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Abstract Background Households in areas of socio-economic deprivation are more likely to consume diets low in fruit and vegetables. Fresh Street is a place-based fruit and vegetable voucher scheme with vouchers redeemable with local independent (non-supermarket) vendors. Paper vouchers are offered to all households in a geographical area regardless of household type, size, or income with no requirement to demonstrate need. The regular shareable vouchers are combined with recipes and dietary information to increase exposure to healthy food prompts, reduce food insecurity, increase fruit and vegetable consumption, improve dietary quality, and support healthy dietary habits. This study aimed to inform a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess the impact of Fresh Street on a range of public health outcomes. Methods The pilot cluster RCT took place in three inner city areas of high socioeconomic deprivation in England (Tower Hamlets, Bradford, and Doncaster). New systems for managing vouchers and doorstep delivering weekly envelopes to households were developed. Weekly envelopes containing vouchers (5 x £1), a healthy seasonal recipe and brief nutritional information were offered to all households in nine intervention streets. Nine control streets received no intervention. Household surveys collected information on fruit and vegetable consumption, diet quality, and household characteristics. Results The household survey response rate was below the 50% target for progression to the main trial. Most local fruit and vegetable vendors accepted vouchers. Three quarters or more of households regularly accepted the envelopes. The scheme was well received by households, local vendors and local public health teams. Household uptake of the scheme was highest in Tower Hamlets (75%) and Bradford (83%). The mean weekly voucher redemption was highest in Tower Hamlets (£3.26) and Bradford (£2.82), where the scheme ran longest, and where vendors were nearby. Conclusions This was the first pilot RCT of a place-based, household voucher approach. The newly developed system for securely printing and redeeming the vouchers worked well and is potentially scalable. Future trials should consider alternative methods of assessing the impact on households and explore more efficient ways to deliver the intervention e.g. through collaborative working with local resources such as community centres.

Background and Aims: The co-existence of fatigue, pain and faecal incontinence in people with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is unknown. We aimed to determine the presence of and relationship between these symptoms and patients' desire for intervention., Methods: Adults with IBD in the UK, recruited from clinics, the national IBD-BioResource, a patient charity and social media sources, completed PROMIS validated patient-reported questionnaires to identify fatigue, pain and faecal incontinence, in addition to symptom severity and impact, disease activity, anxiety and depression questionnaires and questions about their desire for help with these symptoms. Statistical analysis used descriptive statistics to report presence of symptoms and Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated., Results: Of 8486 responses, 54% reported faecal incontinence, 24% reported fatigue, and 21% reported pain; 10% reported all three symptoms in the past 7 days. Only 29% reported none of these symptoms. Fatigue and pain were moderately correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.57); both fatigue and pain had a lower correlation with faecal incontinence (0.43 and 0.46 respectively). On a 0-10 scale for severity, participants scored fatigue highest, followed by incontinence then pain. For impact, participants scored incontinence highest, followed by fatigue then pain. 56% reported depression (27% with clinically relevant levels) and 49% reported anxiety (20% with clinically relevant levels); 23% had previously medically diagnosed mental health disorders. 56% of respondents "definitely" wanted help for fatigue; 53% for incontinence; 42% for pain; 29% "definitely" wanted help with all three symptoms. Factors associated with all three symptoms were Crohn's disease (vs. ulcerative colitis), IBD activity, IBD Control score, anxiety, depression, and history of surgery (all p ≤ 0.0001)., Conclusions: Fatigue, pain and incontinence are common in IBD and patients desire help for these symptoms, currently a substantial unmet need. Anxiety and depression are common, are underdiagnosed, and are independently associated with these symptoms., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Ethics approval was received from North West - Greater Manchester West Research Ethics Committee (Reference no: 18/NW/0613) on 11th October 2018. Informed consent to participate was obtained from all participants either in writing (postal) or online before accessing the online version of the survey. The study conformed to the requirements of the Helsinki declaration and the principles of Good Clinical Practice (GCP). Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: Ailsa Hart: has served as consultant, advisory board member or speaker for AbbVie, Arena, Atlantic, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Falk, Galapogos, Lilly, Janssen, MSD, Napp Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Pharmacosmos, Shire and Takeda. She also serves on the Global Steering Committee for Genentech.Laura Miller: NoneFionn Cléirigh Büttner: None.Thomas Hamborg: NoneSonia Saxena: is an NIHR Senior investigator, funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research Grant Reference Number NIHR 204000 and NIHR Northwest London Applied Research CollaborationRichard Pollok: has served as consultant, advisory board member, speaker and/or received educational grants from Dr Falk, Pharmacosmos, Takeda, Janssen, Napp pharmaceuticals and Ferring pharmaceuticals.Imogen Stagg: NoneVari Wileman: NoneQasim Aziz: Funding as PI from Classado Biosciences Ltd; Takeda Pharmaceuticals and Dr Falk Pharma UK for commercial clinical trials. Wladyslawa Czuber-Dochan: Speaker fees from Dr Falk Pharma and research funding from Bristol Myers Squibb and Crohn’s and Colitis UKLesley Dibley: funding to support research from Takeda, Janssen; speaker fees from Abbvie, Janssen and WedMD. BRUK advisory board. Borislava Mihaylova: None Rona Moss-Morris: NoneChris Roukas: NoneChristine Norton: Speaker fees from: Janssen, WebMD, Medscape, Merck Pharmaceutical; Tillotts Pharma UK. Pfizer advisory board., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Cardiovascular disease has declined but remains a major disease burden across developed countries., Objective: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy across United Kingdom population categories., Design: The cardiovascular disease microsimulation model, developed using Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data and the United Kingdom Biobank cohort, projected cardiovascular events, mortality, quality of life and healthcare costs using participant characteristics., Setting: United Kingdom primary health care., Participants: A total of 117,896 participants in 16 statin trials in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration; 501,854 United Kingdom Biobank participants by previous cardiovascular disease status, sex, age (40-49, 50-59 and 60-70 years), 10-year cardiovascular disease risk [QRISK ® 3 (%): < 5, 5-10, 10-15, 15-20 and ≥ 20] and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (< 3.4, 3.4-4.1 and ≥ 4.1 mmol/l); 20,122 United Kingdom Biobank and Whitehall II participants aged ≥ 70 years by previous cardiovascular disease status, sex and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (< 3.4, 3.4-4.1 and ≥ 4.1 mmol/l)., Interventions: Lifetime standard (35-45% low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction) or higher-intensity (≥ 45% reduction) statin., Main Outcome Measures: Quality-adjusted life-years and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained from the United Kingdom healthcare perspective., Data Sources: Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration and United Kingdom Biobank data informed risk equations. United Kingdom primary and hospital care data informed healthcare costs (2020-1 Great British pounds); £1.10 standard or £1.68 higher-intensity generic statin therapy per 28 tablets; and Health Survey for England data informed health-related quality of life. Meta-analyses of trials and cohort studies informed the effects of statin therapies on cardiovascular events, incident diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis., Results: Across categories of participants 40-70 years old, lifetime use of standard statin therapy resulted in undiscounted 0.20-1.09 quality-adjusted life-years gained per person, and higher-intensity statin therapy added a further 0.03-0.20 quality-adjusted life-years per person. Among participants aged ≥ 70 years, lifetime standard statin was estimated to increase quality-adjusted life-years by 0.24-0.70 and higher-intensity statin by a further 0.04-0.13 quality-adjusted life-years per person. Benefits were larger among participants at higher cardiovascular disease risk or with higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Standard statin therapy was cost-effective across all categories of people 40-70 years old, with incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained from £280 to £8530. Higher-intensity statin therapy was cost-effective at higher cardiovascular disease risk or higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Both standard and higher-intensity statin therapies appeared to be cost-effective for people aged ≥ 70 years, with an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained of under £3500 for standard and under £11,780 for higher-intensity statin. Standard or higher-intensity statin therapy was certain to be cost effective in the base-case analysis at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Statins remained cost-effective in sensitivity analyses., Limitations: The randomised evidence for effects of statin therapy is for about 5 years of treatment. There is limited randomised evidence of the effects of statin therapy in older people without previous cardiovascular disease., Conclusions: Based on the current evidence of the effects of statin therapy and modelled contemporary disease risks, low-cost statin therapy is cost-effective across all categories of men and women aged ≥ 40 years in the United Kingdom, with higher-intensity statin therapy cost-effective at higher cardiovascular disease risk or higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol., Future Work: Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration has ongoing studies of effects of statin therapy using individual participant data from randomised statin trials. Ongoing large randomised controlled trials are studying the effects of statin therapy in people ≥ 70 years old. Future economic analyses should integrate the emerging new evidence., Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/140/02) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 28, No. 79. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Background and Aims: People with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) often experience pain, fatigue and bowel incontinence and are at an increased risk of anxiety and depression. Our aim was to assess the impact of these symptoms on health-related quality of life (QoL) in IBD., Methods: In the IBD-BOOST survey, over 26,000 people with IBD across the UK were approached; 8486 participant-completed surveys were returned. Participants' QoL was measured using the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire and their QoL was calculated on a scale ranging from 1 (perfect health) to -0.594 (worst health). Item non-response was imputed. Stages of linear regression models assessed the associations of symptoms with QoL controlling for IBD type, socio-demographic characteristics, co-morbidities and, in further analysis, for IBD activity and IBD control., Results: The EQ-5D-5L questionnaire was fully completed by 8093 (95.4%) participants (mean age of 50 years [SD 15]; 49% with Crohn's disease). The mean QoL was 0.76 (SD 0.23). From the three IBD-related symptoms, pain was associated with the largest QoL decrement (-0.159), followed by fatigue (-0.140) and bowel incontinence (-0.048). Co-occurrence of pain and fatigue further reduced QoL. Clear graded associations were observed between symptom severity and QoL decrements (all trend p < 0.001). Depression and anxiety were also associated with significant QoL decrements (-0.102 and -0.110 for moderate-to-severe anxiety and moderately severe depression, respectively). Worse IBD control and higher IBD activity were associated with lower QoL., Conclusions: We report strong associations between symptoms of pain, fatigue, bowel incontinence, anxiety, depression, and their severity and reduced QoL in IBD. These estimates could inform future IBD management interventions., (© 2024 The Author(s). United European Gastroenterology Journal published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of United European Gastroenterology.)

Background: Antiplatelet therapy (APT) can substantially reduce the risk of further vascular events in individuals with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, knowledge regarding the extent and determinants of APT use is limited., Objectives: Estimate the extent and identify patient groups at risk of suboptimal APT use at different stages of the treatment pathway., Methods: Retrospective cohort study using linked NHS Scotland administrative data of all adults hospitalised for an acute ASCVD event (n=150 728) from 2009 to 2017. Proportions of patients initiating, adhering to, discontinuing and re-initiating APT were calculated overall and separately for myocardial infarction (MI), ischaemic stroke and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the contribution of patient characteristics in initiating and discontinuing APT., Results: Of patients hospitalised with ASCVD, 84% initiated APT: 94% following an MI, 83% following an ischaemic stroke and 68% following a PAD event. Characteristics associated with lower odds of initiation included female sex (22% less likely than men), age below 50 years or above 70 years (aged <50 years 26% less likely, and aged 70-79, 80-89 and ≥90 years 21%, 39% and 51% less likely, respectively, than those aged 60-69 years) and history of mental health-related hospitalisation (45% less likely). Of all APT-treated individuals, 22% discontinued treatment. Characteristics associated with discontinuation were similar to those related to non-initiation., Conclusions: APT use remains suboptimal for the secondary prevention of ASCVD, particularly among women and older patients, and following ischaemic stroke and PAD hospitalisations., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk increases with age. Statins reduce cardiovascular risk but their effects are less certain at older ages. We assessed the long-term effects and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy for older people in the contemporary UK population using a recent meta-analysis of randomised evidence of statin effects in older people and a new validated CVD model., Methods: The performance of the CVD microsimulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (CTTC) and UK Biobank cohort, was assessed among participants ≥70 years old at (re)surveys in UK Biobank and the Whitehall II studies. The model projected participants' cardiovascular risks, survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs (2021 UK£) with and without lifetime standard (35%-45% low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction) or higher intensity (≥45% reduction) statin therapy. CTTC individual participant data and other meta-analyses informed statins' effects on cardiovascular risks, incident diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis. Sensitivity of findings to smaller CVD risk reductions and to hypothetical further adverse effects with statins were assessed., Results: In categories of men and women ≥70 years old without (15,019) and with (5,103) prior CVD, lifetime use of a standard statin increased QALYs by 0.24-0.70 and a higher intensity statin by a further 0.04-0.13 QALYs per person. Statin therapies were cost-effective with an incremental cost per QALY gained below £3502/QALY for standard and below £11778/QALY for higher intensity therapy and with high probability of being cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, statins remained cost-effective although with larger uncertainty in cost-effectiveness among older people without prior CVD., Conclusions: Based on current evidence for the effects of statin therapy and modelling analysis, statin therapy improved health outcomes cost-effectively for men and women ≥70 years old., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AK reports research support from Abbott, Amgen, ASPEN, Bayer, Mylan, Novartis, Sanofi, Viatris; speaker fees from Novartis; and is a Data Safety Monitoring Board member for Kowa. JR reports funding from North East London Integrated Care Service. JA reports receiving a grant to their research institution from Novartis for the ORION 4 trial of inclisiran. JS reports receiving grants for his institution from Amgen, Bayer, BMS, MSD, Pfizer and Roche; consulting fees from FivepHusion, and is a chair (unpaid) of STAREE DSMB. CB reports research grants from Boehringer Ingelheim and Health Data Research UK and is a chair (unpaid) of a Data Safety Monitoring Board for Merck. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), introduced in Central London in April 2019, aims to enhance air quality and improve public health. The Children's Health in London and Luton (CHILL) study evaluates the impact of the ULEZ on children's health. This analysis focuses on the one-year impacts on the shift towards active travel to school., Methods: CHILL is a prospective parallel cohort study of ethnically diverse children, aged 6-9 years attending 84 primary schools within or with catchment areas encompassing London's ULEZ (intervention) and Luton (non-intervention area). Baseline (2018/19) and one-year follow-up (2019/20) data were collected at school visits from 1992 (58%) children who reported their mode of travel to school 'today' (day of assessment). Multilevel logistic regressions were performed to analyse associations between the introduction of the ULEZ and the likelihood of switching from inactive to active travel modes, and vice-versa. Interactions between intervention group status and pre-specified effect modifiers were also explored., Results: Among children who took inactive modes at baseline, 42% of children in London and 20% of children in Luton switched to active modes. For children taking active modes at baseline, 5% of children in London and 21% of children in Luton switched to inactive modes. Relative to the children in Luton, children in London were more likely to have switched from inactive to active modes (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.21-10.92). Children in the intervention group were also less likely to switch from active to inactive modes (OR 0.11, 0.05-0.24). Moderator analyses showed that children living further from school were more likely to switch from inactive to active modes (OR 6.06,1.87-19.68) compared to those living closer (OR 1.43, 0.27-7.54)., Conclusions: Implementation of clean air zones can increase uptake of active travel to school and was particularly associated with more sustainable and active travel in children living further from school., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality have declined across developed economies and granular up-to-date cost-effectiveness evidence is required for treatments targeting large populations. To assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher intensity statin therapy in the contemporary UK population 40-70 years old., Methods: A cardiovascular disease microsimulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (117,896 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (501,854 participants; 9 years follow-up), projected risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death for all UK Biobank participants without and with statin treatment. Meta-analyses of trials and cohort studies informed statins' relative effects on cardiovascular events, incident diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis. UK healthcare perspective was taken (2020/2021 UK£) with costs per 28 tablets of £1.10 for standard (35%-45% LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction) and £1.68 for higher intensity (≥45% LDL-C reduction) generic statin., Findings: Across categories by sex, age, LDL-C, and cardiovascular disease history/10-year cardiovascular risk, lifetime standard statin increased survival by 0.28-1.85 years (0.20-1.09 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), and higher intensity statin by further 0.06-0.40 years (0.03-0.20 QALYs) per person. Standard statin was cost-effective across all categories with incremental cost per QALY from £280 to £8530, with higher intensity statin cost-effective at higher cardiovascular risks and higher LDL-C levels. Stopping statin early reduced benefits and was not cost-effective., Interpretation: Lifetime low-cost statin therapy is cost-effective across all 40-70 years old in UK. Strengthening and widening statin treatment could cost-effectively improve population health., Funding: UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme (17/140/02)., Competing Interests: BM reports research grant from the UK National Institute for Health Research and is a member (unpaid) of the European Society of Cardiology Clinical Practice Guidelines committee. RW, JZ and IS reports research support from the UK National Institute for Health Research. JE reports research funding from the UK National Institute for Health Research, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council. CR reports research funding from the UK National Institute for Health Research, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council and NHMRC Australia. AK research support from NHMRC Australia, Abbott, Amgen, Bayer, Mylan, Novartis, Sanofi, Viatris; speaker fees from Novartis; and is a Data Safety Monitoring Board member for Kowa. JA reports receiving a grant to their research institution from Novartis for the ORION 4 trial of inclisiran and. JS reports receiving grants for his institution from NHMRC Australia, Amgen, Bayer, BMS, MSD, Pfizer and Roche; consulting fees from FivepHusion, and is a chair (unpaid) of STAREE DSMB. CB reports research grants from UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Boehringer Ingelheim and Health Data Research UK, is a chair (unpaid) of a Data Safety Monitoring Board for Merck and a chair (unpaid) of the European Society of Cardiology Clinical Practice Guidelines committee. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Aims: Is it feasible to conduct a definitive multicentre trial in community settings of corticosteroid injections (CSI) and hydrodilation (HD) compared to CSI for patients with frozen shoulder? An adequately powered definitive randomized controlled trial (RCT) delivered in primary care will inform clinicians and the public whether hydrodilation is a clinically and cost-effective intervention. In this study, prior to a full RCT, we propose a feasibility trial to evaluate recruitment and retention by patient and clinician willingness of randomization; rates of withdrawal, crossover and attrition; and feasibility of outcome data collection from routine primary and secondary care data., Methods: In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) advises that prompt early management of frozen shoulder is initiated in primary care settings with analgesia, physiotherapy, and joint injections; most people can be managed without an operation. Currently, there is variation in the type of joint injection: 1) CSI, thought to reduce the inflammation of the capsule reducing pain; and 2) HD, where a small volume of fluid is injected into the shoulder joint along with the steroid, aiming to stretch the capsule of the shoulder to improve pain, but also allowing greater movement. The creation of musculoskeletal hubs nationwide provides infrastructure for the early and effective management of frozen shoulder. This potentially reduces costs to individuals and the wider NHS perhaps negating the need for a secondary care referral., Results: We will conduct a multicentre RCT comparing CSI and HD in combination with CSI alone. Patients aged 18 years and over with a clinical diagnosis of frozen shoulder will be randomized and blinded to receive either CSI and HD in combination, or CSI alone. Feasibility outcomes include the rate of randomization as a proportion of eligible patients and the ability to use routinely collected data for outcome evaluation. This study has involved patients and the public in the trial design, dissemination methods, and how to include groups who are underserved by research., Conclusion: We will disseminate findings among musculoskeletal clinicians via the British Orthopaedic Association, the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, the Royal College of Radiologists, and the Royal College of General Practitioners. To ensure wide reach we will communicate findings through our established network of charities and organizations, in addition to preparing dissemination findings in Bangla and Urdu (commonly spoken languages in northeast London). If a full trial is shown to be feasible, we will seek additional National Institute for Health and Care Research funding for a definitive RCT. This definitive study will inform NICE guidelines for the management of frozen shoulder., Competing Interests: This authors acknowledge the support of the National Institute for Health Research (NIJR) Barts Biomedical Research Centre (NIHR203330), and the ACCORD Study funded by the NIHR (ref no. NIHR203141). X. L. Griffin reports grants held as lead investigator for 16 trials; and being OTS Research Committee Chair, BOA Research Committee member, SICOT Grant awards member, and RCS England Surgical Trials Initiative Board member, all of which is unrelated to this article., (© 2024 Shah et al.)

Estimates of costs associated with disease states are required to inform decision analytic disease models to evaluate interventions that modify disease trajectory. Increasingly, decision analytic models are developed using patient-level data with a focus on heterogeneity between patients, and there is a demand for costs informing such models to reflect individual patient costs. Statistical models of health care costs need to recognize the specific features of costs data which typically include a large number of zero observations for non-users, and a skewed and heavy right-hand tailed distribution due to a small number of heavy healthcare users. Different methods are available for modelling costs, such as generalized linear models (GLMs), extended estimating equations and latent class approaches. While there are tutorials addressing approaches to decision modelling, there is no practical guidance on the cost estimation to inform such models. Therefore, this tutorial aims to provide a general guidance on estimating healthcare costs associated with disease states in decision analytic models. Specifically, we present a step-by-step guide to how individual participant data can be used to estimate costs over discrete periods for participants with particular characteristics, based on the GLM framework. We focus on the practical aspects of cost modelling from the conceptualization of the research question to the derivation of costs for an individual in particular disease states. We provide a practical example with step-by-step R code illustrating the process of modelling the hospital costs associated with disease states for a cardiovascular disease model., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist., Aim: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK., Design and Setting: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys., Method: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles., Results: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation., Conclusion: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments., (© The Authors.)

Background: Hospitals in China are classified into tiers (1, 2 or 3), with the largest (tier 3) having more equipment and specialist staff. Differential health insurance cost-sharing by hospital tier (lower deductibles and higher reimbursement rates in lower tiers) was introduced to reduce overcrowding in higher tier hospitals, promote use of lower tier hospitals, and limit escalating healthcare costs. However, little is known about the effects of differential cost-sharing in health insurance schemes on choice of hospital tiers., Methods: In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 M adults from 10 areas in China, we examined the associations between differential health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tiers for patients with a first hospitalisation for stroke or ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 2009-2017. Analyses were performed separately in urban areas (stroke: n = 20,302; IHD: n = 19,283) and rural areas (stroke: n = 21,130; IHD: n = 17,890), using conditional logit models and adjusting for individual socioeconomic and health characteristics., Findings: About 64-68% of stroke and IHD cases in urban areas and 27-29% in rural areas chose tier 3 hospitals. In urban areas, higher reimbursement rates in each tier and lower tier 3 deductibles were associated with a greater likelihood of choosing their respective hospital tiers. In rural areas, the effects of cost-sharing were modest, suggesting a greater contribution of other factors. Higher socioeconomic status and greater disease severity were associated with a greater likelihood of seeking care in higher tier hospitals in urban and rural areas., Interpretation: Patient choice of hospital tiers for treatment of stroke and IHD in China was influenced by differential cost-sharing in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Further strategies are required to incentivise appropriate health seeking behaviour and promote more efficient hospital use., Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and National Natural Science Foundation of China., Competing Interests: All authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Background: Hospital admissions account for a large share of the healthcare costs incurred by people with asthma. We assessed the hospital care use and costs associated with asthma severity using the UK Biobank cohort and linked healthcare data., Methods: Adult participants with asthma at recruitment were classified using their prescription data into mild and moderate-to-severe asthma and matched separately to asthma-free controls by age, sex, ethnicity and location. The associations of asthma, by severity, with the annual number of all-cause hospital admissions, days spent in hospital and hospital costs were estimated over a 10-year follow-up period using three specifications of negative binomial regression models that differed according to the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics adjusted for., Results: Of the 25 031 participants with active asthma, 80% had mild asthma and 20% had moderate-to-severe asthma. Compared with participants with mild asthma, those with moderate-to-severe asthma were on average 2.7 years older, more likely to be current (13.7% vs 10.4%) or previous (40.2% vs 35.2%) smokers, to have a higher body mass index (BMI), and to be suffering from a variety of comorbid diseases. Following adjustments for age, sex, ethnicity and location, people with mild asthma experienced on average 36% more admissions (95% CI 28% to 40%), 43% more days in hospital (95% CI 35% to 51%) and 36% higher hospital costs (95% CI 31% to 41%) annually than asthma-free individuals, while people with moderate-to-severe asthma experienced excesses of 93% (95% CI 81% to 107%), 142% (95% CI 124% to 162%) and 98% (95% CI 88% to 108%), respectively. Further adjustments for socioeconomic deprivation, smoking status, BMI and comorbidities resulted in smaller though still highly significant positive associations, graded by severity, between asthma and hospital use and costs., Conclusions: Strong graded associations are reported between asthma severity and the extent of hospital use and costs in the UK. These findings could inform future assessments of the value of asthma management interventions., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Air pollution harms health across the life course. Children are at particular risk of adverse effects during development, which may impact on health in later life. Interventions that improve air quality are urgently needed both to improve public health now, and prevent longer-term increased vulnerability to chronic disease. Low Emission Zones are a public health policy intervention aimed at reducing traffic-derived contributions to urban air pollution, but evidence that they deliver health benefits is lacking. We describe a natural experiment study (CHILL: Children's Health in London and Luton) to evaluate the impacts of the introduction of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on children's health., Methods: CHILL is a prospective two-arm parallel longitudinal cohort study recruiting children at age 6-9 years from primary schools in Central London (the focus of the first phase of the ULEZ) and Luton (a comparator site), with the primary outcome being the impact of changes in annual air pollutant exposures (nitrogen oxides [NOx], nitrogen dioxide [NO 2 ], particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5micrograms [PM 2.5 ], and less than 10 micrograms [PM 10 ]) across the two sites on lung function growth, measured as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV 1 ) over five years. Secondary outcomes include physical activity, cognitive development, mental health, quality of life, health inequalities, and a range of respiratory and health economic data., Discussion: CHILL's prospective parallel cohort design will enable robust conclusions to be drawn on the effectiveness of the ULEZ at improving air quality and delivering improvements in children's respiratory health. With increasing proportions of the world's population now living in large urban areas exceeding World Health Organisation air pollution limit guidelines, our study findings will have important implications for the design and implementation of Low Emission and Clean Air Zones in the UK, and worldwide., Clinicaltrials: GOV: NCT04695093 (05/01/2021)., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Despite optimized risk factor control, people with prior cardiovascular disease remain at high cardiovascular disease risk. We assess the immediate- and longer-term impacts of new vascular and nonvascular events on quality of life (QoL) and hospital costs among participants in the REVEAL (Randomized Evaluation of the Effects of Anacetrapib Through Lipid Modification) trial in secondary prevention., Methods and Results: Data on demographic and clinical characteristics, health-related quality of life (QoL: EuroQoL 5-Dimension-5-Level), adverse events, and hospital admissions during the 4-year follow-up of the 21 820 participants recruited in Europe and North America informed assessments of the impacts of new adverse events on QoL and hospital costs from the UK and US health systems' perspectives using generalized linear regression models. Reductions in QoL were estimated in the years of event occurrence for nonhemorrhagic stroke (-0.067 [United Kingdom], -0.069 [US]), heart failure admission (-0.072 [United Kingdom], -0.103 [US]), incident cancer (-0.064 [United Kingdom], -0.068 [US]), and noncoronary revascularization (-0.071 [United Kingdom], -0.061 [US]), as well as in subsequent years following these events. Myocardial infarction and coronary revascularization (CRV) procedures were not found to affect QoL. All adverse events were associated with additional hospital costs in the years of events and in subsequent years, with the highest additional costs in the years of noncoronary revascularization (£5830 [United Kingdom], $14 133 [US Medicare]), of myocardial infarction with urgent CRV procedure (£5614, $24722), and of urgent/nonurgent CRV procedure without myocardial infarction (£4674/£4651 and $15 251/$17 539)., Conclusions: Stroke, heart failure, and noncoronary revascularization procedures substantially reduce QoL, and all cardiovascular disease events increase hospital costs. These estimates are useful in informing cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in secondary prevention., Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01252953; https://www.Isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN48678192; https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu. Unique identifier: 2010-023467-18.

Background: Arts therapies are widely but inconsistently provided in community mental health. Whilst they are appealing to patients, evidence for their effectiveness is mixed. Trials to date have been limited to one art-form or diagnosis. Patients may hold strong preferences for or against an art-form whilst group therapies rely on heterogeneity to provide a range of learning experiences. This study will test whether manualised group arts therapies (art therapy, dance movement therapy and music therapy) are effective in reducing psychological distress for diagnostically heterogeneous patients in community mental health compared to active group counselling control., Methods: A pragmatic multi-centre 2-arm randomised controlled superiority trial with health economic evaluation and nested process evaluation. Adults aged ≥ 18, living in the community with a primary diagnosis of psychosis, mood, or anxiety disorder will be invited to participate and provide written informed consent. Participants are eligible if they score ≥ 1.65 on the Global Severity Index of the Brief Symptom Inventory. Those eligible will view videos of arts therapies and be asked for their preference. Participants are randomised to either their preferred type of group arts therapy or counselling. Groups will run twice per week in a community venue for 20 weeks. Our primary outcome is symptom distress at the end of intervention. Secondary outcomes include observer-rated symptoms, social situation and quality of life. Data will be collected at baseline, post-intervention and 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Outcome assessors and trial statisticians will be blinded. Analysis will be intention-to-treat. Economic evaluation will assess the cost-effectiveness of group arts therapies. A nested process evaluation will consist of treatment fidelity analysis, exploratory analysis of group process measures and qualitative interviews with participants and therapists., Discussion: This will be the first trial to account for patient preferences and diagnostic heterogeneity in group arts therapies. As with all group therapies, there are a number of logistical challenges to which we have had to further adapt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the study will provide evidence as to whether there is an additive benefit or not to the use of the arts in group therapy in community mental health care., Trial Registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN88805048 . Registered on 12 September 2018., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Introduction: In the UK, approximately 4.3 million adults have asthma, with one-third experiencing poor asthma control, affecting their quality of life, and increasing their healthcare use. Interventions promoting emotional/behavioural self-management can improve asthma control and reduce comorbidities and mortality. Integration of online peer support into primary care services to foster self-management is a novel strategy. We aim to co-design and evaluate an intervention for primary care clinicians to promote engagement with an asthma online health community (OHC). Our protocol describes a 'survey leading to a trial' design as part of a mixed-methods, non-randomised feasibility study to test the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention., Methods and Analysis: Adults on the asthma registers of six London general practices (~3000 patients) will be invited to an online survey, via text messages. The survey will collect data on attitudes towards seeking online peer support, asthma control, anxiety, depression, quality of life, information on the network of people providing support with asthma and demographics. Regression analyses of the survey data will identify correlates/predictors of attitudes/receptiveness towards online peer support. Patients with troublesome asthma, who (in the survey) expressed interest in online peer support, will be invited to receive the intervention, aiming to reach a recruitment target of 50 patients. Intervention will involve a one-off, face-to-face consultation with a practice clinician to introduce online peer support, sign patients up to an established asthma OHC, and encourage OHC engagement. Outcome measures will be collected at baseline and 3 months post intervention and analysed with primary care and OHC engagement data. Recruitment, intervention uptake, retention, collection of outcomes, and OHC engagement will be assessed. Interviews with clinicians and patients will explore experiences of the intervention., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethical approval was obtained from a National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (reference: 22/NE/0182). Written consent will be obtained before intervention receipt and interview participation. Findings will be shared via dissemination to general practices, conference presentations and peer-reviewed publications., Trial Registration Number: NCT05829265., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing major emergency gastrointestinal surgery are a major burden on healthcare systems. Optimal management of perioperative intravenous fluids may reduce mortality rates and improve outcomes from surgery. Previous small trials of cardiac-output guided haemodynamic therapy algorithms in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery have suggested this intervention results in reduced complications and a modest reduction in mortality. However, this existing evidence is based mainly on elective (planned) surgery, with little evaluation in the emergency setting. There are fundamental clinical and pathophysiological differences between the planned and emergency surgical setting which may influence the effects of this intervention. A large definitive trial in emergency surgery is needed to confirm or refute the potential benefits observed in elective surgery and to inform widespread clinical practice., Methods: The FLO-ELA trial is a multi-centre, parallel-group, open, randomised controlled trial. 3138 patients aged 50 and over undergoing major emergency gastrointestinal surgery will be randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio using minimisation to minimally invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide protocolised administration of intra-venous fluid, or usual care without cardiac output monitoring. The trial intervention will be carried out during surgery and for up to 6 h postoperatively. The trial is funded through an efficient design call by the National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment (NIHR HTA) programme and uses existing routinely collected datasets for the majority of data collection. The primary outcome is the number of days alive and out of hospital within 90 days of randomisation. Participants and those delivering the intervention will not be blinded to treatment allocation. Participant recruitment started in September 2017 with a 1-year internal pilot phase and is ongoing at the time of publication., Discussion: This will be the largest contemporary randomised trial examining the effectiveness of perioperative cardiac output-guided haemodynamic therapy in patients undergoing major emergency gastrointestinal surgery. The multi-centre design and broad inclusion criteria support the external validity of the trial. Although the clinical teams delivering the trial interventions will not be blinded, significant trial outcome measures are objective and not subject to detection bias., Trial Registration: ISRCTN 14729158. Registered on 02 May 2017., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Lockdown measures, including school closures, due to the COVID-19 pandemic have caused widespread disruption to children's lives. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of a national lockdown on children's physical activity using seasonally matched accelerometry data., Methods: Using a pre/post observational design, 179 children aged 8 to 11 years provided physical activity data measured using hip-worn triaxial accelerometers worn for 5 consecutive days prepandemic and during the January to March 2021 lockdown. Multilevel regression analyses adjusted for covariates were used to assess the impact of lockdown on time spent in sedentary and moderate to vigorous physical activity., Results: A 10.8-minute reduction in daily time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity (standard error: 2.3 min/d, P < .001) and a 33.2-minute increase in daily sedentary activity (standard error: 5.5 min/d, P < .001) were observed during lockdown. This reflected a reduction in daily moderate to vigorous physical activity for those unable to attend school (-13.1 [2.3] min/d, P < .001) during lockdown, with no significant change for those who continued to attend school (0.4 [4.0] min/d, P < .925)., Conclusion: These findings suggest that the loss of in-person schooling was the single largest impact on physical activity in this cohort of primary school children in London, Luton, and Dunstable, United Kingdom.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop prediction models for the individual-level impacts of cardiovascular events on UK healthcare costs., Methods: In the UK Biobank, people 40-70 years old, recruited in 2006-2010, were followed in linked primary (N = 192,983 individuals) and hospital care (N = 501,807 individuals) datasets. Regression models of annual primary and annual hospital care costs (2020 UK£) associated with individual characteristics and experiences of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularization, incident diabetes mellitus and cancer, and vascular and nonvascular death are reported., Results: For both people without and with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), primary care costs were modelled using one-part generalised linear models (GLMs) with identity link and Poisson distribution, and hospital costs with two-part models (part 1: logistic regression models the probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with identity link and Poisson distribution models the costs conditional on incurring any). In people without previous CVD, mean annual primary and hospital care costs were £360 and £514, respectively. The excess primary care costs were £190 and £360 following MI and stroke, respectively, whereas excess hospital costs decreased from £4340 and £5590, respectively, in the year of these events, to £190 and £410 two years later. People with previous CVD had more than twice higher annual costs, and incurred higher excess costs for cardiovascular events. Other characteristics associated with higher costs included older age, female sex, south Asian ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, lower level of physical activities, unhealthy body mass index, and comorbidities., Conclusions: These individual-level healthcare cost prediction models could inform assessments of the value of health technologies and policies to reduce cardiovascular and other disease risks and healthcare costs. An accompanying Excel calculator is available to facilitate the use of the models., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objective: To estimate the extent of suboptimal statin use for the secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) at different stages of the treatment pathway and identify patient groups at risk of suboptimal treatment., Methods: National retrospective cohort study using linked National Health Service Scotland administrative data of adults hospitalised for an ASCVD event (n=167 978) from 2009 to 2017. Proportions of patients initiating, adhering to, discontinuing and reinitiating statins were calculated. We separately examined treatment following myocardial infarction (MI), ischaemic stroke and peripheral arterial disease (PAD) hospitalisations. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the roles of patient characteristics in the likelihood of initiating and discontinuing statins., Results: Of patients hospitalised with ASCVD, only 81% initiated statin therapy, 40% of whom used high-intensity statin. Characteristics associated with lower odds of initiation included female sex (28% less likely than men), age below 50 years or above 70 years (<50 year-olds 26% less likely, and 70-79, 80-89 and ≥90 year-olds 22%, 49% and 77% less likely, respectively, than 60-69 year-olds), living in the most deprived areas and history of mental health-related hospital admission. Following MI, 88% of patients initiated therapy compared with 81% following ischaemic stroke and 75% following PAD events. Of statin-treated individuals, 24% discontinued treatment. Characteristics associated with discontinuation were similar to those related to non-initiation., Conclusions: Statin use remains suboptimal for the secondary ASCVD prevention, particularly in women and older patients, and following ischaemic stroke and PAD hospitalisations. Improving this would offer substantial benefits to population health at low cost., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The Nuffield Department of Population Health has a policy that staff members do not receive personal payments, directly or indirectly, from industry. DP reports that he is a committee member for the ongoing National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Cardiovascular Disease: Risk Assessment and Reduction, including Lipid Modification guideline, and an investigator on the ORION-4 trial (inclisiran vs placebo for the secondary prevention of CVD), which is funded by a grant from Novartis to the University of Oxford but for which he obtains no salary support. DP and BM report that they are members of the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists’ Collaboration Secretariat. BM, AG and IS are investigators in the ongoing NIHR HTA project 17/140/02 'Cost-effectiveness of statin therapies evaluated using individual participant data from large randomised clinical trials'., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Aim: To estimate the annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events for people with diabetes in the UK., Methods: Annual hospital costs (2019/2020) were derived from 15 436 ASCEND participants from 2005 to 2017 (120 420 person-years). The annual hospital costs associated with cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, transient ischaemic attack [TIA], ischaemic stroke, heart failure), bleeding (gastrointestinal [GI] bleed, intracranial haemorrhage, other major bleed), cancer (GI tract cancer, non-GI tract cancer), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), lower limb amputation and death (vascular, non-vascular) were estimated using a generalized linear model following adjustment for participants' sociodemographic and clinical factors., Results: In the year of event, ESRD was associated with the largest increase in annual hospital cost (£20 954), followed by lower limb amputation (£17 887), intracranial haemorrhage (£12 080), GI tract cancer (£10 160), coronary revascularization (£8531 if urgent; £8302 if non-urgent), heart failure (£8319), non-GI tract cancer (£7409), ischaemic stroke (£7170), GI bleed (£5557), myocardial infarction (£4913), other major bleed (£3825) and TIA (£1523). In subsequent years, most adverse events were associated with lasting but smaller increases in hospital costs, except for ESRD, where the additional cost remained high (£20 090)., Conclusions: Our study provides robust estimates of annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events in people with diabetes that can inform future cost-effectiveness analyses of diabetes interventions. It also highlights the potential cost savings that could be derived from prevention of these costly complications., (© 2022 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based method is being used broadly for genetic testing especially for clinically and genetically heterogeneous disorders, such as inherited retinal degenerations (IRDs) but still not routinely used for molecular diagnostics in Bulgaria. Consequently, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a molecular diagnostic approach, based on targeted NGS for the identification of the disease-causing mutations in 16 Bulgarian patients with different IRDs., Methods: We applied a customized NGS panel, including 125 genes associated with retinal and other eye diseases to the patients with hereditary retinopathies., Results: Systematic filtering approach coupled with copy number variation analysis and segregation study lead to the identification of 16 pathogenic and likely pathogenic variants in 12/16 (75%) of IRD patients, 2 of which novel (12.5%): ABCA4-c.668delA (p.K223Rfs18) and RР1-c.2015dupA (p.K673Efs*25). Mutations in the ABCA4, PRPH2, USH2A, BEST1, RР1, CDHR1, and RHO genes were detected reaching a diagnostic yield between 42.9% for Retinitis pigmentosa cases and 100% for macular degeneration, Usher syndrome, and cone-rod dystrophy patients., Conclusion: Our results confirm the usefulness of targeted NGS approach based on frequently mutated genes as a comprehensive and successful genetic diagnostic tool for IRDs with significant impact on patients counseling., (© 2022 The Authors. Molecular Genetics & Genomic Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background and Aims: The increasing prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) poses a substantial economic burden globally on health systems and societies. Validated instruments to collect data on healthcare and other service utilisation by patients with IBD are lacking. We developed a self-report patient questionnaire to capture key resource utilisation from health services, patient and societal perspectives., Methods: The IBD Resource Use Questionnaire (IBD-RUQ), developed by a multidisciplinary team, including patients, comprises 102 items across the six categories of outpatient visits, diagnostics, medication, hospitalisations, employment and out-of-pocket expenses over the past three months. The test-retest reliability of the IBD-RUQ was studied by administering it twice among patients with IBD with a 2-week time gap. The intraclass correlation coefficients and the average cost from the healthcare, societal and patient perspectives, between test and retest assessments, overall and by service category, were summarised., Results: The IBD-RUQ captures health service use, employment and out-of-pocket expenses. Of 55 patients who completed the first questionnaire, 48 completed the retest questionnaires and were included in the analyses. Test-retest reliability for categories of medications, diagnostics, specialist outpatient and inpatient services, and days off work due to IBD ranged from moderate to excellent; primary care visits showed more limited reliability. The annualised average self-reported health service, out-of-pocket and loss of productivity costs were £4844, £320 and £545 per patient, respectively., Conclusions: The IBD-RUQ is a reliable and valid self-report measure of resource utilisation in adults with IBD and can be used to measure costs associated with IBD., Competing Interests: Competing interests: No., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Community pharmacies serve people with high levels of tobacco-related illness, but throughput in NHS Stop Smoking Services in pharmacies remains relatively low. We investigated the effectiveness of a complex intervention to increase service uptake and retention., Methods: We randomised 60 pharmacies in England and Wales to the STOP intervention or usual practice in a pragmatic, parallel-group, controlled trial over 11 months. Smokers were blind to the allocation. The intervention was theory-based consultation skills training for pharmacy staff with environmental prompts (badges, calendars and behavioural cues). The primary outcome was the number of smokers attending an initial consultation and setting a quit date., Results: The intervention made no significant difference in setting a quit date, retention or quit rate. A total of 631 adult smokers (service users) enrolled and set a quit date in intervention pharmacies compared to 641 in usual practice pharmacies, a rate ratio of 0.75 (95% CI 0.46 to 1.23) adjusted for site and number of prescriptions. A total of 432 (68%) service users were retained at 4 weeks in intervention and 500 (78%) in usual practice pharmacies (odds ratio 0.80, 0.41 to 1.55). A total of 265 (42%) service users quit smoking at 4 weeks in intervention and 276 (43%) in usual practice pharmacies (0.96, 0.65 to 1.43). The pharmacy staff were positive about the intervention with 90% (56/62) stating that it had improved their skills. Sixty-eight per cent would strongly recommend the training to others although there was no difference in self-efficacy for service delivery between arms. Seventy of 131 (53%) service users did not complete the 6-month follow-up assessment. However, 55/61 (90%) service users who completed follow-up were satisfied or very satisfied with the service. All usual practice arm service users (n = 33) and all but one in the intervention arm (n = 27) would recommend the service to smokers., Conclusions: We found high levels of retention and acceptable quit rates in the NHS pharmacy stop smoking service. Despite pharmacy staff providing positive feedback on the STOP intervention, it made no difference to service throughput. Thus, other factors may currently limit service capacity to help smokers to quit., Trial Registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN16351033 . Retrospectively registered., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Severe developmental disability in children affects the life of the child and entire household. We conducted a qualitative study to understand how caregivers manage severe developmental disabilities in children in rural Africa. Families and six children (out of 15 children) who had serious permanent sequelae from a cerebral infection in Handeni, Tanzania, were contacted and invited to a workshop to recount their experience living with severe developmental disabilities. After consent, individual interviews were conducted first through recording of individual digital stories and then through individual semi-structured interviews. Pre-determined key categories were used to analyse the data. Our results showed that developmental disabilities required constant care and reduced the autonomy of the children. Schooling had not been attempted or was halted because of learning problems or inability to meet specialized school costs. Parents were under constant physical, emotional and financial stress. Their occupational earnings decreased. Some families sold their assets to survive. Others began to rely on relatives. Understanding the consequences of developmental disability helps to identify where social support should be focused and improved., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Incorporating repeated measurements of vitals and laboratory measurements can improve mortality risk-prediction and identify key risk factors in individualized treatment of COVID-19 hospitalized patients. In this observational study, demographic and laboratory data of all admitted patients to 5 hospitals of Mount Sinai Health System, New York, with COVID-19 positive tests between March 1st and June 8th, 2020, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Next day mortality risk of patients was assessed using a transformer-based model BEHRTDAY fitted to patient time series data of vital signs, blood and other laboratory measurements given the entire patients' hospital stay. The study population includes 3699 COVID-19 positive (57% male, median age: 67) patients. This model had a very high average precision score (0.96) and area under receiver operator curve (0.92) for next-day mortality prediction given entire patients' trajectories, and through masking, it learnt each variable's context., (©2022 AMIA - All rights reserved.)

Machine learning can be used to identify relevant trajectory shape features for improved predictive risk modeling, which can help inform decisions for individualized patient management in intensive care during COVID-19 outbreaks. We present explainable random forests to dynamically predict next day mortality risk in COVID -19 positive and negative patients admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System between March 1st and June 8th, 2020 using patient time-series data of vitals, blood and other laboratory measurements from the previous 7 days. Three different models were assessed by using time series with: 1) most recent patient measurements, 2) summary statistics of trajectories (min/max/median/first/last/count), and 3) coefficients of fitted cubic splines to trajectories. AUROC and AUPRC with cross-validation were used to compare models. We found that the second and third models performed statistically significantly better than the first model. Model interpretations are provided at patient-specific level to inform resource allocation and patient care., (©2022 AMIA - All rights reserved.)

Aims: REVEAL was the first randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that adding cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor therapy to intensive statin therapy reduced the risk of major coronary events. We now report results from extended follow-up beyond the scheduled study treatment period., Methods and Results: A total of 30 449 adults with prior atherosclerotic vascular disease were randomly allocated to anacetrapib 100 mg daily or matching placebo, in addition to open-label atorvastatin therapy. After stopping the randomly allocated treatment, 26 129 survivors entered a post-trial follow-up period, blind to their original treatment allocation. The primary outcome was first post-randomization major coronary event (i.e. coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization) during the in-trial and post-trial treatment periods, with analysis by intention-to-treat. Allocation to anacetrapib conferred a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3-15%; P = 0.004] proportional reduction in the incidence of major coronary events during the study treatment period (median 4.1 years). During extended follow-up (median 2.2 years), there was a further 20% (95% CI 10-29%; P < 0.001) reduction. Overall, there was a 12% (95% CI 7-17%, P < 0.001) proportional reduction in major coronary events during the overall follow-up period (median 6.3 years), corresponding to a 1.8% (95% CI 1.0-2.6%) absolute reduction. There were no significant effects on non-vascular mortality, site-specific cancer, or other serious adverse events. Morbidity follow-up was obtained for 25 784 (99%) participants., Conclusion: The beneficial effects of anacetrapib on major coronary events increased with longer follow-up, and no adverse effects emerged on non-vascular mortality or morbidity. These findings illustrate the importance of sufficiently long treatment and follow-up duration in randomized trials of lipid-modifying agents to assess their full benefits and potential harms., Trial Registration: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 48678192; ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT01252953; EudraCT No. 2010-023467-18., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Objectives: The UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) developed using 30-year (1977-2007) data from the UKPDS is widely used for health outcomes' projections and economic evaluations of therapies for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, its reliability for contemporary UK T2D populations is unclear. We assessed the performance of version 2 of the model (UKPDS-OM2) using data from A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND), which followed participants with diabetes in the UK between 2005 and 2017., Methods: The UKPDS-OM2 was used to predict the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), other ischemic heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death, and other death among the 14 569 participants with T2D in ASCEND, all without previous CV disease at study entry. Calibration (comparison of predicted and observed year-on-year cumulative incidence over 10 years) and discrimination (c-statistics) of the model were assessed for each endpoint. The percentage error in event rates at year 7 (mean duration of follow up) was used to quantify model bias., Results: The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted MI, stroke, CV death, and other death over the 10-year follow-up period (by 149%, 42%, 269%, and 52%, respectively, at year 7). Discrimination of the model for MI and other ischemic heart disease (c-statistics 0.58 and 0.60, respectively) was poorer than that for other outcomes (c-statistics ranging from 0.66 to 0.72)., Conclusions: The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted risks of key CV outcomes and death in people with T2D in ASCEND. Appropriate adjustments or a new model may be required for assessments of long-term effects of treatments in contemporary T2D cohorts., (Copyright © 2021 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To estimate the decrements in health-related quality of life (QoL) associated with a range of adverse events to inform assessments of the effects of diabetes treatments on QoL in contemporary clinical practice., Methods: Participants' QoL utility measures were derived from the five-level EuroQoL five-dimensional (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaires completed by 11 683 ASCEND participants (76% of 15 480 recruited). EQ-5D utility decrements associated with cardiovascular (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, transient ischaemic attack [TIA], ischaemic stroke, heart failure), bleeding (gastrointestinal [GI] bleed, intracranial haemorrhage, other major bleed), cancer (GI tract cancer, non-GI tract cancer), and microvascular events (end-stage renal disease [ESRD], amputation) were estimated using a linear regression model following adjustment for participants' sociodemographic and clinical risk factors., Results: Amputation was associated with the largest EQ-5D utility decrement (-0.206), followed by heart failure (-0.185), intracranial haemorrhage (-0.164), GI bleed (-0.091), other major bleed (-0.096), ischaemic stroke (-0.061), TIA (-0.057), and non-GI tract cancer (-0.026). We were unable to detect decrements in EQ-5D utility associated with myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, GI tract cancer, or ESRD. EQ-5D utility was lower at older age, independent of other factors., Conclusion: These estimated decrements in QoL associated with cardiovascular, bleeding, cancer, and other adverse events can inform assessments of the overall value of treatments in patients with diabetes., (© 2021 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)