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This paper estimates the welfare effects of service trade liberalization at the country-sector level. We build a panel dataset combining information on service trade restriction index and bilateral service trade flows for 45 countries and estimate the service trade elasticity for cross-country heterogeneity at short horizons. Findings suggest that countries with smaller service trade share have greater the service trade cost elasticity, and the service trade elasticity ranges from 0.11 to 12.61. Then, we develop the CP mode to quantify the welfare effects from service trade liberalization. This study finds a significant positive relationship between service trade and welfare. During the 2014 –2018 period, service trade liberalization improved global welfare by 1.01%. The empirical results indicate that service trade liberalization mainly improves welfare through productivity effect and scale effect, with the former effect having a greater impact than the latter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most literatures have studied the role of the Internet in promoting the country's foreign trade. However, when the difference in Internet level between the two countries becomes the focus, will it hinder bilateral trade? This paper attempts to investigate the hinder impact of the Internet gap between the two countries on bilateral export in the framework of gravity model. The goods export data during the period of 2005–2019 from the WTO and the method of Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) were used. It is found that the Internet gap between the two countries will hinder bilateral export by increasing the information trade costs. Lower Internet countries are more sensitive to the Internet gap in bilateral export. This paper also analyzes the impact mechanism, which provides the fresh evidence for related study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary determinants of business cycle synchronization among OECD countries and their interactions are examined using panel Granger causality tests, single-equation panel regressions, simultaneous equations model error component three-stage least squares (EC3SLS), and cross-sectional 3SLS econometric techniques. The sample spans the years 1990 through 2021. The results demonstrate the direct and indirect effects of the key macroeconomic variables on the synchronization of the business cycles of the sample economies, as well as the complementary and competing nature of these variables. The magnitude and significance of these macroeconomic factors in relation to the business cycle synchronization before and after the global financial crisis of 2009 are also examined in this study. Furthermore, the analysis supports the ex-post argument for entering the euro currency union. The study article contributes by providing direction for future empirical research on the sources and propagation mechanisms of international business cycle transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why has post-1992 Havana-Moscow trade been at a low level despite for several years the political relationship being cordial and the political will for trade to increase existing? The bilateral relationship since 1960 is examined using qualitative and quantitative analysis and a novel method: the use of the literature on the impact on trade of the colonisation and decolonisation processes. Resulting from Cuban economic dependence on the Soviet Union from 1960 to 1991. Despite the anti-colonial nature of revolutionary Cuba and the Soviet Union it is posited that connotations with a colonial trading relationship have 1) resulted in post-1992 Havana- Moscow trade displaying the general trends of the decolonisation process on trade between former colonies and metropoles, trade falls and does not increase; and 2) negated the political will for bilateral trade to increase. Subsequently, it is theorized that partial interconnectedness inadvertently emerged. An asymmetric bilateral relationship which politically can be conditioned by either country and is mutually beneficial, but economically the structures of economic colonialism and postcolonialism have unintentionally materialised. Therefore, these findings inform debates on legacies of the past, the post socialist space, the decolonisation process and bilateral trade and Havana and Moscow individually and in combination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration method to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Turkey-US trade, considering the third country effect. We estimated bilateral exports and imports of 10 industries between Turkey and the US, collected trade data between Turkey and the US and related exchange rate fluctuation indicators, and established economic models. The results show a two-way interaction effect of exchange rate fluctuations on bilateral trade. At the same time, we find that the third-country effect plays a vital role in Turkey-US trade, and changes in demand and supply from other countries indirectly impact bilateral trade. This study helps to understand the complexity and volatility of trade between Turkey and the US and provides reference for relevant economic policies. These insights help not only address challenges posed by exchange rate fluctuations and third-country effects but also promote stable and sustainable bilateral trade in an evolving global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A few East Asian newly industrialized countries that used to belong to the Global South not only have joined the Global North but also have organized their own production chains in specific industries. Given the imperialist and exploitative nature of global production chains established by the Global North, it should be questioned whether the production chains organized by the East Asian newly industrialized countries are free from the innate nature of production chains. This article adopts a multiregional input-output analysis to examine the bilateral trade relationship between Korea and Vietnam. It finds that the Korean economy has unequally captured the benefits from the bilateral trade with Vietnam in terms of the domestic value-added share and the spillover effect derived from the final demand for Vietnamese products in the textile and electronics industries. JEL Classification: F62, F63 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The India–US relationship has often been described as a defining partnership. But the nature of the friendship in actuality is yet to assume depth. Despite convergences at multiple levels, it falls short of a true strategic partnership or deep friendship. The India–US relationship is neither a trusted nor an assured economic or security partnership. It is often tested by the vagaries of real-time issues, especially involving other great powers. That is why, despite signing the civilian nuclear deal, foundational agreements, being members of the Quad and Indo-Pacific Economic Forum, and with the common objective of containing the rise of China, they are unable to work closely together on myriad bilateral, international and regional issues. There are differences over matters of primary interests and the type of partnership that each wants to establish. The United States was insensitive to Indian concerns in its abrupt drawdown from Afghanistan in 2021, sub-continental security threats emanating from the China–Pakistan axis and its continued military support to Pakistan. India's neutral stand (read in the United States as being pro-Russian) in the Ukraine crisis marked by its abstention from voting against Russia in the UN and purchase of Russian oil despite strong objections from the US-led Western camp are cases in point. We argue that India's US policy is a case of limited balancing dictated by compulsions and lacks depth. For rising India, a continued desire for strategic autonomy and multi-alignment—the post-non-alignment foreign policy principles—guides its foreign policy orientation. For Washington, a deeper relationship would imply India abandoning its visions of strategic autonomy and joining more formally in Washington's orbit. These core national objectives of the two countries limit the level of partnership they can forge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India–Japan relations over the last two decades have become a regionally and globally oriented 'strategic partnership' from a narrow bilateral relationship. A key factor driving this transformation has been the discourse of the Indo-Pacific regional construct. Considering the overwhelming space occupied by maritime affairs in the bilateral strategic agenda, describing contemporary India–Japan relations as an India–Japan Indo-Pacific Strategic Partnership is justified. The article attempts to provide an evolutionary account of the India–Japan Indo-Pacific strategic partnership. In doing so, it identifies four phases in the evolution of the partnership: conception, actualisation, consolidation, and resilience, corresponding to the evolution of the Indo-Pacific concept from a geographic idea to a strategic concept to a regional order framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on international trade of South Korea. Given the economic and diplomatic environment surrounding the Korean Peninsula, it is likely that shocks from geopolitical events exert a significant impact on international trade of Korea. To this end, we employ popular indices of geopolitical risk developed and the dataset for international trade of Korea during 1991–2020 is used for multiple regression analysis. Furthermore, exchange of goods with 10 major trading partners is also investigated. It is found that a rise in geopolitical tension leads to the reduction in international trade of Korea. In addition, the negative impact of geopolitical risk varies by trading partners, which largely depends on the relative weight of each country. The findings in this study offer a policy implication that balancing between economic cooperation and diplomatic tie is critical for international trade of Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of high‐dimensional fixed‐effects estimation has become customary with the estimation of gravity models of bilateral trade, migration, or commuting as outcome. However, fixed‐effects methods can be used without incidental‐parameter bias in a very small set of stochastic models. Alternatives to fixed‐effects estimation are iterative‐structural model estimation or linearizations of the structural model. Baier and Bergstrand deployed such a linearization. While easy to implement, the approach has drawbacks related to the approximation point and lack of observability of ingredients needed for the linearization. This compromises empirical work. The present paper provides a remedy to this problem by linearizing at the observed trade equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article theorizes and tests how different types of interstate conflict across borders affect trade between disputing parties and trade diversion with third parties. Building on theories of borders as institutions, we differentiate the effects of two types of international disputes – border disputes and escalated militarized disputes – and draw on 60 years of trade and conflict data to test the effects of these disputes on bilateral and third-party trade flows. We find that border disputes and militarized disputes each depress trade flows between the disputing countries. However, legal border disputes are associated with increased trade diversion with non-disputing countries, which may fully offset the forgone bilateral trade, whereas militarized disputes have the opposite effect. These results show that actors engaged in trade can offset bilateral trade losses from a border dispute by expanding trade with third parties not involved in the dispute, but the same cannot be said of offsetting the losses from militarized disputes. The fact that border disputes and militarized disputes have opposite effects on trade diversion highlights the importance of examining both the type of dispute and the type of trade flows that are affected when studying conflict and trade and evaluating the potentially pacifying incentives of international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess the competitive position of EU candidate countries and Eastern Partnership countries in trading fruit and vegetables in the Single European Market in 2009 and 2023. This paper presents the amount and balance of bilateral trade in fruit and vegetables between the EU and the countries considered. It also estimates their comparative advantages in the EU internal market. A mapping tool based on the Widodo scheme was used for that purpose. This study proved that most EU candidate countries and Eastern Partnership members increased their trade values and improved their competitive position in the Single European Market (SEM) over the analyzed period. The boosters of trade included the demand in EU member markets (stimulated by the evolving consumption patterns and the widespread adoption of healthy diet patterns), the population's purchasing power, and their willingness to buy diversified products. Turkey exported a considerable volume of fruit and vegetables to the EU and gained the strongest competitive position in the SEM. In this case, the growth of exports to the EU market was primarily driven by the production potential resulting from large agricultural land resources, climate conditions, and geographical proximity. It may be concluded that the comparative advantages gained by the analyzed countries provided a basis for a beneficial export specialization, which shows the continuous relevance of the classical theory in explaining the volume and structure of trade in agri-food products. When considering the factors determining competitiveness, it may also be stated that the neoclassical theory of factor endowment developed by Heckscher, Ohlin, and Samuelson supports the optimization of agri-food export specialization in the analyzed countries. It was also shown that bilateral trade policies and agreements are decisive in trade performance and the shaping of international competitive positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the general principal-agent framework in which the principal aims to implement his first-best action that is monotone in the unknown state. The principal privately selects a signal structure of the agent whose payoff depends on the principal's action, the state, and the privately known type. The agent privately observes the generated signal and reports it to the principal, who takes action. We show that by randomizing between two perfectly informative signal structures, the principal can elicit perfect information from the agent about the state and implement his first-best action regardless of the agent's type. As to the economic application, we consider the bilateral trade model with non-quasilinear preferences and private multi-dimensional information of the buyer, and show that the seller can extract full surplus by privately designing the buyer's signal structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: With the accelerating process of globalization, trade activities have had profound impacts on both the environment and economic development. Methods: This paper comprehensively evaluates the synergistic effect of bilateral trade on "pollution reduction" and "carbon mitigation," as well as "economic growth," utilizing panel data from China and RCEP countries spanning the period from 1997 to 2020. Results: The empirical results reveal that bilateral trade significantly propels economic growth in RCEP countries and exhibits a positive "pollution reduction" effect, whereas its "carbon reduction" effect remains uncertain. To delve into the underlying reasons for bilateral trade's failure to effectively mitigate carbon emissions, this paper undertakes a mechanism test along two opposing paths. Notably, the influence of bilateral trade on economic growth and "pollution reduction" in RCEP countries varies regionally. Specifically, bilateral trade is more efficacious in fostering economic growth in ASEAN countries. Additionally, bilateral trade enhances environmental quality in ASEAN countries, yet it deteriorates in non-ASEAN countries. Furthermore, this paper examines the intricate relationship between bilateral trade, economic growth, and "pollution reduction" through the application of the PVAR model. It concludes that optimizing environmental quality in RCEP countries is conducive to both local economic growth and bilateral trade. Conclusion: This study not only bears significant implications for understanding the complex interplay between economic growth, environmental quality, trade liberalization, and environmental policies, but also provides invaluable guidance for policy formulation and implementation aimed at achieving green transformation and fostering sustainable economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In real-world networks, community structures often appear as tightly connected clusters of nodes, with recent studies suggesting a hierarchical organization where larger groups subdivide into smaller ones across different levels. This hierarchical structure is particularly complex in trade networks, where actors typically belong to multiple communities due to diverse business relationships and contracts. To address this complexity, we present a novel algorithm for detecting hierarchical structures of overlapping communities in weighted networks, focusing on the interdependency between internal and external quality metrics for evaluating the detected communities. The proposed Graph Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (GHAC) approach utilizes maximal cliques as the basis units for hierarchical clustering. The algorithm measures dissimilarities between clusters using the minimal closed trail distance (CT−distance) and the size of maximal cliques within overlaps, capturing the density and connectivity of nodes. Through extensive experiments on synthetic networks with known ground truth, we demonstrate that the adjusted Silhouette index is the most reliable internal metric for determining the optimal cut in the dendrogram. Experimental results indicate that the GHAC method is competitive with widely used community detection techniques, particularly in networks with highly overlapping communities. The method effectively reveals the hierarchical structure of communities in weighted networks, as demonstrated by its application to the OECD weighted trade network, which describes the balanced trade value of bilateral trade relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines export impact of Pakistan's integration into Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on its export's performance. We apply Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on augmented gravity model to estimate trade data from the period before and after permanent membership with Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2017. The study aims to explore changes in exports volume and analyze the key mechanism through which Shanghai Cooperation Organization promotes exports. The study assesses that after integration which key exports sector such as agriculture or manufacturing sectors are affected more significantly. The initial findings suggest that SCO integration positively affect and provide access to Central Asian markets, leading to modest but noticeable promotion in exports promotion. In heterogeneity analysis we find that exports of Pakistan are more significant with low and middle-income level countries compared to higher-income level countries. Additionally, exports in the manufacturing sector benefited more than in the agriculture sector. The significant and positive findings of mechanism analysis indicate that the belt and road (B&R) initiative and bilateral trade agreements are the key factors to enhanced exports. The overall impact remains moderated by structural changes in Pakistan economy, such as poor infrastructure, deficiency in energy sector and limited trade relations with its neighbors India and Iran. The study concludes that although the SCO integration has positively promoted exports of Pakistan however, it requires to address domestic economic constraints and capitalize more effectively the benefits of SCO membership through regional cooperation mechanism. For more potential benefits in the region SCO needs to expand B&R connectivity, encourage more trade agreements, and adopt favorable environment to attract high income countries in the organization. The study provides the base for future research in depth analysis of long-term impact of SCO integration on Pakistan exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the impact of real exchange rate (RER) misalignment on the trade balance between the United States and China, accounting for the complexity of traded products. We employ two recent econometric techniques: the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate both long – and short-run dynamics, and the dynamic panel threshold model of Seo, M. H., and Y. Shin (2016. “Dynamic Panels with Threshold Effect and Endogeneity.” Journal of Econometrics 195 (2): 169–186) to uncover potential non-linearities and identify critical thresholds that could lead to a regime shift. Using highly disaggregated trade data at the HS 06-digit level, encompassing 913 products from 2004 to 2020, our findings reveal a negative impact of RER misalignment on the United States’ trade balance with China. However, this detrimental effect is significant only in industries dealing with less complex products. In contrast, industries handling highly complex products show a notably positive impact. Furthermore, our results suggest that industries can benefit from an undervalued exchange rate only when they have a relatively high level of product complexity. Additionally, heightened product complexity can mitigate any adverse effects overvaluation might have on the trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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International agricultural markets are an important part of the global food resource chain. Tapping into the potential of agricultural trade between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" (B&R) is conducive to safeguarding China's and the world's food security, but there is less literature on the potential of bilateral trade demand. This paper ranks the B&R countries according to the scale of imports and exports, and calculates the elasticity of demand for imports, the elasticity of substitution for exports, and, finally, the potential of elasticity of demand for trade between China and the major B&R countries. The results show that China's agricultural export potential to major B&R countries is ranked as follows: Indonesia, Thailand, Russia, Poland, Turkey, Vietnam, Malaysia, Ukraine, India, and Singapore. The major B&R countries are also ranked in terms of their export potential to China: Vietnam, India, Ukraine, Russia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Poland, Singapore, and Turkey. The findings of this paper provide a decision-making basis for promoting agricultural trade between China and B&R countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India, the world's leading rice exporter, banned the export of non-Basmati white rice, accounting for 25% of its total exports (or 10% of the global rice trade). The ban aims to ensure availability to domestic Indian consumers and reduce domestic market prices, impacting global rice market accessibility, consumers, and producers across twelve regions. The study utilized the global simulation model (GSIM) to analyze the effects of trade restrictions on industries. The model uses national product differentiation to assess trade policy changes at global, regional, or national scales. It examined importer and exporter effects on trade values, tariff revenues, exporter surplus, and importer surplus. It found that India's Voluntary Export Restraint (VER) ban on non-Basmati rice resulted in a higher local price and a negative global net welfare impact of USD 1.7 billion. The losses decreased to USD 1.4 billion when importing countries responded by reducing rice import tariffs by 25% and USD 1.1 billion when importing countries reduced tariffs by 75%. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council regions were most affected. The study also found minimal impact on consumer surplus in India due to inelastic rice demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research is to analyze the effect of information and communication technologies (ICT) on the bilateral trade flows of the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We use the method of generalized least squares (GLS) panel to correct for correlation and heteroskedasticity problems. We have employed the gravity model extended to ICT to examine the effects of key ICT indicators on bilateral exports and imports. The sample includes 44 African countries of the subcontinent, including 43 countries as partners (importers/exporters) and one reporter country (exporter/importer) and covers the period 2010 to 2019. The results show that access to mobile telephony and the internet, as well as the development of e-commerce, have a great potential for improving intra-African bilateral trade and that the effect of ICT is not unequivocal according to the category of flow considered. However, it emerges from these results that the development of ICT as it is today has not yet succeeded in overturning the argument of physical distance as a barrier to trade in sub-Saharan Africa. The key conclusion is that the establishment of better-quality ICT services and infrastructure is more critical to intra-African trade. African policymakers should accommodate sufficient support to establish the ICT infrastructure and expand ICT penetration by reducing the costs of communication, transactions and access to ICT.

We analyzed the relationship between economic variables, Amazon deforestation, and CO2 emissions in Brazil. We used a macroeconomic approach of a system of open economies (global vector autoregressive [GVAR]). We constructed the international economy using 34 countries, representing 77% of the world GDP and 80% of world CO2 emissions. GVAR allows us to simulate the world economy, capture spillover effects, incorporate the externality of gas emissions, treating Brazil as a small open economy, and including trade integration in the analysis. We found that domestic and external shocks affect Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions; the principal external shock is the Chinese one, followed by the European and the US shocks. China, directly and indirectly, affects CO2 emissions and deforestation in Brazil through two channels (exchange rates and policy rates). The estimates showed that Brazilian currency and commodity prices are relevant for deforestation, while industrial production is for gas emissions. Other results are that (i) the Brazilian economy affects CO2 emissions in Latin America (and the principal influence of China is on Asia), and (ii) the Chinese shock loses importance when using bilateral trade in 1999–2001, when China was not a fundamental trade partner of Brazil. Alternative model configurations demonstrate that soybean prices and Argentina influence Brazilian carbon emissions and Amazon deforestation. Specifically, soybean prices emerge as a major driver of carbon emissions. These results suggest that geography and trade integration matter to understanding Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions. Our estimates highlight the importance of government policies and international cooperation in curbing Amazon deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the intricate landscape of the global food system, a nuanced understanding of dynamic evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of food trade network is essential for advancing insights into the African food trade and maintaining the food security of Africa. This paper constructs a framework for analyzing the food trade network from a comparative perspective by comparing and analyzing the evolution of food trade networks in China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries. The development trend of food trade between China, Russia, the United States, the European Union, and African countries is relatively good. China, the United States, Russia, and the European Union export far more food to African countries than they import, and bilateral food trade plays an important role in alleviating food supply shortages in Africa. The food trade networks between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries exhibit a butterfly-shaped structure centered in Africa, and the overall intensity of bilateral trade linkages is gradually increasing. France has the greatest control over the food trade network between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries, and the influence of the United States on the food trade network between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries is increasing. China's independence in the food trade network between China, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and African countries is enhanced, but its control ability is limited. The impact of differences in total population, differences in food production, and geographical borders on the trade network between China, the United States, the European Union, and African countries tends to decrease, while the influence of differences in the proportion of agricultural employment, differences in the arable land available for food production, and institutional distance tends to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relative impacts of transport and information and communications technology (ICT) components of trade-related infrastructure on bilateral trade flows between Nigeria and its major trading partners. An augmented standard gravity model that featured variables for the transport infrastructure component and the ICT component was estimated using bilateral trade data on 22 major trading partners of Nigeria for the period 2005–2021. The panel instrumental variables technique, precisely pooled two-stage least squares technique leveraged on fixed and random effects models, was used for the analysis. The findings show that the two components of trade-related infrastructure, transportation and information and communication technology (ICT) have a significant impact on trade flows between Nigeria and its trading partners. In the exports model, the differential impact of the transport infrastructure component is higher than the ICT component, but the differential impact of the ICT component is greater in the imports model. This suggests that the efficient provision of both transport and ICT infrastructure facilitates trade, while the inefficient provision of either or both hinders it. Therefore, greater attention must be placed on improving both components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to analyze the current state and potential future opportunities for Bulgarian-Chinese trade in agri-food products. To accomplish the goal of the study various approaches are used. After presenting the dynamics of the bilateral agri-food trade over the last decade, the product structure and the top Bulgarian exported products, the comparative advantages vis-a-vis China have been identified. Then the trade complementarity of agri-food products between Bulgaria and China is analyzed. Finally, the untapped export potential of Bulgarian agricultural products on the Chinese market is explored. The paper argues that Bulgaria should better utilize the existing bilateral and multilateral mechanisms to enhance and diversify the trade cooperation on agricultural products with China which, given the complimentary export profiles of both countries, is highly mutually beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether and how export growth to China varies following shocks in bilateral political relations between China and six Southeast Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—between 2000 and 2019. High‐frequency news data is used to quantify bilateral political relations between each of the six countries and China. Then, a net cooperation index, plus separate indices of political cooperation and conflict, are placed in an augmented gravity model of trade situated in a vector autoregression framework alongside real exchange rate and industrial production variables to examine the short‐ (months) and long‐run (years) effects of shocks to bilateral political relations on each countryʼs exports growth to China. The results reveal that political relations with China played a role in Thailandʼs and Vietnamʼs exports growth to China but not in Indonesiaʼs, Malaysiaʼs, the Philippinesʼ and Singaporeʼs, and contribute new findings to the literature on politics and trade. Code and data for the analysis is available at: https://github.com/tradepolsrepository/tradepols.git. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the bootstrap rolling-window subsample Granger causality test from China, this study analyses the influence of technological progress (TP) on trade conflict (TC). The results show that TP can both promote and prevent TC. In 2012 and 2018, TP led to more trade conflicts between China and its trading partners. This result proves the "trade-loss effect", suggesting that TP in one country promotes TC by threatening other countries' income. However, TP had a negative influence on TC in 2021 and 2022. This finding is consistent with the "welfare effect", implying that TP can prevent TC by providing more high-quality and cheaper products for worldwide consumers. This study suggests that the government should adopt appropriate trade policies when encouraging TP to promote bilateral trade. Furthermore, firms should develop their own high-quality irreplaceable products through technological innovation to address TC risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Ice Silk Road (ISR) was put forward, its development prospect has become the focus of academic circles. To study the influence mechanism of 'fairness preference' on the trade cooperation of countries along the ISR, this paper constructs the trade cooperation network based on the bilateral trade data of countries along the ISR, establishes the theoretical model of network game based on Rabin model, and uses the simulation method to test the model. The results show that: (1) the sense of national cognitive fairness does have an impact on the trade cooperation of the ISR; (2) the 'eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth' strategy is not an advantage strategy in the trade cooperation of the ISR; (3) the most significant factor affecting the trade cooperation of countries along the ISR is the neighbor node in the trade network and the social public opinion pressure of cooperation in the network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7). Design/methodology/approach: The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows. Findings: The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada. Research limitations/implications: The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development. Originality/value: The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the design of optimal mechanisms when the designer is uncertain both about the form of information held by the agents and also about which equilibrium will be played. The guarantee of a mechanism is its worst performance across all information structures and equilibria. The potential of an information structure is its best performance across all mechanisms and equilibria. We formulate a pair of linear programs, one of which is a lower bound on the maximum guarantee across all mechanisms, and the other of which is an upper bound on the minimum potential across all information structures. In applications to public expenditure, bilateral trade, and optimal auctions, we use the bounding programs to characterize guarantee‐maximizing mechanisms and potential‐minimizing information structures and show that the max guarantee is equal to the min potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on bilateral trade using a modified gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) for 21 economies from 2003 to 2018. The analysis includes the yearly mean and standard deviation of EPUs to assess the effects of EPU levels and volatilities on trade values. Increased domestic EPU significantly reduces imports and total trade, while increased partner EPU decreases exports but increases imports. EPU volatility in both domestic and partner countries significantly reduces bilateral trade values. These findings suggest that countries turn to foreign markets to offset domestic demand decreases due to high EPU, except when EPU volatility is high, which negatively impacts all trade activities. The study emphasizes the need for stable, transparent, and rules-based policy frameworks to sustain global trade growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross‐border trade is critical to livelihoods and food security in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), but bribery remains one of the main barriers to economic growth in the region. Does corruption affect intra‐African trade? We address this issue by considering the bilateral trade among 48 sub‐Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018, which are subject to a high level of corruption. Using a gravity model, the results show that corruption has a positive impact on exports and a negative impact on imports of global, primary, and manufactured goods. However, the difference in the level of corruption between country pairs is negatively and significantly associated with intra‐African trade in manufactured goods. Therefore, to promote the corruption‐free environment needed to facilitate the African Free Trade Agreement, it is essential for policymakers in sub‐Saharan African countries to combat corruption to boost intra‐African trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rules of international air transportation services that apply to signatories' airlines are defined by air services agreements (ASAs). We assess the impact of bilateral ASAs on air transportation using an unique data set providing direct observations of bilateral air transport cost and time for a standardised good, for 1190 country‐pairs, between 2011 and 2015. Our results show that ASAs reduce transportation cost by 8% while they only impact transportation time for landlocked countries and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) members. Our estimates also reveal that bilateral trade decreases cost of transport, which highlights the role of backhauling in air transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the debate on whether membership of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organisation (GATT/WTO) promotes greater levels of international trade. A size‐adjusted measure of trade flows vis‐á‐vis absolute trade flows (the traditional dependent variable) is used. The size‐adjusted trade flows dependent variable reduces the importance of bilateral trade with larger countries yielding a greater balance between large and small trade partners and provides an opportunity to test the importance of membership of the GATT/WTO relative to the numerous regional trade agreements (RTAs) which have grown exponentially over the years. In keeping with the recent literature, a structural gravity model of trade framework is used with a Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator and high dimensional fixed effects. Furthermore, the data set consists of both international and intra‐national (domestic) trade flows. In the case of both approaches (size‐adjusted and absolute trade flows) the results are statistically significant and positive as regards the impact of GATT/WTO membership and RTAs on trade flows. Furthermore, the estimates resulting from size‐adjusted trade flows maintain the greater importance of GATT/WTO membership relative to RTAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerated melting of the Arctic ice leads to the navigation of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) linking Asia and Europe, shortening transport channel between China and the European Union (EU). This has a significant impact on the China-EU bilateral trade which is analyzed in the present study. We present a framework based on a general equilibrium model for analyzing the impact of the NSR on the trade and the economies of China and the EU. Different fuel cost scenarios, consisting of fuel prices and sailing speeds on ice, are also considered. Specifically, we measure the changes in shipping costs between China and the EU, brought about by NSR navigation. These are used as a basis to quantify changes in transport technology. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to predict the trade and economic impacts. The results show that the NSR can save 0.98% in shipping costs and generate an increase in the exports of China and the EU in the order of 14,986 and 8,228 million US dollars, respectively. Among these exports, the mining industry shows the fastest growth, while the electronics industry experiences the largest increase in trade volume. Our findings reveal the potential of the NSR as an alternative route and its positive impact on bilateral trade between China and the EU. The results can provide a basis for shipping companies and governments to make decisions regarding the use of Arctic routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) by assessing their impact on the economies of both the CEECs and China. By analyzing this connection, the paper seeks to gain insights into the economic dynamics and potential benefits derived from investment and trade activities between China and the countries in this region. The paper employs a regression model to examine the influence of foreign direct investment on trade with data from 2008 to 2022. The findings indicate that a one percentage point increase in China's OFDI corresponds to a 0.054 percent boost in bilateral trade between China and the 16 CEECs. In conclusion, the findings highlight a significant link between OFDI in CEECs and bilateral trade. OFDI opens up new trade opportunities and fosters economic growth in CEECs, thereby promoting the development of bilateral trade. Additionally, Chinese investment drives industrial upgrading and structural adjustments in CEECs, enhancing the competitiveness of bilateral trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of a minority language on international trade. Using the distance to Hunchun as an instrumental variable, and transaction-level customs data from 2000 to 2015, we investigate the causal impact of common Korean language on international trade between Chinese counties and South/North Korea. The results suggest that a 1% increase in the proportion of population speaking Korean will increase value share and transactions share in trade by 1.8% and 2.3%, respectively. These effects are more pronounced in trade with North Korea and in higher trade share regions. Furthermore, we show that the common Korean language exerts its influence through reducing communication barrier. The impact is mainly observed at the extensive margin rather than the intensive margin. These findings highlight the potential of leveraging minority languages to boost bilateral trade in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on panel data from 2000 to 2021 covering African 52 countries under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and utilizing a system generalized method of moments with instrumental variables, the study finds that China's financing has played a positive role in both export and import intensities of African countries with China. However, the impacts of different financing types on trade intensities vary by different country groups and periods. First, Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has a much bigger impact on both export intensity and import intensity, and aid has a much bigger impact on export intensity in resource-rich African countries than other countries. Second, Chinese OFDI has a much bigger impact on export intensity and aid has a much bigger impact on both export and import intensities in low-income African countries than other countries. Third, the regression results from different periods indicate that Chinese financing has enhanced the bidirectional trade relations between China and Africa since BRI launch. The study is conducive to the exploration of multinational corporations and foreign aid's role in trade relations and will help African countries use Chinese capital to promote bilateral cooperation and get rid of poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to analyze the scope and importance of the cooperation dynamics of Latin America's two largest economies, it is essential to observe their respective roles in the global scenario. To this end, it will be shown that under specific contexts there are nations that, despite their similarities, achieve a limited scope of cooperation. This paper will address the possible theoretical bases under the paradigms of realism, idealism and constructivism in order to understand the dynamics of the relationship between Mexico and Brazil, from its beginnings and consolidation as nations, analyze their convergences and contemporary challenges of trade balance and investments to end with the most relevant pending issues for both nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates with Japanese language proficiency (JLP) and business Japanese competence (BJC) employed in Japanese companies (JC) in Malaysia are considered an asset by their employers. However, to what extent are their JLP and BJC sufficient to function in JC is an under researched area and deserves further scrutiny. Therefore, the focus of this research is to identify JC employers’ JLP and BJC requirements of Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates in their Malaysian companies. This qualitative research via semi-structured one-to-one interviews with JC employers of selected companies in Malaysia investigated the requirements of JLP and BJC for Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates employed in JC. The findings revealed that JLP requirement is dependent on position and task whereas time management and business customs, Ho/Ren/So (Reporting / Contacting / Consulting) are considered as important BJC practices. Furthermore, speaking and listening in Japanese language is considered as crucial skills and the most challenging for Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates at JC to master. Incorporating Japanese business customs and workplace practices in Japanese language curriculum at higher education and increasing internship opportunities at JC would ensure Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates acquire the required JLP and BJC through their higher education. This research augurs well for the enhancement of Japanese language curriculum in higher education institutions in Malaysia as well as Japan-Malaysia bilateral trade to further strengthen Japanese companies’ presence in Malaysia and attract new Japanese investments with high level of JLP and BJC manpower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the jump risk contagion between the US and China during the financial crisis driven by COVID-19, and the impact of a series of determinants to detect the transmission mechanisms. Specifically, we employ the ARJI–GARCH model to capture jump behavior and apply the Clayton Copula to construct lower tail jump contagion. Furthermore, we conduct regression analysis on variables related to economic fundamentals and investor behavior to explore the fundamental or pure contagion hypotheses. Our results suggest an increased jump dependence during major catastrophic crises such as COVID-19, but it is closer to a memory-less process. Besides, bilateral trade, similarity in fundamentals and investor behavior are all important determinants, and pure contagion hypothesis exists between the Chinese and US stock markets during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pollution haven hypothesis is studied from a bilateral trade perspective in this study, taking the reference of two Asian giants, namely, India and China. For this purpose, trade in pollution-intensive industries is analysed using data collected from the United Nations Comtrade dataset based on Standard Industrial Trade Classification codes for 1992–2019. The analysis helps us argue that between the two, China's demand is more pollution-intensive and India is the major supplier of pollution-intensive products. From an environmental perspective, this implies that China seems to be gaining from trade, and India is becoming a pollution haven in its trade with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This study aims to investigate the regional impact of the sanctions imposed by the West on the Russian Federation. To this end, we used two samples to estimate the determinants of bilateral trade. The first dataset belongs to ex-Soviet countries between 1992 and 2019, and the second dataset expands it with bilateral trade data relating to China, Iran and Turkey. The results reveal that there are structural differences between the two samples regarding the determinants of the bilateral trade flows and sanctions that have spillover effects in the region. We also projected our findings to the recent events. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the canonical trade model with heterogeneous firms, love for variety and trade costs, and integrate it in the consumption CAPM model. This yields a structural gravity equation that includes an additional factor related to risk premia. Empirical evidence based on firm-level data confirms the importance of cross-sectional heterogeneity in risk and time-varying risk premia to shape bilateral trade flows. The structural gravity model augmented to account for fluctuations in risk premia offers a compelling explanation for trade collapses during abrupt economic downturns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade negotiators are confronted with the policy challenge of determining which non-tariff measures (NTMs) and products to focus on, particularly in the agriculture and food sectors, which face a prevalence of NTMs. Quantitative advice on the trade effects of different measures can inform one aspect of a negotiator's multifaceted prioritization process. Despite well-established methods for the quantification of trade policies at an aggregate bilateral trade level, the product-level literature suffers from a general misapplication of economic theory, leaving much of it divergent from microeconomic foundations. Furthermore, the literature generally makes compromises that inhibit the ability to draw useful insight on importer-specific policy variables like NTMs. In light of this gap in the literature, we propose an approach that leads to a proof-of-concept quantification methodology for bilateral product-level analysis, fulfiling a need in the body politic to defensibly identify trade effects of NTMs at a bilateral and product level. International grains markets are used as an example to demonstrate the proof-of-concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]