Search

The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extreme heat, water scarcity, drought, forest fires and agriculture losses. Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would considerably reduce climate change impacts in Europe. Adaptation to climate change would further minimize unavoidable impacts in a cost-effective manner, with considerable co-benefits from nature-based solutions., JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport

Despite the importance of high mountains, little is known concerning the potential impacts of climate change in high altitude ecosystems. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess changes 1) in the spatial range of the alpine tundra domain (ATD), and 2) in elevational shifts of the treeline ecotone in Europe under scenarios of climate change. We used 11 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from EURO CORDEX [https://www.euro-cordex.net], disaggregated at the 1 km grid size, representing two RCP scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in three warming periods i.e. 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C and the 2050s (2036-2065). Findings of this study indicate a pronounced contraction of the ATD across regions, scenarios and periods. First, in the Alps, with a 1.5 °C warming it is projected that the ATD will lose an extent of around 31-36% with respect to the reference period (1981-2010). Comparable results were obtained using both scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the 3 °C warming period the extent of the ATD in the Alps is projected to be only 19% of the present extent. Second, in the Scandes, a contraction of the ATD of around 50% in the 1.5 °C warming period is projected in both scenarios. Then, in the 3 °C warming period most of the ATD is projected to disappear, with only 8% of ATD projected to persist. Lastly, in the Pyrenees the projections are worse than in the Alps and Scandes. The contraction of ATD is already projected above 74% in the 1.5 °C warming period in both scenarios. Then, in the 2 °C warming period only a marginal 4% of ATD is projected to persist, and virtually disappears in the 3 °C warming., JRC.D.1-Bio-economy

Forests are often perceived as being at the nexus of the solutions to the two main environmental crises that are plaguing our planet today: Climate change and biodiversity loss. The EU has conceived the European Green Deal with the specific purpose to mitigate both phenomena. The Biodiversity Strategy is a critical component to its implementation. In May 2020, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 (COM(2020) 380) was adopted. In the text, under section 2.2.5 (“Win-win solutions for energy generation”), there is reference to a report on the use of forest biomass for energy production by the end of 2020, and there is an accompanying Action of the EU Bioeconomy Strategy entitled “Assessment of the EU and global biomass supply and demand and related sustainability”. We have written this report in response. In this document we cover the whole value chain of woody biomass, from the primary wood production, to the processing and uses of wood; to its re-use and end of life. We first describe the data arena of woody biomass for bioenergy in the EU to address the question What are the available data sources about woody biomass for bioenergy in the EU and how can they be used for a harmonised EU-level assessment? Based on the data sources We then explain the situation in the forest-based sector in Europe, emphasising the interlinkages between the forest-sector industries and energy sectors. When highlighting the interactions between the forest-based industries and the energy sector, and consequentially both the resilience and the fragility of both, certain trends emerge. From the data we see that the overall reported uses of woody biomass are increasing. The second question we attempt to answer is: What are the trends in the different sources of woody biomass used for bioenergy purposes? Furthermore, when digging into the available statistics, it becomes evident that there are inconsistencies in the available data: There is a notable gap between reported uses and sources of woody biomass. Roundwood removals estimates derived from material and energy uses indicate significant underestimations in official removals data and the underestimated removals can be assigned to the energy sector. A follow-up question is therefore: Why are the quantities reported as sources for woody biomass in Europe far below the quantities of wood reported as being used in Europe? Natural disturbances followed by salvage loggings have dramatically increased in Central Europe from 2014 to 2018, bringing significant amounts of damaged wood on the market. The oversupply of damaged wood in the short term might distort the market by reducing wood prices and switching wood flows for energy. A fourth question we attempt to answer is: What are the implications of natural disturbances on wood supply? The fifth question we attempt to answer is: How can we ensure that forest management practices that are beneficial to the climate are also beneficial to biodiversity? We assess three management practices that are associated to the demand for wood for bioenergy. Through a deep literature review, we compare the impacts of the different management practices on both biodiversity and climate change and propose “win-win” management practices that contribute positively to both. We also identify “lose-lose” situations whereby damage is done both in terms of the climate and in terms of forest ecosystems. In this way we describe the field-level implications of management to get the wood on the market in the first place., JRC.D.1-Bio-economy

This report presents an ecosystem assessment covering the total land area of the EU as well as the EU marine regions. The assessment is carried out by Joint Research Centre, European Environment Agency, DG Environment, and the European Topic Centres on Biological Diversity and on Urban, Land and Soil Systems. This report constitutes a knowledge base which can support the evaluation of the 2020 biodiversity targets. It also provides a data foundation for future assessments and policy developments, in particular with respect to the ecosystem restoration agenda for the next decade (2020-2030). The report presents an analysis of the pressures and condition of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems using a single, comparable methodology based on European data on trends of pressures and condition relative to the policy baseline 2010. The following main conclusions are drawn: - Pressures on ecosystems exhibit different trends. - Land take, atmospheric emissions of air pollutants and critical loads of nitrogen are decreasing but the absolute values of all these pressures remain too high. - Impacts from climate change on ecosystems are increasing. - Invasive alien species of union concern are observed in all ecosystems, but their impact is particularly high in urban ecosystems and grasslands. - Pressures from overfishing activities and marine pollution are still high. - In the long term, air and freshwater quality is improving. - In forests and agroecosystems, which represent over 80% of the EU territory, there are improvements in structural condition indicators (biomass, deadwood, area under organic farming) relative to the baseline year 2010 but some key bio-indicators such as tree-crown defoliation continue to increase. This indicates that ecosystem condition is not improving. - Species-related indicators show no progress or further declines, particularly in agroecosystems. The analysis of trends in ecosystem services concluded that the current potential of ecosystems to deliver timber, protection against floods, crop pollination, and nature-based recreation is equal to or lower than the baseline value for 2010. At the same time, the demand for these services has significantly increased. A lowered potential in combination with a higher demand risks to further decrease the condition of ecosystems and their contribution to human well-being. Despite the wide coverage of environmental legislation in the EU, there are still large gaps in the legal protection of ecosystems. On land, 76% of the area of terrestrial ecosystems, mainly forests, agroecosystems and urban ecosystems, are excluded from a legal designation under the Bird and Habitat Directives. Freshwater and marine ecosystems are subject to specific protection measures under the Water Framework and Marine Strategy Framework Directives. The condition of ecosystems that are under legal designation is unfavourable. More efforts are needed to bend the curve of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation and to put ecosystems on a path to recovery. The progress that is made in certain areas such as pollution reduction, increasing air and water quality, increasing share of organic farming, the expansion of forests, and the efforts to maintain marine fish stocks at sustainable levels show that a persistent implementation of policies can be effective. These successes should encourage us to act now and to put forward an ambitious plan for the restoration of Europe’s ecosystems., JRC.D.3-Land Resources

The new EU Bioeconomy Strategy, adopted in 2018 is more relevant within the actual political, environmental and social context than ever before. In these times of acute awareness of global climate change impacts and related challenges for sustainable development, the EU Bioeconomy is perceived a crucial stepping stone to changing our whole development paradigm and to trigger systemic change. Bioeconomy is intended to contribute to the decarbonisation of our economy, to catalyse changes in consumer habits and will modernise our industries throughout the value chain. But is it all good? At what cost to primary productions systems? Can the bioeconomy really deliver on its promises while ensuring biodiversity enhancement and the improvement of our planet’s overall health? To what extent will societies benefit from a transition from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy? This document describes the first year of the development of the EU Bioeconomy Monitoring System by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) in collaboration with experts throughout European and International organisations, EU Member States, Commission Services and other stakeholders to assess questions such as those posed above. The framework is designed to house several basic indicators that are, analogous to the instruments of a symphony, in themselves useful and meaningful but whose value is enhanced once they are placed within an orchestra. Only when the indicators interplay jointly the ensemble is capable of estimating the progress of EU bioeconomy and its contribution towards the Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting related trade-offs and synergies. In this first year, the development of the monitoring system has focused on structuring the framework, thus creating a better understanding of the bioeconomy as it is presented in various sources at national, EU and international levels. Criteria have been established to assess indicator quality, which is relevant to the final decision on indicator inclusion. This document represents a status report on the development of the EU-wide monitoring system for the Bioeconomy and by no means does it constitute the finished work. Comments are always welcome, please write to: JRC-Bioeconomy-Monitoring@ec.europa.eu., JRC.D.1-Bio-economy

The study assesses how climate change could affect Europe in eleven impact areas. Under a high warming scenario, several climate impacts show a clear geographical north-south divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced under a 2ᵒC scenario., JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport

In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, forests are among the most complex systems and their interaction with the ongoing climate change – and the multifaceted chain of potential cascading consequences for European biodiversity, environment, society and economy – is not yet well understood. The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as a case study: a main European tree species often distributed in bioclimatically complex areas, spanning over various forest types and with multiple populations adapted to different conditions. The modular modelling architecture is based on relative distance similarity (RDS) estimates which link field observations with bioclimatic patterns, projecting their change under climate scenarios into the expected potential change of suitable habitat for tree species. Robust management of uncertainty is also examined. Both technical and interpretation core aspects are presented in an integrated overview. The semantics of the array of quantities under focus and the uneven sources of uncertainty at the continental scale are discussed (following the semantic array programming paradigm), with an effort to offer some minimal guidance on terminology, meaning and methodological limitations not only of the proposed approach, but also of the broad available literature – whose heterogeneity and partial ambiguity might potentially reverberate at the science-policy interface., JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Management

In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, forests are among the most complex systems and their interaction with the ongoing climate change – and the multifaceted chain of potential cascading consequences for European biodiversity, environment, society and economy – is not yet well understood. The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as a case study: a main European tree species often distributed in bioclimatically complex areas, spanning over various forest types and with multiple populations adapted to different conditions. The modular modelling architecture is based on relative distance similarity (RDS) estimates which link field observations with bioclimatic patterns, projecting their change under climate scenarios into the expected potential change of suitable habitat for tree species. Robust management of uncertainty is also examined. Both technical and interpretation core aspects are presented in an integrated overview. The semantics of the array of quantities under focus and the uneven sources of uncertainty at the continental scale are discussed (following the semantic array programming paradigm), with an effort to offer some minimal guidance on terminology, meaning and methodological limitations not only of the proposed approach, but also of the broad available literature – whose heterogeneity and partial ambiguity might potentially reverberate at the science-policy interface., JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Management

This report describes the main findings of Task 10, Mediterranean habitat loss, of the PESETA III project (Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Europe, focusing on Extremes, Adaptation and the 2030s). Using an approach that integrates results from 11 sectors, the main objective of the PESETA III project is to make a consistent multi-sectorial assessment of the projected impacts of climate change in Europe The Mediterranean region is one of the 36 global hotspots of biological diversity [1] and the most rich biodiversity region in Europe. Almost half of the plants and animals and more than half of the habitats listed in the EU Habitats Directive [2] occur in the Mediterranean region. However, this reservoir of biodiversity is threatened by climate-driven habitat loss, which is one of the most serious concerns for this region [3]. The aim of this study is first to assess projected changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate domain (MCD) in Europe and its conversion into arid domain (ACD) under scenarios of climate change, and second to assess Natura 2000 sites that will be affected by these changes. We used 11 bias-adjusted Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for two representative concentration pathways’ scenarios at +4.5 W/m2 (RCP4.5) and +8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5) for three periods: 2030s, 2° C warming and 2080s. Furthermore, we analysed adaptation options and its estimated economic cost in Mediterranean Natura 2000 protected areas., JRC.D.1-Bio-economy

Forests and other wooded lands cover around 42% of EU’s land area and provide a multiplicity of benefits supporting human wellbeing. These benefits are known as ecosystem services. In addition, forests provide economic, social and environmental values. Ensuring those values, as well as maintaining the ecosystem services provided by forests is only possible by implementing a sustainable forest management approach. Ensuring the multifunctional role of forests to supply provisioning services, such as timber, and at the same time provide regulating and cultural services is one of the aims of sustainable forest management. Nevertheless, most of the income in forestry is from timber production, whereas other non-marketed ecosystem services would require incentives for its provision, which would be oriented to satisfy increasing societal demands. Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) represents one alternative and voluntary way to secure financial sources for multifunctional and protective forest management and sustainable maintenance of ecosystem services. The aim of this report is to present an overview of PES implementation in forest ecosystems in Europe. A SWOT analysis is presented based in the analysis of first, policy drivers related with PES at the EU level, second literature review, and finally a comparison of best practices in PES. In the policy drivers section, we address the main EU policy documents, such as the Biodiversity Strategy, the EU Forest Strategy and other related with PES. Best practices from European countries are shown in the case studies of established and functional PES schemes. The SWOT analysis unveils challenges and potentialities for PES schemes development and implementation. The reviewed strategic and policy documents at EU level call for sustainability, development, cooperation and fostering of forest biodiversity. This opens new opportunities for creating and establishing suitable instruments and one of them is represented by PES schemes. The implementation process of PES schemes reveals some weaknesses and threats, for example the issue of sound valuation methods for ecosystem services. The report concludes by considering all aspects from the best practices identified in the case studies. Finally, despite the fact that PES are not a final solution to ensure sustainable forest management, it is possible to successfully implement PES schemes as part of policy instruments promoting the sustainable management or conservation of European forests., JRC.D.1-Bio-economy

The aim of this report is to illustrate by means of a series of case studies the implementation of mapping and assessment of forest ecosystem services in different contexts and geographical levels. Methodological aspects, data issues, approaches, limitations, gaps and further steps for improvement are analysed for providing good practices and decision making guidance. The EU initiative on Mapping and Assessment of the state of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES), with the support of all Member States, contributes to improve the knowledge on ecosystem services. MAES is one of the building-block initiatives supporting the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020., JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climate

In addition to the supply of wood, forests provide many services to humans in terms of climate regulation (e.g. carbon sequestration), air purification, recreation and tourism, fresh water supply, soil protection, habitat for biodiversity and many others. Options for recreation is one of the cultural services provided by forest ecosystems. Cultural forest services include the non-material outputs of forest ecosystems. These services are regarded as the physical settings, locations or situations that produce benefits in the physical, intellectual or spiritual state of people. Nevertheless, valuing non-market services, such as forest for recreation, is challenging without baseline robust and harmonised data. This study aims at designing and developing a database of studies on the recreational value of European forests for value transfer. The database will be populated by a literature review. This study was implemented as part of the traineeship 2014-IPR-H-000-2973 Recreational Value of Forests awarded to Paula Nieto Quintano., JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climate

Among the services provided by forest ecosystems, biomass is one of the most important. Nevertheless, spatially explicit data on forest biomass increment is rarely available for large regions. Thus the aim of this study is to develop a methodology for the spatial assessment of forest biomass increment at the pan­European level. To address this aim, we used MODIS GPP data (NASA Product MOD17A3) adjusted with GPP data derived from upscaling FLUXNET observations using the Model Tree Ensemble (MTE) technique (Jung et al., 2011) to derive a 1 km resolution woody biomass increment map. The map was validated using regional information from the most recent publicly available National Forest Inventories data of several European countries, highlighting a good agreement between estimated and observed data. The resulting map is a useful baseline for a number of applications dealing with potential supply of energy from forests in Europe, including mobilisation scenarios that consider current environmental, technical and social constraints., Proceedings of the 22nd European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 23-26 June 2014, Hamburg, Germany, pp. 41-46

In this study we propose a methodology for assessing forest vulnerability to insect pests at pan-European level. Two insect pests are used for testing and validating a methodology that could be extended to other forest insect pests. Our results highlight the strengths of the approach, facilitate information sharing with decision makers and discuss the limitations, including data availability of forests insect pests., JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climate

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten categories: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts (from eight of the impact categories) into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). If the 2080s climate would happen today and without public adaptation, the EU household welfare losses would amount to around €190 billion, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall EU damages are estimated to be due to additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP)., JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport

Action 5 of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 calls Member States to map and assess the state of ecosystems and their services in their national territory with the assistance of the European Commission. The objective of this discussion paper is to support the development of a coherent analytical framework to be applied by the EU and its Member States in order to ensure consistent approaches are used. In line with the Millennium Ecosystem assessment, the objective of the EU assessment is to provide a critical evaluation of the best available information for guiding decisions on complex public issues. It is therefore framed by a broad set of key policy questions. It is structured around a conceptual framework that links human societies and their well-being with the environment. More specifically, the paper proposes a typology of ecosystems to be assessed and mapped and the use of the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) developed for environmental accounting purposes., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

Forest ecosystems have a key role in the global carbon cycle and are considered large and persistent carbon sinks. The CO2 fixed by photosynthesis is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle, and forests play a determinant role in this process. Therefore, spatially explicit data and assessments of forest biomass and carbon is of paramount importance for the design and implementation of effective sustainable forest management options and forest related policies at the European level. The aim of this report is to present a summary of early results of the FOREST Action activities on forest biomass and carbon stock in Europe. In this report we present European-wide maps of forest biomass and carbon stock at IPCC Tier 1 level. Maps of forest biomass and carbon stock are relevant for quantifying terrestrial carbon storage and carbon sinks as well as for estimating potential emissions from land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation, reforestation), forest fragmentation and biotic (pests) and abiotic (e.g. forest fires, windstorms) disturbances. We describe the input data and approach, then present a summary examining the potential of the approach and further work as well as data needs in this field. The maps presented, implemented following the IPCC methodology, represent spatially explicit biomass and carbon stock on forested land disaggregated at 1 km x 1 km grid cells. The resulting maps represent the biomass and carbon at continental level, accounting for around 90% of the total continental amounts of biomass and carbon reported in the FAO’s Global Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) and State of Europe’s Forest report from the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forest in Europe (MCPFE). To account for regional discrepancies the maps were then adjusted to match FRA amounts of biomass and carbon at the country level. This report will be followed by an extended report including methodological details of the approach implemented., JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climate