1. SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen testing in the healthcare sector: A clinical prediction model for identifying false negative results
- Author
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Christoph Kutschker, Johannes Leiner, Boris Rolinski, Vincent Pellissier, Sebastian König, Irit Nachtigall, Joerg Schubert, Andreas Bollmann, Julian Gebauer, Martin Wolz, Joerg Patzschke, Sven Hohenstein, Anja Prantz, Anne Nitsche, and Gerhard Hindricks
- Subjects
Health Care Sector ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 ,COI, Cut-Off-Index ,Health care ,PPV, Positive predictive value ,Medicine ,rapid antigen test ,Antigen testing ,COVID-19, Coronavirus disease 2019 ,HIS, Hospital information system ,RKI, Robert-Koch-Institute ,Area under the curve ,healthcare ,false negative ,General Medicine ,Prognosis ,PoC, Point-of-care ,ICU, Intensive care unit ,Infectious Diseases ,Rapid antigen test ,CRP, C-reactive protein ,CT, Computed tomography ,AST, Aspartate aminotransferase ,FIA, Fluorescence-immunoassays ,ML, Machine learning ,Microbiology (medical) ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,ROC, Receiver operating characteristic ,TN, True negative ,Sensitivity and Specificity ,Article ,WHO, World Health Organization ,Internal medicine ,Multicenter trial ,Humans ,NPV, Negative predictive value ,Retrospective Studies ,LDH, Lactate dehydrogenase ,SARS-CoV-2, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ,Models, Statistical ,business.industry ,SARS-CoV-2 ,RAT, Rapid antigen test ,COVID-19 ,prediction models ,Bayes Theorem ,BF, Bayes Factor ,RT-PCR, Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction ,Ct, Cycle threshold ,Missing data ,FN, False negative ,Standard F, Standard F COVID-19 Ag FIA (SD Biosensor Inc.) ,AUC, Receiver operating characteristic area under the curve ,PCR, Polymerase chain reaction ,business ,Predictive modelling - Abstract
Objectives SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests (RAT) provide fast identification of infectious patients when RT-PCR results are not immediately available. We aimed to develop a prediction model for identification of false negative (FN) RAT results. Methods In this multicenter trial, patients with documented paired results of RAT and RT-PCR between October 1st 2020 and January 31st 2021 were retrospectively analyzed regarding clinical findings. Variables included demographics, laboratory values and specific symptoms. Three different models were evaluated using Bayesian logistic regression. Results The initial dataset contained 4,076 patients. Overall sensitivity and specificity of RAT was 62.3% and 97.6%. 2,997 cases with negative RAT results (FN: 120; true negative: 2,877; reference: RT-PCR) underwent further evaluation after removal of cases with missing data. The best-performing model for predicting FN RAT results containing 10 variables yielded an area under the curve of 0.971. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for 0.09 as cut-off value (probability for FN RAT) were 0.85, 0.99, 0.7 and 0.99. Conclusion FN RAT results can be accurately identified through ten routinely available variables. Implementation of a prediction model in addition to RAT testing in clinical care can provide a decision guidance for initiating appropriate hygiene measures and therefore helps avoiding nosocomial infections., Graphical abstract Image, graphical abstract
- Published
- 2021