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3. Naïve Scientists and Conflict Analysis: Learning through Case Studies

Author

Ayres, R. Williams

Abstract

Much of our teaching about conflict relies on theoretical ideas and models that are delivered as finished products. This article explores the supposition that what students need is not already-formed theoretical ideas, but exposure to more real-world cases of conflict from which to build theory. The article presents an experiment in pedagogy: teaching a conflict resolution class using only case studies. This approach was expected to have two benefits: better understanding of the underlying concepts and a significant contribution to students' knowledge about the world. The case-only approach appears to be at least as good as the theory-based version of the class, with some significant side benefits beyond comprehension of the material.

Published
2016
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21. Military expenditure and the growth of the Turkish economy 1952-80

Author

Ayres, R. I., Kennedy, G., and Elkan, W.

Subjects
330, Economics & economic theory
Abstract

Turkey with one of the fastest growing economies in the world but a per capita income only about one seventh of that for the industrialised world has allocated approximately 5 per cent of her gross domestic product to defence since 1952. There is evidence that the level and form of military expenditure has been determined not only by internal and external security factors but also by the ideological function of the military which is closely related to its integration into the sphere of production. There is no evidence of military expenditure having been used as a tool of economic policy to control inflation or unemployment. Turkish military expenditure also needs to be understood in relation to U.S. foreign policy, and in particular through the conditions attached to the flows of military and economic aid. Militarism has been instrumental in shaping the form of industria1isation in Turkey and helped maintain the free umregulated conditions under which foreign capital could operate. One of the consequences of the Turkish path to development has been to create a long term dependency on imports of capital goods and raw materials which ultimately constrained growth in the mid-1970s. Arms production in Turkey cannot be a vehicle for industrialisation since domestic linkages would be limited and one form of dependency would be replaced by another. The links between military expenditure and economic growth are theorised in terms of resource mobilisation and resource diversion which are then estimated by two-stage least squares in a series of equations in which the rate of growth is treated as a function of both exogenous and endogenous variables in a dynamic simultaneous system. The results indicate that the impact of military expenditure is transmitted to the economic structure through both direct and indirect channels and that over the period 1952-76 increases in the military burden have been associated with a lower rate of economic growth.

Published
1981

25. BUSCA de Biomarcadores em Longevidade Humana: Investigação dos Genes Mthfd1l e Serpina3

Author

AYRES, R. F., MARANDUBA, C. M. C., SENA, G. G. S., ERRERA, F. I. V., and PAULA, F.

Subjects
Tempo de vida, Polimorfismo genético, Gene MTHFD1L, gene SER
Abstract

Made available in DSpace on 2019-07-27T02:00:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_13564_Dissertação_Rayanne Ferreira Ayres.pdf: 1396333 bytes, checksum: ad926c41188c20ea83bea1e29466c0ff (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019-02-25 A longevidade humana, tempo que excede a expectativa média de vida da população, é uma característica multifatorial determinada por fatores ambientais e de predisposição genética. Apesar de vários estudos investigarem a influência de componentes ambientais na longevidade, o papel de variantes genéticas nesta característica ainda não está bem esclarecido. Genes que participam do metabolismo de aminoácidos e genes que atuam em processos inflamatórios, como os genes MTHFD1L e SERPINA3, respectivamente, poderiam influenciar nas variações de tempo de vida de indivíduos de uma população. Assim, este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar se existe associação dos polimorfismos de MTHFD1L (rs11754661) e SERPINA3 (rs4934) com a longevidade humana em indivíduos atendidos em um hospital de referência no atendimento de geriatria da Grande Vitória-ES, Brasil. Foram selecionados 436 participantes, divididos em grupos de longevos (acima de 85 anos) e idosos com idade próxima a expectativa de vida da população (entre 70 e 75 anos). A genotipagem foi realizada por PCR em tempo real e os polimorfismos identificados estavam em equilíbrio de Hardy-Weinberg. As análises estatísticas foram realizadas por meio dos testes de Odds Ratio (OR) com Intervalo de Confiança de 95%, χ² e Fisher, com p-value ≤0,05. Não foi observada associação do polimorfismo rs4934 do gene SERPINA3 com a longevidade. Todavia, o alelo G do polimorfismo rs11754661 do gene MTHFD1L se comportou como um alelo de risco para a longevidade humana na população analisada (p=0,027; OR=1,976; IC 95% variando de 1,080 a 3,616), bem como o genótipo GG (p=0,030; OR=2,006; IC 95% variando de 1,070-3,761), enquanto que o genótipo AG atuou como fator de proteção (p=0,041; OR=0,518; IC 95% variando de 0,275 a 0,974). Os resultados sugerem que o polimorfismo rs11754661 do gene MTHFD1L está associado com a longevidade humana na amostra de indivíduos da Grande Vitória-ES, Brasil e que o polimorfismo rs4934 do gene SERPINA3 não está associado com longevidade na amostra avaliada.

Published
2019

36. The UK-PBC Risk Scores: Derivation and Validation of a Scoring System for Long-Term Prediction of End-Stage Liver Disease in Primary Biliary Cholangitis

Author

CARBONE, MARCO, Sharp, S, Flack, S, Paximadas, D, Spiess, K, Adgey, C, Griffiths, L, Lim, R, Trembling, P, Williamson, K, Wareham, N, Aldersley, M, Bathgate, A, Burroughs, A, Heneghan, M, Neuberger, J, Thorburn, D, Hirschfield, G, Cordell, H, Alexander, G, Jones, D, Sandford, R, Mells, G, Kirby, J, Taylor Robinson, S, Ch'Ng, C, Rahman, M, Yapp, T, Sturgess, R, Healey, C, Czajkowski, M, Gunasekera, A, Gyawali, P, Premchand, P, Kapur, K, Marley, R, Foster, G, Watson, A, Dias, A, Subhani, J, Harvey, R, Mccorry, R, Ramanaden, D, Gasem, J, Evans, R, Mathialahan, T, Shorrock, C, Lipscomb, G, Southern, P, Tibble, J, Gorard, D, Palegwala, A, Jones, S, Dawwas, M, Dolwani, S, Prince, M, Foxton, M, Elphick, D, Mitchison, H, Gooding, I, Karmo, M, Saksena, S, Mendall, M, Patel, M, Ede, R, Austin, A, Sayer, J, Hankey, L, Hovell, C, Fisher, N, Carter, M, Koss, K, Piotrowicz, A, Grimley, C, Neal, D, Lim, G, Levi, S, Ala, A, Broad, A, Saeed, A, Wood, G, Brown, J, Wilkinson, M, Gordon, H, Ramage, J, Ridpath, J, Ngatchu, T, Grover, B, Shaukat, S, Shidrawi, R, Abouda, G, Ali, F, Rees, I, Salam, I, Narain, M, Brown, A, Williams, S, Grellier, L, Banim, P, Chilton, A, Curtis, H, Gess, M, Drake, I, Davies, M, Jones, R, Mcnair, A, Srirajaskanthan, R, Pitcher, M, Sen, S, Bird, G, Barnardo, A, Kitchen, P, Yoong, K, Chirag, O, Sivaramakrishnan, N, Macfaul, G, Shah, A, Evans, C, Saha, S, Pollock, K, Bramley, P, Mukhopadhya, A, Fraser, A, Mills, P, Shallcross, C, Campbell, S, Shepherd, A, Dillon, J, Rushbrook, S, Przemioslo, R, Macdonald, C, Metcalf, J, Shmueli, U, Davis, A, Naqvi, A, Lee, T, Ryder, S, Collier, J, Klass, H, Ninkovic, M, Cramp, M, Sharer, N, Aspinall, R, Goggin, P, Ghosh, D, Douds, A, Hoeroldt, B, Booth, J, Williams, E, Hussaini, H, Stableforth, W, Ayres, R, Marshall, E, Mann, S, Lombard, M, Richardson, P, Patanwala, I, Maltby, J, Brookes, M, Mathew, R, Vyas, S, Singhal, S, Gleeson, D, Misra, S, Butterworth, J, George, K, Harding, T, Douglass, A, Panter, S, Shearman, J, Bray, G, Butcher, G, Forton, D, Mclindon, J, Das, D, Cowan, M, Whatley, G, Mandal, A, Gupta, H, Sanghi, P, Jain, S, Pereira, S, Prasad, G, Watts, G, Wright, M, Gordon, F, Unitt, E, Grant, A, Delahooke, T, Higham, A, Brind, A, Cox, M, Ramakrishnan, S, King, A, Collins, C, Whalley, S, Li, A, Fraser, J, Bell, A, Wong, V, Singhal, A, Gee, I, Ang, Y, Ransford, R, Gotto, J, Millson, C, Bowles, J, Thomas, C, Harrison, M, Galaska, R, Kendall, J, Whiteman, J, Lawlor, C, Gray, C, Elliott, K, Mulvaney Jones, C, Hobson, L, Van Duyvenvoorde, G, Loftus, A, Seward, K, Penn, R, Maiden, J, Damant, R, Hails, J, Cloudsdale, R, Silvestre, V, Glenn, S, Dungca, E, Wheatley, N, Doyle, H, Kent, M, Hamilton, C, Braim, D, Wooldridge, H, Abrahams, R, Paton, A, Lancaster, N, Gibbins, A, Hogben, K, Desousa, P, Muscariu, F, Musselwhite, J, Mckay, A, Tan, L, Foale, C, Brighton, J, Flahive, K, Nambela, E, Townshend, P, Ford, C, Holder, S, Palmer, C, Featherstone, J, Nasseri, M, Sadeghian, J, Williams, B, Rolls, S, Hynes, A, Duggan, C, Crossey, M, Stansfield, G, Macnicol, C, Wilkins, J, Wilhelmsen, E, Raymode, P, Lee, H, Durant, E, Bishop, R, Ncube, N, Tripoli, S, Casey, R, Cowley, C, Miller, R, Houghton, K, Ducker, S, Wright, F, Bird, B, Baxter, G, Keggans, J, Hughes, M, Grieve, E, Young, K, Null, D, Ocker, K, Hines, F, Martin, K, Innes, C, Valliani, T, Fairlamb, H, Thornthwaite, S, Eastick, A, Tanqueray, E, Morrison, J, Holbrook, B, Browning, J, Walker, K, Congreave, S, Verheyden, J, Slininger, S, Stafford, L, Denise O'Donnell, N, Ainsworth, M, Lord, S, Kent, L, March, L, Dickson, C, Simpson, D, Longhurst, B, Hayes, M, Shpuza, E, White, N, Besley, S, Pearson, S, Wright, A, Jones, L, Gunter, E, Dewhurst, H, Fouracres, A, Farrington, L, Graves, L, Marriott, S, Leoni, M, Tyrer, D, Dali kemmery, L, Lambourne, V, Green, M, Sirdefield, D, Amor, K, Colley, J, Shinder, B, Jones, J, Mills, M, Carnahan, M, Taylor, N, Boulton, K, Tregonning, J, Brown, C, Clifford, G, Archer, E, Hamilton, M, Curtis, J, Shewan, T, Walsh, S, Warner, K, Netherton, K, Mupudzi, M, Gunson, B, Gitahi, J, Gocher, D, Batham, S, Pateman, H, Desmennu, S, Conder, J, Clement, D, Gallagher, S, Orpe, J, Chan, P, Currie, L, Lynn O'Donohoe, N, Oblak, M, Morgan, L, Quinn, M, Amey, I, Baird, Y, Cotterill, D, Cumlat, L, Winter, L, Greer, S, Spurdle, K, Allison, J, Dyer, S, Sweeting, H, Kordul, J., Carbone, M, Sharp, S, Flack, S, Paximadas, D, Spiess, K, Adgey, C, Griffiths, L, Lim, R, Trembling, P, Williamson, K, Wareham, N, Aldersley, M, Bathgate, A, Burroughs, A, Heneghan, M, Neuberger, J, Thorburn, D, Hirschfield, G, Cordell, H, Alexander, G, Jones, D, Sandford, R, Mells, G, Kirby, J, Taylor Robinson, S, Ch'Ng, C, Rahman, M, Yapp, T, Sturgess, R, Healey, C, Czajkowski, M, Gunasekera, A, Gyawali, P, Premchand, P, Kapur, K, Marley, R, Foster, G, Watson, A, Dias, A, Subhani, J, Harvey, R, Mccorry, R, Ramanaden, D, Gasem, J, Evans, R, Mathialahan, T, Shorrock, C, Lipscomb, G, Southern, P, Tibble, J, Gorard, D, Palegwala, A, Jones, S, Dawwas, M, Dolwani, S, Prince, M, Foxton, M, Elphick, D, Mitchison, H, Gooding, I, Karmo, M, Saksena, S, Mendall, M, Patel, M, Ede, R, Austin, A, Sayer, J, Hankey, L, Hovell, C, Fisher, N, Carter, M, Koss, K, Piotrowicz, A, Grimley, C, Neal, D, Lim, G, Levi, S, Ala, A, Broad, A, Saeed, A, Wood, G, Brown, J, Wilkinson, M, Gordon, H, Ramage, J, Ridpath, J, Ngatchu, T, Grover, B, Shaukat, S, Shidrawi, R, Abouda, G, Ali, F, Rees, I, Salam, I, Narain, M, Brown, A, Williams, S, Grellier, L, Banim, P, Chilton, A, Curtis, H, Gess, M, Drake, I, Davies, M, Jones, R, Mcnair, A, Srirajaskanthan, R, Pitcher, M, Sen, S, Bird, G, Barnardo, A, Kitchen, P, Yoong, K, Chirag, O, Sivaramakrishnan, N, Macfaul, G, Shah, A, Evans, C, Saha, S, Pollock, K, Bramley, P, Mukhopadhya, A, Fraser, A, Mills, P, Shallcross, C, Campbell, S, Shepherd, A, Dillon, J, Rushbrook, S, Przemioslo, R, Macdonald, C, Metcalf, J, Shmueli, U, Davis, A, Naqvi, A, Lee, T, Ryder, S, Collier, J, Klass, H, Ninkovic, M, Cramp, M, Sharer, N, Aspinall, R, Goggin, P, Ghosh, D, Douds, A, Hoeroldt, B, Booth, J, Williams, E, Hussaini, H, Stableforth, W, Ayres, R, Marshall, E, Mann, S, Lombard, M, Richardson, P, Patanwala, I, Maltby, J, Brookes, M, Mathew, R, Vyas, S, Singhal, S, Gleeson, D, Misra, S, Butterworth, J, George, K, Harding, T, Douglass, A, Panter, S, Shearman, J, Bray, G, Butcher, G, Forton, D, Mclindon, J, Das, D, Cowan, M, Whatley, G, Mandal, A, Gupta, H, Sanghi, P, Jain, S, Pereira, S, Prasad, G, Watts, G, Wright, M, Gordon, F, Unitt, E, Grant, A, Delahooke, T, Higham, A, Brind, A, Cox, M, Ramakrishnan, S, King, A, Collins, C, Whalley, S, Li, A, Fraser, J, Bell, A, Wong, V, Singhal, A, Gee, I, Ang, Y, Ransford, R, Gotto, J, Millson, C, Bowles, J, Thomas, C, Harrison, M, Galaska, R, Kendall, J, Whiteman, J, Lawlor, C, Gray, C, Elliott, K, Mulvaney Jones, C, Hobson, L, Van Duyvenvoorde, G, Loftus, A, Seward, K, Penn, R, Maiden, J, Damant, R, Hails, J, Cloudsdale, R, Silvestre, V, Glenn, S, Dungca, E, Wheatley, N, Doyle, H, Kent, M, Hamilton, C, Braim, D, Wooldridge, H, Abrahams, R, Paton, A, Lancaster, N, Gibbins, A, Hogben, K, Desousa, P, Muscariu, F, Musselwhite, J, Mckay, A, Tan, L, Foale, C, Brighton, J, Flahive, K, Nambela, E, Townshend, P, Ford, C, Holder, S, Palmer, C, Featherstone, J, Nasseri, M, Sadeghian, J, Williams, B, Rolls, S, Hynes, A, Duggan, C, Crossey, M, Stansfield, G, Macnicol, C, Wilkins, J, Wilhelmsen, E, Raymode, P, Lee, H, Durant, E, Bishop, R, Ncube, N, Tripoli, S, Casey, R, Cowley, C, Miller, R, Houghton, K, Ducker, S, Wright, F, Bird, B, Baxter, G, Keggans, J, Hughes, M, Grieve, E, Young, K, Null, D, Ocker, K, Hines, F, Martin, K, Innes, C, Valliani, T, Fairlamb, H, Thornthwaite, S, Eastick, A, Tanqueray, E, Morrison, J, Holbrook, B, Browning, J, Walker, K, Congreave, S, Verheyden, J, Slininger, S, Stafford, L, Denise O'Donnell, N, Ainsworth, M, Lord, S, Kent, L, March, L, Dickson, C, Simpson, D, Longhurst, B, Hayes, M, Shpuza, E, White, N, Besley, S, Pearson, S, Wright, A, Jones, L, Gunter, E, Dewhurst, H, Fouracres, A, Farrington, L, Graves, L, Marriott, S, Leoni, M, Tyrer, D, Dali kemmery, L, Lambourne, V, Green, M, Sirdefield, D, Amor, K, Colley, J, Shinder, B, Jones, J, Mills, M, Carnahan, M, Taylor, N, Boulton, K, Tregonning, J, Brown, C, Clifford, G, Archer, E, Hamilton, M, Curtis, J, Shewan, T, Walsh, S, Warner, K, Netherton, K, Mupudzi, M, Gunson, B, Gitahi, J, Gocher, D, Batham, S, Pateman, H, Desmennu, S, Conder, J, Clement, D, Gallagher, S, Orpe, J, Chan, P, Currie, L, Lynn O'Donohoe, N, Oblak, M, Morgan, L, Quinn, M, Amey, I, Baird, Y, Cotterill, D, Cumlat, L, Winter, L, Greer, S, Spurdle, K, Allison, J, Dyer, S, Sweeting, H, and Kordul, J

Subjects
Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Prognostic variable, Cholangitis, Risk Assessment, Article, Biliary disease, End Stage Liver Disease, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Primary biliary cirrhosis, Retrospective Studie, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, Retrospective Studies, Hepatology, business.industry, Proportional hazards model, Cholangiti, Ursodeoxycholic Acid, Retrospective cohort study, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Surgery, Algorithm, 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, Cohort, 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology, Female, business, Risk assessment, Algorithms, Human
Abstract

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)—so-called “treatment response”—strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). Conclusions: The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. (Hepatology 2016;63:930–950)

Published
2015

38. Training Thoughts in a Think Tank

Author

Ayres, R. J.

Abstract

A commentary on two experimental gatherings organized by BACIE to bring together experienced trainers from industry and commerce and to promote an interchange of ideas and problems in specific areas of training. (Author)

Published
1974

47. Factors associated with study attrition in a pilot randomised controlled trial to explore the role of exercise-assisted reduction to stop (EARS) smoking in disadvantaged groups

Author

Thompson, T. P., primary, Greaves, C. J., additional, Ayres, R., additional, Aveyard, P., additional, Warren, F. C., additional, Byng, R., additional, Taylor, R. S., additional, Campbell, J. L., additional, Ussher, M., additional, Michie, S., additional, West, R., additional, and Taylor, A. H., additional

Published
2016
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