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Labour market shocks differ across countries and regions. One way the economy can adjust for adverse regional shocks to employment is by labour mobility. In this paper, we study the popula­tion response to regional labour market shocks via migration. We draw on the EU-LFS microdata in the EU-27 over the period 1995–2020 for the working-age population. The data allow us to per­form our analyses for the detailed NUTS2 level, as well as consider commuting-zones. We adopt an IV approach with an industry shift-share instrument and account for (potential) time lag in the migratory process by including an error-correction term. We find that in 10 years population movement of potential workers generally corrects for about 50% of a shock to regional employ­ment at the NUTS2 and commuting-zone level. This overall population elasticity, however, hides substantial differences in elasticities with women, individuals aged 25 to 44, foreign-born and higher educated individuals reporting higher population elasticities. In addition, our results are driven by Western European countries. The initial population response to employment shocks is insignificant in a sample of Eastern European countries. Also, the migratory response is found to be more delayed when a region is confronted with a negative shock to employment.

This document contains an extensive literature review of the state-of-the-art related to the research in UNTANGLED work packages (WPs) 3 to 6. The literature covered relates to (a)the impact of the three mega-trends of technological transformations, globalisation and demographic changes, and how they affect labour markets and social outcomes (WPs 3 to 5); and (b)literature related to building scenarios for Europe (WP 6). The document is divided into four sections. Each of the first three sections is concerned with the effect of these trends at the macro (WP3), meso (WP4) or micro (WP5_ societal level. The last section looks at scenario building (WP6). It is a living document in the sense that throughout the project additional sources will be added to keep the literature review up to date.

This document presents the conceptual framework guiding the UNTANGLED project and a glossary of key terms and concepts related to the topics that it covers. The framework considers definitions, measurement, available data, and indicators. This document also presents research protocols underpinning the quantitative and qualitative research carried out in the project. &nbsp

status: Published online

Grandparents at working-age spend a considerable amount of time taking care of their grandchildren. These time transfers might imply economic trade-offs regarding the participation in the labour market. Using an instrumental variable strategy and multiple waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate the causal effect of grandparenthood on the labour supply of working-age grandparents in ten European countries. In our preferred specification, we find a large negative impact of grandparenthood on the labour supply of women aged 55 to 64. This effect is particularly pronounced following the arrival of the first grandchild and for grandmothers who live in close distance to their offspring. It further operates at the extensive margin of labour supply, resulting in grandmothers leaving the labour market entirely. By contrast, male labour supply does not significantly adjust in response to grandparenthood. Our results imply a relevant trade-off between labour supply and grandchild care for European women of later working age.

In this 2019 MEDAM Assessment Report, we present insights from MEDAM research and policy dialogue since 2016 to explain how closer cooperation among EU member states and with countries of origin and transit can improve outcomes for all stakeholders. Crucially, short of establishing a new Iron Curtain on the EU’s external border or continuing to tolerate abuses, there is no way that either individual member states or the EU as a whole can insulate themselves from irregular migrants and asylum seekers. Yet, if crossing the EU border enabled all irregular migrants to remain in the EU for good, the integrity of EU visa and asylum policies would be undermined. Thus, close cooperation with countries of origin for the return and readmission of their citizens who have no right to remain in the EU is crucial. Still, it is typically not in the interest of countries of origin to limit the mobility of their citizens. Cooperation between the EU and countries of origin must therefore cover a wide enough range of policies to ensure that all parties consistently benefit from the policy package and have a strong incentive to meet their commitments. We emphasize more EU support for refugees hosted by low- and middle-income countries and more legal employment opportunities for non-EU citizens in the EU. Rethinking EU asylum and migration policies along these lines requires extensive consultations and negotiations among stakeholders in Europe and in countries of origin and transit. Our ‘insights’ are meant to inform and stimulate such conversations. However, sustainable reforms will come only as the result of stakeholders working out the details and developing a sense of ownership of the necessary reforms. Our first set of insights relates to popular attitudes toward immigration and the structure of public preferences for asylum and refugee protection policies (section 2 of this report). Next, we explain how the EU and countries of origin and transit can all benefit from cooperating on border management, refugee protection, and expanding legal labor migration to the EU (section 3). Finally, we consider the implications for cooperation among EU member states and the long-standing plans for reform of the European asylum system (section 4). MEDAM is funded by Stiftung Mercator. Chapter 1: Introduction – Chapter 2: Public attitudes to immigration and asylum policy preferences in the EU – Chapter 3: Cooperation with non-EU countries to manage migration to the EU – Chapter 4: Implementing flexible solidarity – Chapter 5: Conclusions

The new European Commission will inherit an impasse in efforts to reform the European asylum system as well as concerns about practices in the management of the EU's external border that contradict humanitarian standards and may even be illegal. While the number of asylum seekers who manage to reach EU territory is now lower than in previous years, it may be low precisely because of those problematic practices, including abuse of irregular migrants along the Western Balkan route, limited search and rescue capacity in the Central Mediterranean, and EU cooperation with the Libyan coast guard even though migrants returned by it to Libya have been abused. In this 2019 MEDAM Assessment Report, we present insights from MEDAM research and policy dialogue since 2016 to explain how closer cooperation among EU member states and with countries of origin and transit can improve outcomes for all stakeholders.

The EU faces major challenges in asylum and migration policy: reorganize the EU asylum system, secure the external border, curb irregular immigration through cooperation with African governments, and support developing countries that host large numbers of refugees from Syria and elsewhere. These challenges are inter-connected and require a comprehensive approach with broad support by all EU member states. However, member states are affected by immigration in substantially different ways and the political preferences of policy makers and voters also vary widely–necessitating implementable proposals to overcome the EU’s asylum and immigration impasse. In the '2018 MEDAM Assessment Report', we propose a comprehensive strategy for EU asylum and immigration policies that is both politically feasible and effective, based on the concept of flexible solidarity between EU member states. Die EU steht vor großen Herausforderungen in der Asyl- und Migrationspolitik: Reform des EU-Asylsystems, Sicherung der Außengrenzen, Begrenzung der irregulären Einwanderung durch die Zusammenarbeit mit afrikanischen Regierungen sowie Unterstützung von Entwicklungsländern mit einer großen Zahl an Flüchtlingen. Diese Herausforderungen sind miteinander verwoben und erfordern nicht nur einen ganzheitlichen Ansatz, sondern auch die breite Unterstützung aller EU-Mitgliedsstaaten. Dabei sind diese in unterschiedlicher Weise von Einwanderung betroffen, und auch die politischen Ansichten der Entscheidungsträger und Wähler unterscheiden sich erheblich. Es bedarf umsetzbarer Vorschläge, um den aktuellen „Stillstand“ in der Asyl-und Migrationspolitik der EU zu überwinden. Im "2018 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe" schlagen wir eine ganzheitliche Strategie für die EU-Asyl-und Migrationspolitik vor, die sowohl politisch machbar ist als auch auf dem Konzept der flexiblen Solidarität zwischen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten beruht.

How can the responsibility for refugees be distributed more fairly – globally and within the EU? And how can we curb irregular migration while expanding legal immigration to the benefit of all concerned? The large number of refugees and other migrants who have come to Europe over the last two years has caused the EU member states that received most of the asylum seekers, to reach their capacity limits. With a view to new arrivals and their long-term integration, it is now necessary to develop new and, above all, common strategies to address the migration flows to Europe. The '2017 MEDAM Assessment Report' focuses on two core Messages: - Distribute the responsibility for refugees more equitably. - Extending legal immigration from non-EU Member States into EU member states. Wie kann die Verantwortung für Flüchtlinge weltweit und in Europa gerechter verteilt werden? Und wie können wir irreguläre Einwanderung eindämmen und gleichzeitig die legale Einwanderung zum Nutzen aller Beteiligten fördern? Durch die große Zahl an Flüchtlingen und andere Migranten, die Europa in den vergangenen beiden Jahren erreicht haben, wurden insbesondere jene EU-Staaten, die die meisten Asylsuchenden aufgenommen haben, an ihre Kapazitätsgrenzen gebracht. Mit Blick auf weitere Neuankömmlinge und deren langfristige Integration ist es nun notwendig, neue und vor allem gemeinsame Strategien zur Bewältigung der Flüchtlingsströme nach Europa zu erarbeiten. Im Fokus des "2017 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe" stehen zwei Handlungsempfehlungen: - Die Verantwortung für Flüchtlinge weltweit und in Europa gerechter verteilen. - Die legale Einwanderung von außerhalb der EU in EU-Mitgliedstaaten erleichtern.

This Task Force report combines the most recent data from Eurostat with national sources to highlight the most significant labour mobility trends within the EU. Overall, the recent recession has not induced previously immobile workers to become more mobile, at least not in the larger member states. Mobility flows have moved away from crisis countries in response to the economic downturn but the desired increase in south-north mobility has not been observed so far. This leads the authors to conclude that successfully fostering mobility within EU15 countries requires tremendous effort. It is important that workers who are willing and able to move are not discouraged from doing so by unnecessary barriers to mobility. Improving the workings of the EURES system and its online job-matching platform; better cooperation of national employment agencies; streamlining the recognition of qualifications; and supporting language training within the EU are important contributions to labour mobility. The authors conclude that the EU is right to defend the free movement of workers. National governments should keep in mind that their ability to tap into an attractive foreign labour supply also hinges upon the perception of how mobile workers are treated in destination countries. If the political imperative requires regulations to be changed, such as the one guiding the coordination of social security, it is essential that no new mobility barriers are put in place.

This Working Document provides an estimate of China’s impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors’ empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries’ growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China’s WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China’s increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.

This Policy Brief argues that too much effort and political capital is being spent by the Commission and member states on being seen to be doing something quickly about youth unemployment when, in fact, the structural measures proposed will only have long-term effects. Expectations of immediate relief are running well above what can be delivered, especially at the EU level. Given the macroeconomic situation, no policy option will deliver a significant dent in either youth unemployment or unemployment in general. The EU policies on the table that are supposed to have an immediate effect, such as increased lending from the European Investment Bank to SMEs for the hiring of young people, will only have a very marginal impact on youth unemployment. Moreover, this impact will come mostly to the detriment of older unemployed persons excluded from such a scheme. Given the perceived need to ‘be seen to be doing something’, we fear that policies subsidising young workers de facto at the expense of older workers or, even worse, policies that subsidise older workers for not taking young people’s jobs, will proliferate. In fact, it is not at all clear that young people suffer more from being unemployed than older people, or even disproportionately more than older unemployed individuals. In particular, it is not clear that the much-publicised notion of a ‘lost generation’ with permanent ‘scars’ is relevant only to the young generation. The paper ends by highlighting the much-neglected policy option of encouraging labour mobility within the internal market. Although the Commission is ‘upgrading and modernising’ its tools, much more could be done in this area – to the benefit of the individuals concerned, the member states, and European integration in general.

We address the issue of endogenous expenditures in the context of a censored demand system by an augmented regression approach estimated with a two-step estimator. An application to food demand by urban households in Mozambique shows that accounting for endogeneity is potentially important in obtaining reliable point estimates of price and, in particular, expenditure elasticities. Furthfirmore, a bootstrap approach to obtain confidence intervals when data are clustered - as is the case with most household surveys - is devised. Based on a Monte Carlo exercise we speculate that previous studies in failing to account for the clustered nature of the data overstate the precision with which elasticities are estimated.

A nationwide household survey for Mozambique is used to estimate a large censored food demand system with 12 food groups for the sample of urban households. Using the translog indirect utility approach, the censored nature of the data is addressed by estimating a system of Tobit equations with a recently suggested quasi maximum likelihood estimator. Augmenting the system with demographic and geographical variables in a theoretically consistent way, I find that differences in elasticities between regions are significant. The results show that regional variation has to be taken into account when evaluating policies or employing CGE models. Further, the approach employed here can be applied to a number of developing countries with varying geographic conditions