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OBJECTIVE: Previous work has suggested that the ultrasound-based benign simple descriptors (BDs) can reliably exclude malignancy in a large proportion of women presenting with an adnexal mass. This study aimed to validate a modified version of the BDs and to validate a two-step strategy to estimate the risk of malignancy, in which the modified BDs are followed by the Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa (ADNEX) model if modified BDs do not apply. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis using data from the 2-year interim analysis of the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) Phase-5 study, in which consecutive patients with at least one adnexal mass were recruited irrespective of subsequent management (conservative or surgery). The main outcome was classification of tumors as benign or malignant, based on histology or on clinical and ultrasound information during 1 year of follow-up. Multiple imputation was used when outcome based on follow-up was uncertain according to predefined criteria. RESULTS: A total of 8519 patients were recruited at 36 centers between 2012 and 2015. We excluded patients who were already in follow-up at recruitment and all patients from 19 centers that did not fulfil our criteria for good-quality surgical and follow-up data, leaving 4905 patients across 17 centers for statistical analysis. Overall, 3441 (70%) tumors were benign, 978 (20%) malignant and 486 (10%) uncertain. The modified BDs were applicable in 1798/4905 (37%) tumors, of which 1786 (99.3%) were benign. The two-step strategy based on ADNEX without CA125 had an area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.92-0.96). The risk of malignancy was slightly underestimated, but calibration varied between centers. A sensitivity analysis in which we expanded the definition of uncertain outcome resulted in 1419 (29%) tumors with uncertain outcome and an AUC of the two-step strategy without CA125 of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.91-0.95). CONCLUSION: A large proportion of adnexal masses can be classified as benign by the modified BDs. For the remaining masses, the ADNEX model can be used to estimate the risk of malignancy. This two-step strategy is convenient for clinical use. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. ispartof: ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY vol:61 issue:2 pages:231-242 ispartof: location:England status: published

Objective To estimate the diagnostic value of tumor and immune related proteins in the discrimination between benign and malignant adnexal masses, and between different subgroups of tumors. Methods In this exploratory diagnostic study, 254 patients with an adnexal mass scheduled for surgery were consecutively enrolled at the University Hospitals Leuven (128 benign, 42 borderline, 22 stage I, 55 stage II-IV, and 7 secondary metastatic tumors). The quantification of 33 serum proteins was done preoperatively, using multiplex high throughput immunoassays (Luminex) and electrochemiluminescence immuno-assay (ECLIA). We calculated univariable areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (AUCs). To discriminate malignant from benign tumors, multivariable ridge logistic regression with backward elimination was performed, using bootstrapping to validate the resulting AUCs. Results CA125 had the highest univariable AUC to discriminate malignant from benign tumors (0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.79-0.89). Combining CA125 with CA72.4 and HE4 increased the AUC to 0.87. For benign vs borderline tumors, CA125 had the highest univariable AUC (0.74). For borderline vs stage I malignancy, no proteins were promising. For stage I vs II-IV malignancy, CA125, HE4, CA72.4, CA15.3 and LAP had univariable AUCs ≥0.80. Conclusions The results confirm the dominant role of CA125 for identifying malignancy, and suggest that other markers (HE4, CA72.4, CA15.3 and LAP) may help to distinguish between stage I and stage II-IV malignancies. However, further research is needed, also to investigate the added value over clinical and ultrasound predictors of malignancy, focusing on the differentiation between subtypes of malignancy.

Objective To validate externally five approaches to predict ectopic pregnancy (EP) in pregnancies of unknown location (PUL): the M6P and M6NP risk models, the two‐step triage strategy (2ST, which incorporates M6P), the M4 risk model, and beta human chorionic gonadotropin ratio cut‐offs (BhCG‐RC). Design Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study. Setting Eight UK early pregnancy assessment units. Population Women presenting with a PUL and BhCG >25 IU/l. Methods Women were managed using the 2ST protocol: PUL were classified as low risk of EP if presenting progesterone ≤2 nmol/l; the remaining cases returned 2 days later for triage based on M6P. EP risk ≥5% was used to classify PUL as high risk. Missing values were imputed, and predictions for the five approaches were calculated post hoc. We meta‐analysed centre‐specific results. Main outcome measures Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility (decision curve analysis) for predicting EP. Results Of 2899 eligible women, the primary analysis excluded 297 (10%) women who were lost to follow up. The area under the ROC curve for EP was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86–0.91) for M6P, 0.88 (0.86–0.90) for 2ST, 0.86 (0.83–0.88) for M6NP and 0.82 (0.78–0.85) for M4. Sensitivities for EP were 96% (M6P), 94% (2ST), 92% (N6NP), 80% (M4) and 58% (BhCG‐RC); false‐positive rates were 35%, 33%, 39%, 24% and 13%. M6P and 2ST had the best clinical utility and good overall calibration, with modest variability between centres. Conclusions 2ST and M6P performed best for prediction and triage in PUL. Tweetable abstract The M6 model, as part of a two‐step triage strategy, is the best approach to characterise and triage PULs., Tweetable abstract The M6 model, as part of a two‐step triage strategy, is the best approach to characterise and triage PULs.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the ultrasound features of different endometrial and other intracavitary pathologies inpre- and postmenopausal women presenting with abnormal uterine bleeding, using the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology. METHODS: This was a prospective observational multicenter study of consecutive women presenting with abnormal uterine bleeding. Unenhanced sonography with color Doppler and fluid-instillation sonography were performed. Endometrial sampling was performed according to each center's local protocol. The histological endpoints were cancer, atypical endometrial hyperplasia/endometrioid intraepithelial neoplasia (EIN), endometrial atrophy, proliferative or secretory endometrium, endometrial hyperplasia without atypia, endometrial polyp, intracavitary leiomyoma and other. For fluid-instillation sonography, the histological endpoints were endometrial polyp, intracavitary leiomyoma and cancer. For each histological endpoint, we report typical ultrasound features using the IETA terminology. RESULTS: The database consisted of 2856 consecutive women presenting with abnormal uterine bleeding. Unenhanced sonography with color Doppler was performed in all cases and fluid-instillation sonography in 1857. In 2216 women, endometrial histology was available, and these comprised the study population. Median age was 49 years (range, 19-92 years), median parity was 2 (range, 0-10) and median body mass index was 24.9 kg/m2 (range, 16.0-72.1 kg/m2 ). Of the study population, 843 (38.0%) women were postmenopausal. Endometrial polyps were diagnosed in 751 (33.9%) women, intracavitary leiomyomas in 223 (10.1%) and endometrial cancer in 137 (6.2%). None (0% (95% CI, 0.0-5.5%)) of the 66 women with endometrial thickness

OBJECTIVE: To develop a preoperative risk model, using endometrial biopsy results and clinical and ultrasound variables, to predict the individual risk of lymph-node metastases in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: A mixed-effects logistic regression model for prediction of lymph-node metastases was developed in 1501 prospectively included women with endometrial cancer undergoing transvaginal ultrasound examination before surgery, from 16 European centers. Missing data, including missing lymph-node status, were imputed. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model were evaluated using leave-center-out cross validation. The predictive performance of the model was compared with that of risk classification from endometrial biopsy alone (high-risk defined as endometrioid cancer Grade 3/non-endometrioid cancer) or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound (high-risk defined as endometrioid cancer Grade 3/non-endometrioid cancer/deep myometrial invasion/cervical stromal invasion/extrauterine spread). RESULTS: Lymphadenectomy was performed in 691 women, of whom 127 had lymph-node metastases. The model for prediction of lymph-node metastases included the predictors age, duration of abnormal bleeding, endometrial biopsy result, tumor extension and tumor size according to ultrasound and undefined tumor with an unmeasurable endometrium. The model's area under the curve was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68-0.78), the calibration slope was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.79-1.34) and the calibration intercept was 0.06 (95% CI, -0.15 to 0.27). Using a risk threshold for lymph-node metastases of 5% compared with 20%, the model had, respectively, a sensitivity of 98% vs 48% and specificity of 11% vs 80%. The model had higher sensitivity and specificity than did classification as high-risk, according to endometrial biopsy alone (50% vs 35% and 80% vs 77%, respectively) or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound (80% vs 75% and 53% vs 52%, respectively). The model's clinical utility was higher than that of endometrial biopsy alone or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound at any given risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Based on endometrial biopsy results and clinical and ultrasound characteristics, the individual risk of lymph-node metastases in women with endometrial cancer can be estimated reliably before surgery. The model is superior to risk classification by endometrial biopsy alone or in combination with ultrasound. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ispartof: ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY vol:56 issue:3 pages:443-452 ispartof: location:England status: published

Objectives: To investigate and compare post-traumatic stress (PTS), depression and anxiety in women and their partners over a 9-month period following miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy.Methods: This was a prospective cohort study. Consecutive women and their partners were approached in the early pregnancy units of three hospitals in central London. At 1, 3 and 9 months after early pregnancy loss, recruits were e-mailed links to surveys containing the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and the Post-traumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale. The proportion of participants meeting the screening criteria for moderate or severe anxiety or depression and PTS was assessed. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to analyze differences between women and their partners and their evolution over time.Results: In total, 386 partners were approached after the woman in whom the early pregnancy loss had been diagnosed consented to participate, and 192 couples were recruited. All partners were male. Response rates were 60%, 48% and 39% for partners and 78%, 70% and 59% for women, at 1, 3 and 9 months, respectively. Of the partners, 7% met the criteria for PTS at 1 month, 8% at 3 months and 4% at 9 months, compared with 34%, 26% and 21% of women, respectively. Partners also experienced lower rates of moderate/severe anxiety (6% vs 30% at 1 month, 9% vs 25% at 3 months and 6% vs 22% at 9 months) and moderate/severe depression (2% vs 10% at 1 month, 5% vs 8% at 3 months and 1% vs 7% at 9 months). The odds ratios for psychological morbidity in partners vs women after 1 month were 0.02 (95% CI, 0.004-0.12) for PTS, 0.05 (95% CI, 0.01-0.19) for moderate/severe anxiety and 0.15 (95% CI, 0.02-0.96) for moderate/severe depression. Morbidity for each outcome decreased modestly over time, without strong evidence of a different evolution between women and their partners.Conclusions: Some partners report clinically relevant levels of PTS, anxiety and depression after pregnancy loss, though to a far lesser extent than women physically experiencing the loss. (C) 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Objective: To describe the sonographic features of endometrial cancer in relation to tumor stage, grade and histological type, using the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology. Methods: This was a prospective multicenter study of 1714 women with biopsy-confirmed endometrial cancer undergoing standardized transvaginal grayscale and Doppler ultrasound examination according to the IETA study protocol, by experienced ultrasound examiners using high-end ultrasound equipment. Clinical and sonographic data were entered into a web-based database. We assessed how strongly sonographic characteristics, according to IETA, were associated with outcome at hysterectomy, i.e. tumor stage, grade and histological type, using univariable logistic regression and the c-statistic. Results: In total, 1538 women were included in the final analysis. Median age was 65 (range, 27–98) years, median body mass index was 28.4 (range 16–67) kg/m2, 1377 (89.5%) women were postmenopausal and 1296 (84.3%) reported abnormal vaginal bleeding. Grayscale and color Doppler features varied according to grade and stage of tumor. High-risk tumors, compared with low-risk tumors, were less likely to have regular endometrial–myometrial junction (difference of −23%; 95% CI, −27 to −18%), were larger (mean endometrial thickness; difference of +9%; 95% CI, +8 to +11%), and were more likely to have non-uniform echogenicity (difference of +7%; 95% CI, +1 to +13%), a multiple, multifocal vessel pattern (difference of +21%; 95% CI, +16 to +26%) and a moderate or high color score (difference of +22%; 95% CI, +18 to +27%). Conclusion: Grayscale and color Doppler sonographic features are associated with grade and stage of tumor, and differ between high- and low-risk endometrial cancer. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Objective To estimate intra- and interrater agreement and reliability with regard to describing ultrasound images of the endometrium using the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology. Methods Four expert and four non-expert raters assessed videoclips of transvaginal ultrasound examinations of the endometrium obtained from 99 women with postmenopausal bleeding and sonographic endometrial thickness ≥ 4.5 mm but without fluid in the uterine cavity. The following features were rated: endometrial echogenicity, endometrial midline, bright edge, endometrial-myometrial junction, color score, vascular pattern, irregularly branching vessels and color splashes. The color content of the endometrial scan was estimated using a visual analog scale graded from 0 to 100. To estimate intrarater agreement and reliability, the same videoclips were assessed twice with a minimum of 2 months' interval. The raters were blinded to their own results and to those of the other raters. Results Interrater differences in the described prevalence of most IETA variables were substantial, and some variable categories were observed rarely. Specific agreement was poor for variables with many categories. For binary variables, specific agreement was better for absence than for presence of a category. For variables with more than two outcome categories, specific agreement for expert and non-expert raters was best for not-defined endometrial midline (93% and 96%), regular endometrial-myometrial junction (72% and 70%) and three-layer endometrial pattern (67% and 56%). The grayscale ultrasound variable with the best reliability was uniform vs non-uniform echogenicity (multirater kappa (κ), 0.55 for expert and 0.52 for non-expert raters), and the variables with the lowest reliability were appearance of the endometrial-myometrial junction (κ, 0.25 and 0.16) and the nine-category endometrial echogenicity variable (κ, 0.29 and 0.28). The most reliable color Doppler variable was color score (mean weighted κ, 0.77 and 0.69). Intra- and interrater agreement and reliability were similar for experts and non-experts. Conclusions Inter- and intrarater agreement and reliability when using IETA terminology were limited. This may have implications when assessing the association between a particular ultrasound feature and a specific histological diagnosis, because lack of reproducibility reduces the reliability of the association between a feature and the outcome. Future studies should investigate whether using fewer categories of variable or offering practical training could improve agreement and reliability. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

OBJECTIVE: The M6 risk-prediction model was published as part of a two-step protocol using an initial progesterone level of ≤ 2 nmol/L to identify probable failing pregnancies (Step 1) followed by the M6 model (Step 2). The M6 model has been shown to have good triage performance for stratifying women with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) as being at low or high risk of harboring an ectopic pregnancy (EP). This study validated the triage performance of the two-step protocol in clinical practice by evaluating the number of protocol-related adverse events and how effectively patients were triaged. METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter interventional study of 3272 women with a PUL, carried out between January 2015 and January 2017 in four district general hospitals and four university teaching hospitals in the UK. The final pregnancy outcome was defined as: a failed PUL (FPUL), an intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) or an EP (including persistent PUL (PPUL)). FPUL and IUP were grouped as low-risk and EP/PPUL as high-risk PUL. Serum progesterone and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels were measured at presentation in all patients. If the initial progesterone level was ≤ 2 nmol/L, patients were discharged and were asked to have a follow-up urine pregnancy test in 2 weeks to confirm a negative result. If the progesterone level was > 2 nmol/L or a measurement had not been taken, hCG level was measured again at 48 h and results were entered into the M6 model. Patients were managed according to the outcome predicted by the protocol. Those classified as 'low risk, probable FPUL' were advised to perform a urine pregnancy test in 2 weeks and those classified as 'low risk, probable IUP' were invited for a scan a week later. When a woman with a PUL was classified as high risk (i.e. risk of EP ≥ 5%) she was reviewed clinically within 48 h. One center used a progesterone cut-off of ≤ 10 nmol/L and its data were analyzed separately. If the recommended management protocol was not adhered to, this was recorded as a protocol deviation and classified as: unscheduled visit for clinician reason, unscheduled visit for patient reason or incorrect timing of blood test or ultrasound scan. The classifications outlined in the UK Good Clinical Practice (GCP) guidelines were used to evaluate the incidence of adverse events. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Of the 3272 women with a PUL, 2625 were included in the final analysis (317 met the exclusion criteria or were lost to follow-up, while 330 were evaluated using a progesterone cut-off of ≤ 10 nmol/L). Initial progesterone results were available for 2392 (91.1%) patients. In Step 1, 407 (15.5%) patients were classified as low risk (progesterone ≤ 2 nmol/L), of whom seven (1.7%) were ultimately diagnosed with an EP. In 279 of the remaining 2218 women with a PUL, the M6 model was not applied owing to protocol deviation or because the outcome was already known (usually on the basis of an ultrasound scan) before a second hCG reading was taken; of these patients, 30 were diagnosed with an EP. In Step 2, 1038 women with a PUL were classified as low risk, of whom eight (0.8%) had a final outcome of EP. Of 901 women classified as high risk at Step 2, 275 (30.5%) had an EP. Therefore, 275/320 (85.9%) EPs were correctly classified as high risk. Overall, 1445/2625 PUL (55.0%) were classified as low risk, of which 15 (1.0%) were EP. None of these cases resulted in a ruptured EP or significant clinical harm. Sixty-two women participating in the study had an adverse event, but no woman had a serious adverse event as defined in the UK GCP guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown that the two-step protocol incorporating the M6 model effectively triaged the majority of women with a PUL as being at low risk of an EP, minimizing the follow-up required for these patients after just two visits. There were few misclassified EPs and none of these women came to significant clinical harm or suffered a serious adverse clinical event. The two-step protocol incorporating the M6 model is an effective and clinically safe way of rationalizing the management of women with a PUL. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ispartof: ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY vol:55 issue:1 pages:105-114 ispartof: location:England status: published

ispartof: JOURNAL OF CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY vol:116 pages:137-138 ispartof: location:United States status: published

It is widely acknowledged that the predictive performance of clinical prediction models should be studied in patients that were not part of the data in which the model was derived. Out-of-sample performance can be hampered when predictors are measured differently at derivation and external validation. This may occur, for instance, when predictors are measured using different measurement protocols or when tests are produced by different manufacturers. Although such heterogeneity in predictor measurement between derivation and validation data is common, the impact on the out-of-sample performance is not well studied. Using analytical and simulation approaches, we examined out-of-sample performance of prediction models under various scenarios of heterogeneous predictor measurement. These scenarios were defined and clarified using an established taxonomy of measurement error models. The results of our simulations indicate that predictor measurement heterogeneity can induce miscalibration of prediction and affects discrimination and overall predictive accuracy, to extents that the prediction model may no longer be considered clinically useful. The measurement error taxonomy was found to be helpful in identifying and predicting effects of heterogeneous predictor measurements between settings of prediction model derivation and validation. Our work indicates that homogeneity of measurement strategies across settings is of paramount importance in prediction research. ispartof: STATISTICS IN MEDICINE vol:38 issue:18 pages:3444-3459 ispartof: location:England status: published

Background: The last EBCTCG-overview reported, in general, a significant better breast cancer outcome if adjuvant chemotherapy was added to surgery and endocrine therapy in ER-pos breast cancers, but the precise indication for adjuvant chemotherapy in this population remains controversial. We study the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on breast cancer outcome in consecutive patients with an ER-pos HER-2 negative breast cancer treated with adjuvant antihormonal therapy. Methods: Data were collected prospectively from consecutive patients with non-metastatic breast cancer that were primary operated between 2000 and 2012 at the University Hospitals Leuven (Belgium). A Propensity Score (PS) weighted analysis was performed to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE). The primary endpoint was recurrence free interval (RFI). Secondary endpoints were distant recurrence free interval (D-RFI) and breast cancer specific survival (BCSS). Covariates used to generate the propensity score and to include in the PS weighted analysis were age at diagnosis, body mass index, tumor size, grade, pN, lymph vessel invasion, PR, and radiotherapy. Cause-specific hazard models were fitted, using death not from breast cancer as competing risk. Treatment heterogeneity was examined by evaluating interactions of each covariate with adjuvant chemotherapy, using the Bonferroni-Holm method to correct for multiple testing. Results: In the total cohort of 5609 patients, 4282 had a hormone sensitive HER-2 neg breast cancer and 4121 (96.2%) of these received adjuvant antihormonal therapy. Adjuvant chemotherapy was given in 1179/4121 patients (29%). Median follow-up was 8.5 years. Due to very strong differences between patients with and without adjuvant chemotherapy, a restricted PS weighted analysis was used according to a recent recommendation in the statistical literature. This analysis is based on 1750 patients with a PS between 0.1 and 0.9. In this group, 807 (46%) received adjuvant chemotherapy, 211 (12%) observed an event for RFI, 167 (10%) for D-RFI, and 108 (6%) for BCSS. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with better prognosis: the adjusted cumulative incidence of recurrence within 5 years was 9.7% without and 5.3% with adjuvant chemotherapy. The adjusted hazard ratio for RFI was 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.74). There were no strong interactions with adjuvant chemotherapy. Results for D-RFI and BCSS were similar. Conclusion: Based on PS analysis to reduce confounding and chemotherapy indication bias, we observed clear benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy in ER-pos HER-2 negative breast cancers. Citation Format: Van Calster B, Neven P, Wildiers H, Punie K, Jongen L, Han S, Berteloot P, Van Nieuwenhuysen E, Nevelsteen I, Smeets A, Floris G. The effect of adjuvant chemotherapy in a large consecutive series of ER-pos HER-2 negative early breast cancers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2016 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2016 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-14-06.

Objectives A uniform rationalized management protocol for pregnancies of unknown location (PUL) is lacking. We developed a two-step triage protocol to select PUL at high risk of ectopic pregnancy (EP), based on serum progesterone level at presentation (step 1) and the serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) ratio, defined as the ratio of hCG at 48 h to hCG at presentation (step 2). Methods This was a cohort study of 2753 PUL (301 EP), involving a secondary analysis of prospectively and consecutively collected PUL data from two London-based university teaching hospitals. Using a chronological split we used 1449 PUL for development and 1304 for validation. We aimed to assign PUL as low risk with high confidence (high negative predictive value (NPV)) while classifying most EP as high risk (high sensitivity). The first triage step assigned PUL as low risk using a threshold of serum progesterone at presentation. The remaining PUL were triaged using a novel logistic regression risk model based on hCG ratio and initial serum progesterone (second step), defining low risk as an estimated EP risk of

BACKGROUND: The International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) group have developed the ADNEX (The Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa) model to predict the risk that an ovarian mass is benign, borderline, stage I, stages II-IV or metastatic. We aimed to externally validate the ADNEX model in the hands of examiners with varied training and experience. METHODS: This was a multicentre cross-sectional cohort study for diagnostic accuracy. Patients were recruited from three cancer centres in Europe. Patients who underwent transvaginal ultrasonography and had a histological diagnosis of surgically removed tissue were included. The diagnostic performance of the ADNEX model with and without the use of CA125 as a predictor was calculated. RESULTS: Data from 610 women were analysed. The overall prevalence of malignancy was 30%. The area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) for the ADNEX diagnostic performance to differentiate between benign and malignant masses was 0.937 (95% CI: 0.915-0.954) when CA125 was included, and 0.925 (95% CI: 0.902-0.943) when CA125 was excluded. The calibration plots suggest good correspondence between the total predicted risk of malignancy and the observed proportion of malignancies. The model showed good discrimination between the different subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the ADNEX model retains its performance on external validation in the hands of ultrasound examiners with varied training and experience.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 2 August 2016; doi:10.1038/bjc.2016.227 www.bjcancer.com.

Simulation code. (PDF 204 kb)

OBJECTIVE: To assess prospectively the association between pelvic pain, vaginal bleeding, and nausea and vomiting occurring in the first trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of later adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study of consecutive women with confirmed intrauterine singleton pregnancy between 5 and 14 weeks' gestation recruited at Queen Charlotte's & Chelsea Hospital, London, UK, from March 2014 to March 2016. Serial ultrasound scans were performed in the first trimester. Participants completed validated symptom scores for vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, and nausea and vomiting. The key symptom of interest was any pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding during the first trimester. Pregnancies were followed up until the final outcome was known. Antenatal, delivery and neonatal outcomes were obtained from hospital records. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between first-trimester symptoms and pregnancy complications by calculating adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with correction for maternal age. RESULTS: Of 1003 women recruited, 847 pregnancies were included in the final analysis following exclusion of cases due to first-trimester miscarriage (n = 99), termination of pregnancy (n = 20), loss to follow-up (n = 32) or withdrawal from the study (n = 5). Adverse antenatal complications were observed in 166/645 (26%) women with pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester (aOR = 1.79; 95% CI, 1.17-2.76) and in 30/181 (17%) women with no symptoms. Neonatal complications were observed in 66/634 (10%) women with and 11/176 (6%) without pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding (aOR = 1.73; 95% CI, 0.89-3.36). Delivery complications were observed in 402/615 (65%) women with and 110/174 (63%) without pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding during the first trimester (aOR = 1.16; 95% CI, 0.81-1.65). For 18 of 20 individual antenatal complications evaluated, incidence was higher among women with pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding, despite the overall incidences being low. Nausea and vomiting in pregnancy showed little association with adverse pregnancy outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that there is an increased incidence of antenatal complications in women experiencing pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester. This should be considered when advising women attending early-pregnancy units. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ispartof: ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY vol:54 issue:4 pages:530-537 ispartof: location:England status: published

The use of data from multiple studies or centers for the validation of a clinical test or a multivariable prediction model allows researchers to investigate the test's/model's performance in multiple settings and populations. Recently, meta-analytic techniques have been proposed to summarize discrimination and calibration across study populations. Here, we rather consider performance in terms of net benefit, which is a measure of clinical utility that weighs the benefits of true positive classifications against the harms of false positives. We posit that it is important to examine clinical utility across multiple settings of interest. This requires a suitable meta-analysis method, and we propose a Bayesian trivariate random-effects meta-analysis of sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence. Across a range of chosen harm-to-benefit ratios, this provides a summary measure of net benefit, a prediction interval, and an estimate of the probability that the test/model is clinically useful in a new setting. In addition, the prediction interval and probability of usefulness can be calculated conditional on the known prevalence in a new setting. The proposed methods are illustrated by 2 case studies: one on the meta-analysis of published studies on ear thermometry to diagnose fever in children and one on the validation of a multivariable clinical risk prediction model for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in a multicenter dataset. Crucially, in both case studies the clinical utility of the test/model was heterogeneous across settings, limiting its usefulness in practice. This emphasizes that heterogeneity in clinical utility should be assessed before a test/model is routinely implemented. ispartof: Statistics In Medicine vol:37 issue:12 pages:2034-2052 ispartof: location:England status: published

Background: Tamoxifen is commonly used for the treatment of all stages of estrogen receptor (ER) positive breast cancer (BC), the largest group of BC. In postmenopausal women, known endometrial side-effects are cystic appearance, hyperplasia, polyps and endometrial cancer. Tamoxifen is converted through several CYP450 enzymes into the active metabolite endoxifen. Patients with particular single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in those CYP450 enzymes (e.g. CYP2D6) have lower endoxifen concentrations and therefore could experience less benefit from tamoxifen. However, the clinical significance stays controversial in the literature as results remain contradictory. Our primary hypothesis is that women with lower endoxifen levels do not have the typical tamoxifen-induced increase in endometrial thickness. The aim of this study is to test the association between endoxifen concentration and the increase in double endometrial thickness (DET). Patients and methods: CYPTAM-BRUT 3 is a prospective, multicentric study including postmenopausal women with an ER positive BC receiving tamoxifen in the adjuvant setting. Primary objective is the association between serum endoxifen levels and change in DET between baseline and follow-up after 3 - 6 months. Secondary objectives are investigating the relation between serum endoxifen levels and other endometrial changes (i.e. the presence of cysts/polyps), menopausal symptoms assessed with a questionnaire and serum levels of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG). Other objectives are the association between the 'CYP2D6 tamoxifen activity score', based on SNPs and co-medication, and DET, other endometrial changes, FSH and SHBG. The CYPTAM-BRUT 3 study is a sub-study of the CYPTAM study in Leiden, The Netherlands, with survival as primary outcome. Results: 144 women were included in 19 hospitals. There was no significant association found between endoxifen and change in DET (p=0.888), as for the association between endoxifen and the development of cysts or polyps (p=0.208). For the questionnaire items no correlation was found (p≥0.051). Changes of FSH and SHBG were in the range of what would be expected during tamoxifen treatment in the general population and there was no association with endoxifen (p=0.726 and p=0.181). In addition, no association was found between the CYP2D6 TAS score and DET (p=0.613), other endometrial changes (p=0.196), FSH (p=0.976) and SHBG (p=0.900). Conclusion: Our study is one of the first studies that prospectively investigated the relation between tamoxifen metabolization, in correlation with endometrial thickness and SNPs. We can conclude that the typical increase in endometrial thickness seen in a significant proportion of postmenopausal women under tamoxifen cannot be used to predict that those women have a high endoxifen concentration or that women without an increased endometrial thickness have a significantly lower endoxifen concentration. The same conclusions can be made for the other tamoxifen-induced changes as cysts and polyps, menopausal symptoms, FSH and SHBG. It may also apply to tamoxifen efficacy but further prospective studies looking at survival are needed to answer that question. Citation Format: Poppe A, Dieudonné A-S, Lintermans A, Laenen A, Blomme C, Lambrechts D, Wildiers H, Christiaens M-R, Timmerman D, Van Calster B, Vereecke C, Vandeputte G, Fontaine C, Decloedt J, Berteloot P, Depypere H, Joerger M, Dezentjé V, Neven P. CYPTAM-BRUT 3: Endometrial thickness cannot be used as a marker for tamoxifen metabolization in postmenopausal breast cancer patients. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-07-46.

Objectives To compare subjective ultrasound assessment and the ADNEX model with ultrasound-guided tru-cut biopsy to differentiate disseminated primary ovarian cancer from metastatic non-ovarian cancer. Methods This was a prospective study including 143 consecutive women with disseminated malignancy of unknown primary origin, with a pelvic tumor/carcinosis. Women underwent either transvaginal or transrectal ultrasound as well as transabdominal ultrasound examination followed by tru-cut biopsy. The ultrasound examiner assessed tumor morphology, spread in the pelvis and abdomen, and predicted tumor origin as primary ovarian or metastatic using both subjective assessment and the ADNEX model. Histology from tru-cut biopsy served as the gold standard for assessment of diagnostic accuracy. Biopsy adequacy and the complication rate were assessed. Results Tru-cut biopsy was performed transvaginally in 131/143 (92%) women. Two women needed inpatient care (one had abdominal wall hematoma, and one infection). Biopsy resulted in a conclusive diagnosis in 126/143 (88%) women, amongst whom cytoreductive surgery was performed in 30/126 confirming the diagnosis in all cases. Non-ovarian metastatic cancer was found in 37/126 (29%) women and primary ovarian cancer in 89/126 (71%) women. Subjective ultrasound evaluation had a sensitivity of 82% (73/89) and a specificity of 70% (26/37) in predicting primary ovarian cancer. The ADNEX model had an area under the receiver–operating characteristics curve of 0.891 (95% CI, 0.794–0.946) (in women with an ovarian lesion, n = 104). Tumor origin was associated with age, CA 125, previous neoplasia, presence of omental cake and tumor mobility. Conclusions Subjective ultrasound assessment and the ADNEX model can both be used to predict whether a pelvic tumor is metastatic and of non-ovarian origin, indicating the need for tru-cut biopsy, which is associated with very few complications and will provide a conclusive diagnosis in nine out of 10 women. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to investigate the influence of the amount of clustering [intraclass correlation (ICC) = 0%, 5%, or 20%], the number of events per variable (EPV) or candidate predictor (EPV = 5, 10, 20, or 50), and backward variable selection on the performance of prediction models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Researchers frequently combine data from several centers to develop clinical prediction models. In our simulation study, we developed models from clustered training data using multilevel logistic regression and validated them in external data. RESULTS: The amount of clustering was not meaningfully associated with the models' predictive performance. The median calibration slope of models built in samples with EPV = 5 and strong clustering (ICC = 20%) was 0.71. With EPV = 5 and ICC = 0%, it was 0.72. A higher EPV related to an increased performance: the calibration slope was 0.85 at EPV = 10 and ICC = 20% and 0.96 at EPV = 50 and ICC = 20%. Variable selection sometimes led to a substantial relative bias in the estimated predictor effects (up to 118% at EPV = 5), but this had little influence on the model's performance in our simulations. CONCLUSION: We recommend at least 10 EPV to fit prediction models in clustered data using logistic regression. Up to 50 EPV may be needed when variable selection is performed. publisher: Elsevier articletitle: A simulation study of sample size demonstrated the importance of the number of events per variable to develop prediction models in clustered data journaltitle: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.02.002 content_type: article copyright: Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. ispartof: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology vol:68 issue:12 pages:1406-1414 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Clinical risk prediction models are increasingly being developed and validated on multicenter datasets. In this article, we present a comprehensive framework for the evaluation of the predictive performance of prediction models at the center level and the population level, considering population-averaged predictions, center-specific predictions, and predictions assuming an average random center effect. We demonstrated in a simulation study that calibration slopes do not only deviate from one because of over- or underfitting of patterns in the development dataset, but also as a result of the choice of the model (standard versus mixed effects logistic regression), the type of predictions (marginal versus conditional versus assuming an average random effect), and the level of model validation (center versus population). In particular, when data is heavily clustered (ICC 20%), center-specific predictions offer the best predictive performance at the population level and the center level. We recommend that models should reflect the data structure, while the level of model validation should reflect the research question. ispartof: Statistical Methods in Medical Research vol:27 issue:6 pages:1723-1736 ispartof: location:England status: published

ObjectivesTo describe the sonographic features of endometrial cancer in relation to stage, grade, and histological type using the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology. MethodsProspective multicenter study on 1714 women with endometrial cancer undergoing a standardized transvaginal grayscale and Doppler ultrasound examination by an experienced ultrasound examiner using a high-end ultrasound system. Clinical and sonographic data were entered into a web-based protocol. We assessed how strongly sonographic characteristics, according to IETA, were associated to outcome at hysterectomy, i.e. tumor stage, grade, and histological type. ResultsAfter excluding 176 women (no or delayed hysterectomy, final diagnosis other than endometrial cancer, or incomplete data), 1538 women were included in our statistical analysis. Median age was 65 years (range 27–98), and median BMI 28.4 (range 16–67), 1378 (89.7%) women were postmenopausal, and 1296 (84.2%) reported abnormal vaginal bleeding. Grayscale and color Doppler features varied according to grade and stage. High-risk tumors (stage 1A, grade 3 or non-endometrioid or ≥ stage 1B) were less likely to have regular endometrial myometrial border (difference of −23%, 95% CI −27 to −18%), whilst they were larger (mean endometrial thickness; difference of +9 mm, 95% CI +8 to +11 mm), more frequently had non-uniform echogenicity (difference of +10%, 95% CI +5 to +15%), a multiple, multifocal vessel pattern (difference of +21%, 95% CI +16 to +26%), and a moderate or high color score (difference of +22%, 95% CI +18 to +27%), than low-risk tumors. ConclusionGrayscale and color Doppler ultrasound features are associated with grade and stage, and differ between high and low risk endometrial cancer.

Objectives To investigate the efficacy of collagen plugs at reducing the risk of preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) after fetoscopic surgery for congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods This was a single-center cohort study on all consecutive cases undergoing fetoscopic endoluminal tracheal occlusion (FETO) for severe or moderate CDH, between April 2002 and May 2011 (n = 141). Cases either received a collagen plug for sealing the fetal membrane defect after FETO or did not, depending on the operating surgeon. The principal outcome measure was the time from fetal surgery to PPROM, further referred to as ‘latency’. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to investigate the association between collagen plug and latency while adjusting for risk factors for PPROM. Results Of the 141 cases, 54 (38%) received a collagen plug and 87 (62%) did not. Sixty cases experienced PPROM, 26 among cases with and 34 among cases without a plug (48 vs 39%). The hazard ratio of plug use was 1.29 (95% CI, 0.76–2.19), which does not exclude a potentially increased risk for PPROM when a collagen plug is used. For cases with a plug, 24% had PPROM before balloon removal and 24% had PPROM after elective balloon removal. For cases without a plug, these rates were 30 and 9%, respectively. Perinatal outcomes were similar in both groups. Conclusions No evidence was found that collagen plugs reduce the risk of PPROM after FETO for CDH. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Objective To determine whether serum human-epididymis protein-4 (HE4) levels or Risk of Ovarian Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA) scores are useful second-stage tests for tumors thought to be difficult to characterize as benign or malignant on the basis of ultrasound findings by experienced examiners, and to investigate whether adding information on serum HE4 levels or ROMA scores to ultrasound findings improves diagnostic performance. Methods This was a prospective cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy study conducted in a tertiary referral center that enrolled consecutive women with a known adnexal mass scheduled for surgery. Experienced level III examiners classified each mass as certainly or probably benign, difficult to classify, or probably or certainly malignant after preoperative ultrasound examination. Serum HE4 and CA 125 levels were measured before surgery. Results The final database comprised 360 women, of whom 216 (60%) had benign and 144 (40%) had malignant disease. Examiners were highly confident in 196 cases (54%), moderately confident in 135 (38%) and completely uncertain about their diagnosis in 29 (8%) cases. With a sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 70%, subjective assessment outperformed HE4 and ROMA in the subgroup of difficult tumors. Both tests had low discriminatory capacity with poor areas under the receiver–operating characteristics curve of 0.536 (95% CI, 0.302–0.771) and 0.565 (95% CI, 0.294–0.836), respectively. A strategy that incorporates sequential testing of serum HE4 or ROMA scores after transvaginal ultrasonography resulted in a deterioration in overall test performance. Conclusion Measurement of serum HE4 or calculating scores using the ROMA as secondary tests does not seem useful for classifying adnexal tumors after subjective assessment with transvaginal ultrasonography. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Objective Excessive weight gain during pregnancy has an important influence on fetal growth and on weight development in future generations. Design and Methods A prospective cohort study of 325 obese and nonobese Caucasian women with naturally conceived, singleton pregnancies was performed. They were followed up until delivery for maternal weight gain and for fetal growth with ultrasound-based weight estimations and final birth weight. Using cluster analysis distinct profiles of maternal weight gain during pregnancy were obtained. Longitudinal regression analysis was performed to investigate the relationship of the maternal weight gain profile and BMI on fetal growth and final birth weight. Results Cluster analysis revealed four discernable maternal weight gain profiles: 12 cases (3.7%) ended up at their starting weight or decreased in weight (cluster 1), 16 cases (4.9%) who slightly increased in weight (maximum 4 kg) as compared to their initial weight (cluster 2), 114 cases (35.1%) who gained between 4 and 12 kg in weight (cluster 3), and 183 cases (56.3%) who showed the largest weight gain: more than 12 kg (cluster 4). There were statistically significant differences in fetal growth associated with weight gain cluster, which became apparent late in the second trimester and increased toward the end of pregnancy. Maternal BMI and maternal weight gain profile were independent predictors of fetal growth and birth weight. Conclusions Therefore, the conclusion is that the cluster analysis permits to discern four gestational weight gain (GWG) patterns in obese and nonobese subjects and that both maternal BMI and maternal weight gain pattern during pregnancy positively influence fetal growth and birth weight.

Objective To develop a model to predict the success of a trial of vaginal birth after Cesarean section (VBAC) based on sonographic measurements of Cesarean section (CS) scar features, demographic variables and previous obstetric history. Methods We used transvaginal sonography (TVS) to examine the CS scar of 320 consecutive pregnant women. TVS was carried out at 11–13, 19–21 and 34–36 weeks' gestation and prospective measurements of the scar were recorded at each visit according to a defined protocol. A logistic regression model to predict success of VBAC was developed for those patients with a visible scar on ultrasound and only one previous CS. The model was evaluated using bootstrap validation. Results There were 131 women with one previous CS and a visible scar, of whom 10 underwent CS prior to labor and were excluded from analysis. Successful VBAC was achieved in 74/121 (61%) of the remaining cases. The prediction model developed was based on patient age, previous history of VBAC, residual myometrial thickness (RMT) and the change in RMT from the first to the second trimester (ΔRMT). The internally validated area under the receiver–operating characteristics curve was 0.62 when measurements of RMT and ΔRMT were excluded, but 0.94 when scar information was incorporated into the model. Conclusion Ultrasound measurements of CS scar, namely RMT and the change in RMT from the first to the second trimester of pregnancy, when incorporated into a mathematical model, can predict accurately a successful trial of labor in patients with one previous CS. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Background: Correct characterisation of ovarian tumours is critical to optimise patient care. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) logistic regression model (LR2), ultrasound Simple Rules (SR), the Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI) and subjective assessment (SA) for preoperative characterisation of adnexal masses, when ultrasonography is performed by examiners with different background training and experience. Methods: A 2-year prospective multicentre cross-sectional study. Thirty-five level II ultrasound examiners contributed in three UK hospitals. Transvaginal ultrasonography was performed using a standardised approach. The final outcome was the surgical findings and histological diagnosis. To characterise the adnexal masses, the six-variable prediction model (LR2) with a cutoff of 0.1, the RMI with cutoff of 200, ten SR (five rules for malignancy and five rules for benignity) and SA were applied. The area under the curves (AUCs) for performance of LR2 and RMI were calculated. Diagnostic performance measures for all models assessed were sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR−), and the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Results: Nine-hundred and sixty-two women with adnexal masses underwent transvaginal ultrasonography, whereas 255 had surgery. Prevalence of malignancy was 29% (49 primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancers, 18 borderline ovarian tumours, and 7 metastatic tumours). The AUCs for LR2 and RMI for all masses were 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89–0.97) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83–0.94), respectively. In premenopausal women, LR2−RMI difference was 0.09 (95% CI: 0.03–0.15) compared with −0.02 (95% CI: −0.08 to 0.04) in postmenopausal women. For all masses, the DORs for LR2, RMI, SR+SA (using SA when SR inapplicable), SR+MA (assuming malignancy when SR inapplicable), and SA were 62 (95% CI: 27–142), 43 (95% CI: 19–97), 109 (95% CI: 44–274), 66 (95% CI: 27–158), and 70 (95% CI: 30–163), respectively. Conclusion: Overall, the test performance of IOTA prediction models and rules as well as the RMI was maintained in examiners with varying levels of training and experience.

Background Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) frequently lead to the AI-induced musculoskeletal syndrome (AIMSS). Looking into its pathophysiology, 6 months of AI therapy thickens the tendon sheath with intra-articular fluid (IAF) retention and loss of grip strength. We here report 24-month follow-up data. Patients and methods A prospective cohort study of 33 postmenopausal breast cancer patients received adjuvant endocrine therapy; 27 received an AI and 6 received tamoxifen. At baseline, 6 and 24 months patients had a rheumatologic examination, including a grip strength test, and magnetic resonance imaging of both hands and wrists. The primary end point was tenosynovial changes; secondary end points were changes in morning stiffness, grip strength and IAF. Results Twenty-three AI and 5 tamoxifen patients completed all investigations. Between month 6 and 24, IAF further increased in AI users (P = 0.04) but not in tamoxifen users, and grip strength further decreased in both groups. The worsened tenosynovial changes were strongly correlated with a decrease in grip strength. At 24 months, morning stiffness continued to be present in over a third of AI users. Conclusion AIMSS represents a substantial problem in breast cancer patients. It is associated with tenosynovial changes, IAF retention, joint stiffness and loss of grip strength that do not improve with prolonged use.

Objectives To validate externally the performance of the Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa (ADNEX) model and compare this model with other frequently used models in the differentiation between benign and malignant adnexal masses. Methods In this retrospective diagnostic accuracy study, we assessed data collected prospectively from patients with adnexal pathology who underwent real‐time transvaginal or transrectal ultrasound by a single expert ultrasonographer in a tertiary care hospital between July 2011 and July 2015. The presence of a malignancy was determined by subjective assessment and use of four prediction models: the ADNEX model, simple ultrasound‐based rules (simple rules), Logistic Regression model 2 (LR2) and the Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI), of which three different variants were assessed. Pathology was the clinical reference standard. Results In total, 851 consecutive patients underwent ultrasound examination for an adnexal mass. For 326 patients (128 premenopausal and 198 postmenopausal), pathology results were available (211 (64.7%) benign; 115 (35.3%) malignant) and these were included in the analysis. The area under the receiver–operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the ADNEX model for the discrimination between benign and malignant tumors was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89–0.95). AUCs for the subtypes of malignancy (i.e. borderline, Stage I–IV and metastatic adnexal tumors) ranged between 0.60 and 0.90. Only subjective assessment (AUC, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.93–0.98)) was superior to the ADNEX model (P = 0.01) in differentiating malignant from benign tumors. AUCs for the other models were 0.92 (95% CI, 0.89–0.95) for LR2, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.81–0.89) for RMI‐I, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77–0.86) for RMI‐II and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.80–0.88) for RMI‐III. At the proposed cut‐off of ≥ 10%, the ADNEX model had the highest sensitivity (0.98 (95% CI, 0.93–1.00)) but the lowest specificity (0.62 (95% CI, 0.55–0.68)) compared with the other models. Both subjective assessment (sensitivity, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.83–0.95); specificity 0.91 (95% CI, 0.86–0.94)) and the simple rules model with inconclusive cases classified by subjective assessment (sensitivity, 0.89 (95% CI, 0.81–0.94); specificity, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85–0.94)) had lower sensitivity, but their sensitivity and specificity were better balanced. Conclusions Although the test performance of subjective assessment by an expert remains superior, the ADNEX model can help in the differentiation between benign and malignant ovarian tumors. The advantage of the ADNEX model as a polytomous model remains to be shown. © 2016 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Introduction Many national guidelines concerning the management of ovarian cancer currently advocate the risk of malignancy index (RMI) to characterise ovarian pathology. However, other methods, such as subjective assessment, International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) simple ultrasound-based rules (simple rules) and IOTA logistic regression model 2 (LR2) seem to be superior to the RMI. Our objective was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of subjective assessment, simple rules, LR2 and RMI for differentiating benign from malignant adnexal masses prior to surgery. Materials and methods MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL were searched (January 1990–August 2015). Eligibility criteria were prospective diagnostic studies designed to preoperatively predict ovarian cancer in women with an adnexal mass. Results We analysed 47 articles, enrolling 19,674 adnexal tumours; 13,953 (70.9%) benign and 5721 (29.1%) malignant. Subjective assessment by experts performed best with a pooled sensitivity of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92–0.95) and specificity of 0.89 (95% CI 0.86–0.92). Simple rules (classifying inconclusives as malignant) (sensitivity 0.93 [95% CI 0.91–0.95] and specificity 0.80 [95% CI 0.77–0.82]) and LR2 (sensitivity 0.93 [95% CI 0.89–0.95] and specificity 0.84 [95% CI 0.78–0.89]) outperformed RMI (sensitivity 0.75 [95% CI 0.72–0.79], specificity 0.92 [95% CI 0.88–0.94]). A two-step strategy using simple rules, when inconclusive added by subjective assessment, matched test performance of subjective assessment by expert examiners (sensitivity 0.91 [95% CI 0.89–0.93] and specificity 0.91 [95% CI 0.87–0.94]). Conclusions A two-step strategy of simple rules with subjective assessment for inconclusive tumours yielded best results and matched test performance of expert ultrasound examiners. The LR2 model can be used as an alternative if an expert is not available.

Study question What are the adverse outcomes associated with using the M4 model in everyday clinical practice for women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL)? Summary answer There were 17/835 (2.0%) adverse events and no serious adverse events associated with the performance of the M4 model in clinical practice. What is known already The M4 model has previously been shown to stratify women classified as a PUL as at low or high risk of complications with a good level of test performance. The triage performance of the M4 model is better than single measurements of serum progesterone or the hCG ratio (serum hCG at 48 h/hCG at presentation). Study design, size, duration A prospective multi-centre cohort study of 1022 women with a PUL carried out between August 2012 and December 2013 across 2 university teaching hospitals and 1 district general hospital. Participants/materials, setting, methods All women presenting with a PUL to the early pregnancy units of the three hospitals were recruited. The final outcome for PUL was either a failed PUL (FPUL), intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) or ectopic pregnancy (EP) (including persistent PUL (PPUL)), with EP and PPUL considered high-risk PUL. Their hCG results at 0 and 48 h were entered into the M4 model algorithm. If the risk of EP was ≥5%, the PUL was predicted to be high-risk and the participant was asked to re-attend 48 h later for a repeat hCG and transvaginal ultrasound scan by a senior clinician. If the PUL was classified as 'low risk, likely failed PUL', the participant was asked to perform a urinary pregnancy test 2 weeks later. If the PUL was classified as 'low risk, likely intrauterine', the participant was scheduled for a repeat scan in 1 week. Deviations from the management protocol were recorded as either an 'unscheduled visit (participant reason)', 'unscheduled visit (clinician reason)' or 'differences in timing (blood test/ultrasound)'. Adverse events were assessed using definitions outlined in the UK Good Clinical Practice Guidelines' document. Main results and the role of chance A total of 835 (82%) women classified as a PUL were managed according to the M4 model (9 met the exclusion criteria, 69 were lost to follow-up, 109 had no hCG result at 48 h). Of these, 443 (53%) had a final outcome of FPUL, 298 (36%) an IUP and 94 (11%) an EP. The M4 model predicted 70% (585/835) PUL as low risk, of which 568 (97%) were confirmed as FPUL or IUP. Of the 17 EP and PPUL misclassified as low risk, 5 had expectant management, 7 medical management with methotrexate and 5 surgical intervention.Nineteen PUL had an unscheduled visit (participant reason), 38 PUL had an unscheduled visit (clinician reason) and 68 PUL had deviations from protocol due to a difference in timing (blood test/ultrasound).Adverse events were reported in 26 PUL and 1 participant had a serious adverse event. A total of 17/26 (65%) adverse events were misclassifications of a high risk PUL as low risk by the M4 model, while 5/26 (19%) adverse events were related to incorrect clinical decisions. Four of the 26 adverse events (15%) were secondary to unscheduled admissions for pain/bleeding. The serious adverse event was due to an incorrect clinical decision. Limitations, reasons for caution A limitation of the study was that 69/1022 (7%) of PUL were lost to follow-up. A 48 h hCG level was missing for 109/1022 (11%) participants. Wider implications of the findings The low number of adverse events (2.0%) suggests that expectant management of PUL using the M4 prediction model is safe. The model is an effective way of triaging women with a PUL as being at high- and low-risk of complications and rationalizing follow-up. The multi-centre design of the study is more likely to make the performance of the M4 model generalizable in other populations. Study funding/competing interests None. Trial registration number Not applicable.

Models for estimating an individual's risk of having or developing a disease are abundant in the medical literature, yet many do not meet the methodological standards that have been set to maximise generalisability and utility. This paper presents an overview of ten steps from the conception of the study to the implementation of the risk model and discusses common pitfalls. We discuss crucial aspects of study design, data collection, model development and performance evaluation, and discuss how to bring the model to clinical practice. Tweetable abstract We present an overview of ten key steps for the development of risk models and discuss common pitfalls.

BACKGROUND: The five prognostic surrogate phenotypes, defined by the 2011 St Gallen consensus, predict metastatic relapse following early breast cancer treatment (Brouckaert et al Ann Oncol 2012). It is unknown to what extent these surrogate phenotypes defined on the primary tumor predict metastatic survival (MS) in a cohort of consecutive women with metachronous metastases. PATIENTS & METHODS: All 4318 patients with primary operable breast cancer, diagnosed between 01–01-2000 and 31–12-2009 and treated in our center were prospectively entered in our institutional database. We included 345 patients with a (distant) metastatic relapse during their follow-up. We observed metastatic survival as the time between the diagnosis of the relapse and death. Tumor subtype was defined according to the 2011 St Gallen recommendations in 5 groups: luminal A (ER+/HER2−, grade 1–2), luminal B1 (ER+/HER2−, grade 3), luminal B2 or luminal-HER2 (ER+/HER2+), HER2-like (ER−/HER2−) and triple-negative. We focused on the value of the primary tumor subtype as a major prognostic determinant, but also assessed age at diagnosis, tumor size, lymph node involvement, tumor subtype, PR-status, primary detection (screening vs. palpation), histology, adjuvant therapy, distant-metastasis free interval (DMFI), first-line metastatic hormonal therapy, recurrence sites (isolate or multiple) and metastasis detection (clinical vs. biochemical). RESULTS: In our cohort, we recorded a median metastatic survival (MS) of 22.3 months (95% CI: 19.7–25.6) and a 5-year survival probability of 15%. Significant differences in median MS were noted when considering the primary tumor subtype (cf. table). We observed an independent prognostic effect for multiple recurrence sites (HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.37–2.32), first-line metastatic hormonal therapy (HR = 0.30, 95% CI 0.18–0.49), DMFI (HR = 0.92 CI 0.85–0.98) and, finally, primary tumor subtype. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that primary tumor subtype, DMFI, solitary recurrence and first-line metastatic hormonal therapy act as independent prognostic factors in metastatic breast cancer. In order to overcome the biological complexity of metastatic breast cancer, we must appreciate the primary tumor subtype in our therapeutic approach. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-10-12.

Objectives To estimate the ability to discriminate between benign and malignant adnexal masses of different size using: subjective assessment, two International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) logistic regression models (LR1 and LR2), the IOTA simple rules and the risk of malignancy index (RMI). Methods We used a multicenter IOTA database of 2445 patients with at least one adnexal mass, i.e. the database previously used to prospectively validate the diagnostic performance of LR1 and LR2. The masses were categorized into three subgroups according to their largest diameter: small tumors (diameter < 4 cm; n = 396), medium-sized tumors (diameter, 49.9 cm; n = 1457) and large tumors (diameter = 10 cm, n = 592). Subjective assessment, LR1 and LR2, IOTA simple rules and the RMI were applied to each of the three groups. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR+, LR-), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and area under the receiveroperating characteristics curve (AUC) were used to describe diagnostic performance. A moving window technique was applied to estimate the effect of tumor size as a continuous variable on the AUC. The reference standard was the histological diagnosis of the surgically removed adnexal mass. Results The frequency of invasive malignancy was 10% in small tumors, 19% in medium-sized tumors and 40% in large tumors; 11% of the large tumors were borderline tumors vs 3% and 4%, respectively, of the small and medium-sized tumors. The type of benign histology also differed among the three subgroups. For all methods, sensitivity with regard to malignancy was lowest in small tumors (5684% vs 6793% in medium-sized tumors and 7495% in large tumors) while specificity was lowest in large tumors (6087%vs 8395% in medium-sized tumors and 8396% in small tumors ). The DOR and the AUC value were highest in medium-sized tumors and the AUC was largest in tumors with a largest diameter of 711 cm. Conclusion Tumor size affects the performance of subjective assessment, LR1 and LR2, the IOTA simple rules and the RMI in discriminating correctly between benign and malignant adnexal masses. The likely explanation, at least in part, is the difference in histology among tumors of different size. Copyright (C) 2012 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (Less)

Background We studied the stellate ganglion block (SGB) recently suggested for the treatment of severe vasomotor symptoms and sleep disturbances in breast cancer survivors. Following an initial pilot study, which focused on the acceptability and safety of SGB for this important problem, we evaluated its short- and long-term efficacy. Materials and methods Postmenopausal breast cancer survivors with severe vasomotor symptoms resistant to standard nonhormonal pharmacological intervention were eligible. Diaries were used to measure daily hot flash scores (frequency and intensity) and sleep quality (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index) during scheduled visits at baseline, 1, 4, 12 and 24 weeks following the SGB. Efficacy data were analyzed using longitudinal regression models. Results Thirty-four patients participated and none refused the SGB procedure. Most patients received more than one SGB. The pilot study found SGB to be safe. In the main study, hot flash scores were reduced from baseline by 64% [95% confidence interval (CI) -74% to -49%] and 47% (95% CI -62% to -27%) at weeks 1 and 24, respectively. The odds ratio of better sleep quality relative to baseline was 3.4 at week 1 (95% CI 1.6–7.2) and 4.3 at week 24 (95% CI 1.9–9.8). Conclusion In the short term, SGB appears to be an effective treatment with acceptable morbidity for some breast cancer survivors with therapy-resistant vasomotor symptoms and/or sleep disturbances. Although sleep quality was maintained out to 24 weeks the efficacy of SGB for hot flashes was reduced over time. A randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm these findings.

Objective: To compare guidelines from the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG) based on the Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI) with a protocol based on logistic regression model LR2 developed by the International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) group for triaging women with an ovarian mass as low, moderate, or high risk of malignancy. Design and setting Observational diagnostic study conducted between 2005 and 2007 at 21 oncology referral centres, referral centres for ultrasonography and general hospitals. Sample In all, 1938 women undergoing surgery for an ovarian mass. Methods: RCOG guidelines use the RMI to triage women as low (RMI 250) risk. The IOTA protocol uses LR2s estimated probability of malignancy (

We evaluated the implementation of a strict procedure for endometrium biopsy, including pre-sampling ultrasound examination and assessment of the tissue yield during sampling, in 257 consecutive women with abnormal bleeding. The tissue yield was assessed during sampling and scored from 1 to 4. The median endometrial thickness as measured by ultrasound was 5.0 mm, 5.1 mm, 10.0 mm and 18.7 mm for a tissue yield score of 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. The median endometrial thickness at ultrasound and the median tissue yield score was 18.3 mm and score 4 in the endometrial cancer cases, compared with 3.9 mm and score 1, and 14.8 mm and score 3 in the case of endometrial atrophy and hyperplasia, respectively; and 11.5 mm and score 2 in endometrial polyp cases. Overall, 12 cancers were diagnosed. No endometrial cancer was diagnosed during follow-up (median 447 days). A strict office endometrial biopsy procedure contributes to the diagnostic reliability for intracavitary pathology.

Objectives To assess intra- and interobserver agreement of routinely performed measurements – crown–rump length (CRL) and mean gestational sac diameter (MSD) – for assessing the likelihood of miscarriage in the first trimester of pregnancy using transvaginal sonography. Methods A cross-sectional study of CRL and gestational sac measurements in first-trimester pregnancies was conducted in a fetal medicine referral center with a predominantly Caucasian population. Gestational age ranged from 6 to 9 weeks. All patients underwent a transvaginal ultrasound examination using a highresolution ultrasound machine. Two measurements of CRL and measurements of three diameters of the gestational sac were obtained by two observers. Agreement within and between observers for CRL and between observers for MSD was analyzed using 95% prediction intervals, Bland–Altman plots with 95% limits of agreement and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results In total 54 patients were included in the study, with measurements obtained by both observers in 44 of these. Intra- and interobserver ICCs were high for CRL measurements, with values of 0.992 and 0.993 for intraobserver agreement and 0.993 for interobserver agreement. For the MSD, the interobserver ICC was 0.952. Limits of agreement were ± 8.91 and ± 11.37% for intraobserver agreement of CRL and ± 14.64% for interobserver agreement of CRL. For MSD, the interobserver limits of agreement were ± 18.78%. For an MSD measurement of 20 mm by the first observer, the prediction interval for the second observer was 16.8–24.5 mm. For a CRL measurement of 6 mm, the prediction interval for the second observer was 5.4–6.7 mm. Conclusion For dating purposes, there is reasonable reproducibility of CRL measurements using transvaginal ultrasonography at 6–9 weeks’ gestation. When diagnosing miscarriage based on measurements of CRL care must be taken for values close to any decision boundary. The higher interobserver variability that we observed for MSD has implications for the diagnosis of miscarriage based on this measurement in the absence of a visible embryo or yolk sac. Copyright  2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background Our preliminary results showed that tenosynovial changes and decrease in grip strength are associated with the aromatase inhibitor-induced musculoskeletal syndrome (AIMSS). Here, we report the final results and assess the relationship between grip strength and body mass index (BMI). Patients and methods We conducted a prospective study including postmenopausal early breast cancer patients receiving either an aromatase inhibitor (AI) or tamoxifen. Primary end point was change from baseline in tenosynovial abnormalities. Secondary end points were changes from baseline in morning stiffness, intra-articular fluid and grip strength and its association with BMI. Results After 6 months of therapy, 74% [95% confidence interval (CI) 51% to 89%] of AI-treated patients had worsened tenosynovial abnormalities, 56% (95% CI 34% to 75%) had increased intra-articular fluid, and 22% (95% CI 9% to 45%) had increased morning stiffness. Grip strength decreased 8% for the left hand (95% CI 2% to 21%) and 11% for the right (95% CI 4% to 17%). Regression analysis suggested that grip strength decreased more for subjects with high or with low BMI. Conclusions AIMSS is characterized by tenosynovial changes, intra-articular fluid and morning stiffness. We hypothesize that the quadratic association between BMI and loss of grip strength reflects AI-induced changes on the endocrine control of the growth hormone insulin-like growth factor-I pathway.