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BackgroundIn younger individuals, low absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may conceal an increased risk age and relative risk of CVD. Calculation of risk age is proposed as an adjuvant to absolute CVD risk estimation in European guidelines. We aimed to compare the discriminative ability of available risk age models in prediction of CVD in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Secondly, we also evaluated the performance of risk age models in subgroups based on RA disease characteristics.MethodsRA patients aged 30-70 years were included from an international consortium named A Trans-Atlantic Cardiovascular Consortium for Rheumatoid Arthritis (ATACC-RA). Prior CVD and diabetes mellitus were exclusion criteria. The discriminatory ability of specific risk age models was evaluated using c-statistics and their standard errors after calculating time until fatal or non-fatal CVD or last follow-up.ResultsA total of 1974 patients were included in the main analyses, and 144 events were observed during follow-up, the median follow-up being 5.0 years. The risk age models gave highly correlated results, demonstrating R2 values ranging from 0.87 to 0.97. However, risk age estimations differed > 5 years in 15-32% of patients. C-statistics ranged 0.68-0.72 with standard errors of approximately 0.03. Despite certain RA characteristics being associated with low c-indices, standard errors were high. Restricting analysis to European RA patients yielded similar results.ConclusionsThe cardiovascular risk age and vascular age models have comparable performance in predicting CVD in RA patients. The influence of RA disease characteristics on the predictive ability of these prediction models remains inconclusive.

Objectives: Chronic inflammation promotes cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) improve disease activity and cardiovascular disease outcomes. We explored whether bDMARDs influence the impact of disease activity and inflammatory markers on long-term cardiovascular risk in RA., Methods: We studied 4370 participants without cardiovascular disease in a 10-country observational cohort of patients with RA. Endpoints were (1) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) encompassing myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular death; and (2) any ischaemic cardiovascular events (iCVE) including MACE plus revascularisation, angina, transient ischaemic attack and peripheral arterial disease., Results: Over 26 534 patient-years, 239 MACE and 362 iCVE occurred. The interaction between 28-joint Disease Activity Score with C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) and bDMARD use was significant for MACE (p=0.017), suggesting the effect of DAS28-CRP on MACE risk differed among bDMARD users (n=515) and non-users (n=3855). DAS28-CRP (per unit increase) is associated with MACE risk in bDMARD non-users (HR 1.21 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.37)) but not users (HR 0.69 (95% CI 0.40 to 1.20)). The interaction between CRP (per log unit increase) and bDMARD use was also significant for MACE (p=0.011). CRP associated with MACE risk in bDMARD non-users (HR 1.16 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.30)), but not users (HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.36 to 1.17)). No interaction was observed between bDMARD use and DAS28-CRP (p=0.167) or CRP (p=0.237) for iCVE risk., Conclusions: RA activity and inflammatory markers associated with risk of MACE in bDMARD non-users but not users suggesting the possibility of biological-specific benefits locally on arterial wall independently of effects on systemic inflammation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)