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River deltas provide the most productive pastures in Central Asia. Simultaneously they are highly vulnerable to water inflow changes. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the short- and medium-term effect of reduced water inflow on farmers’ performance within the Ili Delta. Primary data were collected through 35 interviews with farmers and additional experts in 2015. Production parameters for three types of individual farms were estimated and entered into a full cost accounting. Contribution margins were calculated for three scenarios: (I) sufficient water inflow (normal situation), (II) decreasing water inflow, and (III) significantly reduced water inflow (worst case). Farmers purchase hay to adapt to pasture production loss due to decreasing water inflow. This more than doubled the variable costs of worst case in comparison to normal situation for small-, medium-, and large-scale type of individual farm. Monte Carlo simulation indicates a risk of 74% (small-scale farm) and 3% (medium-scale farm) that already variable costs will exceed revenues. Despite their high fixed costs, only large-scale individual farms generate positive net farm income from operations in the worst case due to government payments from participation in elite bull program that account for one-third of total revenue.

Common reed (Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. Ex Steud.) is a highly productive wetland plant and a potentially valuable source of renewable biomass worldwide. There is more than 10 million ha of reed area globally, distributed mainly across Eurasia followed by America and Africa. The literature analysis in this paper revealed that Kazakhstan alone harbored ca. 1,600,000–3,000,000 ha of reed area, mostly distributed in the deltas and along the rivers of the country. Herein, we explored the total reed biomass stock of 17 million t year−1 which is potentially available for harvesting in the context of wise use of wetlands. The aim of this paper is to reveal the distribution of reed resource potential in wetland areas of 13 provinces of Kazakhstan and the prospects for its sustainable utilization. Reed can be used as feedstock as an energy source for the production of pellets and biofuels, as lignocellulosic biomass for the production of high strength fibers for novel construction and packaging materials, and innovative polymers for lightweight engineering plastics and adhesive coatings. Thereby, it is unlikely that reed competes for land that otherwise is used for food production.