognise Israel, bilateral relations underwent many ups and downs in subsequent decades, peaking in the 1990s and experiencing a sharp deterioration since the mid-2000s that culminated in the Mavi Marmara flotilla crisis of 2010. This article examines Turkish-Israeli relations in the 2010s, known as the 'lost decade', with a special emphasis on whether this period constitutes a continuation of the declining relations or a new link in the relations between the two states. Indeed, the hesitant reconciliation process that began in March 2022 with the return of ambassadors and a series of fence-mending steps was brought to an abrupt end in October 2023 as Ankara threw its full weight behind Hamas in its war against Israel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkey was the first Muslim state to recognise Israel in 1949. While Israeli-Turkish relations have been characterised by ups and downs, mainly due to the Palestinian issue, they reached an all-time low under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule. Yet, it was not until 2009 that bilateral relations started to deteriorate. Operation Cast Lead marked a turning point in bilateral relations, followed by a series of crisis: the 'One Minute crisis', the 'Lower Sofa crisis', and the Mavi Marmara flotilla crisis. With both sides' agreement to restore full diplomatic relations following Israel's President Isaac Herzog's visit to Turkey in March 2022, the normalisation process in bilateral relations gained pace, only to go into a swift decline yet again following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023. This article analyses the focal events and dynamics that led to the deterioration and normalisation of bilateral relations under the AKP's rule. It shows that in addition to the Palestinian issue, the AKP's foreign policy vision and both states' divergent security interests created a conducive environment for the deterioration of bilateral relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkish-Israeli relations, which achieved the level of strategic cooperation in the late 1990s, began to decline in the late 2000s, especially after Israel's 2008–9 Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. The existing literature enumerates several factors underlying the bilateral relationship but tends to overlook both states' perceived identities and self-images. Focusing on the identity factor, this article ascribes the deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations to the major changes in Turkey's state identity during the years of AKP rule. By way of substantiating this argument, the article provides a brief overview of the literature on the role of state identity in international relations before exploring four case studies that exemplify the influence of state identity on Turkish-Israeli relations: the bilateral military cooperation agreement (1996); Operation Cast Lead and the attendant 'Davos incident' (2008–9); the Mavi Marmara crisis (2010); and the 'Arab Spring' of the early 2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractPartnership is a typical “Flag” of China’s foreign relations, playing a significant role in promoting bilateral trade. This study examines the impact and mechanism of China’s partnerships on trade with empirical evidence, revealing that establishing a partnership increases bilateral trade by 25%; each level-up of the partnership will lead to a 6.8% increase in bilateral trade, with a dynamic impact lasting about five years. Partnership building mainly impacts bilateral trade through political interaction, bilateral investment, and cultural exchange between two countries, with cultural exchange playing a dominant role in the mechanism. Strengthening partnerships with Asia-Pacific, Latin America, African countries, low-income, and low trade size countries can create more potent bilateral trade effects. Furthermore, higher levels of partnership have an exemplary effect, bringing a positive spatial spillover effect on trade. This study affirms the significant role of partnership in foreign relations and trade, providing valuable insights to reduce trade risk and achieve high-quality development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the stochastic frontier gravity model is applied to analyze the trade potential between China and Nepal and the prospects of Lanzhou-Kathmandu South Asian rail-road freight trains (LKSARFT). Based on the statistical data, we test the Exports Efficiency (EE), Bilateral Trade Efficiency (BTE), Exports Trade Potential (ETP), Bilateral Trade Potential (BTP), Extended Exports Trade Potential (EETP), Extended Bilateral Trade Potential (EBTP), Improved Exports Trade Potential (IETP) and Improved Bilateral Trade Potential (IBTP) between China and Nepal, the following analysis results can be found: for the bilateral trade model, the bilateral non-efficiency factor decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing, bilateral trade increasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. For the exports model, the exports non-efficiency factor increasing at a rate of 0.004 with time increasing, exports trade decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. The BTE between China and Nepal increases when time changes, the EE from China to Nepal remains constant changing during the 18 years. The changing range of BTE is 0.002–0.05; the changing range of EE from China to Nepal is over 0.1, larger than the BTE. The BTE and EE ranking among the eight South Asian countries are ranking fifth and fourth during the 18 years. exports trade resistance from China to Nepal is larger than bilateral trade resistance; The import trade potential from Nepal to China is huge, the focus of bilateral trade between China and Nepal may be changed, there are more goods may be exported from Nepal to China, and China may become trade deficit when trading with Nepal. Then, the development bottlenecks of the LKSARFT are analyzed. Finally, we give policy directions to boost bilateral trade efficiency and tap the potential of bilateral trade between China and Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade. Design/methodology/approach: The authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Findings: The results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries. Research limitations/implications: One of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies. Practical implications: Removing trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of the oil price shocks. However, the asymmetric oil-macroeconomy relationship across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries puts oil-exporting countries in a more vulnerable position as they cannot rely on trade with oil-importing countries to reduce the negative impacts of lower oil prices on their growth. Therefore, it is crucial for oil-exporting countries to reassess their oil-dependent development plans and invest their oil revenues in non-oil sectors to diversity their economies and prepare for a future with reduced dependence on oil. Social implications: The recent technological advances, structural changes, and increasing energy efficiency suggest that major oil-importing countries will become less dependent on oil in near future. As a result, oil-exporting countries will also need to undergo structural changes in order to sustain their income level. These significant changes will have important social implications, particularly in the labor market, during the transition, for which preparation will be necessary. Originality/value: While the literature on the total impact of oil price shocks on either oil-exporting or oil-importing countries is rich, studies on their spillover impacts are limited. Recent research has shown that trade and migration can affect the impact of oil price shock on the economy in federated countries such as Canada. However, the trade effect on oil price shocks in the international level, where countries are subject to different regulations/restrictions and institutional variations, remains scarce. By considering the trade relationship between different groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, the authors aim to contribute to the literature of the global impacts of oil price shocks on the world economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores Russia's influence in Africa, which poses a significant challenge to the West. In recent years, Moscow has gained momentum on the continent, becoming a formidable rival to Western powers. It has formed strategic alliances with key African nations, solidifying its foothold. Many African countries now see Russia as an alternative to Western partners. To establish this influence, Moscow prioritises military and economic partnerships, offering trade, investments and security assistance in exchange for political support. The West has been slow to respond, either preoccupied with domestic issues or disengaged from Africa, allowing Russia to gain the upper hand. The implications of Russia's African influence are far-reaching, posing a significant challenge to Western interests. This situation could escalate geopolitical tensions and potentially lead to conflict with the West. We aim to explore Russia's motives and its impacts on African nations, shedding light on how they affect Western interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The integration of renewable rnergy sources (RESs) into the power grid involves operational challenges due to the inherent RES energy-production variability. Imbalances between actual power generation and scheduled production can lead to grid instability and revenue loss for RES operators and aggregators. To address this risk, in this paper, we introduce a mutually beneficial bilateral trading scheme between a RES and a DR aggregator to internally offset real-time energy imbalances before resorting to the flexibility market. We consider that the DR aggregator manages the energy demand of users, characterized by uncertainty in their participation in DR events and thus the actual provision of flexibility, subject to their offered monetary incentives. Given that the RES aggregator faces penalties according to dual pricing for positive or negative imbalances, we develop an optimization framework to achieve the required flexibility while addressing the trade-off between maximizing the profit of the RES and DR aggregators and appropriately incentivizing the users. By using appropriate parameterization of the solution, the achievable revenue for the imbalance offsetting can be shared between the RES and the DR aggregators while keeping users satisfied. Our analysis highlights the interdependencies of the demand–production energy imbalance on user characteristics and the RES and DR aggregator profits. Based on our results, we show that a win–win outcome (for the RES and DR aggregators and the users) is possible for a wide range of cases, and we provide guidelines so that such bilateral agreements between RES and DR aggregators could emerge in practical settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In international economics, there has been a steady stream of innovations to explain patterns of trade between and among countries with emerging techniques. The most recent - Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator -- corrects for a potential bias caused by the large proportion of zero observations in bilateral trade data. Alternatively, this study offers Machine Learning (ML) as an option, especially in the presence of finer data on bilateral trade patterns. Using monthly and HS-6-digit (product) level data, the study finds that the main advantage of PPML is its accuracy of forecasts in-sample, but feature selection is somewhat rigid due to the inclusion of a large number of pair-wise fixed effects. ML models have the advantage in selecting features when a long list of explanatory variables is to be considered. Model validation statistics such as MAE and RMSE favor ML methods, but PPML tends to yield higher goodness of fit. In the out-of-sample context, ML has better accuracy than PPML, and a one-step walk-forward ML approach further improves the accuracy of ML forecasts. While PPML has a rich research and application history, emerging ML techniques have sufficient room for improvement in their adaptation to economic analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is a prominent economic association of the African continent. SACU comprises five southern African countries: South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, and Eswatini. The overall value of India's trade with SACU increased from $1,477.52 million in 2001 to $1,0941.24 million in 2020, an almost sixfold increase. The export increased almost tenfold between 2001 and 2020, from US$ 343.49 million to US$ 3,760.94 million. In order to increase India's trade with SACU, the Indian-SACU PTA negotiations are now ongoing. This article examines India's export potential to SACU nations using the revealed comparative advantage index, the revealed import dependency index, and the Potential bilateral trade equation. The study shows India has trade potential with all SACU member states. Still, it has only utilised this potential with South Africa. India has not taken advantage of the vast potential of exporting its goods to SACU countries except South Africa. The trade intensity index indicates that India's export and import intensities with SACU have increased over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research builds upon theoretical assumptions regarding the relationship between openness to international trade and corruption. It seeks to answer the question of whether it matters for Africa with whom it trades. Specifically, our goal is to estimate and compare the impacts of Africa's trade with two key entities: the European Union (EU), its traditional primary trading partner whose share in Africa's bilateral trade has recently declined, and China, its emerging trading partner whose share in Africa's bilateral trade has been steadily increasing. This assessment will be focused on impacts on corruption. Our research utilizes a panel dataset comprising twenty-eight African countries for the period spanning from 2002 to 2016. We employ regression models including pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects, drawing upon data from the International Trade Centre, International Country Risk Guide, and the World Bank. Our findings suggest a weak but positive correlation between Africa's rising trade activity and corruption. However, this correlation is more pronounced in the case of trade with the EU, where the impact is estimated as positive, as opposed to trade with China, where it is estimated as negative. Additionally, while higher natural resources rents tend to have a negative impact on corruption in Africa, our results indicate that this is not the case of rents derived from trade with the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the effects of cultural, religious, and linguistic differences on bilateral trade. We conceptualize these differences as cultural distance, religious distance, religious denominations difference, language diversity, and linguistic distance. We collect trade data for more than 50 countries over ten consecutive years and build an augmented gravity model. The empirical analysis reveals that language diversity impedes trade, but variations in cultural distance and religiosity tend to facilitate bilateral trade. The findings suggest that cultural and religious dissimilarities between partners are not necessarily detrimental to international trade as some differences in culture and religiosity can promote international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper explores the empirical relationship between population age structure and bilateral trade. Design/methodology/approach: The author includes age structure in both log and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) formulations of the gravity equation of trade. The author studies relative age effects, using differences in the demographic structure of each country-pair. Findings: The author finds that a relatively larger share of population in working age increases bilateral exports. This is robust to various estimation models, as well as to changes in the method of specifying the demographic controls. Old-age shares have a negative, but less robustly estimated impact on trade. Estimating instead the balance of trade between trading partners produces similar results, with positive effects of age structure peaking later in working life. Practical implications: Global populations are poised to undergo a massive transition. Trade a crucial way that the demographic deficits of one country may be offset by the dividends of another as comparative advantages shift along with the size and strength of their underlying workforce. Originality/value: The author's work is among the first to quantify the effect of relative age structure between two countries and their bilateral trade flows. Focusing on the aggregate flows, relative age shares and PPML estimates of the trade relationship, this paper provides the most comprehensive picture to date on how age structure affects trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral trade flows, focusing on intermediate inputs across 161 countries from 1990 to 2016. We utilize the Eora global supply chain input-output tables to distinguish trade in intermediate inputs from gross trade. By adopting the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator, we find that ICT promotes bilateral and intermediate input trade by lowering trade costs. Notably, the similarity in ICT development between home and host countries is positively associated with bilateral intermediate input trade. Furthermore, the positive effects of ICT on bilateral intermediate input trade are stronger in labor-abundant countries than in capital-abundant countries. We also find that the positive relationship becomes more significant in low-income countries than in high-income ones. Labor-abundant and low-income countries are expected to experience an increase in intermediate input trade through ICT development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes intra‐Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) trade in services by establishing its determinants and exploring the role of trade facilitation on the same. The study relies on the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator of the gravity model on bilateral services trade data for total services and eight categories of services in 17 COMESA countries from 2005 to 2019. Results reveal that several factors determine intra‐COMESA services trade, the salient ones being GDP (exporter's and importer's), distance, contiguity, and time zone differences. Trading under a service‐specific trade agreement affects a few services: transport and other business services exports. The effect is positive for transport services and negative for other business services exports. Trade facilitation measures, especially broadband technologies, significantly improve services trade across various sectors. A key policy implication of our results is that service trade is more likely to grow through digital, information, and communication infrastructure development. Thus, policy should prioritize increasing access and usage of broadband technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This study examines the impact of regional economic integration (REI) on stock market linkages in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economic bloc. In this type of study, the BRICS framework is an appealing empirical case, given its uncommon characteristics. For example, BRICS member states come from remote geographic locations (Africa, Asia, Europe and South America) and have contrasting socioeconomic profiles. Design/methodology/approach – An empirical design is framed from the perspective of bilateral trade between South Africa and BRIC. The author accepts trade intensity as a proxy of regional economic integration and then examines the resulting effect on the stock market co-movement within BRIC. The study applies a two-step econometric procedure of the BEKK-MGARCH and panel data models. Findings – Overall, bilateral trade, as a proxy of economic inwctegration, is associated with an increase in stock market integration. This positive relationship is particularly observed during episodes of surplus trade, and more interestingly, was initiated three years after BRICS’ existence and continues to grow at an increasing rate. Practical implications – The study outcome should benefit international trade practitioners and global investors interested in portfolio diversification or concerned with risk spillovers. Originality/value – First, notwithstanding South Africa’s significant economic presence in the African continent, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to empirically evaluate the BRICS economic integration on their stock market linkages from the perspective of South Africa. The value of this contribution is that further work may investigate the bidirectional spillover impact conveyed by South Africa’s trade interactions within the juxtaposition of Africa and BRICS economies. Second, given that research on REI and stock market integration has historically concentrated on mature regional blocs of Europe, Asia, South and North America, the current study advances knowledge while correcting the prevailing literature imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains the circumstances where economic growth increases the likelihood of interstate war. Optimism created by high and sustained economic expansion permeates a state, increasing elite and mass optimism for the use of deadly force. Without relief, such unbridled sanguinity can lead states to war. However, other forces reduce the probability of war. Regional democracy, bilateral trade, and trade openness slow down the process where states go to war. This paper hypothesizes that key factors raise the temperature of disputes, increasing the likelihood of a political dispute combusting to war, while other attributes inhibit the process to war. Economic growth catalyzes such reactions, while regional and joint democracy impede the probability that a war sparks. This paper produces monadic and dyadic results demonstrating that economic growth increases the likelihood of war, while other factors such as interstate trade openness, bilateral trade, dyadic democracy, and regional democracy slow down the process of war, making war less likely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the optimality of allowing the designer to withhold or damage resources in Bayesian incentive compatible mechanisms for bilateral trade with independent private values. The following results hold when the buyer and the seller have discrete value distributions. Burning money or withholding the good from both traders never enhances welfare. Similarly, damaging the good for the buyer cannot increase welfare. By contrast, damaging the good for the seller may improve welfare. However, such welfare improvements are possible only if the damage hurts some lower valuation type of seller more severely than the highest valuation type. Results extend to the case of continuous value distributions under certain hypotheses regarding virtual values. Methods also apply to optimal Bayesian implementation for allocation problems. In the absence of property rights, damaging goods for any agent has negative welfare consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to eliminate an embedded data bias in testing the J-curve hypothesis in relevant literature. In all previous trade models about the J-curve, the bilateral trade balance (BTB) ratio, as the dependent variable, is generated and used based on total exports data, i.e. as total exports over total import. However, total exports are the sum of domestic exports and re-exports, and some countries also re-export to their partners. Furthermore, the dynamics and impacts of changing exchange rates on export volumes of domestically produced goods may differ from those on re-exported goods. Therefore, in this study, in testing the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, we, for the first time, re-define two new proposed forms of BTBs, namely, domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB and re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB, based on domestic exports and re-exports, respectively, for USA–Canada trade. The main finding shows that the numbers of industries that support the asymmetric J-curve concerning these two forms of BTBs are entirely different. While the J-curve is supported by domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 27 industries, it is supported by re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 38. This support is 22 for the total-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China seems to be replacing America as the powerbroker in the Middle East and the Gulf region while U.S.-ally Saudi Arabia seems to be switching sides. But while Riyadh prefers a non-liberal world order, such as the one China promises, Saudi economic interests remain aligned with America and the West, especially with signs indicating that China's economy, and therefore power, have peaked, and are unlikely to replace America's. Saudi Arabia's bilateral trade and investments with China might suggest that relations between the two sides are deepening, but a closer look shows that such ties remain transactional, and therefore non-durable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade among neighboring nations holds significant economic importance, influencing the socio-economic development of countries. India and Pakistan represent one of the most persistent conflicts in contemporary international relations. The continuation of this conflict poses significant challenges to the establishment and nurturing of robust economic ties between the two nations. Deep-rooted historical animosity between neighboring nations often adversely affects regional economic relations, leading to noticeable disruption and disparities in trade patterns. This study focuses on examining the impact of geopolitical dynamics on trade relations between India and Pakistan. Bilateral trade relations between the two countries have been examined in three distinct time periods: 1965–2011, 2011–2016, and 2016 onwards. The findings revealed that whenever there were hostile relations between the two countries, their trade relations were also adversely affected. Furthermore, it is recommended that emphasizing the importance of peaceful relations is crucial for fostering bilateral trade between the two countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, China and Russia decades have adopted accommodation, normalisation and convergence strategies that transformed their cooperation into a comprehensive strategic partnership. Despite having this strategic alignment, several issues still constrain their long-term relations, such as divergent views and assessment of the world order, imbalance in bilateral trade and investment, competition in their respective spheres of influence, Russians' fear of a Chinese immigrant onslaught, ideological cleavages, and asymmetrical power distribution between the two. This study explains the factors behind their convergence and divergences of interests and its implications for their future relations. While utilising content analysis as the research methodology this study hypothesizes that though the two are engaged in strategic and other partnerships, yet the structural differences will inhibit their long-term cordiality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Usually developing and transitional countries are characterised by foreign exchange and capital scarcities and hence resort to stringent trade and capital control policies. This might become counterproductive and provide incentives to the international traders and investors to go for corrupt practices. This paper investigates how do these tight policies might encourage illegal or hidden capital movements across borders. By presenting both a theoretical and an empirical analysis, where traders and investors rationally misreport to evade stringent trade and investment barriers, we first show that illegal capital outflow takes place through trade misreporting and interestingly, export and import misreporting are cointegrated. Secondly and more importantly illegal capital inflow might take place through overreporting of FDI values and illegal capital outflow and inflow are cointegrated too. Based on the thorough investigation of the BRICS – USA bilateral trade and FDI data, we propose that a less regulated trade and investment regime might benefit these countries more as tight and restrictive policies seem to be self-defeating. Our study comes up with policy conclusions that might minimise the cross-border illegal capital movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a 'Nash in Nash' framework within a computable general equilibrium model to determine the welfare maximizing set of bilateral trade agreements for countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Comparing these agreements to an agreement involving all countries/sectors, we find that welfare is always larger in the multilateral agreement. This is because several sectors are often excluded from the bilateral agreements, and not all countries would have a bilateral agreement with others. The sectors that are often excluded from the agreements are agriculture, as these sectors are often deemed 'sensitive' in negotiations and are protected by high initial tariffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few decades, China has become one of the most important foreign investment destinations and centers of economic development in Asia. China's growing economic clout and coercive measures lead to the following empirical puzzles: how has Taiwan perceived China's increasing military capabilities and economic influence? What are the major factors that facilitate or constrain the role of a government agency of a weaker state in addressing the economic power of a stronger one? More specifically, what has been the purpose of Taiwan's economic statecraft? Based on Taiwan's official statements, regional trade data, and newspaper coverage in Chinese and English, this study investigates both positive and negative evaluations of China-Taiwan trade from 2009 to 2021. From 2009 to 2016, President Ma Ying-jeou adopted a desecuritization strategy in normalizing bilateral trade with China, and he actively promoted greater liberalization of Taiwan's financial and service sectors for China's investment. From 2016 to 2021, President Tsai Ing-wen employed a securitization strategy in light of the risks of economic reliance on China's markets. The article proceeds as follows. First, it engages the current literature on economic statecraft, China-Taiwan relations, and Asian politics. Second, this study offers a framework of desecuritization and securitization of Taiwan's trade toward China, and it highlights how the political leaders in Taiwan attempt to find a balance between trade and security. Third, it provides in-depth case studies on how Taiwan executed desecuritization and securitization strategies. Finally, it concludes with some initial thoughts on the studies of comparative economic statecraft, and provides policy implications for countries in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Cochlear Implant (CI) surgery is an effective and feasible alternative to restore hearing in severe bilateral hearing loss. Materials and methods: This retrospective study estimated the prevalence of complications associated with CI surgeries done from April 1994 to March 2016. Results: About 1,236 surgeries were performed on 933 pediatric patients and 79 adults. The cause of the deafness was congenital (90.91%), idiopathic (8.30%), and meningitis (0.79%). No speech impairment was seen in eight (0.86%) children. There was a history of consanguinity in 60.02% of patients. Bilateral profound hearing impairment was common in 99.41% of patients. The previous CI was reported at 29.46%. Delayed milestones (13.39%) in children, hypertension (14.29%), and diabetes mellitus (15.18%) in adult patients were noted. Right, cochlear implantation (47.43%), left (31.42%) and bilateral implantation (21.15%) were done. There were 17 (1.68%) complications (major 08, minor, 09) in adults. Superficial wound infection occurred in four patients (median 28 days, range 3-358 days) after implantation resolved on treatment. There was no significant (p > 0.05) relationship between the presence of comorbidities and complications. Conclusion: Cochlear Implant is a safe procedure and the complications are within the acceptable limits. Clinical significance: The complication rate with cochlear implants is within an acceptable range. Infections remain the most common complication. The procedure is safe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The trade gravity model is modified to incorporate infrastructure quality differences between economies, and this points to asymmetric bilateral trade costs. • Asymmetric bilateral trade costs then impact bilateral trade balance positively (negatively) for economies with higher (lower) infrastructure quality. Post bilateral trade liberalization, the impact of infrastructure quality on bilateral trade balance is further accentuated. These effects are not detected consistently against potential confounders. • The research shows how infrastructure quality can affect trade outcomes and underscores the importance of developing infrastructure as economies liberalize to trade. It is difficult to establish the impact infrastructure has on trade balances due to confounding factors. Our empirical approach leverages on episodes of trade liberalization, interacting such episodes with infrastructure. Providing a simple extension to the gravity model, we find that infrastructure quality differences between trade partners result in trade imbalances, which liberalization then accentuates. For robustness checks, we interact the liberalization indicator against other confounding variables and do not find such consistent effects. We conclude that lack of quality infrastructure in developing economies contributes to larger trade deficits, and infrastructure development should be supported alongside trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does state ownership limit the liberalizing effects of the WTO? We examine the case of China, which is not only the largest exporting state but also lends active support to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that could distort global trade. Using data on import purchases disaggregated by ownership from 1993 to 2012, we analyze how WTO entry affects the commercial orientation of state-owned and private imports. We demonstrate that after WTO entry, tariff cuts have a larger effect on private compared to SOE trade. We then show that state ownership alone does not block the WTO's liberalizing effects. For most industries, SOEs and private firms are alike in their commercial orientation. However, where strategic goods targeted by industrial policy hold a large share of bilateral trade, lowering tariffs has no impact on SOE trade. These findings highlight the tensions between state-led economic models and global trade law premised upon market principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs the new panel data structural gravity approach to investigate the overarching effect of ICT on bilateral trade flows and economic growth, by using a panel of 65 Belt and Road initiative (BRI) countries. This comprises of twenty-seven (27) sub-Saharan African countries from the period 2000 to 2019. The empirical results indicate that greater access to ICT deepens bilateral export and growth among participating countries. Essentially, the results demonstrate a positive correlation between ICT growth and economic development in the BRI countries. Overall, the findings reveal that ICT and infrastructural growth have provided the East African Community (EAC) a lot of opportunities to boost intra-regional trade. However, the BRI countries need to invest more heavily in ICT infrastructure to foster a continuous and sustainable economic development paradigm within the enclave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the bilateral trade costs between Bangladesh and its leading trading partners before investigating the factors that influence Bangladesh's import costs, including the contribution of NTMs. To measure implied bilateral trade costs, we first deploy an inverse gravity equation. We then estimate the determinants of import trade costs at the HS 6-digit product level, applying PPML estimation techniques to a gravity model, using a unique new NTM database developed for the current study. Our results show that imports to Bangladesh are related in an expected way to common trade cost proxies and that NTMs negatively impact imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examined the asymmetric and symmetric effects of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the United States and Vietnam at the industry level by employing both ARDL and NARDL models. We found that (i) only symmetric real exchange rate is statistically significant in explaining the total trade balance between the US and Vietnam in the long-run at the 10% statistical significant level; (ii) the effect at the industry level is mixed and dependent on product category; and (iii) the asymmetric effects are found in both short-run and long-run in 29 industries which account for 69% of the total industry. These findings suggest that Vietnam could import more commodities with a high import weight such as agricultural products, cork and wood, textile fiber, chemicals, and machinery products to reduce the US's trade deficit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines intraregional bilateral trade in virtual water embedded in cereal flows between the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) states. A gravity model is employed to examine whether annual bilateral trade depends on differences in water endowments, but also includes socio-economic and political determinants that affect trade. There is evidence that the abundance of water resources in a country influences trade for a product that is water dependent. Thus, the adverse effect of water scarcity in a country may be ameliorated by encouraging exports of water-intensive cereal crops where water is in abundance and imported where water is scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brexit campaign was based on the idea that newly gained British sovereignty and flexibility in global trade governance would facilitate the quick negotiation of preferential trade agreements. We explore how long it may take for a state to negotiate bilateral preferential trade agreements to offset potential losses from International Organizations withdrawals. We address the question of 'timing', and discuss several mechanisms that delay or speed up the implementation of bilateral trade deals after exiting International Organizations. The empirical findings are based on quantitative data and models accounting for the likely simultaneous relationship between International Organizations exits and preferential trade agreements' formation. We show that leaving economic organisations significantly lowers the likelihood of subsequent preferential trade agreements ratification. This effect wears out after about 1 year. This research has crucial implications for our understanding of International Organizations, state benefits' stemming from their membership therein, bilateral trade deals, and international cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have used various datasets and methodologies to analyze the relationship between bilateral trade and income convergence among trading partners. However, most studies have not paid attention to the effect that income levels and nature of bilateral trade have on the speed of income convergence. In this paper, we argue that the income levels of trading partners and the nature of bilateral trade play important role in the relationship between bilateral trade and international income convergence. To account for the effect of income levels of trading partners, this paper presents an approach that explicitly accounts for bilateral trade among high-income (OECD) countries, bilateral trade between high-income and low-income (SSA) countries, and bilateral trade among low-income (SSA) countries. We also used total trade data for 25 OECD countries and 30 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2018 to avoid the potential bias for selecting certain countries based on arbitrary percentage of trade relationship. We used the 2SLS estimations technique to avoid endogeneity problems due to the nature of the dataset. The paper finds that the bilateral trade-income convergence relationship for OECD to SSA is the strongest. This result throws light on the claim that the nature of bilateral trade between high-income and low-income countries promotes one directional knowledge spillover from high-income to low-income countries which enables low-income countries to adopt new technologies and grow faster than their high-income counterparts. Also, bilateral trade among OECD countries, which mostly comprises of differentiated products, promotes descent income convergence among them. However, bilateral trade among SSA countries has the least effect on income convergence. Findings of the study have important implications for bilateral trade among low-income countries and between low income and high income countries. First, if SSA countries want to develop and catch up with their rich counterparts, they should continue to promote free trade with high income countries by dismantling remaining protection policies. Second, the African Continental Free Trade Area's (AfCFTA) efforts to boost the manufacturing sector through industrialization is in the right direction to promote the production of more differentiated products in Africa which will create growth in income for member countries as they trade more. Finally, there is the need for SSA countries to increase investment rates and improve human capital accumulation to enable them to accelerate the adoption of new technologies and grow faster than their high-income counterparts, while bridging the income gap between them through trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India and South Korea relationship has seen remarkable journey in the last three decades. Apart from rising political and economic weights of both the countries, India and South Korea have also emerged as important soft powers in the region. Their soft powers are based on their rich cultural and historical heritages, their democratic traditions and productions of world famous entertainment contents such as movies, dramas, music and so on. The awareness of the cultural connection between the two countries might have been less than expected but both the countries are indeed committed to reach out each other through these connections. Actually soft powers of both the countries are also useful in connecting them bilaterally as well as providing them access to the Southeast Asian countries. This paper tries to look at the role of soft powers of both the countries in their bilateral relations. When the small and middle powers of the region are forced by the US-China contests to work more on their hard powers and alliances/partnerships, the paper argues that a cooperative narrative may emerge in the region through the soft powers reach outs of India and South Korea and their attempts of agenda setting for the region. The paper would also try to explore trajectory of India-South Korea people-to-people connections and flag problems and prospects in the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Great attention has been paid to the bilateral economic relations between India, Vietnam, and South Korea; however, only scant research has focused on the prospects of triangular economic cooperation among the three countries. Given the advantage and demand for the cooperation of each party, there is significant potential for trilateral economic cooperation among South Korea, Vietnam, and India. In this paper, we discover the prospects for their triangular economic cooperation in three aspects. First, this study examines the potential for cooperation in production networks and supply chains between the three countries in the context of reconfiguring the global value chains (GVCs), with a focus on the leading role of South Korean multinational enterprises (MNEs). Second, the study explores trilateral cooperation in the digital economy and connectivity, focusing on how South Korea and India can collaborate on investment projects in Vietnam. Third, this study discusses the rationale and possibility of forming a regional trade agreement (RTA) between the three countries. South Korea, Vietnam, and India have extant bilateral trade agreements between two of the three countries; however, there is no regional integration among the three countries discussed in specific. Considering the bilateral relations and domestic and external factors, the paper reckons that an RTA for starters between the three countries would be mutually beneficial to each of the corresponding economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea (hereafter referred to as Korea) and India in 1973, their bilateral relationship has made significant progress. This year marks the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic partnership, which calls for a scholarly examination of the developments in Korea-India relations over the last five decades, and their future prospects. This special issue's introductory paper provides a concise overview of the evolution of Korea–India relationships and introduces the other papers in the issue, emphasizing their significance in understanding the trajectory of the relationships. The primary goal of this introductory paper is to make two contributions: First, it aims to enrich the existing literature on India–Korea relations; and second, it provides key insights for policymakers to strengthen India–Korea ties in a new global order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to estimate and analyze the value-added chains embedded in the bilateral-sectoral trade of intermediate and final goods included in the transactions: Texas-Mexico (TX-MX) and California-Mexico (CA-MX). For this purpose, the global interregional input-output matrices for TX-MX and CA-MX were constructed for 2013. The bilateral-sectoral trade balance shows that Texas (TX) and California (CA) specialize in exports of intermediate goods. In contrast, Mexico (MX) specializes in final goods, resulting in low export multipliers for the latter. MX maintains high dependence on intermediate goods from TX, CA, and third places, resulting in lower foreign exchange earnings per dollar exported. Finally, TX-MX has an energy-technology trade pattern, while CA-MX has a technology-energy trade pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 1956, Japan gained membership of the United Nations, marking a significant milestone in Japan's return to international society. In approximately five years since the San Francisco Peace Treaty took effect in April 1952, this had been a difficult diplomatic issue for the Australian government. This article examines how the Australian government dealt with this issue by focusing upon the intersection of Australia's policy towards Japan and Japan's status as a member of the emergent Afro‐Asian bloc. This article argues that Japan's engagement with the rest of the bloc was a rising factor in Canberra's consideration of Japan's place in the world, thereby helping revisit the orthodox historiography of Australia–Japan relations during the early Cold War era which often overemphasises rapid growth of bilateral trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]