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The paper introduces a transparent methodology to assess new suitable locations for mini and small hydro power plants in Europe. The expansion of hydro electricity production is a policy focus not only in Europe, but in the US (Hydropower Regulatory Efficiency Act of 2013) and in the developing world as well. The analysis of the technical potential points out the exact geographical locations and their corresponding capacities instead of only a theoretical potential; therefore it can serve as a reference for the policy debate over the sustainable management of water resources. This debate is reflected already in two major European policies: the Water Framework Directive (WFD) (2000/60/EC) and the RES Directive (2009/28/EC) on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. As both policies have major influence on the priorities of water use, it is important to identify water management practices capable of accommodating sustainable energy purposes while maintaining water quality objectives at the same time. As the WFD poses limitation on the further expansion of large scale hydro options in the European water bodies, the present study focuses on local mini and small hydropower options and their suitability mapping. The presented, geographically explicit method is based on geospatial analysis and the results can contribute to the prioritization of potential hydro power sites in order to improve water quality and its use for energy simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present paper introduces the results of a spatial-economic analysis that identifies the least cost rural electrification options that can bring the persistent energy poverty to an end in Sub Saharan Africa. The rationale behind the analysis is that the applicable energy technologies have gone through fundamental changes and these have profound effects on the competitiveness of the various options. The least cost distributed generation options are calculated for each geographical location for mini hydro, off grid PV and diesel generators options and it is compared to the electricity grid extension. The methodology presented in this manuscript organises the scarcely available energy-related local and regional geo-information into comprehensible maps. The set of tools presented and the results based on those analyses can support decision and policy makers to plan for the least-cost rural electrification options while also adapting to the most effective way to reduce energy poverty. This can help in the national rural electrification plans by delineating which communities cannot be reached by existing grid without excessive extension costs and gives the alternative distributed generation option. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides a geographical assessment of potential bioenergy production in the European Union from residues of eight agricultural crops (wheat, barley, rye, oat, maize, rice, rapeseed and sunflower). The evaluation is geographically explicit at the scale of 1km2 and is based on two main computational steps. In the first step the amount of crop residues resulting from statistical assessment based on the methodology developed by Scarlat et al. [1] have been spatially allocated on the EU-27 1 [1] The EU-27 expression symbolizes the current status of EU enlargements. Further information: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Glossary:EU-27. territory using several auxiliary geospatial layers describing, for example, land cover, expected biomass productivity derived from soil parameters, climatic zones and topographical conditions. In the second step the number of model power plants (i.e., plants with a size of 50MW thermal input and a raw material demand of about 100kt/yr might be conveniently fed with available crop residues was estimated on the basis of two different allocation strategies implying a different grade of optimization. The results show that the estimated crop residue resources in EU-27 could provide fuel for about 850 plants expected to produce about 1500PJ/yr. Mobilization needs for the residues are also estimated, leading to a total amount of 1.5×1012–2×1012 tkm are necessary for the full potential exploitation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Wind and solar energy are expected to play a major role in the current decade to help Europe reaching the renewable energy penetration targets fixed by Directive 2009/28/EC. However, it is difficult to predict the actual production profiles of wind and solar energy as they depend heavily on variable meteorological features of solar radiation and wind speed. In an ideal system, wind and solar electricity are both injected in a fast reacting grid instantaneously matching supply and demand. In such a system wind and solar electricity production profiles should complement each other as much as possible in order to minimise the need of storage and additional capacity. In the present paper the complementarity of wind and solar resources is assessed for a test year in Italy. To achieve this goal we employ data at high spatial and temporal resolution data for both solar radiation and wind speed in Italy obtained from running two state of the art models (PVGIS and MINNI). Hourly profiles for solar and wind energy produced are compared in each 4 × 4 km2 grid cell in Italy for 2005, and hourly, daily and monthly correlation coefficients are computed in order to assess the local complementarity of the two resources. A Monte Carlo approach is also developed to estimate how large-scale wind and solar energy productions could be potentially involved to complement each other in a scenario with up to 100 production sites across Italy. The results show how local complementarity can be very interesting with monthly correlation coefficients reaching values lower than −0.8 in several areas. Large-scale complementarity is also relevant with nation-wide monthly correlation coefficients showing values between −0.65 and −0.6. These model results indicate that in this sample year of 2005, wind and solar energy potential production have shown complementary time behaviour complementary, favourably supporting their integration in the energy system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Following the successful Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) system worldwide, few countries have implemented FiTs explicitly tailored for off-grid or mini-grid systems. This study takes an integrated approach to examine the feasibility of an off-grid Feed-in Tariff (off-FiT) for existing and new remote mini-grids in Tanzania, using a combination of geographical analysis, technical, economic and institutional assessments. Based on detailed modelling of two community off-grid cases, (i) PV-diesel and (ii) mini-hydro, we identify least-cost rural electrification options that make solar and mini-hydro energy competitive with diesel generators and potential effect of the support scheme on rural electrification plans. In the first case, we illustrate where the off-FiT complements diesel generation of an existing mini-grid (PV-diesel). In the second case (mini-hydro), we illustrate conditions where the off-FiT policy brings mini-hydro generation to non-electrified communities and sells renewable electricity directly to new customers. Currently, Tanzania has Standardized Power Purchase (SPP) rates, which target generators connected to the national grid and distribution systems of mini-grids or isolated grids. We found for the off-FiT tariff the total amount needed to support the same number of customers by solar and hydro-mini grids versus diesel would be of 31.5 million US$, or a premium of 0.11 US$/kWh to the present current SPPs tariff of 0.24 US$/kWh for PV. We also found that a technology specific FiT tariff would be most suitable to attract national and international investors by providing a rate of return that compensates the risk of the investment. The overall support is comparable to the 36 million US$ that the government currently subsidizes and allocates to diesel mini-grids in country, and this shows the potential for a long-term renewable energy strategy for mini-grid areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A methodology for evaluating ensemble forecasts, taking into account observational uncertainties for catchment-based precipitation averages, is introduced. Probability distributions for mean catchment precipitation are derived with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. The observation uncertainty includes errors in the measurements, uncertainty as a result of the inhomogeneities in the rain gauge network, and representativeness errors introduced by the interpolation methods. The closeness of the forecast probability distribution to the observed fields is measured using the Brier skill score, rank histograms, relative entropy, and the ratio between the ensemble spread and the error of the ensemble-median forecast (spread–error ratio). Four different methods have been used to interpolate observations on the catchment regions. Results from a 43-day period (20 July–31 August 2002) show little sensitivity to the interpolation method used. The rank histograms and the relative entropy better show the effect of introducing observation uncertainty, although this effect on the Brier skill score and the spread–error ratio is not very large. The case study indicates that overall observation uncertainty should be taken into account when evaluating forecast skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are over 650 million people in Africa who have no access to electricity; this is in sharp contrast to the continent's vast untapped renewable energy potential and due largely to the historical lack of investments in energy infrastructure. New investments in decentralised power generation within Sub-Saharan Africa play a progressively important role in increasing energy access and addressing the continent's electricity supply shortages. Tracking the performance of Sub-Saharan African countries along various socio-political and economic axes can spur the mobilisation of private, public and international sectors in investing in decentralised energy technologies. An increasing amount of high-resolution global spatial data are available, and used for various assessments. However, key multidimensional indicators are mainly still provided only at the national level. To this end, we present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of the attractiveness for decentralised photovoltaic technologies at an unprecedented level of detail using both high-resolution spatial data and national reports. We develop and build a new composite indicator that considers the interplay between social, political, environmental and financial factors at a granular regional level for Sub-Saharan Africa and embeds within it the importance of the local production costs at high-spatial resolution. • Composite indicator for directing/informing decentralised renewable energy investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. • Integrates technological, environmental, social, political and financial factors for decision support. • Combines country level data with high-spatial resolution (i.e. electricity production costs). • Raw data provision enabling stakeholders to focus on specific country attributes. • Interactive tool will enable users to weight indicators to their specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]