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The ability to predict prolonged length of stay (LOS) is essential to control escalating hospital costs. Operative mortality is a poor predictor of LOS; morbidity as defined by hospitalization for14 days after coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), appears to be responsible for increasing costs. The purpose of this study was to measure preoperative predictive indicators of increased LOS with an eventual plan to offer alternative cost-benefit therapeutic options.Nine hundred twenty-four consecutive patients (age, 60-86 years) undergoing CABG were retrospectively studied by means of the Cox proportional hazards model. Seventeen variables, excluding death, were analyzed and quantified as to importance, and point totals were calculated for each patient. Scores were 12 for congestive heart failure and intra-aortic balloon assist device; 10, creatinine2; 6, intra-aortic balloon assist device only; 5, congestive heart failure only; 3, obesity; 6, age75 years; 3, age 70-75 years; and 2, 65-69 years.Increasing index score directly correlated with an exponential increase in LOS. These data substantiate the hypothesis that a mathematical model can predict LOS in CABG patients and may offer rational alternative strategies in delivering cost-effective health care.

Tolerance of elemental (for example, Peptamen [PEP]) or free amino acid (for example, Vivonex TEN [VIV]) tube feeding diets is controversial, especially in the critically ill patient who is hypoalbuminemic. A prospective, randomized trial was conducted to compare differences between feeding PEP (n = 8) or VIV (n = 8) in critically ill, elderly (average age of 66 years) patients. Diets were administered through nasogastric or postpyloric feeding tubes. Eleven patients had diseases of the gastrointestinal tract; all underwent surgical treatment. Patients were fed each diet at full strength, beginning with 20 to 30 milliliters per hour and advancing by 10 to 20 milliliters every day until goal rate was reached, usually on day 4. Assessment was made for ability to comply with rate of tube feeding ordered, compliance with caloric goal and tolerance (as evidenced by abdominal discomfort and diarrhea). Diarrhea was qualitatively defined as more than three stools per day and then quantitatively as the mean number of stools daily. There were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of compliance with prescribed tube feeding order or caloric goal or the presence of diarrhea and abdominal discomfort. There was a significant difference between the two groups in terms of the actual number of stools per day (PEP equals 1.38 versus VIV equals 2.25, p less than 0.02). Serum albumin concentrations upon initiation of the diets were 2.3 grams per deciliter in both groups. We conclude that tolerance to the two diets were similar because it was possible to feed enterally either PEP or VIV in critically ill, hypoalbuminemic patients (serum albumin concentrations of less than 2.5 grams per deciliter) successfully, irrespective of diet. Although there were more stools in the VIV group, this did not reduce compliance with the goals.

The rationing of medical care prioritizes the need for early predictors of death in the surgical intensive care unit (SICU). We prospectively studied 100 consecutive SICU admissions, looking for predictors of early death in the SICU and the cost implications of these findings. Serial APACHE II scores on days 1, 3, and 5 were subjected to multinomial logistic regression analysis to determine significant predictors of death in the SICU on day 1. Survivors had significantly lower (p less than 0.05) mean day-1 APACHE II scores than had nonsurvivors (13.6 vs 22.1). Half of the patients with scores greater than 18 died, and all patients with scores on day 1 of 25 or greater died. Significant predictors of death on SICU day 1 were APACHE II scores, Acute Physiology Score, Glasgow Coma Score, creatinine level, and Chronic Health Evaluation Score. Forty-one patients had been transferred from community hospitals as a results of acute illness; this population accounted for two thirds of the deaths in the SICU. Ten of 18 nonsurvivors were predicted on day 1, with these patients incurring a total cost of approximately $1 million. If therapy had been modified on days 5, 10, or 15, the potential cost savings would have been $340,000, $240,000, or $140,000, respectively. Integration of the results of this study into the management decision-making process and treatment guidelines may reduce the cost of care in the SICU.

During the course of a critical illness, many patients become ventilator dependent. The standard assessment criteria are not always accurate in predicting potential for extubation. This investigation was designed to analyze whether the work of breathing (WOB) was a more reliable predictor of ventilator dependence. Twenty consecutive ventilator-dependent patients were prospectively studied. Nineteen required ventilator support for greater than 2 wk and all were considered ventilator dependent because of their inability to tolerate weaning trials. The oxygen consumption (VO2) and resting energy expenditure were measured using a metabolic gas monitor. Respiratory mechanics and arterial blood gas measurements were obtained, and the deadspace to tidal volume ratio (VD/VT) was calculated. The WOB was determined by the difference in VO2 between spontaneous and mechanical ventilation, and expressed as a percentage of VO2 during mechanical ventilation. Five of eight patients with a WOB less than 15% (mean 1.9) were extubated within 2 wk of study, while none of 12 patients with a WOB greater than or equal to 15% (mean 34) were able to be extubated in this period. The differences in the WOB between the two groups were statistically significant (p less than .01), while there was no significant difference in mechanics, PaCO2, VD/VT or measured resting energy expenditure. These data support the use of WOB determinations in evaluating extubation potential. Using a reference value for the WOB of 15%, this study had a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 80%. This proved to be of greater predictive value than traditional criteria.